Yordan Alvarez Is Getting Close to a Triple Crown
A couple of months ago, I wrote about Yordan Alvarez’s Triple Crown chances. Time hasn’t been cruel in this case, and his Triple Crown bid looks even stronger now than it did then. Since I’ve gotten several requests for updates, it made sense to do a quick InstaGraphs post on the Triple Crown race probabilities. There’s a slight change for the probability charts you’ll see below. In order to make the percentages in the individual statistic tables add up to a clean 100%, I did not allow for ZiPS to include ties atop its simulated leaderboards when I ran the projections for that June 8 piece. In the latest run, I’ve factored in ties and expressed them in the tables as multiple players winning.
Back in June, Alvarez was second in the American League in batting average, looking up at Rays DH Yandy Díaz. Díaz continued to hit in June, but a .213 July knocked him out of the top spot, and he’s now 24 points behind Alvarez. Most of the other batting title contenders from June have also seen their averages decline, while Alvarez’s mark has actually increased, going from .316 to .322 entering play Monday. Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson has snuck into the second spot, with Díaz down to third and 22 points of average below the Astros slugger. Both Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.284) and Tigers rookie infielder Kevin McGonigle (.286) are very dangerous hitters and could go on a heater at any moment to make things interesting, but Alvarez leads them by over 30 points right now, and at this point in the season, it’s unlikely that they will catch him. Alvarez has also hit the required minimum number of plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, so no hitless at-bats would need to be added to get him to the 502-PA threshold, meaning a season-ending injury would freeze him at .322.
| Player | BA Leader |
|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 88.5% |
| Chandler Simpson | 5.3% |
| Yandy Díaz | 4.9% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5% |
| Kevin McGonigle | 0.4% |
| Field | 0.4% |
Alvarez (86) holds the RBI lead by six, so a first-place finish here isn’t guaranteed, but it still leaves him in an incredibly strong position. Ben Rice is 11 behind now, in part because the Yankees have put fewer men on base in front of him these last few months without three-time MVP Aaron Judge in their lineup. Meanwhile, reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz, who is currently on the IL with a strained right thumb, has fallen to 17 off the lead. A good chunk of the remaining risk to Alvarez’s RBI crown chances comes from a potential injury; even a minimum IL visit for him could leave Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (75) or Tigers catcher Dillon Dingler (80) with room to swoop in.
| Player | RBI Leader |
|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 93.3% |
| Pete Alonso | 3.2% |
| Dillon Dingler | 2.4% |
| Junior Caminero | 2.3% |
| Ben Rice | 2.2% |
| Field | 2.0% |
The home run title is basically a three-player race at this point between Alvarez (35), Caminero (33), and Rice (32). Of the other four players in the top five as of June, three missed serious time due to injury and fell out of contention: Munetaka Murakami (26), Byron Buxton (25), and Judge (17). With Caminero and Rice hot on Alvarez’s heels, this category is going to be the most difficult one for him to win.
| Player | HR Leader |
|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | 69.8% |
| Junior Caminero | 40.0% |
| Ben Rice | 17.1% |
| Field | 0.0% |
Alvarez’s Triple Crown probability is nearly the same as his odds to lead the league in home runs at this point; if he takes the home run crown, he almost certainly will have played well enough to hang onto the RBI lead and secure the batting title, too. ZiPS projects Alvarez now as having nearly two-in-three odds (66.5%) to win the AL Triple Crown.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
What’s the deal with cumulative hr probability over 100%?
Presumably it’s the ties that are described in the first paragraph
Multiple players could conceivably tie for the homerun lead
I think that’s with ties included.
Solid! Thanks all for the deets!
Are we going to have another disagreement over whether a one-dimensional player is actually the MVP like the one in 2012 when Miguel Cabrera, who was a below average 3rd baseman that year, had a Triple Crown season but the SABR crowd screamed bloody murder that Mike Trout deserved the award? IMHO the Triple Crown is such a significant achievement that it is sufficient, in and of itself, to warrant the award but Trout had a far stronger argument for his selection that season than any player here in 2026 and Alvarez has already locked it up.
The idea that a player can’t win the MVP because he is “one dimensional” is not a SABR crowd argument. In fact, I’d say it’s the opposite, old-school types that have historically categorically dismissed the idea that a DH could deserve the MVP award.
Past that, passing on the triple crown winner for MVP isn’t a new-age idea either. Surely of all people you must know that.
Ted Williams won 2 triple crown awards and was not the MVP either season.
He also hit 0.406 and didn’t win the MVP.
Voters used to be real weird.
Being on a winning team mattered a lot in those days and Joe DiMaggio, who didn’t even have a good year in 1947, just happened to be playing in the Bronx, NY.
Ted Williams was also the Albert Belle of his time, going out of his way to antagonize the press that votes on such things.
The Boston press in those days were a bunch of just the type of old school writers that you would imagine. The leader of the pack was Dave Egan, called the Colonel, who was known to be a raging drunk. Ted eventually rebelled against the slings and arrows that were thrown at him. He was far from being surly and nothing like Albert Belle.
I think it is the other way around. Until recently the award was almost exclusively given to an offensive player based on old school statistics which is why there was such an uproar over Cabrera, the classic old school MVP candidate, winning the award over the multi-faceted Trout who epitomizes basing performance on the modern concept of WAR which was just gaining traction in 2012..
Except when it wasn’t. Jimmy Rollins won over Matt Holliday for instance. Honestly the biggest determining factor for the MVP for most of history was “narrative.” Voters frequently liked to give it to catchers who were generally never the best offensive players. Cabrera in 2012 became just a childish tantrum for luddites who’d seen the game pass them by.
Couldn’t let that pass: of the last 160 MVPs since 1946, 8 catchers have won MVP a total of 12 times. Since Munson won in 1976, there have only been 3.
So let’s not get carried away here. Heck, 4 relief pitchers have won MVP since 1946.
It feels a bit disingenuous to worry about voting in 2012 compared to 2026. The average voter is far more enlightened than they were back then. As for 2026, Dillon Dingler will certainly have a reasonable case for MVP if he finishes the season with the lead in WAR amongst AL players (especially if the Tigers come back and win the AL Central).
What are the odds for an MLB triple crown rather than just an AL triple crown?
I’m curious about that number as well, but it’s going to be pretty low. The NL leaders basically tie him in BA and HR, and he’s behind 3 in RBI.
Not nearly as good.
Luis Arraez is hitting .320 and Otto Lopez .318.
CJ Abrams (89) and Sal Stewart (87) both have more RBI, and Jordan Walker has 83.
Kyle Schwarber also has 35 HR, with Matt Olson and Hunter Goodman both sitting on 34.
I hope he gets it & even more of the national recognition he deserves–and it’d be fun to see a debate about Dingler’s candidacy in light of the Raleigh-catcher-penalty conversations last year.
Raleigh didn’t get it last year, and he had the 60 HR going for him.
Dingler and Alvarez is currently basically a tie in fWAR, and Alvarez and McGonigle in bWAR (Alvarez is ahead in both, but by too little to matter).
If that holds, and Alvarez gets the AL tripple crown, then I think Alvarez gets it in a walk. Highest WAR (or effective tie if he slips slightly) by both measures, plus the triple crown would be more than enough.
embarrassing for everybody involved that this is even possible