The Dodgers entered spring training with guaranteed rotation spots assigned to Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf, and Clayton Kershaw. The fifth spot was largely up for grabs between the likes of Eric Stults, James McDonald, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Weaver, and Eric Milton. The latter three had battled injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness in recent years but had a previously established track record that merited a low risk opportunity.

Well, Stults seemingly won out, but an injury to Kuroda opened up another spot, affording McDonald the chance to build upon his relief success last season and add starts to his resume. In his last three starts, McDonald surrendered eight runs in 11 innings with a 4/11 K/BB ratio. Joe Torre was not impressed and opted to move McDonald back to the bullpen.

Jeff Weaver got the call to replace McDonald after an impressive four-inning relief outing in which he held the Padres scoreless. After two solid starts, Weaver’s seasonal line sits at 14 innings with a 2.57 ERA and 3.01 FIP. He isn’t the same guy from the Tigers days or the first Dodgers stint but Weaver at least deserved to stay in the rotation.

Instead, Joe Torre has called upon Eric Milton to get at least one start in favor of Weaver. I’m not sure if Jeff is hurt, but I would hope he is for the sake of this decision. Granted, Weaver’s sample of performance is small, but when evaluating pitchers from start to start, small samples and scouting info are the only bits of info available.

The Dodgers certainly have depth at their fifth starter spot with the aforementioned quintet pitching in either the show or at the farm, but Weaver was pitching pretty well. Did he get hurt, or is Torre simply trying to see what he has with Milton?

When the Rays signed Pat Burrell, I made an ill-fated comparison to Paul Sorrento. Reflecting on that moment, I’m in utter regret every time I bring myself to look at this graph:

For those unfamiliar with Sorrento’s place in Rays history, he was signed prior to 1998 to be the team’s first big-time DH. From 1995-1997 (his 29-31 year-old seasons) Sorrento hit .268/.352/.511 in 1,433 plate appearances between the Indians and Mariners. Over his next two seasons with the Rays, he totaled 843 plate appearances, hit only 28 homeruns, and his line fell to .229/.329/.403. Suffice to say, this was not what the Rays had in mind when they signed him.

Burrell is coming off his 29-31 year-old seasons in which he hit .254/.385/.504 in 1,810 plate appearances for the Phillies. Thus far this season, Burrell is hitting .250/.349/.315. A stiff neck has sidelined Burrell at least three times this season and leaves questions about whether the stiff neck is really a bulging disk.

Pitchers are taking a more aggressive approach to Burrell this season. Throwing him 60% first pitch strikes and quite a few more curveballs than normal. As a result, Burrell is making more contact than ever before, but the ball has only left the playing field once. A few close calls have resulted in long singles thanks to Burrell’s below average foot speed. His speed score of 1.6 almost seems generous.

Moving forward, it seems asinine in expecting Burrell’s HR/FB% to remain at 2.5%. Over the last three seasons that number has been 18.1%, 16.2%, and 18%, so we should be looking at a few handfuls of Burrell homeruns from here on out. That is unless Burrell misses even more time with whatever it is that ails his neck.

Hopefully it’s not Paul Sorrento.

Well, our site continues to expand, adding more and more features at an almost exponential rate. The most recent addition incorporated Dan Szymborski’s in-season ZiPS projections into a sortable page. We now have the capability to not only find out who looks the best or worst from this moment on but also to see how prior stats and the updated true talent expectations combine to form the new end of season projection.

Naturally, once the data was implemented, I raced over to the leaderboards and jumped to the very last page on the pitchers section. Yeah, I wanted to see which starters projected the worst from here on out. Now, starters fitting this bill are not automatically the guys that were terrible from the get-go, who have pitched very poorly thus far after abysmal pre-season projections. The list could also include some hurlers with awful projections who have pitched well and are bound to regress.

Over the rest of the season, here are the worst updated projections for starting pitchers that will realistically toe the rubber:

Adam Eaton, Orioles:       19 GS,  99 IP, 1.53 K/BB, 6.09 ERA
Franklin Morales, Rockies: 19 GS,  97 IP, 0.89 K/BB, 6.03 ERA
Rick Porcello, Tigers:     20 GS,  95 IP, 1.19 K/BB, 5.97 ERA
Dustin Moseley, Angels:    20 GS, 111 IP, 1.71 K/BB, 5.92 ERA

Assuming that these all come to fruition, the worst starters by season’s end would be:

Adam Eaton, Orioles:       25 GS, 130.1 IP, 1.55 K/BB, 6.35 ERA
Carlos Silva, Mariners:    27 GS, 149.2 IP, 1.94 K/BB, 6.31 ERA
Sidney Ponson, Royals:     21 GS, 125.0 IP, 1.28 K/BB, 5.83 ERA
Franklin Morales, Rockies: 21 GS, 101.0 IP, 1.01 K/BB, 5.83 ERA

These in-season projections alter whenever new data enters the sample but they provide a solid snapshot of what has occurred to date and how that affects our knowledge of a player’s true talent level. If Radhames Liz (not shown here due to not making any starts yet but clearly the worst in both areas) and Eaton live down to their projections, they are not likely to garner 19-20 more starts, skewing the playing time results. Still, this is an incredibly useful tool when it comes to determining the extent to which performance up to a certain point is meaningful.

2008 Draft Slot: 12th overall
Top Pick: Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami
Best Pick: Jemile Weeks
Keep an Eye On: Jeremy Barfield, OF, Texas junior college (Eighth round)
Notes: Son of Toronto great Jesse and brother of Cleveland’s Josh, Jeremy Barfield has good bloodlines and plus arm strength that would make his father proud. He’s only appeared in 11 low-A ball games so far this year but he’s started well with a .359 average and four homers. Barfield, 20, also had a solid debut and may have slipped a bit in the draft due to some makeup concerns. Jemile Weeks, brother of Milwaukee’s Rickie Weeks, has yet to appear in a regular season game due a hip injury, although he is expected back by the end of May. Given that speed is a big part of his game, it remains to be seen what kind of long-term impact the injury will have, if any. Prep outfielder Rashun Dixon (10th round) is another player to keep an eye on, although he’s very raw.

2007 Draft Slot: 26th overall
Top Pick: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
Best Pick: Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, University of Virginia (Supplemental first round, 41st overall)
Worst Pick: Grant Desme, OF, Cal Poly U (Second round)
Notes: With five picks before the third round, the A’s picked up some minor league depth, as well as a few players who could make an impact in Oakland before too long. The draft would have been even better if the club had been able to come to terms with Daniel Schlereth, who went to Arizona 26th overall in ’08, Collin Cowgill, who was also drafted by Arizona in ’08, and Seth Blair, who headed to Arizona State University and could be a top pick in 2010. Already 23, Grant Desme is currently playing in low-A after appearing in just 14 games during his first two seasons, due to injuries. Even if he can get back on track, he needs to move quickly. RHP James Simmons was supposed to move quickly but hasn’t and should top out as a No. 3 or 4 starter. The excitement over Sean Doolittle has been tempered a bit now that he’s posted modest numbers at both double-A and triple-A.

2006 Draft Slot: 66th overall (Second round)
Top Pick: Trevor Cahill, RHP, California high school
Best Pick: Trevor Cahill
Worst Pick: Matt Sulentic, OF, Texas high school (Third round)
Notes: When you lack picks before the second round, you need to make the most of the choices you do have. Oakland did a nice job with Trevor Cahill, who is already in the rotation, but Matt Sulentic hasn’t looked all that good outside of his debut season in 2006. He’s still young (21), though, and hit .309 last year in high-A ball (in a good hitter’s park). Andrew Bailey, currently working out of the A’s bullpen, was a nice find in the sixth round.

2009 Draft Slot: 13th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College bats or prep arms
MLB Club Need: Third base, First base, Starting pitching
Organizational Need: Center field, Third base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: First base, Second base, Right-handed pitching
Notes: Thanks to the free agent signing of Orlando Cabrera, the A’s will be in unfamiliar territory this season: The club will not have any supplemental picks and it lacks a second round selection. The organization will really be tested to find quality over quantity as this is a similar situation to 2006, when the club still managed to nab MLB starter Trevor Cahill with its first pick (second round) and reliever Andrew Bailey in the sixth round.

Yesterday, Rob Neyer blogged about the Rangers improved pitching. Thanks to improved run prevention, Texas finds themselves in first place in the AL West, playing better than almost anyone could have expected. However, the continuing conclusion that ERA = pitching throws Rob’s analysis off a bit, because the Rangers pitching has actually been worse this year than it was last year.

As a whole, the Rangers pitching staff is averaging 3.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, and 1.25 HR/9 for a 5.17 FIP this season. Compare that with 3.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9 for a 4.83 FIP last season. The walks are down a bit, but so are the strikeouts, and the home runs are up, which more than offsets the drop in walk rate. Texas’ pitching staff isn’t doing any better this year than they did last year. They still aren’t very good.

Why is their ERA lower then? Texas got on the defensive bandwagon over the off-season, and their decision to realign the team in order to improve the glovework has made them significantly better. It’s the defense, not the pitching.

It all started with the decision to go with 20-year-old Elvis Andrus at shortstop. The kid is something else, range wise, making a couple of plays the last few nights that were just ridiculous. It’s very easy to see why scouts were so high on his defensive abilities, and through the first five weeks of the season, UZR agrees – his UZR/150 through five weeks is +8.9. Expect that to go up significantly in next week’s update, which will reflect some of the plays he’s made recently.

Adding a really good glove at short allowed the team to move Michael Young to third base, and while the transition hasn’t gone as smoothly as they would have liked, he’s still a significant upgrade over the butchery they got at the position last year from Ramon Vazquez, Chris Davis, Hank Blalock, German Duran, and Travis Metcalf. The Rangers got a -26.7 UZR from their third baseman last year, and even adjusting to a new position, Young is going to give them much better glovework than that.

Having Young at the hot corner also shifted Davis across the infield, where he’s a much better fit defensively. He’s not as good as his early season +24 UZR/150, but he’s a better glove guy than Blalock, and he’ll give them average to above average defense from the first base spot.

By shifting the assets around to make room for Andrus, the Rangers have drastically improved their infield defense at three spots. Not surprisingly, their team-wide UZR has gone from -51.7 in 2008 to +9.5 in 2009. This is expressly manifest in the lower team ERA that Neyer noted yesterday – their 4.72 ERA is 45 points lower than their 5.17 FIP, giving them the fourth largest gap between how well they are preventing runs and how well their pitchers are actually performing.

This isn’t an accident. The Rangers made a conscious decision over the winter to upgrade their defense, and it’s paying dividends early on. They might not win the AL West, but they’re better than most people thought, and they’re headed in the right direction.

Last season, in 192 plate appearances Willie Bloomquist recorded 46 hits, 45 of which were singles. That’s good for a batting line of .279/.377/.285, or an ISO of 0.006, one of the lowest in major league history. Naturally, Bloomquist has followed his powerless exhibition with 70 plate appearances and a .509 slugging percentage this season.

Ignore the .408 BABIP, the fact that Bloomuqist only has four extra base hits, and that his HR/FB% is well above career norms, and just focus on the sample sizes at play. Which is more likely to tell us of Willie Bloomquist’s true talent level:

A) ~70 plate appearances with a .500+ slugging
B) ~1,400 plate appearances with a .324 slugging

It seems like common sense, but sometimes our desires and optimism as fans lead us astray to the point where a few weeks’ worth of plate appearances that deviate upward from the norm cause us to start reasoning against the past. Bloomquist played at Safeco Park, which is known to sap right-handed power. The Mariners clubhouse was reportedly a miserable place last season, perhaps that affected Bloomquist as well. Maybe the Royals coaching staff is better too.

Even if you park adjust and somehow attempt and objectively credit his improved power to coaching and an improved atmosphere, you still won’t be able to add nearly 0.200 points of slugging – and if you did, you probably did it wrong. At the end of the day this is still Willie Bloomquist. The hot start is certainly going to help his end of season numbers, but the reason ZiPS projects Bloomquist to finish with a .385 slugging is not because it hates him, but because there’s an entire body of evidence suggesting against Bloomquist’s new found power stroke.

Following a two-year stint with the Phillies, southpaw closer Billy Wagner up and signed a 4 yr/$43 mil deal with the division rival Mets. The deal would last from 2006-09 with an option for 2010. In his first season with the Mets, Wagner posted a 2.84 FIP and provided two wins above replacement, a very solid figure given that relievers do not accrue much in the win value column thanks to such small samples of data.

In 2007, Wagner added +1.4 wins with a 3.09 FIP. Last year, despite missing time with injuries, he still managed to produce +1.2 wins. Extrapolated out over a full season that performance would, at the very least, match the year prior. His injuries were very significant, however, leading to Tommy John surgery which kept him out of action down the stretch in 2008 and was set to sideline the flamethrower until the end of the 2009 campaign.

In the offseason, the Mets went out and signed Francisco Rodriguez to a lucrative three year deal, and traded for JJ Putz of the Mariners. Putz has not lived up to expectations thus far but the season is still young and plenty of time exists to turn things around. What happens in September, though? Wagner comes back, all but assured that his option for 2010 will not be exercised thanks to the presence of K-Rod, but still needs to audition for his future employer, whomever that may be.

Assuming he does return in September, and that Putz turns his season around, that could be one very scary three-headed monster at the back end of the bullpen. Wagner might only be used in low leverage situations, but you have to figure he would still be effective given his track record. The Mets may have choked away playoff berths at the end of both 2007 and 2008, but if Wagner can return around that time, his presence might help prevent the trifecta.

2008 Draft Slot: 20th overall
Top Pick: Joshua Fields, RHP, University of Georgia
Best Pick: Brett Lorin, RHP, Long Beach State (Fifth round)
Keep an Eye On: Aaron Pribanic, RHP, University of Nebraska (Third round)
Notes: This draft was not overly exciting, especially with the use of a first-round pick on a college senior, who could end up topping out as a set-up man. It also took far too long to get Joshua Fields under contract. He currently has a 6.00 ERA (although a 3.20 FIP) with nine walks and 15 Ks in 10 Double-A games. Brett Lorin is absolutely dealing in low A-ball with a 1.00 ERA (2.53 FIP) in six starts. He has a nice repertoire and good size (6’7”, 245 lbs) and could develop into a No. 3 starter.

2007 Draft Slot: 11th overall
Top Pick: Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Quebec (Canada) high school
Best Pick: Phillippe Aumont
Worst Pick: Matt Mangini, 3B, Oklahoma State University (Supplemental first round)
Notes: Seattle received some flack for moving Phillippe Aumont into the bullpen so early in his career, but he has absolutely thrived since the move and is dominating in a very, very good hitter’s league. He could be in Double-A before too long – and he’s only 20 years old. Clubs knew Matt Mangini had below-average power for a third baseman, but he was supposed to hit for a high average. His career minor league batting average is .240.

Bonus: My 2007 pre-draft interview with Phillippe Aumont, who really thought he was getting drafted by the Washington Nationals.

2006 Draft Slot: Fifth overall
Top Pick: Brandon Morrow, RHP, University of California
Best Pick: Chris Tillman, RHP, California high school (Second round)
Worst Pick: Tony Butler, LHP, Wisconsin high school (Third round)
Notes: The organization has selected three right-handed relievers with its last three first-round selections, although all three have the potential to be big-league closers. In fact, Brandon Morrow already is the Mariners’ late-game stopper. With Morrow seemingly out of the starting rotation for good, right-hander Chris Tillman has a chance to overtake him as the best pitcher from the draft. Unfortunately, Tillman was sent to Baltimore in the ill-fated Erik Bedard trade. Tony Butler’s career has been littered with injuries, but luckily he was also sent to Baltimore.

2009 Draft Slot: Second overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Pitchers… college arms… relievers…
MLB Club Need: Third base, First base, Starting pitching
Organizational Need: Starting pitching, Left-handed pitching, First base, Second base
Organizational Strength: Outfield (especially center), Third base, Catcher
Notes: Obviously, the organization would love to have San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg fall to them, but that is highly unlikely to happen. There is no clear second-overall pick, although a lot of clubs are high on CF/1B Dustin Ackley. The club can really add depth to the system with this draft since it also owns the 27th overall pick, as well as the first pick of the supplemental first round (Both of which come from Raul Ibanez’ signing with Philadelphia).

The Phillies didn’t make many big splashes this offseason outside of signing Raul Ibanez, but they did manage to avoid arbitration with every eligible player. Some players even signed extensions buying out more arb-eligible years. One of these players was Jayson Werth, who signed a 2-yr/$10 mil extension on the heels of a +5.3 win season. I chimed in around that time basically stating that he should easily be worth the money. Through his first 30 games this season, Werth has done nothing to dissuade this opinion.

After his performance last night, Werth boasts a .295/.395/.562 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases and a .421 wOBA. Four of those stolen bases took place last night, three of which occurred in the same inning. In the bottom of the seventh, with the Phillies leading 4-2, Werth singled off of Will Ohman with one out. Ohman must have tossed over to first at least six times before striking out Ryan Howard. With two outs, Werth decided to make something happen and stole second base. Ohman then pitched around Jimmy Rollins before putting him on when the count reached 3-1.

Raul Ibanez stepped in and both Rollins and Werth stole. Ibanez then walked. Pedro Feliz came up to the plate with the bases loaded, but after the fifth pitch thrown his way, Werth stole home! And a straight steal of home no less, not a situation in which he took the base when the catcher threw to nab another potential basestealer. Werth’s steal of a home was not as straight, per se, as Jacoby Ellsbury’s this season when the Red Sox centerfielder actually swiped home plate on a pitch. Werth’s is what gets classified as a delayed steal, wherein the baserunner takes his secondary lead following the delivery of the pitch but steals later than anticipated, catchingeveryone off guard.

Ronald Belisario delivered the 2-2 pitch to Feliz. Russell Martin caught it and lazily threw the ball back to the pitcher, just as every catcher does following every non-wild pitch. This time, however, Werth anticipated the half-hearted throw and bolted for home. Belisario responded as quickly as one could but his throw did not make it to Martin in time. His fourth stolen base of the night, Werth tied a Phillies record for steals in a game that had not been reached since Garry Maddox did so in 1978. And Werth’s three swipes in the same inning tied a franchise record not matched since Pete Rose accomplished the feat in 1980.

Many people clamor on about Werth’s “inability” to hit same-handed pitching, claiming that his numbers in 2006 and 2007 were inflated due to predominantly facing southpaws. This claim does hold some water, as Werth led baseball in home runs against lefties last season and is among the leaders in slash stats against them over the last few seasons. However, even if you add in some plate appearances against righties and assumed he would hit them at around the same rate he had been, his overall numbers do not drop precipitously. It is essentially the difference between a .385 wOBA and a .375 wOBA, if that. So, yes, his numbers have been inflated, but not very inflated and not enough to say he isn’t a truly great player right now.

This season, he has a .276/.378/.526 line against same-handed pitching which becomes more meaningful given his increased ability to hit righthanders down the stretch last season. A well above average fielder in a corner outfield spot who can also play average or better defense in centerfield, who mangles southpaws and is improving against righties, with the power and speed to easily go 20/20 in a season is a beast of a player. Because he didn’t get full playing time until 29 years old and is overshadowed by the likes of Utley, Howard and Rollins, Werth has not really instilled plenty of confidence in fans outside of Philadelphia with regards to an ability to sustain +4 to +5 win performance. After this season, that should all be assuaged.

A while ago I wrote a piece on Tim Lincecum’s early season struggles. Since then, not only has he rebounded, but he’s looking like the best pitcher in the National League, sorry Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, and Dan Haren.

Lincecum’s FIP sits at 1.82, almost a full run lower than last year, his strikeout rate is up to 11.77 per nine, and his walk totals are down to 2.64. Oh, and he’s giving up even fewer homeruns The most amazing aspect of Lincecum’s turn around is his BABIP against. It was high before and it’s still high now. His career BABIP against is .312, this year his BABIP against is .368, that’s a lot of regression to go.

As for his pitches, Lincecum’s fastball is still down in velocity, 92.3 MPH instead of 94 MPH. His slider is being used more – or at least pitches registering as sliders – his curve usage is up and his change-up usage is basically static. Per our PitchFx data, Lincecum’s fastball is moving about a half-inch more in to righties, same with his change-up, and his curve is moving more vertically and less horizontally.

In that piece I also showed how Lincecum’s release point had changed, and speculated such as the cause for the lack of control, well, take a look at the release points that first start versus his last home start:

A little more clustered, don’t you think? If Lincecum keeps pitching like this, he’s going to make me eat my words when I wrote he may never top his 2008 season.