Archive for 2008

The Texas Rangers offense is pretty scary. Led by huge seasons from Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton, they score 5.46 runs per game, and are a nightmare for opposing pitchers. However, throughout the 2008 season, there’s been one place they haven’t been able to generate any offense; first base, a position where its usually very easy to find a hitter.

In fact, their first baseman had hit just .225/.309/.339 as a group. From Ben Broussard to Chris Shelton, they simply haven’t been able to find a hitter who could provide legitimate offense, and so now their search has taken them to Chris Davis, newly promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma.

If there is one thing we know about Davis, it’s that he can hit the baseball a long way. Between Bakersfield and Frisco last season, playing at age 21, he hit 36 home runs in 496 at-bats, establishing himself as the premier offensive prospect in the Texas system. In 297 at-bats at Frisco and Oklahoma before being called up to the big show, Davis had launched 23 home runs. He slugged .685 in the PCL, and even though its a hitter friendly league, you can only regress a .685 slugging percentage for a 22-year-old so far.

Davis has serious power, but unlike a lot of left-handed sluggers, he’s not a guy with old player skills who works the count and draws a lot of walks. Davis, who played third base up through last season, is a very aggressive hitter who is willing to expand his zone in order to try to drive the ball over the wall. Since 2006, he’s drawn just 86 walks in 1,042 trips to the plate, although he has gotten progressively more willing to draw a walk as he’s moved up the ladder.

Talking with one scout, Davis was compared to some kind of hybird of Ryan Braun and Mike Jacobs – not as much raw power as Braun, but a better hitter than Jacobs. Interestingly, both Braun and Jacobs tore the cover off the ball upon reaching the majors, so Texas is certainly hoping that history repeats itself. If Davis can put together the .280/.330/.500 line he’s certainly capable of, it will be a big boost to an already potent offense.

Much of my work this week has focused on the ‘Clutch’ statistic kept here, attempting to shed light or help the confusion surrounding its meaning and usage to dissipate. A great discussion took place in the comments section at my post ‘All About Clutch’ wherein it was suggested that the best hitters in the league will struggle to post high clutch scores because, essentially, they would be so high up the performance chart that there would be no higher ground to which their games could be raised. The inverse would then be true for poorer hitters; since their games were so low much more room exists for game-raising performance.

The major confusion stemmed from the fact that a player with a .333 BA in situations with a high leverage index could be less clutch than one with a .225 BA in the same situations. The way the clutch statistic works is that it measures a player against himself, comparing production to what that production would be in a context-neutral environment. Clearly, I would rather have the .333 guy up to bat in a crucial situation and, because of that, heads begin to spin when it is realized that the .225 guy could have a higher clutch score because in all others he hit .200; the .333 guy posted the same BA in all situations, therefore failing to raise his game.

With this in mind I decided to do a little digging in order to see if this generally holds true. I took the qualifying major league players from 2000-2007, first found the average WPA/LI, and then calculated the average clutch score for those with above average WPA/LI as well as the average clutch score for those with below average WPA/LI. Keep in mind that, in the results below, BA refers to the average clutch for below average WPA/LI with AA meaning the same for above average:

2000: 1.15 WPA/LI, -0.10 BA, 0.07 AA
2001: 1.39 WPA/LI, 0.05 BA, -0.10 AA
2002: 1.38 WPA/LI, -0.02 BA, -0.19 AA
2003: 1.15 WPA/LI, 0.03 BA, -0.32 AA
2004: 1.20 WPA/LI, -0.06 BA, -0.25 AA
2005: 1.15 WPA/LI, 0.01 BA, -0.27 AA
2006: 1.07 WPA/LI, 0.22 BA, -0.13 AA
2007: 0.98 WPA/LI, 0.03 BA, -0.14 AA

As you can see, other than in 2000 and 2007, the average clutch score for those with below average WPA/LI was much better than their above average colleagues. Not to say that their clutch scores were earth-shatteringly spectacular, but, rather just much higher and more indicative of game-raising performance. Deciding to go a little deeper, I looked at the top and bottom 10% in each year to see if the results differed:

2000: 0.06 BA, -0.25 AA
2001: 0.03 BA, -0.54 AA
2002: 0.05 BA, -0.87 AA
2003: 0.02 BA, -0.39 AA
2004: -0.20 BA, -0.11 AA
2005: -0.01 BA, -0.46 AA
2006: 0.16 BA, 0.21 AA
2007: 0.34 BA, -0.27 AA

Here we get very similar results; those in the bottom 10% of WPA/LI generally post much higher clutch scores than those at the top. 2004 and 2006 are the exceptions to this “rule” but even they do not differ too heavily; they actually come within ten points of each other whereas every other year is vastly different in the average clutch scores.

Based on these results it would seem that, yes, the players with below average performance are more likely to post higher clutch scores because they have more room to work with, so to speak. I would still rather take, with much confidence, those in the top 10% of WPA/LI in crucial situations, even though the clutch statistic, in its current state, will debit their performance for having nowhere to go really but down.

Now, to clarify the above paragraph, after some tests, there is no correlation between WPA/LI and Clutch, meaning that it is not a concrete rule that all good players will post lower clutch scores and vice versa. From these results, though, it does seem that those with a higher WPA/LI have more opportunity to post lower clutch scores.

The Minnesota Twins have determined that interleague play is their friend, catching fire while beating up on NL opponents en route to a nine game winning streak. With this surge, they now find themselves a half game behind the White Sox for first place in the A.L. Central, and with the Indians and Tigers continuing to disappoint, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Twins could find themselves fighting for a playoff spot down the stretch.

Which, when you look at their offense, is really quite amazing. Joe Mauer (1.24 WPA/LI) and Justin Morneau (0.72 WPA/LI) are doing their jobs, but as a group, the rest of the position players are just amazingly bad. Look at the following five players who are playing practically everyday for the Twins:

Carlos Gomez, CF: .272/.302/.376, -0.85 WPA/LI
Delmon Young, LF: .275/.326/.366, -1.31 WPA/LI
Mike Lamb, 3B: .222/.260/.299, -1.06 WPA/LI
Brendan Harris, SS/2B: .250/.310/.359, -0.40 WPA/LI
Michael Cuddyer, RF: .254/.323/.382, -0.17 WPA/LI

Five of their nine regulars are below average hitters, including their entire outfield and the left side of their infield. It’s not like Harris and Lamb make up for it with stellar glove work, either. Gomez can be somewhat excused because he plays a legit center field, so his production isn’t that bad relative to his peers, and Young/Cuddyer probably aren’t in any danger of losing their jobs because of their name values. But Minnesota can’t stand pat with this offense and hope they score enough runs, because this nine is not a playoff caliber offense.

Realistically, the Twins should be in the market for a third baseman or a shortstop, and maybe both, if they want to capitalize on this hot streak and make a playoff run in 2008. They simply can’t continue to get this level of non-production from so many hitters and keep winning games. Smoke eventually clears and mirrors crack.

The new “Past Calendar Year” addition to the leaderboards is tremendous. If you haven’t played around with it yet, what are you waiting for?

Here’s my fun revelation of the day. In the last year, here are the league leaders in strikeout totals for hitters.

1. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia – 236 strikeouts in 623 at-bats, 37.7% K%
2. Jack Cust, Oakland – 192 strikeouts in 490 at-bats, 39.2% K%
3. Mark Reynolds, Arizona -192 strikeouts in 509 at-bats, 37.7% K%

After those three, the dropoff in strikeout rate is huge. Mike Cameron is #4 with a 32.6% K%, not even in the same ballpark as Howard, Cust, and Reynolds. But how many people really think of the Arizona third baseman as a Cust/Howard level swing-and-miss machine? I certainly didn’t, at least until looking at this leaderboard.

It wasn’t exactly easy to see this coming either. During his 1216 minor league at-bats in 2004 to 2007, Reynolds posted a 24% K%. With guys who have huge holes in their swings, such as Cust and Branyan, we knew they were strikeout monsters even before they got to the big show. But Reynolds – he didn’t start racking up the Ks until he got to Arizona.

Unlike with Cust, who racks up the strikeouts because he just never swings (34% Swing%, which is just hilarious) and gets deep in counts, Reynolds has legitimate problems making contact. His 63.78% contact rate is the worst in the majors, with only Howard’s 64.35% even within shouting distance.

Because he’s able to drive the ball consistently, he’s still a productive hitter even with the contact issues, but it’s something that Arizona’s coaching staff should be working with him on. It’s very hard to have a sustained career with that kind of low rate of contact, and Reynolds doesn’t draw walks like Cust or Howard to offset some of the strikeouts. If he continues to swing and miss at this rate, it won’t be too long before he’s hitting .210 or .220 due to BABIP variations and, at that point, his job will be in jeopardy.

A team would be pretty happy with a draft if it netted one future Major League All-Star or a couple Major League contributors. The 2004 Tampa Bay amateur draft has already produced four top prospects, one Major League starting pitcher and a few other spare parts that have the potential to see a little time on the Major League roster. What is even more impressive about the Rays’ draft is that the organization secured numerous top prospects without the aid of supplemental selections.

Despite average stuff, pitcher Andy Sonnanstine has had the best value of the 2004 drafted. Taken in the 14th round out of Kent State University, the right-hander is currently a member of the Rays’ starting rotation and has won 14 games over the past two seasons. This year he is 8-3 with a 4.85 ERA in 16 starts. He has allowed 117 hits in 94.2 innings, along with 18 walks and 63 strike outs.

I have already written about Jacob McGee (fifth round) and Wade Davis (third round) this week and they, along with first round pick Jeff Niemann, were the jewels of this draft. Niemann was slowed by injuries but he finally made his long-awaited Major League debut in 2008. Second round pick Reid Brignac, a shortstop, is also one of the Rays’ top prospects and currently playing at Triple-A where he is hitting .270/.320/.453.

Right-hander Matt Walker’s results have never matched his stuff, mainly due to poor control. The 10th round pick out of a Louisiana high school has walked 5.83 batters per nine innings in his career.

Sixth round selection Ryan Royster, 21, is only hitting .235/.285/.304 this season in High-A ball, but the outfielder broke out in 2007 with 30 homers and a .329 average in Low-A ball. Fernando Perez, another second tier outfield prospect, was drafted out of Columbia University in the seventh round. He is currently in Triple-A and is hitting .276/.361/.394. Both players could see time at the Major League level, although neither is likely to be a regular.

In case you have not heard yet, Astros pitcher Shawn Chacon and general manager Ed Wade found themselves entangled in a verbal-turned-physical altercation yesterday. The incident, which took place prior to the game, stemmed from some combination of Chacon’s play, the manager’s office, and dinner. For a recap of the actual event, watch the video below:

Now, Chacon mentioned that he hopes this does not prevent him from pitching in the major leagues again, yet I’m wondering why he is pitching in the major leagues right now. Here’s a comparison between his Marcel for this year and his actual numbers:

Marcel: 1.44 K/BB, .266 BAA, 1.50 WHIP, 73.7% LOB, 4.69 ERA, E-F of -0.41
Actual: 1.29 K/BB, .267 BAA, 1.51 WHIP, 72.7% LOB, 5.04 ERA, E-F of -0.64

Marcel did a pretty darn good job of showing where his numbers would hover around and they really are not that good. His LOB rate is right around league average meaning he has not really been unlucky at all or due to regress. His K/BB is 3rd worst in the NL; his HR/9 is 5th worst; his FIP is 3rd worst; and his BB/9 is 7th worst.

Using the ‘last 3 calendar years’ parameter and setting the qualifying cutoff at those with 180+ IP in that span, here are Chacon’s ranks amongst all pitchers–SP and RP–since he was a reliever last year:

K/9 – 185 of 263
BRAA – 188 of 263
HR/9 – 209 of 263
WHIP – 218 of 263
WPA/LI – 227 of 263
BB/9 – 241 of 263
FIP – 253 of 263

Based on his controllable skills just ten pitchers given the chance to pitch as often, if not more, have been worse, and yet it took a physical altercation with his GM to get him off the mound? Perhaps I’m being too harsh, but regardless of his “good start,” I would have very little, if not no, confidence with him in my starting rotation. Maybe the Astros can use this as an excuse to get rid of a low-risk signing that does not appear to offer even medium reward.

The ace of the Angels rotation, John Lackey, spent the first eight weeks of the season on the shelf recovering from a strained tricep muscle. Often times, when a pitcher opts for rest, the results when they return aren’t what they, or their teams’ fans, would hope for. Velocity drops and a loss of movement aren’t uncommon, and teams have learned that it’s not generally a great idea to count on getting premium production from a pitcher just coming off the disabled list.

Lackey, however, is bucking that trend in a big way. Since coming off the DL on May 14th, he’s been the model of consistency. Here are some of the relevant markers from 2007 and 2008.

Fastball Velocity: 2007, 90.9 MPH – 2008, 90.6 MPH
Groundball Percentage: 2007, 44.7% – 2008, 44.9%
FIP: 2007, 3.54 – 2008, 3.43

In each of his eight starts since coming off the disabled list, Lackey’s pitched a minimum of seven innings. He’s given up just one earned run in six of those starts. His game scores have ranged from a low of 60 to a high of 70. He’s posted a positive WPA in all of his appearances, and a WPA of .30 or higher in three of those eight starts.

The recovering-from-injury John Lackey is indistinguishable from the completely healthy version, and his success is one of the reason the Angels are putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the A.L. West. Consistency has always been his calling card, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that even something like an arm injury can’t slow him down.

While writing and researching this post it is still hard to believe, for this baseball fan at least, that the Tampa Bay Rays are currently 45-31, a full fourteen games over .500. Not to say I didn’t expect them to be good but their turnaround has been remarkable and very fun to keep tabs on. In looking over some of their statistics I came across this interesting little nugget: Andy Sonnanstine leads the AL in E-F, at 1.53.

E-F, or ERA-FIP as you may have seen at The Hardball Times, does just what the title suggests: it subtracts the FIP from the ERA in order to see which pitchers have been lucky or unlucky with regards to their earned run barometer and controllable skills measure. Sonnanstine has a 4.85 ERA yet a 3.32 FIP. That FIP ranks 8th best in the league and the only other E-Fs higher, in all of baseball, belong to Bronson Arroyo and Ian Snell; their ERAs are 6+ right now.

Adding to my interest level are Sonnanstine’s numbers last year: a 5.85 ERA and a 4.26 FIP, resulting in a 1.59 E-F. So, two years running now Andy has posted an ERA over 1.5 runs worse than his controllable skills (BB, K, HR) would suggest. It didn’t even matter that this year’s ERA is a full run lower. Not surprisingly, his .348 BABIP is the highest in the AL, and his 63.8% LOB rate is the second lowest in the league. For comparison’s sake, the AL average LOB rate at this juncture is 72.36%.

Due to this lack of luck, his win probability metrics have taken some serious hits. Andy’s -0.39 WPA ranks 5th worst in the league while his -0.34 WPA/LI registers 8th from the bottom. Despite one of the best measures of controllable skills in the league, he has statistically been one of the worst contributors to success. Whereas Aaron Harang has been unlucky in terms of his W-L barometer, Sonnanstine has been unlucky in a number of different areas yet currently holds an 8-3 record.

Sonnanstine has been unlucky thus far in terms of the numbers largely out of his control but don’t tell that to his W-L record, which is good enough to introduce himself to plenty of fantasy owners out there.

I love the BIS pitch data statistics that are available here on FanGraphs. One of the first things we noticed using that data this season was that Justin Verlander’s fastball disappeared in April. He was throwing 91-92 instead of his usual 94-95, and his performance suffered as a result. He walked 18 and struck out just 20 batters in his six April starts, leading to a 6.50 ERA. His struggles were a major reason why Detroit failed to live up to expectations early on.

As the calender rolled into May, however, Verlander’s velocity started to pick up. After averaging just a 91.9 MPH fastball during his first three starts of the season, his fastball averaged 93.6 MPH during May, and his performance improved right along with the velocity spike. In 39 innings in May, he walked 13 and struck out 24 while posting a 3.92 ERA. It still wasn’t classic Verlander, but it was at least encouraging.

Enter June, and it’s safe to say that Verlander is back. His average fastball is now 94.5 MPH, sixth best in baseball during this month, and the results are what we expected from a guy who looked like an emerging ace last season. He’s walked 10 and struck out 28 batters in 27 1/3 innings, dominating hitters and holding them to a .575 OPS.

Whether it was just a tired arm phase or a mechanical tweak, Verlander’s fastball is back, and he’s pitching like the Tigers thought he would heading into the year. Detroit fans have to be happy to have their ace back to pitching like one, and it’s even more comforting that there’s a verifiable explanation for the improvement. For all the talk of guys learning how to pitch without their best stuff, Justin Verlander is clearly a better pitcher when he’s throwing 95 instead of 92.

Like David Price and Wade Davis, Jacob McGee is yet another promising, young pitcher in the Rays system. However, the southpaw, like Davis, is finding Double-A to be a little bit more challenging than A-ball.

Born in California, McGee attended high school in Nevada and was drafted in the fifth round of the 2004 draft. He spent two seasons in Short Season Ball and averaged about 7.5 H/9 and 9.5 K/9 during that time. As a 20-year-old, McGee spent a full year in Low-A ball and allowed 6.92 H/9 and 4.37 BB/9. He also struck out 171 batters in 134 innings (11.49 K/9).

He then put up similar numbers the next year High-A ball, although his walk rate dropped significantly to 3.01 BB/9. He earned a late-season promotion to Double-A and held his own with rates of 7.33 H/9 and 11.57 K/9. He averaged more than five walks per nine innings, though.

McGee returned to Double-A this season and is doing OK, but his strikeouts are down: 8.22 compared to a career average of 10.43. His hit rate remains good at 7.26. It’s no surprise that minor league hitters struggle to make good contract against McGee, who has a fastball that can touch the high 90s and solid secondary pitches (a slider and change-up). He has done a nice job of holding right-handed batters to a .236 average this season and lefties are at .213.

At only 21 years of age, McGee remains a very promising prospect and has the potential to be a No. 2 starter at the major league level if he can improve the command of his secondary pitches.