Archive for 2008

David Price has been very, very good this season.

It might have seemed like a foregone conclusion that the 2007 first overall pick would dominate in professional baseball but quite a few recent No. 1 overall picks have not been that great, including Matt Bush, Brian Bullington and even Luke Hochevar.

Price did not pitch after being selected in 2007 due to ongoing negotiations and he was slowed early on in 2008 by injury woes. The 6’6” southpaw began his season in the High-A Florida State League and toyed with the less-advanced hitters, allowing 28 hits in 34 innings with seven walks and 37 strikeouts.

Price was then promoted to Double-A where he has not missed a beat by allowing 42 hits in 57 innings with 16 walks and 55 strikeouts. With runners in scoring position, Double-A hitters are “hitting” just .118 suggesting he could have some immediate success in a big league bullpen if the Rays wanted to limit his innings this season. Overall, he is 11-0 in his pro career with a 1.87 ERA.

As good as he was in college, it is still a little surprising that Price has been this successful this quickly. He is poised to be a secret weapon as the Rays approach the organization’s first playoff series since its inception. Price could have a Francisco Rodriguez-type of impact this fall.

Upon looking back at the best pitchers of the 1990s, whose careers continued into the Y2K era, a general concensus seems to exist involving which ones sit atop the totem pole. The order of these pitchers may differ from list to list but, based on several articles written by some smart and reliable writers, that list tends to include: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Kevin Brown, and Mike Mussina.

Some feel all nine of these pitchers are Hall of Fame-worthy. Others draw the line after Smoltz. Some more say all but Brown are deserving. Regardless, it does seem that these nine pitchers had the most impact on the game from a starting pitching standpoint, especially in the statistical department. With that in mind, I went to each of their profile pages and isolated, using WPA/LI, their best seasons. Below they are ranked by these context-neutral wins:

Pedro Martinez (00): 8.09 WPA/LI, 1.74 ERA/2.16 FIP, 0.74 WHIP, 32 BB/284 K
Greg Maddux (95): 6.86 WPA/LI, 1.63 ERA/2.25 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 23 BB/181 K
Roger Clemens (97): 6.23 WPA/LI, 2.05 ERA/2.25 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 68 BB/292 K
Randy Johnson (95): 6.15 WPA/LI, 2.48 ERA/2.08 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 65 BB/294 K
Curt Schilling (02): 6.07 WPA/LI, 3.23 ERA/2.40 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 33 BB/316 K
John Smoltz (96): 5.23 WPA/LI, 2.94 ERA/2.64 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 55 BB/276 K
Kevin Brown (98): 5.08 WPA/LI, 2.38 ERA/2.23 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 49 BB/257 K
Mike Mussina (01): 4.28 WPA/LI, 3.15 ERA/2.91 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 42 BB/214 K
Tom Glavine (91): 4.13 WPA/LI, 2.55 ERA/3.05 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 69 BB/192 K

First, some commonalities. Nobody here had a WHIP 1.10+ in their best season; the highest ERA, 3.23, belongs to Schilling, who actually had the biggest E-F discrepancy at -0.83. Nobody had an FIP higher than 3 except Glavine, who also had the highest WHIP, most walks, and second lowest amount of strikeouts. Okay, so it seems that Glavine had the worst best-year of this group and Pedro’s 2000 (as well as his 1999 campaign) just might be the best pitched season in the history of the sport, but I’m curious to know your thoughts on the rankings of these best seasons and how you would rank their careers overall.

Would you stick with the WPA/LI in ranking their top seasons? Does this order represent the order for their overall careers?

While I have a feeling the top four will remain the same it should be very interesting to see some takes on how the bottom five are ranked with some reasoning behind it. With enough of a vote we’ll be able to see if any real concensus exists with regards to their order of effectiveness.

We’ve discussed here as well as at Statistically Speaking with regards to Pedro Martinez’s pitching in 1999-2000 as perhaps the best we have ever seen, but another peak for a different pitcher in a similar span should not be overlooked. Though the numbers compiled in this peak may not be as impressive in the grand scheme of things they point to a domination of hitters. I’m speaking of Randy Johnson and his performance from 1999-2002.

For starters, here are some of his peripheral numbers in each of these seasons:

1999: 35 GS, 271.2 IP, 207 H, 75 ER, 70 BB, 364 K, 1.02 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, 2.75 FIP
2000: 35 GS, 248.2 IP, 202 H, 73 ER, 76 BB, 347 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.64 ERA, 2.53 FIP
2001: 34 GS, 249.2 IP, 181 H, 69 ER, 71 BB, 372 K, 1.01 WHIP, 2.49 ERA, 2.12 FIP
2002: 35 GS, 260.0 IP, 197 H, 67 ER, 71 BB, 334 K, 1.03 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 2.66 FIP

Let those babies sink in. Those are four absolutely ridiculous seasons. His 2000 campaign “looks” worse than the other three seasons yet his FIP of 2.53 comes in as the second lowest. In 1999 he led the NL in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts. In fact, his 364 K outranked everyone by a very wide margin; second place was Kevin Brown and his measly-in-comparison 221 punchouts. He also finished second in WHIP by two-hundredths of a point.

The following season he again ranked in the top three in just about every category, finishing first in CG and K (347 to Chan Ho Park’s 217); he also finished 2nd in ERA and 3rd in IP and WHIP. In 2001, he led the league in ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP while finishing 2nd in IP to teammate Curt Schilling. And in 2002, he led in ERA, CG, IP, and Strikeouts while finishing 3rd in WHIP. Those are just the peripheral numbers.

In terms of Win Probability, here are his WPA/LI and REW numbers, as well as their ranks in each of these seasons:

1999: 5.04 WPA/LI (1st), 5.93 REW (1st)
2000: 4.41 WPA/LI (2nd), 4.82 REW (1st)
2001: 5.84 WPA/LI (1st), 6.25 REW (1st)
2002: 4.43 WPA/LI (2nd), 5.91 REW (1st)

We all know RJ as a strikeout machine, and his K/9 counts in these four seasons did not disappoint. 12.06 in ’99, 12.56 in ’00, 13.41 in ’01, and 11.56 in ’02. He of course led the league in each of these seasons. Equally impressive are his K/BB ratios; it isn’t as if he struck out a ton of batters but walked many as well. No, Johnson’s lowest K/BB in this span was 4.57 in 2000. In 1999 he clocked in at 5.20; a 5.24 in 2001, and a 4.70 in 2002. These ratios placed him either second or third in each season.

All told, Johnson led the league or finished no lower than third in all of these categories for four straight seasons. He is without a doubt a Hall of Fame pitcher and the kind of guy whose starts used to be considered “events.” While it usually takes a few years after a player retires to detach ourselves from the most recent performance—for instance, it’s tough to really remember every facet of Johnson’s peak when we see his most recent seasons on the Yankees and again DBacks—let’s not forget that the man who induced a Lou Collins flyout in the film Little Big League had arguably the second best peak in baseball history.

It seems like every year, a young flamethrowing rookie comes up from the minors and makes a big impact on a playoff team’s bullpen. Joba Chamberlain, Pat Neshek, Francisco Rodriguez… it’s becoming an annual tradition. This year, Jeff Samardzija is being anointed as that guy after coming up and blowing hitters away with his 95 MPH fastball.

There’s one huge difference between Samardzija and the guys who were fall sensations in years past – the ability to throw strikes. His walk rate is okay (3.09 BB/9) for a power reliever, but it’s masking the fact that he’s only thrown 58% of his pitches for strikes. That matches Daniel Cabrera’s career total, for comparison’s sake. After a sparkling debut in his first two appearances, he’s consistently been unable to put the ball over the plate since, putting up a 53% strike percentage in his last six appearances.

That’s just not going to work. You can’t miss the plate half the time and be successful in the major leagues. Hitters will just lay off the pitches that aren’t over the plate until you come over with something they can crush, or wait for you to give them first base. The old cliche about the best pitch in baseball being strike one is true – stuff is important, but command is vital. Right now, Samardzija’s command is walking the line of not being good enough for the major leagues. His stuff gives him a margin of error, but he’s pretty close to the end of that margin.

His big leap forward has been a great story for the Cubs organization, but as they head towards October, they have to be realistic about what he’s going to give them down the stretch. The power arm is always enticing, but radar velocities don’t matter when the ump yells “ball four”. The Cubs need to be helping him get the ball over the plate more often, and until he does, he shouldn’t be counted on as the savior of that bullpen.

Every now and again when I get a few free moments to myself it has become customary to check sites like Baseball Think Factory and see what is going on across the blogosphere. In the last month or two it has dawned on me that I end up reading about one article every other day discussing Mike Mussina and his chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Writers present stats, discuss why they are good enough, play devil’s advocate to show why he might not get in, and then make some comparison to a pitcher either in/not in to prove their point.

He is currently in the midst of a very good season but, unless I’m mistaken, he mentioned in John Feinstein’s book (along with Tom Glavine) that this would be his final season. Perhaps his great pitching has changed his mind but I had thought this year would be his last.

Regardless, when I look at the Hall of Fame, one question surfaces: Can the story of baseball during the era in which this guy played be truly, accurately told, if we remove him? If the answer is yes, he doesn’t really belong in Cooperstown. That qualifying question discusses the impact a player had on the game on a very simple level; if someone was that important to the game then you would need to include him in some type of historical document or pamphlet when explaining the era to future generations. To me, that is what the Hall of Fame is and should be.

For Mussina, I’m not so sure the answer to that question is positive. And, even if it is, doesn’t the hesitance pointed in his direction say more than the numerous articles written about him?

Anyways, supposing he does find himself enshrined, on whom do you think he made the most impact? Orioles or Yankees? Here are his overall numbers and average seasons with each team. Be sure to note that his numbers with the Yankees are including his overall 2008 numbers using the in-season Marcel projection system.

Orioles: 10 yrs, 288 GS, 2009.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 131 ERA+, 3.29 K/BB, .249/.293/.394
Yankees: 8 yrs, 247 GS, 1547.0 IP, 3.89 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.99 K/BB, .261/.301/.406

Orioles: 29 GS, 6.98 IP/GS, 3.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 47 BB, 154 K
Yankees: 31 GS, 6.26 IP/GS, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40 BB, 158 K

The numbers on the Orioles tend to look a little bit better but on whom did he have the bigger impact? As in, if he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, would it make more sense to see him wearing an Orioles or Yankees cap? When answering, try to think along the lines of the future and the question posed towards the beginning. For us, it’s very hard to break free from the current, and since we have seen him in pinstripes this entire decade they might be an easy choice… but if someone, fifty years from now, who had little knowledge of this era, were to learn about it and Mike Mussina came up, which team would it make more sense for him to represent?

In looking at Brian McCann yesterday I found some interesting parallels between his numbers and those of Pirates backstop Ryan Doumit. Considering the definite lack of national attention thrust upon the Pirates it is pretty safe to say most of non-fantasy baseball playing fans have next to no idea who he is or what he has done this year. With that in mind, here are some Doumit facts:

• In 75 games he is hitting .336/.377/.549
• That .926 OPS ranks 11th best in the NL amongst those with 300+ PAs
• His SLG ranks 12th best with those same parameters
• He has an AB/HR rate of 23.8, which is in the same vicinity as David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto
• His 2.18 REW is ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Chase Utley
• His 1.70 WPA/LI ranks ahead of Dan Uggla, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Derrek Lee
• His 13.3% strikeout rate falls in the lowest twenty-five percent
• His BABIP is a very high .356
• That BABIP isn’t too crazy considering his 23.2% LD rate (.232+.120 = .352!)
• His in-season Marcel estimates a .259/.336/.432 clip with six home runs to finish the year
• That would end his season at .307/.361/.505, good for 18 HR and an .866 OPS

In other words, Doumit has put together a very solid line of stats that are due for a regression but will still look good at season’s end. Though most of the general public has no idea who he is, he has actually been better to date in numerous areas than several all-stars and MVP candidates.

High school players Mike Moustakas and Josh Vitters, a pair of future Major League third basemen, were selected second and third overall in the 2007 amateur draft by the Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs, respectively. Both players struggled out of the gate when they began their pro careers but have turned things around as of late. Their current statistics look like this:

Moustakas  .265/.329/.470  400  20  34-69 (Full season ball)
Vitters    .325/.359/.515  169   9   9-34 (Short season ball)

Moustakas spent 11 games in Rookie Ball in 2007 and hit .293/.383/.439 with four doubles. He then struggled at the beginning of 2008 when he was assigned to full-season ball. Moustakas batted .190/.253/.226 in April with just one extra base hit (a homer). His best month came in July when he batted .303/.376/.487 with five doubles and three homers in 76 at-bats. He also walked nine times and struck out in just 13 at-bats. His 20 homers come in the Midwest League, which is notorious for negatively affecting home run power. Moustakas leads the league in homers with one more than Clinton’s Jonathan Greene. The 19-year-old left-handed batter has been almost as good against southpaws as right-handers: .250/.317/.478 versus .269/.332/.468. Defensively he has split time between shortstop and third base and projects better at the hot corner.

Like Moustakas, Vitters began the 2008 season in the full-season Midwest League but he started slowly and his strength was sapped by injuries. When he finally got healthy, the Cubs demoted Vitters, 18, to Short Season Boise. Vitters is now hitting .335/.371/.523 with four homers in 155 at-bats. The step back is disappointing but he’s still very young and will get another shot at the Midwest League next season. The right-handed batter has had a lot of fun against left-handed pitching this year with a line of .417/.432/.639, compared to .311/.354/.487 against right-handers. Vitters appears to put a little too much pressure on himself with runners in scoring position as he is hitting just .222 in those situations.

It’s going to take some time but Vitters remains the Cubs’ third baseman of the future. The same can be said for Moustakas, who is more advanced than Vitters both offensively and defensively. However, he faces a roadblock by the name of Alex Gordon. Watching the two careers unfold is going to be a lot of fun. Who do you think will be the better player long term?

Suppose I titled this post something else and you had no idea in what direction it was headed: Would you have any idea that Brian McCann of the Braves, one of Dave’s favorite players, is the top offensive catcher in baseball this year? I’m sure some of you might have pegged him to be one of the best, but not the king of the castle, so to speak. No, Russell Martin would have gotten some votes, Joe Mauer, too; heck, maybe some would even forget Victor Martinez is injured and homerless in 54 games and give him some major loving. Regardless, the fact remains that McCann is having a very good offensive season, better than the large majority of non-catchers, let alone catchers themselves.

When discussing catchers, we primarily stick to offense because, well, there is no real way to quantify defensively what a catcher does behind the plate. Offense can definitely be quantified, however, and nowadays a good hitting catcher is generally a league average hitter or slightly better. McCann is way above the league average this year.

In 101 games he has a .306/.386/.558 slash line, good for a .945 OPS. The OBP ranks 10th in the NL (ironically tied with Russell Martin); the SLG comes in 9th; and the OPS ranks 8th. McCann’s SLG and OPS ranks first amongst all catchers, NL or AL; Mauer tops him in OBP, but he comes in second place. On top of that, his 2.10 WPA/LI ranks first in the NL amongst catchers (Joe Mauer has a slight overall lead), and his 2.49 REW leads all catchers regardless of league. It seems Mauer would be deserving of some recognition this year but he just does not bring the dimension of power to the plate that McCann offers.

Ryan Doumit has had a tremendous season as well, but his is built on a .359 BABIP whereas Brian’s is a very solid and much more regression-proof .306. He has struck out just 46 times this year, putting him in the top twenty for lowest strikeout percentage. He doesn’t draw a plethora of free passes, but enough so that his BB/K is a tick under 1.0.

McCann might not be a household name outside of NL East cities, but he should be. These numbers, and his numbers in the seasons prior definitely back up my sentiments.

The Marlins have made a lot of surprise playoff runs over the years, and it seems like all of them involve a rookie pitcher coming up from the minors and providing a great performance. Josh Beckett started the trend, Anibal Sanchez continued it, and now Christopher Volstad is trying to be the new wunderkind.

Since being recalled on July 6th from Double-A Carolina, Volstad has made five starts and showed why his sinker was considered one of the best in the game. His GB-FB rates during those five starts are 15-6, 13-2, 9-5, 10-5, and 9-5. His GB% stands at 56.3%, an outstanding total, and a big part of why he’s been successful so far.

His 2.67 ERA is supported by a 3.36 FIP, so even though his batting average on balls in play is a bit low (and thus driving down the ERA), he’s still pitching well. But the key for Volstad has been the home run prevention – he’s allowed just one long ball in the majors after not giving up a single round tripper in Double-A. When you keep the ball in the park, teams will have a tough time piling up runs, and Volstad has been as good as anyone at limiting the damage.

His 3.7% HR/FB rate isn’t sustainable, of course. That will go up, and Volstad isn’t as good as his results would indicate so far. But that just means that he’s not the best pitcher in baseball, which we already knew – he’s a very good prospect with a dynamite sinker and a solid curve that gives him two good major league pitches. His command isn’t great, but he misses down in the zone, so the problems will result from walks, not long balls.

The Marlins are going to have to have a great final two months to make another playoff run, and if they pull it off, it’s likely that Volstad will be a big part of that.

After receiving a late May call to the bigs last year, Brewers 3B Ryan Braun went on an absolute tear, taking home Rookie of the Year hardware in the process. 112 games into his second season it does not appear that he has fallen victim to the ever heralded “sophomore slump.” In fact, take a look at his two seasons, side by side (or on top of one another) as he has had virtually the same amount of opportunities:

2007: 113 GP, 146-451, 26 2B, 6 3B, 34 HR, 29 BB, 112 K, .324/.370/.634
2008: 112 GP, 138-460, 31 2B, 6 3B, 30 HR, 26 BB, 99 K, .300/.339/.589

With roughly two months remaining he should easily surpass his counting stats from the tremendous rookie campaign. Interestingly enough, due to the season-long success of the Cubs, the early struggles of the Brewers, and outside factors such as acquiring CC Sabathia, there are plenty of knowledgable baseball fans out there unaware that Braun is having this good of a season. His 30 home runs ranks third in baseball behind just Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn, and his WPA/LI of 2.74 checks in ninth in the senior circuit.

He didn’t walk much last year and is doing so even less this year—seventh lowest BB-rate at 5.3%—but at least his frequency of strikeouts has decreased a bit. Due to his lack of free passes, his OBP is not very high relative to his batting average; doubly so it means his slugging percentage would need to be very high to result in the ninth best OPS in the national league. Sure enough, his slugging percentage ranks sixth best and his isolated power of .289 ranks fifth best.

Using the in-season Marcel, he is projected to finish the season hitting .310/.368/.572, with 11 doubles and 12 home runs. The reliability or accuracy of his projection is not going to be as high as others, however, given that this is his second year. Regardless, this would put him at .303/.358/.584 in his sophomore season. Stack up his first two years:

2007: 113 GP, .324/.370/.634, 1.004 OPS, 26 2B, 34 HR
2008: 156 GP, .303/.348/.584, .932 OPS, 42 2B, 42 HR

Not too shabby for his first two years in the major leagues. He doesn’t walk much and is not a tremendous fielder, but the Hebrew Hammer can flat out rake.