Prior to March 30th of last year, most people had no idea Odalis Perez was still in the majors, and yet there he was on ESPN to open the season versus Atlanta.

The most unlikely opening day starter this year? Probably Oakland’s Dallas Braden or the Angels’ Joe Saunders. In terms of events having to occur for the pitcher to get the nod, then Saunders takes the cake. John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Ervin Santana all had to go down with injuries. Owner of a career 4.36 FIP, Saunders doesn’t come close to the most unlikely opening day starter of the past few seasons.

Jason Johnson and Mike Maroth got the call in consecutive years for the Tigers. A 1999 game between the Pirates and Expos featured a match-up of Francisco Cordova and Dustin Hermansen. Steve Trachsel, Albie Lopez, Tanyon Sturtze, and Dewon Brazelton have done honors for the Rays. 2002 saw Ron Villone start for the Pirates. Remember when Jose Lima started opening day 2005 for the Royals against the Tigers? Yeah, odds are, neither does Lima. The Twins primary opening day starter this decade was Brad Radke, with the exception of two Johan Santana starts, last year they called upon Livan Hernandez. Ouch.

Billy Beane’s first opening as General Manager came with Gil Heredia on the mound. Jeff Fassero also got the start in 1999 for the Mariners. The Rangers? Let’s see, Rick Helling, Chan Ho Park, Ismael Valdez, and Ryan Drese. How about the Brewers, with a run of Rafael Roque, Steve Woodard, and Jamey Wright?

By comparison, Saunders nor Braden seems that out of place. Who are some opening day starters that proved once and for all why the word isn’t synonymous with “ace of the staff”?

Last week, Dan Novick of Statistically Speaking wrote a post discussing the current relationship of sabermetrics and the mainstream in an attempt to figure out why advanced statistical analysis is not more popular. Dave Cameron responded here, largely pointing out that sabermetrics have in fact been integrated into the mainstream, with links to our posts popping up at ESPN and the Wall Street Journal, and teams reaching out to hire very solid analysts in order to bolster their operations staff.

Even further, the MLB Network is using ERA+ in their Prime 9 series, and ESPN showed OPS numbers in their lower-third graphics in last night’s Phillies-Braves season opener. It is undeniable that great strides have been made but I still do not believe that sabermetrics are necessarily mainstream… and, to be quite honest, I am glad.

This might seem like a counterintuitive statement from an analyst like myself, but I look at things differently than others. I’m not in this game to prove a greater knowledge than the casual fan, nor am I in this field to constantly berate mainstream analysis or the opinions of commentators who still think batting average is the mecca of number-crunching. Certain members of the sabermetrics crowd certainly fall into this category, but my goal has always been to increase the wisdom of anyone willing to listen. If there is one thing I have learned in my 23 years on this planet, it would be that convincing someone to agree with you while they steadfastly hold onto their own belief is incredibly futile. I’m not going to waste time trying to convert batting average advocates into the wOBA faithful.

If sabermetrics were truly ingratiated with the mainstream, the wonderful analysis found here, at The Book Blog, The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and all of the other analysis-oriented blogs/sites might not exist. We could instead turn to Sportscenter to find out Win Values leaders, or listen to Joe Morgan discuss the benefits of UZR. I get as ticked off as anyone else when announcers ramble on about RBIs or when Harold Reynolds and Barry Larkin express their desire for quality .215 hitters, but I love being able to analyze the game from a different perspective. If sabermetrics were the norm, the outlets to do so would be few and far between, and would instead be hogged by the Plaschke’s, Mariotti’s, and Paige’s of the world.

I thoroughly enjoy receiving random Facebook friend requests from readers of my work, or looking over in a computer lab at school and seeing someone reading posts on this site. In a relatively small group, one can not only make a real difference in the field in question, but can also truly feel the impact.

People have very specific comfort zones which is the primary reason I feel sabermetrics are not more popular. When the “old-time” baseball people scoff at the idea of analysis, they are criticizing change moreso than the information itself. It gets pretty ridiculous when they go onto criticize those providing the information, which is where much of the hullabaloo of stats vs. scouts is derived.

Sabermetrics are definitely finding their way into more mainstream outlets, but they are not fully accepted by the bigger piece of the population pie, and this particular writer is perfectly fine with that fact. For anyone interested and willing to listen, thereby increasing their knowledge of the game and understanding of how players actually contribute from a production standpoint, all of us here at Fangraphs will always do our best to provide top of the line advanced statistical analysis. For the uninterested parties who will never read these words, all I ask is that you accept the benefits analysis like this can provide even if you choose not to utilize such information.

Ultimately, this plea may go unheard for quite some time. Before sabermetrics can truly get to its mainstream apex, those opposing the form of analysis need to get past their own personal aversions to change. Human nature says such a conversion is unlikely to take place, but before we list all of the baseball-related reasons for sabermetric resistance, look first to those actually resisting, as their reasoning likely deals much moreso with personal makeup than anything like fantasy baseball. For now, we just have to deal with the fact that the wonderful pool of statistical analysts and the loyal readers who flock to our sites hoping to increase their wisdom are in the minority, and we need to understand that being in this minority is in no way a bad thing.

For those of you who visited FanGraphs for the first time this off-season, you may not realize that we track every game’s win probability in real time during the season. This year, we’re also going to “tweet” every play and win probability in real time! We have twitter feeds set up for each team, so you can follow your favorite team on your cell phone or through a twitter application of your choice.

We will be tweeting all 162 games for each team, the all-star game, and the playoffs.

There are two types of feeds for each team. The full version, and the lite version. The full version is every single play and the lite version is end of inning plays, significant score changes, and any play that changes the win probability more than 10%. I suspect the full feed will have about 70-100 updates a game, while the lite version will have 20-30 a game.

Consider these feeds in beta! I have tested them a bunch of times this off-season, but there still might be some issues. I’ll definitely take suggestions on these feeds but remember there’s a 140 character limit on tweets.

Example Tweet: 2-9, 0 % to Win, Top 9, 3 Outs, ___, Jay Payton flied out to second .

It gives you the score (with the team your followings score first), the % chance the team your following is going to win the game, the inning, the outs, the base state ( ___ means no one on, _23 would be runners on 2nd and 3rd), and the last play(s).

You can sign up for as many feeds as you like, but be warned, you will receive two tweets per game update if two teams are playing each other and you are subscribed to both feeds.

The Feeds: The full feed is followed by an _fg, so the yankees full feed would be “yankees_fg”. The quick feeds are followed by a _qf so it would be “yankees_qf”

Team:           Full Feed           Quick Feed
Angels:         angels_fg           angels_qf
Astros:         astros_fg           astros_qf
Athletics:      athletics_fg        athletics_qf
Blue Jays:      bluejays_fg         bluejays_qf
Braves:         braves_fg           braves_qf
Brewers:        brewers_fg          brewers_qf
Cardinals:      cardinals_fg        cardinals_qf
Cubs:           cubs_fg             cubs_qf
Diamondbacks:   diamondbacks_fg     diamondbacks_qf
Dodgers:        dodgers_fg          dodgers_qf
Giants:         giants_fg           giants_qf
Indians:        indians_fg          indians_qf
Mariners:       mariners_fg         mariners_qf
Marlins:        marlins_fg          marlins_qf
Mets:           mets_fg             mets_qf
Nationals:      nationals_fg        nationals_qf
Orioles:        orioles_fg          orioles_qf
Padres:         padres_fg           padres_qf
Phillies:       phillies_fg         phillies_qf
Pirates:        pirates_fg          pirates_qf
Rangers:        rangers_fg          rangers_qf
Rays:           rays_fg             rays_qf
Reds:           reds_fg             reds_qf
Red Sox:        redsox_fg           redsox_qf
Rockies:        rockies_fg          rockies_qf
Royals:         royals_fg           royals_qf
Tigers:         tigers_fg           tigers_qf
Twins:          twins_fg            twins_qf
White Sox:      whitesox_fg         whitesox_qf
Yankees:        yankees_fg          yankees_qf

Back in 2003, the Detroit Tigers went 43-119, narrowly avoiding a tie with the expansion 1962 New York Mets for the most losses since 1900. Dmitri Young proved to be their top hitter with just +2.1 wins added, and Nate Cornejo led the pitching staff at +1.9 wins. At most, their top two players were league average. Hope sprung eternal in the motor city, however, thanks to the promising young arms of Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson, Nate Cornejo, And Jeremy Bonderman. Suffice it to say, none of the four have lived up to the hype sent their way several years ago. They might have a better track record than the Bill Pulsipher/Jason Isringhausen/Paul Wilson triumvirate of the Mets in the mid-90s, but the fearsome foursome has not met expectations.

Maroth became famous for losing 21 games, becoming the first pitcher to surpass the 20-loss plateau in over two decades. Many felt his varied repertoire, precision control, and ability to induce grounders would lead to a long and prosperous career. They were wrong, primarily because his putrid strikeout rates never factored into the equations. Throughout his career, Maroth’s K/9 has topped out at 4.95, though his career rate is lower at 4.34. He performed quite well in 2004-05, producing a sum of +5.2 wins, but injuries and the inability to miss bats finally caught up with Maroth in 2006, and he is yet to regain form. After splitting time with the Tigers and Cardinals in 2007, Maroth spent last season in the Royals farm system. He figures to repeat the act with the Blue Jays this season, though surgery may in fact end any chance of making the roster. This could very well be his last hoorah.

Teammate Bonderman graduated with a Masters in Underperforming from the JVIOSPBPR – the Javier Vazquez Institute of Solid Peripherals But Poor Results. From 2003-07, Bonderman never made less than 28 starts or pitched fewer than 162 innings. With a K/9 comfortably above 7.0 Bonderman also decided to limit free passes, reducing his walk rate from 3.5 to 2.5 per nine. Because of this, his win values have overstated actual contribution, similarly to Vazquez himself. Not that Bonderman has struggled, but his average of +3.4 wins/yr might not be a completely accurate depiction of his performance. Last season, things ironically went in reverse, as his 4.29 ERA bested a 5.18 FIP. He missed most of the 2008 season with injuries, however, and his return date is still up in the air.

Cornejo, the aforementioned top pitcher of that 2003 squad, managed just five appearances the following season, largely ineffective, before injuries got the best of him and forced an early retirement. His first name doppleganger, Nate Robertson, seems to be a mix of Maroth and Bonderman, posting average strikeout and walk rates, keeping balls on the ground, throwing strikes, and matching up ERAs and FIPs more closely. After struggling in 2003, Robertson averaged approximately +2.3 wins/yr from 2004-07, showing signs of improvement in a few areas but consistently serving as that slightly above average pitcher capable of toeing the rubber and logging innings with regular consistency. His performance dropped to just +1.2 wins last season in 28 starts thanks to a .343 BABIP, a reduced strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and higher home run rate. In actuality, the HR/9 of 1.39 is much closer to seasons past; the 1.11 in 2006 is the outlier.

Robertson recently stated that his time with the Tigers may be nearing its end given his demotion to the bullpen, meaning that Bonderman could be the lone remaining member of this particular prospect quartet. Hopefully he can brush aside the injuries that hindered last season’s production and get his career back on track, but this definitely goes to show how nothing is ever a sure thing. For every solid pitching prospect there are likely 3-4 that fall by the wayside. For Tigers fans everywhere, here’s to hoping that Rick Porcello kid does not fall into the same category as any of these four pitchers.

The Gary Sheffield sweepstakes didn’t last long, as the mercurial slugger signed with the Mets this afternoon. He will reportedly replace Marlon Anderson on the roster, so he’s being given the lowest hurdle to clear in the history of hurdling.

His role is being reported as right-fielder against left-handed pitching and pinch hitter on other days. Given that there weren’t any teams interested in him as a DH, this is probably the best fit he was going to find. With Carlos Beltran entrenched in center field and flanked by Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy, the Mets have three legitimate outfielders who can cover some ground, so they can afford to carry some guys for their bats.

With Fernando Tatis and now Sheffield in the fold, the Mets have some line-up flexibility in the outfield, giving them a pair of L/R platoon options. Sheffield shouldn’t be expected to play the outfield regularly, but as the right-handed portion of a platoon, he won’t be asked to play more than a few hundred innings in the outfield.

Even with his struggles last year, CHONE projects Sheffield as a league average hitter for 2009. If they can limit the amount of time he spends in the outfield and get him at-bats mostly against left-handed pitching, he could be a valuable role player. This is a good fit for both Sheffield and the Mets.

This probably does not come as a shock to many people, but the Washington Nationals system is not very good. There are some interesting players in the lower minors, but most of their talented Latin signings from the last few years turned out to be 35 years old and older… OK, not quite. But the grey hair should have been a tip off.

AAA/AA
Jordan Zimmermann had a great 2008 season and an even better spring training in 2009, which earned him a spot on the club’s opening day starting rotation. The former second round draft pick was selected out of a small college in 2007. During the 2008 season, Zimmermann allowed just 89 hits in 106.2 Double-A innings. He also posted rates of 3.29 BB/9 and 8.69 K/9. He has good four-pitch mix with a fastball that touches 94 mph, a slider, curveball and change-up.

While Zimmermann has taken a huge step forward, Ross Detwiler has taken a step or two back after being the club’s first round pick in the same draft. Detwiler received a taste of big league action after signing, but he spent all of 2008 in High-A ball with modest results. He allowed 140 hits in 124 innings and posted rates of 4.14 BB/9 and 8.27 K/9. Detwiler has a fastball that can touch 96 mph, along with a good curveball and change-up. He’s expected to open 2009 in Double-A despite his struggles.

A+/A
Michael Burgess, 20, was another player that had a disappointing season in 2008. After a stunning debut in 2007 after being a supplemental first round pick out of high school, the outfielder hit just .249/.335/.469 with 18 home runs in 401 at-bats. He posted rates of 10.3 BB% and a gut-churning 33.9 K%. He “earned” a late-season promotion to High-A, where he hit .225 albeit with six homers in just 71 at-bats. Burgess is not the best fielder but he has a strong arm, which helps him immensely in right field.

Chris Marrero was the organization’s first round draft pick in 2006 but he has been slowed by injuries (a broken leg and damaged ankle in ’08) and inconsistencies. The 20-year-old first baseman spent 2008 in High-A ball where he hit .250/.325/.453 with 11 home runs in just 256 at-bats. He also posted rates of 8.9 BB% and 21.5 K%. It was his second time in High-A and most of his numbers took a small dip. Regardless, he should open 2009 in Double-A.

Catcher Derek Norris is an intriguing sleeper in the system, who is starting to get noticed more and more. In 2008, the 2007 fourth round pick out of high school hit .278/.444/.463 with 10 home runs and 11 steals (in 20 attempts) in 227 short-season at-bats. Norris also posted impressive rates of 21.7 BB% and 24.7 K%. Defensively, the right-handed hitter is raw but he has a strong arm and threw out almost 50 percent of base stealers last year.

SS/R
One of the best bits of news that the organization received this year is that Jack McGeary is going to pitch full-time for the first time since signing for almost $2 million in 2007. He had been splitting his time between baseball and finishing his degree at Stanford. The left-hander had a good year in 2008 and he allowed 61 hits in 59.2 innings. He also posted rates of 1.96 BB/9 and 9.65 K/9. McGeary has a repertoire that includes an 87-91 mph fastball, good curve and change-up.

Outfielder Destin Hood was selected out of high school in the second round of the 2008 draft. The toolsy outfielder played both baseball and football in college and was given a large contract to forgo college. In his debut in rookie ball, Hood hit .256/.333/.349 in 86 at-bats. Catcher Adrian Nieto was another prep player given an above-average contract to sign. He hit .265/.390/.353 in 34 rookie at-bats. Following the trend, J.P. Ramirez cashed in after signing late. He hit .364 in just 11 at-bats. Impressively, he walked four times and did not strike out.

Up Next: The Regular Season!

Ichiro Suzuki has been placed on the disabled list due to a bleeding ulcer that was affecting him with symptoms including extreme fatigue. The placement is retroactive to March 31 meaning that Ichiro is eligible to return to action on tax day, April 15th, at the earliest. For fans in Seattle, that means he will miss the home opener (April 14th) and it also means that Ichiro is going to miss a minimum of eight games.

This is Ichiro’s first stint on the disabled list during his American career. Remarkably, the minimum eight games that he will miss to start the 2009 season is equal to one half of the total number of games that he has missed over his previous eight seasons combined. From 2001-8 Ichiro played in 1,280 of 1,296 possible games.

This is obviously bad news for Mariner fans, and continues the incredible rate of attrition going on amongst name players in the AL West this Spring, but the good news is that it is nothing more serious than this. According to reports, the ulcer has stopped bleeding, and the DL move seems more precautionary than anything. Although the news is still too fresh to have a statement on the expectation for when he will return, at the moment, the language seems to lend itself toward suggesting that Ichiro will only miss the minimum amount of time.

How much time he does end up missing is going to have a big impact on the already small chances the Mariners have at post season contention this season. They’ve already lost the upside of Brandon Morrow in the rotation and decided to send Jeff Clement down to the minors to start the year. Losing any significant amount of games from Ichiro would pretty much torpedo their hopes for 2009.

Who is the injury bug going to strike next?

When browsing the headlines at Baseball Think Factory this morning, one jumped out – Why Haven’t Sabermetrics Gone Mainstream? My first reaction was “they have”. I mean, really, let’s take a look at the baseball world today.

The Wall Street Journal started a sports page about a month ago. I have a piece in there today, and Carl Bialik wrote about Matthew’s work on Ryan Madson’s change-up. I’d imagine most people would consider this to be something of a sabermetric website, and the Wall Street Journal to be fairly mainstream.

The media is definitely on board – ESPN employs Rob Neyer and Keith Law as two of their main baseball writers. Karl Ravech was talking about PECOTA the other night. John Dewan has had numerous features done while promoting The Fielding Bible II. Sports Illustrated just did a story on the rise of defense in baseball. You can’t get away from mainstream media coverage of ideas that were generated in the sabermetric community.

It’s even more pervasive in MLB itself. Obviously, everyone knows about how the A’s operate thanks to Moneyball, but the links between the organizations and this community of baseball analysts are growing tighter by the day. The Tampa Bay Rays now employ James Click and Chaim Bloom, who got their start at Baseball Prospectus, along with former FanGraphs writer Peter Bendix and Pitch F/x guru Josh Kalk. The Seattle Mariners hired Tom Tango over the winter, and have created an entire department of baseball research that they’re filling with sabermetrics kids. The Indians have Keith Woolner, among others. The Pirates hired Dan Fox. The list goes of people hired by MLB organizations from the internet baseball community is remarkably extensive.

The struggle for legitimacy is over. Sabermetrics has been accepted as a fairly large part of baseball. Maybe not by everyone, but by most of the people who are in positions of influence. For better or worse, this isn’t a bunch of outsiders struggling to get their voice heard over the shouting mob anymore. This little brand of baseball analysis that we all enjoy has crossed over.

Let’s talk platoons, more specifically, the right field platoon in St. Petersburg that features two guys named Gabe; Gross and Kapler.

Kapler is the lone right-handed hitter, and the one assured of a steady gig. Throughout his career Kapler has hit lefties well enough for a .828 OPS. Last year the Rays did an excellent job of limiting Gross’ exposure to lefties. In fact, only 21% of his plate appearances came against the same hand. Gross has a career OPS of .786 versus righties and .519 versus lefties.

This tells us that while Gross and Kapler should primarily be used in a strict platoon, there is room for overlap, at least against right-handed pitchers. There are some variables we’re not going to account for here, pitcher splits and leverage of these events come to mind. We can infer that the Rays have basically defeated the idea of using a LOOGY against Gross, because they can simply call upon Kapler to pinch hit.

Let’s assume the duo combine for 700 plate appearances and that Gross sees most of the playing time, about 60%, or nearly 400 plate appearances, and hits for his career average against lefties and righties while seeing 80% righties. Kapler, meanwhile, sees 60% lefties.

When using a league average wOBA of .330, that results in about three offensive runs combined over 700 plate appearances. Take away the 7.5 positional adjustment, add in ~10-15 defensive runs, and 22.5 playing time adjustment and you should get around 28 runs, or about a three win player, only in the form of two players.

As for the Gabe of the Day platoon, it’ll certainly work until the Rays front office deems Matthew Joyce ready for full time action.

Of course, using the last three years instead of career splits will result in more accurate numbers, but this is intended as a rough sketch of what a properly executed platoon can bring to the table. Sometimes, quality and quantity go hand in hand.

With opening day literally right around the corner, fans in every major league city are beginning to feel that itch, that unwavering confidence that this year could be the year their team does some damage. Some of these fans have legitimate cases, as a few teams outside of the usual suspects–Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Yanks, Sox, and Angels–could conceivably play their way to a division title or wild card spot. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Giants or Cardinals somehow snuck up on teams or if the Athletics find themselves playing meaningful games in August and September. One team being mentioned as a potential sleeper is the Cincinnati Reds, and while I do not consider them to have playoff-bound talent this season, I do agree with Jerry Crasnick in that their young nucleus is impressive.

The familiar faces of the team are gone, with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr finding new homes after mid-season trades, essentially leaving chief regression candidate (in a good way), Aaron Harang as the most recognizable player. He will be joined in the rotation by the consistently under the radar Bronson Arroyo, the PTBNL of the Dunn deal in Micah Owings, and their two young guns, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Many forget that Cueto is younger than Volquez and potentially has more upside. This rotation might not wow the pants off of viewers but they certainly combine to be above average.

Francisco Cordero heads the bullpen and while he is in no way worth the ridiculous terms of his contract, it isn’t like he lacks talent. The guy might not be worth all that money but he isn’t a bum. The rest of the bullpen, with names like David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, and Bill Bray, is not flashy but has the experience and skill to get the job done on most nights. This is essentially the perfect recipe for going unnoticed.

Brandon Phillips, though no longer a spring chicken, is still a very solid second baseman combining pop with good glovework. Joey Votto had a better season last year than many realize. Edwin Encarnacion may not be the next Scott Rolen with the glove but he can definitely rake. And top prospect Jay Bruce projects very nicely. The team even has flexibility in certain areas as Jonny Gomes has shown a propensity for mashing lefties and Jerry Hairston Jr put up gaudy numbers in limited playing time last season. Combine both with Chris Dickerson and you get a pretty solid left-field situation.

The lineup certainly has holes and question marks in the forms of Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez’s questionable health, and Ramon Hernandez, but the talent on the roster tends to get overlooked. Combine everything and you have a team with a decent enough rotation, a bullpen that doesn’t stink up a locker room, and a lineup primarily featuring players with broad skillsets as opposed to one undeniable ability. The Reds then are the posterchild for being ignored as they lack much flash. Despite the good things I’ve been writing about so far, I cannot see them doing any real damage with regards to the playoffs. Some talent is there, enough to not stink, but not enough to truly succeed.