The Phillies and first-year GM Ruben Amaro Jr raised eyebrows this offseason when they quickly signed Raul Ibanez to a 3-yr/$31.5 mil contract. Many analysts, myself included, jumped all over the move, questioning Ibanez’s performance and productivity in relation to the terms of the deal while simultaneously comparing the former Mariner to Phillies stalwart Pat Burrell. One critique of the signing that initially took a backseat to the performance comparison involves the surplus of similar players on the market. With at least six corner outfielders eligible for free agency, especially in this economy, Ibanez could have been had for a much lower salary.

According to former Phillies GM Pat Gillick, this might not be true. While hanging around Clearwater, the Phillies home for Spring Training, Gillick remarked that the Cubs had a strong interest in Ibanez and were pushing pretty hard. Lou Piniella and Ibanez shared a solid relationship dating back to Sweet Lou’s managerial tenure in Seattle and was extremely high on the left-handed left-fielder.

The Cubs desired a left-handed outfielder and apparently Ibanez topped their list. If this is true, then the Phillies acted similarly to the Braves with Derek Lowe. Frank Wren and Co. jumped on Lowe, perhaps even paying him a bit more, when they heard the Phillies were seriously considering moving Brett Myers to free up some payroll space. It would also mean that, if the Phillies were also sold on Ibanez as the best choice, the rationale behind the years/dollars is not as transparent as before. Don’t get me wrong, I still consider it a very poor deal due to his age, fielding, and potentially declining offense, but it now makes more sense why they signed him so early in the offseason: they felt he was the guy and learned of a serious competitor. In my eyes they are wrong, but at least their reasoning is a bit more known despite being overly incorrect.

Gillick also touched on the Pat Burrell situation, implying that the Phillies had plenty of interest in his return, but debates raged over specific contractual terms. The actual average annual value was not the problem, but rather the years. Given that the Phillies have stated they offered Burrell a 2-yr/$22 mil deal, I’m guessing Burrell wanted 3-yr/$33 mil. Halfway through the season that may actually have been realistic as an extension, but given all of the factors mentioned at the top of this post, it simply wasn’t going to happen in the free agent market.

The big issue arose when the Phillies signed Ibanez to the above-market contract and then witnessed the market collapse to the point that Burrell could only coax the Rays for 2-yr/$16 mil. He is more productive than Raul, and younger, and signed for half the total dollars. The problem here isn’t necessarily that the Phillies hopped on a player very early in an odd market, but that they felt Ibanez was such a superior option than everyone else. Had they practiced some due diligence, they not only could have brought back the more productive player, but they could have done so at a vastly discounted price.

Yesterday, David announced that the UZR data presented here on the site has been updated to include outfield arm ratings and double play ratings for infielders. So, today, I figured I’d take a look at some of the guys who have been standouts in those categories. This afternoon, we’ll look at outfield arms.

ARM ratings, like UZR, vary a bit from year to year. Because of that, it’s generally better to look at more than one season’s worth of data to get an idea of how much value a player is adding with his throwing ability from the outfield. So, here are the leaders in ARM over the past three years:

Alfonso Soriano – +25.6 runs
Jeff Francoeur – +23.4 runs
Ichiro Suzuki – +12.5 runs
Nick Markakis – +10.8 runs
Michael Cuddyer – +10.4 runs

and now the trailers over the same time period.

Brian Giles – -19.5 runs
Juan Pierre – -16.3 runs
Jermaine Dye – -13.5 runs
Shawn Green – -12.3 runs (and he didn’t play in ’08!)
Adam Dunn – -12.2 runs

As you can see, the spread in value of a strong arm versus a weak arm is significantly smaller than it is with range. The very best arm is +45 runs compared to the very worst arm over a three year period. In range, the spread is almost 100 runs from best (Carl Crawford) to worst (Brad Hawpe). So, while arm strength is nice, it is simply not as important as range.

That doesn’t mean that it doesn’t have any impact, though. Over the last three years, Soriano is averaging +8.5 runs per season with his arm. That’s almost a win per year in value. Likewise, Francouer, Markakis, Ichiro, and Cuddyer get significant value from their ability to gun down runners and hold runners from advancing.

These numbers cover 2006 to 2008. But, what if we go back in time, and look at 2003 to 2005?

At the top, we see Jim Edmonds at +21.8 runs, followed by Richard Hidalgo (+17.9), Alex Rios (+17.1), Rocco Baldelli (+16.8), and Ichiro again (+14.0). The noodle arms are led by Juan Pierre (-18.4), Jason Bay (-13.8), Tike Redman (-13.7), Brady Clark (-13.2), and Johnny Damon (-13).

Pierre, as you may have noticed, shows up in the bottom of both three year periods. Indeed, since 2002, Pierre’s arm has been worth -42.2 runs, canceling out more than half of the +70.9 runs he got with his range. He has been consistently awful at throwing, and it’s just yet another reason why the contract the Dodgers gave him was absurdly awful.

All are minor league deals.

Marlins sign Kiko Calero

Calero disappeared from the baseball map due to rotator cuff issues, causing him to miss multiple months. There’s not a ton to base Calero’s potential moving forward on, he did see some time in the Rangers farm system, pitching poorly but at least showing the ability to strike batters out. Historically, Calero is a slight flyball pitcher, and at such a low-risk, why not?

Rockies sign Scott Munter

2008 is exactly what you expect from Munter. A 4.25 and 4.05 FIP split between the Giants and Rays Triple-A team comes close to matching his major league totals. The key difference being an inverse in walk and strikeout rates for the better. Munter’s key to the majors is continuing to produce groundballs.

Tigers sign Ruddy Lugo

Well, there were rumors of a Lugo landing in Detroit, just not this one. Ruddy went from a moderately successful reliever to a decent starter within one off-season. After flashing extreme control problems, Lugo’s peripherals looked a lot better, even in extended work. The only problem seemed to be with the homerun. Lugo can fake being a slightly above replacement level starter and a decent reliever, assuming he doesn’t become walk happy again.

Red Sox sign Brad Wilkerson

Wilkerson’s homerun rates were down while his infield fly and groundball rates were up. That’s generally a bad combination and suggests Wilkerson was either fouled, has a slowing bat, or was the victim of random chance. For the second time in three years Wilkerson was worth negative value, I don’t know if this is his last chance, but filling in for Mark Kotsay should allow for some playing time early on, we’ll see if Wilkerson is truly done, or simply playing possum.

Rays sign Morgan Ensberg

See Wilkerson, Brad. Both were sky scrapers not long ago, and now latch on to minor league deals with invites to spring training. Ensberg has said he’s willing to play all over, including the corner outfield and second base. Over the last few years Ensberg hasn’t rated too well defensively at third base, but perhaps his skillset lends better to second? He’ll earn 650k if he’s on the roster come opening day.

Things are finally beginning to shape out. After Raul Ibanez signed a somewhat ludicrous contract well before the glut of corner outfielders felt the constraints of the current economy, first hand, some of these cards have been drawn. Bobby Abreu signed for 1-yr/$5 mil with the Angels. Adam Dunn signed for 2-yr/$20 mil with the Nationals. Compared to the 3-yr/$31.5 mil contract handed to Ibanez, and, in a vacuum, the former two signings are relative steals.

As Dave pointed out yesterday, however, both create issues for their respective teams and lineups. One aspect of their signings not yet touched on is what it means for the remaining corner outfielders on the market, primarily Manny Ramirez. Manny has already turned down deals worth 2-yr/$45 mil and 1-yr/$25 mil, both offered from the Dodgers, who seem to be his only suitor.

The Giants reportedly had interest in the services of ManRam, but their 4-yr/$100 mil rumored deal proved fictitious or exaggerated at best. And the Giants may spend a good portion of what they have left on Joe Crede. The Mets are out. The Angels, another potential suitor, filled a void that probably didn’t exist by signing Abreu. The Nats, who had plenty to spend, inked Dunn. Realistically, Manny has one team really interested in what he brings to the table, a team that has to date offered him two contracts defying what we have generally seen in the market, in Manny’s favor.

For a while, plenty of analysts suggested that Manny would dictate what happened to Dunn, Abreu, Griffey and Garret. Realistically, the deals inked by both Abreu and Dunn not only lower the bar even further for Griffey and Garret, but hurt Manny’s leverage. With potentially interested teams filling needs elsewhere, Ramirez will have to sign with the Dodgers if he wants to play baseball next year, unless some other team swoops in out of nowhere and snatches him up.

Either way, this has certainly been the craziest free agent market I can remember in my years of baseball fandom. We have a player seeking an extremely lucrative deal in a depressed market from a team that has no competition for his services. Then again, Scott Boras, the best agent of all time, represents Manny, so don’t be surprised if he actually does coax the Dodgers for a surplus of funds.

The Dodgers starting rotation next season is going to look a tad different. Derek Lowe has left for greener pastures in Atlanta, Brad Penny is expected to amalgamate with John Smoltz to provide a decent pitcher in Boston, and Greg Maddux’s retirement disables him from being acquired late in the season for a third time. Returning will be incumbent ace Chad Billingsley, the productive but somewhat inconsistent Hiroki Kuroda, and the youngster Clayton Kershaw.

Randy Wolf signed a 1-yr/$5 mil deal to man the fourth spot in the rotation earlier this week, meaning the fifth spot is up for grabs between a good number of candidates. Competing for that fifth spot will be, at the very least, Jason Schmidt, Shawn Estes, Eric Stults, and Claudio Vargas. Ramon Troncoso may also figure into the mix. One recently signed pitcher who will not compete for the fifth spot in Spring Training is Jeff Weaver.

Weaver inked a $500,000 minor league deal this week with an invitation to Spring Training. He plans on competing for a bullpen spot. In 2004 and 2005, while with the Dodgers, Weaver posted seasons of +3.5 and +2.0 wins, logging 220+ innings each season. He signed with the Angels in 2006 and proceeded to put up a 5.23 FIP in 16 starts, before finding himself donning a Cardinals uniform.

On the surface, it appears that he performed better in St. Louis, with an ERA over one point lower, but it was largely smoke. His FIP actually rose to 5.71 in the 15 subsequent starts with the Cardinals. Weaver pitched well in the 2006 playoffs, though, en route to a World Series win, and coaxed a contract from the Mariners the following season. As Dave Cameron noted in the 2007 The Hardball Times Annual, Weaver’s season was incredibly interesting to follow. At times he looked unstoppable, but in between those games were spurts, sometimes extended, of awful performance.

Overall, Weaver made 27 starts with a 5.07 FIP and 6.20 ERA in 2007. He bounced around the farm systems of both the Indians and Brewers last season, but his numbers failed to improve. Putting up a 5.18+ FIP in the minor leagues is not going to impress anyone, especially when you are no longer a 22-yr old prospect still looking to harness raw abilities.

If Weaver can have a solid Spring Training he may be a good bet to replace Chan Ho Park as an extended righty out of the pen with the potential to make starts when needed. Either way, this is a low-risk move for the Dodgers if there ever was one: if he makes the team, then he had to have shown them some semblance of remaining ability, making his ~league minimum $500k salary worth the cost.

If he has completely lost everything, he won’t make the team or earn any money. I cannot pinpoint why but I am personally pulling for him to make the club and produce at the major league level again. Regardless, this is likely his last chance to salvage what was once a very promising career.

The corner OF market began to unclog today. First, Abreu goes to the Angels, which we discussed this afternoon, and now Adam Dunn has joined the Washington Reds for $20 million over two years. This is a classic Jim Bowden move – acquire a former top prospect that he’s already acquired previously, especially if he doesn’t really have room for them on his roster. If Bowden was a general contractor, he’d build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof.

But, getting beyond Bowden’s hilarious roster construction strategies, this move is similar to the Abreu signing – it will make the Nationals better, is a good deal in terms of cost per wins, and will create a roster headache for Manny Acta.

By all accounts, Dunn is signing with the understanding that he’s going to play first base. He replaces the Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young duo of unhealth, and they’ll just call the $10 million that they owe those two a sunk cost. In a best case scenario, Johnson shows something in spring training and the Nationals could move him to someone who needs a LH bat and they get out of his contract.

Dunn, as a first baseman, should be worth something like +2 to +3 wins for the next two years. Moving to first base gets his glove out of the outfield, but he’s been pretty awful at first base in the 900 innings he got in Cincinnati, so he still gives back a decent chunk of his offense with his poor glovework. But, a +2 to +3 win player for $10 million a year at only a two year commitment isn’t a bad deal, especially for a team that’s trying to draw some fans to a new park and.

The problem, though, is that using Dunn as a first baseman means Josh Willingham is now stuck in the outfield, and it’s a ridiculously crowded outfield. Without Dunn, Acta could have potentially hid Willingham at first and gotten Kearns or Harris into the line-up, so Dunn isn’t replacing replacement level players. Both Kearns and Harris can play a really good outfield and hit a little bit, and this move makes it significantly harder for either of them to find playing time for Washington.

Just like with Abreu, the overall value added to the roster by the player will be less than his individual win value. Dunn’s a nice enough player, but this doesn’t make the Nationals significantly better. This should bump them up by a win or so. This is still a really poorly constructed roster. Why is Jim Bowden still employed?

All the UZR stats on the site have been updated thanks to Mitchel Lichtman’s outfield arm and double play ratings!

– UZR now inlcudes outfield ARM runs and Double Play runs.
– ARM and DPR (Double Play runs) are broken out separately in the fielding sections.
– All player Win Values have been updated to include these additions.
– There have also been some slight changes to UZR that adjust for how fielder’s choice plays were being calculated.

The changes are available in all sections of the site including the player pages, leaderboards, team pages and my team pages.

This post continues our pre-season look at the top prospects in each of the 30 Major League Baseball organizations. The Houston Astros’ minor league system is in the lower third in all of baseball, but the club had a promising draft in 2008, which has helped to replenish the system in the low minors.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Felipe Paulino was on the cusp of earning a full-time Major League gig in 2008 when shoulder woes sidelined him and he made just one appearance last season. It’s hard to know what to expect from Paulino in 2009, but he has allegedly hit 102 mph on the radar gun in the past. However, his strikeout rates have been up and down in his career, including 2006 and 2007 (6.48 and 8.84 K/9). If healthy, he could provide a much-needed jolt to the Astros’ pitching rotation.

A former sixth round pick out of Cal Poly, Bud Norris has shown improvements each and every season since being drafted in 2006. His 2008 season, though, was interrupted by an elbow injury, which did not require surgery. A starter in the minors, Norris projects as more of a reliever with a two-pitch repertoire that includes a 93-95 mph fastball (that can touch the upper 90s) and a slider. He could break camp at the Major League level in the bullpen with a nice spring.

Third baseman Chris Johnson split 2008 between Double-A and Triple-A but had much more success at the lower level. He hit .324/.364/.506 with an ISO of .182 in 330 at-bats at Corpus Christi, but managed just a .218 average in 101 Triple-A at-bats. Defensively, he has a very strong arm but average range. Johnson needs a little more work in the minors but he should be able to supplant Aaron Boone at third base before long.

Brian Bogusevic’s story has been well documented, as a former No. 1 draft pick as a pitcher who converted back to a hitter in 2008 and thrived. He hit .371 in Double-A with an OPS of 1.003 and an ISO of .185. However, those numbers came in just 42 games, so the optimism should be tempered until Bogusevic, 24, has the chance to compete over the span of a full season.

Drew Sutton came out of nowhere in 2008 to earn consideration for Houston’s future opening at second base (Kaz Matsui isn’t capable of holding any promising player off for long). Sutton was a 15th-round selection out of Baylor University in 2004 and has moved quietly up the organizational ladder – that was until 2008 when he set the ladder on fire. At Double-A, he hit .317/.408/.523 with 20 homers and 102 RBI. He also stole 20 bases and posted a walk rate of 12.8 BB%. It was the 25-year-old switch hitter’s second season in Double-A, so the numbers may have been slightly inflated, but nonetheless he has potential as an offensive-minded second baseman. Beware the ghost of Brooks Conrad.

A+/A Prospects:

(Sounds of crickets chirping)

SS/R Prospects:
Catcher Jason Castro had a solid, but unspectacular, debut after being taken 10th overall out of Stanford University during the 2008 amateur draft. He had a very nice junior season in college, but his first two seasons were suspect, which is cause for a little concern given that he dominated for just one year. Regardless, Castro has all the tools necessary to succeed both offensively and defensively, if he continues to make adjustments. His path to the Majors, though, is currently blocked by former top prospect J.R. Towles, who still has potential despite his horrific 2008 season.

Ross Seaton was a great supplemental third round pick out of a Texas high school in 2008, especially considering he received some consideration in the late first round. It was widely expected that only a Texas-based organization could pry Seaton away from his college commitment. The 19-year-old right-hander appeared in just three games after signing and should spend most of the season in extended spring training and short-season ball. He has top-of-the-rotation upside.

Jordan Lyles did not have nearly the press that Seaton did, but he was drafted in the supplemental first round out of high school in 2008. He is on a much faster track than Seaton, as he made 15 starts last season and could potentially taste A-ball in 2009. Last season, Lyles allowed just 44 hits in 49.2 innings and posted rates of 1.81 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9 in rookie ball.

Up Next: The Minnesota Twins

The Angels spent most of the winter declaring that 2009 was the season when they were finally going to give their young kids a real shot, and used that as an explanation for why they weren’t active in replacing Mark Teixeira after he headed to the Yankees and told Garret Anderson to enjoy the rest of his career elsewhere. However, with the price for Bobby Abreu crashing through the floor, they couldn’t pass up a deal when they saw one, and have reportedly signed him to a one year, $5 million-ish deal.

From a pure dollars per win standpoint, this is obviously a good move. Even with Abreu’s defensive decline, he’s still something like a +2 to +2.5 win player, so the Angels are paying just a couple of million per win in this deal. If he puts them over the top and helps them win the AL West, the return on those dollars could be in the 500% range. It’s money well spent.

However, it creates some interesting questions in LA. They already re-signed Juan Rivera to a three year contract earlier this winter, and obviously Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero are going to play when healthy. Plus, there’s guys like Gary Matthews Jr and Reggie Willits hanging around as reserve outfielders already on the roster. There had also been talk of moving Chone Figgins to the OF to make room for Brandon Wood, one of the young kids who the Angels had been saying was going to get a real chance to prove himself in the majors this year. So, how do they sort all this out?

Let’s take a look at the five positions that are related here – LF, CF, RF, 3B, and DH. Between those five spots, the Angels have something like 3,500 plate appearances to hand out. 2,500 or so will be against RHP, with the other 1,000 coming against LHP, assuming a 70/30 split. Let’s start filling up those PA totals with one potential option.

RF – Guerrero, 375 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
RF – Abreu, 125 PA vs RHP, 50 vs LHP

CF – Hunter, 450 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
CF – Matthews, 50 PA vs RHP, 50 PA vs LHP

LF – Abreu, 250 PA vs RHP, 75 PA vs LHP
LF – Rivera, 125 PA vs RHP, 100 PA vs LHP
LF – Matthews, 125 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP

DH – Rivera, 200 PA vs RHP, 100 PA vs LHP
DH – Abreu, 125 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP
DH – Figgins, 75 PA vs RHP, 25 vs LHP
DH – Guerrero, 50 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP
DH – Wood, 50 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP

3B – Figgins, 400 PA vs RHP, 125 PA vs LHP
3B – Wood, 100 PA vs RHP, 75 PA vs LHP

Total by Player:

Guerrero: 425 PA vs RHP, 175 PA vs LHP
Hunter: 450 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
Abreu: 500 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
Rivera: 325 PA vs RHP, 200 PA vs LHP
Figgins: 475 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
Matthews: 175 PA vs RHP, 75 PA vs LHP
Wood: 150 PA vs RHP, 100 PA vs LHP

That’s one way that the Angels could potentially distribute the 3,500 PA they’ll get from those five positions. As you can see, the regular line-up would include Guerrero, Hunter, Abreu, Rivera, and Figgins, with Matthews and Wood relegated to backup duties.

The problem, however, is that if you’re consistently starting Guerrero, Rivera, and Abreu, two of those three have to play the outfield. That’s just not going to be a pretty sight to watch, and the pitching staff will take a hit with that kind of outfield defense behind them.

Abreu will help the Angels offense – that’s not in question. However, there are roster issues here that need to be worked out. In reality, the at-bats Abreu is going to get are coming from Gary Matthews (which downgrades the defense) and from Brandon Wood (which stalls his development, again). The marginal impact of Abreu’s presence on the team, while taking playing time from those two, is probably in the +1 win range.

This is a good move for the Angels. Adding a +2 win player, who is about +1 win better than your current alternatives, for $5 million in a season where you’re expecting to contend is a move that you should make. But this isn’t a huge upgrade for the Angels – it’s a marginal improvement, and one that could potentially cause some other issues.

We’re encroaching on the start of a new season, which means an annual column on the worst baseball contracts of all-time has been published. Naturally names like Mike Hampton, Mo Vaughn, Darren Dreifort, and Chan Ho Park pop up, but in this ESPN.com Page 2 column, names like Alex Rodriguez and Adrian Beltre are listed, although not ranked amongst the “10 worst”. Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing has already blown the Alex Rodriguez mention to shreds with this post, but I’m still confused how Adrian Beltre deserves inclusion. Here’s what they say about him:

Adrian Beltre, 2005: 5 years, $64 million. Beltre hasn’t been a bad player with the Mariners, and while he’s been durable and provides a good glove, he’s also never posted an on-base percentage above .328 or driven in a hundred runs.

Beltre has been durable, and we’ll touch on the glove in a moment, but let’s focus on the offensive production. Belte’s career on-base percentage is .327 with a career walk rate of 7.3%. During his time in Seattle Beltre has posted OBPs and walk rates of: .303, .328, .319, .327, and 5.9%, 7%, 6%, and 8.3%. Average those out however you like and you’re essentially getting Beltre’s career totals.

That suggests the Mariners are getting what they paid for in terms of walks and on-base skills and while they aren’t great, Beltre was never going to replicate a .388 OBP without some balls-in-play luck. During that same time Beltre has slugged .413, .465, .482, and .457. That’s valuable. Of course, one should also point out Safeco Field’s conditions and dimensions depress right-handed power numbers, hurting Beltre’s raw offensive numbers. Using our park-adjusted batting runs metric, we see that Beltre has been worth about 17 runs offensively over his time in Seattle. That’s not too bad for a defensive virtuoso.

Defense is the part of Beltre’s game that people widely ignore or undervalue. Over the last four years Beltre has been worth an average of roughly 9 runs per season defensively. Add in those four runs of offense, a positional adjustment and 20 or so runs for replacement level and you have a 3.5-4 win player worth around 16 million on this market, but instead will only make 12 million next year. Ultimately, Beltre’s contract has paid him ~51 million to date and yet Beltre’s performances are valued at ~57 million, suggesting that Beltre has actually earned the Mariners a profit on a pretty good free agent deal.

Some may call Beltre’s contract a result of Bill Bavasi being Bill Bavasi and that’s simply untrue. Whether lucky or not, Bavasi signed Beltre to a very fair deal and ended up paying one of the league’s more underappreciated talents right what the market would dictate.