Archive for 2008

Joe Crede is (insert your own hypberole here). Since last Wednesday, he’s had the following games:

June 4th, vs KC: 2 for 3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, .326 WPA
June 6th, vs MIN: 4 for 4, 2 HR, .194 WPA
June 7th, vs MIN: 2 for 4, 2 HR, .120 WPA
June 8th, vs Min: 2 for 4, 1 2B, .018 WPA

He’s reached base 12 times in 17 trips to the plate (.705 OBP) and has seven extra base hits (1.800 SLG) since Wednesday. Five days ago, he was slugging .465, but after this stretch, he’s raised that mark 100 points. In four games. In June.

All winter, the White Sox did what they could to trade Crede. With Josh Fields around, Crede coming off a disastrous 2007 season, and heading into his free agent season, he didn’t seem to fit in Chicago’s plans, but they couldn’t find anyone willing to give much up for Crede, so they kept him around. That’s turned out to be a season saving decision, as he and Carlos Quentin have saved the White Sox offense amid struggles from Nick Swisher, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome. Ozzie Guillen might not be very happy with his offense’s consistency, but Joe Crede certainly isn’t going to be the reason the hitting coach gets fired.

Anybody who has seen the Adam Sandler film Happy Gilmore will remember that his character generated power and distance on his drives thanks to a running start. Well, in watching the replay of last night’s Phillies-Braves game I saw rookie outfielder Gregor Blanco do something similar in an at-bat of his. Check it out:

Whatever he did worked as he singled on that pitch but Chris Wheeler said it best, “..that is different!” The Braves, in the Schuerholz era, have been known for their propensity to develop young players and Blanco is no different. He has not posted superstar-caliber numbers but has filled in nicely. In 49 games he has a .269/.379/.343 slash line. His hits have mostly been singles but he does have 5 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR.

His .354 BABIP looks quite high but actually comes in a bit low when stacked up next to his gaudy 27.2% LD rate. He has been in a slump lately, going just 5 for his last 34, but he has hit a ton of line drives this year. His K% suggests he might not be able to sustain his current performance level but his LD rate argues it should be a bit better. Only time will tell what lies in store for “Blankman” (his nickname, not the Damon Wayans film) but at least he won’t have to deal with the evil Shooter McGavin, no matter how ridiculous that swing looked.

FanGraphs now has Win Probability statistics for 1974 onward, with the exception of 1999. They are also now park adjusted with the exception of this current year. I’m working on that.

Roger Clemens leads all pitchers in WPA with 75 wins. Greg Maddux is second with 55 wins.

Barry Bonds leads all batters in WPA with 124 wins. The next best batter is Rickey Henderson with 67 wins.

When the Braves won their nine-hundred consecutive division titles they did so in large part with the help of their stellar pitching rotation. The Big Three, they were called, referring to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz; three aces that could easily headline every other rotation in the league but served as 60% of the same one. Glavine left Atlanta after 2002 and Maddux left after 2003. Smoltz stayed.

Five or six years later, these three are in the twilight of their careers, albeit at different stages of said twilight. Smoltz will undergo season-ending surgery and, despite proclaiming he would make a comeback attempt, recovering from surgery provides ample time to do nothing but think and consider options. Glavine rejoined the Braves but has not been particularly effective and seems to be a shell of his old self. Maddux is still pitching quite well, regardless of his home park, but has hinted that the time has come to watch his son play baseball, rather than vice-versa.

Before Smoltz got hurt, he was continuing his dominance as a starter, posting these numbers:

5 GS, 28 IP, 25 H, 8 BB, 36 K
2.57 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 1.18 FIP, 82.8% LOB

Smoltz, whose career LD% is around 20.2%, was limiting hitters to just 13.9% this year; despite that, his BABIP clocked in at .349. Odd.

Glavine has not been as unlucky as Smoltz and, as his ERA-FIP suggests, it has actually been the other way around:

11 GS, 56.1 IP, 59 H, 29 BB, 34 K
4.47 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, 75.6% LOB

His K/BB has plummeted to just 1.17 and his HR/FB of 15.1 is the highest it has ever been. He lets a lot of guys reach base but strands 3/4 of them. Interestingly enough, his BABIP of .269 is down from the .292-.305 range of the last three years.

Maddux plays in a notorious pitcher’s park in San Diego, but still, his FIP has steadily improved since leaving Atlanta:

13 GS, 77.2 IP, 80 H, 12 BB, 42 K
3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 67.0% LOB

Essentially the opposite of Glavine, Maddux doesn’t let many runners reach base but more of them come around to score. With regards to BABIP, Maddux once mentioned (when discussing DIPS) that it was definitely true that a pitcher’s hits allowed would fluctuate; still, Maddux’s BABIPs of the last six years have been: .290, .290, .296, .295, .313, .295. Not too much fluctuation there! Maddux also has a 0.68 WPA, ranking behind just Jake Peavy as the most from a Padres SP.

I always wanted to see these three retire together so they could all go into the Hall of Fame at the same time. With Smoltz’s impending surgery and the time in which he will be forced to consider his future, this very well may happen. All three are no-doubters, in my eyes, when it comes to the HOF, due to their dominance, individual and team success on the field, and the legendary ambassadorship they have garnered over the years.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens but I am definitely not looking forward to a baseball season in which none of these three will be active.

With the first day of the major league draft behind us, for some people, the countdown can officially begin – 364 days until someone announces that they’ve selected Stephen Strasburg from San Diego State University, potentially with the #1 overall pick. The legend of Strasburg hit new heights on April 11th in a Mountain West Conference game against the University of Utah, when Strasburg recorded 27 outs in a one hit complete game shutout – 23 of them by strikeout. After the game, Strasburg said this:

“I was trying to get the ball in play and throw strikes. I was trying to use the defense as much as possible, but I guess it didn’t work out that way.”

While trying to get the ball in play, he punched out 23 men. That’s how you build a legend. He had already been talked about as a potential top five pick for 2009 back in February, but after a dominating sophomore season for SDSU, he heads into the final twelve month push as the clear frontrunner. Usually, that guy doesn’t end up going #1 overall (Pedro Alvarez was this guy last summer), but unless Strasburg blows out his arm, he’s going to go very high.

His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he has a wipeout slider that is responsible for most of the strikeouts. He also has a classic pitchers frame, and obviously, his performance validates the stuff. There are some other highly talented players who will make a run at being the top overall pick next year, but right now, Strasburg is the Big Brown of this race.

Every week or so I like to take a look at how Tangotiger’s Great Clutch Project is shaping up. For those of you unfamiliar with the project, the gist of it is to find out if fans know which players on their team are “clutch”. You can read all the details over at the Hardball Times and find the daily updated results right here on FanGraphs.

In any case, earlier in the season Tangotiger’s team had a sizable lead over the fans’ choices and it looked like the fans might be in for a rough season. By April 15th, Tangotiger was ahead in every category and was up by nearly 4 wins in WPA and over .200 points in OPS.

One month later on May 15th, the fans’ team had closed the gap considerably and had the lead in some categories including OPS, but still trailed Tangotiger’s team in WPA by .8 wins.

As of yesterday, June 4th, the fans lead in every single major statistic with the exception of home runs, runs batted in, and walks. The fans’ lead in WPA is currently over 2 wins. Here’s what the race has looked like so far:

There’s still a ton of baseball left to be played and the competition is far from over, but after a dubious start, the fans’ team is more than holding its own.

Aaron Rowand, by all accounts, had a career year last season with the Phillies. In 161 games he boasted a slash line of .309/.374/.515, complete with 27 HR, 89 RBI, and 45 doubles. Playing in the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park caused many, myself included, to speculate his performance would drop off the radar when he signed a 5-yr/60 mil deal with the Giants. Going from a career year in a notorious hitter’s park to an equally notorious pitcher’s park would make intuitive bells ring with regards to a regression of sorts.

His numbers at home have not been anywhere near those on the road this year—.777 OPS vs. 1.084 OPS—but those road numbers have been stellar enough to result in an overall slash line of .328/.396/.527.

Rowand has seen his BB%, BABIP, and HR/FB increase each year from 2006 until now, but one number is going in the opposite direction, which is quite puzzling: His percentage of contact has steadily decreased. Not necessarily surprising, this has caused an increase in K%.

His overall statistics have improved from 2006 to today but he is putting his bat on the ball less often; 73.46% of the time as compared to 80.78% in 2006.

2006: 80.78% Contact, .297 BABIP
2007: 78.29% Contact, .348 BABIP
2008: 73.46% Contact, .389 BABIP

This could point towards Rowand fouling the ball off less often; perhaps instead of making noticeably less contact he is either swinging and missing or putting it into play much more often than the past. He might not sustain this level of performance all year long but it is definitely counterintuitive to say that a guy making less contact will increase his production… but I guess that’s why they* call him Aaron “Counterintuitive” Rowand.

*-nobody calls him that.

With the second pick in the draft this afternoon, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez. I got a chance to watch Alvarez play for Team USA a couple of summers ago, and he was as impressive as any amateur hitter I’ve ever seen. His stance and physique brought immediate comparisons to Albert Pujols, though he hit from the left side. The stroke was short and powerful, and while it’s a cliche, the ball jumped off his bat. He hit a ball off the right center field wall that night (off a left-handed pitcher, by the way) that got to the fence in about two seconds. He had homered earlier, pounding a ball 450+ feet, but it was that hit that made you jump out of your chair, because he just destroyed the baseball with his line drive swing. I was surprised the seams didn’t come off.

There were some good hitters in this draft, and while I’m sure the Rays did their homework in coming to the conclusion that Tim Beckham was the right selection for their organization, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we looked back in twelve months and scratched our heads about why there was a question of who the best hitter in this draft was. Pedro Alvarez is a monster at the plate, and he’s the kind of hitter that you can build a championship offense around. Pittsburgh hasn’t seen a hitter with this kind of ability since some guy named Bonds left for San Francisco.

Congratulations to the new regime in Pittsburgh for redeeming draft day, a day that had haunted Pirates fans for the last decade or so. Pedro Alvarez is no Bryan Bullington.

Aaron Harang lost Tuesday night, despite pitching well, continuing his general 2008 theme of solid pitching and receiving next to no run support. The loss to the Phillies dropped him to 2-8 on the season; yet, looking at all of his statistics sans W-L would lead many to believe his record would be MUCH better. In the spirit of unluckiness take a look at Harang’s 2008 stacked up next to Matt Cain‘s 2007 and Brandon Webb’s 2004:

Aaron Harang (2008)
13 GS, 88.2 IP, 94 H, 20 BB, 78 K
2-8, 3.86 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 76.1% LOB
.323 BABIP vs. .313 career BABIP
HR/FB 10.6% vs. 10.2% in 2007 and 10.5% in 2006
2.98 RS/9, 2nd Worst Run Support in NL

Matt Cain (2007)
32 GS, 200 IP, 173 H, 79 BB, 163 K
7-16, 3.65 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 72.9% LOB
.284 BABIP vs. .271 career BABIP
5.5% HR/FB vs. 7.1% in 2006 and 5.9% in 2005
3.51 RS/9, Worst Run Support in NL/MLB

Brandon Webb (2004)
35 GS, 208 IP, 194 H, 119 BB, 164 K
7-16, 3.59 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 71.0% LOB
.295 BABIP vs .293 career BABIP
HR/FB 15.0% vs 15.4% in 2003 (career 13.6%)
4.24 RS/9, 8th in NL

Overall, Cain and Harang seem unluckier due to Webb’s much higher FIP and rank in run support. Still, none of these three deserve the W-L records listed here, and if the Reds don’t start scoring for Harang he could easily surpass Cain in this area of unjust results.

The Reds might not be thrilled that they traded away Josh Hamilton, but they have to be thrilled that they acquired Edinson Volquez. After another terrific outing last night, shutting out the Phillies for seven innings, Volquez has now given up 11 earned runs in his 12 starts this season. That covers 75 innings and works out to a stellar 1.32 ERA, and he’s done the heavy lifting himself, racking up a league leading 91 strikeouts.

This is the most impressive start to a season since Pedro Martinez’s performance in 2000 that might have been the best year any pitcher has ever had. In Pedro’s first 12 starts that year, he threw 91 innings, walked 18, struck out 121, and posted a 0.99 ERA. Opponents hit .160/.223/.214 against him during that stretch. He proved somewhat human the rest of the year, posting a mortal 2.29 ERA in his final 17 starts of the season thanks to allowing 14 home runs, but his 14/163 BB/K ratio during that period of struggle is still hilariously awesome.

Before Pedro, you have to go back to 1988 and John Tudor to find a pitcher who started a season this well. Tudor’s first twelve starts covered 83 1/3 innings and a 1.08 ERA, but they come with a pretty big asterisk. Tudor allowed seven unearned runs during that span, and his walk to strikeout rate was 20/30. Seriously, he posted a 1.08 ERA while striking out 3.24 batters per nine innings. His success was completely based on getting hitters out on balls in play, and if Fangraphs had existed in 1988, we’d have been predicting a pretty severe regression to the mean. It came swiftly, as his next five starts resulted in him giving up 22 runs in 29 innings for a nifty 6.67 ERA.

Volquez isn’t Tudor, however. Volquez has some of the best stuff of any starting pitcher in baseball, and when he’s throwing it for strikes, he’s nearly untouchable. Pedro’s dominance came from his pinpoint command of his nasty fastball and change-up, which Volquez will likely never be able to match. But there’s nothing wrong with being worse than the 2000 version of Pedro Martinez – that just gives him something in common with every other pitcher in history.

Edinson Volquez is having a remarkable start to the ’08 campaign. He’s not this good – no one is – but he’s a terrific talent, and Reds fans should be ecstatic that they’re going to have this guy in their rotation for years to come.