Archive for 2008

Everyone knew this would be an important season for Cy Young Award incumbent C.C. Sabathia. Pitching in the final of his contract, with the type of money Johan Santana proved pitchers could receive, all Sabathia really needed to do was pitch like some semblance of what we have come to expect from the huge Indians lefty. After his first four starts panic began to surface across some of the blogosphere due to the following numbers:

4 GS, 0-3, 18 IP, 32 H, 27 ER, 14 BB, 14 K
13.50 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, 1.00 K/BB

Those are not numbers indicative of a potential 150 million dollar man. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending how you look at it, Sabathia has been terribly unlucky for most of the season, not just due to his FIP coming in so much lower than his ERA or a very high BABIP, but because his overall numbers are tainted for the most part by just 2 of his 14 starts.

4/11: 3.1 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
4/16: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 5 BB, 1 K

Take away those two starts and here Sabathia’s numbers:

14 GS: 91.1 IP, 95 H, 28 BB, 87 K, 4.34 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
12 GS: 84.0 IP, 75 H, 21 BB, 82 K, 2.79 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Believe me yet when I say those two starts, just 14% of his season, severely affected the rest? Remove them and Sabathia starts to look like teammate Cliff Lee or even current saber-darling Edinson Volquez. While I am normally not a fan of removing information to make someone look better it is hard to look past those two starts, which seem way, way behind him, hindering his overall numbers from reflecting his true performance level.

In fact, lately, Carston Charles has been even better, as from 5/9 to 6/10 he has a 1.77 WPA, thanks in large part to these numbers:

5/9-6/10: 7 GS, 53 IP, 45 H, 10 BB, 50 K, 2.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

Fangraphs recently added a feature on the leaderboards allowing us to look at performance over the last 7, 14, and 30 days; in the last 30, just Scott Kazmir has been a more productive starting pitcher than Sabathia. His overall numbers may look worse than in recent years but do not let them fool you: Over the last month, and essentially ever since April 16, Sabathia has largely (very largely in his case) been himself.

The Arizona Diamondbacks came out of the gates quickly in 2008, punishing their opponents in April and looking like the early team to beat. Their offense was scoring runs in bunches and their pitching was stellar, leading to a lot of lopsided wins. On April 28th, they stood 19-7. Even after yesterday’s win, they are now just 35-30. Today, we’ll take a two part look at what’s gone wrong in the desert in the last six weeks.

In April, the D’Backs hit .268/.345/.468, posting an OPS that was 21 percent better than the league average and second best in the National League, trailing only the Cubs in offensive production. They were led by huge months from Conor Jackson (.348/.430/.630) and Justin Upton (.327/.372/.554) while getting solid performances from just about everyone else. However, neither player has been able to sustain their hot starts, with Jackson hitting .253/.273/.385 since May 1st and Upton struggling to a .196/.353/.355 mark in that same time frame.

In fact, the D’Backs don’t have a single hitter who has been consistently good all season. Mark Reynolds was great at the beginning of April, struggled badly from the end of April through May, and has caught fire again in June, and along with Jackson, he’s been the most productive D’Backs hitter so far this season. But some good runs mixed with long slumps (Reynolds posted a .441 OPS between April 23rd and May 17th) simply won’t do for middle of the order hitters on a contending club.

Arizona’s offense is comprised of a bunch of good-but-not-great hitters. There isn’t an MVP hitter on this team, and so they’re going to have to get production from all eight spots (plus Micah Owings) to score enough runs to be a legitimate contender. If the offensive yo-yo continues, Josh Byrnes and company might have to look into acquiring another hitter for the stretch run.

As every baseball fan not living under a rock knows, Ken Griffey Jr. hit his 600th home run last night, putting him in a category with just Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Sammy Sosa. Griffey is currently being managed by Dusty Baker, who previously managed Bonds and Sosa and played alongside Aaron, which is eerily interesting in its own right.

Griffey did not play in much of the Reds/Phillies four game series last week, while stuck on 599, but between 599 and 600 he remained pretty productive, posting the following milestone tweener numbers:

Griffey Between: 6-14, 3 2B, 9 BB, .429/.652/.643, 1.295 OPS

With that in mind I decided to take a look at how the 600 Club sans-Ruth performed in between certain milestones.

Willie Mays: 599 on 9/15/69, 600 on 9/22/69
Between: 7-21, 2B, 2 RBI, .333/.391/.381

Sammy Sosa: 599 on 6/15/07, 600 on 6/20/07
Between: 0-13, 5 K

Barry Bonds: 599 on 8/6/02, 600 on 8/9/02
Between: 3-8, 2B, 5 BB, .375/.700/.500

Barry Bonds: 659 on 4/5/04, 660 on 4/12/04
Between: 4-17, 2B, RBI, 7 BB, .235/.458/.235

Barry Bonds: 699 on 9/12/04, 700 on 9/17/04
Between: 3-9, 2B, RBI, .333/.571/.444

Barry Bonds: 713 on 5/7/06, 714 on 5/20/06
Between: 4-29, 2B, 2 RBI, .138/.400/.172

Barry Bonds: 754 on 7/27/07, 755 on 8/4/07
Between: 2-18, 10 BB, .111/.444/.111

Barry Bonds: 755 on 8/4/07, 756 on 8/7/07
Between: 2-5, 2B, .400/.571/.600

Griffey’s milestone tweener plate appearances produced the highest OPS of this group. Granted, Babe Ruth’s gamelogs are not easily available, and he may have out-OPSd Griffey between some of his milestones but, as a devout baseball fan, regardless of these numbers, I cannot help but wish some of what Dave discussed this morning actually came true.

Dontrelle Willis is broken. At 26 years old, for whatever reason, he has lost the ability to throw the ball over the plate. Here are his performances so far in 2008:

April 5th, vs White Sox: 5 IP, 1 H, 7 BB, 0 K, 99 pitches, 46 strikes
April 11th, vs White Sox: 0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 14 pitches, 4 strikes
May 23rd, vs Twins: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 28 pitches, 13 strikes
June 3rd, vs Athletics: 4 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 70 pitches, 37 strikes
June 9th, vs Indians: 1 1/3 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 2 K, 64 pitches, 27 strikes

After his April 11th appearance, the Tigers put him on the DL to try to give him a chance to figure out his mechanics and get himself ready to pitch. It didn’t work, and after three more disastrous appearances since returning, he’s now been optioned to Single-A Lakeland of the Florida State League, as the Tigers are going to put him on the Roy Halladay plan to try to repair their busted starting pitcher. Toronto sent Halladay back to the minors in 2000 after he posted a 10.64 ERA in 67 innings of work, and with some changes in his approach and his delivery, he returned in 2001 and restarted a dominating, Cy Young career.

That’s obviously the best case scenario for Willis, but it appears an unlikely one. While Halladay was bad in 2000, he wasn’t anywhere near this horrible.

Halladay, 2000: 5.59 BB/9, 5.85 K/9, 1.86 HR/9, 6.49 FIP
Willis, 2008: 16.68 BB/9, 3.97 K/9, 1.59 HR/9, 10.11 FIP

Halladay was bad, but Willis is struggling on a Rick Ankiel level. Only 48% of his pitches on the season have been strikes, and he’s posting a dreadful 6% swinging strike rate. Even when he manages to get the ball over the plate, which is a rarity unto itself, hitters are making contact. He’s simply not able to locate any of his pitches, and the results lead to either a called ball or a crushed line drive.

Generally, when a pitcher struggles this badly, the initial assumption is that he’s hurt, but Willis’ stuff hasn’t taken much of a dive. His fastball velocity still sits at 88.5 MPH, down less than 1 MPH from last year’s mark, and he’s actually throwing his change-up harder this year than at any point in the last four years. If he’s’ hurt, it isn’t affecting his velocity.

Really, the best guess here is that it’s a mental problem. By sending him to Lakeland, the Tigers can get him some work away from the obsessive eyes of fans and let him tinker with his mechanics in a safe environment where the results don’t matter. But, for 2008, Tigers fans should assume they’re not going to see Willis again – he could use the next three months in the minors to fix what’s broken and try to return as a successful pitcher in 2009.

The Oakland Athletics organization made some key trades in the 2007-08 off-season. A trade with the Chicago White Sox saw the A’s send one of its key offensive cogs north in somewhat of a surprising move. First baseman-outfielder Nick Swisher was traded to The Windy City for disappointing outfielder Ryan Sweeney and top pitching prospects Gio Gonzalez and Fautino De Los Santos.

Swisher’s trade was a bit of a surprise considering he was a young hitter locked into a reasonable five-year contract that runs through 2011 and includes an option at $10.25 million for 2012. That said, Swisher has struggled this season with the White Sox and is hitting only .228/.343/.386 in 215 at-bats. His slugging percentage is down 70 points from his career average. Maybe the A’s knew something the rest of us did not (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more)? Or maybe he is just having an off year. On the plus side, he’s still walking a lot (14.7 percent) and the club is in first place in its division.

Sweeney, a former second round pick out of high school, was in desperate need of a scenery change – and former Sox teammate Brian Anderson is no doubt envious of his good fortune. Sweeney, 23, is currently hitting .293/.353/.407 in 123 at-bats for his new club. Those obviously are not All-Star numbers but he has been a solid contributor for the organization.

Southpaw Gonzalez, 22, is currently biding his time in Triple-A Sacramento and gives the Athletics excellent starting pitching depth. If the club needed him, he could probably be at least a league average starter right now. Currently, he has a 5.71 ERA in 64.2 innings of work with 74 hits allowed and 35 walks. His numbers are a little skewed after he was roughed up in two of his last four starts for 17 earned runs on 20 hits in 8.2 innings.

De Los Santos, 22, was considered one of the biggest up-and-comers in 2007 after going 10-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 122.1 A-ball innings. But he succumbed to Tommy John surgery after only five High-A ball starts after coming over to the Athletics. Gee… what a surprise. The White Sox organization has never traded (Mike) an injured pitcher (Sirotka) before. Luckily the track record for pitchers returning from the surgery is pretty solid.

Even with the injury, the trade seems to be in Oakland’s favor at this point.

Ater being stuck on 599 for several weeks, Ken Griffey Jr launched the 600th home run of his career last night, allowing Mark Hendrickson to go down in history for something other than being tall. Junior joins Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Sammy Sosa as the only players in history to notch 600 career bombs.

Growing up in Seattle, I saw Junior come up as a 19-year-old and then grow into an MVP candidate. One of the most frequent conversations I had with friends was whether Junior was going to be the one to get to 756 and break the all time home run record. Most people who saw him play in his prime would agree that he certainly had the ability to do so, but unfortunately, he didn’t have the ability to stay healthy. Due to injuries, he played less than half of a season in 1995, 2002, 2003, and 2004 – those injuries cost him approximately 1,300 at-bats. How many more home runs would he have hit had he stayed healthy?

Well, we can never know for sure, but there are several estimates we can use. The simplest is to note that he has a career rate of one home run every 15.75 at-bats. Over 1,300 trips to the plate, that same rate would have given him an extra 83 bombs. Of course, his career rate includes both his early years before his power developed, and he likely would have posted a AB/HR rate closer to his peak seasons, when he fluctuated between one home run every 10 to 13 trips to the plate. Using those rates, here are the amount of homers we could theoretically add to Junior’s career total depending on which of those numbers you think would best emulate Griffey’s performance.

One HR every 10 at-bats: Add 130 homers
One HR every 11 at-bats: Add 118 homers
One HR every 12 at-bats: Add 108 homers
One HR every 13 at-bats: Add 100 homers

Depending on your beliefs about his abilities in those seasons, the basic assumption should be that the injuries in those four seasons cost him between 100 and 130 home runs, pushing him into the exclusive 700 home run club. At age 38 and reaching a level that suggests he doesn’t have that much left to contribute, it’s unlikely that Junior would have passed Hank Aaron even had he stayed healthy, but he would have had a shot at it.

Ken Griffey Jr has had a great career, but we’ll always wonder what could have been had the injuries not robbed him of a significant part of his career.

When the Pirates cut ties with Matt Morris they needed to replace his spot in the rotation. Opting to fill the role with someone already on the major league club, reliever Phil Dumatrait soon found himself a starter. Since assuming the position he has performed quite well; in fact, he has pitched better than in his relief appearances:

SP: 8 G, 44.2 IP, 35 H, 22 BB, 33 K, 3.22 ERA
RP: 10 G, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 13 BB, 13 K, 3.92 ERA

In terms of WPA, Dumatrait clocks in at -0.65 as a reliever but +0.28 as a starter; the +0.28 makes him the most productive Pirates starting pitcher. Additionally, his relief WPA took a severe hit in one outing—with a -0.666. His overall WPA comes in at -0.37 whereas he has a 0.49 WPA/LI and 0.28 REW.

Overall, Dumatrait is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.31 K/BB. He isn’t the best at keeping runners off base but has stranded 75.8% of them.

Looking at his splits vs. batter handedness, lefties have made up just 20.3% of his total batters faced but he has handled them quite effectively:

RHB: 224 PA, .250/.327/.393, 24 BB, 33 K
LHB: 57 PA, .182/.368/.205, 11 BB, 13 K

He has kept batters to a quite low opposing OPS but batters produce better as the leverage of a situation increases:

High Lev.: 48 PA, .211/.313/.395, .707 OPS, .182 BABIP
Med Lev.: 105 PA, .227/.352/.352, .705 OPS, .271 BABIP
Low Lev.: 128 PA, .254/.331/.351, .682 OPS, .311 BABIP

His opposing OPS increases as the importance of the situation increases while their BABIP decreases. The Pirates have been a surprising 30-33 this season (better than many expected at this point) and Dumatrait’s seamless efforts in filling a rotation spot has been one of the major reasons. With their other starters underperforming it will be key for Phil the Pirate Swingman to sustain this general range of performance.

Tampa Bay has been one of the fun, feel good stories of 2008. After nothing but failure in their franchises history, Tampa has finally been able to convert some of their talent into wins, and they currently have a comfortable three game lead over the Oakland Athletics in the A.L. Wild Card race. The brain trust in Tampa has been building this team around a young core of stars-in-the-making position players that include B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Evan Longoria.

However, interestingly enough, the Rays are winning in spite of their hitters. Indeed, it’s been the run prevention side of the ball that has Tampa in playoff contention for the first time. Their offense is a scoring 4.49 runs per game, basically league average, mostly due to the fact that Crawford (.266/.312/.371) and Pena (.227/.333/.430) have struggled significantly. Upton has maintained his role as the Rays best hitter, but even he has seen his power decline, launching just five home runs so far this year. They’ve gotten positive contributions from useful role players such as Dioner Navarro and Eric Hinske, but overall, the offense has been a disappointment and is the main reason they are no longer in first place in the A.L. East.

Instead, it’s been the pitchers carrying the load. As a team, they have a 4.01 FIP, good for fourth best in the A.L. Only Toronto, Chicago, and Oakland are getting better performances from their pitchers. Scott Kazmir has been unhittable since coming off the disabled list, while James Shields has been his usual consistent self. Edwin Jackson has flashed brilliance more often than not, so even with his inconsistency, he’s been a positive performer, and the back-end rotation guys in Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have been solid if not spectacular.

It’s been the bullpen, however, that has been the biggest difference maker. Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, and J.P. Howell have given the Rays a strong group to cover the 8th and 9th innings, and the bullpen’s performance is reflected in their league leading 4.63 WPA as a group – the highest of any team in the American League. When asked to perform in high leverage situations, Tampa’s bullpen has come through time after time. This is a radical change from last year’s pen that simply poured gasoline on every fire they could find, posting a -8.40 WPA over the season.

By improving the defense, getting better work from their relievers, and stabilizing the back end of the rotation, Tampa has built a winner in spite of the struggles of two of their best hitters. This team still needs Pena and Crawford to start hitting soon, but their unheralded teammates have kept them in the race and bought them enough time to do so.

The Oakland Athletics organization has received a lot of ink over its drafting philosophies, but Billy Beane’s trades tend to get overlooked. The general manager brought a number of highly-touted (and not-so-touted) prospects into the struggling minor league system this past off-season. As such, now is the perfect time to spend the week taking a look at how those transactions have worked out for the Athletics and the club’s trading partners.

Along with a couple larger trades, the Athletics made two smaller trades: one with Toronto and one with Atlanta. On Nov. 18, the organization traded super-sub Marco Scutaro to the Jays for right-handed pitchers Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey. On Jan. 14, the Athletics sent oft-injured outfielder Mark Kotsay to the Braves for pitchers Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond.

In an effort to save some cash with the arbitration-eligible Scutaro, Beane sent arguably the team’s most valuable position player to the Jays. Yes, Scutaro, who was originally acquired by the A’s on waivers from the New York Mets, filled in admirably for the club’s injured infielders:

2004 filled in for injured second baseman Mark Ellis (123 games at 2B)
2005 filled in for injured shortstop Bobby Crosby (81 games at SS)
2006 filled in for injured shortstop Bobby Crosby (69 games at SS)
2007 filled in for injured shortstop Bobby Crosby (43 games at SS)
2007 filled in for injured third baseman Eric Chavez (36 games at 3B)

Scutaro has already proven his worth in Toronto this season. He has filled in for injured shortstop David Eckstein (21 games) and injured third baseman Scott Rolen (20 games). Scutaro has posted his typical offensive numbers with a line of .268/.356/.346 with two homers and five stolen bases in 179 at-bats.

Bell, 24, throws in the low- to mid-90s in the bullpen but has below-average command. After a good spring, he was assigned to Double-A despite posting a 5.33 ERA in the Florida State League for Toronto in 2007. Bell struggled for the A’s in Double-A and posted a 9.45 ERA in 11 games. He was then demoted to High-A ball in mid-May, made one appearance and was placed on the disabled list.

Godfrey, 23, was a starter in the Jays system but he has spent time as a swing man in the A’s system due to his lack of a quality third pitch to accompany his low-90s fastball and slider. So far this season in High-A ball, Godfrey has posted a 4.92 ERA in 56.2 innings. He has allowed 57 hits and 16 walks. Godfrey has struck out 45 batters but allowed six homers.

It was no secret that the A’s wanted to get rid of center fielder Kotsay and the organization found a taker in Atlanta. He rewarded his new club with a solid performance so far this season. Kotsay currently has a line of .294/.344/.435 with four homers and two stolen bases in 170 at-bats.

The Athletics, on the other hand, received a couple of interesting arms in return for Kotsay. Devine, a former first round pick, struggled with his command as a member of the Atlanta Braves and walked 22 batters in 20.1 innings over parts of three seasons. So far with the A’s, though, Devine has walked only seven batters in 22 innings. He has also struck out 28 hitters and allowed 16 hits. He has yet to give up a homer and could eventually move into the closer’s role if (and when) the Athletics trade current fireman Huston Street.

Richmond, 22, started his A’s career by struggling after being send back to A-ball to begin the year despite modest success at that level last season for Atlanta. He currently has a 3.79 ERA in 69 innings and has allowed 64 hits and just eight walks. The right-hander has struck out 48 batters and has induced two ground balls for every fly ball out.

Last week I took a look at how the members of Atlanta’s former big three—Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine—are currently performing. It only made sense to now take a look at Atlanta’s newest incarnation of a big three. The quotes in the title do not imply sarcasm but rather denote the large dropoff in talent from one group to another.

With Smoltz now out for the season, Mike Hampton pulling a Hampton (what we can now call DL-stints for pitchers) and Chuck James pitching in AAA, Bobby Cox has had to get creative with his rotation. These three have seemingly been replaced with Jair Jurrjens, JoJo Reyes, and Jorge Campillo. So, how are the newbies faring?

Jair Jurrjens
13 GS, 6-3, 3.77 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.44 WHIP
76.1 IP, 78 H, 32 BB, 55 K
73.3% LOB, .313 BABIP, 1.72 K/BB
FA: 91.5mph/64.5%, SL: 80.4mph/9.3%, CH: 83.9mph/26.2%
1st 10 GS: 61.1 IP, 50 H, 18 ER, 22 BB, 45 K, +0.884 WPA, 31 RS (3.1/gm)
Last 3 GS: 15.0 IP, 28 H, 14 ER, 10 BB, 10 K, -0.764 WPA, 18 RS (6.0/gm)

Essentially, Jurrjens pitched his best when the Braves weren’t scoring for him but lately, with plenty of runs, he must have felt bad for the oppositions and let them score to make it more competitive.

JoJo Reyes
8 GS, 2-4, 4.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.42 WHIP
45 IP, 48 H, 16 BB, 42 K
68.9% LOB, .331 BABIP, 2.63 K/BB
FA: 91.3mph/63.8%, SL: 81.5mph/12.5%, CU: 72.7mph/8.6%, CH: 82.3mph/15.2%
5/28 @ Mil: 7 IP, 2 H, ER, 3 BB, 9 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
All Others: 38 IP, 46 H, 23 ER, 13 BB, 33 K, 5.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Reyes throws virtually the same amount of fastballs and sliders as Jurrjens, but splits the rest between a curve and changeup. He has a nice K/BB ratio but he lets many on base and hasn’t been the best at preventing them from scoring.

Jorge Campillo
5 GS (18 GP), 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.03 WHIP
45.2 IP, 38 H, 9 BB, 38 K
74.8% LOB, .278 BABIP, 4.22 K/BB
FA: 86.6mph/34.5%, SL: 81.7mph/19.2%, CU: 71.0mph/12.4%, CH: 75.3mph/27.3%
As SP: 5 G, 24.1 IP, 22 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .663 OPS
As RP: 13 G, 21.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .516 OPS

Almost 30 years old and still considered a rookie, Campillo pitched so well out of the pen he earned a spot in the rotation. Since joining he really has not disappointed. Campillo is the definitive example of a “comfortable 0-fer” as hitters will not be dominated by his pitching but could very easily find themselves 0-4 at the end of the day, wondering how this guy stopped them.

OK, so Jurrjens/Reyes/Campillo isn’t anywhere near Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine… but if Braves fans want to be discussing their Divisional Series opponents in October, you better believe these three will need to at the very least channel and sustain Steve Avery/John Burkett/Denny Neagle for the rest of the season.