Archive for 2008

Lance Berkman is having a remarkable season. He hit his 15th home run of the season (into McCovey Cove to boot) in the 9th inning last night, giving the Astros an 8-7 win over San Francisco and continuing to push the surprising Astros into contention in the N.L. Central. Berkman is carrying Houston’s offense, hitting .391/.472/.808 and leading the majors in WPA at 4.13. He’s on a 14 game hitting streak during which he’s hitting .556. His BRAA (32.45) is almost equal to the combined total of the #1 (Carlos Quentin, 18.43) and #2 guys (Grady Sizemore, 14.27) in the American League. He’s playing at another level right now.

However, Berkman did something else yesterday as well that might put all the other numbers to shame – he stole his seventh base of the season, tying his total from last year and putting him three away from his career high. He’s never stolen double digit bases in a season before, but right now, he’s on pace for 28. He’s tied for second among Astros players in steals with Kaz Matsui, and is ahead of notable speedsters Brandon Phillips and Johnny Damon among others.

Apparently, Berkman isn’t satisfied with creating runs by pounding the ball over the wall or wearing pitchers out by drawing walks, but he has to advance himself once he gets on base as well. I think we’ll all be pretty shocked if he keeps running as often as he is now, but considering how well he’s doing everything right now, let’s not put anything past Lance Berkman.

There has not been too much written about the Rockies across the non-team specific blogosphere. Troy Tulowitzki is injured for a while, the back end of their rotation is a combined -36.58 BRAA, and the only section of the team with a positive WPA is the bullpen. Entering the season everyone envisioned Jeff Francis as the ace of the staff; after all, his post-season was quite impressive. Suffice it to say, Francis has had a rocky start…get it? It’s a pun because he plays for the… nevermind.

Entering tonight’s action Francis is 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP. His K/BB has plummeted an entire point, from 2.62 a year ago to 1.63 today. This has all resulted in a -0.50 WPA.

Fortunately, for Rockies fans, Aaron Cook has been performing above and beyond expectations. Through eight starts, Cook is posting the following numbers:

6-1, 2.26 ERA, 55.2 IP, 17 BB, 23 K, 1.13 WHIP

Here are some of his more advanced stats:

3.89 FIP, 1.35 K/BB, 3.72 K/9, 78.2 LOB%, 1.42 WPA, 11.84 BRAA

Based on his home runs and walks allowed, as well as strikeouts, his ERA should be closer to 3.89 than the Maddux-like 2.26 it currently rests at. He has a very low K/9; his 3.72 ranks as the 6th lowest in baseball. His WPA of 1.42 ranks as the seventh best among starting pitchers. Additionally, his 11.84 BRAA comes in at fourth best in the National League.

Cook currently has a BABIP against of .243, which is right on par with his 13.6 LD%. The problem, however, exists in that very low rate of line drives. It simply is uncharacteristic of the Aaron Cook we have come to know and love. His career balls-in-play rates, which do not suffer/benefit from fluctuations, come in at 18.5 LD/61.4 GB/25.0 FB; as of right now it is 13.6 LD/58.3 GB/23.1 FB. It really is not very likely that he will maintain this rate.

Overall, though, Cook has gone 6+ innings in all eight of his starts, allowing a maximum of four earned runs just once; that game was his first of the season.

In his last five games he has an average Game Score of 61 and is holding opponents to a .231/.286/.346 slash line. He may not keep this up all season but Cook has definitely made up for the shortcomings of Francis thus far.

Mike Mussina has been one of the most reliable, consistent pitchers in baseball for the last 17 years. He’s tossed over 3,400 innings in his career, racked up 256 wins, and is putting together an argument for Hall of Fame induction. And, at 39 years old, he’s still ticking, helping to keep the Yankees rotation stable despite the injuries and struggles of the young hurlers on the staff.

However, Mussina clearly doesn’t have the same arsenal he had in his prime. Take a look at his velocity of each pitch type for the last three years:

Fastball: 88.6 MPH, 87.1 MPH, 84.9 MPH
Slider: 82.8 MPH, 82.1 MPH, 80.5 MPH
Curveball: 77.2 MPH, 75.3 MPH, 72.,4 MPH
Change: 72.0 MPH, 72.1 MPH, 69.8 MPH

In the last year, he’s lost about two miles per hour off each pitch in his arsenal, and he’s down almost four miles per hour on his fastball from two years ago and five miles per hour on his curveball in that same time frame. As he’s aged, his velocity has deserted him, and his average fastball is now the fifth slowest in baseball (among non-knuckleballers), behind only Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Greg Maddux, and Paul Byrd. His change-up is the slowest in baseball, four miles per hour slower than Moyer’s, who comes in at #2 on the list. He just doesn’t have the stuff he used to have, and with this velocity, he’s had to reinvent himself in order to stay successful.

So that’s exactly what he’s done. Through the first 50 innings of 2008, he’s issued just six bases on balls, a 1.09 BB/9 that ranks #3 among major league starters. He’s also posting a 48.2% ground ball rate, the highest mark he’s posted since it began being tracked by BIS in 2002. With his stuff deteriorating, he’s no longer able to rack up the strikeouts like he used to, so Mussina has essentially turned himself into a strike-throwing ground ball guy who lets hitters get themselves out by attacking the strike zone. It’s a diversion from the path he took to greatness, but considering his current skills, it’s an adjustment he had to make, and one that has worked well so far.

His FIP stands at a respectable 4.50, making him a solid middle of the rotation starter and an asset to the Yankees rotation. Considering that many New Yorkers were willing to write Mussina off after his struggles last season, it’s a testament to his understanding of his own limitations that he’s been able to find a new way to succeed even after his physical talents have eroded. Mussina is one of the best pitchers of our lifetime, and he’s continuing to find ways to get hitters out, no matter what kind of stuff he takes to the hill each day.

The San Diego Padres rescued Scott Linebrink off the scrap heap back in 2003 and he rewarded them in turn with roughly four years of valuable and reliable relief work. However, the greatest value that the Padres received from Linebrink’s tenure may have come from the 2007 trade that sent him to Milwaukee.

The Padres received three mid-level prospects from the Brewers in return for Linebrink’s services and one of those pitchers – Will Inman – is proving that he may turn out to be a steal. The other two are not half bad either.

Inman was originally selected out of a Virginia high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Prior to the trade, Inman had always posted solid minor league numbers but at 6-1, 210 pounds he does not possess an ideal pitcher’s frame, which causes him to get overlooked. Since the trade, though, Inman has made sure people cannot overlook him any longer.

In seven starts in 2007 after the trade, Inman posted a 4.17 ERA in seven starts (41 innings) at Double-A San Antonio, which is a pretty good hitters’ park. He allowed 7.24 H/9 and posted an 8.78 K/9 rate. He struggled a bit with his control and allowed 4.17 BB/9.

Inman, 21, has been even better in 2008 with a return to San Antonio. In eight starts (43.2 innings) he has allowed 5.98 H/9 and has posted a 9.07 K/9 rate. Walks are still a bit of an issue with a rate of 3.71 BB/9. Over his four-year career, the right-hander now has an impressive line of 6.50 H/9, 2.80 BB/9, and 10.42 K/9. He should see Triple-A soon, and possibly the majors by the end of the season.

Southpaws Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison were the other pitchers obtained by San Diego in the trade. Thatcher is the only one of the trio who has already appeared in the majors for San Diego. He was originally signed out of an independent baseball league after he had a poor final season at Indiana State University in 2004.

Once traded to San Diego, Thatcher, 27, posted a 1.04 ERA in eight Triple-A games and was called up to the majors. In his first taste of Major League Baseball, the lefty posted a 1.29 ERA in 22 games (21 innings) and allowed 5.57 H/9. He opened the 2008 season in the San Diego pen but was recently shipped back to Triple-A after posting a 6.75 ERA in 16 games (17.1 innings) and allowing 12.98 H/9.

Garrison, 21, was originally selected by Milwaukee out of a New Jersey high school in the 10th round of the 2005 amateur draft. He posted solid numbers through A-ball, as well as a 2.79 ERA in High-A Lake Elsinore after the trade in 2007. In 42 innings, he allowed 6.68 H/9 and posted rates of 1.29 BB/9 and 6.00 K/9.

In 2008 at Double-A San Antonio, Garrison has a 4.30 ERA in six starts (29.1 innings) and has allowed 8.90 H/9. He has struggled with his rates at 3.99 BB/9 and 5.52 K/9 and is probably headed for a future as a middle reliever or LOOGY.

So what did Linebrink do for Milwaukee? After he provided three straight seasons of 70-plus appearances between 2004 and 2006, Linebrink appeared in 27 games (25.1 innings) for Milwaukee and won two games, while losing three. He posted a 3.55 ERA. After that, though, the former second round pick of the San Francisco Giants filed for free agency and signed a lucrative contract with the Chicago White Sox.

In other words, the Brewers traded three pitchers – two of whom are left-handed – who could all easily pitch in a major league bullpen for 25 innings of middle relief. On the plus side, the Brewers will receive a supplemental first round pick (35th overall) and a second round pick (54th overall) for losing Linebrink to Chicago. Regardless, chalk one up for the Padres. If only they could draft as well as they trade.

Last year, the Texas Rangers had arguably the worst statistical pitching rotation in all of baseball, perhaps one of the worst in a long time. Their numbers?

Brandon McCarthy: -1.03 WPA, -7.63 BRAA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.74 FIP, 1.23 K/BB
Kameron Loe: -1.65 WPA, -19.81 BRAA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.66 FIP, 1.39 K/BB
Kevin Millwood: -1.81 WPA, -15.99 BRAA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.55 FIP, 1.84 K/BB
Robinson Tejeda: -2.45 WPA, -27.15 BRAA, 1.78 WHIP, 6.19 FIP, 1.15 K/BB
Vicente Padilla: -2.84 WPA, -22.51 BRAA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.26 FIP, 1.42 K/BB

The rotation cost the rangers about 10 wins on the seasons and finished 93.1 BRBA (Batting Runs Below Average). The lowest WHIP of the group came in at 1.59 and the highest K/BB was 1.84. Additionally, any rotation in which the top FIP is 4.55 is less than stellar. How are the Rangers pitchers performing this year?

Well, Millwood and Padilla are still there but GM Jon Daniels turned in his hand and asked for three new cards in the forms of Kason Gabbard, Jason Jennings, and, gulp, Sidney Ponson. Here are their numbers:

Kason Gabbard: 0-1, 2.12 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 0.79 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 0.80 WPA
Kevin Millwood: 2-3, 4.88 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.55 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP, 0.41 WPA
Vicente Padilla: 5-2, 3.23 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.84 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 0.27 WPA
Sidney Ponson: 2-0, 3.16 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.33 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP, 0.02 WPA
Jason Jennings: 0-5, 8.56 ERA, 8.07 FIP, 0.67 K/BB, 1.94 WHIP, -1.20 WPA

Though the numbers appear to be better in the early going, just about anything would be better than the numbers from last season.

In just four starts, Ponson has a very solid 3.89 FIP and, an about league average 1.40 WHIP. Overall, though, his 0.02 WPA suggests his efforts have essentially evened out to just about no contribution. Padilla has the highest K/BB and an improved 1.42 WHIP; however, his FIP implies his ERA has been very lucky. Gabbard and Millwood have contributed a good amount, via WPA, but their efforts are cancelled out by Jason Jennings’ terrible performance.

Overall, their rotation this year has an aggregate +0.30 WPA compared to the -9.78 WPA from a year ago. Lastly, here are the rotation averages:

2007: 4.82 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 1.41 K/BB, -1.96 WPA
2008: 4.94 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, 1.25 K/BB, +0.06 WPA

Take out Jason Jennings and his awful statistics and the 2008 rotation looks a whole lot better, but in the early going, it appears to be very comparable to last season. It is too early to say the rotations are definitively similar in quality but they are currently below average statistically, and Sidney Ponson has not yet imploded.

In his excellent Ten Things I didn’t Know Last Week column, Dave Studeman speculates on the odds of two fans sitting next to each other catching a foul ball. I was asked about the LA Times article (where two fans sitting next to each other caught back-to-back foul balls) in an e-mail last week and the math to solve this problem became a huge topic of conversation over my weekend.

We previously calculated the odds of catching a foul ball/home run at about 1 in 1000, assuming that everyone in the stadium had access to all foul balls and home runs (which isn’t exactly true).

So let’s say that each foul ball hit into the stands is an independent event and they’re randomly distributed. And let’s say that where you’re sitting you have the ability to catch a foul ball. And let’s say there are 10,000 fans sitting in an area where you can catch a foul ball.

Your odds of catching any one foul ball hit into the stands is 1/10000. Now if there are 30 balls hit into the stands each game, your odds of catching a foul ball have increased to 1-((9999/10000)^30). Which is about 1 in 333.

Now your odds of catching 2 consecutive foul balls in a game is considerably worse and we’re going to assume that both these foul balls are catchable. (Dave Studeman in his evaulation does not assume that and that’s a major difference). Catching two consecutive foul balls would be (1/10000)^2, which is 1 in 100,000,000. But you have 30 chances, so the odds are 1-((99999999/100000000)^30), which is about 1 in 3,333,333.

Those are your odds of catching two foul balls in a row at any one particular game if all things were completely random.

Update: The Numbers Guy over at the Wall Street Journal did a piece on this earlier in the week and Carl Bialik (The Numbers Guy) is who sent me the initial e-mail.

The Washington Nationals rotation has a 4.86 ERA, a -0.77 WPA, and a -9.17 BRAA. That’s not very good, and from a look at those numbers, you’d probably think Washington needs to find some better starting pitchers. But if you look closer, you’ll see a very interesting breakdown.

Washington’s #1-#4 Starters

Odalis Perez: 3.71 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 0.41 WPA, 4.82 BRAA
Shawn Hill: 3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 0.22 WPA, 3.18 BRAA
Tim Redding: 3.51 ERA, 4.56 FIP, -0.10 WPA, -1.38 BRAA
John Lannan: 3.74 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 0.65 WPA, 3.69 BRAA

Totals: 3.63 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.18 WPA, 10.31 BRAA

Washington’s #5 Starters

Matt Chico: 6.87 ERA, 5.19 FIP, -1.03 WPA, -9.61 BRAA
Jason Bergmann: 10.45 ERA, 6.67 FIP, -0.42 WPA, -5.18 BRAA
Mike O’Connor: 24.30 ERA, 10.21 FIP, -0.29 WPA, -4.68 BRAA

Totals: 8.67 ERA, 6.21 FIP, -1.74 WPA, -19.47 BRAA

In just over 50 innings of work, the three guys the Nationals have used to fill their final rotation spot have erased, and then some, the good work done by their teammates. Despite their overall rotations performance, Jim Bowden and company should be quite proud of the fact that they’ve assembled four useful starters for essentially nothing – Lannan, Perez, and Redding were acquired for a combined $1.25 and a couple of signed baseballs. Only Hill (6th round pick in 2000) required an asset to bring in, and let’s be honest, a 6th round pick isn’t the most valuable property in baseball.

They won’t win a championship with Perez-Hill-Lannan-Redding, but they’re the epitome of what you can do with freely available talent when you’re willing to take some flyers on guys with question marks. Along with that comes the downside of what they’ve gotten from their #5 starters, however. Washington has done well filling the front four spots in their rotation, but they’re going to have to do some more work to get a fifth starter who won’t cancel out all the work already done.

One of my favorite features here at Fangraphs is the data on minor leage players. With the recently added “items on screen” drop down we can now easily update and maintain our own minor league database. Delving into the statistics I decided to look at the top hitters and pitchers in both the International and Pacific League; both contain AAA affiliates. This is not to suggest these players deserve promotions or that their major league counterparts should be demoted, but rather just a simple scan of who has been producing at a high level in areas many of us tend not to follow.

International League Hitters
Mike Hessman, Det, 1B: .308/.392/.747, 1.138 OPS, 17 HR-30 RBI
Brad Eldred, CHW, 1B: .298/.348/.672, 1.019 OPS, 12 HR-36 RBI
Dewayne Wise, CHW, OF: .351/.396/.613, 1.011 OPS, 7 HR-15 RBI, 12 SB
Jay Bruce, Cin, OF: .352/.391/.613, 1.004 OPS, 7 HR-30 RBI
Darnell McDonald, Min, OF: .336/.392/.600, .992 OPS, 4 HR-26 RBI

International League Pitchers
Dan Giese, NYY: 2.27 FIP, 39.2 IP, 9 BB, 35 K
Charlie Morton, Atl: 2.58 FIP, 48.0 IP, 15 BB, 39 K
David Purcey, Tor: 2.82 FIP, 44.2 IP, 16 BB, 52 K
Matt Maloney, Cin: 2.96 FIP, 41.1 IP, 13 BB, 37 K
Eddie Bonine, Det: 2.97 FIP, 48.1 IP, 6 BB, 29 K, 7-0 W-L

Pacific League Hitters
Nelson Cruz, Tex, OF: .336/.471/.700, 1.171 OPS, 11 HR-32 RBI, 11 SB
Matt Brown, LAA, 3B: .365/.416/.679, 1.095 OPS, 8 HR-28 RBI
Terry Tiffee, LAD, 3B: .430/.474/.620, 1.094 OPS, 3 HR-33 RBI
Russell Branyan, Mil, OF: .54/.434/.638, 1.072 OPS, 8 HR-26 RBI
James D’Antona, Ari, 3B: .421/.430/.627, 1.057 OPS, 4 HR-22 RBI

Pacific League Pitchers
Brian Stokes, NYM: 2.65 FIP, 38.0 IP, 14 BB, 38 K, 5.68 ERA
Mike Burns, CHC: 2.69 FIP, 35.0 IP, 6 BB, 34 K
Carlos Alvarado, LAA: 2.86 FIP, 38.2 IP, 14 BB, 37 K
Ryan Feierabend, Sea: 3.11 FIP, 43.0 IP, 10 BB, 30 K
RA Dickey, Sea: 3.20 FIP, 42.2 IP, 6 BB, 25 K

The most intriguing player here is Jay Bruce, who has been performing at a very high level; you might remember the dismay of many fans in Cincinnati when news broke of Dusty Baker’s decision to send Bruce to the minors in favor of Corey Patterson. Some of the others here, such as Cruz, Hessman, Eldred, and Wise, have seemingly been given the AAAA tag; they may get chances here and there but are likely to maintain tremendous production in the minors and below average production in the majors.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens but I would not be surprised if any of these players is called up to the big club at some point in the near future due to poor production or injuries.

With the offense struggling and a need for some power, the Mariners recently turned their right field job over to young slugger Wladimir Balentien. No one has ever questioned Balentien’s raw power, as he can hit a baseball a country mile, but his approach at the plate has been suspect over the years. He’s made a lot of strides, cutting down on his strikeouts and laying off of breaking balls down and away, but he’s still an aggressive, swing-from-the-heels kind of guy.

Since coming to Seattle, he’s hit .212/.255/.486 thanks to an odd line where four his 11 hits have left the yard, but he’s struck out 19 times in 52 at-bats while only drawing three walks. Wily Mo Pena is the personification of this skillset, and while Balentien has a better approach to hitting than WMP, that’s the kind of production he’s giving the Mariners right now. However, Wily Mo isn’t the only low average, low on base, high slugging guy running around.

I ran Baseball Reference’s Play Index to get a list of all players in the last 20 years with at least 300 plate appearances, a batting average of less than .250, and an ISO of greater than .250. This gave me 27 guys who have posted a higher isolated slugging percentage than batting average in a given season, and Balentien looks like he has the potential to join that group. There are some of the usual names on that list that you would guess, such as Mark McGwire, Rob Deer, and Adam Dunn, all of whom are known for being all or nothing hitters. But there are also some guys on the list I wouldn’t have guessed, such as:

1997 Jose Cruz Jr, who .251/.315/.499 in his rookie season with Seattle and Toronto. When you think of big power guys, Cruz Jr doesn’t exactly spring to mind, but he’s actually not a bad comparison for Balentien, although the Mariners are certainly hoping to get more from this young RF than they did from the last one.

2004 Jose Valentin, who put up a .216/.287/.473 line. Not surprisingly, Valentin is the only middle infielder on this list, as the power/strikeout combination isn’t one you generally find playing a premium defensive position.

1996 Willie Greene, who had one of the hilarious lines of all time. 29 extra base hits, with 19 of them being home runs compared to just 5 doubles in 287 at-bats. It’s almost unheard of to get four times as many home runs as doubles in a single season, but Green pulled it off.

Overall, these guys were all productive in the seasons that they posted the ISO higher than their average, as its hard to hit for that much power and not be at least sort of useful, but it’s also not a list of guys who had long, sustained careers. Balentien’s going to want to work on cutting down the strikeouts if he wants to be more than a curiosity on a similar list in 20 years.

To say the San Diego Padres have had a lot of bad luck drafting in the first round this decade would be an understatement. In the eight drafts so far, the club’s No. 1 picks have produced one Major League starter and one Top 10 prospect. The other six have crashed and burned or been derailed by injuries.

In 2000, the club began the decade by using its ninth overall selection to choose Mark Phillips out of a Pennsylvania high school. The hard-throwing lefty had control and command issues that he was unable to overcome. He was eventually shipped out to the New York Yankees, along with Bubba Trammell, in exchange for Rondell White.

2001 came along and saw the club draft infielder Jake Gautreau out of Tulane University with the 14 overall selection. He was unable to sustain his production in the upper levels of the minor leagues and was eventually traded to Cleveland for another disappointing former No. 1 pick in Corey Smith. Neither player has appeared in the majors.

In 2002 the club made its best selection of the decade when it took shortstop Khalil Greene out of Clemson University with the 13th overall pick of the draft. As we all know, Greene has gone on to be a solid, albeit unspectacular, regular at the Major League level (.252/.309/.435 line).

The club’s luck lasted just one year as it chose right-handed starter Tim Stauffer out of the University of Richmond the next season with the fourth overall pick. Stauffer was damaged goods and had a wonky shoulder. The good news is that he fessed up to the club before it handed him an obscene signing bonus. The bad news is that he told them after they wasted the fourth overall pick on him.

The club had the coveted first overall pick in 2004 but went the signability route and avoided some of the more talented (and expensive players) and took a local high school shortstop named Matt Bush. He proved within two years that he could not hit professional pitching so he took his plus-arm strength to the mound. In less than a month, though, he blew out his elbow and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Tommy John surgery also derailed 2005 first round pick Cesar Carrillo. The right-handed pitcher was taken 18th overall out of the University of Miami. He’s in Extended Spring Training working his way back from the injury.

The Padres organization disappointed some people with its 2006 first round pick. The club chose infielder Matt Antonelli out of Wake Forest University with the 17th overall pick. He was viewed by many as a “safe pick,” or in other words an advanced college hitter with a modest ceiling for development. Antonelli then quieted the complainers with an outstanding 2007 while playing in some very good hitters’ ballparks. He’s struggling at Triple-A this season.

The Padres have to be pretty sick of paying for Tommy John surgeries. Less than a month after beginning his career, the club’s 2007 No. 1 pick, Nick Schmidt, succumbed to the surgery. The 23rd overall selection was viewed as another “safe pick” with a limited ceiling. Those players are supposed to get to the majors quickly, but Schmidt’s time line will be set back one to two years because of the injury.

Yeah, it’s a pretty depressing list when you look at it all together. Maybe 2008 will be better when the club has another shot at the 23rd overall pick. It can’t get much worse.