It took about 30 games for the first manager to get axed. The whispers were all around the last few days that Arizona manager Bob Melvin was off the heat seat onto the plastic chair hanging over the volcano. Last night, the Diamondbacks organization made it official, relieving Melvin of his job. Later today they’ll name his replacement, Jon Heyman reports that it will be front office member A.J. Hinch.

You’ll remember Hinch from his playing days during the last decade. Most of Hinch’s career was spent in Oakland, although he later caught (pun intended) on with the Royals, Tigers, and Phillies. The interesting thing is that many figured Hinch was a future General Manager, not so much as a manager. Baseball America even named him as one of the more promising GM candidates just three years ago.

Hinch has a ton of issues to attempt and resolve. The ‘Backs still missing ace Brandon Webb and despite Dan Haren’s best Voltron impression, Hinch’s team is still nine games back of the first place Dodgers. Hinch’s lineup has holes at first base (.603 OPS), short (.666), left field (.524), and center (.521) and at this point it’s just a matter of catching Chris Young, Conor Jackson, and Stephen Drew on the upswing.

There’s only so much Hinch can do. Unless you believe the players quit on Melvin for whatever reason then Hinch will not be the reason things turn around in Arizona unless he speaks in a tongue that awakens bats.

As for the next manager to go, I’m not so sure that Eric Wedge should purchase any new furniture for his Cleveland home, especially as his bullpen continues to implode.

Randy Johnson has not pitched particularly well this season, for instance see yesterday’s shelling at the hands of the Rockies. In fact, outside of Tim Lincecum, nobody in the Giants rotation has pitched well with their second best pitcher being Barry Zito of all people. Still, Randy Johnson is approaching history and if he can improve him outings and get some offensive support there is a chance for that history to take place in an appropriate spot.

Johnson’s next start, assuming the rotation as is holds will by May 11th at home against the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are not in fact a poor hitting team, but the current slated starter for that game is Daniel Cabrera who has been so awful this year that even the Giants’ pathetic offense stands a chance to bat him around.

Following that start, Johnson will next face the New York Mets at home on May 16th. The Mets have a very good offense and worse yet, according to the current schedule, Randy will be taking the hill opposite Johan Santana. That is going to take quite a bit deal of providence to come out on the winning side of that battle.

So there are some long shot odds that we are dealing with. However, should the Giants, and more importantly in this case Randy Johnson, get wins in both of those games, then Randy Johnson will arrive in Seattle on May 22nd with 299 career wins. His home for a decade, the place where he transformed himself, and the city that has seen Ken Griffey Jr. return home might be on hand to witness Johnson’s first attempt at win number 300.

If it happens, it would be an interesting study to see where the loyalties of longtime Mariner fans lay for that game. There are some times that hometown fans are able to root for returning players to do well and for their team to still win, allowing for some leeway in rooting interest that I am sure some people still see as infidelity. This situation would be even more divisive since if one were to root for Johnson to get win number 300 in Seattle, that would necessitate rooting for the hometown team to lose.

One of the more famous axioms in baseball goes something like this – good pitching beats good hitting. A perfectly placed changeup on the outside corner can fool even the best players like Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Sure, offense plays a major role in the success of a team, but front offices certainly dish out their fair share of funds for hurlers based on the idea that a solid pitching staff can keep their team in any game. With that in mind, here are the ERA, FIP, and K/BB marks for five starters from an anonymous major league starting rotation:

A: 5.35 ERA, 6.61 FIP, 1.80 K/BB
B: 5.65 ERA, 6.43 FIP, 1.70 K/BB
C: 6.67 ERA, 6.18 FIP, 1.23 K/BB
D: 6.84 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 2.56 K/BB
E: 7.27 ERA, 5.89 FIP, 3.75 K/BB

The closer of this team has the following numbers:

Closer: 6.75 ERA, 7.87 FIP, 1.86 K/BB

This team currently sits in first place and sports virtually an identical team from last season when they won the world series. Yes, this is the rotation+closer of the Philadelphia Phillies. In order, the letters above are Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Chan Ho Park, Joe Blanton and Cole Hamels. Brad Lidge closes out games for the defending champs.

Myers, Moyer and Blanton, entering play tonight against the Mets, had combined for 23 home runs. Moyer allowed two in the first inning tonight and another in the second, running this tally up to 26 dingers. There are fourteen teams in major league baseball, as in full pitching staffs, that have allowed 26 or fewer home runs. Just about half of the league has allowed as many home runs, or fewer than, these three starters.

Now, Hamels has been hurt by injuries so far, having to leave two games in which he was pitching very well, and these ERA and FIP marks are not likely to hover around their current vicinities. Still, to sit in first place with a rotation putting up those numbers is kind of incredible. Can anyone think of a first place team in the recent past where the five primary starters all posted very ugly numbers?

Manny Ramirez has been suspended for 50 games for failing a test for PEDs. Somewhere, Alex Rodriguez is doing a happy dance, as this will take the spotlight off of him for a while.

This is, honestly, fairly shocking. As much as everyone has said that you can’t really know who is clean and who isn’t, Manny’s one of those guys that there was no real reason to suspect. He’s always been big, he’s always had power, he’s always been a great hitter, and he’s not exactly known for his amazing work ethic. Manny Being Manny never included an intense dedication to making the most of his abilities.

He was just a guy who was born to hit, and he’s been hitting at pretty similar levels for his entire career. Yea, he went bananas on the National League after Boston traded him last year, but did anyone think that was evidence of steroid use?

This is, obviously, a pretty big blow to the Dodgers. They’ve played so well to start the year, and their division rivals are so lousy, that they should be able to survive without Manny for a few months. But still… wow.

Update: Manny is claiming that he took a medication that contained a non-steroidal banned substance. Will be interesting to see how much detail comes out, as guys who have made similar claims in the past have mostly cleared their names by being transparent.

Clayton Kershaw is obviously unprepared for the major leagues. That’s a justifiable statement if you only judge pitchers by ERA. Kershaw’s is 5.46, more than a run higher than last year. Of course, Kershaw is pitching nearly as well if you judge pitchers by FIP, and his peripherals look pretty impressive.

Kershaw is striking out 9.32 batters per nine (8.36 last season), walking 4.18 (4.35), allowing 1.29 homeruns (0.92), and has a BABIP against of .276 (.325), so what gives? Well, a LOB% of 62.5 has a lot to do with that horrendous looking ERA. Consider that league average is right at 71%, and even last year Kershaw flexed a 75.7% strand rate.

Frankly, his strand rate is a bit puzzling given that:

A. Kershaw is striking out a quarter of the batters he faces.
B. Kershaw is getting about 50% flyballs.
C. 30% of those flyballs are of the infield variety.

BIS’ batted ball data shows that Kershaw has actually given up an equal amount of liners and infield flies, which is just silly to think about. Obviously the infield pops will regress, over the last five years the seasonal highs for infield flyballs out of those who qualified are 21% by Tim Wakefield in 2004, also in 2004 Joe Kennedy at 19.6%, and Matt Garza at 18% last season. Pitchers rarely get 20% flyballs, forget about 30%.

Kershaw’s ERA should drop by at least a full run during the course of the season, if not more. He’s pitching wonderfully outside of the homeruns, and those are a product of the flyball heavy batted ball portfolio.

Last year, Matthew Carruth discussed the idea of anchoring, a process in which fans build their opinions of a player’s season around a good or bad stretch at one of the season’s bookends. It takes extreme contradictory performance, like that of CC Sabathia following his abominable first month to shift these opinions. Otherwise, inaccurate claims are bound to be made and the wrong perceptions of a player’s value and quality will persist. This season, anchoring has occurred for many with regards to Tim Lincecum.

For those wondering why analysts tend to place small sample size disclaimers in their articles, this is the underlying reason. Some people just cannot look at two starts or 15 plate appearances and understand that a change in skill or approach is not inherent. Sure, this possibility always exists but it could just be random given that the pre-requisite playing time for stability has not yet been reached.

Lincecum made his first two starts on April 7 and April 12:

4/7: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
4/12: 5.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

All told, his 8.1 innings, 14 hits, 7 earned runs, 6 walks and 10 strikeouts did not exactly do its best to instill confidence. Then again, it was just two starts and thanks to Sabathia’s dreadful start in 2008 + insane dominance from May to September, we now have the perfect response when people get ahead of themselves. Lincecum had two bad starts, like, omg! Hey, Sabathia 08. End of discussion right there.

Around that point, articles surfaced about Lincecum’s release point (which was fine, a maximum of an inch, inch and a half off from last season, which is not significant, and more along the lines of normal home/road discrepancies in the PITCHf/x data), his delivery, and the possibility of injuries. One more bad start and you got the feeling he might get demoted to work on the windup or sent to the DL with a phantom injury.

Since he “figured it out,” Lincecum has tossed 30 innings, surrendered just 20 hits, allowed 6 earned runs, and boasted a K/BB of 40/6. Combine that with his opening starts and his seasonal line now sits at: 6 GS, 38.1 IP, 34 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 50 K. He has a 3.05 ERA and 1.93 FIP. He has produced +1.7 wins in the early part of this season, tied with Johan Santana and Dan Haren for the throne of top non-Greinke pitcher to date.

Lincecum is fine–sorry, Mariners fans–and he is going to have another stellar season. As Dave noted not too long ago there is always going to be information to be gleaned from small sample sizes, but going nuts over two tremendous or abysmal starts from a pitcher is an ailment worthy of statistical surgery. True talent levels don’t just evaporate or disappear. They might shift or slightly argue with pre-season projections, but to think Lincecum truly had become a somewhat different pitcher or was no longer as dominant as last season based on two starts in early April is absolute lunacy.

Earlier today I got to thinking about this past offseason and the discussions housed here involving whether or not the Yankees should sign Derek Lowe or Andy Pettitte. Plenty of opinions flew back and forth but the overwhelming result was that Pettitte would be the better fit for the Yankees given the lower salary and lesser commitment. After all, 1-yr/$10 mil (assuming all incentives kick in) is much easier to handle than 4-yr/$60 mil, especially for a team that had spent a pretty penny on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira.

Lately, however, with the injury to Chien-Ming Wang and the “emergence” of Phil Hughes, I have heard a few fans suggest that Pettitte should pitch out of the bullpen when Wang returns. At first, I wanted to respond by saying that no, Joba does not belong in the bullpen, until it dawned on me that this age old Chamberlain debate had now been pushed upon Pettitte… which made my head hurt even more than the aforementioned age old Chamberlain debates.

Then I began to remember when Pettitte actually did sign and how everyone seemed to assign the term “fifth starter” upon him. As the title of this post suggests, what gives? Why no love for Pettitte? Do people realize he has been one of the best and most reliable pitchers over the last several seasons?

If Pettitte is a fifth starter, he is without question the best fifth starter in baseball right now, given that he would be a #3 in most other teams in the game and perhaps even a #2. Put him on some of the lesser-quality teams like the Nationals, Rockies, and Pirates and he might actually be the ace.

Over the last four seasons, Pettitte has averaged 213 innings and +4.6 wins. His total of +18.3 wins in that span of 2005-08 ranks ninth amongst all pitchers, ahead of both Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett. In 2004, he missed time due to injuries, but here are his win values from 2002-08, excluding that injury plagued 2004 campaign: +4.2, +5.5, +5.8, +3.5, +4.5, +4.4. Granted, I’m not here to make any sort of Hall of Fame case for the guy, but rather to point out he has had a terribly underrated career and he is still producing at a very high level. In fact, through five starts this season he has already amassed +1 win.

If the Yankees have a fifth starter, it sure isn’t Andy Pettitte, and if any of their starters is going to be relegated into bullpen duty, it should not be Andy Pettitte. People really need to start realizing that what he brings to the table is not a marginal upgrade over an average or replacement pitcher but rather almost the guarantee of +3.5 to +4 wins.

This afternoon, the Twins decided they’d seen enough of Alexi Casilla, who entered the day as their starting second baseman. A 24-year-old switch hitter who fits the athletic, groundball/contact skillset that the Twins prefer, Ron Gardenhire just got tired of the mental mistakes. Casilla has driven Minnesota’s management nuts with his sloppy plays, his lack of fundamentals, and his general underachievement.

Then, of course, there’s this.

May, 2008: .340/.417/.520
June, 2008: .304/.330/.412
July, 2008: .308/.333/.385
August, 2008: .234/.260/.362
September, 2008: .221/.321/.253
April, 2009: .174/.231/.202
May, 2009: .135/.233/.135

I’m not a big believer in trend analysis, but you rarely see that kind of direct line with no variation. His OPS by month has declined every single month since last May (he began the season in the minors, so there’s no April data for ’08), where he went from great to good to okay to bad to really bad to miserable to holy crap we’ve seen enough.

At this point, I think we probably have to assume that Casilla is not going to make it in Minnesota. He showed some promise last year, but for a guy with no power and an aggressive approach at the plate, his margin for error is very small. When he gets into funks like this offensively, he’s going to be really bad, and he’s not exactly making up for it with gold glove defense at second base either.

The Twins are going to look at Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris to fill the void, but they’re going to need to make a move to bring in a new second baseman if they want to try to get back in the AL Central race. At this point, Casilla’s probably out of the picture for good, and they don’t have a quality option for the long term available.

It will be interesting to see how long Casilla stays in Triple-A before he gets the change-of-scenery trade.

2008 Draft Slot: Eighth overall
Top Pick: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia
Best Pick: Gordon Beckham
Keep an Eye On: Kenny Williams Jr…. just kidding. Dexter Carter, RHP, Old Dominion (13th round)
Notes: The club got an absolutely steal with Dexter Carter, who posted some ugly college numbers despite possessing good stuff (including a 96 mph fastball). His control has been solid in pro ball and so have his numbers, although he has pitched in rookie ball and low A-ball, so we need to see how he does in high A-ball and Double-A before we get too excited. Gordon Beckham is growing on me as a prospect, but I am still not his biggest fan. Third baseman Brent Morel looks like a pretty good third-round pick. He’s hitting just .258 in high A-ball, but his BABIP is .264, he’s hitting more homers and his contact rates are pretty good.

2007 Draft Slot: 25th overall
Top Pick: Aaron Poreda, LHP, University of San Francisco
Best Pick: Aaron Poreda
Worst Pick: Nevin Griffith, RHP, Florida high school (Second round)
Notes: Nevin Griffith gets tabbed as the worst pick of the draft mostly because he was taken in the second round and he’s only pitched 20 pro innings thanks to Tommy John surgery. Right-hander John Ely was a nice third-round pick and could develop into a solid No. 3 or 4 starter. Aaron Poreda has great velocity on the fastball but the secondary stuff is still lacking. He could be a dominating closer.

2006 Draft Slot: 29th overall
Top Pick: Kyle McCulloch, RHP, University of Texas
Best Pick: John Shelby Jr., 2B/OF, University of Kentucky (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: Kyle McCulloch
Notes: John Shelby Jr. is by far the best pick of the draft and the club really, really missed with Kyle McCulloch, as well as the second and third round picks… OK, basically all the picks were bad. The White Sox could have had Joba Chamberlain (41st overall) or Adrian Cardenas (37th) instead of the Texas southpaw.

2009 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College players, usually an arm if available
MLB Club Need: Center field, Third base, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Outfield, First base, Second base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Third base, Shortstop
Notes: Does Kenny have any more draft-eligible sons? OK… I’m done now. The White Sox had a nice draft in 2008, so it will be interesting to see how organization does in 2009 with a couple extra picks in the first two rounds.

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for clinching the first playoff spot of the 2009 season.

Okay, fine, it’s only May 6th. The Dogers have another 134 games to play. Things could go wrong. The whole team might get the swine flu. Short of that, however, this division race is over.

Heading into the season, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks were the two leading contenders for the division, with the Giants kind of lurking as an interesting team if they can find a couple of hitters. The Rockies and Padres were also-rans. The Dodgers looked like a better team than Arizona, but injuries to guys like Hiroki Kuroda threatened to potentially leave the door open for the D’Backs if they could get some production from their young hitters and All-Star seasons from Webb/Haren/Scherzer.

That’s out the window, though. Brandon Webb is on the DL, the D’Backs offense is a mess, and they are now 8.5 games behind the surging Dodgers, who are playing like the best team in baseball despite using Eric Stults and Jeff Weaver in the rotation. The Giants stand as the only team within seven games of LA in the division, and they’re struggling to stay above .500 because they have the worst offense in the National League.

Quite simply, there just aren’t any challengers to the Dodgers throne. At 20-8, they could play .500 ball the rest of the year and finish with 87 wins. The Giants would have to play .548 baseball (75-62) to finish with 88 wins and nip LA by a game. The Diamondbacks would have to play .570 baseball (77-58) to finish with 88 wins and squeak past the Dodgers. And that’s assuming that the LA falls apart and plays .500 baseball the rest of the year.

In reality, we should probably expect the Dodgers to play something like .550 baseball for the remainder of the season. They aren’t 20-8 good, but they’re an above average baseball team, and their +48 run differential is easily the best in baseball. If the Dodgers play .550 ball the rest of the way, they’ll win 94 games. I’m not sure anyone else in the rest of the division will win 84 games, much less 94.

It’s early, yes. Baseball is a crazy sport where all kinds of unexpected things can happen. The D’backs went 20-7 last year to start the year and didn’t win the division. That’s okay – I’m still more than willing to say that the NL West race is over and done with. Thanks for playing, everyone. We’ll see you in October, Dodger fans.