Archive for 2008

Depth is always a good thing. But it can also be frustrating. Such is the case with the Milwaukee Brewers and top offensive prospects Matt LaPorta and Mat Gamel. LaPorta is a first baseman (a DH, really) playing left field. Gamel is a left fielder playing third base.

Movin’ on Up (2008 Double-A stats):

Matt LaPorta  .290/.403/.584 | 19 HR | 63 RBI | 42 BB-60 K
Mat Gamel     .383/.445/.639 | 15 HR | 72 RBI | 38 BB-60 K

Holdin’ Down the Fort (2008 MLB stats):

Prince Fielder .272/.360/.487 | 16 HR | 43 RBI | 39 BB-61 K
Ryan Braun     .282/.317/.544 | 20 HR | 58 RBI | 16 BB-70 K
Bill Hall      .212/.275/.386 | 10 HR | 28 RBI | 18 BB-67 K

LaPorta was selected in the first round (seventh overall) of the 2007 draft out of the University of Florida as a senior, which surprised many because he was blocked at the Major League level by young, talented first baseman Prince Fielder. The Brewers immediately announced the organization’s intention to relocate LaPorta to the outfield. The move was met with skepticism given the lumbering man’s lack of athleticism but he has not embarrassed himself in the field (nor is he an average fielder, though) and he has torn the cover off the ball. In his pro career, he is hitting .300/.398/.643.

Gamel was snagged in the fourth round of the 2005 draft out of Chipola Junior College, ironically in the same draft that saw the club take Ryan Braun (originally a road block at third base, now in left field) fifth overall out of the University of Miami. Gamel was a pretty good value, costing the Brewers $2,224,000 less than Braun. He, like LaPorta, has done nothing but hit in the majors and currently sports a career line of .311/.381/.504. Gamel does not possess as much power as LaPorta, who could be a 40-homer guy, but the former juco player is a threat to hit .300, while LaPorta should be more around the .270-.280 area in the Major Leagues.

If both these players were in different organizations, they may very well have already made it to the major leagues. Bill Hall (.917 fielding percentage) certainly is not keeping Gamel or LaPorta in the minors, so it is clear Milwaukee does not see Gamel as the answer at third base. But neither player is going to move Braun out of left field. However, Fielder’s contract grumblings, offensive “struggles” and physique may make him expendable sooner rather than later. But even that solves only half of the problem.

Happy Canada Day to my fellow Canadians.

Prior to the season’s commencement, many analysts for whatever reason pegged the Tigers capable of scoring 1,000 runs this season. Whether these “projections” were born out of reality or more along the lines of superlatives to express how potent the offense could be, everyone expected them to succeed this season. Suffice it to say, on June 6th, when they sat at 24-36, twelve games under .500, and nowhere near the pace for 1,000 runs, bedlam worthy of Gotham City began to ensue in the minds of the Detroit faithful.

Since that day the Tigers have gone 18-4, improving their record to 42-40. While nothing spectacular it is still good enough for just five games out of first place. In lieu of their more extended recent winning ways I wanted to take a look at the major contributors. In terms of WPA, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson all rank in the top 25 over the last fourteen days, ranging from 0.42 to 0.54 wins. Substitute Cabrera for Clete Thomas, with the other three in tact, and the group of four also ranks in the context-neutral top 35 in this same span.

Since June 6, here are some of the numbers for their offensive components:

Marcus Thames: .313/.362/.813, 1.175 OPS, 10 HR in 64 AB
Curtis Granderson: .423/.458/.628, 1.086 OPS, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Placido Polanco: .427/.437/.537, .974 OPS
Clete Thomas: .450/.542/.650 in first career 24 PA
Miguel Cabrera: .306/.344/.482, .826 OPS, 6 2B, 3 HR
Gary Sheffield: .286/.310/.536, .846 OPS, 2 HR in 7 g returning from DL

The numbers of Cabrera and Sheffield may not seem as “special” relative to what was expected of them but the results since June 6 have been better than their overall numbers; for Sheffield, much better. What about the starting rotation? Jeremy Bonderman will miss the season but what are the other four main starters doing during this torrid stretch of play?

Armando Galarraga: 5 GS, 29.1 IP, 6 BB, 20 K, 2.76 ERA, 52 Game Score
Kenny Rogers: 5 GS, 33.1 IP, 9 BB, 10 K, 2.70 ERA, 54 Game Score
Justin Verlander: 5 GS, 33.0 IP, 14 BB, 34 K, 2.73 ERA, 61 Game Score
Nate Robertson: 4 GS, 24.2 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.92 ERA, 52 Game Score

These four, whose combined W-L in this span is 10-2, range from 2.70-2.92 in ERA and 52-61 in Game Score average. Add in Eddie Bonine’s two most recent outings and the Tigers staff seems to be clicking on all cylinders. This team is not going to score 1,000 runs, and they are not going to sustain an .818 winning percentage the rest of the season, but they are not as bad as they looked early on. They struggled out of the gate and underachieved, and are now overachieving to make up for it. I guess it’s true that, for an AL team, there isn’t anything better to cure some performance ailments than facing the teams on the senior circuit.

And, while the White Sox are still playing well, how many non-Detroit and non-Chicago fans are starting to think—despite being potentially afraid to admit it—that the Tigers, 24-36 on June 6, could realistically win this division?

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
40. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York, 10.06 WPA/LI
39. John Lackey, RHP, Anaheim, 7.48 WPA/LI
38. Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida, 4.01 WPA/LI
37. Edinson Volquez, RHP, Cincinnati, 1.18 WPA/LI
36. Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit, 4.14 WPA/LI

There wasn’t a harder player on this list to place than A-Rod. On talent, he’s still top ten, even at age 32. He’s one of the greatest players of all time, and he would be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he never played another day in his life. However, that contract he just signed with New York last winter – no other team in baseball even came calling when they had a shot to acquire him without giving up any talent, and at the price he’ll now command through 2017, there are a lot of teams that wouldn’t claim him even if he were placed on waivers. However, for those few teams that would be willing to take on that deal, he’s remarkably valuable, and we can’t overlook that he’s still among the league’s absolute best.

I talked about Lackey last week, and really, if he wasn’t a free agent after 2009, he’d rank quite a bit higher. He’s very good, very durable, and a bargain for the next year and a half. He’s going to get a huge paycheck whenever he signs his next extension, though, so his window as a significant financial asset is closing rapidly. Teams looking for an ace to make a run the next two years would pay a lot for Lackey, but his value is on the way down, and he almost certainly won’t be on this list next year.

Uggla probably swings the bat harder than anyone else alive, and he’s taken that grip-it-and-rip-it approach and turned it into the home run lead in the National League. The former Rule 5 pick has established that his power is for real, and since he makes just a bit more than nada, the Marlins are able to build a potent offense around players like him while keeping a shoestring payroll. However, for those who will argue that his ’08 performance means that he should be higher up on this list, Uggla comes with some deficiencies, especially on the defensive end. He’s bad enough with the glove that his real position is probably third base, and the bat is a little less special over there than it is at an up the middle spot. He’s also 28 – not the spring chicken that you might expect for a guy in his third league.

Barring a second half collapse, Volquez is going to run away with the breakthrough performance of 2008. No, he’s not this good, but his stuff has always been there and the performance is built on sustainable skills. He isn’t second in the league in strikeouts by accident – his combination of velocity and movement is good for generating swings and misses, and he’s getting a ton of ground balls even when hitters do make contact. The command is a real problem, and he’s going to have to throw more strikes, but if the Reds put him on the trade market right now, Walt Jocketty’s phone wouldn’t stop ringing.

Granderson busted through a year ago, posting a ridiculously awesome season to raise his status from good player to top notch center fielder. He’s not quite as good as he was last year, but as a good center fielder with legitimate power and speed, he’s a legitimate two way weapon for the Tigers. They were smart enough to lock him up long term for a piddly $30 million through his prime years, and will be reaping the rewards of his goodness through 2012 at least.

I know, I know: Hall of Fame discussions can be a bit tiresome these days. Still, something struck me a bit odd during a conversation with my father recently that merited further discussion amongst all the loyal readers and commenters here. Our conversation dealt with Todd Helton of the Colorado Rockies and whether or not his career accomplishments and accolades are “worthy” of inclusion into baseball’s hallowed hall. Essentially, I had contended that it would be very difficult for a Rockie to be inducted. For pitchers, the reasons should be a bit more obvious, but for hitters, they would have to have numbers great enough to transcend the initial, and likely true, belief that they benefited from playing in Coors Field.

Based on win probability statistics, Helton has been one of the, if not the, best first basemen in the National League since his Rookie of the Year-winning 1998 campaign. From 2000-2004 he contributed 26.88 WPA wins, 30.51 context-neutral wins, and averaged 69.78 BRAA per season. Other than his 2002 WPA, which ranked 5th, he finished #1 or #2 amongst NL first basemen in each of these categories, each year.

Since his career began in 1998, and amongst those with at least 1,000 games in that span, Helton’s .332 BA ranks second to only Ichiro Suzuki; his .432 OBP ranks second to none other than Barry Bonds; and his 1.017 OPS ranks fourth to Bonds, Albert Pujols, and Manny Ramirez.

The Hall of Fame tests created by Bill James may be a bit outdated in not accounting for park factors and such but still do a good job of stacking up current numbers against Cooperstown equivalencies and/or averages. Based on these it would seem Helton is a borderline case:

Black Ink: Helton=16, Average=27
Gray Ink: Helton=141, Average=144
HOF Standards: Helton=50, Average=50
HOF Monitor: Helton=154, Average > 100

He vastly exceeds the monitor, which serves to award points based on milestones and numbers accrued, but currently falls short in the ink tests; Black Ink measures how often a player leads the league while Gray looks at those who finish amongst the top performers. What hurts Helton from a statistical standpoint is that he looks to be borderline based on the aforementioned tests yet his career home/road splits confirm the theories of Coors dissenters:

Home: 3617 PA, .363/.461/.653, 1.114 OPS, 190 HR, 341 K
Road: 3488 PA, .294/.394/.494, .888 OPS, 120 HR, 467 K

Now, his road numbers are still quite good, and are well above average, but they definitely pale in comparison to the Ruthian efforts at home. Ultimately, though, I’ll pose the following questions:

a) When all is said and done will Helton be inducted? (Keep in mind “will” does not necessarily mean “deserve”)
b) What would it take for a Rockies hitter to be inducted? Equally impressive home/road splits?

Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
45. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees, 0.14 WPA/LI
44. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston, 1.10 WPA/LI
43. Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto, 1.59 WPA/LI
42. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta, 10.59 WPA/LI
41. Jake Peavy, RHP, San Diego, 4.91 WPA/LI

Cano’s disastrous 2008 season has hurt his stock, no doubt, but we can’t place too much emphasis on three months of results. He’s a 25 year old second baseman with established offensive skills who has hit a rough stretch, but this isn’t his true talent level. He’s also signed to a below market contract that makes him a bargain for the next four years. He will rebound from his poor start and again take his place as one of the more valuable second baseman in the game.

Ellsbury was tough to slot because opinions about his abilities are so diverse. Boston is obviously in love with his defensive abilities and his willingness to get on base, but the lack of power is a real concern, and I don’t see the star potential in him that other players on this list have. His realistic best case scenario is a quality contributor but certainly not a franchise player. However, because of his current skill level as a premium defender with a bat that can play in the majors, he’s got enough current value that his contract status makes him a huge bargain. League average up-the-middle players command a fortune, so paying Ellsbury $400,000 to provide that value is enough to make Ellsbury a significant asset.

McGowan is in the absolute upper tier of stuff among major league starters, throwing a 95 MPH fastball and an 88 MPH slider that are both legitimate knockout punches. However, he simply hasn’t reached the level of performance that his talent would indicate is possible, and his decline in strikeout and groundball rates from 2007 without any improvement in command has to be a concern. Because he’s still dirt cheap and a high quality arm, he would be a coveted player in the trade market, but he’s going to have to improve soon to avoid becoming the new Javier Vazquez.

Chipper forced himself onto the list with his absurd performance the last few years, proving that he is still one of the better hitters alive even at age 36. The production is so valuable, however, that the market for Chipper would still be quite robust if the Braves ever lost their minds and decided to trade him. Even with only a few more good years ahead of him, the current value is so high, and his contract more than reasonable, that teams would be lining up to acquire the Hall of Fame third baseman.

On talent, Peavy is much higher than this. However, the new contract extension he signed that keeps him in San Diego will cost $52 million over the 2010-2012 seasons, and Peavy isn’t exactly a low-risk starting pitcher. There aren’t many tea s out there that could afford the risk of having a $17 million pitcher with his history of injury problems on the books, and while he’s a really good pitcher, he wouldn’t be as good anywhere else as he is in Petco and the NL West. Like Johan, the contract pushes him much further down the list than he would otherwise be.

Brad Nelson has seemingly been around forever. The former fourth round pick out of an Iowa high school in 2001 was considered a better prospect at one time than current Brewer Corey Hart, who was also drafted out of high school but a year earlier.

However, things changed and Hart has played parts of five seasons in the majors and secured a regular gig last year after hitting .295/.353/.539 with 24 homers in 505 at-bats. Nelson, on the other hand, has yet to have a Major League at-bat and he has spent parts of four seasons in Double-A and parts of four seasons in Triple-A.

Things may be looking up for Nelson, though. Still young at only 25, the left-handed batter, who can play first base and the corner outfield, is currently hitting .304/.417/.507 with 12 homers and 19 doubles in 280 at-bats. The most encouraging numbers are the 55 walks (16.7 percent walk rate) and 49 strikeouts (17.5 percent). Nelson walked a total of 31 times in 2007 (seven percent) during the span of 411 Triple-A at-bats. Nelson has shown good strike zone judgment in the past, as recently as 2006, when he walked 63 times (19.2 percent), albeit with 62 strikeouts (23.4 percent) in 265 Double-A at-bats.

Nelson is likely headed for a career off the bench as he does not hit lefties overly well. This season he is hitting .240/.374/.400 against southpaws and .327/.433/.546 against right-handers. Even so, if his 2008 numbers are for real, he could put together a nice career, perhaps in the mold of Mark Sweeney, most recently of the Dodgers. The biggest question that remains is how well he will hit while receiving sporadic playing time at the Major League level.

Following a recent sweep by the Cubs at Wrigley Field, the White Sox last night got revenge by completing a sweep of their fellow Chicagoans on their own South Side turf. The 5-1 win gave the White Sox a 46-35 record and kept them in first place by 1.5 games over the Minnesota Twins. One of the key ingredients to their success this year has been the bullpen. Joe Morgan discussed how valuable they have been this year and the numbers back it up.

The White Sox bullpen currently has an MLB-best 2.61 ERA and has done so in 213.2 innings, a number lower than everyone except the Anaheim Los Angeles Californian Angels of Los Anaheim. The relief corps has not been called upon an exorbitant amount of time thanks in large part to the White Sox starting staff and their league leading 50 quality starts. That means in 62% of their games so far the bullpen hasn’t even gotten to rear its head until the seventh inning or later.

Overall, the White Sox have an MLB best 3.39 team ERA, and have walked just 227 batters—2.8 per game—which ranks second only to the Twins and their 198 free passes. Here are the five major components of the White Sox bullpen and their numbers:

Bobby Jenks: 32 G, 32.1 IP, 7 BB, 19 K, 1.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Scott Linebrink: 36 G, 33.0 IP, 6 BB, 29 K, 1.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
Matt Thornton: 33 G, 31.1 IP, 9 BB, 40 K, 2.30 ERA, 0.80 WHIP
Boone Logan: 33 G, 28.1 IP, 6 BB, 29 K, 2.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Octavio Dotel: 37 G, 36.2 IP, 19 BB, 53 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

The games played numbers speak volumes toward the lack of overusage or abuse. In fact, you won’t find any White Sox relievers in the league leaders here on Fangraphs until you venture to the second page of players. Looking at all relievers with at least 20 IP—in order to get rid of those who wouldn’t qualify for relief rankings—the ChiSox have four in the top 35 in WHIP as well as three with K/BB ratios above 4.40; the other two chime in at a very respectable 2.79 and 2.71.

One aspect of bullpens I enjoy investigating involves how they were put together. With this team:

1. Bobby Jenks: selected off Waivers from Angels on 12/17/04
2. Scott Linebrink: signed 4 yr/19 mil deal this offseason
3. Matt Thornton: traded from Seattle for Joe Borchard on 3/20/06
4. Boone Logan: drafted 20th rd in 2002
5. Octavio Dotel: signed 2 yr/11 mil deal this offseason

Querying and exporting all relievers with 20+ innings allowed me to find some current averages. The average LOB rate for such relievers is 76.80%. Of the five White Sox discussed here, all but Dotel’s 71.7% come in at 78.5% or higher; Linebrink even sits at 92.1%.

In terms of WPA, the average for relievers with 20+ innings is 0.375. So, if we were to build a bullpen consisting of five “average” relievers (with 20+ IP), their WPA would amount to 1.88. Additionally, the average WPA/LI for this parameter is 0.282; five average pitchers with regards to this WPA/LI would combine for 1.41 context-neutral wins. The White Sox five currently have a 4.08 WPA and 3.48 WPA/LI, meaning they are 2.2 WPA wins above an average bullpen and 2.1 context-neutral wins above an average bullpen.

They have allowed the fourth least amount of total bases and have the second lowest OPS against at .687—only Oakland’s .661 ranks higher. Their bullpen may not sustain performance like this all season, but South Side fans should hope they do, considering their relievers have contributed the most win probability success to the team.

One of the annual pieces I’ve been writing for USSMariner.com the last few years is a baseball takeoff of Bill Simmons’ Trade Value column. Essentially, the concept is to put together a ranking of the most valuable individual assets in the game – this is, pretty much across the board, a different discussion than who the best players in the game are. Age, contract status, and salary all come into play, as they do in real life.

In most cases, our evaluations of value are a lot different than what GMs find when they engage in trade negotiations. Johan Santana is obviously one of the best pitchers on the planet, but as the Twins found out when they put him on the market last winter, the list of inferior players that they couldn’t trade Johan for was very, very long. That was because he was a year away from free agency and a large paycheck, which significantly devalued him on the trade market, even though he’s still a terrific talent.

So, this list is my attempt to figure out what players have the most value in the league. Essentially, the best way to look at a player’s placement on this list is “would you trade him, straight up, for any of the guys listed ahead of him?” I’ve asked that question about every player on this list, and done so from what I would perceive the perspective of both current organizations would be. Over this coming week, I will lay out my view of the 50 most valuable assets in Major League Baseball.

This morning, we start at #50 and work our way up five spots to #46.

Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
50. James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles – 2.55 WPA/LI
49. Carlos Zambrano, RHP, Chicago Cubs – 4.63 WPA/LI
48. Johan Santana, LHP, New York Mets – 8.24 WPA/LI
47. Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston – 0.51 WPA/LI
46. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington – 1.20 WPA/LI

There’s a nice group of good, young, cheap first baseman with solid all-around games, but Loney is the the one I’m hanging my hat on here, with apologies to Casey Kotchman, Joey Votto, and Conor Jackson. If he grows from gap power to legitimate long ball hitter, he’ll be a perennial all-star.

Zambrano is a horse who has thrown 200 innings a year since 2003 and has never posted an ERA over 4.00. He’s been hugely valuable to the Cubs and is signed to a below market contract for a front line pitcher. However, his strikeout rates and velocity are tumbling, and you have to wonder if decline is on the way. You’d love to have Zambrano on your team, but the risk is real.

Santana is one of the easier players to place on this list because he was just traded in a very public negotiation war between several of the highest payroll clubs in baseball. What we found out is that, while everyone wants Johan, no one is willing to give up even one of their best young players to get him. Boston’s list of untouchables was longer than the Magna Carta, and the Yankees repeatedly put together offers that excluded the pitching prospects that everyone else actually liked. Johan’s great, there’s no doubt, but he’s also expensive and slightly less great than he used to be.

After tossing a no-hitter in his second career major league start, Buchholz is one of the kids that Boston put on their off-limits list. The talent is real, but the polish just isn’t there yet, and he has found himself back in Triple-A refining his game. With some improved command, Buchholz has the potential to be the one thing every team covets – a starting pitcher with knockout stuff that makes the league minimum.

Zimmerman could be a top ten player on this list, honestly, as his all around package of skills project extremely well for the future. An elite defensive player with a real bat, Zimmerman just hasn’t performed as well as we would have hoped given his quick success in the majors. He turns 24 in September, and while the potential is still Hall-of-Fame caliber, the current value just isn’t there for a club to give up an elite talent for Zimmerman right now.

This past week proved to be quite the eventful one in major league baseball. The AL continued its domination of the senior circuit, the Tigers climbed back to .500, the Diamondbacks continued to fall toward .500, C.C. Sabathia dropped his ERA to 3.78 while taking the league lead with 118 strikeouts, and then there were the two events or oddities I will profile here: the Dodgers were no-hit and won, and the Twins faced four former Cy Young Award winners in five days.

First, the Twins: From 6/20 to 6/25 they played and won five contests in their nine-game winning streak, beating Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, and Greg Maddux. Now, they did not beat all four of these pitchers, specifically, as Trevor Hoffman lost Peavy’s game; still, this made me wonder if something similar has ever happened before. Facing four Cy Young Award winners in five games would require two or more award winners to be on the same team as well as the schedule to pan out to one of the following:

a) 3 on one team, 1 on the team played after that series, faced consecutively
b) 2 on one team, 2 on the next team, comprising the final and first games of different series
c) 1 award winner in the final game of a series, 2 in a two-game series, and 1 to start the next

My first thought was that the Braves might factor in here as, from 1997-2002, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine had all at least won one award. If the three of them pitched in a series and the opposing team then faced, say, Randy Johnson in their next game it would work. Unfortunately, I don’t have anything coded for this; if anyone out there does, please let us know if this has ever happened before.

Secondly, the Dodgers beat the Angels last night, 1-0, yet did not record one hit. Their lone run came on two errors and a sac fly in the fifth inning. Jered Weaver and Jose Arredondo combined to surrender no hits—it isn’t officially labeled a no-hitter by major league baseball since the Dodgers only batted eight times.

Though reported that this was the fifth time since 1900 in which a team won while failing to record a hit, the other four all appear to have taken place from 1956 until now. Here are the other four:

1) 4/23/1964, Reds 1-0 Colt .45’s, no-hit by Ken Johnson
2) 4/30/1967, Tigers 2-1 Orioles, 8.2 hitless from Steve Barber
3) 7/1/1990, White Sox 4-0 Yankees, 8.0 hitless from Andy Hawkins
4) 4/12/1992, Indians 2-1 Red Sox, 8.0 hitless from Matt Young

Only in a game like baseball can a pitcher allow no hits to his opposition, while pitching a complete game, yet lose the game and additionally fail to get his efforts recognized as a no-hitter. Such a crazy week in an unpredictable sport topped off with just the fifth hitless win in history.

There are a lot of things from Moneyball that have stuck around in the baseball lexicon since the book was published, but perhaps no phrase is more synonymous with a player from the book than the nickname given to Kevin Youkils – The Greek God of Walks. Youkilis, of course, was described as such because of his proclivity for the base on balls during college, and it was his on base skills that got him drafted in the 8th round of the 2001 draft despite his underwhelming physical abilities.

Not surprisingly, Youkilis has continued to live up to the nickname as a professional. Here are his BB% since joining the Red Sox in 2004 up through 2007:

2004: 13.7%
2005: 15.1%
2006: 13.8%
2007: 12.7%

So, it wasn’t any real surprise when Youkilis started the 2008 season in typical fashion. In his first 33 games, up through May 6th, Youkilis drew 20 walks in 145 trips to the plate, and his 16.5% BB% put him on pace for the highest walk total of his career. Since most players see their walk rates increase as they age, it seemed normal that Youkilis was laying the foundation for yet another 100 walk season.

But baseball is nothing if not unpredictable, and Youkilis’ performance since that day just reaffirms that belief. From May 7th to June 1st, Youkilis didn’t draw a single base on balls, going 87 plate appearances without a walk. From that day until now, Youkilis has drawn just 7 walks in 162 plate appearances. For comparison, his 4.9% BB% during these last 40 games is equal to Jose Guillen’s career walk rate, and Guillen isn’t exactly known as a patient hitter.

In fact, let’s illustrate the change in Youkilis’ approach graphically.

Youkilis has essentially traded patience for power, going from an above average BB%/average ISO to the exact opposite this year. The crash in his BB% is almost exactly proportionate to the increase in his power output. Coincidence? Probably not.

Hitting results often function as a sliding scale – if you move one thing, something else moves with it. In this case, it appears that Youkilis has decided to swing a bit more often of late, and the result is that he’s driving the ball with more authority. If this continues, we may need a new nickname for Youkilis – I got dibs on The Greek God Of Swinging From His Heels.