Archive for 2008

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Neil Walker out of a local high school in the first round of the 2004 draft (11th overall). At the time, he was a young, promising, switch-hitting catcher. More than four years later, though, Walker is on the cusp of the Major Leagues but he has been converted to the hot corner.

The move from behind the plate really does hurt Walker’s potential quite a bit. With catchers, any type of offence is considered a bonus, as long as they play solid defence and call a good game. At third base, though, the bat is under the microscope as this position is traditionally a power position.

In five minor league seasons, Walker’s line looks like this: .273/.320/.426. That is OK, but not spectacular for a former No. 1 draft pick hoping to play third base at the Major League level, especially given that Walker hit just .242/.280/.414 in 505 at-bats during the 2008 Triple-A season. On the plus side, he did hit a career-high 16 homers and drove in 80 runs.

On the downside, he walked just 5.4% of the time, had an OPS of .697 and an ISO of .172, none of which screams impact bat. Walker will be just 24 next season but he will need to make some adjustments and get his bat going if he hopes to avoid getting left behind. Earlier this season, Pittsburgh obtained top third base prospect Andy LaRoche from the Los Angeles Dodges and he has a head start on claiming the title of third baseman of the future.

Last night, the Yankees were officially eliminated from playoff contention. For the first time since 1993, we’re going to have baseball in October and the Yankees won’t be participating. How different were things the last time New York watched the playoffs at home?

The Yankees best hitter was Mike Stanley, their best outfielder was Dion James, and their best pitcher was Jimmy Key. Spike Owen was playing shortstop and Bernie Williams was trying to prove he could play center field on a daily basis.

Chris Hoiles was the best catcher in baseball. Travis Fryman was a shortstop, Gary Sheffield was a third baseman, and the best all around young outfielders were Bernard Gilkey, Mark Whiten, and Al Martin.

Nine pitchers threw more than 250 innings, led by Greg Maddux’s 267. Alex Fernandez looked like the next great young starting pitcher. Bryan Harvey was the game’s best closer pitching on one of the worst teams in the league – the expansion Marlins, who were in their first season as an MLB team (along with Colorado).

Philip Hughes was seven years old. Tim Beckham, the kid who went first overall in the draft this past summer, was three years old.

Bobby Bonilla was the game’s highest paid player – he made $6.2 million. The Blue Jays had the highest team payroll at just over $45 million. The expansion Rockies had a payroll of $8.8 million. 10 teams had total payrolls less than $27 million – the amount Alex Rodriguez will make this year.

Baseball has gone through some huge shifts, but the Yankees playing in October were always a constant. It will be nice to have some fresh blood in there, but it’s going to be a bit weird.

On September 7th, the Pirates lost 11-6 to the San Francisco Giants. This loss dropped the Pirates record to 60-82 and officially marked the 16th consecutive season that the Pirates were to finish below .500. Appropriate then that the loss was at the hands of the Giants who signed away Barry Bonds from the Pirates in the winter between the 1992 and 1993 seasons coming off Bonds’ second MVP season and his first with an OPS over 1.000 and an OPS+ over 200.

It takes a lot of things to finish below .500 consecutively for over a decade and a half. It takes some combination of hilarious incompetent management, low payroll and bad luck. Most teams manage to escape having all three of those factors against them but a few always fall prey to it each year. It’s the Pirates who have been remarkable in falling prey to it every year. Even the Expos managed years over .500 near the end of their run in Montreal.

While not much can be done about bad luck, the Pirates have taken steps to correct the poor management and with Neal Huntington in place at GM and an expanding intelligence base in the front office, they seem to be on the right path. One aspect that they will have to evaluate is the amateur drafting strategy employed by their predecessors.

In 2004, with the 11th overall pick, the Pirates selected catcher Neil Walker passing on possibilities Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew and Phil Hughes among others. Walker has progressed steadily but slowly through the Pirates farm system, reaching Triple-A this season at age 22, but proving that he still has a ways to go offensively.

In 2005, again with the 11th overall pick, the Pirates stayed in the high school ranks tabbing outfielder Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen has followed much the same path as Neil Walker, moving steadily up through the ranks and spending the entire 2007 season in Triple-A where he posted a respectable line for a center fielder. 2006 saw the Pirates move up to the fourth overall pick, which they used to jump back in to the college ranks for righthander Brad Lincoln who tossed 24 innings for them that year and then promptly missed the entire 2007 season with Tommy John surgery.

While each of those picks were defensible in their own rights, what notable about those three drafts was the overall failure of them combined so far to produce any major league talent. The 2004-6 drafts have to date only produced a handful of unproductive at bats for Brian Bixler, Brent Lillibridge and Stephen Pearce. Three years worth of draft picks have yet to see a return. Already, Huntington has made news with his draft picks as the Pedro Alvarez mess seems to have finally come to a conclusion, but it will be interesting to see if any trends emerge from the new regime as it pertains to stocking the minors.

Mike Mussina did not have too great of a season last year. He barely surmounted the 150 innings plateau even with 27 starts and a relief appearance. He fanned just 91 hitters, a 5.39 K/9, his lowest rate since 1994. Coupled with a 2.07 BB/9, Mussina’s 2.60 K/BB was his lowest since 1993. Surrendering 188 hits in those 152 innings helped produce a career worst 1.47 WHIP. Stranding just 66% of those baserunners resulted in all time high ERA of 5.15. With numbers like that and a fastball that struggled to touch 86-87 miles per hour, the end appeared to be rapidly approaching this potential and oft-debated hall of fame candidate.

There were some good signs, however, as the hits surrendered hinged upon an unusually high .340 BABIP. Additionally, despite 5.15 ERA, his FIP was a solid 4.01, which might not be the caliber of a #1 pitcher, but definitely what a team should be looking for in a #3-#4 guy. Entering this season, the Marcel projection system saw Mussina as a 4.53 ERA/3.95 FIP pitcher with a 2.83 K/BB and a 1.38 WHIP. His numbers were projected to regress a bit, but not all the way back to the Moose from the late 90’s/early 2000’s.

With a week left in the season, Mussina has made many forget about last season’s numbers as he has been a rock for the Yankees staff. In 32 starts, he has pitched in 189.1 innings, and while he has gotten hit around a bit to the tune of 207 hits surrendered and a .326 BABIP, his WHIP has dropped to 1.25. The major reason for this is his 1.38 BB/9, which happens to be the lowest of his entire career. Coupled with a nice 6.70 K/9, Mussina’s K/BB now rests at 4.86, one of the highest in his career. The strand rate has regressed to the league average 72%, and with the reduced amount of baserunners, period, this has helped him to a 3.57 ERA. His FIP of 3.38 suggests it should be even lower.

His fastball has gotten even slower this year, as he averages around 84-86 mph on his “heater” but something noteworthy is his change of rates on balls in play. His career rate of grounders is 43%, and from 2002-2007, it ranged from 40-43%. This year, however, he is at 48%. It is very tough to discuss Mussina right now without mentioning his hall of fame candidacy, so I will leave that for the comments section below, but if he were to retire following this season, going out on top so to speak, what do you consider his chances to be? Or does he need one more season like this to cement his place in Cooperstown?

David Price made his first major league start against the Orioles and did not disappoint those who were looking to be impressed by the former #1 overall pick. He took a no-hitter into the 5th inning before running out of gas, and while his command wasn’t top notch, his stuff was still good enough to keep the runs off the board.

Price has now made three appearances for the Rays since they called him up and given Tampa Bay fans reasons for optimism. His fastball is averaging 95.1 MPH but also inducing a lot of groundballs – his early GB% is 58.8%. The hard throwing groundball pitcher group is one of the best peer groups in baseball, consisting of a bunch of Cy Young candidates (and Fausto Carmona). Being able to get groundballs while throwing hard is a terrific building block for a pitcher.

Price hasn’t been afraid to work in his slider, either, throwing it 40 percent of the time, and using it as his out pitch. It’s a good but not great pitch, and it can get slurvy at times, but it’s a terrific weapon against left-handed hitters. We see that, so far, lefties haven’t been able to touch Price, going 3-18 with a walk and six strikeouts. All three hits have been singles, so LHBs are hitting .167/.211/.167 against him.

Given his stuff, we’d expect him to dominate same handed hitters, but the lack of a change-up makes him somewhat vulnerable to right-handed batters. In general, we’d expect a pitcher who throws exclusively a fastball/slider to show a larger than average platoon split, and even in the small sample of his ML performance to date, that’s been true – RHBs are 5 for 24 with a couple of extra base hits and only three strikeouts. The slider just isn’t nearly the weapon against RHB that it is against LHB, so Price has to rely more on in play outs to keep righties off the bases.

Because of his early success and his pedigree, there will probably be some talk that the Rays should use Price as their #4 starter in the playoffs, supplanting both Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine. I’ve even heard Jim Callis, who I have a lot of respect for, suggest this very thing, but based on his current two pitch repertoire, his ability to hold down good RH hitters is still a work in progress. Price could be a dominant force coming out of the pen, where he could be selectively used to maximize his ability to shut down LHBs.

Price’s talent is certainly there, and I have few doubts that he’ll eventually settle in as a quality starting pitcher, but that can wait until next year. For right now, the Rays should see Price for what he can be the next month – a fantastic LH relief pitcher.

Things may not have gone as planned in the Bronx this season, but the New York Yankees club has received some encouraging bullpen contributions from some young pitchers.

Jose Veras, 27, may be a little older than the typical rookie, but he had just 21.1 innings of Major League experience before the 2008 season began. The right-hander has been solid throughout the season by allowing 50 hits and 27 walks in 56 innings. He has also fanned 60 batters. Veras does have a few things to work on for next season, including lowering his walk totals (4.34 BB/9) and keeping the ball in the park a little bit better (1.13 HR/9).

Edwar Ramirez, 27, received a lot of press last season after posting some ridiculous minor league numbers, thanks to a plus-plus change-up. The right-hander found the Major Leagues to be a little more challenging (8.14 ERA in 21 innings in 2007) but he settled in nicely in 2008. In 54 innings this season, Ramirez has allowed 43 hits and 24 walks. He has also struck out 61 batters. Like Veras, Ramirez needs to keep the walks down (3.98 BB/9) and avoid the long ball (1.16 HR/9). He was also helped by a BABIP of .281.

Regardless of how well Veras and Ramirez duplicate their 2008 seasons in 2009, both players have turned out to be wise acquisitions by the Yankees (a club that does not receive enough credit for its scouting). Veras was signed as a minor league free agent after spending time with the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers organizations. Ramirez, originally a signee with the Angels, was found in an independent baseball league.

Something tells me, though, that these two players have more left in the tank.

Much of the talk this week surrounding the Yankees has centered on the final game at Yankee Stadium. It is natural for nostalgic love to kick in when something widely considered an historical monument reaches its last legs, but what many have not discussed thus far is how one of the players who calls the stadium home is in the midst of his best season to date. Yes, Mariano Rivera, the 39-yr old closer for the Yankees, the best postseason closer of all time and likely the best overall closer as well, is putting the finishing touches on a masterpiece of a season.

Someone his age, who throws virtually one pitch, will not usually improve as the years pile on, but what he has done this year is nothing short of remarkable. And, for the record, I will be able to show just how great this year is without ever mentioning his saves total. In 68.1 innings, Rivera has given up a measly 41 hits, just 4 of which are home runs. Get ready for his other controllable skills. He has struck out 74 hitters and issued just 6 free passes! 6! That is a 12.33 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is 0.69, and when you add in his two hit batsmen it does not get much higher.

With an 87.6% LOB, which could very well be sustainable for a closer of his ilk, Mo has an ERA of just 1.45 this year. His FIP suggests it should be around 2.06, but still, 2.06 is not too shabby either. His 1996 season was quite dominant as well, but he was still setting up John Wetteland at that juncture. Since 1997, when Rivera became the full-time closer, he has never been better than right now, as he is posting highs/lows in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BAA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and LOB.

Looking at his win based metrics, his 4.36 WPA ranks second in baseball amongst relievers to Brad Lidge, who by all accounts is also having a fantastic season. Rivera leads all relievers in WPA/LI, however. WPA is a better stat to look at for closers primarily because they are pitching in high leverage situations, and they are going to be judged by how well they perform in like situations. It would still depend on how often the closer gets to appear and in what situations, but suffice it to say, Rivera has been the best closer in the AL this year (sorry K-Rod), and only Brad Lidge is going to give him a run for his money in the entire sport. This may be the last year of Yankee Stadium, but its beloved closer is going out in style, producing the best closed season of his career… oddly enough, it will be the first time his team misses the playoffs since he took over the reigns.

Among the unheralded, and somewhat rightfully so, are the middle relief men. The pitchers that don’t get flashy save totals and thus are ignored when it comes to highlights and fantasy talk, but nonetheless provide the backbone for the relief corps. The reason they might rightfully be ignored is due their fungible nature, but that’s a whole ‘nother series of posts.

For now, in my continued fascination with bizarre in-season splits, I want to point out Sean Green of the Seattle Mariners. A somewhat sidearmer, Sean Green started building a reputation as a ROOGY with Seattle in 2006 and cemented it in 2007 with his development of a truly wicked slider. Along side groundball rates that hover around the 60% mark, Green notched enough strikeouts to minimize the damage of his high walk rate.

On the surface that’s not very interesting unless you have a fetish for undervalued relief pitchers, which I do but I’m not going to rely on everyone else sharing in order to sustain an entire post. No, what is slightly more interesting is Sean Green’s dramatic fall off come August for the second consecutive season when it comes to BABIP.

In 2007, Green began the year in Triple-A (where he’s allowed but a single home run over his 91 innings pitched at that level) and appeared in ten games through about the first month before making the move up to Seattle in early May. Over the first 81 games the Mariners played with Green on the roster, he would appear in 37 of them and tossed 44.1 innings with 35 strikeouts, 19 walks and just one home run allowed. For the last third of the season (54 games), Green appeared 27 times but managed just 23.2 innings with just an 18-15 strikeout to walk rate. His home runs allowed stayed at the meager one, but 36 other hits were attained, suggesting some rampant bad luck combined with perhaps a bit of fatigue contributing to the worsening walk rate.

Come 2008 and Green was firmly entrenched in the Mariners bullpen. Once again, his use was heavy as he appeared in half of the Mariners first 106 games and again performed admirably with a 50 to 23 strikeout to walk rate over 57.1 innings. Though his home run rate a skosh higher (he allowed three), it was still a solid overall line for Green. Yet again, the calendar turned to August and since then Green’s appeared in 16 games, had 15.1 innings pitched and once again saw his control abandon him falling to 11 walks against just 10 strikeouts in that period. But again the main culprit was Green’s BABIP as though he’s managed to avoid any home runs during this period, the defense behind him have yielded 24 hits, an eerily similar rate to that of last season.

Hopefully, the Mariners realize this for what it is, minor runs of poor control heightened by bad luck on balls in play as fluky as it is frightening.

Jamie Moyer is 45 years old. Jamie Moyer has thrown 190 innings, has won 15 games, and has a 3.78 ERA. Jamie Moyer is 45 years old.

This is, in two words, historically remarkable. Very few pitchers last long enough to throw until they’re 45, and even fewer do it at a level that adds value to their team. Finding pitchers who are significantly better than the league average starting pitcher at age 45 is almost impossible.

In the history of baseball, the list of guys who have been this good while being this old essentially reads like this:

Satchel Paige, 1952 and 1953
Phil Niekro, 1984
Jamie Moyer, 2008

At age 45 and 46, Paige put up two terrific seasons with the St. Louis Browns, but he did it primarily in relief, only making ten starts combined in 1952 and 1953. While Paige is certainly one of the great pitchers of all time, there’s still a pretty significant difference to pitching out of the bullpen, and Paige’s ’52 and ’53 seasons weren’t that much better than Moyer’s even on the surface. The fact that he was mostly a reliever makes them slightly less impressive.

Niekro’s 1984 season is the real contender to the throne for best pitching season at 45+ years of age. He tossed his knuckler up there for 216 innings, and won 16 games with a 3.09 ERA in his last truly good season. He floated his way to a 3.50 FIP, and despite being a knuckler, he didn’t get any real boost from limiting hits on balls in play. His real success was in keeping the ball in the park, as he allowed just 15 home runs that year.

Moyer’s 2008 doesn’t quite compare – his 4.33 FIP is higher than 1984 Niekro even after adjusting for the relative run scoring eras, and the difference is essentially in that home run rate. Moyer’s alllowed five more home runs than Niekro did and has pitched 25 less innings to boot. The rest of their performances are pretty similar, but those longballs give Niekro a slight edge.

So, instead of saying that Moyer is having the best age 45 season of all time, he has to settle for second best. Ever. In all the great performances we’ve seen this year, let’s not overlook what Moyer’s doing in defying aging.

Michael Aubrey is a name you may have forgotten, unless you’re a Cleveland Indians fan. The first baseman is a former No. 1 draft pick (11th overall in 2003) out of Tulane University. Now 26, Aubrey is finally in the Major Leagues for the first time – a September cup of coffee.

Aubrey was considered the second-best, draft-eligible college hitter prior to the draft (Rickie Weeks was the top choice), according to Baseball America. The is what BA said at the time:

…Aubrey is a better pure hitter than any other college player in the nation. He projects as a .300-plus hitter with lots of doubles and 15-20 homers in the majors. He has a great approach at the plate and rarely gets fooled.

So, what took so long? What caused Aubrey to take six seasons to get to the Majors? And does he still have something in the tank, or is he a shadow of his former self.

The answer to the first question is: Injuries. In his debut season, after signing for more than $2 million, Aubrey played 38 games in A-ball. The next season he played 98 games between High-A ball and Double-A. Then in 2005 he managed just 28 Double-A games. The 2006 season was even worse, injury-wise, as Aubrey appeared in 14 games. The next year, though, he managed a whopping 65 games despite ongoing injuries. This season, Aubrey was able to appear 97 times during the minor league’s 130-game schedule.

The numbers for Aubrey this season do not inspire a lot of confidence, especially given his position at first base… and this leads us to the answer for the second question above. At Double-A, he hit .282/.333/.456 with two homers in 103 at-bats. He walked 7.2 percent of the time, and struck out at a rate of 11.7 percent. After a promotion to Triple-A, Aubrey hit .281/.328/.418 with seven homers in 285 at-bats. He walked just 5.3 percent of the time, with a strikeout rate of 14 percent.

At Double-A, Aubrey’s OPS was .790 and at Triple-A it was .736. His ISO at Double-A was .175 and .137 at Triple-A. An average ISO is considered to be .120, with most “power hitters” exceeding .200. So it’s clear, Aubrey is not a power hitter. And he doesn’t walk much. And he’s never hit above .283 at Double-A or Triple-A.

That said, Aubrey does have value. A .280 average isn’t bad for a bench player. He also swings from the left side, which gives him more value off the pine. Aubrey was also considered an excellent defender coming out of college so he could be a solid late-game option in the field. A part-time role might also help lessen the injuries that have plagued Aubrey’s career to this point.

All this suggests that Aubrey might be better suited for a career in the National League where bench players have more opportunities for regular playing time. In Cleveland, the first base/DH slots are pretty much filled with the likes of Travis Hafner (albeit apparently in a downward spiral) and Ryan Garko on the Major League roster. Cleveland also has first base prospects hot on Aubrey’s heels, such as Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta (currently playing the outfield), Jordan Brown, and Nick Weglarz (also seeing time in the outfield).

There is no question Aubrey still has value to a Major League club, but that team is most likely not Cleveland.