Over three games Mark Buehrle was perfect through 15 innings. Starting on July 18, when Nick Markakis flied out to center in the 8th, through Thursday’s perfect game and ending in the sixth inning of last night’s game not one batter reached base. As a result Buehrle set the major league record with 45 straight batters retired. Coincidentally the previous record holder Bobby Jenks, tied with Jim Barr for 41 batters, was sitting in the bullpen watching as it happened.

Over those 45 batters Buehrle got nine strikeouts, 22 ground outs, eight fly outs, two line outs and four pop outs. A truly amazing performance. I wanted to partially analyze partially commemorate the streak by looking at the location of Buehrle’s pitches. The image is a little messy, but there are some striking trends.

To begin with look how much he is in the zone. If you are going to go 15 innings without walking anyone, this is what it looks like. Beyond that though, against RHBs, he stayed out of the heart of the plate. One lonely curve down the middle, and everything else in this donut shaped area along the edges of the strike zone. Tons of pitches in the zone, but nothing in the heart, that is a recipe for success. Against righties you can see Buehrle’s plan, cutters and fastballs up and in and changeups low-and-away. That is just a beautiful pattern of pitch types and locations.

As I talked about in my Washburn one-hitter post you can’t get a no-hitter or one-hitter without lots of help from the defense. So here are all the outs at US Cellular during the streak, the one Markakis fly out from the 18th and all his balls in play during the perfect game.

You can see that amazing DeWayne Wise catch. Here are all his outs at the Metrodome during the streak.

Only one ball in play out of the infield and no line drives.

As a whole, notwithstanding the Wise catch, these were some very fieldable balls in play. Only 2 LDs over 36 balls in play, probalby a result of Buehrle staying out of the heart of the plate. In addition, out of 12 fly balls four were infield fly balls, the easiest balls in play to field. Three of these came on those up-and-in fastballs and cutters to RHBs, so Buehrle gets credit for those very fieldable balls in play. Still the defense needs to be given credit, 22 ground balls and all outs, nice work.

An amazing 15 innings for Buehrle, and wonderful for us that we could watch this piece of baseball history.

With trade winds swirling around him, Scott Kazmir had his best start of the season last night, shutting down the Yankees over seven strong innings. It was the first time all year he’d managed to complete the seventh inning, and only the fourth start where he’d walked less than two batters. His velocity was still down compared to previous years (topping out at 93), but several ticks above where it was when he landed on the disabled list.

Over the six starts Kazmir has made since coming off the DL, Kazmir has thrown 35 1/3 IP, walked 12, struck out 27, and allowed just five home runs. Before landing on the DL, he had a 29/35 BB/K in 45 innings over nine starts. The rest certainly did him some good.

The question for Tampa Bay and potential Kazmir suitors is what they should expect going forward. ZIPS is extremely bullish on Kazmir, but that’s mostly based on his strong strikeout rates from 2007 and 2008, which probably went away with his velocity. Even the post-DL Kazmir is only averaging 6.95 strikeouts per nine innings, way down from his whiff numbers the last two years.

If he’s a 4 BB/7 K/1 HR per nine inning guy, that’s about a +1.5 to +2 win pitcher. Kazmir is under contract for $20 million in 2010/2011, and then a team option of $13.5 million for 2012 or a $2.5 million buyout. So, he’s either going to cost $22 million for two years or $33 million for three years.

+1.5 to +2.0 win pitchers aren’t worth $11 million a year. However, there is of course the chance (however small) that Kazmir’s stuff and strikeout rates rebound, and he gets back to something more like the +4 win pitcher he was from 2005-2007. That built-in upside has to be factored into his cost, and probably pushes his true market value to somewhere in the $10 to $11 million neighborhood on a short term deal.

In other words, Kazmir’s deal isn’t a terrible one. It’s not a bargain in any sense, but it’s probably not that far off what he’d get if he was a free agent. Given the ratio between his talent level and cost, he should have trade value right around zero. He’s not a boat anchor that teams won’t touch, but the price tag is high enough that the Rays shouldn’t expect any real talent coming back in return.

If Tampa wants financial flexibility, they can probably dump Kazmir on someone with the payroll space to take a risk. Given their budget issues and pitching depth, it’s probably not a bad idea to move him now.

Tony La Russa has more managerial wins to his credit than anyone not named Connie Mack or John McGraw, probably making him a lock for Cooperstown. While measuring a manager’s worth is a murky task, one thing we know just from reading the news on a regular basis is that some managers can earn their keep by making good players feel comfortable and causing them to want to stick around. Or in La Russa’s case, there can at times be the opposite effect.

La Russa and Scott Rolen publicly feuded during the 2006 playing time after Rolen was benched in favor of Scott Spiezio for a game in the NLCS. The bad blood continued to boil into the 2007 season, and while we don’t know for sure what happened behind closed doors, neither manager or player seemed to be man enough to put their egos and differences aside. In order to placate his Hall of Fame manager, newly installed GM John Mozeliak traded Rolen to the Blue Jays for Troy Glaus the following off-season in what was a “who will stay healthier?” challenge trade.

The trade looked good for the Cards after last season — Glaus played 151 games and was good for 5 WAR, while Rolen played in just 115 games and was worth 3. But a healthy Rolen has already been worth 3 WAR this year for Toronto while Glaus hasn’t taken a big league at bat. Glaus has recently suffered yet another setback in his recovery process from shoulder surgery. In Glaus’ absence, the Cardinals were forced to trade for Mark DeRosa mid-season at the expense of their two best relief prospects. Glaus is a Type A free agent this winter, but it’s hard to see him getting offered arbitration. Rolen on the other hand has another year on his contract and is generating interest in the trade market.

Adam Kennedy is another player that recently has butted heads with TLR. He mostly said the right things to the press about the lack of playing time he was getting, but for someone who was worth 1.8 WAR in 115 games, he did deserve to get in more games. While he wasn’t much with the stick (.305 wOBA in ’08), he was downright nifty with the glove (22 UZR/150). The moment he showed up to spring training, TLR requested that Kennedy be shown the door, which Kennedy was. The Cardinals are paying all of Kennedy’s $4M salary, who has been worth 1.5 WAR for the A’s.

The move was viewed as downright bizarre with no apparent replacement in sight. The Cardinals have since tried fitting a square piece into a round peg, making Skip Schumaker their everyday second baseman. Schumaker was a slightly above average player last season (2.4 WAR) and has been about the same with the bat this season, but he’s on his way to being the worst defensive second baseman in the game with a -9 UZR and -14 UZR per 150 games. His foibles with the leather are killing his value; he’s been a below average 2B with just 0.5 WAR.

Appeasing La Russa has been said to be one of the big motives for the Cardinals to gut their farm system to get Matt Holliday and DeRosa. He’s in the last year of his contract and wants to see some commitment from ownership before considering signing an extension. Maybe if he didn’t run off his players with these sort of immature personality clashes, the trades never would have been necessary. The Cardinals’ short-sighted attempts to assuage La Russa has razed their farm system and driven away productive big league players. I can only fear what will happen to the Cardinals if they keep him around longer.

Meet the newest member of the A’s, 26-year-old Tommy Everidge. Physically, Everidge looks like Eric Hinske plus about 50 pounds. As recently as last week Everidge was playing some third base in the minors, but he’s mostly a first baseman/designated hitter. Everidge debuted last night, smacking his first career hit, a double off the Green Monster, versus Jonathan Papelbon. Not a bad way to start your career in the majors.

Everidge isn’t even the most beloved hefty slugger with the addition of Brett Wallace last week, but he’s the one A’s fans get to take joy in watching first. Selected in the 10th round of the 2004 draft by the A’s out of Sonoma State University, it’s safe to call Everidge a bit of a local favorite. Since starting his majors career Everidge has hit well at just about every level, take a look at his numbers at the top two levels:

AAA (192 PA) .382/.432/.636
AA (903) .290/.358/.474

Everidge strikes out a fair amount and walks, although not at the levels you may be assuming, and his ISO is usually in the .180+ range. Truth be told, he lacks prospect status. His age, less than spectacular bat, and lack of a true position leave him in a bit of a limbo in terms of where he fits on a team; especially a team with Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Giambi, Jack Cust, and even the disabled Daric Barton floating around. Everidge is a right-handed platoon mate with defensive limitations that leave him stuck between first base and DH. T Or otherwise the player type that is about the easiest to find, right behind left-handed reliever.

Everidge makes for a nice local story and probably nothing else. At least he’ll always be able to tell his kids and grandkids about his double off Papelbon though.

For the second time in a week the Boston Red Sox make a move with a player previously designated for assignment. This time they swap Mark Kotsay (and cash) to their brothers in stockings for Brian Anderson. On the surface, the deal is a bit confusing. The two are essentially equals – although Kotsay has a better bat – but Anderson is nearly seven years younger. Kenny Williams cooperated with Anderson’s request to be traded and really didn’t change his team’s outlook much in the process.

Anderson is a former first round pick from the University of Arizona with the coolest middle name in the majors (Nikola). The potential Anderson flashed in Triple-A as a 23-year-old in 2005 (.295/.360/.469) has never shone through at the major league level. The White Sox tried giving him the center field job back in 2006, but he never hit or fielded well enough to take it. Since his role has shifted from future starter to defensive sub and fourth outfielder. Through nearly 900 career plate appearances Anderson is hitting .225/.288/.364. Only 27, Anderson did flash some signs of power last season while hitting lefties pretty well. Maybe his future lies as a platoon player, though it’s hard to see the Red Sox splitting time with Jacoby Ellsbury or J.D. Drew.

Kotsay is what he is, a left-handed hitter with some defensive flexibility in the outfield and at first. I doubt he sees too much playing time so the fact that his best days are behind him shouldn’t matter too much. Ostensibly a replacement level player, he’ll fill Anderson’s shoes fine. Or, if Williams is feeling generous, he’ll use some of the cash to buy Kotsay his own pair of cleats.

With the deadline only a few days away, GMs will be hard-pressed to find a more generic trade.

Over the weekend Tom Tango linked an interview Brian Bannister did talking about how he used PITCH/x information to change his approach this year. It is a really interesting interview that I urge you to listen to. This morning Harry Pavlidis posted a great breakdown of the things Bannister talked about. I wanted to expand on a couple of things Harry looked at.

As some of you might know Bannister is a student of sabremetrics. Back in 2007 when he had a great ERA, build largely on a unsustainably low BABIP, he understood what was happening and that his current approach would not work going forward. In the interview he talked about going into 2008 looking to increase his strikeout rate to decrease his FIP. To do so he tried to work on his four-seam fastball. As we know it didn’t work. His strikeouts didn’t increase, his BABIP regressed and he had a very poor 2009. So going into 2009 he realized the other way to increase his FIP would be to increase his GB rate and thus decrease his HRs. So going into 2009 he wanted to stop using his four-seam fastball as much and replace it with a cutter that he had throw in the minors but given up. The cutter has less ‘rise’ and gets more ground balls. He also talked about changing the grip on his changeup to throw a power change, which results in a changeup with less ‘rise’ and thus get more ground balls.

I wanted to look at this change in approach of replacing his four-seam fastball with a cutter as his main pitch and the change in his changeup. First I went through and reclassified his pitches for this year and last year since both BIS and PITCHf/x are mislabeling his cutter.

+--------------------+-------+-------+
|                    |  2008 |  2009 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+
| Four-Seam Fastball |  0.58 |  0.23 |
| Cutter/Slider      |  0.20 |  0.51 |
| Changeup           |  0.13 |  0.16 |
| Curveball          |  0.09 |  0.10 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+

I had a hard time telling the difference between his cutter and slider. To the best of my understanding I think in 2008 most of those are sliders and in 2009 mostly cutters. So the big difference is in exchanging his main pitch from a four-seam fastball to a cutter, just as Bannister said in the interview. Here is a comparison of his 2008 four-seam fastball to his 2009 cutter to see the results of this shift.

+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                    |  zone | whiff | oswing| GB/BIP|
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Four-Seam Fastball |  0.59 |  0.11 |  0.20 |  0.30 | 
| Cutter             |  0.58 |  0.10 |  0.24 |  0.47 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

It looks like he can hit the zone and get whiffs and out-of-zone-swings at roughly the same rate with his cutter that he did with his four-seam fastball, but it gets about half again as many ground balls. That is an exchange anyone would be happy to make.

Bannister also mentioned his new power change that is a little faster has less rise, or vertical movement.

It is working, the GB rate on his change has risen from just under 50% last year to 69% this year.

Overall Bannister’s transition has been great. He is striking out and walking about the same number of hitters, but instead of being a 40% GB pitcher he is a 48% GB pitcher. That is a huge difference, which should result in many fewer HRs and probably make him a league average pitcher.

I think this is really cool. Bannister looked at his stats, understood something had to change, went about changing it and so far it looks like it has worked. I am very happy for him.

According to a report on Yahoo, the Boston Red Sox organization has offered the Toronto Blue Jays a very competitive package for ace starter Roy Halladay. According to the site, Boston offered young starters Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, as well as 19-year-old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

Frankly, I like that much better than the rumored offer from the Philadelphia Phillies that included young hurler J.A. Happ, starter Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and outfielder Michael Taylor. Frankly, the only player in that deal that does anything for me is Taylor. You have to wonder how the Phillies organization can justify holding back its best prospects for one of the Top 5 pitchers in all of baseball and perhaps the most consistent in the past five years?

If I were the Jays, I would not do a deal with Philly without double-A pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and high-A outfielder Dominic Brown. The Phillies’ deal is almost insulting: a MLB pitcher currently playing over his ceiling, a pitching prospect who has regressed in the past two seasons, a shortstop who is an average hitter at best and may need to move to second base, as well as Taylor.

However, even a deal including Drabek and Brown would not appeal to me as much as Boston’s rumored offer of two MLB-ready, young pitchers and a talented (but inexperienced) young outfielder. If the Sox tossed in MLB infielder Jed Lowrie, outfielder Josh Reddick or right-hander Junichi Tazawa, I would probably scream, “Sold!” The organization refuses to trade SS/RHP prospect Casey Kelly and MLB reliever Daniel Bard, and I can respect that; the other players that Boston is offering are much better than those being suggested by Philly.

Forget about dealing within the division. Toronto needs to get the best deal possible for Halladay, and that could very well come from Boston.

Yesterday, I took a look at the two Mark DeRosa trades that Cleveland was involved in, both of which occurred within the last year. As a result, it got me thinking about the two Matt Holliday trades that also both occurred in roughly the same time period (Both DeRosa and Holliday oddly ended up with St. Louis). I was curious to see if Oakland came out on the plus side of both Holliday deals or not.

Dave Cameron and Erik Manning have both done a nice job of dissecting the Holliday trade to St. Louis, so I am not going to dwell too deeply on the trade itself. For those of you who don’t know by now, though, the Oakland Athletics received 3B/1B Brett Wallace, OF Shane Peterson, and RHP Clayton Mortensen. Wallace was St. Louis’ first-round draft pick in 2008 (13th overall), while Peterson (59th in ’08) and Mortensen (36th in ’07) were also highly regarded in college. All three players have seen their values increase since signing their initial pro contracts with the Cardinals organization.

Back on Nov. 10, 2008, Oakland general manager Billy Beane shocked baseball by acquiring Holliday from Colorado. The move was especially curious because Oakland was expected to be in rebuilding mode in 2009 and money is always an issue with the organization (The outfielder had a $13.5 million contract for 2009). But Beane obviously saw a chance to buy low (in his eyes) on a talented outfielder who could help the club contend sooner than expected in a weak American League West division. At worst, the A’s would end up with two high draft picks as compensation when Holliday headed for greener pastures as a free agent at the end of the ’09 season.

In exchange for Holliday, Oakland sent deposed closer Huston Street, left-handed starter Greg Smith, and the talented-but-frustrating young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to Colorado. Street has had a resurgence in the National League after seeing his numbers decline in his fourth season with Oakland. In 2008, he posted a 3.47 FIP. Street allowed just 58 hits in 70 innings of work, but his walk rate increased more than one walk per nine innings over his career average to 3.47 BB/9. His strikeout rate also dropped from 11.34 in 2007 to 8.87 K/9 in 2008 (although this was a number closer to his rates in 05-06).

In Colorado in ’09, batters are hitting just .195 against the 25-year-old right-hander, which is the lowest batting-average-against that Street has posted since his rookie year in ’05 (.194 average). His strikeout rate is up to 10.20 K/9, while his walk rate is back down to 2.13 BB/9. Street’s line-drive rate is also down about three percent. His fastball is almost 2 mph harder than it was in 2007-08.

Smith, meanwhile, has had a terrible season filled with inconsistencies and injuries. After making 32 starts and pitching 190.1 innings in his rookie season for Oakland in 2008, the left-hander has yet to appear in a big-league game this year. The former sixth-round draft pick (by Arizona) has made just five triple-A starts, while also appearing in both high-A and double-A while on rehab. In his five triple-A starts, Smith has allowed 20 hits and eight walks in 23 innings of work. He also has a 5.50 FIP and has allowed four homers. Even as his rather successful 2008 campaign came to a close, a lot of baseball watchers were crying, “Fluke!”

Still only 23, Gonzalez has spent most of the 2009 season in triple-A after spending the majority of ’08 in the Majors with Oakland, where he hit a disappointing .242/.273/.361 in 302 at-bats. This year, the left-handed hitter has batted .339/.418/.630 with 10 homers in 192 at-bats. Recently recalled to Colorado, he is hitting .225/.288/.373 with one homer and seven steals in 102 at-bats. Gonzalez’ poor approach at the plate (and lack of patience) has played a large part in his weak MLB numbers.

Colorado really did not get as much value for Holliday as it likely had hoped. The organization received a solid, young closer with a lot of experience, a future left-handed reliever, and a toolsy young outfielder that is looking more Delmon Young than Justin Upton. With that said, comparing the three players that Oakland received for Holliday and the three players that the organization gave up for Holliday, it looks pretty even at this point especially when you consider how Street’s stability in the bullpen has helped Colorado remain in the playoff hunt.

Wallace, though, has the potential to significantly overshadow the loss of Street if he can live up to his potential, but that could take a few years. Even so, you have to figure that a lot of organizations would trade Street for Wallace, straight up. Trading Smith and Gonzalez for Peterson and Mortensen is a bit of a toss up, and really depends on how much you believe in Gonzalez. If he reaches his potential, he could be an impact player. Both Peterson and Mortensen look like complementary parts, but they should both end up being more valuable than Smith.

In the end, it’s hard to say if Oakland came out on the winning end of the two Holliday deals or not. In the long run, though, my gut says that they did.

Bronson Arroyo’s name is suddenly popping up in trade rumors. One source reported a deal with the Yankees was imminent, but it turns out that was nothing more than a rumor. Nothing is going down, at least not yet, but apparently Arroyo is on the Yankees’ list of potential moves.

Wait a sec…a team is actually interested in Bronson Arroyo? Really? The Bronson Arroyo of the 5.49 FIP? Arroyo hasn’t been very good since 2006, which also happened to be the season he was sent through the meat grinder. For some reason he was allowed to pitch 240 innings for the non-contending Reds that year, and former GM Wayne Krivsky signed him to a 2-year $25 million extension. He has since been your run of the mill league average innings-eater, but has really hit the wall this season. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he’s allowing 1.6 homers per nine. Moving from Cincy to the new Yankee Stadium would likely only exacerbate the case of acute gopheritis. The Yankees are pretty much lock for the playoffs as things stand, there’s no point in them adding Arroyo, even if he modestly rebounds as ZiPS projects him to. (4.66 FIP over the rest of the season.)

Arroyo is probably a 1.5 WAR pitcher next year but is going to get paid like a 2.5 WAR pitcher. He’s due $4 million the rest of the season, $11 million the next season and has a $11 option the following season, with a $2 million buyout. It’s hard to fathom that his option would get picked up. Unless the Reds are willing to eat the vast majority of his salary, any GM trading for Bronson Arroyo should be immediately fired for incompetence. It would be essentially be paying for the privilege of flushing $6 million down the toilet.

2008 looked like the beginning of the end for Derek Jeter. His OPS dipped below .800 for only the second time this decade, his ISO fell off, and his home run rate dropped. Maybe he was simply melancholy about the old Yankee Stadium closing, but Jeter didn’t look like a sure thing to produce like … well Derek Jeter. ZiPS projected a .354 wOBA, CHONE a .349 wOBA, and Marcel a .353 wOBA. As it turns out, that new park may be the best thing to happen to Jeter in a while.

Most players hit better at their home park, and Jeter is doing just that. Everyone has talked about how the new Yankees Stadium is a hitters’ park and the affect applies to Jeter too:

Home: .320/.401/.495 9 HR
Away: .322/.395/.415 2 HR

Jeter actually has a higher BABIP on the road, a higher walk rate, and a lower strikeout rate, yet his power is really shooting up in the new Yankee palace. Oddly, Jeter’s only other full-time right-handed batting teammate, Alex Rodriguez, isn’t seeing similar results, or at least he doesn’t on the surface. His BABIP is only .161, yet his line is .209/.358/.535. Only 6 of 19 home runs have come on the road, despite about split playing time.

As a team the Yankees are batting .273/.360/.487 at home and .278/.357/.452 on the road. So while a lot has been made of the park, the main difference does indeed appear to be home runs hit. 53 in 1,866 plate appearances on the road and 91 in 2,015 plate appearances at home. Or, in percentage form: 2.8% versus 4.5%. So the park seems to be making a difference in home run rates, although I’ll leave the park factors to the people smarter than myself.

Assuming Jeter doesn’t under perform his projections, he has the chance at a five win season. That seemed relatively unlikely entering the year.