Archive for 2008

As we get entrenched in September baseball, we’ve narrowed it down to just a few teams that still harbor rational playoff hopes. In the American League we have Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago and Anaheim. Unless something crazy happens, Boston, Tampa and Anaheim are in and it’s a playoff for the Central division crown between Chicago and Minnesota to determine the fourth team. Either way we have two teams returning from last season’s October and two new entrants.

Over in the National League things are a bit murkier. The Cubs are nearly a lock and right now Milwaukee looks solidly in as well, though their lead on the Wild Card isn’t as sacrosanct as Boston’s is in the junior circuit. Arizona and Los Angeles are fighting it out for the West division and that’s a winner take all prize because the loser has no chance at sneaking in with the Wild Card. Between New York and Philadelphia in the East, there’s a slim, but not insignicant chance that both could get in if they rattle off some wins and Milwaukee falters. Six teams are still in it, three of whom joined us for postseason play last year.

Beyond that, what is still very much in the air are the playoff seedings. Back to the American League, the winner between the Twins and White Sox is likely to end up with the third seed, and because of the rule that the Wild Card team cannot play a team in its own division in the first round, Anaheim’s final record doesn’t matter at all (opponent-wise) provided they finish ahead of the Central champ. Instead, it all comes down to whether the Rays can hold off the Red Sox for the Eastern lead. If so, regardless of the overall record (again, provided it’s better than MIN/CHA) they’ll face the Central winner and Anaheim and Boston will face off. If instead Boston grabs the division lead then the Rays and Angels will square off.

In the National League, the Cubs are almost certain to nab the top overall seed and most likely the Brewers are going to nab the Wild Card, which creates the same conflict as in the American League and means the Cubs are off to face the NL West winner (which is actually better for them) while the Brewers will get the NL East champ. Of course, if Milwaukee stumbles and the Wild Card comes out of the East, then that team will head to Chicago and the NL East and West winners face off.

It’s worth pointing out that we’re going to be getting at least three new teams in the playoffs for this year which is a healthy turnover. For those teams that are now comfortably (relatively, no fan is likely entirely comfortable until their team has clinched) in the playoffs, these are the races worth following. As we all know, anything can happen in the playoffs and even more so, anything can happen in a best-of-five series.

Last week, Dave previewed the important Dodgers-Diamondbacks series by discussing the three great pitching matchups on tap. Dan Haren vs. Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb vs. Chad Billingsley, and Randy Johnson vs. Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Big Unit was scratched from yesterday’s start, paving the way for rookie Max Scherzer to step in. Scherzer, the 24-yr old flamethrowing prospect, had success earlier in the season, however, the return of Doug Davis relegated him to the bullpen, before he was eventually sent back to AAA when the Snakes needed a more durable reliever.

Johnson used to be a flamethrower, as well, arguably staking claim as the best left-handed power pitcher of all time, but it seems the torch of heat may be passing to Scherzer. Now, I’m not saying Max is a hall of famer or anything along those lines, but he definitely deserves a spot in this Diamondbacks rotation. Personal affinities aside—Max and I speak routinely through e-mail as he is very into sabermetrics—his mere 13 appearances this year, 4 of which were starts, have produced a WPA/LI of 0.44. Mark Buehrle’s is 0.50, as is John Lannan’s. Joe Blanton, the supposed answer to the Phillies rotation troubles, has been worth just 0.37 wins above an average pitcher.

In 39 innings this season, he has surrendered just 32 hits, only two of which are home runs. His controllable skills only get better, as his 45 strikeouts and 15 walks translate to a 10.38 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Of balls put in play, an exorbitant 31.2% have been line drives, which means his .316 BABIP is much lower perhaps than what should be expected, but this will not persist and can be expected to even out at some point.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he throws his 94.4 mph fastball 72.3% of the time, with 7.01 horizontal inches of movement and 8.76 vertical inches. His slider is thrown 15% of the time, with the changeup accounting for most of the leftover. His changeup looks particularly effective, too, as it comes in almost a full 10 mph slower, at 84.8 mph. Additionally, he has essentially sustained the horizontal movement from his fastball, but lessened the vertical movement, meaning it will not “rise” as much as his heater. Whether in the rotation or temporarily working out of the bullpen, Scherzer needs to be in the big leagues. If he has the capability to miss bats like he does at the major league level, being in AAA serves no purpose.

To read my interview with Max, in which he explains his relationship with sabermetrics and analysis, and how it pertains to him as a pitcher, click here.

Despite the Indians poor season, I believe there’s a pretty decent case to be made that Grady Sizemore has been the best player in the American League this year. He’s already gone 30-30 while playing a nifty center field, and his 3.09 WPA/LI is the best in the AL for an up-the-middle player. Ask pretty much anyone who the best CF in the AL is, and they’ll tell you it’s Sizemore.

They might not be right, however. I think, at some point, we have to consider whether Curtis Granderson might be the superior ballplayer right now (though the time he spent on the DL hurts his MVP chances). He doesn’t get the notoriety that Sizemore does, but he’s been an elite player for two years now. Here are some comparative graphs.

Sizemore was much better in 2006, but the last two years, Granderson has been as good or arguably better. He’s compiled 5.84 WPA/LI over 1,088 at-bats while Sizemore has racked up 5.31 WPA/LI over 1,176 at-bats. Despite playing a bit less, Granderson’s been more valuable offensively even on a counting stat basis. On a per at-bat basis, it hasn’t even been close.

We can’t ignore 2006, however. It happened, and it still matters. The up-to-date Marcel projections, which include the last three years of data, have Sizemore’s true talent level as at .284/.380/.503 and Granderson at .294/.372/.493. Very close, but a slight edge to Sizemore, thanks to the difference between their 2006 performances.

Both are considered to be quality defensive center fielders, and both have posted strong defensive numbers over the years. Granderson’s running a -10 in the Fielding Bible’s +/- system this year, but he was +20 last year and +12 the year before, so that’s probably just an outlier. Scouts love his defense, and until this year, the numbers had agreed. There’s no reason to believe that he’s suddenly turned into a problem with the glove.

So, if they’re basically equal offensively in true talent level, with Granderson being better the last two years, and there’s no compelling evidence to believe that Sizemore is superior defensively, how can we justify the belief that Sizemore is clearly the best CF in the AL?

I’m not saying Granderson’s definitely better, but I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s every bit as good as his more famous peer down in Cleveland.

Money may not buy happiness, but it does allow you the flexibility to take some risks. The New York Yankees have taken a few gambles in recent years during the annual amateur draft. The most-publicized risk was drafting North Carolina State right-hander Andrew Brackman (and paying him $3.35 million), who needed Tommy John surgery before he would even throw one professional pitch.

Another move one year earlier, though, that flew under the radar was drafting college reliever Mark Melancon out of the University of Arizona. Melancon was widely considered the best – and most advanced – college reliever in the draft. But he was suffering from a strained elbow ligament, and whispers of Tommy John surgery persisted.

Melancon fell out of the first round of the draft and was snapped up by the Yankees with the 284th selection in the ninth round. The Yankees gave him third round money ($600,000) and sent him to the New York Penn League. Melancon had not pitched since April due to the elbow injury and he lasted just 6.2 innings in pro ball before being shut down to go under the knife.

The 2007 season was a year of rehab for the right-hander but he came back strong in 2008. Melancon began the season in High-A ball and allowed 26 hits and six walks in 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out 20. Melancon was then promoted to Double-A where he worked 49.2 innings and allowed 32 hits and 12 walks. He also struck out 47 and induced two groundball outs for every flyball out. Melancon then finished out the regular season in Triple-A. He allowed just 11 hits and four walks in 20 innings. He struck out 22 batters.

Overall, in his first season back from surgery, Melancon was 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 95 innings. He allowed 69 hits and just 22 walks, which is impressive considering command is supposed to be the last thing that returns after Tommy John surgery. It’s clear Melancon is close to being a large part of the future of the Yankees’ bullpen.

*The 2006 draft was a huge help to the Yankees’ pitching depth, as the organization also scooped up Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances and Daniel McCutchen.

When the Mets traded for Johan Santana and promptly signed him to a six year contract extension, I was one of few Phillies fans actually excited that their rivals had just acquired arguably the best pitcher in the game. My sentiment was that, come September, I could not wait for a Santana vs. Cole Hamels matchup with the division potentially on the line; two of the league’s best lefties, with the best two changeups in baseball, squaring off with the collective fanbase of each team hanging onto every pitch. You can imagine that when Sunday’s game was moved to 8 pm EST, to be the ESPN national Sunday Night Game, everything I looked forward to before the season had gone to that next level.

What occurred, however, was a pretty one-sided beating in which the score did not tell the whole story. The Mets may have won 6-3, but the deficit seemed much larger than that, as the Phillies failed to do anything against Johan Santana for virtually the entire game. Hamels pitched poorly, giving Carlos Delgado’s much-publicized book some great notes to add, and the Phillies failed to put the finishing touches on a sweep that would have put them in a tie for first place.

With 19 games to play, the Mets are in the driver’s seat with a two game lead. Last year, with 17 games remaining, the Mets led by 7 games and managed to lose the division. One of the primary reasons for that collapse was a sweep at the hands of the Phillies, which directly loosened their divisional grip by three games. Unlike then, the Phillies and Mets are now finished playing each other for the season, which means the division will be decided by how they fare against their remaining opponents.

The Phillies start a three game set with the Marlins tonight, before playing the Brewers for four. Following that seven game homestand, they go to Atlanta and then Florida for three games each, before returning home to finish the year out against the Braves and Nationals. All told, they have 3 against the Nationals, 4 against the Brewers, 6 against the Marlins, and 6 against the Braves. The Mets, on the other hand, have 3 against the Marlins, 4 against the Cubs, 6 against the Nationals, and 6 against the Braves. It seems that the division will be decided by which team fares the best against potential NL East spoilers and the top-tier NL Central teams. Or, the Marlins could win all six against the Phillies and all three against the Mets and win the division.

This September might not have the exact makings of 2007, but it still has the potential to be a very fun and intense stretch of 19 games. Throw in the close proximity between the DBacks-Dodgers and Twins-White Sox and there are three potential divisions that could be decided over the last few games.

Back in May, we noticed that Nelson Cruz was blistering the baseball in the PCL and deserved another shot in the major leagues. The Rangers didn’t have any problems scoring runs, though, so Cruz stayed in Triple-A for most of the season, only finally getting back to Texas on August 25th.

He’s doing his best to show the world that he really should have been up months ago. In 46 at-bats since his return, Cruz is hitting .326/.404/.609, showing that his monstrous performance in Oklahoma wasn’t a fluke. He’s always been able to hit a fastball a long way, but with his more selective approach at the plate, Cruz is a bonafide major league hitter.

Despite the solid performances from Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and Brandon Boggs, not to mention that Hamilton kid, the Rangers need to find room for Cruz in their line-up. Yes, Texas’ offense is already awesome, but sometimes the easiest way to improve a ballclub is not to address the glaring weakness – there’s not a cap on runs scored, and having Cruz’s bat in the line-up will help make up for the fact that they still can’t pitch and his teammates can’t field.

It looks like Cruz is going to play pretty much everyday the rest of the year, and hopefully, Texas will realize that their best line-up going forward has Nelson Cruz in it everyday.

We can rationally tell ourselves that small sample sizes have to be taken with caution (and they do), but no matter how much we believe that to be true, they will still affect us. It’s a byproduct of a psychological bias known as anchoring and for the most part it’s extremely difficult to avoid falling victim to. The aspect of anchoring (or focalism as it’s also known) that we must be aware of for baseball purposes is sometimes referred to as the adjustment problem. In a nutshell, the adjustment problem is when you are asked to make a value judgment on something. Almost without fail, your brain will go back to some previously heard value and adjust from there. Basically, it’s letting an extremely (and sometimes completely irrelevant) small sample hold a sway over your perception and it’s tough to avoid.

What I am specifically getting at is performances in April and how they influence opinions of players for the rest of the year. A hot start in April establishes a baselines of performance at a high level and probably gets mentioned a lot in the media. From that point forward, no matter how well that player performs, unless you are intimately familiar with the player’s performance, your first instinct is to go back to those numbers you were hearing about in April and adjust from there. This is similarly true for cold starts. All that’s needed is for the performance to be extreme enough to get mentioned and for you to not pay that much attention to the player at other times. Need a few examples?

These aren’t going to apply for everyone, we don’t all have the same strength of bias and like I mentioned above, if you happen to follow a player day to day whether because he’s on your favorite team or rival team or fantasy team or whatever then you will not be as susceptible to the adjustment because your brain has many more data points stored away. The key is not having heard or seen a player’s stat line for awhile. For American League fans, quick, how has Miguel Tejada and Carlos Delgado’s season gone? Think of their line in your head right now. Now go click on those links and see how you did?

Most of you, if you qualify above, would have over-estimated Miguel Tejada’s line and under-estimated Carlos Delgado’s. Tejada got off to a fast start in Houston and made some news as they flirted with contention and since Tejada had come over via trade and posted a near 1.000 OPS in April. But since May 4th, Tejada has posted just a .263/.295/.367 line. Delgado has been the opposite. He sat at a meager .532 OPS on April 27th and was subject to some stories about how the hope for a bounce back from his previous year’s struggles were not to be. All Delgado has done since then is hit .274/.360/.542 and he’s now up to a .840 OPS on the year and making a case for his option to be picked up by the Mets.

A last one, this time for the National League folks. How’s Jacoby Ellsbury doing? He was in the news a lot this spring for his fast start to the year paired with the Red Sox defending title and his memorable October. Through Ellsbury’s first 28 games this season he had an .857 OPS and an impressive 17 walks to just nine strikeouts. But since then, Ellsbury is hitting just .258/.304/.347 with 66 strikeouts to just 22 walks and his season OPS is now under .700.

Beware those early numbers.

I was watching a game recently when the broadcasters began a discussion of possible American League MVP candidates and Dustin Pedroia’s name was brought up in a serious manner. I was a little floored by the notion. Do not get me wrong, Pedroia is a fine player and a great asset to the Red Sox, but MVP? No. There are several factors as to why not.

First, and this is a giant one, park factors. Fenway Park is a playground for right-handed pull hitters ramping up the amount of singles and doubles hitters get because of the green monster. Guess what Pedroia is? In fact, it is such a huge influence that Pedroia’s park-adjusted wOBA is a whopping 11 points below his un-adjusted number.

Secondly, there is defensive position to consider. Yes, Pedroia plays second base, a tough position to play, but as Tango’s positional adjustments show, second base is behind catcher, shortstop, centerfield and is tied with (and this is important) third base.

Finally, we have the actual offensive production. Pedroia is good, yes I admit as much and his play at second base only helps, but there are just far better candidates for the MVP when you consider everything listed above. Joe Mauer has been better with the bat, plays a much tougher position and even works better under the whole “valuable, not best” argument because without Mauer there’s no way the Twins are in the playoff hunt while without Pedroia, the Red Sox are still very good. Not to mention that Joe Mauer is tops in the AL in WPA. Staying in the Central division, Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are two excellent centerfielders who both have been more valuable with the bat and glove than Pedroia.

Pedroia ranks 18th in the AL in WPA/LI and it’s in that list that we find yet another worthy candidate who seems to be going overlooked, Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez plays a credible third base so he gets the same defensive credit as Pedroia, but his bat just dominates everyone in the AL. Again going by wOBA, Rodriguez has been worth over five more runs than any other player has and most of the ones near him are DHs or corner outfielders. For best hitter in the AL this season so far, it comes down to one choice, Alex Rodriguez.

This off-season, the free agent starting pitching market was not much to get excited about. Guys like Carlos Silva were given, well, ludicrous deals that mostly everyone criticized. One of the starting pitchers I expected to get a similar deal was Kyle Lohse. Things did not exactly work out that way, as Lohse’s asking price steadily declined. The Cardinals eventually signed Lohse to a 1-yr, 4 million dollar deal, that is making them look like geniuses right now.

In 30 starts, Lohse has arguably been their staff ace, producing a 3.76 ERA supported by a 3.85 FIP. His 5.24 K/9 is on the lower end of his career numbers, however a decrease in his walk rate from the last few years has resulted in a very respectable 2.41 K/BB ratio. He gets hit around a bit, but you could do much worse than a 1.29 WHIP. Couple that with an above average 73.6% strand rate, and more often than not, a successful pitcher will surface.

Is his performance surprising? Yes, but there were some telltale signs that he might actually be improving. Since 2004, his K/BB has essentially risen each year, while his HR/9 has decreased. Right now, his HR/9 of 0.79 is by far the lowest it has ever been. One potential reason for this change is his GB/FB, which, at 1.47, is higher than any rate he has posted. Additionally, he is using his fastball much more this year, cutting back on his changeups.

Lohse was pretty much the definition of a league average pitcher coming into the season, and while he may not have gotten the long-term, big-money deal he sought prior to this year, a WPA/LI of 1.70 that still has room to grow should get him something a bit more lucrative this off-season.

Tonight, the most important series of the 2008 season kicks off – the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a weekend set that will go a long way in determining who will win the NL West. With just 1.5 half games separating the two, the Diamondbacks lead certainly isn’t safe, and a series win would be huge for both clubs.

Now, generally, a September matchup of two teams fighting for one playoff spot is exciting enough, but this series provides a little extra boost – just take a look at these pitching matchups.

Friday night: Dan Haren (2.98 FIP) vs Lowe (3.34 FIP)
Saturday afternoon: Brandon Webb (3.18 FIP) vs Chad Billingsley (3.13 FIP)
Sunday afternoon: Randy Johnson (3.84 FIp) vs Clayton Kershaw (4.24 FIP)

In the opener, the guy with the second lowest FIP in the NL goes up against the guy with the sixth lowest FIP. Haren and Lowe both have excellent command, while Haren misses a few more bats and Lowe gets a few more groundballs. Both are legitimate frontline starting pitchers – there’s no real advantage for either club.

Game two features Cy Young winner Webb against Billingsley, one of the game’s emerging aces. Webb pitches to contact and throws more strikes, but Billingsley’s stuff is a bit more electric and allows him to be among the league leaders in strikeouts. Webb’s last few starts haven’t been good, however, and there’s questions about how healthy his arm is – due to that question mark, the Dodgers might have a slight advantage in game two.

The rubber match on Sunday is a classic “passing of the torch” type of ballgame, as the best left-handed pitcher of our generation faces off with one of the best young southpaws we’ve seen in a long time. The Big Unit is still going strong, even though he turns 45 next week, while Kershaw is beginning to find the form that made scouts so excited about his future in the minors. Johnson’s not the flamethrower he was, so Kershaw will be the one lighting up radar guns on Sunday, but the difference in command makes Johnson a better pitcher right now. Kershaw’s certainly got the talent to throw a gem, however, so even if Arizona has an edge, the Dodgers can certainly steal the going away game.

If Arizona can pull of a sweep, they’ll probably nail the coffin shut. However, with the arms that the Dodgers are sending to the hill, D’Backs fans shouldn’t be counting on picking up three wins this weekend. A 2-1 series win for one of the two teams is the most likely outcome. Arizona would put themselves in a strong position to win the division if they take the series, but LA can make it a coin-toss if they can pick up two wins.

No matter who you’re a fan of, this should be highly entertaining baseball this weekend.