Archive for 2008

When the Tigers traded two of their top four prospects in Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria this past offseason, they had to have set high expectations for the Colombian shortstop. After all, in each of the last three seasons he has increased his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Suffice it to say, close to the 100-games mark, he has not come close to meeting them.

In 82 games he has produced a .254/.301/.326 slash line, “good” for a .627 OPS. He has walked much less, doing so in 6.7% of his plate appearances compared to the 8.1-9.4% of the three years prior. In addition he is not only hitting less but when he does they are not normally of the extra-bases variety. He has just five doubles and five home runs. Add in his lone triple and he has 11 extra-base hits on the season. Of players with at least 300 plate appearances, that ranks as the second worst in baseball, ahead of nobody other than Gregor Blanco.

Now, just because he has performed this way to date does not mean he will continue to do so over the course of the season. Projection systems base their judgments on actual historical data, so they do not just come from thin air. Renteria’s Marcel projection for this year included a .295/.357/.425 slash line, a .782 OPS, 10 home runs, and 29 doubles. He is clearly off pace but how much so? How has his performance so far this year effected what should be expected of him?

Luckily, Sal Baxamusa of The Hardball Times created a spreadsheet that allows us to project performance in-season based on current statistics as well as those from the past three seasons. Using this, Renteria’s projection over the remainder of the season includes a .282/.342/.402 slash line, a .744 OPS, 5 home runs, and 13 doubles. His projected OPS in the second half comes relatively close to his pre-season projection, but what happens when we add back in his poor first half?

With the aforementioned second half, Renteria would finish this year at .267/.320/.360, a .680 OPS, 10 home runs, and 18 doubles. His OPS would be 100 points lower than his pre-season projection, and the only number he matched would be the 10 gopher balls. Quite simply, a .680 OPS from a shortstop expected to be a key ingredient on a team “that could score 1,000 runs this year” is terrible. Add in that he only had one year left on his contract—and a 2009 club option—entering this season and that the Tigers traded away two key prospects, and, while it is yet to be determined how the Braves will make out with Jurrjens and Hernandez, the Tigers end of this deal does not appear it will work out the way they hoped.

Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, and Renteria could be an outlier defying his projection, but he would have to recover from a hamstring injury to post some extra-gaudy numbers for this to happen.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ top two pitching – not currently at the Major League level – are headed in different directions. Adam Ottavino and Jess Todd were both drafted within the top two rounds of the 2006 and 2007 drafts. And both were solid college pitchers, although Ottavino has been a starter throughout his college and pro career, while Todd was converted to a full-time starter in pro ball.

Ottavino, 22, was selected 30th overall in the 2006 draft out of Northeastern University and had a solid pro debut in 2006. He followed that up with another good season, although he was not quite as good as some of his superficial numbers would suggest. In High-A ball, Ottavino posted a 3.08 ERA with a record of 12-8. Those numbers masked some other numbers that were not as impressive, including a 3.96 BB/9 rate and an 8.04 K/9, which is OK but not spectacular for his age, level and experience. So far in 2008, Ottavino has had a rough season at Double-A. He has a 6.08 ERA in 66.2 innings and has allowed 72 hits. Ottavino has also posted 37 walks and 59 strikeouts. He has allowed more than a hit an inning for the first time in his career and his walk rate has risen to almost five per game, at 4.90 BB/9. His strikeout totals are about the same at 8.16 K/9. After allowing fewer than one homer per nine innings in his career, Ottavino currently has a rate of 1.48 HR/9 in Springfield.

On the other hand, Jess Todd, 22, has thrived at Double-A. The 2007 second round pick out of the University of Arkansas currently has a 2.31 ERA in 74 innings pitched with 51 hits allowed. He has walked just 17 batters with 57 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .199 against him and he has a rate of 5.84 H/9. One downside is that after averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two minor league stops, Todd now has a rate of 6.93 K/9. He has offset that by walking just 2.07 batters per nine innings. If you take out his worst outing of the year, which occurred in his last start when he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings, Todd would have a career ERA of 2.09 with 111 hits allowed in 155 innings.

Prospects Chris Perez and Jaime Garcia have already made an impact at the Major League level this season for the Cardinals and Todd does not seem that far away. He could even find himself in the majors before the end of the season. Ottavino, on the other hand, has a few more adjustments to make before making the next step.

We all know that Jamie Moyer doesn’t throw very hard. He’s thrown 3,700 innings over his 22 year career, and at 45 years old, the guy who was known for his soft tossing ways is throwing even slower than ever. His average fastball so far this year has been 80.9 MPH, and according to the Pitch F/x tool by Josh Kalk, he’s thrown 518 pitches with a velocity below 80 MPH, compared to 566 pitches with a velocity greater than 80 MPH.

In other words, it’s just as likely that Moyer will throw you a pitch in the 65-79 MPH range as a pitch in the 80-85 range. Those are the kinds of velocities that will make scouts stop watching you in high school – almost everyone who played varsity ball in school faced a guy who threw harder than Moyer does now.

And it doesn’t matter. Moyer’s running a 4.35 FIP and 3.95 ERA, his lowest marks since his 2003 season in Seattle. His 5.53 K/9 and 46.8% GB% are more in line with a guy who throws a sinker and pounds the bottom of the strike zone with 90 MPH two-seam fastballs. Take a look at his career K/9 graph, and see if you can identify the decreases in his velocity:

While now throwing a fastball that routinely sits at 78 or 79 MPH, he’s striking out just as many batters as he always has. It’s unbelievable.

Jamie Moyer is amazing, and while he’s not the best pitcher we’ve ever seen, he might be the most remarkable.

In the third inning of the Padres-Braves game yesterday, while trailing 1-0 to his former employer, Greg Maddux tried to make something happen. With one out, he singled off of Charlie Morton, and proceeded to steal second base following the next retired batter. The inning would ultimately fail to produce a run for the Friars but the stolen base added yet another accomplishment to Greg’s long hall of fame resume. At 42 years and 89 days old, Maddux became the oldest pitcher to steal a base, a mark previously held by Jim Kaat.

According to Greg they weren’t holding him on and it wasn’t a big deal because, even if he was thrown out, the lineup had already been turned over. Plus, the Padres were struggling to score runs and, pitcher or no pitcher, he was a baserunner.

Greg has stolen eleven bases in his career while thrice being caught. He has not, however, failed in an attempt since the 2000 season, going a perfect 7-7 since. Stealing one base in each of the 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008 seasons, Maddux actually stole two in the 2006 season; one while on the Cubs and one while in Dodger blue. Here are the pitcher/catcher batteries unsuccessful in preventing the speedy professor:

2002: Tomo Ohka/Michael Barrett
2004: Jason Marquis/Mike Matheny
2005: Jae Seo/Ramon Castro
2006: Matt Cain/Eliezer Alfonzo AND Chris Young/Mike Piazza
2007: Jeff Francis/Yorvit Torrealba
2008: Charlie Morton/Brian McCann

He has pitched fairly well this year—3.90 ERA/3.92 FIP—and his in-season Marcel projects him to get even better over his next 12-15 starts. Still, this may be his final season and I would not be surprised in the least if he finds himself in a new uniform prior to the trading deadline. A contending team likely would not need to part with a top-tier prospect for his services and teams could do far worse than plug him in as a #3 or #4 starter. The Padres have been a severe disappointment this year after coming within one game of the playoffs in 2007; it would do them well to work towards assembling an offense capable enough of preventing pitchers from feeling that if they do not steal bases, they will not be batted in.

As Eric noted in his post about the Futures Game, the starting pitcher for the World Team was Carlos Carrasco, widely accepted as the best pitching prospect on the international team roster. His name is brought up often in trade speculation, as the Phillies contemplate making a move to improve their major league roster, and he’s universally accepted as Philadelphia’s best prospect.

I’m just wondering, though, if we’re ever going to stop and realize that he’s just not that special?

During the Futures Game, we heard Steve Phillips gush about his electric stuff, all while Carrasco was throwing 88-92 MPH fastballs up in the strike zone. On the big stage, where he can go max effort for one inning, he tops out at 93. That’s not special – that’s average. It’s not just yesterday, either – Carrasco really does possess a fastball that averages around 90-92, which is inherently unspecial.

His calling card is a nasty change-up that sits in the low-80s and with sink that makes it a real weapon against left-handed batters. That’s a premium pitch, no doubt. However, his breaking ball is average at best, and just isn’t a knockout pitch. Realistically, he’s a fastball-changeup guy with a breaking ball that he’ll mix in occasionally.

That one plus pitch repertoire shows up in his minor league performance to date, which simply doesn’t match the hype he’s received. In 396 innings of work over four seasons, he’s racked up a grand total of 350 strikeouts for a 7.95 K/9 mark. That would be a fine mark in the majors, but once you adjust that performance to account for the inferior competition, it’s about equal to 6.0 K/9 in the major leagues.

That’s about a major league average strikeout rate, and there are certainly pitchers who are very effective with that kind of swing-and-miss percentage, but it’s almost always because they have another elite skill – either great command or a fantastic sinker that creates a lot of ground balls in most cases. Carrasco doesn’t possess either of those things. His command is average at best, a problem at worst, and while his fastball has movement, it’s not a sinker.

Realistically, Carrasco projects out right now as a 3.5 BB, 6.0 K, 45% GB% guy. That’s not an ace in the making – that’s the current iteration of Kevin Millwood. Toss in the injury concerns (Carrasco isn’t a picture of health) and we really have to ask ourselves what the big deal is.

Carrasco has a chance to be a nice back-of-the-rotation major league starter, and his change-up should allow him to keep lefties from beating him up, but I fail to see any evidence that he’s a premium prospect, or that teams should be lining up to convince Pat Gillick to give them Carrasco in exchange for their all-star major leaguers.

Yesterday, while teams wound down prior to the All-Star festivities, some of the top minor league prospects participated in the Futures Game. The World defeated the United States 3-0, and wow does that sound odd when repeated out loud. While I didn’t get to watch anything other than Carlos Carrasco’s inning—says the Phillies fan—I was more interested in seeing the Pitch F/X data for the minor league extravaganza. With that in mind, I decided to take a look at the wide array of pitchers who found their way into the game, in order to provide a sneak peak of sorts as far as what teams may be in store for.

Now, granted, all of these are small samples as each pitcher went for no more than one inning of work, but the velocity and movement readings below should be interesting for at least an “initial” look. For reference, the numbers will go: velocity in mph followed by movement in horizontal inches/vertical inches. An example would be, FA = 90.01, 3.32/4.56. First, the lefties:

• Brett Anderson, Athletics: FA = 92.37, 3.34/8.73, CB = 81.53, -5.05/-3.24
• Polin Trinidad, Astros: FA = 88.18, 6.05/9.65, CH = 81.18, 7.08/6.57

And that concludes our look at the lefthanded pitchers partaking in the Futures Game. Clayton Richard, a lefthanded White Sox prospect, did pitch but the system offered insufficient data to get any sense other than his fastball appeared to be around 89-90 miles per hour. Next up, the righties:

• Carlos Carrasco, Phillies: FA = 91.46, -7.53/10.05, CH = 83.58, -9.18/2.53
• Casey Weathers, Rockies: FA = 96.21, -9.95/8.70, SL = 85.49, 1.95/-0.03
• Eduardo Morlan, Rays: FA = 89.44, -9.64/9.62, SL = 80.63, -1.04/1.38, CH = 79.57, -8.78/3.61
• Fernando Salas, Cardinals: FA = 91.50, -8.51/9.92, CH = 84.13, -9.91/5.22
• Hector Rondon, Indians: FA = 93.28, -8.11/10.65, SL = 80.23, 1.11/-0.48
• Henry Rodriguez, Athletics: FA = 98.09, -10.07/9.85, SL/CUT = 91.95, -4.58/4.25
• Jake Arrieta, Orioles: FA = 91.85, -7.98/9.70
• Jess Todd, Cardinals: FA = 88.00, -5.29/4.76, SL = 83.93, -1.95/0.95
• Jesus Delgago, Marlins: FA = 93.30, -4.99/7.35
• Kevin Pucetas, Giants: FA = 90.72, -12.46/9.39, CB = 73.95, 0.67/-6.78, CH = 80.68, -12.30/8.21
• Ryan Mattheus, Rockies: FA = 93.76, -9.29/6.81
• Shairon Martis, Nationals: FA = 91.58, -8.79/9.88, CB = 73.43, 0.18/-0.87, SL = 80.05, -1.95/-0.78
• Trevor Cahill, Athletics: FA = 91.43, -13.31/4.49, SL = 82.43, -3.87/0.66

Julio Pimentel (Royals) and William Inman (Padres) also pitched, but there wasn’t enough data captured by the system to offer anything regarding their repertoire, velocity, or movement relative to this game. What stands out to me upon first glance of these numbers is Kevin Pucetas’s movement and velocity on both his fastball and changeup. He was able to get close to 12.5 inches of horizontal movement on both pitches—Brandon Webb is averaging close to 8 horizontal inches this year—and the movement on both pitches was essentially the same. Put together, he was throwing virtually the same pitch albeit ten miles per hour slower with his changeup.

The lively fastballs of Henry Rodriguez and Casey Weathers caught my eye as well since they really separated themselves from the rest of the group in that department. The game looked like a good one and a shutout in an all-star game is pretty rare. Thoughts from those who were able to watch more than my one inning?

As we head into the all-star break, the pause gives us a chance to look at some players who have had a few months worth of performance that we just don’t think they can sustain – in short, they’re poised to regress to the mean, for one reason or another. For the second half of 2008, here’s the pitching staff for the All Regression Squad:

Justin Duchscherer: .216 BABIP, 4.5% HR/FB.

Duke’s first half is a good story, and he’s pitched very well at times, but there’s no way those two numbers are sustainable. He won’t implode, but he’s not going to keep his ERA under 2.00 all year.

Gavin Floyd: 3.69 ERA, 5.09 FIP.

Good luck keeping that BABIP at .226, and when it inevitably rises, so too will the curtain on what artificially appears to be Floyd’s breakout year.

Dana Eveland: 3.7% HR/FB rate.

I don’t care how big your home park is, that just can’t last. With his command problems, the depressed home run rate is really the driving force behind his success – when that goes, he’s going to be in trouble.

Jake Peavy: 83.7% LOB%.

Peavy is awesome, but he can’t keep stranding runners like this. No one can. He’s still going to be very good, but not quite this good.

Scott Olsen: 3.77 ERA, 5.00 FIP.

His velocity is gone, his strikeout rate is gone, his groundball rate is gone. It’s all smoke and mirrors at this point, and there’s just no way he keeps getting people out with the repertoire he’s currently throwing.

On May 25th, the San Francisco Giants stood at 20-31, a full 10.5 games behind the first place Diamondbacks. Brandon Webb and his DBacks were cruising and the division was theirs for the taking. The Dodgers had been slumping but appeared to be the only real threat to the Snakes. Arizona was 30-20; LA sat just 3.5 games back at 26-23; and the Rockies, Giants, and Padres respectively had played to the melancholy tunes of 20-30, 20-31, and 19-33.

Since that fateful day the Boche Bunch has gone 19-23, “improving” to 39-54. While a stretch like that may appear to have put the Giants further out of the playoff race they have actually gained three and a half games on Arizona. Yes, since May 25, the best team in the NL West has been the 19-23 Giants. The others? Well, the Padres have been second best, going 18-23 for a .439 winning percentage. After them comes a two-way tie between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have both gone 19-25. The worst team in this stretch is the Diamondbacks, at a measly 16-27.

With the DBacks starting off ten games above .500 and then proceeding to go eleven games below they now lead the division with a 46-47 record. Something remarkable to note is that, even though the non-Dodgers teams have played at a better clip in this span, while the DBacks played significantly worse, Arizona maintained their lead in the division. The Dodgers are currently one game back; the Giants and Rockies are seven and seven and a half back; and even the Padres are within ten games reach.

Okay, the title is a bit facetious given how poorly each team has played recently, but despite all five currently posting below .500 records, rewind back to the 1994 strike-shortened season and take a look at the AL West standings. At the time of the strike, the Rangers held a slim one game lead despite just a 52-62 record. The Athletics were 51-63, Mariners at 49-63, and the Angels at 47-68. Yes, this division has been bad so far, but not on the same embarrassing level as the 1994 AL West. I doubt it will stay like this for the remainder of the season but right now this division really does seem to be up for grabs. I’ve seen analysts say and write that it would just take a nice 5-8 game winning streak from a team to put the division away or make it a legitimate race; the way these teams are currently playing, “just” being able to do anything that positive seems completely out of character.

As the separation begins between contenders and pretenders, fans and organizations alike begin to look toward the upcoming off-season, planning for what the winter might bring and which free agents might be worth pursuing. This year, of course, the big names are C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Mark Teixeira, and it’s almost certain that they’ll command the three biggest paychecks when they sign.

However, there’s one free agent-to-be that generally doesn’t get included in the discussion of impact talents, but depending on how the bidding goes, could be the bargain of the winter. That player is Orlando Hudson.

Playing in the same league as Chase Utley and Dan Uggla has forced Hudson into a pretty large shadow, but that shouldn’t keep us from recognizing how valuable a player he is. His offensive production has been remarkably consistent since joining the D’Backs, as he’s posted seasonal OPS marks of .809, .817, and .822. The skillset has remained essentially unchaged, and at age 30, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline. With Hudson, you get a known quantity.

If we frame the conversation in terms of win values, we can break Hudson down as follows.

Offense: +0 to +5 runs above average hitter
Defense: +5 to +15 runs above average second baseman
Position Adjustment: +5 runs for playing second base

Add it all up, and you a player who is anywhere from 10 to 25 runs above an average major league player, depending on how good you think he is with the glove. Using the 10 runs per win formula, that makes Hudson worth +1 to +2.5 wins above average. Replacement level is about two wins below average, so Hudson’s somewhere between +3.0 and +4.5 wins above replacement.

Major league teams are paying almost $5 million per win on the free market, so using this analysis, we’d expect Hudson to sign for something between $15 million and $22.5 million per season. Now, when you think of Orlando Hudson’s impending free agency, are you thinking he’s going to get anywhere close to that? I’m guessing no.

Since he’s flown somewhat under the radar in Toronto and Arizona, he doesn’t possess the skills that teams usually overpay for in free agency, and the main point of his value is the thing that teams are worst at valuing, I’d expect Hudson to get a contract more along the lines of $11 to $14 million per season – my guess would be 5 years, $60-$65 million.

For Gary Matthews Jr money, you could acquire a guy who is arguably every bit as valuable as Teixeira. He might not be an ace or a middle-of-the-lineup slugger, but when it comes to guys who can add wins to a contending team in a hurry, Hudson might just be the guy to get this off-season.

The Chicago Cubs managed to acquire one of the top pitchers in the game (when healthy) in Rich Harden and also received sleeper Chad Gaudin in this week’s trade with the Oakland Athletics. Impressively, the Cubs organization did not part with any of its “top” prospects, including third baseman Josh Vitters and pitcher Jose Ceda.

Vitters began the season in April in Low A-ball but struggled and ended up on the disabled list. He resurfaced in June in the short-season Northwest League and has played exceptionally well, although most 2007 first round prep players are currently in full-season ball. He is currently hitting .329/.385/.512 in 82 at-bats with with two homers and 14 RBI. Vitters was drafted third overall in the 2007 draft out of high school.

Ceda was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004. The 21-year-old is currently pitching in Double-A after beginning the year in High-A ball. He was recently moved to the bullpen and has allowed nine hits and three walks (2.25 BB/9) in 12 innings. Ceda has struck out 18 (13.50 K/9). His fastball can tease triple digits and his slider is a strikeout pitch.

The club also did not part with a couple of fringe Top 10 organizational prospects in Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Colvin. Both players were highly drafted and handed handsome sums of money to sign with the Cubs, but neither player has put up eye-catching numbers in the minor league system. The organization still touts the players amongst its best, but the truth is that few other organizations feel the same way.

Samardzija was given a five-year, $10 million contract in 2006 as a fifth round pick to lure him away from playing pro football. The results on the mound have been mixed. His numbers have never matched his mid-90s fastball and, although he was recently promoted to Triple-A, his Double-A numbers were troubling. In 76 innings at the lower level, Samardzija allowed just 71 hits but he walked 42 (4.97 BB/9) and struck out just 44 (5.21 K/9). His rates have been slightly better in Triple-A but with only four starts it is a small sample size. Samardzija would probably be best suited to a bullpen role.

Colvin was the shock of the 2006 draft’s first round when the Cubs selected him 13th overall. The athletic outfielder has been hurt in his pro career by a base-on-balls phobia. He is currently playing in Double-A and hitting .241/.306/.384 in 352 at-bats. Colvin has seven homers and 46 RBI. He has walked more this season in the past with 32 (8.4 percent), to go along with 71 strikeouts (20.5 percent). Last season he managed to walk only about three percent of the time. Right now he projects as a fourth outfielder at best.

So while the Cubs managed to hold on to many of the organization’s top prospects, the future “stars” of the organization still have a lot of question that need answering before they can become the next Geovany Soto.