Archive for 2008

Today we’re talking about Marcus Thames, the Tigers outfielder who essentially garners the following scouting report – “Will hit for power but not much else, and will strikeout a lot.”

Through 40 games this year, Thames is hitting .240/.307/.510 (compared to a .241/.306/.494 career line), doing all he can to show that he does not hit much but, when he does, it is generally of the extra-bases variety. Of his 25 hits this year, 12 (48%) are either doubles or home runs. Of all his seasons with at least 100 PA, his XBH percentages have ranged from 43-52%.

Due to this we can assume his ISO, basically the BA of extra base hits, to be higher than his overall BA:

2004: .255 BA, .255 ISO
2005: .196 BA, .215 ISO
2006: .256 BA, .293 ISO
2007: .242 BA, .257 ISO
2008: .240 BA, .269 ISO

His strikeout rates in this same span run from 22.1% to 35.5% so Thames knows how to confirm scouting reports. He hits for power more often than not but does not put the ball in play much due to the high volume of strikeouts. This is not to say he lacks value, though, as he has a positive career WPA and WPA/LI. This year, his WPA slash line (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) is currently 0.56/0.07/0.55.

He has contributed a little over half of a win to his team in WPA, but the large dropoff between that and WPA/LI suggests his contributions have more to do with the situations he finds himself in rather than his actual individual performance. He does not qualify for the Fangraphs leaderboards but, if he did, his Clutch score would rank 9th in the AL. I’ve read elsewhere that some fans (of different teams as well) would love for him to replace an unproductive outfielder of theirs, not just because of his “pop” but also his relatively low market value. He might be a decent upgrade over some other current outfielders but he should not be treated as a savior or any sort.

The scouting report on him has not been wrong yet: Thames will strikeout a ton, won’t get on base much, won’t hit for average, but will hit for power. Nothing more, nothing less.

Bench players are almost always not given a starting job for a reason – they have a significant flaw in their game that usually involves either an inability to field a position, a lack of offensive ability, or (if you’re a Seattle Mariner) both. Teams just want their reserves to be able to fill a specific role (pinch runner, defensive replacement, etc…) and not completely embarrass themselves when they get put in the game.

For instance, the average in-game substitute compiles a .217/.305/.324 line after entering the game. As a group, reserves don’t hit much – if they did, they’d be starting. But in Philadelphia, it’s a different story – their subs have hit .283/.350/.453 in 183 plate appearances off the bench. That .803 OPS from their subs is 52 percent better than the league average performance, and is one of the reasons the Phillies are surging to the front of the N.L. East.

The shining star of the Phillies fill-ins is Greg Dobbs, who has destroyed the baseball in games he entered but did not start – 19 for 42 with five extra base hits for a .452/.467/.653 mark. That dwarfs Dobbs’ performance as a starter – 13 for 45 with three extra base hits for a .289/.333/.400 mark. This, of course, is just random variation, but it’s interesting random variation.

The Phillies have some big name stars and several former MVPs on their roster, but let’s not overlook the yeoman’s work their bench has done for them this year. Jayson Werth, Chris Coste, and Greg Dobbs have given them all-star caliber performances despite not being handed regular jobs out of spring training, and those guys are the hidden stars on the first place Phillies.

One thing the Oakland Athletics organization does not get enough credit for, thank to the media focus on its drafting philosophies, is finding diamonds in the rough. In recent seasons, the Athletics have found players in the bargain bin only to squeeze unexpected value from them. That list includes such players as Jack Cust, Shannon Stewart, Andrew Brown, Jack Hannahan, and Frank Thomas (version 1.0).

The same can be said for minor league players in the system… Now these players may not have a major impact like Cust did when he hit 26 homers in 2007, but minor league depth is vitally important for a franchise to be successful. As such, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting players the Athletics organization has added to its system via minor league free agency and the waiver wire.

At 6-1, 165 pounds, third baseman Jesus Guzman does not look like a slugger, but he currently has 18 doubles and 12 home runs in 276 at-bats for the Double-A Midland RockHounds. The 24-year-old minor league free agent pick-up is also hitting .355/.405./.565. Last year at High-A ball (albeit in the hitting haven of High Desert), Guzman hit .301/.370/.539 with 25 homers, 38 doubles, 102 runs scored and 112 RBI. Why did Seattle give up on this guy? The organization likely cut ties with him because his big 2007 came after two not-so-great seasons at Double-A. But that comes with a caveat because Seattle did what is becoming a disturbing trend. It rushed Guzman. He came to North America, after signing out of Venezuela, and was immediately placed in High-A ball at the age of 20. He then was pushed to Double-A the next season and he averaged about .258/.334/.388 for the next two seasons before moving back down to High-A ball and thriving.

Jon Zeringue, 25, has been a nice find for the A’s organization and has provided solid numbers for Double-A Midland since being picked up out of an independent baseball league last season. The former second round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks was, like Guzman, rushed through the minors and struggled with Double-A before being unceremoniously released. This season he his hitting .290/.383/.504 with 11 homers and 42 runs scored in 238 at-bats. He has a .340 average against southpaws and 10 of his 16 hits have been doubles.

Wes Bankston is a forgotten member of the Tampa Bay Rays’ ridiculous minor league depth. Drafted out of high school, the slugging first baseman hit .301/.346/.569 with 18 homers in 246 Rookie Ball at-bats in 2002. Two seasons later in A-ball, he slugged 23 homers and drove in 101 runs and sat amongst the Rays’ best prospects. Then injuries slowed his ascent and the organization experimented with an ill-advised conversion to third base. After a disappointing offensive season at Triple-A in 2007, at the age of 23, Bankston was removed from the 40-man roster to make room for a new wave of talent and was claimed on waivers by the A’s. Bankston is still struggling at Triple-A as his plate discipline has diminished along with his power but he is still young enough to recapture his past approach and secure a part-time Major League job.

From all appearances Brooks Conrad is a perfect fit for the Athletics organization. The former eighth round pick of the Houston Astros out of Arizona State University was never given a fair shake in the organization despite above-average offensive numbers as a second baseman, including 40 doubles, 15 triples and 24 homers in Triple-A in 2006. Conrad did not even sniff a Major League plate appearance in seven seasons in the Astros organization. His numbers are not looking so hot this season but Conrad could still have some value on a major league bench, in part due to his grinder mentality, if he can improve his average. He is currently hitting .227/.293/.446 with 13 homers in 242 at-bats.

Casey Rogowski is a former White Sox prospect. The left-handed hitting first baseman has always intrigued teams with his raw power and surprising base running skills for a 6-3, 230 pound man. He has stolen more than 15 bases seven times and surpassed 20 twice. However, he has only exceeded 15 homers once, although he is on pace to do it again this season and is currently hitting .273/.347/.444 with nine homers in 216 at-bats. Rogowski has also taken his fair share of walks in his career. He is yet another player who could eventually find part-time employment at the Major League level.

You don’t win big without taking a little risk and thinking outside the box, which is what these players represent. They won’t be superstars and some of them may never play at the Major League level for the Athletics but, as mentioned, the organization is one of the best when it comes to squeezing value out of other organization’s rejects and failed projects. These five players all possess the potential to join the likes of Cust and Hannahan at exceeding expectations.

It is not uncommon for a famous or successful closer to either hang around too long or accept a lesser bullpen role as he gets up there in age. Eddie Guardado, however, has gone from starter, to reliable reliever, to famous and successful closer, to a “he’s still pitching??” guy, to a forgotten entity, all the way to a big part of the Texas Rangers’ early relative success. I say relative success due to their current performance vastly exceeding pre-season expectations.

In 24 games this season, Guardado has pitched 20.2 IP, giving up 15 hits, while walking six and striking out ten. Just one of those hits has been a home run. His performance has garnered a 3.05 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP. Of those 24 games, just three have resulted in an overall negative WPA, and one of them was a miniscule -0.007. In fact, when we look at what I am officially calling The WPA Slash (WPA/WPA-LI/Clutch) Guardado has a very productive 1.18/0.58/0.53.

His K/9 of 4.35 is abnormally low when compared to his past rates; in fact, the last time it dipped this low in a full season was 1993, his rookie year, when he actually started 16 of his 19 games. A strikeout rate that low suggests hitters are making plenty of contact off Guardado, meaning the majority of his outs have come from balls put in play. We may expect pitchers with a high percentage of balls in play to in turn have high BABIPs—more balls in play would provide more opportunity for those balls to fall in for hits—however Eddie’s is currently a miniscule .225. While it has been speculated that elite relievers may consistently post lower BABIPs it is not very likely he will sustain one this low while simultaneously sustaining that low of a strikeout rate.

Still, the man with the rubber arm has helped stabilize an otherwise suspect bullpen, in turn helping the Rangers to a 34-34 start.

In looking at the league leaders this morning I found something pretty interesting: Of all players with a WPA of at least 1.84—excluding Matt Holliday who has been injured for a while—Aramis Ramirez is the only one with a home run total under fourteen. While Aramis has hit nine long balls everyone else contributing this much has hit their fair share more. It isn’t as if he ranks towards the bottom of this 1.84 minimum, either, as his 2.29 WPA currently ranks 7th amongst all hitters; and, yes, “their fare share” is in fact a triple-rhyme.

Through 62 games, this slugger is posting a .302/.417/.507 slash line, with 9 HR, 19 2B, and 43 RBI. If his OBP looks oddly high it is likely due to the fact that he has never finished a season higher than .373 in that department and his career mark comes in at .340.

Since he has posted batting averages over .300 in the past it would make sense that he is walking more this year. Confirming this theory is his 14.4% walk rate; one much higher than the 5.3-8.2% range he posted from 2002-2007. In fact, his career high is 9.7%. One of the main reasons his rate of walks has jumped is his drastic drop in swings at pitches out of the zone. Last year, he swung at 30.76% of pitches out of the zone whereas this year, just 23.54%.

He’s striking our more this year as well, with a 16.9 K% compared to 13% a year ago. A leading contributor to his increased strikeouts is a somewhat drastic drop in contact. Last year, he made contact 84.85% of the time; this year, just 78.47% of the time.

His overall production has not suffered much from the drop in contact but he does currently have a .331 BABIP. With regards to his balls in play, he is hitting 3% less grounders, replacing them with line drives. Additionally, though his flyball rate has stayed stagnant, his HR/FB has dropped from 13.3% to 10.8%.

It seems that Ramirez is making less contact but more of the balls he puts in play are falling in for hits. His “lack” of power this season should be attributed more to his decrease in home runs per flyball. If he has actually lost some power than his OPS will not remain .924 all season as it is not very likely to sustain a BB% that much higher than the range he has proven himself capable of; along similar lines, if his past performance is any indication he will still hit anywhere from 26-35 home runs by seasons end. Should these two stats reverse his OPS would remain in the general range. Now, BB% and K% are pretty quick to stabilize but this is a pretty drastic jump.

This just goes to show that a guy can be an extremely effective offensive contributor without hitting dingers each and every night.

Right-hander Danny Haren has been very good to the Oakland Athletics. Not only did he give them three seasons of above-average pitching, but he also brought first baseman Daric Barton and reliever Kiko Calero over with him when he was traded to the West Coast from St. Louis prior to the 2005 season. All three players have been key cogs in the A’s successes over the past three years, and Barton promises to be a mainstay in the lineup for many years (or until his trade value is at its peak).

Haren, along with minor league right-hander Connor Robertson, also brought the Athletics a plethora of talent when he was traded from Oakland to Arizona prior to the 2008 seasons. The booty obtained for the right-hander includes southpaws Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Brett Anderson, first baseman Chris Carter and outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham.

Haren 6-4 W-L | 83.2 IP | 7.64 K/9 | 1.61 BB/9 | .234 AVG | 3.25 FIP
Eveland 4-5 W-L | 76.2 IP | 6.22 K/9 | 4.58 BB/9 | .234 AVG | 3.83 FIP
Smith 3-5 W-L | 74.2 IP | 6.75 K/9 | 3.25 BB/9 | .236 AVG | 3.86 FIP

Obviously, Haren, 27, has a proven track record whereas the younger Eveland, 24, and Smith, 24, do not. That said, you have to enjoy the fact Oakland turned one key part of its rotation into two key parts, keeping in mind how valuable young, affordable pitching is and how incredibly valuable young, affordable, left-handed pitching is now. Eveland has always had a little bit of a higher profile than Smith, who was always considered to be one of those ‘soft-tossers’ who can fool minor leaguers but would probably get lit up by the bigger, stronger Major Leaguers. So far, though, Smith is proving his doubters wrong in the post-Mitchell Report era. Eveland’s stuff is a little bit better than Smith’s, but the southpaw has always been compared to former Major Leaguer David Wells, and not in a fattering – sorry, flattering way. Basically with these three pitchers you have to decide if a No. 2 starter, or borderline No. 1 starter, is more valuable than both a No. 3 and No. 4 starter.

Robertson, 26, is a former 31st round draft pick who has settled into a bullpen role and is currently pitching in Triple-A Tucson. He has a 4.32 ERA in 41.2 innings. Robertson has allowed 33 hits and 18 walks to go along with 42 strikeouts. His stuff is average at best and he allows a lot of fly balls so his ceiling is limited to that of a 12th or 13th man on a Major League pitching staff.

Anderson, 20, is one of the top southpaw prospects in all of baseball and was considered an advanced high school pitcher when he was drafted. So far this season, in High-A ball, Anderson has a 4.43 ERA in 61 innings. He has allowed 62 hits and has walked 2.21 batters per nine innings (BB/9). He has also posted a rate of 9.59 K/9. Anderson’s ERA is a bit misleading as he pitched hurt for a little while before going on the disabled list in mid-May. If you subtract those three straight poor starts that included 19 earned runs in 11 innings, his ERA lowers to 1.98.

At the time of the trade, Gonzalez, 22, was considered the key player in the deal as the Diamondbacks’ top prospect. He has done nothing to disappoint since becoming an American Leaguer and he is currently hitting .262/.279/.452 in 42 at-bats at the major league level. Interestingly, of his 11 hits, Gonzalez has eight doubles. In fact, his first seven major league hits were doubles. Earlier in the season at Triple-A, Gonzalez batted .293/.351/.439 in 157 at-bats. He is still raw to some degree but loaded with potential.

Cunningham began the season on the disabled list but has been making up for lost time. The fringe major league starter (not enough range for center, not enough power for the corners) is currently hitting .291/.357/.417 in Double-A, with three homers and five stolen bases in 151 at-bats. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts, which are piling up at a rate of 27.3 percent.

Originally acquired by the Diamondbacks from the White Sox, Carter has settled into Oakland’s system nicely, with his combination of walks and home runs. He still has work to do to develop into a major leaguer, though. The power is undeniable but Carter needs to improve his contact rates. He is currently hitting .224/.342/.480 with 14 homers in 223 at-bats. He has walked 15.2 percent of the time but struck out at a rate of 31.8 percent.

Yesterday I wrote about how C.C. Sabathia has not necessarily turned his season around recently but rather had worse numbers than his performance level would indicate; this was primarily due to two poor starts quite early in the season. As I went to post the article I caught a glimpse of the leaderboards on the main page here and spotted Josh Beckett amongst those with the fastest heaters. It soon dawned on me I had absolutely no idea what Beckett was doing this year; how he had performed; how the numbers looked; or even his finger-blister ratio.

Checking out his statistics I soon realized he is also suffering from Unjust Barometer Syndrome; not that a 4.22 ERA is terrible or a 6-4 W-L merits demotion but remove those barometers and Beckett is doing pretty much exactly the same thing as a year ago.

2007: 6.69 IP/G, 3.08 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, .316 BABIP, .250 BAA, 4.85 K/BB
2008: 6.58 IP/G, 3.33 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .311 BABIP, .249 BAA, 5.53 K/BB

So, literally, if you strip away W-L and ERA, the similarities amongst these statistics should be similar enough to the point that any added commentary would come off as redundant.

His K/9 has gone from 8.70 to 9.46; his BB/9 has dropped from 1.79 to 1.71; and his HR/9 has risen from 0.76 to 1.25. Put together, this has led to the increase in FIP. His rates of balls in play have shifted in quite the odd fashion as well. His career LD/GB/FB is 18.8/44.2/37.0. Last year they came in at 15.8/47.3/36.9; this year they are currently 21.9/37.9/40.2. Beckett is getting significantly less grounders than a year ago, and many more line drives/flyballs. His HR/FB has, in turn, risen from 8.0% to 12.5%.

His LOB has dropped, too, from 75.2% to 70.1%. Since he is allowing essentially the same amount of baserunners (look at his WHIP, BAA, and BABIP posted above) it seems that his higher-than-it-should-be ERA is a direct result of the change in BIP rates, which give more of an opportunity for balls to leave the yard—which they have as evidenced by his HR/9 increase. All told, Beckett’s numbers should not worry Red Sox fans at all; they weren’t too bad even with the barometers but, when we dig deep it becomes clear he is just as good as last year.

It’s not a big surprise that some members of the Florida Marlins are hitting well this year. We knew that Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Dan Uggla, and Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs all had offensive ability, and as Eric noted last night, they’ve even gotten some production from Cody Ross as well. But there’s one guy who hasn’t gotten a lot of recognition despite tearing the cover off the ball for Florida this year – Jorge Cantu.

After going deep twice last night, Cantu now has 14 long balls in 250 at-bats, leading to a strong .296/.346/.532 line that has made him one of the most productive third baseman in the National League on the year. His above average power is his main calling card, as 31 of his 76 hits have gone for extra bases. He’s still the same aggressive hitter he’s always been (career 5.2% BB% and 18.8% K%), and he can be exploited by pitchers with good breaking balls. However, there aren’t many guys on earth who can tear the cover off a fastball better than Cantu, and the Marlins were willing to overlook what he can’t do to get the value from the thing he can do.

You see, Jorge Cantu might be the worst defensive player on earth. MGL released the 2008 UZR leaderboards the other day, and surprising no one, Cantu ranked out as the worst defensive third baseman in baseball so far this year. This isn’t anything new – Cantu has ranked at the bottom of practically every defensive metric ever invented in every single season he’s played. It isn’t just a numbers thing, either – scouts and managers alike cringe every time a ball is hit his direction.

By most accounts, Cantu costs his team something like 20 to 25 runs a season versus an average defender over a full season. If Cantu keeps hitting at this level, his offensive value will make up for almost all of his defensive flaws, and the Marlins will have found themselves a league average third baseman for the league minimum. But realistically, Cantu’s not going to hit this well all season, and with his glove issues, he really belongs at DH. If ever there was a player who the designated hitter was invented for, Cantu is it.

The Marlins, however, will gladly take the combination of his bat and glove as long as he’s hitting this well, and teams that continue to believe that they have to spend millions to find somewhat useful players should remember that guys like Cantu are easily found if you’re willing to look around.

The title of this post should be taken quite literally. Cody Ross, a 5’9 outfielder of the Florida Marlins, may not intimidate opposing pitchers with his stature but he sure will with his bat. Over the last 14 days he has been the most productive major league player—hitter or pitcher—with a 1.44 WPA. The player closest to Ross is Jose Guillen, who has a 1.26 WPA in that same span. Ross has posted a .316/.386/.711 slash line in this span, complete with 3 2B, 4 HR, 2 SB, and 11 RBI.

Something really interesting regarding Ross’s numbers is his seasonal slash line: .228/.299/.535. Ross has an OPS of .834 that clearly consists primarily of his power. His ISO counts of this and last year back that up; .318 in 2007, .307 this year. Oddly enough, though, his BABIPs traveled in different directions; .374 last year, .191 this year. Last year’s very high BABIP led to a slash line of .335/.411/.653 in 66 games. With a 1.064 OPS last year Ross showed he could be a productive major leaguer but that OPS looks like a 50/50 balance when stacked up next to this year’s OBP and SLG.

I looked to see if there has been a significant number of instances in which players posted OPS totals above .830 with an OBP under .300 and found the answer to be a resounding no. In fact, since 1901, there have only been three hitters to accomplish this “feat” while playing 50 or more games:

1) Mike Jacobs, 2008: 54 GP, .847 OPS
2) Cody Ross, 2008: 50 GP, .834 OPS
3) Daryle Ward, 2000: 119 GP, .833 OPS

Now, granted Ross and Jacobs are still playing so it is not truly fair to list them alongside Ward; Daryle is the only person to do it for a whole season since 1901. There have likely been others to accomplish what Ross and Jacobs are doing during random 50-game spans but, right now, they are the only two players with these numbers.

For those unaware, Jacobs is also a member of the Marlins. Just two players this year have a sub-.300 OBP and .830+ OPS and both are on the same team. Overall, though, they’ll each need about 60+ games of similar production to reach the level of Ward.

This morning, we looked at the regression of the Arizona Diamondbacks offense and how it’s caused the team to struggle since the end of April. But the hitters aren’t the only ones who haven’t held up their end of the bargain, so now, let’s take a look at the pitchers.

In April, the D’backs did a better job of preventing runs than any other team in baseball, posting a 3.25 ERA in their first 252 innings of work. They did it by excelling in all three of the true outcomes categories, ranking third in the NL in strikeouts (206), fourth in walks (92), and tied for first in home runs allowed (19). Brandon Webb took his awesomeness up a level, giving up just nine earned runs in 41 innings of work, while offseason acquisition Dan Haren chipped in with 37 1/3 innings of work and a 3.13 ERA himself. But, really, the stars of April were the bullpen, as the Arizona relievers (led by Chad Qualls, Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, and Juan Cruz) posted a 2.48 ERA as a group.

When you’re not putting people on base or letting them hit the ball over the wall, and you’re missing bats regularly, opposing offenses aren’t going to score many runs – best in the N.L. in April. Even if you got Webb and Haren out of the game, it wasn’t getting any easier. It’s tough for any bullpen to sustain pitching of that quality, however, and sure enough, the Arizona relievers have taken a pretty big step back since. In May, they posted a 4.48 ERA as a group, thanks largely to increases in their walk rate (3.41 BB/9 in April, 4.21 BB/9 in May) and in their home run rate (.49 HR/9 in April, .71 HR/9 in May). Without a bullpen slamming the door, it became harder for Arizona to hang on for close wins, and the struggles of their relievers turned games they were winning in April into losses in May.

It’s not just the relievers, however, who have taken a step back. Micah Owings was brilliant in his first four starts of the season, posting a 2.42 ERA with a 6/23 BB/K in 26 innings of work. In his last nine starts, however, he’s put up a 5.90 ERA in 50 innings of work. After winning the first four starts he made, the D’Backs are just 3-6 in his last nine, thanks in large part to the runs he’s allowed. However, D’Backs fans should be encouraged that his underlying performance hasn’t changed that dramatically. Here are his April/May core stats side by side:

April: 2.08 BB/9, 7.96 K/9, 1.03 HR/9
May: 3.22 BB/9, 7.69 K/9, 1.25 HR/9

The extra walk per game explains some of the difference, but that May profile is still quite a bit better than his ERA would suggest. Owings will bounce back, and I wouldn’t worry about him much if I was an Arizona fan.

While the pitching staff hasn’t been as good as they were in April, there are fewer reasons for concern here than with the offense. Webb/Haren/Johnson/Owings/Davis is a terrific rotation, and the bullpen is still solid, even if not best-in-the-league as they were early on in the year. The D’Backs are going to be among the league leaders in preventing runs, and even with the rough patch they’ve gone through, they should be happy with the personnel they have. They just need another hitter.