Archive for 2008

I’ve made some changes to the leaderboards. You can no longer display all the rows, but there is a handy export button which will let you export all the rows into either excel or a csv file. If this is a real issue for you, let me know, but I have my reasons for removing the show all rows feature. I’m hoping the export option makes this a non-issue.

I’ve also added a month select feature which will let you filter for any particular month, including the last 7 days, last 14 days, and last 30 days. Now you can know that for the last 7 days, Jay Bruce leads the majors with a 1.06 WPA.

There’s also been some minor changes to the game log pages. I’ve repeated the headers so you can figure out what each column is further down the table. This has always been an issue for me and hopefully the game logs are now considerably more readable. I’ve also added the same export options that are available in the leaderboards.

If you somehow missed it, Marc Hulet has been recapping the 2007 draft for the past week in honor of tomorrow’s 2008 draft. They’re a must read if you want to know how the first few rounds panned out one year later.

National League

• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL First Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL Supplemental
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL Second Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: NL Third Round

American League:

• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL First Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL Supplemental
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL Second Round
• Reviewing the 2007 Draft: AL Third Round

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft today and tomorrow, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Last week I looked at the National League’s first three rounds (plus the supplemental first round). Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key American League third round picks are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

Nick Barnese (Tampa Bay) had an encouraging pro debut in Rookie Ball but the youngster began 2008 in extended spring training, where he will remain until short season leagues get underway shortly after the draft.

Danny Duffy (Kansas City) began the year in extended spring training before moving up to the Midwest League in late May. He has made three starts and has struggled with an 8.49 ERA in 11.2 innings. He has allowed 16 hits and five walks to go along with 18 strikeouts.

Danny Carroll (Seattle) had a great start to the year before hitting the disabled list in late April. He was hitting .339/.413/.429 in 56 at-bats. Carroll had 10 stolen bases in 13 attempts.

Evan Reed (Texas), a college reliever, was shifted to the starting rotation by the Rangers. He is currently pitching in High-A ball and has a 4.64 ERA in 42.2 innings with 47 hits allowed. He has walked 24 batters and struck out 34. Reed made one emergency start at Double-A and did not allow a run in five innings.

Alan Farina (Toronto) began the year working as a tandem starter but that did not work out so he went back to strictly being a reliever. He was recently added to the disabled list, though. Before the DL trip, Farina had a 3.29 ERA in 27.1 innings. He allowed 17 hits and 13 walks. Farina also racked up 37 strikeouts.

Matt Harvey (Los Angeles) did not sign with the Angels and followed through on his commitment to the University of North Carolina.

John Ely (Chicago) is quietly having a nice season. The right-hander has a 3.96 ERA in High-A ball. In 63.2 innings, he has allowed 61 hits, 18 walks and has struck out 60 batters.

Sam Demel (Oakland) currently has a 3.33 ERA at High-A ball in 24.1 innings. He has allowed 18 hits and 14 walks. The former college reliever has struck out 35 batters.

Luke Putkonen (Detroit) has yet to appear for the Tigers this season and is currently in extended spring training. Angel Morales (Minnesota) and Brock Huntzinger (Boston) also in extended spring training.

Ryan Pope (New York) is currently on the disabled list, but he was putting together a nice season in High-A ball. He had a 2.81 ERA in 51.1 innings and had allowed 54 hits and only eight walks. Pope had struck out 36 batters.

Well that is it for a look back at the 2007 draft, so we now need to look to the future. And today just happens to be Draft Day… so head on over to BaseballAmerica.com, MLB.com or BaseballAnalysts.com for some excellent 2008 Amateur Draft coverage.

This morning,, we looked at the six National League second baseman that are all having excellent seasons. Now, we look at those who are doing the opposite.

In 2006, Freddy Sanchez won the National League batting title. In 2008, he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball, posting a .238/.265/.315 line that combines an aggressive approach with no power. Sanchez is pretty clearly a better hitter than this, and he’s a prime candidate for positive regression to the mean, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been killing the Pirates offense for the first two months of 2008.

Earlier in his career, Felipe Lopez had above average power for a middle infielder. During the 2005 season, he posted a .486 slugging percentage, fulfilling the potential that had been put on him since his days as a Blue Jays prospect. That power, however, is clearly gone, and with it has gone his value as a regular player. Now he’s just an easy out with mediocre defense.

Speaking of evaporating power, Tadahito Iguchi was a pretty solid player for the White Sox and Phillies the last three years, doing nothing great but nothing poorly. He was the classic “took nothing off the table” player, where he wouldn’t be the reason you won a title, but he wouldn’t cost you one either. Second baseman don’t age very well, however, and at age 33, Iguchi’s power has disappeared into the sands of time, and now he takes plenty off the table. You can’t even blame the power loss on the move to Petco, as he has more extra base hits at home than on the road. Iguchi just isn’t a starting second baseman anymore.

And, since we’re in the age related collapse category, here’s Jeff Kent. At 40, it’s remarkable that he’s still playing the position, and he’s had an amazing career. That career is pretty much over, though. At .244/.287/.392 with defense that suggests he shouldn’t be handling the keystone position anymore, it’s probably time for Kent to walk away at years end. Very few second baseman last as long as he did, and we shouldn’t be surprised that Father Time has finally come calling for him.

Then, there’s Rickie Weeks, an enigma of a player if ever there was one. His physical skills are obvious, but he’s never been able to put the entire package together in the same season. He’s cut down on his strikeout rate this season, but his walk rate has suffered as well, and his power has regressed from where it was in 2007, and even with the improved contact, he’s a worse hitter. At 25 years old, there’s still time for Weeks to figure things out and become the player that the Brewers want him to be, but more and more, he’s looking like the new version of Jose Cruz Jr.

When I first started working on these posts yesterday, Kaz Matsui was hitting .259/.344/.335, so he qualified for the sub-.700 OPS club that included all the above. But, apparently, he didn’t want to be written up in this post, so he went 4 for 4 last night to raise his season line to .278/.359/.352. That’s still not good, especially for a guy who plays half his games in Minute Maid Park, but since he went out and fought like mad to get himself off the list, I’ll concede to Matsui’s desires and not lump him in with the struggling second baseman any more than I already have.

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Last week I looked at the National League’s first three rounds (plus the supplemental first round). Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key American League second round picks are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

Will Kline (Tampa Bay) had an inconsistent debut after signing out of college and learned in the off-season that he needed labrum surgery. He should return in 2009. Grant Desme (Oakland) has yet to appear in the minor leagues this season. Matt West (Texas), Nevin Griffith (Chicago) and Daniel Rams (Minnesota) are currently in extended spring training.

Sam Runion (Kansas City) remained in extended spring training until the middle of May and was then assigned to the Midwest League. So far in 21.2 innings he has allowed 25 hits and five walks. He has an ERA of 4.57 and has struck out only three batters.

Denny Almonte (Seattle) spent some time early on this year in extended spring training. Since his activation, he has hit .213/.246/.344 in 61 at-bats in the Midwest League. He has two homers, two stolen bases and has walked 3.3 percent of the time, while striking out 43.1 percent.

First baseman Hunter Morris (Boston) spent the baseball season playing for Auburn University and attending class wearing a variety of MLB baseball team hats, including the Chicago White Sox.

John Tolisano (Toronto) led the Gulf Coast League in homers last season as a prep second baseman. This year, he has only one homer in a league where it is tough to hit the long ball. However, he has a line of .274/.350/.405 with 10 doubles and six triples in 190 at-bats. He has walked eight percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 20.4 percent.

Eric Eiland (Toronto) began the year in extended spring training and recently joined the Jays affiliate in the Midwest League. He is hitting .259/.379/.389 with four stolen bases in 54 at-bats. He has walked 16.1 percent of the time, while striking out at a rate of 30.8 percent.

Josh Horton (Oakland) is currently hitting .298/.400/.369 in 198 High-A ball at-bats. The middle infielder has yet to hit a homer or successfully steal a base. He has walked 14.1 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 18.5 percent.

Danny Worth (Detroit) is currently in Double-A and is hitting .251/.326/.402 with four homers and seven stolen bases in 199 at-bats. He has walked 9.2 percent of the time, while striking out 21.3 percent.

Austin Romine (New York) is in A-ball hitting .278/.317/.371 with one stolen base in 97 at-bats. The 19-year-old catcher has walked four percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 16.7 percent.

Tomorrow, Draft Day 2008, I will wrap up this mini-series with a look at the American League’s third round selections from the 2007 draft.

For those who read the title and thought this post had something to do with food, I apologize, it does not. Instead, the spread I speak of refers to the pitch distribution in the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation. Last month, when writing about Shaun Marcum’s hot start, some loyal readers commented that he was one of very few pitchers that threw five different pitches at least 10% of the time. Trying to verify this assertion I discovered that were only two other pitchers that fit this bill: Adam Eaton and Andy Sonnanstine.

It was recently revealed to me that Jesse Litsch joined the 5/~10% club. Catchy title, eh? I named it myself.

Now, not many starting pitchers throw even four different pitches at least 9-10% of the time and the Blue Jays have three of them: Dustin McGowan (4), Jesse Litsch (5), and Shaun Marcum (5). Group the three of them with the steady three-pitch mix of Roy Halladay and the fastball-curveball combo of A.J. Burnett and you have one extremely solid rotation.

Here are their pitch distributions, with velocity/frequency:

Roy Halladay: FA 92.7/45.9, CT 90.5/25.0, CB 78.2/23.6
A.J. Burnett: FA 94.1/66.2, CB 80.5/26.4
Dustin McGowan: FA 95.1/59.2, SL 87.6/19.3, CB 81.4/11.3, CH 86.7/10.1
Jesse Litsch: FA 88.8/17.7, SL 82.2/22.9, CT 85.0/37.5, CB 76.8/12.9, CH 80.0/9.0
Shaun Marcum: FA 86.8/39.0, SL 81.4/15.5, CT 84.5/14.0, CB 74.8/10.0, CH 80.9/21.5

Not only does this rotation mix their pitches effectively but their speeds as well; McGowan’s changeup is the same speed as Marcum’s fastball. Lastly, take a look at their stats:

Roy Halladay: 3.01 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 5 CG, 12 BB, 72 K, 1.51 WPA
A.J. Burnett: 4.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 33 BB, 71 K, 0.17 WPA
Dustin McGowan: 3.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 28 BB, 55 K, 0.72 WPA
Jesse Litsch: 3.05 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9 BB, 33 K, 0.80 WPA
Shaun Marcum: 2.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 22 BB, 67 K, 1.89 WPA

Their “worst” ERA is 4.14 and just one WHIP is over 1.40. Overall, the rotation has contributed 5.09 wins while being a steady and major factor in the success of the team. Perhaps their pitching coach has preached different spreads in order to, as a rotation, keep teams off kilter; whatever it is, though, it definitely seems to be working.

If you’ve taken an introductory math class, you’ve probably seen the bell curve graph that explains how the distribution of things are grouped around the average and thinner at the extremes. National League second baseman have decided to band together and disprove normal distribution in 2008, however.

As a group, they are hitting .267/.335/.415 for a .750 OPS. Normal distribution would suggest that we’d find a cluster of players with an OPS between .700 and .800, but in reality, only one of the 13 qualified second baseman falls in that range – Luis Castillo. The other twelve are split into two distinct groups – tremendous and terrible. This morning, we look at the guys excelling, and tonight, we’ll look at those who are dragging the average down.

We’ve talked about the amazing years Chase Utley and Dan Uggla are having. Both are having historically tremendous seasons for a second baseman, and they’re mortal locks to represent the NL at the all-star game. But behind those two MVP candidates are four pretty good players in their own right.

Orlando Hudson: .303/.372/.503, 0.82 WPA/LI
Brandon Phillips: .287/.336/.529, 0.55 WPA/LI
Kelly Johnson: .299/.362/.495, 0.34 WPA/LI
Mark DeRosa: .297/.384/.449, 0.66 WPA/LI

All of these guys are having seasons that would create a strong case for an all-star bid in any other year. Hudson and Phillips both add terrific defense to their offensive value, while Johnson and DeRosa continue to be the under the radar stars for their respective teams. You really can’t go wrong with any of these six guys, as all of them are having tremendously valuable seasons.

In one of my first posts here at Fangraphs I discussed some odd name similarities amongst players on the Phillies. One I did not mention was that, since 1909 there have only been two major leaguers with the last name of Durbin—JD and Chad—and both are currently on the Phillies; incidentally, they are not related either. JD is pitching in AAA this year but Chad signed a 1-yr/900k deal to pitch for the big club. Through the first two months this low-risk signing has definitely brought with it high reward.

In 23 games, Durbin has a 1.80 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. He has pitched in 35 innings, surrendering just 28 hits, only one of which was a home run. His walks and strikeouts are a tad suspect, 14 BB – 21 K, but opponents are hitting just .221 against him; additionally, despite a career BABIP ~.300, his current mark is .258. Not many runners have been getting on and 86.5% of those who do have been stranded.

What’s different now from a year ago? For starters, his rates of balls in play have changed. Compare his LD/GB/FB:

2007: 15.6% LD/44.0% GB/40.5% FB
2008: 21.4% LD/42.7% GB/35.9% FB

The grounders are very similar but he has traded in a reduced percentage of flyballs for an increase in line drives. A percentage of line drives like that, via the xBABIP tool of LD% + .120, should in theory produce a BABIP close to the .334 range; Durbin’s .258 is much lower. Though the xBABIP is not a good predictive tool for pitchers, mainly because the LD% is not stable, it can be effective when retrospectively analyzing a pitcher’s results. In Durbin’s case it appears he has either been lucky so far or, as The Professor at Rays Index recently hypothesized, the lower BABIP for certain pitchers could be a byproduct of enough movement to make the batters miss the sweet spot.

Durbin has increased slider usage by 12%, meaning 85% of his pitches are fastballs and sliders. As a reliever, conventional wisdom chimes in that he should be able to get away with a lesser repertoire. Whatever he’s doing is working, though, as his 10.15 BRAA ranks 7th amongst all relievers in the game, and 4th in the National League.

Hanley Ramirez has been a star from day one in Florida, putting up remarkably impressive seasons in his first two years with the Marlins and establishing himself as one of the game’s elite young talents. He built on an already strong rookie season last year, lowering his strikeout rate and raising his power, and even with defense that suggests he belongs in the outfield, a .332/.386/.562 season from a 23-year-old who plays half his games in a pitcher’s park is pretty special, and when you toss in the 51 stolen bases, you have a guy who can lay claim as the league’s most versatile offensive weapon.

So, when Ramirez led the surprising Marlins to a first place April with a blistering start, the natural assumption was that this kid was just continuing to develop into a potential hall of fame talent. He hit .324/.400/.595 with eight home runs and nine steals in the first 27 games of the season, which put him on pace to get near an unheard of 50-50 combination in steals and home runs. No one expected him to actually pull it off, but with the way he was progressing as a hitter, people weren’t lining up to bet against him either. There was virtually no ceiling for what Ramirez could accomplish in 2008.

Then came May 1st, and it brought a pretty big dose of reality to Ramirez’s season. Since that day, he’s hitting .257/.355/.343 with one home run and four stolen bases. He has half as many extra base hits in the same amount of plate appearances, as the power has just disappeared. Interestingly enough, Ramirez did something similar a year ago, when he hit .364/.462/.626 in April and .279/.326/.410 in May. For whatever reason (and there probably isn’t one, honestly), he’s come out of the gates charging, but keeps running into a wall around the 30 game mark.

He’s going to bounce, back, however. This kid is too good of a hitter, even with his contact problems, to struggle like this for much longer. He still has some work to do before he can challenge Albert Pujols and Chase Utley for the title of best player in the National League, but the talent is there.

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Last week I looked at the National League’s first three rounds (plus the supplemental first round). Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key American League supplemental first round picks are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

Outfielder Julio Borbon (Texas) was given a major league contract by the Rangers when he was signed and has shown that he has advanced skills. Currently playing at High-A ball, he is hitting .323/.369/.419 with one homer and 22 stolen bases in 198 at-bats. The left-handed batter is also hitting southpaws at a .375 clip. Borbon has walked 5.5 percent of the time and has struck out at a rate of 10.1 percent.

Brett Cecil (Toronto) has been on an even faster track than Borbon. Converted to a starter after being a college reliever, Cecil has thrived, although he has been slowed by shoulder soreness. The lefty is currently at Double-A, after beginning the season in High-A ball where he posted an ERA of 1.74 in 10.1 innings with two walks and 11 strikeouts. At Double-A, he has a 4.63 ERA with 22 hits allowed in 23.1 innings. He has struck out 23 and walked 10.

Sean Doolittle (Oakland) has one of the most surprising bats from the 2007 draft. Everyone knew he could hit, but there were serious questions about the first baseman’s power potential. Those questions have been quieted for now, as Doolittle is at High-A ball hitting .332/.420/.625 with 14 homers in 208 at-bats. He has walked 14.3 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 27.6 percent.

Shortstop Justin Jackson (Toronto) has come back to earth after a scorching April. The raw prep infielder oozes tools but his offensive game still needs polish and he is currently hitting .250/.382/.396 in 164 A-ball at-bats. He has stolen eight bases in 12 tries and is playing excellent defence. He has walked an impressive 15.9 percent of time, but his strikeouts are too high at 33.3 percent.

Matt Mangini (Seattle) was just promoted to Double-A despite average numbers in the California League. He was hitting .265/.376/.431 with six homers in 181 at-bats, certainly not eye-popping numbers for a corner infielder. He has walked 11.3 percent of the time and posted a strikeout rate of 28.7 percent.

Corey Brown (Oakland) has been as advertised as a raw college outfielder with tremendous power and high strikeout rates. Playing at A-ball, Brown has a line of .267/.363/.476 with eight homers in 191 at-bats. He has walked 11.9 percent of the time and has struck out at a rate of 34.6 percent.

Infielder Ryan Dent (Boston) is currently playing in extended spring training and should open the short season in Lowell when play begins in June after the draft. Lefty Nick Hagadone has been shutdown thanks to Tommy John surgery.