Archive for 2008

The Cincinnati Reds have two middle infielders headed to the annual Arizona Fall League that have an opportunity to contribute to the major league club, and they also represent good value as former third round and seventh round draft picks.

Chris Valaika, who was signed out of Cal State Fullerton University, had a successful beginning to his 2008 season when he hit .363/.393/.585 in 135 High-A at-bats, with seven homers. He was then promoted to Double-A, where he posted a line of .301/.352/.443 with 11 homers in 379 at-bats. Valaika is not a power hitter but he could be good for 10-15 homers at the major league level, while playing a passable shortstop. His lack of patience has haunted him throughout his pro career and he walked just 35 times in 514 at-bats this season. The right-handed batter handled Double-A southpaws with ease and posted a line of .343/.385/.565 in 108 at-bats.

Justin Turner followed a similar path to Valaika this season. Turner began in High-A ball and hit .316/.384/.390 in 136 at-bats. The infielder, who relies more on small ball than a power stroke, then hit .289/.359/.432 in 280 Double-A at-bats with eight homers to go along with 33 walks and 54 strikeouts. Turner, a right-handed batter, should be valuable coming off the bench for the Reds after hitting .372/.423/.535 against southpaws in Double-A (86 at-bats). The soon-to-be 24-year-old should begin 2009 in Triple-A and could appear in Cincinnati before mid-season.

Valaika and Turner likely won’t unseat incumbents Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez in 2009, but they could give some fringe major league veterans a run for their money, like Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Hairston, and Andy Phillips.

Back towards the beginning of the year, over at Statistically Speaking, I posted twenty questions ranging in difficulty as a fun little break. The third question—Who is the only player to hit two grand slams in the same inning and off whom did he hit them?—can be answered with the names Fernando Tatis and Chan Ho Park. Tatis mashed two grand slams off of Park back in April, 1999. With their careers seemingly over, both players had become answers to that question as opposed to players teams rely on or employ.

After several injury-plagued years with the Cardinals and Expos, Tatis returned home to the Dominican Republic to spend time with his family. He did not play baseball in 2004 or 2005, save for some spring training with the then Devil Rays in 2004. The desire to build a church in his hometown of San Pedro de Macoris prompted his return to baseball. He appeared in 28 games for the Orioles in 2006, producing an .813 OPS in limited action.

Last season, he signed a minor league deal with the Mets and spent the entire year on their AAA squad. One of his teammates was none other than Chan Ho Park, also looking to get his career back in order, albeit under different circumstances. Tatis was out of baseball and Park, well, ought to have been. Park ended up making one mostly terrible start for the Mets while Tatis awaited his chance. Meanwhile, the church he had been saving money to build was built while he played in the minors.

This year, Park returned “home” to Los Angeles, going back to where his career began. Though his controllable skills are nothing to write home about—a 4.56 FIP—his ERA is a mere 3.05 and he has been very effective out of the Dodgers bullpen. Tatis finally got his callup thanks to injuries to both Moises Alou and Ryan Church. He has not disappointed either. In just 83 games, Tatis is hitting .291/.360/.482, with 11 home runs.

His knack for timely hitting has resulted in a 2.34 WPA, which, even in just half of a season, outranks Nick Markakis, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Giambi. Now, his WPA/LI is 0.57, much lower than the standard win probability metric suggests, which portends much clutch hitting. Park has been the same way, as his 0.75 WPA exceeds his -0.14 WPA/LI. However, as we mentioned yesterday, WPA isn’t a bad stat to use when looking at relievers, since the situations in which they pitch are usually so crucial.

Tatis has spent most of his time in the outfield, where he is a +3 defender in LF and a -2 in RF. Basically, he is an average fielder with an above average hitting line. If this was some youngster called up from AAA, we would likely be praising him, but because of the name recognition and the semblance of shock that Tatis is still playing baseball, that wow factor does not seem to exist as much. Something we can wow at, however, is that Park has somehow increased his fastball velocity from 88.4-88.5 mph in recent years to just about 93 mph this year. It’s normal for players to fluctuate within maybe 0.3-0.5 mph from one year to the next, but 4.5-5 mph?

Tatis and Park might no longer be the versions of themselves from the mid-90’s, but the 2008 editions have been quite productive.

Last night I brought up the subject of under appreciated hitters and am going to continue it tonight with Aubrey Huff in Baltimore.

Drafted by Tampa in the 5th round of the 1998 draft, Huff reached the majors in a scant two seasons and after a rough go of it for the first couple seasons, established himself as an offensive force in 2002 as a sometimes outfielder, sometimes third baseman. Over the next few years as he stuck with Tampa, and Tampa was still poorly run and bad, Aubrey Huff consistently came up in trade talks each summer only to stay put. Finally, in his last year of team control, Huff was dealt off at the deadline to the Astros for Ben Zobrist and Mitch Talbot. Huff would spend a few months with Houston hitting a little over league average and then depart for Baltimore at age 30 on a three-year, $20 million contract.

A shift to primarily being the DH last season seemed to do nothing to hold off Huff’s gradual decline, which makes 2008 all the more surprising. Huff isn’t really doing better at drawing walks as the slight up tick in his walk rate is due to an increase in the amount of intentional walks he receiving. His batted ball profile shows no departure from his norm either. No, Aubrey Huff has seemingly just re-learned how to hit home runs.

Is he hitting the ball harder? To look for an indication of that, I turned to his Hit Tracker numbers, but comparing 2007 to 2008 (and even comparing prior years as well) shows no significant difference in the average distance or average speed of his home runs. It could be that Huff is hitting the ball harder and thus some of what would have been doubles are now just creeping over the fence and keeping his averages low, but I’d still expect to see some higher numbers at the peak and he doesn’t have any home runs under 350 true feet this season.

What does all this add up to? I’m not sure, but given Huff’s age and track record, I am not overly confident that Huff will maintain this level into 2009 and beyond. However, his performance this year and one year left on his contract could make him a valuable trade target this winter if Baltimore concludes that their chances of overcoming Boston and Tampa next season are not high enough to warrant holding on to veteran players.

Quick, name the top two relievers in terms of WPA/LI… no, it isn’t Francisco Rodriguez. Not Brad Lidge, either. Brad Ziegler is a good guess, but sadly, no, he is not in the top two. If you said Mariano Rivera, kudos, because you’re getting warmer, but he comes in at spot number three. The top two relievers this year have been Hong-Chih Kuo of the Dodgers and Scott Downs of the Blue Jays. How many of you honestly guessed them? And, for the record, a guess does not involve hovering over the leaders tab, clicking ‘majors’, clicking ‘win probability’, clicking ‘relievers’, and then sorting by WPA/LI.

Kuo, a Dodgers lefty, leads all of baseball with a 2.35 WPA/LI, which basically means he has been worth almost two and a half wins more than an average relief pitcher. Downs, a Toronto lefty, has a 2.19 WPA/LI, close to Kuo, but still distanced by a good margin. To further clarify, Lidge ranks 13th at 1.36, Ziegler 17th at 1.34, and K-Rod 34th at 0.99.

While both pitchers have some statistical similarities, it seems they are getting their jobs done in different ways. Kuo has pitched in 40 games, three of which were starts, amassing 78.1 innings. He has allowed just 55 hits, only four of which left the yard. Additionally, his very low walk-rate—19 total in his 78.1 innings—has combined with the lack of hits to produce a 0.94 WHIP. He also strikes out a ton of hitters to the tune of 94 total and a 10.80 K/9.

Essentially, Kuo barely allows balls to leave the yard, barely allows baserunners, and strikes out many. Yep, I would say that is a formula for a tremendous relief pitcher. On the year, his 2.07 ERA is largely supported by a 2.20 FIP. His 79.8% LOB is great but not earth-shattering and is definitely sustainable, as we have seen elite relievers sustain very high strand rates. Kuo, who throws his 93 mph fastball over 80% of the time, is also more of a groundball pitcher, evidenced by his 1.48 GB/FB.

Downs, however, is MUCH more of a groundball pitcher. In his 61 appearances and 66 innings, just 11.9% of balls in play have been line drives, with 65% being hit on the ground. His GB/FB comes in at 2.88, almost double the rate of Kuo. Downs has surrendered just 47 hits, only two of which are home runs, but his walk and strikeout rates are not as dominant as Kuo’s. With 23 walks and 56 strikeouts, his 1.23 ERA vastly outdoes his 3.02 FIP.

Downs’ WHIP is higher as well, at 1.06, however he has stranded 89.9% of the runners that reach base; even though he allows more, he has stranded a much higher percentage than Kuo. I have heard and read Blue Jays fans hoping he could become a starter, but to do that he will really need to develop another pitch. At this juncture, he literally seems to use only a fastball and curveball, as both have accounted for just about 97% of his deliveries.

Kuo definitely seems to have the more sustainable and talent-driven line, but that should not take anything away from Downs’ effectiveness in relief this year. Both have been outstanding, and neither seem to garner the publicity they are due. Relievers are a fickle bunch, so who knows if they will be anywhere near the answer to this same question next year, but they have been rocks for their respective teams this season.

With the Indians falling out of the race early and trading Sabathia during the summer, there hasn’t been much focus on Cleveland during the second half of the season. Even when they won 10 games in a row, the general response across baseball was to yawn. So, it’s not that surprising that one of the hottest hitters in the American League is tearing the cover off the ball at Jacobs Field and no one is noticing.

What Shin-Soo Choo has done the last month deserves attention, though. He leads all major leaguers in WPA (2.21) over the last 30 days, thanks to a .376/.459/.706 showing over his last 85 at-bats. He’s racked up 17 extra base hits and 10 walks in the time frame, so it’s just a singles driven hot streak. Even his non-leveraged WPA/LI of 1.48 is among the best in the league. Choo’s just killing the ball right now.

Choo missed the first couple months of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and his inability to stay healthy on a consistent basis left him on the fringes of Cleveland’s outfield plans for the future. This performance, though, has thrust him right back into the spotlight, and barring another injury, you have to imagine he’ll go into 2009 with an inside track on a starting job in the Cleveland OF. Just 25 years of age, he’s showing both the patience and power that teased scouts when he was coming through the Mariners system. His strikeout rate remains high and he still can’t hit left-handed pitching, but he does enough other things to compensate for those flaws, even if he’s not quite this good.

His up-to-date Marcel projection has him as a .266/.355/.440 hitter going forward, though Marcel doesn’t know anything about his minor league career, and would likely be a bit more optimistic if it did. Even if he doesn’t take any more steps forward, an .800 OPS from a left-handed hitting corner OF is nothing to sneeze at, and there’s obviously room for a bit more growth over the next couple of years.

Meanwhile, Ben Broussard is basically out of baseball. I’d say that trade worked out fairly well for Cleveland.

The Arizona Fall League will be getting underway shortly and the annual event will feature some of the top upper-level prospects in the game, including a plethora of sleepers and names you need to know. The Minnesota Twins organization has some of the best minor league pitching depth in the game and the club is sending four pitchers to play for the Phoenix Desert Dogs: Rob Delaney, Tim Lahey, Anthony Slama, and Jeff Manship.

Delaney was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of St. John’s University in 2006. The right-hander was rather hittable in college but has found minor league baseball to be pretty easy the past two seasons. In 2007, he began the year in A-ball and posted a 0.77 ERA in 46.2 games with 26 hits allowed (4.82 H/9), to go along with six walks (1.16 BB/9) and 56 strikeouts (10.80 K/9). He then posted a 1.54 ERA in 23.1 High-A innings. In 2008, Delaney started the year back in High-A before finishing in Double-A. His season stats included a 1.23 ERA in 66 innings with 44 hits allowed, along with 11 walks and 72 strikeouts. Right-handers hit just .113 against him at Double-A. Delaney’s best pitches are a low-90s fastball and a plus slider.

Tim Lahey was almost a Chicago Cub after being taken by the organization in the December 2007 Rule 5 draft. Lahey is the rawest of the four Twins pitchers in the AFL, as he was originally a catcher in pro ball before a conversion to the mound after his first pro season in 2004. Pitching at Triple-A in 2008, Lahey posted a 5.43 ERA in 63 innings and allowed 69 hits and 23 walks. He also struck out 53 batters and induced almost 1.5 ground ball outs per fly ball out. Left-handed batters hit .378 against him. Like Delaney, Lahey features a fastball and slider, but his heater has more sink when it’s on.

Anthony Slama was a 39th round draft pick out of the University of San Diego in 2006 and has come a long way in a short time. The right-hander features an 88-92 mph fastball, slider and plus change-up, which makes minor league hitters look foolish. After a debut season that saw him beat up on hitters in the low minors, Slama made High-A ball hitter look bad in 2008. He posted a 1.01 ERA in 71 innings with 43 hits and 24 walks allowed. He also whiffed 110 batters and induced more than 1.5 ground balls for every fly ball. Right-handers hit just .154 against him.

Jeff Manship is the most well-known of the four pitchers on the prospect landscape. He was a star pitcher at the University of Notre Dame and that got him drafted in the 14th round of the 2006 draft. Manship dominated the low minors and did not seem to have any difficulty with hitters until reaching Double-A midway through the 2008 season. In 76.2 innings, he allowed 90 hits and 24 walks with 62 strikeouts. Right-handers hit .311 against him at Double-A. Manship features a diverse repertoire with two fastballs (he works around 88-91 mph), a curveball, slider and change-up. Of the four pitchers headed to the AFL, he is the most likely to be a big league starter, although he projects as more of an innings-eating fourth starter.

One of the statistical terms we mention quite a bit here when evaluating players is regression. The given definition of the word is to go back or return to a previous state. With regards to baseball players, we use the word to describe what is likely to happen to players either over- or underachieving at any given point in a season.

Chipper Jones was hitting .400 halfway through the season. Did we expect him to continue that torrid pace all year? No, his performance was expected to regress as more plate appearances were accrued. The term can be a bit confusing because it so often finds itself used with overachieving players, but, just like Chipper Jones, it goes both ways… to clarify, that’s a switch-hitter joke. Regression can also refer to a player like Robinson Cano, who performed so poorly at the beginning of this year that you knew he just had to get better. His regression resulted in an impovement.

Three pitchers we have discussed multiple times on this site in posts involving this very term are Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and Gavin Floyd. All three are in the midst of career years, but either their ERA-FIP differential or true talent projections told us that they would not be very likely to sustain their performance levels all year. Since all three have made 27 starts, let’s compare the first 18 to the most recent 9 (keep in mind that the FIP is crude here, merely adding 3.20 instead of the exact figure):

Joe Saunders, LAA
18: 120.1 IP, 105 H, 14 HR, 31 BB, 63 K, 3.07 ERA, 4.44 FIP
9:  50.1 IP,   62 H,  5 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 5.19 ERA, 4.79 FIP

Gavin Floyd, CHW
18: 111.2 IP, 87 H, 17 HR, 47 BB, 75 K, 3.63 ERA, 5.10 FIP
9:  55.1 IP,  56 H,  6 HR, 17 BB, 44 K, 3.58 ERA, 3.94 FIP

Ervin Santana, LAA
18: 121.1 IP, 106 H, 12 HR, 32 BB, 112 K, 3.56 ERA, 3.43 FIP
9:  62.1 IP,   57 H,  6 HR, 11 BB,  71 K, 2.70 ERA, 2.89 FIP

Oddly enough, only Saunders has experienced any type of regression over his most recent nine starts. Floyd and Santana have improved. While Floyd’s ERA is essentially the same in the split, his FIP is much better, meaning the performance has been more skill-driven than before. Santana has been pitching lately like the guy on the Mets with the same last name, if not better. With only four or so starts remaining for each of these players, barring some Sabathia-in-April-type performances, not much damage to their overall stat-lines can be done.

Still, one year of data isn’t enough to evaluate a player and the true talent level will still give us a much better estimate. This is why, even though Floyd and Santana are pitching very well, I would have to imagine they do not strike confidence in fans of the South Siders and Halos. The last important thing to remember is that regression does not always result in a bad season. Even though Saunders has performed poorly lately, he is not that bad, and still has a very solid ERA. He isn’t as good as we were “led to believe” early on, but not as bad as his most recent starts. The jury is still out on Floyd and Santana. Hopefully, next year, at this time, we’ll know if they are for real or flashes in the pan.

On November 14, 2006, ESPN printed the following headline:

“DeRosa cashes in on career year, to sign with Cubs.”

The reaction from Cubs fans was about the same – the team had just signed a player that didn’t become a regular until age 31 and had his first real effective season in the hitters paradise of Texas, and they’d signed him to a three year deal to boot. It seemed like something of an overpay for a guy best suited to a super-sub role. His first year in Chicago went pretty well, though, with Mark DeRosa basically being a league average hitter and solid enough defender at second base. The Cubs, however, weren’t impressed enough, and went on an offseason quest to acquire Brian Roberts from the Orioles, offering three and four player packages to try to get the O’s second baseman to the Windy City.

In retrospect, the contract was apparently a stroke of genius and they should thank their lucky stars that they failed to land Roberts, because DeRosa’s been a revelation for the Cubs this year, and should get some down ballot MVP votes.

He’s hitting .292/.384/.490, good for a 2.10 WPA/LI – only Chase Utley has a better mark among NL second baseman. He’s been better offensively than bigger name teammates, such as Derrek Lee or Geovany Soto. Among NL players with a higher WPA/LI mark than DeRosa’s, only Carlos Beltran, Hanley Ramirez, and Utley play up the middle positions. That’s not a bad crowd to run with.

At 33, DeRosa’s having a year so far better than anything else he’s ever done, it’s remarkable. His “career year” of 2006 totaled a whopping -0.23 WPA/LI, and he’d accumulated -1.95 WPA/LI in his career through 2007. He’d been a below average hitter for basically his entire career, and heading into his age 33 season, there was no reason to expect a breakout like this. His preseason Marcel projection had him hitting .279/.354/.426, and it was one of the most optimistic projections for him out there. He’s blowing that line out of the water.

Mocked at the time it was signed, DeRosa’s contract is now one of baseball’s best values for 2008 – $4.75 million for a guy playing at an all-star level at an up the middle position. That signing, and the non-trade for Roberts, really couldn’t have worked out any better.

The first rule when searching for underrated or overrated players is not to look at the players themselves, but to look at their teams. Players that play in big markets and for successful teams get a much larger percentage of media exposure then those that don’t. For that reason, merely good players on good teams are viewed as great while great players on bad teams are viewed as merely good or sometimes even worse.

Tonight, I kick off my attempt to give such unfortunate hitters at least a little bit of their due. Matt Holliday made himself a national star last year during the Rockies’ amazing run. Full crowds chanting M-V-P whenever Holliday strode to the plate made for excellent imagery and the amazing run of wins both into and during the playoffs didn’t hurt either. Thus it comes as a bit of a shock to me that just because the Rockies have regressed in 2008 that the hype around Matt Holliday (the hitter at least) has as well because he might be having a better season this year.

For one thing, he’s created more runs than any hitter in the National League not named Albert Pujols or Lance Berkman. While his slugging and overall OPS are down from last years lofty figures, offense across baseball is down and Holliday has upped his on base percentage enough to maintain the .421 wOBA that he posted in 2007.

Really, the only major difference between last year and this year’s incarnations of Matt Holliday is that this year, Holliday is taking more pitches, whether in the zone or not, which is what’s aiding his large jump in walks. And despite watching more strikes go by and missing pitches that he swings at slightly more often as well, he has cut down his strikeouts by a fraction as well.

It’s not Matt Holliday’s fault that his RBI total has fallen from 137 last year to under 80 this year and that the Rockies win totals have fallen from 89 to under 80, but because they have he’s become under appreciated for the hitter he is. If he truly is on the trading block this winter, with one year left before free agency, expect a large number of suitors.

Roy Oswalt has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in baseball this decade. He never got enough credit, likely due to pitching with Roger Clemens for the last few years, and does not have an intimidating frame out on the mound, but any team would be better with him on their staff. This year, though, many analysts have questioned what is wrong with Astros righty. Baseball is a game of reputations, and it is very possible for a player to have an entire season generalized on great or poor performance either very early or very late into a season.

This seems to be the case for Oswalt, who pitched poorly early on, but has been great recently, arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last thirty days. Don’t believe me? Heck, based on his performance early on and the lack of national publicity directed towards the Astros, I wouldn’t believe that either, but his 1.47 WPA/LI in this span outranks everyone else.

His recent performance has lowered his seasonal ERA and FIP both to 3.91 which, while good, are definitely worse than we have come to expect from Oswalt. His FIPs since 2004 have been 3.17, 3.16, 3.30 and 3.59, leading to this year’s 3.91; it appears his controllable skills are steadily declining. Are they? His K/9 is the highest it has been since 2004, while his BB/9 is almost a half-batter lower than last year. His HR/9, however, which has ranged from 0.59 to 0.73 recently, is currently 1.09, which explains quite a bit.

How has the home run rate increased? The culprit is a HR/FB rate that has gone from 6.7-8.7% over the last four years to 13.8% this year. The league average in this category is generally 11-11.5%, so Oswalt had outdone it by a good margin for a few years. This year, though, his rate has been worse, despite decreasing quite a bit over the past month.

This leads into the title of the post. Yesterday, Pizza Cutter, my colleague at Statistically Speaking, wrote an article about Kelly Johnson in which he discussed how performance is equal to talent and luck; last year, Johnson’s performance was more luck-driven, whereas this year his performance is worse, but comprised of more talent. How does this apply to Oswalt? Well, since his HR/FB was so much lower than the average for those years, his FIP might not be the most accurate indicator of controllable skills. Look what happens when we introduce xFIP, which normalizes the home run factor of FIP:

Year   FIP     xFIP
2004   3.17    3.73
2005   3.16    3.56
2006   3.30    3.75
2007   3.59    4.08
2008   3.91    3.74

According to these numbers, Oswalt’s FIP is expected to be right around where it should have been from 2004-2006. The difference between FIP and xFIP is at its smallest point this year, meaning that Oswalt’s current performance is more talent driven than the result of “luck,” which I use very loosely because there may or may not have been something in his repertoire that limited home runs. His flyball rates have stayed stagnant, however, eliminating the possibility that perhaps he just had very low percentages of flyballs in those years.

We might not know how much talent or luck Oswalt has or benefits from, but he isn’t as bad as some people made him out to be earlier in the season. His xFIP has been in the same general range for the last five years. If there is something wrong with him, it would be that this is the first year in that span in which his FIP has not surpassed what was expected of him.