Archive for 2008

Pitcher Batter/Runner Outs Base Score Play
Mike Timlin Carlos Pena 2 12_ 1-4 Home Run

At 11:45 pm eastern time, Carlos Pena took a Mike Timlin fastball over the Green Monster for a three run home run, breaking a 1-1 tie in the 14th inning at Fenway Park. With that home run, the Rays were able to go on and take two of three from the Red Sox and open up a 2 1/2 game lead over Boston in the AL East.

In terms of making the playoffs, the series didn’t matter all that much, as the wild card makes this pennant race mostly irrelevant. The loser of the AL East race will still qualify for postseason baseball, and while I’m sure both teams want to win the division, the stakes aren’t as high as they might be without the wild card.

However, for Tampa Bay fans, it’s hard to overestimate just how much fun those games were. As a Mariner fan growing up in Seattle, 1995 was like living a movie, with walkoff wins and upsets over the teams that always came into the Kingdome and cleaned house. For Rays fans, I’m sure the late game longballs from Dan Johnson on Tuesday and Pena last night will be prominently featured in their postseason hightlight reel.

It’s things like Tampa’s emergence this year, and especially games like the last two days, that make baseball so great. No matter how bad your team is now, we’ve all got memories of improbable wins and late game heroics – I’m happy for Tampa fans that they finally get to experience the joy of meaningful wins in September.

If there’s a troubling tendency of over rated and under rated discussions it’s the nature for players that appear so often on one side or the other that they switch from being perennially under rated to over rated or vice versa. This is usually partly due to repetitive media coverage hammering a player into a certain light (that he is either under rated or over rated) and usually partly due to opinions formed that were valid at the time, but because so much time has passed, that opinion needs to be updated or has become outdated completely.

One such player that I feel has become somewhat overlooked because of an opinion formed a few years ago is Todd Helton. Starting in 2005, when Helton’s slugging dropped off a cliff, his name has been usually referenced in conjunction with his contract and usually using the terms such as untradeable or overpriced.

Because of that, Helton’s started to fly under the radar as his contract comes closer to the end. Assuming his option is declined, Helton is owed just under $57 million over the next three seasons. Because of this high amount of dollars left and the Rockies poor record this season, the rumors of Todd Helton being moved are on the rise. How viable would Helton be as a trade target in a winter that seems overloaded with aging hitting talent?

Helton’s performance is down a lot this season, but for the most part, it’s due to bad luck as his 23.4% line drive rate coupled with just a .298 BABIP suggest. With most of his core numbers intact, it’s likely that Helton’s overall skill hasn’t diminished all that much from his previous years. That would put his bat at around 30 runs over average in value.

Worth the contract? No, not even close, but if the Rockies are indeed intent on moving Helton and willing to eat some salary, then Helton might make sense to a team in the market for a first basemen with strong on base skills.

This morning I wrote about the numerous players from the North roster in the 2003 Eastern League All Star Game who have not only gone on to play in the major leagues, but as everyday regulars. Marc then discussed some of the players from the same roster who failed to live up to their prospect hype, really never making the major leagues. When looking at the South roster, listed below, you will notice that there are very few that actually made it to the major leagues, with only one standout player… hint… he might not be better than Curtis Granderson.

1. Max St. Pierre, C
2. Scott Ackerman, C
3. Jose Castillo, IF
4. Ivanon Coffie, IF
5. Mike Fontenot, IF
6. Luis Gonzalez, IF
7. Josh McKinley, IF
8. Chan Perry, IF
9. Juan Richardson
10. Shawn Garrett, OF
11. Noah Hall, OF
12. Jeff Inglin, OF
13. Grady Sizemore, OF
14. Jeremy Ware, OF
15. Taylor Buchholz, P
16. Sean Burnett, P
17. Fernando Cabrera, P
18. Kyle Denney, P
19. Brian Forystek, P
20. Mike Johnston, P
21. Josh Karp, P
22. Seung Lee, P
23. Homero Rivera, P
24. Brian Schmack, P

Of these players, most baseball fans will have heard of Castillo, Sizemore, Fontenot, Buchholz, Burnett, and that’s it. Fernando Cabrera has also seen his fair share of playing time, pitching out of the Cleveland bullpen for the last several years, but it is definitely clear that this group produced not just less major leaguers, but less everyday or solid players. Sizemore is an all-star, will be an all-star, and is one of the top commodities in the game of baseball. Outside of him, on this list, the players are not too impressive.

Castillo spent 2004-2007 with the Pirates, playing third base, before splitting time between Houston and San Francisco this year. His best WPA/LI came in 2005, at -0.97. With such poor offensive numbers, he would need to have a great glove to stay around, right? Well, according to the +- system, Castillo was a -15 in 2006 at 2B, just about 0 in 2007, all told, and a -6 this year. How he still has a job is a question I just cannot answer.

Sean Burnett debuted in 2004, making 13 starts for the same Pirates. His FIP was 5.06 with a K/BB of 1.07. He spent the next few years in the minors before returning to the Pirates this year, pitching out of the bullpen. His K/9 has gone from 3.77 in 2004 to 6.80 today… however, his BB/9 has risen from 3.52 to 5.69, ultimately producing an abysmal 1.19 K/BB.

Fontenot seems to be solid for the Cubs, OPS’ing .909 in 108 games right now, so we can leave him alone. Taylor Buchholz, however, cannot be left alone. Formerly a prized prospect in the Phillies system, he was traded to the Astros as part of the Billy Wagner deal, and after a poor 2006 season in Houston, was sent to the Rockies, where he has thrived? Buchholz may have the reputation of a prospect gone wrong, but his numbers tell a different story. Last year, in 41 appearances, he posted an ERA of 4.23, a K/BB of 3.05, and an FIP of 3.75. This year, in 63 appearances, a 2.17 ERA, 3.11 K/BB, and an FIP of 3.30.

The amount of players from the South that have succeeded in the major leagues may be lesser than that of the North, but a perennial all-star in Sizemore, and a solid reliever in Buchholz are doing quite well.

As you know by now, my colleague Eric has taken a look at the players who have successfully made it to the Major Leagues from the Double-A Eastern League’s 2003 All-Star Game’s North Division roster. As a complement to that, I am going to look at a few of the players who failed to make good on their potential after that showcase.

A number of the infielders on the North Division roster failed to achieve Major League success, including Chris Basak (Mets), Craig Brazell (Mets), Mike Cervenak (Giants), Alejandro Freire (Giants), and Brian Myrow (Dodgers).

Basak was 24 at the time and his minor league numbers had been inconsistent. His overall stats at Double-A that season were not overly special (.272/.332/.396). Basak has had just one Major League at-bat, which came with the Yankees in 2007. He spent 2008 in the Yankees and Twins organizations as a back-up infielder.

Brazell was 23 at the time of the All-Star game and was considered a fairly good prospect with intriguing raw power. The former fifth round pick out of high school, though, has never been able to tap into it consistently while maintaining a decent average and respectable on-base numbers. He did make some noise in 2007 when he slugged 39 homers in the minors for the Royals. That earned him five games at the Major League level, where he recorded one hit in four at-bats. Brazell took his powerful bat to Japan in 2008.

Cervenak is an interesting story, even though he was 26 when he was selected to the All-Star Game in 2003. He was signed by the Yankees out of an independent baseball league and spent four seasons in Double-A and another four years in Triple-A before making his Major League debut this season with the Phillies at the age of 31. He appeared in eight Major League games and knocked out two hits.

Freire was another minor league veteran first baseman, who originally signed with Houston out of Venezuela. He hasn’t played in the minors since 2006. Myrow is another former independent league player, who has earned short stints in the Majors with San Diego each of the last two seasons.

Outfielder Jeremy Owens (Red Sox) and Josh Rabe (Twins) both flashed promising tools early in their careers. Owens displayed 20-20 potential, but he could never maintain a respectable average and struck out far too many times in his attempt to be Mike Cameron. Rabe has had a couple of chances at the Major League level with the Twins, but he never showed enough power for a corner outfielder.

Cameron Reimers (Blue Jays) was a pitcher who put up some nice win totals and ERAs despite having below average stuff, which caught up to him in Triple-A. He ended his minor league career two years after his All-Star appearance.

Brent Schoening (Twins) won 12 games in 2006 with average stuff at best and then went on to pitch mostly out of the bullpen in Triple-A for two seasons before hanging up his spikes. David Shepard (Yankees) and Josh Stevens (Red Sox) were relievers who spent their entire careers bouncing between independent baseball leagues and minor league baseball. Shepard last pitched in 2006, while Stevens lasted until 2007.

Kevin Vent (Giants) made the All-Star game in 2003 and received a late-season promotion to Triple-A. Sadly, the 26-year-old reliever never pitched again in the minors after that season.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the 2003 South Division roster for failed prospects, after Eric looks at those who made good on their potential later tonight.

Through high school and the early parts of college, I worked as a graphics coordinator in the television truck on sporting events for the station CN8. My job involved compiling the statistics and coming up with interesting tidbits on players so that the graphics operator could make the lower-thirds you see on-screen when hitters come to the plate. In going through some of my old papers yesterday, I stumbled across the rosters we were given at the 2003 Eastern League (AA) All-Star game. As I began down the list I found numerous players who are in the big leagues today, and regulars at that. Tonight we will examine the South roster, but for now, here are the players from the North roster that have made the majors.

1. Guillermo Quiroz, BAL, -0.97 WPA/LI in 50 games for the Orioles
2. Kelly Shoppach, CLE, 0.40 WPA/LI, leads AL catchers with 17 HR
3. Jason Bartlett, TB, -1.45 WPA/LI for the Rays, an everyday regular
4. Terry Tiffee, LAD, 1-4 in 5 PA this year, 54 G for MIN in 2005
5. Kevin Youkilis, BOS, 2.41 WPA/LI, All-Star
6. Gabe Gross, TB, 0.29 WPA/LI, acquired from Brewers earlier this year
7. Alex Rios, TOR, 0.66 WPA/LI, OPS from .814-.865 last three years
8. Kevin Correia, SF, been in majors since 2003, -0.95 WPA/LI this year
9. Jorge de la Rosa, COL, -0.94 WPA/LI, 4.05 FIP
10. Neal Musser, KC, made 17 appearances at a 6.04 FIP last year, just 1 scoreless inning in 2008
11. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY, career 3.90 FIP, 9.05 WPA/LI in 3+ big league seasons

Fifty percent of the players on this North roster are currently in the major leagues, with Youkilis and Wang headlining the group. There are a few others that had cups of coffee, such as Josh Rabe, and Mike Cervanek, but I will leave it to Marc to take a look at those who have failed to capitalize on their past minor league success. I tried my hardest to remember Youkilis and Wang back in 2003, but really could not draw out any real memories. It is safe to say, though, that I did not peg one as a key driving force on a world series team, or the other as a potential Yankees ace. Tonight we’ll take a look at the South roster, where fewer players have made the big leagues, but at least one all-star stands out.

When I think of a guy who gets a lot of infield hits, a short slap hitting speed burner comes to mind. Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez… those are the kinds of players that I think of when I imagine the league leader in infield hits. And those guys are all on the list, but they’re nowhere near the top. In fact, no one’s particularly close to the guy who has racked up 38 infield hits this year, six more than the next best guy and 13 more than the guy after that.

So who is the king of successful worm burning?

Hunter Pence.

Yes, the same Pence with 21 home runs and a career .498 slugging percentage. The same Pence who has laid down exactly one bunt in his two years in the big leagues and had 13 infield hits last season.

Pence has seen his IFH% increase by 150%, going from 7.3% last year to 17.4% this year. That infield hit rate is also the best in the majors, where he’s followed by Jason Bay and Ryan Braun.

Pence, Bay, and Braun – infield hit machines? You could have given me 1,000 guesses, and I’d have never come up with those three names. I’m sure there’s a real correlation between infield hits and speed (Ichiro doesn’t get 57 infield hits in 2004 if he runs like Prince Fielder), but there’s pretty clearly a big luck factor as well.

There’s a revolution going on this year in Florida this year and it’s happening in perhaps the most underrated aspect of baseball today. According to John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system from the Fielding Bible, the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays were the worst two teams in baseball last season in team defense, clocking in at 88 and 107 plays below average respectively.

Using Tango’s figure of 0.8 runs per play, we come up with figures of 70 and 86 runs these defenses cost their teams’ bottom lines. Those are exceptionally damaging magnitudes. For reference, according to wOBA, Barry Bonds was worth a little over 60 runs over average back in both 2003 and in 2004. Moving their defense up to league average would be akin to removing a replacement level player from your lineup and inserting Barry Bonds from that era.

Fast forward to almost the end of 2008 and how are those teams doing now? Well, we don’t have final numbers from Dewan’s system just yet, but a similar plus/minus system, used by The Hardball Times, gives us some clues. They have the Rays at a positive 13 plays (10 runs) and the Marlins at just negative 16 plays (13 runs).

If those values hold through the end of the season, and assuming they generally reflect what Dewan’s system will report, that would represent an improvement of 57 runs for the Marlins and an astounding 96 runs for the Rays. You want a reason why the Rays have become the team they are this year? Well there’s several, but don’t you dare overlook defense. When a team can add 100 runs to it’s net runs scored – runs allowed total, that’s a huge swing in success’ direction.

During last night’s Phillies/Marlins game, I happened to catch a glimpse of a pitch released by Marlins reliever Joe Nelson, that featured such an odd grip that I had to rewind the DVR several times. I called my brother in the room to confirm I wasn’t going crazy, because Nelson’s grip on this changeup or splitter, looked like Dr. Spock’s hand signal in which the index and middle fingers have noticeable divide between the ring finger and pinky. He laughed, and said he heard the story while listening to Vin Scully a few months back, and that it was how Nelson threw his changeup.

While most people hold their changeup with three fingers or a circle-grip, Nelson holds it like a Vulcan from Star Trek. Apparently, when he warms up in the bullpen, his first action involves stretching the divide between his fingers with a golf ball. While Nelson served up a three-run longball to Jayson Werth in last night’s affair, he has been pretty nasty out of the pen for the Fish this year.

After four surgeries in ten years, Nelson is in the midst of just his second full season in major league baseball. He last pitched more than, well, three games back in 2006, when he made 43 appearances for the Royals. While his numbers then were not too impressive, he has definitely gotten the job done this year. In 49 games for a very surprising and pesky Marlins team, Nelson has allowed just 33 hits in 45 innings, walking 20 and striking out 51 hitters. His ability to fan hitters has led to a 10.20 K/9, which somewhat counteracts his 4.0 BB/9 by resulting in a 2.55 K/BB.

He allows baserunners to the meager tune of a 1.18 WHIP, and, once there, 85% have been stranded. This has helped him produce a tremendous 1.80 ERA. His controllable skills have been solid—a 3.46 FIP—but nowhere near as good as that ERA would suggest. Essentially a two-pitch righty, with a 90 mph fastball 65% of the time and the vulcan taking up most of the remaining deliveries, Nelson has been a great story this year that next to nobody, inside or outside of Florida, has noticed. This might just be a career year, never again to be replicated, but after fighting his way through surgery after surgery, all to make it to the big leagues, Joe Nelson has definitely delivered.

There are two talented catchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues and both of those players were selected in the first round of the 2007 draft. Matt Wieters was recently named the Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, while J.P. Arencibia is not far behind in the discussion of the best catching prospects in baseball.

Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles
Ht: 6-4, Wt: 230
Born: May 1986
Drafted: 2007 fifth overall, Georgia Tech

Wieters does it all very well: He hits, he plays defence and he leads by example. The hulking catcher did not play pro ball in his draft year due to signing late but he began 2008 in High-A ball. He hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 229 at-bats. Wieters was then promoted to Double-A where he performed even better. He hit .365/.460/.625 with 12 homers in 208 at-bats. The switch-hitter batted .393 against southpaws and .354 versus right-handers. Overall on the season, Wieters walked 82 times with 76 strikeouts. Defensively, he nailed 40 percent of base runners attempting to steal. He also made nine errors with three passed balls.

J.P. Arencibia | Toronto Blue Jays
Ht: 6-1, Wt: 210
Born: January 1986
Drafted: 2007 21st overall, University of Tennessee

One of the biggest differences between the two players is Arencibia’s lack of patience, especially compared to Wieters’. The Jays prospect walked just 18 times on the season with 101 strikeouts in 510 combined at-bats. Even so, Arencibia hit .315/.344/.560 with 13 homers in 248 High-A at-bats. He was then promoted to Double-A where he hit .282/.302/.496 with 14 homers in 262 at-bats. Overall, he drove in 105 runs. Arencibia has more raw power potential than Wieters, but the Orioles catcher is the superior hitter at this point. Arencibia is also still a little rough around the edges when it comes to catching (10 errors, 15 passed balls), although he did throw out 34 percent of base stealers.

The Jays are sending Arencibia to the Arizona Fall League specifically to work on his patience at the plate and they do not care how well he hits as long as he works the count to his advantage. Wieters has also been sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is a little puzzling considering his already-solid skills and the long season that he endured during his first pro season. A regular full season of minor league baseball is already much longer than a college season, especially when a player is squatted down behind home plate. But that said, a little extra hard work never hurt anybody.

Last night, Eric detailed the virtues of Max Scherzer and laid out the case for why he should be a member of the D’backs rotation. This morning, I’ll expand on that a bit, using a graph of the Pitch F/x data from his Sunday start to look at what he was throwing at the Dodgers.

The first thing to notice is that there are way more little dots above the 95 line than there are below. He was throwing some serious cheese on Sunday. His average fastball was 96.1 MPH, and he sustained it for 94 pitches. His last fastball of the night clocked in at 97.1 – not exactly the telltale sign of a guy who was fatigued.

Scherzer wasn’t exactly interested in changing speeds, either. As Eric noted, he throws the fastball a lot, and Sunday was no exception. 63 of the 92 pitches that Pitch F/x registered were fastballs – Scherzer’s modus operendi is apparently “hit it if you can”, because he’s not messing around with secondary pitches all that often.

That isn’t to say those pitches aren’t any good, however. Scherzer got 21 swinging strikes in the game on Sunday, but 9 of them came on either his slider or his change-up. Considering he only threw 29 offspeed pitches (if you can call an 88 MPH slider an offspeed pitch), getting 9 swinging strikes is fantastic. He loves his fastball, and rightfully so, but the slider and change both have their uses. The slider, especially, can be a knockout pitch against right-handed hitters.

The key to Scherzer sticking in the rotation will be the development of that change-up. Like most RH pitchers with terrific fastball/slider combinations, he’s already death to right-handed hitters – they’re hitting just .160/.261/.222 against him this year. However, those pitches aren’t nearly as effective against left-handed hitters, and the numbers bare that out – LH hitters are hitting .322/.406/.424 against Scherzer.

On Sunday, Scherzer only threw 4 change-ups in the 39 pitches he threw LH hitters. He clearly doesn’t trust it yet, but if he’s going to stay in the rotation, he’s going to have to have at least a serviceable change that he can mix in against lefties. Otherwise, you’ll just see teams stacking the line-up with LH bats and getting a pretty huge platoon advantage.

His audition for the rotation went very well, but he showed both the reason why Arizona should be both thrilled about his abilities but also aware of his current limitations.