Archive for 2008

Man, having total win value numbers on the site is fun. The things you can find are endless. For instance, did you know that in 2002, Neifi Perez was worth 3.5 wins less than a replacement level player. Three and a half wins! Seriously, check it out.

The Royals made him their everyday shortstop and gave him 585 plate appearances. He rewarded them with a .236/.260/.303 line, which translates to a .243 wOBA, or 40 runs below an average hitter in that season. That’s really bad.

Of course, the Royals were paying Perez for his glove, not his bat. Unfortunately, he wasn’t too hot with that, either, posting a -12 UZR at shortstop and a -1.2 UZR at second base that season. He would have had to been Ozzie Smith with the glove to offset his horrendous offensive performance, but instead, he was more like Ozzie Canseco defensively, and that’s not a good combination.

Neifi Perez‘s performance in 2002 cost the Royals three and a half wins beyond just what fielding a league minimum, Triple-A shortstop instead. The going per-win rate in 2002 was $2.6 million, so Neifi Perez’s value was a staggering negative nine million. Oh, and the Royals paid him $4.1 million that year. Total loss – $13 million.

The Royals had a $47 million payroll in 2002. By employing Neifi Perez, they lowered their effective payroll to $34 million, because by having Perez on the roster, they needed to allocate $13 million just to get back to zero.

That’s a bad season right there.

It has been a relatively quiet winter for the Chicago Cubs organization. Aside from bringing in a couple of complementary players, including reliever Kevin Gregg and outfielder Joey Gathright, the organization has been operating in a reserved manner – although retaining free agent starter Ryan Dempster was no small feat. The club made some much smaller waves when it added three pitching prospects – Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg and Marcos Mateo – to the 40-man roster early on in the off-season.

Drafted out of high school, Atkins has moved up the organization’s ladder relatively quietly. The right-hander has put up some good won-loss numbers, having gone 39-19 since 2006 – as well as 17-7 in 28 starts split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2008. However, his other numbers are not quite as impressive, including his FIP, which was 5.70 in 10 Triple-A starts in 2008. His K-BB ratio was also a modest 1.91, along with a walk rate of 3.81 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.29 K/9. Atkins’ repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, a curveball and a change-up – and he projects as more of a bottom-of-the-rotation starter despite his big win totals.

Berg is your typical frustrating right-hander. He throws a hard, sinking fastball that tops out around 94 mph, but he fails to strikeout as many batters as he should and the walks continue to be an issue. In 90.1 Triple-A innings in 2008, Berg posted rates of 4.78 BB/9 and just 4.88 K/9. That strikeout rate was his highest one since 2006 when he managed to strike out 6.42 batters per nine innings in High-A ball. Along with sharpening his command, Berg needs to improve his secondary pitches so batters do not sit on his fastball. The 24-year-old hurler has played around with both a slider and a curveball, favoring the former for much of 2008 with mixed results.

Mateo has the farthest climb to make up the organization’s ladder, as he spent much of 2008 in High-A ball. The right-handed reliever was originally acquired from the Cincinnati Reds organization in 2007 for minor league outfielder Buck Coats (now in the Blue Jays organization). In 2008, Mateo split his time between the starting rotation and the bullpen and allowed 87 hits in 88.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 2.95 BB/9 and 6.62 K/9. Mateo spent the season working on developing a change-up to go with his 90-94 mph fastball and slider. Despite making some strides in 2008, he still projects as a MLB set-up man.

With Kevin Cash signing a minor league deal with the New York Yankees (certain to embark more gamesmanship talk than the move merits) and Jason Varitek hanging in limbo, the Red Sox will need to find two catchers in a rather weak catching market. Unlike most teams, Boston’s reserve catcher does not simply play on random or in day games following night games. Instead, the back-up catcher for the past few seasons is simply Tim Wakefield’s caddy. That means the Red Sox are looking for a quality starter and a back up with either experience dealing with knucklers or a willingness and aptitude to do so.

It seems likely that George Kottaras, perhaps best known for being the return on David Wells, will be the Sox reserve backstop in 2009. An offensively gifted catcher, Kottaras produced 7.6 wRAA for Pawtucket last season, and throughout his career is usually around league average. Next year’s strikeout rates could look ugly, but Kottaras does a decent job of drawing walks, which helps to offset some of the sting. As for actually catching, Kottaras looks awful. In 70 games with Pawtucket Kottaras threw out ~19% of baserunners, or 15 of 80 and had 10 passed balls. It’s worth noting that Kottaras did catch a knuckleballer in Pawtucket by the name of Charlie Zink. While it would be easy to blame that connection on Kottaras poor numbers, Kottaras body of work speaks against the notion that Zink was the catalyst for defensive ineptitude.

If Kottaras is the back-up, who is the starter? The Elias Sports Bureau all but guaranteed Jason Varitek’s career would end in a Red Sox uniform when their compensatory system crowned him as a Type-A free agent. Varitek’s not getting any younger, and if you recall, was pitiful last season. Flashing a low line drive rate while walking less and whiffing more. Fans and pundits alike will talk up Varitek’s game calling abilities along with intangibles immeasurable. Denying that such attributes exist is foolhardy; instead we’ll assume the effects are marginal until proven otherwise.

Of course, there’s also the loyalty aspect between the two sides. When Boston traded Heathcliff Slocumb to the Seattle Mariners for Derek Lowe and the 25-year-old Varitek in 1997, they had no idea a minor league catcher without a great track record of success would turn into a stalwart through a decade and two World Series championship teams. To all of those who would say the Sox owe it to Varitek, I would remind you that the Sox should be committed first and foremost to winning. Sometimes to keep that commitment, emotions must be placed aside. Varitek’s performances have yet to reach the point where it hurts the Red Sox by simply playing (1.3 WAR in 2008, three-year average of ~1.8) but he’s nearing the age where a total collapse is not unexpected.

Finding a worthwhile catcher on the free agent market is tough as usual. A name that leaps off the list in terms of low-risk medium-reward is Josh Bard. The former Sox, Bard is an interesting buy-low candidate, in large part due to bad luck. A .230 batting average on balls in play and 21.6% line drives, don’t gel whatsoever. Bard’s walk and strikeout rates remained static to his career averages, and unlike last time, catching a knuckleball will not be in the job description. Over the last three seasons, Bard’s average WAR is higher than Varitek’s, albeit in fewer plate appearances.

The other option for Boston is to acquire a catcher via trade. Texas Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the best longevity-pleasing option around. Whether the Red Sox are willing to part with the price associated with the former top prospect, (likely one of the Buccholz/Bowden/Masterson trio) is to be seen. Saltalamacchia struck out 37.4% last season, yet still found a way to walk enough to maintain a decent on-base percentage. The power shown in the minors should come soon, even if the defense remains shoddy. Saltalamacchia is only expendable because of the Rangers young studded catching surplus, the equivalent of running a gun shop during the zombie apocalypse.

Given Boston’s proficiency in managing their roster correctly, you almost have to expect the Sox to upgrade behind the dish heading into next season.

For those unaware, Fangraphs unveiled a new section on the player pages today. The section takes all of the dollar valuation components we have manually calculated, harnesses the stats, and outputs wins above replacement level as well as the player’s fair market value salary based on his production.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, their first since 1980. Much of the attention garnered by the team went in the direction of superstars Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, former MVP winners Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, and the 41-41 closer Brad Lidge. While all five of these players deserved some form of recognition for the success of the team, a few other players contributed a good amount. These players made their contributions under the radar, though, and prior to the post-season were not even household names. Guys like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino fit this bill.

Werth was a former first-round draft pick of the Orioles in 1997, but did not truly find a home until 2007. After health problems while playing for the Blue Jays and Dodgers limited his availability and production, the LA bunch cut ties with Werth following the 2006 campaign, one that he completely missed due to injuries. Pat Gillick, who drafted Werth while helming the Orioles, quickly brought him to the Phillies.

Still under control, Werth signed a 1-yr deal worth $850,000. With the going rate of $4.1 mil/win in 2007, Gillick’s deal valued Werth as a +2 run, +0.2 win player. In 304 plate appearances that year, Werth put together an impressive .298/.404/.459 line, good for a .385 wOBA. His production benefited from a regression-bound .391 BABIP, but Werth’s offense resulted in +11.7 runs above average.

Defensively, he proved stellar as well, with a UZR rating of +11.5 runs. Though he failed to qualify for the overall leaderboards, this defensive rating ranked fifth in the senior circuit amongst anyone with 550+ innings played in the entire outfield. All told, after adjustments are taken into account, Werth’s worth was +2.8 wins. If he had signed a contract that valued his production appropriately, the terms would be 1-yr/$11.6 mil.

In 2008, the BABIP plummeted to .327, resulting in a still productive but different slash line of .273/.363/.498. Werth lost some ability to reach base, but made up for it with an increase in power. Because of the increased output elsewhere, his wOBA remained virtually the same, at .382. The biggest difference, however, came in the form of playing time. Werth partook in 134 games last season, amassing 482 PA in the process.

His offensive production almost doubled to +21.6 runs above average. Werth also produced another fantastic season with the glove, putting together a UZR rating of +15.8 runs in the outfield. Among outfielders with at least 950 innings played, this ranks fifth in the entire sport, and second in the senior circuit to just Randy Winn.

In 2008, Jayson Werth became a +4.9 win player. 4.9 wins! Mark Teixeira’s projection for next season calls for something like +5.1 wins. Werth had re-signed for a 1-yr/$1.7 mil contract that doubled his previous season’s salary, but ended up being worth much more money than that. If he signed for his fair market value, the deal would have been closer to $22 mil.

Moving forward, his 2009 projections call for a .375 wOBA, +20 offensive runs, +12 defensive runs, and after adjustments, +43 value runs. This converts to approximately +4.15 wins, and $20.8 mil.

Werth is one of many arbitration-eligible members of the Phillies, and will likely see his salary bumped to around $4 mil for the 2009 season. Assuming this comes to fruition, he will have earned $6.55 mil from the Phillies from 2007-09, while producing +11.85 wins above replacement level. If his deserved salaries are added, we get a figure of $54.4 mil.

It is easy to lampoon GMs for dishing out ridiculous deals to players like Adam Eaton, but they deserve equal praise for acquiring players as productive as Werth. Players who, despite being under control, are able to be had for about nine times less than their fair market value.

Win Values are here! See the post below. Woo!

If I asked you to name one guy who doesn’t currently have a starting job in major league baseball (or will get one after he signs his new contract) but deserved one, who would you say?

I’d say there’s one guy who stands out from the pack, and that guy is Willy Aybar.

From 2005 to 2008, in his age 22 to 25 seasons, Aybar has accumulated 745 plate appearances, or a little more than one full season’s worth of playing time. His career wOBA is .339, thanks to a good contact/gap power skillset, making him an above average major league hitter. 2008 was his worst year from a raw statistics perspective, with his .321 wOBA and -0.18 WPA/LI. However, he was remarkably unlucky in terms of batting average on balls in play – a .267 BABIP that simply wasn’t supported by how he hit the ball. Chris Dutton’s BABIP predictor had Aybar’s 2008 expected batting average on balls in play to come in at .314. Had the distribution of his balls in play been normal, Aybar would have hit something like .289/.363/.460. He improved offensively in 2008, even if the results don’t show it.

Defensively, he’s played mostly third, but also some second and first, and UZR has him above average at all three positions. As a +2 third baseman over 1,000 innings, it’d be fair to suggest that he could be solid defensively there, and he potentially could handle second base. He’s done well at the keystone in limited time, and as we explored earlier, most third baseman who also play second don’t see a drop in performance when shifting from one spot to the other.

In terms of total value (now available on the player pages), Aybar has been worth +3.8 wins over a replacement level player in his major league career. That works out to +3 wins per 600 PA. And remember, that doesn’t account for his rotten BABIP luck last year.

Right now, Aybar’s probably a true talent +2.5 to +3.0 win player with upside – a 26-year-old switch hitting infielder who can play multiple positions and has untapped offensive abilities, but doesn’t have to improve at all to already be above average.

The Rays don’t have any room for him in their line-up, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they kept him around as injury insurance. However, Willy Aybar deserves a full time job, and hopefully he gets one.

There’s a new section in the batting player pages which does the job of calculating a player’s runs over replacement and wins over replacement. Major thanks goes to Dave Cameron, Sean Smith, and Tangotiger for instructing me on the best way to do this.

Under each “Value” section you’ll find:

Batting – wRAA (Runs Above Average) with a park adjustment.
Fielding – The sum of a player’s UZR.
Replacement – The replacement level adjustment set at 20 Runs / 600 PA.
Positional – The positional adjustment set using Tangotiger’s values (see this link)
Value Runs – The sum of Batting, Fielding, Replacement, and Positional.
Value Wins – Value Runs converted to a wins scale.
Dollars – Value Wins converted to the following dollar scale:

2002 – $2.6m / win
2003 – $2.8m / win
2004 – $3.1m / win
2005 – $3.4m / win
2006 – $3.7m / win
2007 – $4.1m / win
2008 – $4.5m / win

This will all eventually be in the leaderboards and team pages, probably later this week.

With the Mark Teixeira saga now appeared to be over and the Yankees the victors, there are a handful of teams that thought they were or might have been in the running for Teixeira’s services at first base that now have to move on to other plans.

Boston seems like the easiest. They never had a hole at first base, they seemed to be pursuing Teixeira more out of pure interest and payroll room than any pressing need. All signs point to them simply staying at the status quo with Youkilis at first base. If Mike Lowell’s recovery doesn’t go smoothly, they could end up moving Youkilis back to third to cover there and that would open up a hole at first base, but reports so far have been positive for Lowell.

Anaheim has an in house candidate, Kendry Morales, for first base (how does that Kotchman trade look now?), but with a line-up hurting for offense there is still the chance that they pursue one of Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn and stick him at first base. Dunn would make the more sense of the two as Anaheim’s lineup is already stacked with right-handed hitters, but adding either of them to first base (or even the outfield) would further worsen their defense and almost certainly wouldn’t be worth the overall cost.

Baltimore could turn back to Kevin Millar for another one-year go-around or they could aim to try acquiring and giving auditions to some languishing AAAA players like Tampa did with Carlos Pena a few years back. With the Rays, Red Sox and a newly reloaded Yankees in their division, it’s not like the Orioles have to be fully focused on trying to fight for a playoff spot this season.

In the nation’s capital, the Washington Nationals are already under the financial burden of Dmitri Young, currently on their Triple-A roster, at $5 million and Nick Johnson for $5.5 million. At least losing out on Teixeira means they will have the opportunity to give Johnson a fifteenth chance to stay healthy. And never fear, because they just signed Corey Patterson!

It’s time to play everyone’s favorite statistical game, Hidden Identities! Below are the projected stat-lines in 2009 for two different pitchers, averaged together from a few different projection systems. As you may have gathered from previous examples of this game, the two pitchers are not as close in reputation as they are in projected performance.

Pitcher A: 170 IP, 4.58 FIP, +1.7 WAR
Pitcher B: 150 IP, 4.65 FIP, +1.4 WAR

Both of these pitchers seem pretty darn close in terms of their true talent levels. Pitcher A may be a bit more durable and effective, and overall a better pitcher, but the performance discrepancies are not nearly vast enough to deem A a #3-type starter and B lucky to be considered a #5 on a decent team. Before divulging their true identities, the point here is to show that there are usually alternatives to be had when filling out the back of your rotation, players whose performances won’t light the world on fire but will have some value over the replacement level while costing next to nothing.

Player A is Oliver Perez, the Boras client currently being compared to Sandy Koufax. Player B is Odalis Perez, member of the 2008 Washington Nationals who was all but forgotten a few years back. Oliver is seeking a very lucrative deal, likely similar in value and years to the contract recently signed by Ryan Dempster. Odalis is seeking… well… a job next season. In fair market value terms, this is a difference of $8.5 mil for Oliver and $7 mil for Odalis, not that substantial.

Odalis isn’t the only such player, either. Granted, it is very difficult to find someone worth over one win that can be had on the cheap, but a few other pitchers are currently available for small stipends that have value above replacement level. The three pitchers I have in mind are Josh Fogg, Kip Wells, and Jon Lieber. At this stage in their careers, none are bound to make the all star team or anything of that variety, but package projections calling for positive win production at under $4 mil.

Fogg and Wells are coming off of very poor ERA-seasons, which deflates their overall value even though their controllable skills are a half-win or more above replacement. Lieber is old and coming off of a season in which he made under 30 relief appearances.

Fogg’s projections call for around 120 innings at a 5.07 FIP. This puts him at +5 runs, and worth $2.5 mil on the open market. Coming off of a poor 2008 season in which he made just $1 mil, he could likely be had for a similar fee under his fair market value.

Wells split time between the Rockies and Royals, primarily pitching out of the bullpen. His projection calls for a 4.75 FIP in 80 innings of work, which would bump up to around 5.00, as a starter. This would make Wells a +5 run, +0.5 win pitcher. Last season, he made $3.1 mil, and based on his poor ERA as well as the decreased salaries being given to relievers this offseason, probably will not earn more than his $2.5 mil fair market value.

Lieber is older than Fogg and Wells, but has a projection calling for similar production. If a team has a solid prospect waiting in the wings, the production of these three could be replicated for the league minimum of $400k. However, the aforementioned three are available for what should be small fees.

At prices higher than their fair market values, stay away, but if you can sign Kip Wells or Lieber or Fogg to a 1-yr/$1-2 mil deal, it is something to seriously consider. These pitchers will not bump a team up from 86 wins to 89 or anything along those lines, but a deal like this would carry with it so little commitment or monetary risk.

“I apologize on behalf of Yankee fans everywhere.” — my friend Ryan.

If you haven’t heard, the Evil Empire apparently wasn’t done angering everyone this winter, so they topped off their off-season with a side course of Mark Teixeira. The rumored contract terms are 8 years and $170 million. I had him pegged for 7 years and $171 million back before the off-season started and we realized that this was going to be a pretty big buyer’s market. If this were a normal off-season, we’d call this pretty standard for a free agent contract, but it’s not a normal off-season, and now the Yankees have given out the three largest contracts this winter, and it’s not particularly close.

CC Sabathia: $23 million per year
Teixeira: $22.5 million per year
A.J. Burnett: $16.4 million per year

Ryan Dempster: $13 million per year

With the additions of Teixeira and Sabathia to go along with Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, the Yankees now have the four highest paid players in baseball. Including their luxury tax payments, the Yankees are going to blow by $250 million in spending on their 25 man roster for 2009. They’re spending in excess of $10 million on each and every single spot on the team.

If you’re a Yankee fan, congratulations, this is what it feels like to root for the casinos in Las Vegas. The rest of baseball are casual gamblers, and you’re the guys rigging the games in your favor. I hope it’s fun for you.

As for what this move means, Teixeira replaces Melky Cabrera in the line-up and pushes Nick Swisher into the outfield. That upgrade should represent something like 3-4 wins for the Yankees (it would be closer to five if Teixeira was replacing a true replacement level player), so they’re paying about $6 million per win for their franchise. Considering that adding Teixeira probably puts them from something like an 88 win team to a 92 win team, that’s a bargain for those four wins, because this signing pushes the Yankees from “contenders” to “best team in baseball” status. That’s a pretty big leap in terms of expected playoff odds, and the Yankees certainly understand how adding Teixeira should help them improve their chances of playing in October.

Teixeira gets to play on the east coast, gets a ton of money, and will have a chance to play on a winner for the rest of his career. The Yankees get an all-star caliber player who hasn’t yet hit 30. And the rest of baseball gets a reminder that the Yankees are playing with a ridiculous competitive advantage, and that they’re really just competing against the other 28 teams for 7 playoff spots.

Screw the Yankees. Go Rays and Red Sox.

This offseason has been particularly interesting, as seven, count them, seven, corner outfielders with similar skillsets hit the open market. Bobby Abreu, Garrett Anderson, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez all became free agents, all looking to hit a big payday. To date, only Ibanez has signed, and that deal has been largely lampooned.

With a surplus at the position, the market price has seemingly been driven down. After all, why pay an exorbitant fee for Burrell if Abreu could be had for slightly less? Or, replace either of those two names with any of the aforementioned others and the rhetorical question still works. Anderson is a better fielder than hitter, but the remaining players can all be classified as good-hitting, bad-fielding players.

If we want to include Anderson in the mix, this classification can be adjusted to show that these seven players are all one-dimensional.

Going along with the idea of positional adjustments that Dave has written so much about this week, I thought it would be interesting to show the production levels and dollar valuations for everyone sans-Ibanez at both the corner outfield position and designated hitter spot.

Before examining the results, let it be known that the positional adjustments are -7.5 runs per 162 games for LF, and -17.5 runs per 162 games for DH. Short of 162 games, these are prorated. The value above replacement is +20 runs per 600 PA, prorated below that number. Here are the results if they signed on as a leftfielder:

Name        PA/GP    wRAA   UZR    Pos.   Adj.  WAR
Abreu      600/159   16.0  -14.0   20.0  -7.4   +1.46
Anderson   540/140   -6.0    5.0   18.0  -6.5   +1.05
Burrell    600/157   19.0  -12.0   20.0  -7.4   +1.97
Dunn       600/159   23.0  -12.0   20.0  -7.4   +2.36
Griffey    550/130    2.0  -13.0   18.0  -6.0   +0.10
Ramirez    580/150   35.0  -12.0   19.0  -6.9   +3.51

As a corner outfielder, Ramirez is still the cream of the crop, with Dunn coming in over one win less valuable. Griffey is essentially the definition of a replacement player, and the rest project as below average players. In Burrell’s case, he projects as an average player next year, but at his age, a sharper decline isn’t out of the question. How about if they were to serve as designated hitters instead of outfielders?

To convert to designated hitters, we prorate the -17.5 positional adjustment per 162 games and get rid of the UZR projections. This bumps up the value of Burrell, Abreu, Dunn, Manny, and Griffey. Anderson, who projects to be below average offensively, loses value.

Burrell shifts from +1.97 to +2.20. Abreu from +1.46 to +1.88. Dunn from +2.36 to +2.58. Manny from +3.51 to +3.70. And Griffey from +0.10 to +0.60. Anderson digresses from +1.05 to -0.30, becoming a below replacement level player if he signs as a designated hitter. Translated to dollars, here are the discrepancies between being a LF and DH:

Name       LF WAR   LF FMV    DH WAR    DH FMV
Abreu      +1.46    $7.30     +1.88     $9.40
Anderson   +1.05    $5.20     -0.30     $0.40
Burrell    +1.97    $9.85     +2.20    $11.00
Dunn       +2.36   $11.80     +2.58    $12.90
Griffey    +0.10    $0.50     +0.60     $3.00
Ramirez    +3.51   $17.55     +3.70    $18.50

These results suggest that everyone but Anderson would better serve their team as a designated hitter than leftfielder. For teams, perhaps the most financially interesting dilemma is how much to offer these players given how many of them are on the market. If teams can sign these players for their leftfield fair market value and play them at DH, they will get a steal of sorts. But, if the Ibanez signing is a sign of things to come, teams still do not understand the value of defense.

Still, the calendar year is almost over and these six players are yet to find new homes. A couple may get the paydays initially sought, but others may have to substantially lower their requests to garner a full year’s worth of playing time.