Archive for 2008

We’ve been looking at the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league system this week and have highlighted some interesting prospects, including top pitching prospects like Jess Todd and Adam Ottavino. As we all know, pitching is a highly-sought-after commodity in Major League Baseball and the St. Louis organization has its fair share of arms that have yet to make an appearance in the big leagues, including Clayton Mortensen and P.J. Walters.

Mortensen was the organization’s supplemental first round selection out of Gonzaga University in 2007. The sinker/slider pitcher has a low 90s fastball, but it’s his ability to keep the ball on the ground that really improves his prospect status. Prior to 2008, Mortensen had a ground-out-to-air-out ration higher than 3.00. So far this season he has a ratio of 2.08 over two minor league stops. He began the season in Double-A and allowed 59 hits in 59 innings with 22 walks and 48 strikeouts. Mortensen was promoted to Triple-A and has allowed 42 hits in 41 innings with 21 walks and 25 strikeouts. Despite his solid stuff, Mortensen’s numbers have just been OK this season, which might suggest a move to the bullpen is in his future, unless he can significantly improve his third pitch – a change-up (which might also help against left-handed batters who are collectively hitting .342 against him).

Walters also began his season in Double-A before a promotion to Triple-A. At Springfield, Walters allowed 35 hits in 36 innings with eight walks and 34 strikeouts. He also allowed five home runs. After a promotion to Memphis, Walters has allowed 81 hits in 72 innings with 31 walks and 70 strikeouts. Walters was originally an 11th round selection out of the University of South Alabama in 2006. The right-hander’s fastball sits around the mid- to high-80s but he features a trick pitch, which is a cross between a change-up and a screwball. His breaking ball is a below average pitch, which significantly clouds his future outlook as a starting pitcher. You cannot count Walters out, though, as he is succeeding in Triple-A in just his second full minor league season.

So, last night, the Phillies traded top prospect Adrian Cardenas, solid prospect Josh Outman, and long shot prospect Matthew Spencer to Oakland in return for Joe Blanton. Cardenas is the best second base prospect in the game and, in my view, Philadelphia’s best minor league talent, so in parting with him and the potentially useful Outman, the cost to acquire Blanton was fairly high. Is he going to push them over the top and help them hold off the Mets down the stretch?

Let’s take a look at Blanton’s skills in graph form.

His strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear – he has well above average command, pounding the strike zone but not missing bats. He’s a classic pitch-to-contact starter with a very slight groundball tendency, whose approach is to put the ball in play and let hitters get themselves out. There’s a lot of pitch to contact starters out there, but most of them haven’t experienced the same kind of run prevention success that Blanton has. The main reason can be best seen through the following chart:

Blanton’s allowed less than 1.0 HR/9 in each of the last three years, including a 0.63 HR/9 that ranked 11th lowest in baseball last year. The guys ahead of him were almost universally extreme groundball pitchers (except Chris Young, who pitches in Petco Park), which is intuitive – its hard to hit a groundball over the wall. But since Blanton isn’t really an extreme groundball guy, his home run prevention over the last few years is a bit surprising. In fact, his HR/FB rates are shockingly low.

2005: 9.6%
2006: 6.8%
2007: 6.5%
2008: 8.0%

Oakland Coliseum is a tough place to hit the ball out of the park, so part of these low rates are explainable as a park effect, but not to this extreme. Over the last two and a half years, Blanton has consistently beaten his projection for what we’d expect his HR/FB rate to be, even when we include the park factor into the equation.

If you think this is a sustainable skill, you’re probably pretty bullish on his ability to rebound to his 2007 form and return to above average starter status, especially with the move to the weaker NL. After all, his 4.11 FIP suggests that his 4.96 ERA is mostly bad luck, and Philly may have bought low on the 27-year-old.

However, there’s a pretty good mountain of evidence that shows that pitchers have little control over their HF/FB rate, and it varies significantly on a year to year basis. If you think (as I do) that Blanton’s low HR/FB rates the last couple of years were more of an outlier than a skill he’s going to take to Philadelphia with him, then you’re a bit more bearish on his future. In general, pitchers whose performance is built on a low HR/FB rate don’t have the same consistent success that pitchers who control the strike zone, and a move from Oakland to Philadelphia could exacerbate the regression in HR/FB rate that Blanton likely has coming.

For the price they paid, the Phillies should have gotten a borderline all-star, but from my perspective, Blanton’s more of a back-end innings eater who isn’t likely to perform in the future as well as he has in the past. This looks like the kind of trade the Phillies fans will be looking back on with frustration for years to come.

Just like last year, I’m making a post for the 2008 All-Star game that includes the Win Probability graph and stats since it’s about to go poof from the site.

The St. Louis Cardinals organization is already blessed with a talented backstop, but there is another talented catcher on his way to the big league club in the near future.

Yadier Molina, already in his fifth Major League season, is having a career year and just turned 26. He is currently hitting .312/.365/.399 with four homers in 276 at-bats. He has also walked 24 times with 14 strikeouts. Molina has improved for two years in a row, which helps to suggest that this is not a fluke season, as he heads into his playing prime. Defensively, there aren’t many, if any, catchers who offer his all-around skills behind the dish.

Molina’s current back-up is light-hitting veteran catcher Jason LaRue, who is having a ‘rejuvenated’ season at the age of 34 after hitting below .200 each of the last two years. LaRue, a free agent at the end of the season, is hitting .242/.339/.400 in just 95 at-bats. At Triple-A, minor league veteran Mark Johnson is a solid defensive catcher who could probably offer just about as much with the bat as LaRue and possibly more defensively.

Also at Triple-A is the Cardinals’ top catching prospect Bryan Anderson. The 21-year-old is still a little rough behind the plate (although he calls a great game) but you cannot argue with his offensive potential. He began the season at Double-A and hit .388/.412/.525 with two homers in 80 at-bats. Anderson was then promoted to Triple-A where he has hit .320/.396/.433 with one homer in 150 at-bats. He also has 18 walks and 23 strikeouts. He was originally selected in the fourth round out of high school in the 2005 amateur draft. Anderson’s lack of power is the only real smudge on his prospect status and he should be ready to apprentice with Molina as soon as the Cardinals decide to cut ties with LaRue.

How many times have you been watching a game or engaged in conversations with fellow fans in which the topic of velocity differential between pitches and its effects comes up? The idea in that tremendous offspeed pitches can enhance a fastball has somewhat grown into the conventional wisdom. It may seem odd at first, but throwing a devastating changeup can make an 89 mph fastball feel like a 93 mph fastball, perhaps even higher.

From a pure logic standpoint it makes sense. Consider this scenario: You are standing on the middle of the road and five cars are driving towards you, one at a time, at say 15 mph, from a great distance. But then the sixth car moves at around 30 mph. You aren’t very likely to know exactly how fast that sixth car is but it is going to seem much faster than its actual speed due to what had previously been experienced.

It was mentioned in the comments section of Dave’s article about Jamie Moyer that perhaps he has been able to strike hitters out or simply continue to get hitters out at his age, with a lack of tangible skills, due to his relative velocity; that is, the difference between the velocity of his fastball and his changeup confuses hitters and deems him a bit more effective than we might give him credit for.

Here are the top ten fastball-changeup dropoffs this year, using the BIS data, and their velocity dropoffs:

Mike Mussina, NYY: 15.8 mph
Vicente Padilla, Tex: 12.3 mph
Zack Greinke, KC: 11.9 mph
Johan Santana, NYM: 11.5 mph
Tim Lincecum, SF: 11.3 mph
Edinson Volquez, Cin: 11.0 mph
Oliver Perez, NYM: 11.0 mph
Javier Vazquez, CHW: 10.9 mph
Barry Zito, SF: 10.6 mph
Tim Hudson, Atl: 10.6 mph

And the bottom five:

Brian Bannister, KC: 4.3 mph
Derek Lowe, LAD: 5.1 mph
Greg Maddux, SD: 5.4 mph
Shaun Marcum, Tor: 5.7 mph
Josh Beckett, Bos: 5.8 mph

Of those in the top ten, the only two that throw below 90 mph, on average, are Mussina and Zito, who clock in around the 84-86 mark. Mussina has been in a relative velocity league of his own this year, throwing an 85.9 mph fastball and a 70.1 mph changeup. Now, pitchers don’t follow a uniform routine of changeup usage: some will throw it much more often than others. Mussina only throws his 6.9% of the time whereas Johan Santana has done so with 26.8% of his pitches.

Looking at pitchers who throw their changeup at least 10% of the time, Johan finds himself atop the relative dropoff leaderboard and new names like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb join him. The sample of players is likely too small from just one year to find any type of significance or trend within the data, and even then, a regression amongst others would need to be run as a starting point to find what type of effects this dropoff has, which I could perhaps get into in the near-future, but if this relative velocity really matters as much as our logic and commentators suspect, then it should be fairly easy to find a meaningful correlation between dropoff and some form of success.

Ever since Dennis Springer retired after the 2002 season, Tim Wakefield has stood as the game’s sole remaining knuckleball pitcher with a secure role in the major leagues. Charlie Haeger has bounced back and forth between the White Sox and their Triple-A affiliate in Chicago, but his inconsistency kept him from locking down a role in the windy city.

Don’t look now, but Wakefield may finally have someone to pass the torch too – R.A. Dickey spent the last few weeks leading up to the all-star break attempting to force the Mariners to keep him in their rotation. Of course, only in an organization as screwed up as Seattle’s would a guy with a 4.13 FIP in 61 innings of work be trying to cling to a role in the starting rotation for a team that is headed nowhere, but it looks like even the Mariners might not be able to screw this up.

The M’s selected Dickey in the Rule 5 draft last December, and then worked out a deal with Minnesota allowing them to option him back to Triple-A to start the season. He cleared waivers before the trade could be consummated, and right now, 29 teams have to be wondering what they were thinking.

Dickey’s transformation from a traditional pitcher to a knuckler is paying dividends, as he’s pitched quite well for the Mariners since he was called up. His 1.5 K/BB rate is pretty much in line with what established knuckleball pitchers run, as their success is derived more from their ability to cause weak contact, limiting their hits on balls in play. Dickey’s .301 BABIP may appear right at league average, but when you consider that the Mariners have had the league’s worst defense, that’s actually something of an accomplishment.

It’s too early to call Dickey the next Wakefield – and at 33, he’s not exactly a spring chicken – but he is showing some promise with the knuckleball, and is giving us a reason to hope that there will be another to carry on the art of the dancing pitch after Wakefield decides to hang it up.

I had something else planned for tonight, but in light of learning about Brad Lidge having to warmup on six different occasions over a two-hour span last night, my anger at this ridiculous game had to be expressed. First, a question: WHY does this game count? Why does this exhibition game, in which the rosters are not always indicative of the best players in each league, in which each team is required one representative meaning that other deserving players are excluded, in which players rarely last more than three or four innings, determine which league gets home field advantage in the World Series? Honestly? Can someone please answer this for me?

“Well, Cubs, you had a tremendous year, winning more than any other team in the whole sport, scoring more runs than everyone else as well, but you won’t have home field advantage in the World Series because your league failed to win the All-Star game.”

Say that a couple of times and let it sink in. I’m very confused why this game was made to be the determining factor of home field advantage in the World Series and doubly so why more stipulations were not made clear with regards to how managers must utilize players or how roster spots should be filled. The first basic point that needs to be fixed if this game is going to remain as “important” is that people who can actually play need to be selected. I don’t care how good Brandon Webb or Scott Kazmir have been this year: if they cannot pitch or just pitched a couple of days prior, they serve no purpose to the team. They are taking up a roster spot, risking injury and should not be participating.

Those actually capable of pitching should be selected, and for the sake of honoring those deserving, regardless of whether or not they can participate, why not just come out with some type of list, citing the best players of the first half, not necessarily intertwined with the game? That way a guy like Kazmir could be recognized for his first-half performance but not be subjected to what happened last night. Imagine if Corey Hart didn’t throw like a nine-year old girl, as Dave Cameron noted, and the game continued. Kazmir was on a strict pitch count and Francona would have no choice but to forfeit the game.

Or if Lidge could only go two innings last night, apparently David Wright was going to be his replacement. That would have been spectacular. The AL could have garnered home field advantage by hitting a home run off of a third baseman. And if Wright gets hurt pitching, I would have to imagine it would be mighty tough to justify his usage on the mound due to the game “counting,” to the thousands of Mets fans excited at the possibility of overtaking the Phillies in the NL East.

Either the game counts and the rosters should be populated by those capable of pitching, regardless of whether or not they are Jeff Suppan, Jamie Moyer, et al, or the game reverts to exhibition/fun nature and after a certain period of time, say 11-13 innings, it is called regardless of score. Pitchers should be required to go for at least one inning, with no platoon or LOOGY moves and, if the game “must be decided” as the commissioner’s office informed Francona, why take so many closers? Honestly, did the AL need anybody other than Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, or even Francisco Rodriguez? It could have been Zack Greinke, not Joakim Soria, and then Greinke could have gone a few innings.

It just really irks me that the sport I love could be so stupid and naive with a tradition such as this. If you want to have a competition between the leagues to determine home field advantage in the world series, why not make a balanced interleague schedule and whichever league wins gets the advantage. That way it’s more than just one meaningless game acting as the determining factor.

Overall, IF the game supposedly counts:

a) No more fan voting
b) No more requirements about representatives from each team
c) Pitchers who can actually pitch are selected
d) More starters than closers
e) Pitchers have to go at least one full inning

If it doesn’t count, do whatever you want. It’s a fun game, there should be no real rules other than to have fun. Or, what I would ultimately suggest, is that all of the aforementioned suggestions be disregarded and just let Tim Wakefield make the team every year, with the clause that he can pitch for both teams.

Top offensive prospect Colby Rasmus is having an off-season in Triple-A for the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The 21-year-old was selected in the first round (28th overall) of the 2005 draft out of a Georgia high school. He has moved swiftly through the system and hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 homers and 18 stolen bases in 472 Double-A at-bats last season. So far this season, and now at Triple-A Memphis, he is batting .249/.351/.401 with 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 309 at-bats. Interestingly, Rasmus – a left-handed batter – is hitting just .237 against right-handed pitchers and .277 against southpaws. On the positive side, Rasmus hit .333 in June after hitting .210 in April and .218 in May.

Although Rasmus is struggling, fellow outfield prospect Shane Robinson is improving his standing in the organization. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of Florida State University in the fifth round of the 2006 draft. He was slowed by an injury in 2007 at hit just .253/.321/.355 in 166 High-A at-bats. This year, though, Robinson was challenged with a promotion to Double-A and responded with a line of .352/.396/.496 with four homers and 13 RBI in 244 at-bats. He was promoted to Triple-A in June and has hit .265/.284/.349 with one homer and one stolen base. Robinson, who is only 5-9, likely projects as a fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues as a player who has limited power and patience at the plate. Defensively, he has a questionable arm for center field.

Jon Jay is another outfielder who has improved his prospect standing this season. Like Robinson, Jay was selected in the 2006 draft as a second round pick out of the University of Miami. He was also slowed by injuries in 2007 and hit just .265/.328/.387 in 230 at-bats at three levels. This season, at Double-A Springfield, Jay is batting .305/.375/.471 with 11 homers and nine stolen bases in 325 at-bats. The left-handed hitter is maintaining a solid average against southpaws (.277) and right-handers (.312). Jay has a slightly brighter future as a better defensive outfielder than Robinson.

With solid outfield depth at the Major League level already, the Cardinals could use any of the above players to help fill some of the other holes on the big league club before the trade deadline at the end of this month.

Dave showed us the other day a group of pitchers due to regress over the remainder of the season based on some quite unsustainable numbers. Here we are going to look at what should be expected of some hitters, projected to have good to great years, that struggled prior to the all star game festivities. As you saw last night I called upon the in-season Marcel to evaluate what Edgar Renteria’s second half and updated seasonal line would look like, and that same projection spreadsheet will be called upon right now.

The reason is that the pre-season projections are based on actual data representing the true talent level of a player. So, if someone expected to OPS .900 only posted a .700 in the first half, it does not mean he will continue to be in the .700 range all season. Based on what we know about the player we would expect him to have a better second half; however, his projection for this season would be updated to an OPS lower than the .900 thought to be accurate before the season.

I looked at the projections entering this season and found ten guys thought to be capable of posting an OPS higher than .820, who posted counts at least 70 points worse in the first half. The numbers below will follow the format: projected OPS, actual OPS to date, difference. There may be more than the following players fitting the aforementioned criteria but, for now, I decided to profile these ten:

Miguel Cabrera: .966, .837, -.129
Ryan Howard: .965, .832, -.133
Paul Konerko: .862, .687, -.175
Robinson Cano: .844, .643, -.201
Ryan Zimmerman: .826, .718, -.108
Ryan Garko: .826, .668, -.158
Todd Helton: .889, .783, -.106
Derek Jeter: .830, .740, -.090
Alexis Rios: .823, .737, -.086
Nick Swisher: .826, .754, -.072

By virtue of having high expectations and falling well short, these ten players are all expected to have better to much better second halves of the season. Here is their projected second-half OPS, followed by their updated seasonal count:

Miguel Cabrera: .936, .879
Ryan Howard: .932, .873
Paul Konerko: .825, .757
Robinson Cano: .797, .708
Ryan Zimmerman: .810, .771
Ryan Garko: .776, .716
Todd Helton: .854, .816
Derek Jeter: .804, .766
Alexis Rios: .798, .764
Nick Swisher: .808, .777

Of these ten players, the only one whose updated seasonal OPS would come within 50 points of his pre-season projection is Nick Swisher; his OPS was projected to be .826 and is updated to .777. Cano, Garko, and Konerko (is Konerko what you get if you combine the names Cano and Garko?) are all updated to have an OPS over 100 points lower than they were prior to the season. Cabrera, Howard, and Helton should all have very good second halves and they are the only three on this list whose updated seasonal OPS would clock in at over .800. All ten of these players should perform better than they did in the first half but they are also very likely to finish the season worse than we thought they would.

I love the “Last X Calendar Year(s)” option that David added to the leaderboards here, and so this morning, let’s take a stroll through the past 365 days and look at some performances that might surprise you.

Miguel Tejada: .278/.331/.440, 600 AB, 21 HR, 40 BB, 69 K
J.J. Hardy: .281/.332/.454, 570 AB, 21 HR, 44 BB, 70 K

The narrative of Hardy as an inconsistent youngster and Tejada as a slugging star can probably be put to rest.

Brian Roberts: 50 SB
Carl Crawford: 49 SB

I know Roberts is a good baserunner, but would you have guessed that he was fourth in baseball in stolen bases over the last year?

Ryan Howard: 153 RBI
Mark Teixeira: 133 RBI

These guys are #1 and #2 in baseball in runs batted in over the last year. Just a reminder that no one’s catching Hack Wilson. Speaking of Howard, he’s also struck out 231 times in that time frame. Yeesh.

Yuniesky Betancourt: 10 walks
Bengie Molina: 19 walks

Yuni has drawn half as many walks as the guy with the second fewest over the same time frame. Stop swinging you hack.

Ryan Braun: 7 triples
Ichiro Suzuki: 6 triples

That just made me laugh.