Archive for 2008

Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sport a pythagorean record nine games worse than their actual mark, they have outdone this run-based estimator each year since 2004. Credit Mike Scioscia as a tremendous manager, or the makeup of the team, but the fact remains they currently own the best record in baseball. On top of that they hold an 11.5 game lead over the second place Rangers; quite honestly, barring some drastic, unforeseen event, this division is all but locked up.

One of the reasons the Halos have been so effective to date is their starting rotation. With that in mind, let’s take a look at its members and see if we can get to know these pitchers a little better.

John Lackey
9-2, 3.10 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 80.1% LOB, 3.40 K/BB
HR/FB between 5.7% and 9.0% from 2004-07; currently 12.4%

Ervin Santana
12-5, 3.38 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .294 BABIP, 74.5% LOB, 3.67 K/BB
2007: 150.0 IP, 174 H, 96 ER, 26 HR, 58 BB, 126 K
2008: 149.1 IP, 130 H, 59 ER, 14 HR, 39 BB, 143 K

Joe Saunders
14-5, 3.09 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .244 BABIP, 77.4% LOB, 1.74 K/BB
6th lowest K/9 at 4.38, 4th lowest BABIP, 1st lowest LD rate at 13.5%

Jered Weaver
9-9, 4.37 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 2.59 K/BB
Most numbers better than 2007 but less flyballs with an increase in HR/FB

Jon Garland
10-6, 4.30 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, .299 BABIP, 72.4% LOB, 1.40 K/BB
5th lowest K/9 at 4.11, FIP 4.24-4.36 from 2005-07
47.9% GB (from 39.4% in 07), 28.4% FB (from 37.7% in 07), but 11.9% HR/FB (from 7.1% in 07)

Of these five pitchers, based on their BABIPs and strand rates, it appears that Santana and Garland are the most “for real.” Weaver’s strand rate is right around league average but his BABIP has been well below average. Lackey’s strand rate is likely unsustainable, regardless of how talented he may be, and given his BABIPs in the .300+ range over the last few years, a .266 mark is quite low.

Saunders and Santana seem to be on opposite ends of the luck/skills spectrum. Lefty Joe has built his seasonal line upon an unsustainably low BABIP, a high 77.4% strand rate, one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, and one of the lowest rates of line drives in the last twenty years. Could he defy the odds and prove to be regression-proof? Sure, it happens time to time. I just wouldn’t bet on him being as effective from here on out. Santana, on the other hand, has more earthbound numbers and, as surprising as it may be that he is the same guy that looked lucky to have a job last year, he has not benefited from too much luck this year.

When Saunders, Lackey, and Weaver experience their likely regressions it won’t hurt the Angels chances of making the playoffs but it does call into question who may start in that division series against the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees. Lackey is going to be the #1, and based on performance to date, Santana should be #2, but who would you start in that series? Do you trust Saunders enough to sustain these ridiculous rates? Or would you throw him in regardless given the fact that he is a lefty?

When the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez last week, many assumed it was to replace the pair of busted free agents signed the last couple of winters, Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones. They were only half right – while Jones takes his rightful seat on the bench, Joe Torre remains enamored with Juan Pierre, who has been anointed as the team’s center fielder for the remainder of the year. To make room for Ramirez, Andre Ethier heads to the bench.

From an offensive perspective, this is ridiculous. Pierre is hitting .281/.326/.318 compared to Ethier’s .274/.339/.442 mark. Pierre’s abilities on the base paths are canceled out – and then some – by Ethier’s ability to hit the ball out of the infield. In fact, thanks to the Hardball Times newly published rest-of-season Marcel projections and Tom Tango’s Wins Above Replacement calculations, we can quantify the win value differences between the two.

Offensively, Ethier’s expected performance in August and September will be worth about six runs above a replacement level corner outfielder. Not bad for two months. Pierre, on the other hand, pretty much defines replacement level. He’s projected at a whopping half a run over a replacement level center fielder over the next two months. Not impressive, Juan.

So, by giving Pierre a couple hundred at-bats that would have otherwise gone to Ethier, the Dodgers are punting about five runs of offense, which translates to about half a win. Considering how tight most people expect the race to be down the stretch, you don’t just punt several runs for the heck of it.

However, we haven’t taken defense entirely into account yet. Ethier’s five run advantage would only hold if both he and Pierre were average defenders for their respective positions, but the Dodgers clearly believe this isn’t the case, putting Pierre in the line-up for his fly catching ability. John Dewan’s +/- system supports this assertion, having Pierre at +12 plays in CF in 2006 and +9 plays in CF last year. He’s +4 plays in limited time in LF this year. The conclusion for Pierre seems relatively obvious – he’s a better than average defensive CF, probably something like +1.7 runs over the remaining 1/3 of the season.

The picture on Ethier isn’t as clear. Dewan’s +/- loved him in RF last year (+16) but hates him this year (-7), though it has him basically average in each of the last three years in LF. The RF numbers are probably sample size noise, as it’s highly unlikely that Ethier is either good or terrible as a corner OF, given what scouting data and other defensive systems tell us about his abilities. The best assumption is that he’s about average, though we have to make that conclusion with less confidence than with Pierre.

The defensive difference closes the gap, but only partially so. In fact, to balance out the offensive differences over the remaining two months, we’d have to accept that Pierre is both a +10 run defender over a full season in CF and that Ethier is a -13 run defender in RF/LF over a full season. If both of those opinions about their relative defensive abilities were true, they’d be pretty much equal in talent – about 2.5 runs above a replacement level outfielder for the final two months.

The Dodgers obviously believe the defensive difference is large enough to justify giving Pierre at-bats at Ethier’s expense. I doubt they’re right, however. Most likely, they’e punting a couple of runs the rest of the year by choosing the wrong player. But I do think there’s enough vagueness in our ability to evaluate defensive abilities to admit that the Dodgers may not be making the worst decision ever. If they’re right about the defensive difference, it’s not a big deal which one starts.

If they’re not, however, it could cost them the division. Sounds like a high risk, no reward decision to me.

Let’s play a little game. Below are seasonal lines for four of the top pitchers in the National League, and I would like you to try and identify the owners while simultaneously deciding which holds the best numbers:

a) 3.04 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 7.60 K/9, 3.33 K/BB, .294 BABIP
b) 2.59 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 9.02 K/9, 3.70 K/BB, .292 BABIP
c) 3.14 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.56 K/9, 3.51 K/BB, .303 BABIP
d) 3.28 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.77 K/9, 3.69 K/BB, .304 BABIP

All four have earthbound BABIPs so it isn’t to say one has been more or less lucky than another in that area, and each has very solid numbers. While any team should feel safe with any one of these pitchers, I would tend to think that Pitcher B has the best numbers of the group. His WHIP is the lowest, K/9 the highest, K/BB the highest, ERA the lowest, with a higher-but-still-great FIP.

With that in mind, here are the identities:

a) Brandon Webb
b) Jake Peavy
c) Ben Sheets
d) CC Sabathia

Of the four pitching lines above, Jake Peavy arguably has the best numbers, and yet this baseball fan/writer simply has not heard anything about his performance to date. With so many surprise-pitchers like Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, et al, hogging the headlines and the Padres spending most of the season as cellar-dwellars, the Jakester has seemingly been lost in the shuffle. His 8-7 W-L record does not help him much either; while many of us understand how W-L records are terrible barometers there are many more fans who treat that stat as gospel.

One aspect of Peavy’s performance line due to regress is his strand rate. To date he has allowed very few baserunners and 84.5% of them have been left on base. The league average is around 72% and an absolutely tremendous season may result in a 77-79% rate; sustaining an 84.5% rate just is not very likely. When this does regress, it means more runners will score, which should lessen the gap between his ERA and FIP; however, his numbers will likely still be very, very good.

Plugging him into the in-season Marcel, Peavy is expected to finish off the season with 56 innings over nine starts, walking 17 and fanning 55 batters. His WHIP over the remainder would be an almost-identical 1.14, while his FIP would drop to 3.07. Should this come to fruition, his season would finish like this:

28 GS, 178 IP, 150 H, 50 BB, 177 K, 1.12 WHIP, 2.74 ERA, 3.21 FIP

There are very few pitchers in the league likely to finish with numbers better than that yet nobody seems to be discussing him. Maybe he has the Pujols-syndrome in which everyone expects tremendous numbers and because of that would rather discuss the surprises. That doesn’t seem very fair though. In closing, here are Peavy’s ranks in the NL:

1st, 2.59 ERA
2nd, 3.70 K/BB
2nd, 27.66 BRAA
3rd, 2.75 REW
3rd, 1.12 WHIP
5th, 9.02 K/9
6th, 3.27 FIP
6th, 1.99 WPA/LI

To me, that’s someone who should be getting some recognition, regardless of whether or not his performance level is expected.

Francisco Liriano is back. Well, literally, at least, if not yet figuratively. Yesterday, Liriano made his return to the Twins rotation after spending May, June, and July in Triple-A and waiting for Minnesota to tire of Livan Hernandez. After they realized that a team on the cusp of first place couldn’t really afford to keep a guy pitching as well as Liriano was off the roster, they finally made the obvious move and gave him his old job back.

Day one went well. 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts. His command wasn’t there, throwing 40 of his 96 pitches out of the strike zone, but the Indians didn’t capitalize and he spun his first winning decision of the year. If Liriano can channel his old self, adding him to the team would be the biggest upgrade any team has made all year. But is yesterday’s performance, coupled with his recent destruction of Triple-A, proof that he’s back to the Liriano we saw in 2006?

To answer those kinds of questions, we need to look at what Liriano was throwing, and so we turn to the Pitch F/x data from his start yesterday.

To begin the game, he came after Grady Sizemore with a 91 MPH fastball (called strike), a 92 MPH fastball (ball), an 84 MPH slider (foul), an MPH slider (ball), and an 86 MPH slider (swinging strike). In ’06, his average fastball was 94.7 MPH and his average slider was 87.7, so even though he struck out Sizemore to start off, it wasn’t the Liriano of old. It didn’t get much better, stuff wise.

The fastest pitch Liriano threw all day was 92.3 MPH and his average fastball was 90.9 MPH. He threw 57 fastballs (59%), 19 sliders (20%), and 20 change-ups (21%), showing a significant increase in fastballs thrown at the expense of the slider compared to his 2005 and 2006 seasons.

Liriano is certainly a lot better, and a lot healthier, than he was at the start of the season. And perhaps this incarnation of Liriano can be a big asset that helps carry the team down the stretch, but this is not the same pitcher who was taking the league by storm several years ago. The stuff isn’t back yet.

After losing again last night, the Washington Nationals have now dropped nine straight games, pushing their league worst record to 38-70. They’re on pace to finish 57-105, and while that won’t make them the worst team ever, they’re playing like it.

Or are they? Over the last month, the Nationals are 4-18, which is pretty horrible, but they’ve allowed just 4.4 runs per game over that 22 game stretch. Their offense has still been bad, scoring just 3.6 runs per game, but a 0.8 run per game differential isn’t the kind of thing you expect when a team goes 4-18 and drops nine straight games. Using a pythagorean expectation based on their runs scored and allowed, the Nationals have played more like a .432 team over their last 22 games, which would give them a 10-12 pythag record.

The Nationals aren’t a good team, but they aren’t this bad. For those fans in San Diego and Seattle hoping to out-lose the Nationals in the race for Stephen Strasburg, have a little hope – progression to the mean is on the way. Washington’s the worst team in baseball, but they’re not a .352 club.

As well all know, yesterday was the July 31 trade deadline for Major League Baseball. Even though it was fairly quiet, a number of interesting prospects traded hands, so let’s take a look at some of them.

Gaby Hernandez, RHP
Age:22 | Level: Double-A/Triple-A
From Florida to Seattle for Arthur Rhodes

Hernandez was demoted to Double-A after posting a 7.24 ERA in 13 Triple-A starts. Only 22, the right-hander still has lots of upside and was originally drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft by the New York Mets. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca. He was sent to Florida in the Paul LoDuca trade prior to the 2007 season. Hernandez has an excellent curve ball, a low-90s fastball and a change-up. He represents a nice return for a 38-year-old LOOGY.

Andy LaRoche, 3B
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

LaRoche should finally get the opportunity to play everyday, which he deserves. He possesses the potential to hit 25-30 homers, although it remains to be seen how well he will hit for average. Pittsburgh has done a nice job of turning Jason Bay’s and Xavier Nady’s above-average seasons into quality prospects. Brother Adamand Andy will have a chance to play in the same infield.

Bryan Morris, RHP
Age: 21 | Level: A-ball
Traded from Los Angeles to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Morris was a first-round selection in the 2006 draft by the Dodgers but missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has been strong this season though by allowing 73 hits and 31 walks in 81.2 innings. Morris has also struck out 72 batters and could be a nice No. 2 starter with a low-90s fastball, curve, slider and change.

Craig Hansen, RHP
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

The former first round pick out of St. John’s University really needed out of Boston. Although he made it to the Majors shortly after being drafted, he has never been able to stick at the big league level due to below-average command and control. In 2008, he had a 5.58 ERA for Boston in 30.2 innings after allowing 29 hits and 23 walks with 25 strikeouts. Hansen has a mid-90s fastball but is still trying to improve his slider which has slipped a grade or two since college.

Brandon Moss, OF
Age: 24 | Level: Triple-A/Majors
Traded from Boston to Pittsburgh in the three-team Manny Ramirez deal

Moss could get the opportunity to play everyday in Pittsburgh but he is probably a fourth outfielder long-term. The left-handed batter hit .282/.346/.528 in 163 Triple-A at-bats this season and .295/.337/.462 in 78 Major League at-bats. Moss strikes out too much and has just modest power for the corner outfield. He was originally selected in the eighth round out of high school in the 2002 draft.

Well, the trade deadline has passed which means that teams can no longer exchange players and that players cannot change teams from here on out. Or wait, nevermind, they still can, just not through conventional methods. Players can still switch sides for the next month through the magical waiver wire. Everyone has heard the term “waiver” tossed around with cavalier delivery but its actual meaning and implications are not necessarily known by most fans. If you have ever been confused with regards to its exactitudes, do not worry because you are not alone.

For starters, what is the waiver wire? Essentially, the waiver wire is used to gauge interest in certain players of a team as well as make moves when the trading deadline has passed. If a team puts a player of theirs on waivers it does not mean they are steadfastly interesting in moving him; instead, it could mean they are curious as to what could be obtained for his services or perhaps how many teams show interest.

This leads into a bit of “waiver theory.” Teams will put many of their players on waivers, even if they have no intention whatsoever of even listening to offers or taking notice of piqued interest. This occurs because the team in question wants to disguise the players they are actually offering. As a pure hypothetical, a player placed on waivers with an OPS of, say, .760, might look more enticing when surrounded on the waiver wire by teammates with much higher or much lower marks. This same player might not catalyze much discussion if placed by his lonesome.

A player is placed on waivers at 2 PM on day one and has until 1 pm, two business days later, to be claimed. If nobody made a claim for him, and the team doesn’t want his services anymore, they can either send him to the minors, release him, or even work out a trade. If a player is claimed prior to this deadline, the owning team can either pull their man off of waivers, work out a trade, or do nothing and let the claiming team receive the player. Once a player is pulled off of waivers he cannot be traded for another month. Additionally, you can only be pulled off once; if pulled off and placed back on, the player is fair game.

What happens if there are multiple claims? The team with the worst record in the same league gets precedent. If nobody in the same league makes a claim this same rule reverts to the opposite league; the team with the worst record has first dibs, so to speak. For the first month of the season, the previous year’s W-L records are used to gauge these dibs. After that, current season records come into play. This again leads into some waiver theory or strategy, in that some teams will put in a claim simply to block another team from getting a certain player. If the Red Sox want a relief pitcher on waivers, and make a claim for him, the Yankees, who have a worse record, may also make a claim in the hopes that their rivals cannot improve their team.

Then again, if the team owning the relief pitcher doesn’t pull him off of waivers, the Yankees would then be stuck with him whether they like him or not. I hope this cleared up some confusion relative to the inner workings of the waiver wire because, over the next month, it is safe to say we are not going to be at any type of drought of waiver-talk.

The information in this article was derived from an old Jayson Stark article, an older Steve Phillips article, and Tim Dierkes’ post from 2006. Thanks also to Keith Law for further clarifications.

I think we can officially put the issue to rest – Joba Chamberlain is a starting pitcher, and a darn good one. After Wednesday’s performance, he’s now made 11 starts since the Yankees converted him back to the rotation from the bullpen, and his performance is basically equal in both roles.

Starter: 60 2/3 IP, 9% BB%, 27% K%, 0.29 HR/9, 2.49 FIP
Reliever: 23 2/3 IP, 11% BB%, 31% K%, 0.38 HR/9, 2.61 FIP

Despite his command issues in his first couple of starts, Joba’s pounding the strike zone with more regularity now that he’s moved into the starting role. Because he’s not throwing max effort on every pitch, his velocity is down, so the strikeout rate declines a bit as well, but it’s offset since he’s throwing more strikes and has a slightly better home run rate.

He won’t be able to keep his home run rate this low, so he’s due for a bit of a regression, but as a guy who gets a lot of ground balls (53.7% GB%), he’s going to allow fewer long balls than the average starter. When you combine a three to one strikeout to walk ratio with a depressed home run rate, you have a front line starting pitcher. It’s still early, but right now, Joba’s profiling as a Jake Peavy type of pitcher.

The rich get richer.

Well, baseball never ceases to surprise – it’s being reported that the Dodgers stepped in at the last minute to win the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes, taking Florida’s spot in the three team deal, and enabling the Red Sox to still end up with Jason Bay.

No final word on who is going where, so it’s tough to provide analysis, but the Red Sox have to be happy to have Bay instead of Ramirez, you have to assume the Pirates got what they wanted in order to move their star outfielder, which means that the Dodgers almost certainly paid a high price.

The Pirates will reportedly receive 3B Andy LaRoche, RHP Bryan Morris, OF Brandon Moss, and RHP Craig Hansen. The Red Sox get Bay and the Dodgers get Ramirez.

So, the Dodgers got Manny, but didn’t give up any outfielders, meaning that they now have two spots available for Kemp/Ethier/Jones/Pierre. That’s going to be fun for Torre to manage. If they can manage to keep Jones and Pierre on the bench most of the time, this is a pretty big upgrade, considering those two are not good at all. If Manny takes time away from Ethier or Kemp, it’s not a good move.

The Red Sox get Bay and rid themselves of the Manny show. They win.

The Pirates don’t get any stars back, but both LaRoche and Moss could be solid players, while Morris is a big arm and Hansen has some value as a reliever salvage project.

Pitcher Jeff Samardzija likes to keep us guessing.

The Chicago Cubs right-hander was selected in the fifth round of the 2006 amateur draft and was actually the club’s second pick of the day due to a lack of second, third and fourth round selections (thanks to a free agent frenzy the previous winter).

Samardzija was given a significant contract to forgo a pro football career after spending his college days playing both sports at Notre Dame. At one point he was considered the top-rated wide receiver in the 2007 NFL draft.

Samardzija began his pro baseball career in 2006 in Rookie Ball and held his own, which earned him a late-season promotion to the Midwest League where he made two starts. Samardzija began 2007 in High-A ball but put up disappointing numbers with 142 hits allowed in 107.1 innings of work. He also walked 35 and struck out just 45 batters despite working in the mid- to high-90s.

The Cubs organization decided to promote Samardzija at the end of that season to Double-A where he made six starts despite the disappointing numbers in High-A ball. A funny thing happened. His numbers improved when everyone expected him to struggle. Albeit in fewer appearances, Samardzija’s H/9 ratio dropped from 11.91 to 8.65 and his K/9 increased from 3.77 to 5.24 (which was still low).

Samardzija repeated Double-A at the beginning of 2008 and again posted disappointing numbers with 71 hits allowed in 76 innings, along with 42 walks and just 44 strikeouts. The organization was aggressive with Samardzija and promoted him to Triple-A and he responded. He allowed 32 hits in 37.1 innings and walked 16 to go along with 40 strikeouts (the first time he came anywhere close to striking out a batter per nine innings).

Samardzija, 23, with a football background and mentality seems to thrive under pressure and in situations where he needs to rise to the occasion. At Triple-A with the bases empty, batters hit .275 against the pitcher. With runners in scoring position, hitters managed just a .207 average. In three recent Major League appearances, Samardzija allowed three hits and one walk in five relief innings on the biggest baseball stage in the world. He also struck out six batters.

So, yes, Samardzija’s pro numbers have been very disappointing prior to 2008, but he may have just needed a push – or shove – to rise to the occasion. I know Cubs fans, hungry for a World Series title, certainly hope this riddle has been solved.

Let’s just hope he doesn’t get too comfortable too soon.