Archive for 2008

While there are still a few pennant races to be determined, we have a pretty good grasp on at least one series that will open next Tuesday – the Red Sox and Angels will be squaring off, as Boston’s the very likely wild card entry and the Angels will almost certainly finish with the league’s best record.

This is a tough draw for the Angels, because despite not winning their division, it’s pretty easy to make a case that the Red Sox are the best team in the AL this year. They have the league’s best run differential (+165), and no one else is particularly close. They’ve scored more runs than each of the other AL playoff teams (only Texas scored more often overall) and they’ve allowed the second fewest runs, 12 behind Tampa Bay.

On top of that, the Red Sox are built extremely well for the playoffs. Their big weakness this year was the #5 starter position, which was filled by a variety of players at different times. Overall, the starters beyond Beckett/Lester/Matsuzaka/Wakefield pitched 231 innings and had a 4.81 FIP, compared to the 3.91 FIP that the four playoff starters managed to total.

In addition, the best innings of the #5 starter group came from Justin Masterson, who has been terrific out of the bullpen for the Sox, giving them another RH setup man to bridge the gap to Jonathan Papelbon. With Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez, and Manny Delcarman, along with Masterson and Papelbon, the Sox have five quality relievers for high leverage situations.

Assuming that the nine main pitchers for Boston log a significant majority of the playoff innings, the Red Sox probably have the best playoff pitching staff of any team headed into October. Beckett’s a legitimate #1, Lester and Matsuzaka are inconsistent but occasionally brilliant, and Wakefield’s knuckler makes him one of the best #4 starters around.

This isn’t to say the Angels don’t have a chance – they have a good team with some quality arms themselves, but their reward for having the AL’s best record is a date with a team that is probably superior in most ways. If the Angels end up bowing out in the first round, it won’t be because they couldn’t handle the pressure – they’ve just drawn a better opponent.

The Atlanta Braves organization is well-known for its preference in drafting raw high school pitchers and molding them with the club’s pitching philosophies. The 2006 draft was known for being heavy in talented college pitchers, but the Braves still followed through with the club’s original formula and selected four high school pitchers as part of its seven picks within the first three rounds of the draft.

(FYI: The club also draft high school first baseman Cody Johnson, community college shortstop Chase Fontaine, and college pitcher Dustin Evans).

Cory Rasmus, brother of St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, was the first prep pitcher taken by Atlanta (38th overall). He has been slowed by injuries and has pitched just 13 innings in the last three seasons. He is expected to be healthy in 2009 and the right-hander should spend most of the year in A-ball.

Steve Evarts (43rd) has also pitched far less in the past three seasons than the Braves had hoped he would, in part due to injuries and in part due to disciplinary reasons. When he’s been on the mound, the young lefty has pitched well and he has a 2.30 career ERA in 98 innings, having allowed just 86 hits and 17 walks, with 81 strikeouts.

Jeff Locke (51st) has at least been able to stay on the mound for three seasons with good, but not spectacular, results. This season, his first in full-season ball, Locke allowed 150 hits in 139.2 innings but walked just 38 batters and struck out 113. The lefty obviously has excellent control, but he needs to miss more bats if he is going to be successful in the upper minors.

Chad Rodgers (100th) was the fourth high school pitcher taken and the third lefty. He, like Locke, played his first full season of ball in 2008 after two stints in Rookie ball. Rodgers went just 2-10 with a 4.53 ERA and split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen. He showed good control (2.76 BB/9) and struck out more batters than Locke (7.59 K/9) but also had trouble missing bats and allowed more than one hit per inning.

It’s true what they say: Young pitchers will break your heart. This quartet of talented pitchers have opportunities that millions dream of, but few realize. It’s about time they start to take advantage of those chances.

Heading into the final weekend of play, there are some playoff races that look like they could go down to the wire, and last night, we saw some huge plays that could end up being season altering for the teams involved. Here’s a look at the biggest hits.

8th inning, White Sox lead 6-5, runner at first, 1 out: Denard Span triples off Bobby Jenks.

Span’s hit was huge, adding .419 WPA by driving in a runner not already in scoring position to tie a crucial game with just five outs left before the Twins lost. That hit set the stage for

9th inning, Twins-White Sox tied at 6, runners at first and third, 2 out: Alexi Casilla singles off Jenks.

A game winning single by Casilla gives the Twins the win and the division lead, though he should share the .360 WPA credit with Nick Punto, who was able to draw the walk that eventually led to the winning run. By winning again, the Twins have taken the division lead from the White Sox headed into the final weekend of play.

10th inning, Brewers-Pirates tied at 1, bases loaded, 2 out: Ryan Braun hits a home run off of Jesse Chavez

The Brewers are in a race to the finish for the Wild Card, and they needed a big. Ryan Braun’s walkoff grand slam added .339 WPA and sealed the win for Milwaukee, allowing them to keep pace with the Mets because…

9th inning, Cubs-Mets tied at 6, runners at first and second, 2 out: Carlos Beltran singles off Kevin Hart

Beltran gave the Mets a walkoff win of their own, racking up .386 WPA for his game winning single. Seriously, MVP voters who want to give an award to a Met named Carlos – you’re focusing on the wrong one. Beltran’s been tremendous for the Mets this year, and while he’s obviously not the NL MVP, he’s the better candidate on the boys from Queens.

Never minding the ludicrous idea that the Tigers could score 1,000 runs this season, they did look to come into the year with an overpowering offense and despite a slow start to April that left most people forgetful of them, the Tigers did exactly that. Though Miguel Cabrera perhaps had a disappointing season given his hype and move over to first base defensively, the Tigers offense was not what sunk them this season.

No, it was on the run prevention side that Detroit flopped. Notably, their defense was horrible. Anyone who was paying attention in 2007 would have predicted that coming in however. What was unexpected was the utter collapse of the Tigers pitching staff. Last season the bullpen was nothing special, but neither were they especially terrible. This year? Not so much as they had Bobby Seay and that’s about it as far as relievers that actually contributed positively to the pen.

However, not even that is the most troubling aspect of 2008 for Detroit. That distinction goes to the rotation, once hyped full of young talent. In 2008, it nearly all fell apart aside from Justin Verlander. Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Kenny Rogers were all colossal failures compared to preseason expectations and what’s worse is that Detroit purged its system of Andrew Miller in acquiring Willis and Cabrera from Florida.

Detroit would like hope to be on the way in the form of Rick Porcello, but the teenage stud of the 2007 draft who the Tigers nabbed after he fell due to signability reasons did not have an inaugural professional season to write home about. Walking or hitting over 8% of hitters in advanced A ball isn’t going to get you noticed unless you’re fanning over 25% of them at the same time. Porcello certainly wasn’t doing that, registering a 13.7% figure in that department.

Yes, Porcello is young. Very young in fact; just 19 in a league averaging 23 years of age, but his slow start just going to reinforce that the Tigers are going to need to look elsewhere for awhile to find help in the rotation.

Back at the beginning of the season, fans in Cincinnati did not really know what to expect after trading away best-story winner Josh Hamilton for a slender righthanded pitcher named Edinson Volquez. After a month, many were convinced that the trade was a win-win, because Hamilton’s bat caught fire and Volquez emerged as the early Cy Young Award favorite in the National League. Few had truly heard of Volquez or knew anything about his repertoire, velocity, or potential, but he dominated hitters left and right, posting some insane numbers in the process. In fact, if Cliff Lee had not had an Orel Hershiser-esque stretch, Volquez would have looked even better early on.

In his first 13 games, 12 of which were starts, Volquez amassed 75 innings, giving up just 49 hits, only 3 of which were longballs. Walks were a bit of an issue as he surrendered 38 free passes, but he showed the ability to miss bats with 91 strikeouts, a 10.92 K/9. His ERA was a measly 1.32, his average game score was 68, and hitters were posting a .188/.303/.261 slash line against.

Over his last 20 starts, his numbers have regressed, and his position atop the out-of-nowhere-story throne was lost, but his overall season is still quite good. In this 20-start span, Volquez posted the following: 121 IP, 118 H, 11 HR, 55 BB, 115 K, 4.39 ERA, 51 GSC, .257/.345/.403. Okay, so he became human again and looked a bit closer to what we would expect from an average pitcher instead of the dominant force through the beginning of June. But hey, Hamilton regressed too, so it is still a win-win.

Combined, Volquez is at 196 innings pitched, just 167 hits surrendered, 93 walks, and 206 strikeouts. His 9.46 K/9 is very attractive but the 4.27 BB/9 chips away a bit. A 2.22 K/BB is not terrible but his one glaring flaw this season lies in the walks issued. His 3.21 ERA is not deemed out of line based on his 3.59 FIP, and while his 1.33 WHIP is closer to average than dominant, his 75.5% strand rate has ensured a good portion of those runners remained put. He should get one more start to finish up the season, making it very likely for him to surpass the 200 IP mark with solid numbers to backup that amount of usage. He might not win any postseason awards and he may have regressed since the beginning of June, but Edinson Volquez still put together one heck of a season

Tampa Bay is one game away from clinching the American League East – a win or a Red Sox loss will give them their first division title in franchise history, completing the best story of the year as the little guy slays a couple of baseball giants. Andrew Friedman and his staff deserve a ton of credit for building a division winner on a shoestring payroll.

However, some members of the mainstream media have continually attempted to demean the team building accomplishments of the Rays, claiming that the foundation of their success has been built by years of losing yielding a bevy of first round picks. As the theory goes, it’s those guys acquired as a reward of ineptitude that has allowed Tampa to thrive. To discredit the job Friedman and company have done, they instead point to the contributions of B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Scott Kazmir, Evan Longoria, and the gang acquired for Delmon Young this winter. And certainly, those guys are integral parts of the team.

However, I wonder if those same writers have noticed that the Rays have been without Crawford for the last two months and without Upton for a good chunk of September? In fact, if you look at some of the line-ups the Rays have been running out this month, it’s regularly included guys like Fernando Perez, Ben Zobrist, Dan Johnson, Eric Hinske, and Gabe Gross. With a patchwork line-up of role players, the Rays went 7-4 in games against Boston, New York, and Minnesota. Facing the toughest part of their schedule, without the two toolsy outfielders that have become the defacto face of the Rays rebuilding process, Tampa won 64 percent of their games to essentially put away the division title.

In fact, here is the WPA/LI for the Rays hitters in September:

Name WPA/LI
Carlos Pena 0.61
Evan Longoria 0.31
Gabe Gross 0.19
Willy Aybar 0.18
Ben Zobrist 0.11
Fernando Perez 0.11
Dioner Navarro 0.10
Cliff Floyd 0.10
Jason Bartlett 0.08
Justin Ruggiano 0.05
Dan Johnson 0.02
Akinori Iwamura -0.10
M. Hernandez -0.12
B.J. Upton -0.12
Eric Hinske -0.40
Rocco Baldelli -0.46

Crawford hasn’t played, Upton and Baldelli have been two of the least effective hitters, and the Rays have been able to play better than .500 ball against a ridiculously tough schedule: 6 against NY, 6 against Boston, 4 against Minnesota, 4 against Baltimore, and 3 against Toronto.

At some point, people have to recognize the contributions Tampa is getting from it’s role players this year. The Rays had Upton, Crawford, Pena, Kazmir, and Shields last year too, and they only won 66 games.

The young stars are certainly valuable commodities, but this team is going to win the AL East because of how good their role players have been. And for that, we have to acknowledge that no one in baseball has done a better job of team building in the last year than the folks down in Tampa.

Congratulations to Andrew Friedman and crew – you guys have earned this.

As it came time for this season’s action, two pitchers I had my eyes on were Dustin McGowan of the Blue Jays and Shawn Hill of the Nationals. Both had displayed the ability to succeed in the major leagues in 2007, showed very solid controllable skills, and looked poised to take the next step in 2008. Hill’s 2007 was by no means reminiscent of Pedro circa 1999-2000, but he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 4.03 FIP, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 2.60 K/BB. Via WPA/LI, Hill was worth right around one win above an average pitcher, despite making just 19 starts.

This year he was plagued with injuries right from the get-go, missing time due to a strained right forearm, then right elbow tightness, and finally right forearm tightness, an injury serious enough to keep him out of action from June 25 until the end of the season. In the time he did toe the rubber, he posted a 5.83 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -1.18 WPA/LI, making him worth over a win less than an average starting pitcher. Fortunately, these numbers do not tell the whole story, as his BABIP was an otherworldly .373, and his strand rate was way below average because of this, at just 62%. Looking solely at his controllable skills, Hill’s FIP was 4.06, virtually identical to last year’s.

If the problems were due to the injuries, and the time off can help get him back on track, great, however he is very likely going to be on injury watch the rest of his career. I can remember watching Mitch Williams break down Hill’s mechanics before, and with Hill’s windup, his legs are planted while his arm still has its ways to go. This means he is basically throwing with all arm, which is an injury just waiting to happen. Williams proposed Hill alter his windup or else his career is going to consist of solid 16-start seasons with the other time spent rehabbing or on the disabled list.

McGowan, last year, posted a 4.08 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, a 2.36 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP, and was worth 1.5 wins above an average pitcher via WPA/LI. His 68% strand rate was below the league average but his BABIP was somewhat significantly better than the rest of the league. Entering this season, he was being counted on to be the key third member of what could be the best rotation in baseball. His numbers were not as “poor” as Hill’s, but did not signal a step forward by any means. His 3.81 FIP, very similar to last year’s, suggests his 4.37 ERA was too high, and his .316 BABIP led to a higher WHIP of 1.37. Since his strand rate remained the same, the increase in BABIP led to more baserunners who came around to score. His K/BB dropped a bit, but only from 2.36 to 2.24.

Dustin was previously diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear before it was decided he would need to undergo surgery to repair fraying in the glenoid labrum of his right shoulder. From what I have gathered, pitchers tend to resume mound throwing around seven months following such a surgery, though the rehab time could be longer. Additionally, if he experiences a problem with his rotator cuff again, he could miss the entire 2009 season. The Blue Jays expect him to be back in action in May, however. Injuries prevented both of these potential stars from taking the next step this year, so we will have another year of wondering what if, but next year will definitely be pivotal in understanding where they might be headed.

Tom Gordon has had a noteworthy career, but for today, the discussion is going to focus on three players who have a connection to Tom Gordon that most do not realize. Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain were all selected with draft picks received by their respective teams as compensation for losing Tom Gordon.

Gio Gonzalez, along with Ray Liotta, was drafted by the White Sox in the 2004 June draft after the White Sox capitalized on their one-year contact with Gordon by offering him arbitration and seeing him leave to the New York Yankees where he provided two great seasons of set up relief. Gonzalez is best known at the moment for being involved in the Nick Swisher trade, which explains why he is now with Oakland. Gonzalez has an uninspiring major league experience this season, but has fared well in Triple-A with over a strikeout an inning, though he will have to get the walks under control.

After the 2005 season, with Gordon’s contract up, instead of remaining with the Yankees as many aging but still productive veterans seem to do, Gordon instead chose to go back to closing games and signed with the Philadelphia Phillies. That signing netted the Yankees a pair of first round compensation picks, the 21st and 41st overall picks. With the 21st, the Yankees selected Ian Kennedy and grabbed Joba Chamberlain with the 41st. Both were inspired picks and have come along much faster than their relative draft position brethren.

Obviously Joba Chamberlain’s story and skills are well enough known at this point, but Ian Kennedy has seemed to lose a bit of his future luster after a seemingly poor showing this year in the bigs. However, Kennedy is still young and still has a tremendous minor league track record to his credit so patience is needed with him. We’ll see if the Yankees are willing to exercise some after missing the post season for the first time since 1993.

That all three of these hurlers came as a result of compensation for Tom Gordon (and all three also involved the Yankees) makes for a unique reason to follow their careers as the they progress from here on out.

The other night, while watching the Braves/Phillies game, I could not help but notice that, with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann getting a day off, Bobby Cox’s lineup looked terrible, registering a zero on the intimidation-ometer. Granted, McCann is still a regular even though Chipper’s days off are becoming the norm rather than the exception, but on September 22, this is the lineup Cox put out there, followed by their WPA/LI and OPS:

Josh Anderson, CF, -0.41, .649
Martin Prado, 3B, 1.10, .849
Kelly Johnson, 2B, 0.97, .799
Omar Infante, LF, -0.06, .762
Jeff Franceour, RF, -2.42, .653
Casey Kotchman, 1B, -0.17, .641
Clint Sammons, C, -0.56, .426
Brent Lillibridge, SS, -0.50, .515

Now, Kotchman’s numbers are with Atlanta only, Sammons and Lillibridge have yet to rack up 80 plate appearances, and these guys are not considered top prospects for nothing, but as a pitcher, wouldn’t you salivate over facing this batting order? Omar Infante batting cleanup? Seriously? Is that supposed to scare pitchers?

Interestingly enough, when Dave and I were discussing this, he mentioned that the Mariners recent lineups could give this one a run for its money. On the same day, September 22, against the Angels, the Mariners had this lineup:

Ichiro Suzuki, RF, 0.09, .753
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, -2.16, .661
Raul Ibanez, LF, 1.37, .856
Jose Lopez, 1B, -0.27, .752
Jeremy Reed, CF, -0.70, .673
Timothy Hulett, DH, -0.18, .624
Matthew Tuiasosopo, 3B, -0.56, .395
Luis Valbuena, 2B, -0.29, .583
Rob Johnson, C, -0.41, .190

Again, Johjima is the regular catcher over Johnson, but it isn’t as if you would be inserting someone like McCann back into the lineup. Although, compared to Johnson’s .190 OPS, Johjima’s numbers likely would look like McCann’s. The Mariners lineup has Ichiro, Ibanez, and perhaps Jose Lopez as somewhat of a threat, while the rest do not look so good. The Braves have Johnson, a surprising Prado, a Kotchman just waiting to “bust out” and an about league average Infante. So, the question is, even though these might not be the exact everyday lineups of these teams, as an opposing pitcher, which of these September 22 lineups would you rather face, and why?

Sometimes, baseball just leaves us with some inexplicable performances, such as the infamous 50 HR season by Brady Anderson. You can’t explain it – you just realize that baseball is weird sometimes, and strange things happen.

So, in that vein, let’s talk about Jerry Hairston. For his career, he’s a .260/.330/.360 hitter – your garden variety utility infielder. He has okay contact skills and a smidge of power, can play a few different positions, and can run a little bit. He’s had a rather pedestrian career, finding playing time as a role player on some not good teams, and generally just floating around the game as a warm body.

Last year, though, he fell apart. He hit .189/.249/.289 while playing in Texas – racking up 184 terrible plate appearances and generally looking like a guy who couldn’t play baseball anymore. His walks were down, his strikeouts were up, and he posted a pitiful 13.5% line drive percentage, so it’s not like he was scorching the baseball right at people. 52% of his balls in play were flyballs, and when you’re a guy without much power, that’s bad news, because those fly balls aren’t going over the wall, and the outfielders will have plenty of time to track them down. Even worse, 21% of those flyballs were of the infield variety – weak popups that are always outs.

By pretty much any standard, Hairston was one of the worst players in the game in 2007. Texas jettisoned him, and he ended up signing a minor league contract with the Reds. When injuries struck and they needed some help at the big league level, they gave him a call… and he’s had the year of his life.

Hairston is hitting .329/.389/.473. His line drive rate is now 28.2%, as he really is just crushing the baseball every time he swings. He has 25 extra base hits after totaling just 17 in 2006 and 2007 combined. He’s been worth about a win more than an average hitter in just half a season’s worth of playing time, and he’s doing it as an up the middle defender at age 32.

Last year is the type of season that ends a lot of careers – a guy with limited value turning in a terrible performance in a hitters park at age 31. There aren’t many teams that will look at that player and say “hey, he’s due for a rebound”. But Hairston has apparently decided to regress to Barry Larkin’s mean instead of his own, turning in a season that just makes you scratch your head and wonder what’s going on.

If any Reds fans have any idea why Jerry Hairston has played at an All-Star level for the last few months, I’d love to hear it.