Archive for 2008

The Rays bolstered their bullpen today by acquiring Chad Bradford from Baltimore for a player to be named later. If it seems like Bradford has been around forever, that’s because it’s true. He’s been doing this sidearm shtick in the majors for 10 years now, compiling a 3.31 ERA in 446 career innings. Not bad for a guy whose fastball topped out at 85 in his prime and averages 80.0 MPH now.

Bradford is a lot of fun, simply because he’s so unique. His sidearm motion allows him to keep everything low in the zone, and because of the movement, it’s almost impossible to hit the ball in the air against him. He’s faced 145 batters this year and only 20 of them have managed to hit fly balls. Obviously, if you can’t get the ball in the air, you can’t hit home runs, so Bradford is among the league’s best at limiting the long ball.

He also pounds the strike zone (1.56 BB/9 in ’08, 2.35 BB/9 career), and his combination of no walks and no home runs makes him an effective pitcher despite a hilarious 2.90 K/9 rate. There was a discussion in the Jesse Litsch thread the other day about minimum required K/9 rates for success, and while there were disagreements over what the threshold is, no one was putting it at three strikeouts per game.

Bradford is succeeding in a way that baseball hasn’t seen since Dan Quisenberry in 1981. Oddities like Bradford and The Quiz are part of what makes baseball so much fun, and I’m glad to see the 21st century side-armer get a shot to make an imapct in another playoff race.

As a ‘prospect watcher’ there is nothing more frustrating than standing by while a young player gets left to rot in the Minor Leagues when it’s clear that the player is ready for that next step.

Brandon Wood is a power-hitting infielder with the Los Angeles Angels and he has been considered one of the organization’s top prospects since he was drafted in the first round of the 2003 draft after being selected out of an Arizona high school. Originally a shortstop, Wood has also seen time at the hot corner.

It’s hard to believe Wood is only 23. It seems like he has been knocking on the big league door forever. After one half-season of Rookie Ball, Wood played in full-season ball for the first time at the age of 19 and held his own with a line of .251/.322/.404 in 478 at-bats.

Promoted to High-A ball the next season, Wood erupted for 51 doubles and 43 homers in 536 at-bats with a line of .321/.383/.672. The hype that followed was not fair; Wood was playing in Rancho Cucamonga, which is an excellent park for hitters. Yes, he is a good hitter, but he is not that good. Wood then hit 20-plus homers the next two seasons and was considered a disappointment even though he was almost ready for a cup of coffee in the Majors at the age of 21.

Now in his second full season of Triple-A, Wood is currently hitting .291/.355/.606 with 27 homers in 327 at-bats. That said, there are negatives to his game. Wood strikes out a lot (although the K% is on the decline from 32.9 to 27.5 to 26) and his defence is just OK. He has struggled in big league call-ups in both 2007 and 2008 for a combined line of .134/.160/.216 in 97 at-bats, but he also needs consistent playing time.

What is perhaps most perplexing is that the names of the players keeping Wood in the minors include Maicer Izturis, Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar and Robb Quinlan. All those players are Major Leaguers – and deservedly so – but none of them offer the kind of power and offensive upside that Wood does. Given that the Angels are ninth out of 14 American League teams in terms of homers and 10th in slugging percentage, they could use the added muscle.

There’s one pending free agent who, I will happily admit, I have no idea what kind of contract he is going to get this winter. I feel like no matter what I guess, I have a great chance of being amazingly wrong, because there are so many positives and so many negatives in the equation.

That player, of course, is Milton Bradley.

On the plus side, he’s been the best hitter in the American League this year. Combined with his excellent 2007 performance, he’s now strung together 515 at-bats of MVP caliber offense. He’s a switch-hitter, he gets on base, he hits for power, and he can still run a little bit. He’s just 30 years old and is showing no signs of physical decline. And, while he’s DH’d most of this year, he can still play a decent corner outfield if need be.

However, this is still the same guy who wore out his welcome in Montreal, Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Oakland. This is a guy who has gotten more than 400 at-bats in a season once in his entire career. This is a guy who has fought with coaches, teammates, and fans. He’s a guy with with a 1.282 OPS in Texas and an .852 OPS on the road.

His Marcel true talent level pegs him as a .291/.388/.502 hitter, which makes him the best hitter available this winter. That should earn him a nice paycheck, but if he decides he wants to stay at DH, that rules out half the teams in baseball as suitors. If a team pursues him as an outfielder, can they count on him to play more than half a season?

And, of course, there’s the personality stuff. He’s done well in Texas, but when four franchises have already decided that he’s not worth the headache, there’s a real reason why. Would he fit in with a new club? Or wear out his welcome in Texas?

It seems like the best fit is for him to stay in Texas, where he’s found his greatest success and seems genuinely happy. But how much should the Rangers give him to DH when they already have more bats than spots in the line-up while they’re rebuilding?

I could see Bradley getting a 4 year, $50 million contract from someone. I could see Bradley settling for a one year, $10 million deal. I could see anything in between.

What would you offer Milton Bradley this winter?

The Phillies fell to the Marlins last night, 8-2, dropping their lead in the NL East to just one and a half games. I missed the game due to attending a Hootie and the Blowfish concert, but upon learning the score, developed a real gut feeling that Shane Victorino was somehow involved in those two runs. You see, Victorino, otherwise known as “The Flyin’ Hawaiian,” has been on an absolute tear over the last month and yet very few have realized. Sure enough, the box score revealed that the Phillies two runs came as a result of a two-run homer off the bat of Victorino. Granted, replays showed it was likely a foul ball, but that isn’t changing the stat sheets or the fact that he has been one of baseball’s best over the last month.

Thanks to the ‘last 30 days’ feature here we can definitively check how his performance has been and gauge it relative to the rest of the league. Here are his numbers:

Last 30 Days: .347/.386/.705, 1.091 OPS, 6 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 1.30 WPA/LI

His WPA/LI ranks behind just Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun, meaning that Victorino has arguably been the most productive players in the NL over the last thirty days, let alone the most productive centerfielder. Additionally, his 1.091 OPS and 8 HR top all centerfielders. To add even more fuel to the fire, all of this has been built upon a .316 BABIP; while the BABIPs of other hot performers in this span are ridiculously high and unsustainable, Shane’s has been relatively normal.

The recent stretch has brought his overall seasonal line to read: .288/.351/.451, 20 2B, 11 HR, 1.20 WPA/LI, 1.00 REW. His WPA/LI ranks fourth amongst NL centerfielders behind Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, and Carlos Beltran; his REW comes behind just McLouth and Beltran.

As The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball as well as a few other studies have shown, hot and cold streaks have very little predictive ability, so this isn’t to say Victorino will outslug Ryan Howard from here on out. Still, he has been very productive and I would be willing to wager that the vast majority of baseball knows next to nothing about him.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Shane would go .278/.343/.421 with 10 2B and 5 HR. This would bring his overall line to .284/.346/.441, with 30 2B and 16 HR. Compare then his projected 2008 finish to his 2006 and 2007 seasons:

2006: .287/.346/.414, .760 OPS, 19 2B, 6 HR
2007: .281/.347/.423, .770 OPS, 23 2B, 12 HR
2008: .284/.346/.441, .787 OPS, 30 2B, 16 HR

His BA and OBP would stay virtually the same while the value of those hits—more doubles and home runs—would increase. He may not get much better considering his age of 27 years old, but teams could do a lot worse than having a solid centerfielder with a very good arm who would top their speed charts and add a dimension of power. He may not get the publicity of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, but his contributions have definitely been key in getting the Phillies out of their recent funk.

One of my favorite additions of the year here at FanGraphs is the ability to split data down by time frames on the leaderboards. It makes finding out who has been hot or cold lately very easy, and it’s just a lot of fun. So, let’s take a stroll through the last 30 days of performance together.

On Fire

Justin Morneau: .345/.468/.690, 1.23 WPA/LI, 87 at-bats, 21 walks, 9 strikeouts.

Despite by praise for Denard Span this morning, Morneau is carrying the Twins offense right now. Minnesota really needed to get a hitter to stick behind him so that opposing pitchers are a bit more willing to pitch to him, because right now, Jason Kubel isn’t a sufficient threat.

Ryan Braun: .358/.397/.745, 1.46 WPA/LI, 106 at-bats, 7 walks, 24 strikeouts.

Braun’s on one of his patented slugfests, launching nine home runs in the last 30 days. He’s still as uber-aggressive as always, but with his raw power, it doesn’t matter. He can really hit a baseball a long ways.

Manny Ramirez: .453/.543/.787, 1.50 WPA/LI, 75 at-bats, 12 walks, 10 strikeouts.

For all the talk about Manny not playing hard for Boston, he was killing the ball when they traded him and he’s killing the ball in Los Angeles. Even with all his defensive issues and antics, it’s important to remember that Manny Being Manny includes him being one of the best hitters in the league.

Ice Cold

Jason Kendall: .148/.227/.216, -0.92 WPA/LI, 88 at-bats, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts

Braun is offsetting this miserable performance, as no amount of veteran leadership and game calling can make up for the fact that Kendall hits about as well as a pitcher nowadays. You have to wonder if the Brewers knew Pudge Rodriguez was available, because he would have been a monstrous upgrade for them at the deadline.

Mark Ellis: .188/.250/.259, -0.88 WPA/LI, 85 at-bats, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts

So much for all free agents going bananas in their walk years, as Ellis is struggling mightily as he heads towards a big payday this winter. His calling card remains his excellent defense at second base, but it’s his ability to hit a bit that sets him apart from guys like Adam Everett and John McDonald. Teams don’t value defense as highly on the open market as they do offensive performance, so if Ellis is going to land a big multiyear contract, he’d do well to start whacking the baseball again.

Jacoby Ellsbury: .226/.244/.262, -0.64 WPA/LI, 84 at-bats, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts

After a phenemonal debut last year, expectations for Ellsbury were high, but he’s run into the second year wall. His lack of power has pitchers challenging him in the strike zone, and while he’s making contact, he’s not doing anything with the ball when he puts the bat on it. As the slump has intensified, he’s tried to hack his way out of it, and that hasn’t worked much better. He’ll bounce back, but he’s got some adjustments to make, and right now, Boston can’t afford to have him making outs at the top of the line-up while they try to chase down the Rays.

It’s not often that professional baseball players slip under the radar, but it does happen. Just ask Mike Piazza, who was drafted in the 62nd round of the amateur draft. Or ask current Auburn Doubleday (New York Penn League) Adam Amar.

Amar was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of the Golden Baseball League where he spent one season with the Reno Silver Sox in Nevada. He caught the Toronto Blue Jays’ attention by hitting .354/.423/.625 in 96 at-bats. He was a four-year player at the University of Memphis and led the Conference USA with a .395 average in his junior season (1996) but was not drafted at all during his college career due to a perceived lack of power (He hit nine homers in 240 at-bats during his senior year) and below-average defensive skills at first base.

After signing his first contract with a Major League Baseball organization, Amar hit more than .400 in minor league spring training for the Jays in 2008 but was edged out for a spotting start in full-season Lansing (Midwest League) by 19-year-old Michael McDade, who struggled and is now Amar’s teammate in Auburn after a demotion. Adding to the depth at first base, the Jays selected David Cooper in the first round of the 2008 draft and he switched places with McDade and is now manning first base in Lansing (And is hitting .354/.416/.545 in 178 at-bats over two levels).

Amar, though, is making a case for full-season ball as well with a line of .353/.411/.607 with eight homers in 150 at-bats. The 22-year-old slugger has also struck out only 10 times to go along with 12 walks. He is first in the New York Penn League in average and doubles, second in slugging percentage and homers, third in on-base percentage and hits, and fourth in RBI. Only Oneonta’s Mike Gosse, a second baseman, has struck out fewer times with more than 100 at-bats – and he’s a contract hitter with zero homers.

Amar – who stands 6-4 and is 240 lbs – is also a well-rounded, right-handed hitter who is hitting .378 against southpaws and .345 against right-handers. He is hitting .356 with the bases empty and .333 with runners in scoring position. While many short-season hitters are beginning to fade, Amar has hit three homers and driven in 12 runs in his last six games.

He has a long way to go before he is ever mentioned in the same paragraph as Piazza again but Amar’s career is off to a nice start and it’s not hard to root for him.

The Twins head into August as surprising contenders in the A.L. Central. Perhaps no player has been a bigger surprise on that squad than Denard Span, who entered the year as a busted prospect but has had a breakthrough season and now finds himself as the Twins everyday right fielder. And with the way he’s playing, he’s not giving it up any time soon.

Since his return to Minnesota at the beginning of July, Span has hit .313/.403/.463 in 134 at-bats, racking up 0.53 WPA/LI in basically one month’s worth of playing time. As an extreme ground ball hitter (58% GB%), the power is a bit unexpected, but he’s doing it by hitting the ball on the screws (25% LD%). Adding the extra base hits to his ability to work the count (13% BB%) and his speed (7 infield hits, 2 bunt hits), and you’ve got a guy with an all around offensive attack.

Span won’t keep posting slugging marks this high, but he can certainly be a quality player with this skill set. Because of how often he slaps the ball into the ground, his upside is something resembling Ichiro-type OBP/SLG numbers (obviously with fewer hits and some more walks) than Kenny Lofton, just without the same propensity for stealing bases of either of those two. And, considering that 2008 is the first year Span has ever showed this level of offensive production, I hesitate to use those names, but we have to acknowledge that the speed/walks/defense package can produce a pretty terrific player.

Denard Span, right now, is what Boston fans thought Jacoby Ellsbury was going to be for them this year. He’s flying a bit under the radar, but keep on eye on the kid up in Minnesota. If they end up winning that division, he’s going to be one of the main reasons why.

The conventional wisdom for pitchers is that they want to strike out twice as many batters as they walk. A two to one K/BB rate is seen as the foundation for what a pitcher should aim for, and obviously, the better pitchers will get to three to one or higher. Generally, if a pitcher is striking out three times as many batters as he’s walking, he’s going to succeed, even if he isn’t particularly good at anything else. That kind of strike zone dominance makes it very easy to get hitters out on a regular basis.

Take, for instance, this group of starters, all who have basically identical K/BB rates, just a tick above 3.00: Johan Santana, Zach Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Derek Lowe, Andy Pettitte. That’s an all-star cast of front line starters. But there’s one name missing from the group, a guy with a K/BB that puts him square in the middle of such select company.

Jesse Litsch. You know, the guy Toronto optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.

Seriously, go take a look at Litsch’s season numbers. His 4.46 ERA is supported by a 4.58 FIP, showing that he’s been basically as good as advertised. He offsets a lack of strikeouts by pounding the strike zone regularly, not walking anyone (1.49 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (49.8% GB%). However, he struggled in three consecutive starts leading up to his demotion, and a couple of weeks of poor work was enough for the Blue Jays to conclude that he would be better served working on his weaknesses in the minor leagues.

Maybe they’re right – they’re closer to Litsch than we are, and so they’re privy to information that we are not, but it’s hard to come up with a scenario where a guy with a 3.00+ K/BB rate isn’t good enough to pitch in the major leagues right now.

Logan Morrison is one hot fish prospect.

Signed via the now defunct draft-and-follow process, Morrison was a B-level prospect entering the 2008 season, looking to build on a promising 2007 season. In 2005, he was selected in the 22nd round out of the same community college program that produced St. Louis’ Albert Pujols.

The 20-year-old, left-handed hitting first baseman slugged 24 homers and hit .267/.343/.483 in his first full pro season in 2007 in A-ball. The hard-working player struggled with southpaws on the mound and hit below .200.

Although the homers are down in 2008 at High-A ball (13 in 391 at-bats), Morrison is hitting .359 against lefties and .355/.414/.547 overall. He has 34 doubles, a line drive rate of 22 percent and has struck out just 58 times. Morrison is also developing a reputation as a run producer with a .348 average with runners in scoring position, along with 51 RBI in 89 at-bats.

While a lot of young players wear down as the season progresses, Morrison has grown stronger and hit .396/.442/.614 in 101 July at-bats. He also walked nine times and struck out just eight times. If he keeps this up, Morrison could be near the top of the Marlins’ prospect list by the end of the season.

One of the most sought after players leading up to, and at, the trading deadline was Kansas City Royals reliever Ron Mahay. I’m not sure if he was ever really going anywhere or if the media latched onto this effective lefty as a potential savior for some teams, brewing the trade winds themselves. Regardless, he stayed put and is still a late inning lefty for the Royals. In looking at his numbers, I was quite surprised (and embarrassed) to find out that he is actually in the midst of his twelfth big league season; I honestly had not heard of him prior to 2001.

From 1997-2002 his numbers jumped all over the place. Here are his FIPs and LOB% in that span:

1997: 4.23, 89.2%
1998: 5.02, 67.2%
1999: 3.38, 85.4%
2000: 6.54, 69.1%
2001: 5.41, 98.1%
2002: 8.01, 55.6%

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mahay is what it appeared to be throughout these six years, but he apparently still performed well enough to earn more opportunities. That could largely be due to the fact that his career ERA is close to a full run below his FIP; the controllable skills might not be there but that does not automatically disqualify him from effectiveness. From 2003 to the midpoint of 2007 he played for the Rangers before being traded to Atlanta in the Mark Teixieira deal. In the off-season he signed with the Royals and has been one of the most effective relievers this year, and arguably the best non-closer.

In looking at the Relievers page on the leaderboards here, Mahay has the 5th highest WPA of any reliever in baseball. The top portion of that board is generally reserved to closers as they usually perform in the most pressure-filled situations; Mahay’s position means he has found himself in some tight jams and performed admirably in escaping from them.

Now, WPA is not an end-all barometer, but it does have more merit when dealing with relievers. Still, I like to think of it the way Dave Studeman thinks of it, as a “story stat,” one that mirrors our emotions in the game and tells the story of exactly what happened. Based on our emotions when watching, Mahay’s performance has been worth about three wins this year. Teammate Joakim Soria ranks second with a 3.57 WPA, so they have quite possibly been the best relief tandem in baseball this year, yet both are likely still unknown in numerous areas across the country.

When we look at WPA/LI, however, or context-neutral wins, Mahay falls to thirteenth, worth about one win. Soria ranks first in the whole league, at just about two wins, and another of their teammates, Ramon Ramirez, actually ranks ninth, ahead of Mahay. WPA/LI counts each plate appearance as its own entity and attempts to rid the bias in WPA that credits certain situations as being worth many more plate appearances. This tells us that Mahay has been very adept in late-inning situations but his overall performance has not been as incredible as we may think.

He is still performing very well and would most likely be an upgrade on any of the teams that received him, but he is not a savior. And especially considering his trade would have taken place at the deadline, when as Dave showed, the upgrades would not be as substantial with just fifty games remaining, you have to wonder how much of an upgrade he even would have been. As I said, he is a very good reliever relative to the last two years, but a team’s success should not hinge upon acquiring Ron Mahay.