Archive for 2008

With Brad Ziegler putting up zeros in Oakland, most of the conversations this year about A.L. West rookie relievers have been centered on the bay area, and rightfully so. However, don’t let Jose Arredondo get lost in the shuffle – he’s having a pretty tremendous debut season himself.

Arredondo, a converted outfielder who has been climbing through the minors as a pitcher since 2005, has impressed the Angels enough to become the primary 8th inning setup guy for LAnaheim. He’s done it with a power fastball (93.6 MPH average velocity) that induces ground balls at a significant clip (56% GB%), but also working in a change-up and a split-finger to keep left-handed hitters off balance. In fact, Arredondo’s two off-speed pitches have been so effective, he’s actually be better against LHBs than RHBs.

vs RHB: .219/.313/.288, 83 PA, 9 BB, 12 K
vs LHB: .147/.194/.206, 72 PA, 4 BB, 20 K

His ability to blow left-handed hitters away with a variety of soft stuff, while pounding right-handed hitters with a groundball inducing fastball, makes him a perfect high leverage reliever. He has different weapons for different scenarios, and unlike a lot of converted position players, he’s not just trying to get batters out on arm strength.

Now, he’s not as good as his 0.92 ERA suggests – the 3.17 FIP is closer to his real talent level, but since relievers post a below average BABIP as a group, FIP will underrate him a little bit. But it seems clear that with his ability to throw strikes, miss bats, and control hitters from both sides of the plate, the Angels have a pretty terrific young relief ace waiting in the wings should Francisco Rodriguez choose to leave via free agency this winter.

With the deadline for 2008 amateur draft picks to sign professional contracts expiring on Friday, it is a perfect time to reflect on drafts past. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 picks in the last five drafts (prior to 2008) and see who the best pick was and how they are doing now.

2007 Top 5: David Price, Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos, Matt Wieters

Price (Tampa) made his Triple-A debut for the Tampa Bay organization last night after posting an 11-0 record and sub-2.00 ERA in High-A and Double-A ball in 2008. Wieters (Baltimore) is also looking like a steal with the fifth overall selection for Baltimore. Given how Moskos (Pittsburgh) has imploded, wouldn’t Pittsburgh fans love to have the catcher hitting .353/.453/.602?

2006 Top 5: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow

Hochevar (Kansas City) looks like he is going to be an OK, but not great, big league pitcher. Longoria (Tampa), on the other hand, looks like a future star. The rookie is hitting .278/.352/.533 with 22 homers in 381 at-bats. Reynolds (Colorado) and Lincoln (Pittsburgh) have been slowed by injuries – a disturbing trend among top-drafted college hurlers in recent years.

2005 Top 5: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun

Upton (Arizona) is still showing signs of being a superstar-in-the-making but he is still experiencing growing pains. Of the three third basemen taken in the Top 5, Braun (Milwaukee) was the afterthought but he has been the best Major Leaguer so far. Zimmerman (Washington) has struggled these last two seasons after a great rookie season in 2006. Gordon (Kansas City) is showing signs of improvement after a disappointing rookie season, but he is still not hitting for average or power.

2004 Top 5: Matt Bush, Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers

Bush is by far the worst No. 1 overall pick in years. Verlander (Detroit) wins as the best player among these Top 5 almost by default given that he is the only one who has been consistently healthy. Like many Detroit Tigers, though, his 2008 season has been a disappointment. Niemann (Tampa) and Humber (Minnesota via NY Mets) both have a shot to be average big league pitchers, which is a far cry from their previous potentials.

2003 Top 5: Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, Chris Lubanski

The last three selections on this list are a motley crew. Weeks (Milwaukee) may be the most overrated player in baseball given that he has never hit well but people continue to refer to him as a good hitter on the cusp of breaking out. It’s been four years now. Young (Minnesota via Tampa) is the best player of this quintet but his lack of improvement is disappointing. Yes, he is young but his 2008 season is shaping up to look a lot like his disappointing 2007 campaign. Sleeth is already out of baseball and Stauffer probably isn’t far behind.

The Texas Rangers are known this year for a very, very potent offense. With Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Ian Kinsler all producing top-of-the-league numbers it becomes very easy to overlook other contributing players on the team. Granted, none of these players are in the pitching department, but Marlon Byrd is having a very solid season and, over the last two weeks has arguably been the best player in baseball.

Byrd has had an interesting and underachieving career. He was once considered a super-prospect in the Phillies farm system but never met expectations in red pinstripes and soon found himself sent packing to the Nationals in exchange for Endy Chavez… yes, the Mets legend once played for the Phillies! He then signed with the Rangers as a free agent prior to the 2007 season and remains there today, roaming all three positions in the outfield.

In 82 games this season, Byrd has produced a .298/.381/.477 slash line, good for an OPS+ of 128. He also has an RZR (fielding metric developed at The Hardball Times) of .957. Though he doesn’t technically qualify for inclusion on their leaderboard, the current leader in the outfield is Adam Jones of the Orioles, whose RZR is .948. Take from that what you will.

Though Byrd’s seasonal line is pretty impressive, he has been extremely hot lately. Since July 8, he has hit .383/.463/.636, for a 1.099 OPS, drawing 14 free passes and fanning just seven times in these 29 games. Since the start of August, however, Byrd has been even better. Using the ‘Last 14 Days’ filter here at Fangraphs, Byrd is hitting .480/.559/.740, a 1.299 OPS. His WPA/LI is 0.84 in this span, which ranks atop the American League. Additionally, his BRAA (12.65) and REW (1.22) rank above all other AL players.

Now, The Book showed us that hot streaks, even the most flammable of the bunch, have next to no predictive value with regards to what will happen from that point on. So, it isn’t to say that because Byrd has produced these numbers over the last two weeks that he will continue to stay hot, or has any type of advantage over someone not as hot lately. Still, he has had a good season thus far and I think it’s safe to say very few people have noticed.

Is he living up to the potential that made its way into his corner as a minor leaguer? No, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a quality major league player

Last night, we saw one of the strangest rallies of the year. The suddenly surging Houston Astros… well, just look at it for yourself.

Top 6, SF @ Houston, Giants lead 1-0, Barry Zito pitching.

Ty Wigginton reaches on an infield single
Mark Loretta walked
Miguel Tejada singled to center
Lance Berkman walked
Geoff Blum hit a sacrifice fly
Hunter Pence intentionally walked
Reggie Abercrombie hit a sacrifice fly
Humberto Quintero hit by pitch
Randy Wolf walked
Ty Wigginton hit by pitch
Mark Loretta hit by pitch
Miguel Tejada flew out.

That’s a six run inning based on an infield single, an actual single, four walks, and three hit by pitches. 12 men came to the plate, and thanks to the classification between PA and AB, the Astros went 2 for 3 on the inning. You might not ever see a worse pitching sequence than hitting Quintero, walking Wolf, hitting Wigginton, and hitting Loretta in succession.

For the Astros, it’s another odd win in a winning streak that only the Astros front office saw coming. They were openly mocked for making trades to add veterans when they have next to no chance of making the playoffs, but the Astros have responded and are playing their best baseball of the season. It won’t matter, though, because their seven game winning streak has simply served to keep them even with the Brewers, who have won eight in a row.

Of course, if they can score six runs in an inning where they get just two singles, maybe anything is possible.

This afternoon, Eric presented the case for Cliff Lee, asking the somewhat rhetorical question of whether he’s already wrapped up the Cy Young award. Well, Roy Halladay called, and he told me to tell Eric “not so fast, buddy”.

First, the comparison of traditional stats.

Wins: Lee (16) over Halladay (13)
ERA: Lee (2.45) over Halladay (2.72)
Innings: Halladay (182) over Lee (161 2/3)
Strkeouts: Halladay (155) over Lee (128)
Complete Games: Halladay (7) over Lee (2)

If you don’t like to go beyond the 1950s numbers to evaluate pitchers, then you have to decide whether you like quality (Lee) or quantity (Halladay). Lee’s surface numbers are a bit better, but Halladay’s pitched more. I’d imagine most voters who base their decisions on Wins and ERA will go with Lee, but for those of us who think pitchers should be evaluated by metrics a little more current, let’s take a look at how they’ve performed in things they can control.

BB/9: Lee (1.22) over Halladay (1.53)
K/9: Halladay (7.66) over Lee (7.13)
HR/9: Lee (0.39) over Hallday (0.64)
WPA/LI: Halladay (3.97) over Lee (3.90)

Lee has a lead in the two command factors of FIP, walks and home runs, by slight but significant margins. Halladay has a similar lead in dominance, getting more strikeouts and ground balls. Hallday’s FIP of 2.99 is half a run higher than Lee’s 2.48, almost all of which is tied to Lee’s home run prevention. On a per inning basis, Lee’s got the advantage, no doubt.

However, as WPA/LI shows, the extra 20 innings that Halladay has thrown matter. If Lee had thrown the same 182 innings that Halladay has completed, his advantage based on FIP would be FIP (or ERA, as both have ERAs close to their actual performance) would be about 8 or 9 runs. Halladay, however, needs to get credit for pitching more often, so we need to adjust the difference in innings to account for the other pitchers Cleveland has had to use in lieu of Lee going deeper into the game.

Lee has allowed 46 runs in his 162 2/3 IP, but the Indians bullpen has been terrible this year, allowing 5.38 runs per nine innings as a group. If we multiply that RA times the 20 inning difference between Lee and Halladay, we get an additional 12 runs given up. That would push Lee + bullpen’s total to 58 runs allowed in 182 innings, which is just six runs better than Halladay’s runs allowed total.

The extra innings Halladay has pitched close the gap, but not entirely – Lee still has the lead right now, even after accounting for quantity. However, with a month and a half to go in the season, there’s still certainly time for Halladay to make up the difference and then some.

Lee’s season has been great, but Doc Halladay isn’t that far behind. Let’s not give him the Cy Young just yet.

Is it just me or has there been a recent dearth of articles focused on Cliff Lee lately? It seems like all the major sources used up their Cliff Quota earlier in the year when he looked more like a fluke than now when he seems to be much more for real. Regardless, it’s time to check back in with our AL Cy Young Award-favorite and see how his season looks and what it might look like when September ends… and wake me up when that happens… ten points to whomever catches that reference.

In 23 starts, Lee has gone 161.2 innings, giving up 152 hits—just 7 of which are home runs—and 22 walks while fanning 128 batters. His HR/9 of 0.39 leads all of baseball, as do his 1.22 BB/9 and 5.82 K/BB. He has a 2.45 ERA which happens to be lower than any other starter and his FIP, which could show whether or not he has been lucky or unlucky, comes in a mere three-hundredths of a point higher at 2.48… which also happens to be the best in the bigs.

Another indicator of luck is BABIP, where we would expect someone not “for real” to have a very, very low mark; Lee’s is right around the average .300 at .307. His strand rate is 78.1% which, while very impressive, is not ridiculously unsustainable, especially for someone pitching on as elite of a level as Lee. All of these numbers have translated into a league best 4.97 WPA, a league best 3.90 WPA/LI, and a league best 4.07 REW.*

*There have been a lot of questions regarding REW. To clarify, it is Wins based on shifts in Run Expectancy, not Win Expectancy. It is essentially BRAA (Batting Runs Above Average) quantified in terms of Wins.

Seems like I’ve been writing the words ‘league’ and ‘best’ an awful lot so far. I’d stop, but the Indians lefty happens to lead baseball in many important categories. A really interesting note is his shift in GB/FB ratio. Prior to this year his ratio had never topped 0.84, whereas right now he has a 1.29, meaning he has been inducing many more groundballs. Not only does it seem that Lee’s numbers are the results of skills rather than luck, he seems to have become a different type of pitcher.

His in-season projection calls for 61 IP, 58 H, 6 HR, 15 BB, and 42 K over his remaining nine starts which would result in the following seasonal line: 32 GS, 222 IP, 210 H, 13 HR, 37 BB, 170 K, 1.11 WHIP, 2.78 ERA, 2.79 FIP.

Tom Tango discussed a really interesting way of turning the +WPA and -WPA found here into a W-L metric, so what happens when we plug Lee into that equation? His 16-2 becomes a 13-3, so his W-L has done a pretty good job of letting the public know how good he has been. With that in mind, has this guy already wrapped up a Cy Campaign? Is there any way he doesn’t win the award? I mean, his remaining nine starts are calling for a bit of a regression and even if he regresses more than that his numbers should still end up better than any other AL starter. If not, who would step in and take it away?

Ryan Strieby’s 2008 performance has taken a lot of people by surprise.

The Detroit Tiger’s fourth round selection in 2006 had an off-season in his first full year in 2007 in A-ball with a line of .253/.347/.422 with 16 homers in 443 at-bats. There were signs that improvements could be coming with 63 walks and just 78 strikeouts. He also had a .275 BABIP.

No one, though, would have predicted a .140 jump in slugging percentage with a promotion to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2008. Strieby has been immensely powerful in the last month and a half (157 at-bats) with 19 homers. Overall, he currently has 29 in 421 at-bats, along with a line of .278/.352/.563. His power has come at a cost, as he has now struck out 101 times (Up seven percent from 2007) and walked just 46 times (Down about three percent).

The Detroit Tigers have one of the worst systems in baseball and Strieby’s season has put him near the top of the organization’s prospect list despite the inconsistencies throughout his career. The right-handed slugging first baseman is not unlike fellow Tigers’ prospect and left-handed hitter Jeff Larish, who had a line of .267/.390/.515 with 28 homers in 454 at-bats one level higher at Double-A in 2007.

If Strieby’s power surge is for real, and he can continue to hit .260-.280, he could potentially pair with Larish in the Majors in late 2009.

The Red Sox had a 98.7% Win Expectancy at the end of the first inning.

There were 15 extra base hits in the game. Six other games last night had 15 hits of any kind by both teams combined.

11 pitchers were used. Only two did not allow at least one run.

Growing up as a young Phillies fan, prior to my introduction to sabermetrics or advanced analysis, there were a few things I knew, essentially as facts: the Braves would win the division every year, Scott Rolen was an absolutely incredible fielder, and when the Expos had Javier Vazquez on the mound they were going to be tough to beat. I didn’t immerse myself in the numbers but perhaps the scout in me just knew that his ridiculous movement, repertoire and savvy out there on the mound was bound to baffle hitters.

As I became more sabermetrically inclined it hit me as a shock that his numbers were so, well, what they were. They weren’t bad. They weren’t below average. They weren’t average either. His numbers were above average but nowhere near what they should have been based on the way he looked on the mound and on the potential he possessed. Vazquez, as I would grow to understand, is the classic example of a pitcher whose stuff, savvy, and potential are never fully realized, but who will never experience a drought of suitors based on the belief that he can still figure things out.

Here are his ERA and FIP marks since 2000:

2000: 4.05 ERA/3.67 FIP
2001: 3.42 ERA/3.21 FIP
2002: 3.91 ERA/3.68 FIP
2003: 3.24 ERA/3.31 FIP
2004: 4.91 ERA/4.78 FIP
2005: 4.42 ERA/4.06 FIP
2006: 4.84 ERA/3.86 FIP
2007: 3.74 ERA/3.80 FIP
2008: 4.74 ERA/4.02 FIP

Notice anything? Perhaps that his FIP is just about always better than his ERA? Based on his controllable skills, Vazquez is a very, very good pitcher, but for whatever reason this does not always come to fruition in his ERA. Granted, ERA is not the best metric to gauge pitcher performance, but when a guy consistently posts lower FIPs you have to wonder what exactly is going on.

Each year he posts very good K/BB ratios and solid walk and strikeout per nine inning rates. Additionally, from 2001-07, his WHIP ranged from 1.08-1.29, so it isn’t as if he has allowed a plethora of baserunners. His strand rate in that span is around 72%, which is league average, meaning he hasn’t been drastically unlucky in that regard. All told, he has great controllable skills, doesn’t allow many baserunners, and strands around the average rate, yet something is preventing him from being an annual Cy Young Award contender.

He throws a two-seam fastball which is more closely associated with a sinker than a hard heater. Because of this we wouldn’t be wrong to expect good groundball numbers from Javy. Since 2005, however, his GB/FB has been under 1.0, which tells us that he has been allowing more flyballs than grounders. His home runs allowed could be a big factor in preventing him from being more successful: From 2001-2007, of all starters with at least 180 starts in that seven year span, Vazquez has the 6th highest HR/9.

Perhaps something in his location or use of pitches is catalyzing these home runs, or perhaps not. All I know is that he has been a very frustrating pitcher because he just looks like he should be so much better… and he isn’t. Not that he’s bad, by any means, but he should be a perennial all-star. Any thoughts? Or can anyone think of an equally frustrating pitcher?

Let’s play one of baseball writer’s favorite games – anonymous player comparison!

Player A, 2007: .386 OBP, .562 SLG, 3.42 WPA/LI
Player B, 2007: .386 OBP, .554 SLG, 3.51 WPA/LI

Player A, 2008: .384 OBP, .526 SLG, 2.32 WPA/LI
Player B, 2008: .373 OBP, .528 SLG, 2.31 WPA/LI

That’s two years where both players have been almost identical in terms of offensive value. They couldn’t be viewed any more differently by most of baseball, however.

Player A is Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins all-star shortstop, sometimes mentioned MVP candidate, and widely considered one of the most valuable players in the game. Player B is Adam Dunn, the guy who was traded for a marginal minor league starter and two PTBNL’s on a waiver-wire deal yesterday.

Now, there’s obviously a big difference between them – Ramirez plays shortstop, and Dunn plays outfield. But neither of them are particularly adept defenders relative to their peers, so most of the actual difference between their value comes from the position adjustment required to make up for the difference in expected offensive from an SS and an LF.

The average NL SS is hitting .271/.328/.396, while the average LF is hitting .273/.351/.460. That’s a significant difference, and when plugged into a win value calculator, the difference comes out to about one win over the course of the season. Even if we wanted to give Ramirez a bit of extra value for being a better shortstop than Dunn is an outfielder (which is arguable, but possible), the most we’ll be able to get the difference up to is 1.5 wins over a full season.

There’s a difference, no doubt, but can you imagine the media reaction if the Diamondbacks had traded for Hanley Ramirez yesterday? It’s not exactly a proportional response to the actual difference between the two. More than anything else, the way Dunn and Ramirez are perceived tells us just how strongly batting average still has a hold on the game as a whole.