Yoan Moncada’s Approach Is Actually Working
On Wednesday, Yoan Moncada hit a grand slam and stole a base. Those were the notable accomplishments for the White Sox’ 22-year-old second baseman in Chicago’s game at Oakland. In a less remarkable but still relevant development, Moncada recorded his 300th plate appearances for the White Sox since his debut with the club last June.
Three years ago today, Moncada had yet to play a professional game in the United States, and while he came with considerable hype and pedigree, his play thus far has mostly lived up to the lofty expectations. Here’s his line with the White Sox since his promotion last season.
| Name | PA | HR | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoan Moncada | 305 | 11 | 12.8 % | 33.8 % | .187 | .331 | .229 | .336 | .416 | 106 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
A combination of good patience, decent power, and solid speed have allowed Moncada to mitigate the effects of his one real weakness (swinging and missing) and permitted him to produce solid numbers. And while we can’t simply double the numbers here to arrive at a full-season forecast for Moncada, our Depth Chart projections nevertheless call for an average offensive performance and roughly three-win season in 2018.
If there’s a number that jumps out, however, it’s the one caused by his aforementioned weakness: Moncada has struck out more than a third of the time with the White Sox overall and in just under 40% of his plate appearances this season. That number is scary high. While Moncada has incredible tools, it could be difficult for him to capitalize on his immense talent if he fails to discern strikes from balls.
Fortunately, at least from the scouting perspective, it doesn’t actually appear to be plate discipline that’s Moncada’s problem. In Kiley McDaniel’s chat earlier this week, he was asked about Moncada’s strikeouts. This was the exchange:
: Does Moncada have bad plate discipline, or just bad bat to ball skills?
: Pitch selection is fine, most of what he does is well above average. Bat control is below average.
Eric Longenhagen said the same thing in his evaluation of Moncada prior to the 2017 season:
His bat control is mediocre right now, and I think this is part of why he has struck out so much (30% of the time at Triple-A, 60% in a short big-league stint) during his career.
It’s worth exploring what this means statistically and to find how similar hitters have fared. Here are Moncada’s plate-discipline numbers during his time with the White Sox relative to those produced by the league in recent years:
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moncada | 24.9 % | 64.6 % | 42.4 % | 55.4 % | 77.4 % | 70.1 % | 44.0 % | 58.4 % | 12.7 % |
| League 2015-17 | 30.3 % | 66.8 % | 46.6 % | 63.9 % | 86.1 % | 78.2 % | 44.8 % | 60.5 % | 10.2 % |
Moncada swings at fewer pitches outside the zone than the average major leaguer. When he does swing, though — whether in or out of the zone — he also misses more than most. That lends credence to McDaniel’s eye. Moncada does a decent job determining the pitches at which he should swing; he just manages to miss a fair amount.
To determine how hitters with similar profiles have fared, I looked at all players with at least 1,000 plate appearances from 2015 to -17 and examined their plate-discipline numbers. First, I looked at the 58 players with swinging-strike rates within two percentage points of Moncada’s 12.7% mark to create a reasonable cohort. Here were those averages.
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moncada | 24.9 % | 64.6 % | 42.4 % | 55.4 % | 77.4 % | 70.1 % | 44.0 % | 58.4 % | 12.7 % |
| Comps* | 31.8 % | 70.7 % | 48.8 % | 59.1 % | 83.4 % | 74.5 % | 43.7 % | 60.6 % | 12.4 % |
Players with swinging-strike rates similar to Moncada tend to swing more often than he does. Even though they have high swinging-strike rates, though, they still make more contact than Moncada.
What’s interesting about Moncada’s out-of-zone mark is that almost no one in the league who swings and misses like Moncada also swings at pitches out of the zone with such little frequency. From 2015 to -17, only one player, Matt Joyce, had an O-Swing% lower than Moncada’s with the White Sox and a similar swinging-strike rate. Among the group of similar whiffers, here are the 12 hitters who swing outside of the strike zone the least.
| O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Joyce | 21.4% | 67.9% | 42.1% | 55.9% | 81.2% | 74.1% | 44.7% | 55.9% | 10.9% |
| George Springer | 24.9% | 72.0% | 46.0% | 61.3% | 80.1% | 74.5% | 44.7% | 60.5% | 11.7% |
| Jason Castro | 25.2% | 68.0% | 45.2% | 53.0% | 78.3% | 70.8% | 46.8% | 59.3% | 13.2% |
| Luis Valbuena | 25.3% | 69.3% | 44.7% | 62.4% | 82.3% | 76.0% | 44.0% | 56.1% | 10.7% |
| Brandon Belt | 25.6% | 78.6% | 47.7% | 60.0% | 82.8% | 75.7% | 41.7% | 57.3% | 11.6% |
| Domingo Santana | 25.6% | 68.2% | 44.5% | 49.2% | 79.4% | 69.8% | 44.4% | 60.7% | 13.5% |
| Justin Upton | 25.7% | 67.0% | 44.3% | 55.8% | 78.3% | 71.2% | 45.2% | 57.4% | 12.7% |
| Mike Napoli | 25.8% | 64.9% | 43.3% | 56.6% | 79.6% | 72.0% | 44.6% | 56.0% | 12.1% |
| Jonathan Villar | 26.3% | 67.3% | 44.9% | 58.4% | 81.2% | 73.9% | 45.3% | 59.4% | 11.7% |
| Joc Pederson | 26.4% | 64.4% | 42.2% | 56.4% | 81.3% | 72.2% | 41.5% | 56.4% | 11.7% |
| Steven Souza Jr. | 27.1% | 70.1% | 46.3% | 51.7% | 77.7% | 69.3% | 44.6% | 64.6% | 14.2% |
| Mark Reynolds | 27.6% | 68.8% | 45.6% | 52.1% | 80.2% | 70.6% | 43.7% | 57.4% | 13.4% |
| AVERAGE | 25.6% | 68.9% | 44.7% | 56.1% | 80.2% | 72.5% | 44.3% | 58.4% | 12.3% |
| Yoan Moncada | 24.9% | 64.6% | 42.4% | 55.4% | 77.4% | 70.1% | 44.0% | 58.4% | 12.7% |
When it comes to plate-discipline numbers and swinging strikes, these are the hitters Yoan Moncada resembles most. If you were looking for the player closest in numbers to what Moncada has done, that’s probably Justin Upton. That seems like good news for Moncada. Here’s how these players have fared in terms of results…
| Name | BB% | K% | ISO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 11.1 | 21.8 | .208 | .272 | .364 | .480 | 132 |
| Brandon Belt | 13.6 | 24.0 | .206 | .268 | .371 | .474 | 131 |
| Justin Upton | 10.2 | 27.5 | .230 | .256 | .336 | .487 | 120 |
| Domingo Santana | 11.6 | 30.9 | .212 | .265 | .358 | .477 | 120 |
| Joc Pederson | 14.0 | 26.6 | .218 | .223 | .345 | .442 | 116 |
| Luis Valbuena | 11.5 | 23.7 | .216 | .226 | .318 | .442 | 108 |
| Steven Souza Jr. | 10.7 | 31.9 | .189 | .238 | .327 | .426 | 107 |
| Matt Joyce | 13.8 | 22.0 | .199 | .225 | .337 | .423 | 107 |
| Jonathan Villar | 9.6 | 27.0 | .153 | .269 | .339 | .421 | 101 |
| Mark Reynolds | 10.6 | 27.8 | .188 | .261 | .342 | .449 | 101 |
| Mike Napoli | 11.5 | 29.7 | .217 | .220 | .317 | .438 | 99 |
| Jason Castro | 10.6 | 29.9 | .156 | .221 | .308 | .377 | 88 |
| AVERAGE | 11.6% | 26.9% | .199 | .245 | .339 | .445 | 111 |
| Yoan Moncada | 12.8 % | 33.8 % | .187 | .229 | .336 | .416 | 106 |
All the hitters here have performed in a very similar fashion in terms of walks and power. The strikeouts are high and the batting averages low. The on-base percentages tend to compensate for the low averages due to walks, though. The combination generally produces an above-average hitter.
It has worked well for Moncada thus far. If he could cut down his strikeouts just a little bit and lock into his somewhat untapped power, his baserunning and at least average defense would turn him into an All-Star. With no improvements, he’s already an above-average regular in the midst of just his age-23 season. If the strikeouts get higher and the BABIP or ISO get lower, Moncada could fall below average, but given his immense talents and performance thus far, improvement seems more likely than staying the same or getting worse. Moncada isn’t all the way there yet, but his potential is starting to show for the White Sox.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Thanks! This is something I’ve been following as he is such an extreme player.
The interesting part of this is that the mainstream perception of Moncada’s performance is that it is disappointing, and it appears it feels that way in the clubhouse as well. Moncada has been visibly frustrated in the dugout lately and has even had kind of a spat with Renteria the other day, who was trying to calm him down.
I wonder what kind of effect this has — where the process, though not finished, appears to be working objectively, but it feels like it isn’t working to the hitter.
Wellllll, that spat had to do with missing a sac squeeze sign more than the strikeouts I think.
Ahhh ok, that makes sense.
Thank you for the analysis. In watching him I actually wonder about his vision but perhaps it is something in his swing mechanics that could be improved with a few minor tweaks. As a Sox fan I am hoping for big things from Moncada.
The Athletic did a profile on Moncada and Tim Anderson preseason. A snippet:
“Yoán Moncada got a present of sorts Thursday morning from White Sox trainer Herm Schneider: a pair of very understated, thin-framed eyeglasses.”
And:
“He don’t need to wear those things,” said Anderson, who has ditched the glasses he wore through the second half last season. “It wasn’t a good experience for me. I always take my hat off and they would always fog up. So I was trying to tell him ‘You don’t need those,’ because I think his vision is kind of like mine, so he won’t need them.”
“because I think his vision is kind of like mine, so he won’t need them.”
Oh, ballplayers.
Please tell me that baseball players aren’t running out there with 20/60 vision and no contact lenses or glasses.
If your vision is kind of like Tim Anderson’s, that’s a very good reason to need glasses.
Career 3% BB/26.7% K
Well, he is at 9.2% BB/22.4% K, so maybe he’s onto something?
But for real, that’s some sort interesting logic.
I’m surprised Sanó didn’t end up on any of these lists. When I think of crazy K numbers with plate discipline that’s immediately who I think of.
His swinging strike rate is on a whole other level at 16%, which also puts his K-rate at an even higher level.
For reference, Kiley sees tools, bat control, and plate discipline as the three different “parts” of the hit tool.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-hit-tool-pt-2/
The question is how well a player can actually improve bat control when they’ve been in MiLB/MLB for 1400 PAs. Kiley later in the series says a guy who has been in the pros for 3 years “is who he is” in most cases, and in Moncada’s case he’s just about at that level (not including what he was doing in Cuba, which was before a relatively long layoff).
I wouldn’t count on the BABIP to regress because of the power he has, but I’m also not really all that convinced he’s going to go beyond Keon Broxton in strikeout department. I get the sense that he could be (maybe already is) the kind of guy Jeff was hoping Keon Broxton would be a couple years ago–a guy who mashes the ball when he gets his bat on it but who doesn’t do it all that much, and who plays a premium defensive position well. That’s a 3-4 win player, and a guy pretty much all but about 5 teams would want instead of their current guy at 2nd.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-keon-broxton-looks-like-the-brewers-best-player/
Here’s the X-Factor that Craig doesn’t talk about though, mostly because it’s not very relevant to the article: Moncada’s baserunning. Check out this leaderboard right here…
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d
That’s Dee Gordon on the basepaths. Is that really a likely outcome? Maybe, maybe not, but that’s where I’m going to guess that’s the most unstable part of his profile so far.
His BABIP shouldn’t regress a lot because as of 4 days ago he had the highest exit velocity in baseball by nearly 3 MPH. He swings and misses a lot, but when he makes contact he hits the ball harder than everyone in baseball. I’m surprised that wasn’t mentioned here.
He’s a lot like Alfonso Soriano but with much better plate discipline (and a better glove. ) So he should get on base often enough to take advantage of his plus speed, unlike Soriano, and maybe those baserunning runs are a sustainable trait.
Which would make him like a second base playing version of Bobby Bonds.
It’s very similar to Alfonso Soriano, but with much better discipline of the disc (and better glove). So I have to go on a fairly regular basis to use speed as opposed to Soriano, and maybe baserunning races have long lasting qualities.
To do this as a second base player, select the version of Bobbi Bonds
This literally just made my day
Longenhagen graded his speed at double-plus, a 70, so it’s more a question of decision-making and aggressiveness than athleticism. To me, the wild card is his defense; he’s shown incredible range as would be expected given the raw speed, but wasn’t the slickest last year. There’s a higher and more easily reached ceiling of value with defense than baserunning; last year, 11 players recorded at least +5 baserunning runs add, but 41 players did that with defense, and there were 10 players whose defensive contributions exceeded that of the top baserunner, Buxton, at +11.8.
He also hits the ball really hard when he makes contact. I’m not sure how long the numbers take to normalize, but according to Statcast’s leader boards, he is third in MLB in average exit velocity and first in hard Hit %.
Like you said, if he could cut down on the strikeouts and increase his contact, he could be a monster and his floor seems to be at least as an above average starter. That kind of offensive potential and production is pretty rare at second base where his defense seems to be at least adequate to not have to move to the outfield. Even if he cuts down his swing a little and doesn’t hit the ball quite so hard his speed will still turn some outs into base hits.
Are there comparable cases of guys who did manage to improve their contact rates without sacrificing exit velocity?
Kris bryant did. Sacrificed a little bit of EV (and LA) but still hits it hard with a lot better K rate
And he got worse for it… Soooo
He did? Please explain exactly how.
Try explain this to White Sox twitter. They’ve already declared him a bust.
What? The Chicago White Sox declared one of their players a bust?
White Sox Twitter = fans of the White sox on Twitter. I apologize if that was unclear.
Chicago White Sox
@whitesox
9 hours ago
@ymoncada19 is a bust.
8:56 am – 21 Apr 2018
He looks more like Souza (almost carbon-copy) than Upton to me in the data that Craig offers. Albies looks the best of his co-hort and Moncada the worst hitter, though his defense should put him ahead of Devers & Benintendi and maybe Swanson in fWAR.
How about we give Moncada, Devers, and Albies a full year of MLB at bats before we compare them to Benintendi and Swanson?
We could wait for their careers to finish, but I thought it would be interesting to see how the top-5 position player prospects pre-2017 are doing now.
And cherry-pick a difference in 2018 fWAR of 0.2.
Whatever rocks your boat, I guess.
I think I’ll go with Benintendi or Albies on those numbers. Call me premature.
It’s not like Swanson (<800 career PA) and Benintendi (<600 career PA) have put up very significant bodies of work. Trying to rank any of the five against each other is extremely speculative.
Also this is incredibly misleading without AB’s or games played (for context Devers and Albies played 1/3 of a season versus Benintendi and Swanson who played complete seasons. Oh and what list were you looking at that had albies as a top 5 prospect. I dont recall seeing him on anyones top 15 last year
The BOARD. #11 on Eric’s 2017 prospect list. (You can knock me for leaving out guys like Bregman, Ray, Judge, Bellinger, etc.)
Feel free to make your own table and share it.
awesome article! thanks craig
I think his strikeouts will go down. His batting eye is actually pretty good, he should be able to have lower strikeouts even at his bad contact rate.
It may be right that Moncada has an issue with “bat control,” something that feels a bit nebulous. Just watching him, though, it seems as if he has a very undeveloped mental approach at the plate. He has tremendous feel for the strike zone, but he doesn’t show much feel at all in terms of which pitches he should be looking for, what pitch he should be getting in a given situation, etc.
He gets so surprised that he can’t even swing fairly often. Perhaps with better bat control he would convert some of his milder surprise into contact, but I suspect that if he gets his mind right — that is, he doesn’t allow the strikeouts to bother him so much that he regresses — he should ultimately start making more contact on the basis of understanding how he’s being pitched.
I agree to an extent. That being said, he is only 22 years old, so it’s hard to fault him for having an undeveloped mental approach. Hopefully that’s something that the coaches and Abeu can help him with over the next couple years.
I actually think it is a bad sign that he whiffs with solid plate discipline. Plate discipline is not easy to fix but bat control and misses in the zone might be a bigger concern.
There is room to grow and the walks lift the floor some (like with c. Davis) but still super high k guys don’t tend to have the longest careers.
if he can lower Ks to mid 20s he can be a beast but if he is chris carter with speed and defense that is not terrible either.
Dave Cameron made almost exactly that point about Schwarber’s hitting and in-zone contact percent a couple years ago – https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/
The context of the player’s overall value is obviously quite a bit different, as you note. As a second baseman with positive baserunning value and at least the potential for positive defensive value, Moncada doesn’t need to be a great hitter to still be a very valuable overall player: he could still be a very valuable player as even a “good but not great” hitter.
makes you wonder why the league doesn’t just fill the strikezone if his contact ability is so bad, especially with breaking pitches. you might give up a couple dingers, but his OBP would plummet.
Well he can hit dingers. But I also think pitchers are too passive on some low contact power hitters. Adam Dunn in his .160 with 10 homers year still walked a ton.
I would say make him hit it until he shows you something but of course no pitcher wants to be the guy giving up a 3 run homer.
It turns out throwing a ball accurately is hard…
I’ll second bananas point, and add some context to that:
– The numbers in the post still show Moncada making contact on almost exactly 50% of pitches thrown in the strike zone (64.6% Z-Swing % multiplied by 77.4% Z-Contact %).
– When Moncada does make contact and put the ball in play, he looks to make solid contact. His Fangraphs page shows a 38.5% hard contact percent so far in his career and only 11.8% soft contact.
– And all of these results that we’ve seen so far are in the context of how pitchers have pitched Moncada to date: only 44.0% of pitches in the zone (as noted in the post) and seeing a total of about 40% sliders, curveballs, and change-ups (per the information at his Fangraphs page). In other words, Moncada might well make more contact, and continue generally to hit the ball pretty hard when he does make contact, if pitchers shifted to an approach of pounding the strike zone with a significantly higher percentage of fastballs.
I’ve been tracking him all year, and I’ve totally noticed this, would have been nice if you could have delved even deeper, and compared his right and left profiles…man if this kid could just get a little more contact against LHPs he would be a beast right now.
Interesting stuff! I particularly enjoyed the explanation of the difference between “pitch selection” versus bat-to-ball skills. I hadn’t thought of it that way before, but watching Brandon Belt for years it makes 100% sense. He’s amazing at pitch selection but not great at making contact, so he ends up with high walk and strikeout rates.
I guess if one wanted to quantify these things separately, Z-Swing minus O-Swing would serve as a good way to gauge “pitch selection” skill? And “bat-to-ball-skills” would be basically just Contact%…
Having watched Moncada a lot, I think a large part of his problem is actually passivity, letting very hittable pitches go by early in the count. All hitters are significantly better if a plate appearance starts 1-0 instead of 0-1, but so far the difference for him has been starker.
League 2015-17 wRC+ through count 1-0: 126
League 2015-17 wRC+ through count 0-1: 65
Moncada 2017-18 wRC+ through count 1-0: 150
Moncada 2017-18 wRC+ through count 0-1: 48
Maybe looking to ambush pitchers early in at-bats is part of the key for him to elevate his hitting.
Absolutely agree. I can’t recall any other hitter letting so many fastballs go right down the middle of the plate to start an at-bat. I can appreciate his selectivity and patience, but at some point, he has to stop letting pitchers take advantage of him. I always find myself asking – “What pitch was he looking for?” And many times it feels like he’s just taking the pitch without any thought of location or pitch type.
I agree completely.
I believe there’s a psychological barrier to batting leadoff, in that guys hitting in that spot tend to act passively and not swing until there is a strike on them.
If I were Renteria, I’d consider telling Moncada not to concern himself with the fact that he’s hitting leadoff, and look for opportunities to crush grooved pitches, even on a 0-0 count. Maximize that incredible exit velocity and hard-hit %.
But I would leave him in the leadoff spot for now – he clearly has the plate discipline and speed, and it maximizes his number of plate appearances which can only aid his development.
Random question: is this an issue with eye sight? Maybe not, since he has good strike zone recognition. For fantasy purposes, I’m always curious with who gets LASIK as another variable for possible improvement.