Archive for 2008

Scorching starts from unexpected players are great for the game of baseball as they remind us anything can happen. Who expected Edinson Volquez to jump out of the gate like this? Similarly, insane starts from usually great players often hog the media spotlight as well (See: Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Chase Utley). One thing in common for both of these groups is that they obstruct our knowledge or view of great players off to great—albeit not insane—starts.

That’s where Albert Pujols comes in. Arguably the best offensive player in the game today, Pujols has seemingly been lost in the shuffle this season. Perhaps I’ve been watching too many House MD reruns instead of ESPN but, if I recall correctly, the only times Pujols has really been seen in-depth on the channel are when he almost fought Brandon Backe and when he single-handedly took out the Padres battery.

If he was posting average or below average numbers this might make more sense, but, as of right now, Pujols currently has a .366/.486/.644 slash line, a 1.130 OPS, and 14 HR-39 RBI. Could the problem be that consistency is boring? We know Pujols will perform at a high level so it isn’t as meaningful as it would be if, say, Ryan Ludwick was off to a really hot start? As odd as it may be, the consistency=boring aspect of fandom is very true. Not to say fans don’t appreciate the performance but the unexpected players performing great seem to bring the spontaneity that sparks excitement.

So, in honor of the still-just-28 yrs old Pujols, here are his current ranks:

5th in WPA, 2.49
3rd in BA, .366
2nd in OBP, .486
4th in SLG, .644
3rd in OPS, 1.130
3rd in BRAA, 27.72
2nd in REW, 2.75
2nd in WPA/LI, 2.82
1st in BB, 47

Pujols ranks in the top five, in all of baseball, in these categories and, not surprisingly, those in front of him in many of them are: Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Chase Utley, and Josh Hamilton. It’s human nature to like the other stories better than Pujols’s hot start but do not mistake him not being featured in magazines and television shows as often with a decline in performance. He’s still Albert Pujols and, if his BB and K rates are any type of indicator, he’s still improving.

For those of you who don’t browse our post archives from many years ago, you may be interested in knowing that we have a tool where you can enter the text of your article and it will put html tags around the player names linking them back to FanGraphs.

It’s mainly use it internally, but there are some sites such as Baseball Analysts that have been using it on a regular basis for years now.

I made a few updates to the Linkifyer to make it work a little better. It’s not perfect, but it will now link Minor League players in addition to Major League players.

Just copy and paste your article text in the text box, hit the “Link Players Now” button and presto! You now have linked players.

This offseason there was much speculation that the Yankees were going to lose Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera to free agency. All three returned with shiny new contracts. Rivera, widely considered the greatest closer of all time, may be getting up there in age but his current stats would surely disagree.

Last year he experienced what was determined to be his “worst” season as a closer. In 67 games he posted a 3.15 ERA. Oh god that’s terrible! His ERA was the highest it had ever been as a closer and that, combined with his 4 blown saves and age resulted in many wondering what he had left in the tank. Well, he is off to a tremendous start this year and, by all statistical accounts, last year wasn’t as bad as the media made it out to be.

His 2007 FIP came in at 2.65, suggesting his ERA leaned on the unlucky side. He struck out 74 batters in 71.1 IP, walking only 12, which greatly aided his 1.12 WHIP. Additionally, he wasn’t throwing any slower—93.6 mph compared to 93.8 the year before. Take ERA out of the equation and what exactly did Rivera do wrong last year?

Anyways, back to this year. In 23 games Rivera currently has a 0.36 ERA, 1.32 FIP, and 0.52 WHIP. The FIP and WHIP are just about one-half of his 2007 totals. In 25 innings he has given up 11 hits and two walks while striking out 24. His BB/9 of 0.72 is the lowest it has ever been and he has stranded 92.3% of the runners that reach base; his career LOB% is 79.3%.

Batters are hitting just .135 against him with a .191 BABIP. Pizza Cutter discussed Troy Percival’s knack for posting low opponent BABIPs and Dave Studeman commented that it isn’t that unlikely for elite relievers to follow suit. Rivera’s career BABIP is .278 and, since 1997 (when he became the full time closer) he has held it under .280 in seven different seasons.

Rivera’s career rates of balls in play are 16.4% LD/54.2% GB/29.4% FB. This year, he is posting the same 16.4% LD but has traded in seven percent of his grounders for flyballs; flyballs that stay in the park as evidenced by his no home runs allowed.

Interestingly enough, Rivera’s gmLI, which measures the leverage index at the time of his entrance is 1.88, the highest it’s been since 2002. The difficulty level clearly has not phased him yet as his 2.49 WPA dictates a contribution of 2.5 wins in just 23 games.

In order to cope with the loss of two starting pitchers from last year’s club, the Twins imported veteran starter Livan Hernandez to fill innings at a reasonable clip. At this point in his career, though, it was clear that Hernandez wasn’t going to be much more than a pitch to contact innings eater. Well, he’s lived up to that persona and then some.

A guy who posted average strikeout rates in his prime is now transitioning into the second stage of his career as the new Nate Cornejo. His K/9 this year stands at a paltry 2.83, second lowest in baseball among starting pitchers. Only Jon Garland, who we discussed previously, is missing bats with less frequency than Livan Hernandez. In fact, both Garland and Hernandez are posting remarkably low strikeout rates compared to recent history.

Since 1988, only 17 pitchers have tossed 100 or more innings in a season with a K/9 of 3.00 or less, combining to make it happen 22 times. Kirk Rueter was the last to do it, pitching himself out of baseball in 2005 with a 2.10 K/9. The previously mentioned Cornejo did it in 2003, but only lasted 25 innings into the 2004 season before seeing his career end as well. Clearly, this isn’t a list of guys who went on to have long, productive careers after watching their ability to rack up the strikeouts all but disappear.

However, Hernandez has managed to succeed despite the strikeout rate by dramatically cutting down on his walks and keeping the ball in the yard. In all, he’s actually posting a not horrible 4.46 FIP, and while he probably won’t be able to keep his home run rate this low, that he’s not walking anyone should give the Twins hope that he can squeeze together a few more months of useful pitching. Hernandez isn’t a guy you want in your rotation long term, but given the choice between paying Carlos Silva $48 million over four years or paying Hernandez $5 million for one year, it seems pretty clear that Minnesota made the right choice.

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Last week I looked at the National League’s first three rounds (plus the supplemental first round). Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key American League first round picks are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

First overall pick David Price (Tampa Bay) was slowed by an injury early this season and made his first appearance recently and pitched well: In five innings at High-A ball, the southpaw allowed no earned runs on three hits and one walk. He also struck out four. Not bad for a guy coming off a significant layoff. Price then out-dueled future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez, who was making a rehab start. Price may not be long for the Florida State League.

Third baseman Mike Moustakas (Kansas City) is currently at A-ball and is hitting .239/.290/.400 with seven homers in 205 at-bats. He has walked 5.4 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 16.6 percent. Moustakas has hit .220 in the last 10 games but he slammed three homers.

Catcher Matt Wieters (Baltimore) was the player most Pirates fans were hoping for, and for good reason. So far this season in High-A ball he is tearing the cover off the ball with a line of .337/.432/.590 and 12 homers in 166 at-bats. He has walked 14.1 percent of the time and struck out 18.9 percent. Wieters is the top catching prospect playing in the minors right now.

Phillippe Aumont (Seattle) was considered a very raw Canadian prep right-hander but his talent was undeniable. He has been better than advertised so far this season in A-ball. He has a 1.50 ERA in 36 innings and has allowed 23 hits and 11 walks to go along with 35 strikeouts. At the rate Seattle promotes its prospects, Aumont should be on the move any day now.

Beau Mills (Cleveland) wowed scouts with his raw power in his final year of college, but he was also playing against lesser talents in the NAIA (as opposed to NCAA Division 1 baseball). He has struggled somewhat in professional baseball and is hitting .255/.361/.422 with five home runs in 204 at-bats at High-A ball. He has walked 13.9 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 20.3 percent.

Kevin Ahrens (Toronto) has made a smooth transition from high school shortstop to pro third baseman and is holding his own in A-ball. He is currently hitting .266/.341/.399 with one homer in 188 at-bats. He has walked 10.6 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 24.9 percent. He also has 14 doubles and four triples.

J.P. Arencibia, the second of Toronto’s two first round picks, struggled in his junior year of college due to injuries but the catcher is right back on track in 2008. He has a line of .319/.344/.560 with 10 homers and 20 doubles in 207 at-bats. He has walked only 3.5 percent of the time, which could become an issue, and has struck out at a rate of 19.0 percent. His defence has also significantly improved and may be the second best catching prospect in minor league ball right now.

Texas has been cautious with Blake Beavan and he has responded with a 2.84 ERA in 38 innings. He has allowed 32 hits, along with only two walks and 16 strikeouts. Beavan has, though, allowed six home runs in a league where homers don’t come easily.

High school pitcher Rick Porcello (Detroit) slid to the Tigers due to signability concerns. The organization got a gem as a result. The right-hander skipped A-ball and is pitching at High-A ball. So far this season he has an ERA of 2.87 and has allowed 61 hits in 62 innings. He has rates of 5.43 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9 as a 19-year-old. Porcello was roughed up in his last outing but it was the fourth time that he had faced Dunedin in just over a month.

Aaron Poreda (Chicago) is a hard-throwing lefty who has held his own in High-A ball in 2008. He has a 3.08 ERA in 61.1 innings and has allowed 57 hits. He has posted rates of 6.02 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9.

James Simmons (Oakland) was considered an advanced college pitcher with a modest ceiling and that has held true so far in his pro career. He was immediately assigned to Double-A in his 2007 debut and he continued there in 2008 before hitting the disabled list. Currently, he has an ERA of 2.98 in 40 innings. He has allowed 37 hits and eight walks. Simmons has struck out 31.

Ben Revere (Minnesota) was considered an overdraft out of high school. He quieted some of those concerns, though, with a solid debut in which he hit .325 in Rookie Ball. Revere is again out to prove people wrong in 2008 as he is currently hitting .422/.462/.600 in 135 A-ball at-bats. The left-handed batter is also hitting .538 against southpaws. He has walked 10 times and struck out 10 times.

The New York Yankees selected 6-10 right-hander Andrew Brackman even though the organization knew he would need Tommy John surgery. He is expected to miss all of the 2008 season while recovering and should pitch again near the beginning of the 2009 season.

I can remember May 22, 2002 like it was six years ago yesterday as I did not even need to look up gamelogs to remember the very first major league start of Mark Prior. A high school sophomore at the time, I would often use my lunch period to watch day games on either Gameday or MLB TV; on that day I was lucky enough to watch Prior make his Mark. Get it?

Breezing through the Pirates hitters with the greatest of ease, this would begin a five-game stretch in which the Cubs rookie struck out 43 hitters in 28.2 innings. Calm, cool, and collected, his fluid windup provided such an intimidating presence on the mound. On the whole, his rookie season consisted of 147 strikeouts in 116.2 innings; just 38 walks; a 3.32 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and a 1.17 WHIP; and a .230 BAA. He finished seventh in Rookie of the Year voting but, in just 19 starts, had risen almost entirely to the top of the Cubs rotation.

If there were any doubts his 2003 not only erased them but helped make people forget said doubts ever crept into their minds. Finishing 3rd (to Eric Gagne and Jason Schmidt) in Cy Young Award voting, Prior went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. His WHIP went down to 1.10 and he struck out 245 hitters in 211.1 innings. His FIP of 2.47 suggests his ERA was right on the money and he allowed just 15 home runs.

Prior pitched game six of the NLCS where some guy in the crowd prevented a ball caught in foul territory that Moises Alou forgave six years later (Question: Why isn’t Alex Gonzalez criticized more? His play was worse!).

The next season, an injury-riddled one, looked a lot like a slightly poorer version of his rookie year. Check it out:

2002:19 GS, 116.2 IP, 98 H, 14 HR, 38 BB, 147 K, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
2004:21 GS, 118.2 IP, 108 H, 14 HR, 48 BB, 139 K, 4.02 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

In 2005 he missed more time, albeit not as much as the year prior (get it?), and pitched pretty well; though not as well as someone determined to be the next 300-game winner would be expected to pitch. That year he struck out 188 batters in 166.2 innings, posting a 3.67 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP.

Missing most of the next season his actual playing time in 2006 proved disastrous. In nine starts he posted a 7.21 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. His FIP of 6.60, which suggests his ERA may have been a bit high, was still high in its own right. 2006 would also be the first season in which Prior struck out less batters than innings pitched and posted a BB/9 above 3.64. After stranding runners to the tune of 76.7%-79.4% he posted an LOB of just 62.0%.

He missed last season with more injuries and the Cubs decided to let him go. Signing a low-risk deal with the Padres this offseason, hope still existed that Prior could shake the injury-plagued status that accompanies him everywhere these days and be, at the very least, a league average pitcher. This weekend’s news changed everything.

News surfaced this weekend that Prior, still just 27 years of age, would have surgery and miss the entire 2008 season. Often the player associated most with regards to Dusty Baker’s poor handling of pitchers, Prior will again miss significant pitching time due to a faulty shoulder. As Sam Panayotovich points out, it’s a shame because Prior had the abilities to dominate the league at the age of 23; now he’ll be lucky to make 20+ starts in a future season.

When Prior returned from the DL in 2004, Cubs announcers remarked that fans now felt their season had begun with their ace making his return. As my friend Evan Brunell remarked yesterday, “Now you know the season has really begun when ‘Mark Prior out for the season’ hits the newswire.”

Oh, how the tides have turned, and oh how sad of a downfall it has been.

Couple quick updates to the stats pages. Each section now has a header and each section is now linkable. So if you’d like to send someone to the Plate Discipline stats or the Pitch Type stats, you no longer need to tell them to scroll to the bottom of the page. Just click on the header you’d like to link to get get the appropriate link.

And if things look a little weird, just reload the page by hitting F5 or the reload button on your browser.

Riding the coattails of an absolutely scorching start from shortstop Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers found themselves with a 19-14 record on May 13th, their best record so far this season. Furcal got hurt, landed on the DL, and the Dodgers have gone a paltry 8-14 in his absence. Though impossible to say with 100% confidence that their success rests in the hands/bat/glove (depending on the metaphor) of their shortstop he clearly seems to be missed from that lineup.

More of their struggles can be attributed to the starting rotation. Take a look at these SP/RP splits:

Starters: 13-23, 4.43 ERA, 307 IP, 113 BB, 217 K, 1.48 WHIP
Relievers: 14-5, 3.08 ERA,178.1 IP, 67 BB, 161 K, 1.28 WHIP

Need some more? How about these:

Starters: -1.22 WPA, -5.95 BRAA, 1.92 K/BB
Relievers: 1.55 WPA, 24.12 BRAA, 2.40 K/BB

Derek Lowe and Brad Penny have underperformed thus far and the good starts from Chad Billingsley and rookie Hiroki Kuroda have not been able to cancel them out.

Interestingly enough, one of their top guns out of the bullpen this year has been Chan Ho Park. Yes, that Chan Ho Park, the one who elicits “he’s still around??” reactions. Other than Hong-Chih Kuo, Park has the highest BRAA of the entire pitching staff.

In 16 games, including one start, Park is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA; however, his 5.14 FIP suggests he has been very lucky. In fact, just JC Romero of the Phillies has a bigger ERA-FIP differential in the league. He has surrendered 32 hits in 33.2 innings, both walking and striking out 16 batters. Despite just a .252 BAA and .262 BABIP, the walks have helped lead to a 1.43 WHIP. It does not seem to matter how many runners Park lets reach base, though, because he currently has an 89.9% LOB. Excluding his one start that numbers jumps up to 93.6%, placing him sixth in the National League amongst relievers with at least 20.0 IP.

Park is throwing harder as well. Comparing 2005-2006 to 2008—he only made one start in 2007—his fastball is up over two mph; his slider is up over two mph; his curveball has increased by one mph; and his changeup is up over two mph.

ERA is a fickle stat for relievers since a couple bad outings can provide a season-long taint on the number. It is not very likely Park will sustain such a high percentage of stranded runners, meaning his success has its best chance of continuing if less runners reach base. Since he is not getting hit around too much this decrease in baserunners needs to come primarily from his walks. If he manages a 1.43+ WHIP all season it is more likely the LOB% will drop, more runners will score, and his ERA-FIP discrepancy won’t be as high because both will be in the below average range.

Sorry, I couldn’t help myself – the desire for a bad pun was just too strong. But, yes, this post is about Chris Coste, the 35-year-old journeyman Triple-A catcher who is trying to convince the Phillies to never send him back down, and doing a pretty good job of it. After hitting his fifth home run of the season last night, Coste now has the highest OPS (.999) of any catcher with at least 100 plate appearances in 2008. Among that group, he’s third in batting average, second in on base percentage, and first in slugging, giving the Phillies an offensive boost from behind the plate.

This isn’t the first time Coste has blistered major league pitching either. He hit .328/.376/.505 in 213 plate appearances with Philadelphia back in 2006, and his career major league line now stands at .316/.363/.498. Since making his major league debut at age 33, Coste has been worth approximately three wins more than an average catcher. That’s a huge contribution from a guy who was living the Crash Davis persona for a decade.

Realistically, though, no one could have seen this coming, and that it continues is one of the more improbable story lines in baseball. Despite being a three time All-American for Division III Concorida College, Coste couldn’t find an organization willing to give him a minor league job, so he hooked on with the independent Frontier League, where he played from 1996 to 1999. He did enough to earn a minor league contract from the Indians in 2000, and he kicked around various Double-A and Triple-A affiliates for the next six years. He never stood out as anything spectacular, posting a career .286/.335/.421 mark. He was a serviceable minor league catcher, but nothing more. In fact, in 2006, he was hitting .177/.236/.272 for Scranton before getting the call to Philadelphia to make his debut. When you see a 33-year-old posting a .508 OPS in Triple-A, you’re not thinking that he’s going to get to the majors and start hitting from day one.

But that’s exactly what Coste has done. Since arriving, he’s done his best Gary Carter impression, and his offensive performance as a big leaguer would fit right into any Hall of Fame catcher’s resume. Coste certainly isn’t going to end up in Cooperstown, but he’s hitting like someone who deserves to be remembered as more than the 33 year old rookie. His story is the kind of thing they make movies out of, but they can worry about that when he’s done. Right now, it looks like it will be a while before he’s ready to hang up his spikes.

I’ve updated player searching. I think it works a lot better now and hopefully you will too. Minor league and major league players now appear on one page and the search algorithm is now much better at picking up misspelled player names and inexact matches.