Two closers came off the market last week, as the Angels added Fernando Rodney and the Nationals picked up Matt Capps. The Angels won’t look to use Rodney as a closer, but he will provide insurance to Brian Fuentes in the back end of their bullpen. Capps is the most likely candidate for the Nationals’ closer role, vacated by Mike MacDougal.

Looking at career performance, it is clear that Capps is the more talented pitcher of these two. Rodney’s career ERA of 4.32 and career FIP of 4.15 are both worse than the league average for relief pitchers. Capps struggled last year, but even in spite of a 5.80 ERA in only his 4th full season, he still has a 3.61 career ERA and a 3.84 career FIP, both better than average.

Add in the roles that both these pitchers will be filling for their respective teams come this summer, and it seems to be a no-brainer that Capps would receive both the longer and more lucrative contract. Logic, however, can escape when it comes to the hot stove of the Major League Baseball offseason, and this is no exception. Rodney’s contract will give a roughly 0.5 WAR player 11 million dollars over 2 years. Meanwhile, the Nationals will only pay Capps a 3.5 million dollar base salary next year.

The problem for Capps appears to be one of exposure. Hardly anybody noticed either his 2007 or 2008 season with Pittsburgh, in which he posted sub-3.30 FIPs and even better ERAs. He never did compile saves like Rodney’s 37 last year, but in his three years with closing experience he has picked up 67 saves. It seems like the combination of no big save years, playing in Pittsburgh, and the lack of closer “stuff” – a low-mid 90s fastball as opposed to the high 90s of players like Rodney – led to Capps slipping to the Nationals.

Of course, Capps is still an injury risk and he is coming off a very poor season, which he could possibly repeat, and he still appears to have been paid on the inflated closer pay scale. However, his contract is much more reasonable. The Angels are paying for roughly 2.5 wins and will likely get only one win out of Rodney, a known commodity based on his 330 innings of poor performance. Capps is a promising player who is a rebound candidate and has shown the ability to get batters out in the 9th inning for multiple years prior, and is also arbitration-eligible for 2011. The Angels messed up, and the Nationals added a solid piece to their bullpen.

Today’s three targets share two things in common: 1) each is a centerfielder, and 2) each stands shorter than 6′. They are Rajai Davis, Tony Gwynn (Jr.), and Brett Gardner.

Here’s a random thought about each.

Here’s a fun fact to show anyone that thinks Billy Beane holds the same thoughts as he did in Moneyball: Davis has attempted 84 steals in the last two seasons. In 2002, the A’s attempted 66… as a team.

The most annoying aspect about Gwynn is that the FanGraphs linker tool doesn’t know whether I mean him or his father. Argh.

Raise your hand if you had Gardner outlasting Melky Cabrera in the Bronx three years ago. Yep, this is why rosterbating years in advance often leads to blindness.

When the 2010 season opens, the Angels bullpen will look almost nothing like its 2009 version. The addition of Fernando Rodney and subtraction of Jose Arredondo guaranteed it. Darren Oliver and Kelvim Escobar departing just changes the extent. Both of the deals came over the past week; let’s focus on Oliver first.

For years Oliver has been entrapped in a bubble. Oliver annually gaining Type-A status and declining arbitration meant that a new suitor for his services would have to give up at least a second round pick or a first if the team was choosing in the latter half of the round. Tony Reagins must adore Oliver, because he set him free this year and Oliver rewards the act by signing with perhaps the Angels’ fiercest division competitor, the Rangers. Despite his age (39), Oliver has appeared in at least 50 games each of the last three seasons and has xFIP of 3.92, 4.15, and 4.43 over that time. He misses some bats and can get batters of either hand out. The deal is worth $3.5M and there’s a strong chance he earns it.

Escobar’s deal with the Mets is worth a base salary of $1.25M, and he’ll make roughly $1.5M if he starts the season on the 25 man roster. There’s an additional $2M in incentives based on appearances and a million more based on finishes which seems unlikely, barring injury to Francisco Rodriguez. Over the last two seasons, Escobar has appeared in exactly one Major League game, which raises some questions as to why any team would want him. Well, it’s simple: he’s a pretty good pitcher when healthy. His xFIP since 2002 is a tick over 4.00 despite spending his entire time in the American League and appearing mostly as a starter. The incentives are a win/win for New York. Either Escobar stays healthy and productive, hence appearing in 35+ games, or he bombs and Jerry Manuel has incentive to not use him. If the latter happens, pray for Pedro Feliciano’s well-being.

Holiday greetings to you and yours! If you wish to spend a little time helping us out with projections, take a look at these three pitchers who just inked new deals: Kelvim Escobar, Fernando Rodney, and Justin Duchscherer

Kelvim Escobar is an injury-prone but very talented case. The Mets, who added him on a major league contract, hope he can bolster their bullpen after the departure of J.J. Putz.

Fernando Rodney will take a similar spot in the Angels bullpen, behind Brian Fuentes. Fuentes struggled at times last year, and the Angels hope Rodney can provide insurance.

Justin Duchscherer struggled with injuries the last 2 years, but before he was lost he put up great numbers in his first stint as a starter. It appears that he will return to Oakland’s starting rotation.

… the most outstanding players on the ballot are (with BaseballProjection.com WAR in parens):
16-20. Burks (48), Da Parker (38), Lankford (38), Le Smith (30), Galarraga (27)
13-15. Mattingly (40), Ja Morris (39), Baines (37)
12. Ventura (55)
11. Appier (50)
10. Da Murphy (44)
9. McGriff (51)
8. Dawson (57)
7. Trammell (67)
6. McGwire (63)
5. Edgar (67)
4. Larkin (69)
3. Raines (65)
2. Alomar (64)
1. Blyleven (90)

Interestingly, I would bet that a small minority were aware of the BProj numbers, and yet, those numbers reflect the perceptions of the fans pretty well. The eight most outstanding players according to the fans is identical to the eight players with the most WAR.

Thanks to all for participating!

It’s the final two: this means you are choosing the MORE outstanding player. MORE. Got that? MORE.

Balloting now closed.

Who was the MORE outstanding player?

Alomar, Roberto   44.8%
Blyleven, Bert    55.2%

Total votes: 563

Knocked out:
Ventura
Appier
Da Murphy
McGriff
Dawson
Trammell
McGwire
Edgar
Larkin
Raines

Instead of going team by team this off season, I will review the divisions as a group. And whereas last year, I used a version of BaseRuns, with some modifications for strength of schedule and the like thrown in, to determine the ranking of teams’ true talent levels, this year I will use WAR as provided here on FanGraphs.

Part Six: The AL East

Last year the AL East reigned king over everything. The Red Sox were kings of baseball, the best team according to BaseRuns. The Rays, no slouches themselves and eventual AL Pennant winners, were 2nd, at 2nd. The Blue Jays followed in the 4th overall spot just ahead of the Yankees in 5th. The poor Orioles were left out of the love fest however, finishing 23rd overall.

In 2009, little changed. The Yankees climbed up from fifth to take the top spot both in the division and in baseball overall. A fitting rank for the team that took home the World Series crown. The Rays once again were bridesmaids in 2nd, and this time didn’t see a pennant flag out of the deal. The Red Sox completed the AL East trifecta with a 3rd overall ranking.

The Blue Jays were unable to hang so tight with the big boys this season and fell down a few spots to 10th while the Orioles remained the Orioles, slipping from 23rd to 25th.

The overall rating for the Yankees is likely to change significantly a few years from now after we have enough data to build out a better park effect for New Yankee Stadium. For now though we have to go with what we have, and that leaves the 2009 Yankees as a supremely powerful group of hitters. Other than that, not much changed in the AL East last year and given the strengths of Boston, New York and Tampa, not much should change in 2010 either except a further decline for Toronto now that Roy Halladay is gone.

Here’s a summary of the ranks for the AL East teams, with 2008 first.
BOS: 1, 3
TAM: 2, 2
TOR: 4, 10
NYY: 5, 1
BAL: 23, 25

With the recent trade between the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves, the former organization lost two prospects off of its 40-man roster, which posted to Fangraphs on the same day that the trade was announced. Both left-hander Michael Dunn and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino are now property of the Braves organization. As such, there are now two openings on the club’s Top 10 prospect list. And the new members are (drum roll)…

9. D.J. Mitchell, RHP, High-A
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 10th round – Clemson University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Mitchell just missed the original Top 10 and the more I look at his numbers, the more I think he should have been there in the first place. The right-hander had a nice ’09 season and he allowed just 124 hits in 140.1 innings, while doing a solid job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed. A heavy ball allowed him to post an impressive 62% ground-ball rate. He had some splits issues with a .287 average against left-handed hitters, compared to .203 versus righties. Six of Mitchell’s 25 appearances came in low-A ball, while the final 19 came in high-A ball. At the senior level, the 22 year old showed respectable control with a walk rate of 3.31 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was OK, although nothing special, at 7.23 K/9. All in all, a solid showing for his first pro season.

10. Jeremy Bleich, LHP, High-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 supplemental first round
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

It was a tale of two seasons for Bleich in ’09. He began the year in high-A and posted some solid numbers, although he did allow his fair share of hits with 79 in as many innings and his strikeout rate was modest at 6.35 K/9. His walk rate was good, though, at 2.50 BB/9 and his FIP was just 3.28 (3.40 ERA). With the move to double-A, Bleich’s game was “Blech.” His FIP rose to 4.40 (6.65 ERA) and he allowed 84 hits in 65.0 innings. The control slipped and his rate rose to 4.71 BB/9, but oddly he missed more bats: 8.31 K/9. Left-handed batters teed off on Bleich more in double-A with the line-drive rate rising from 9.5% to 18.3%. Cleary he has some work to do in double-A, but Bleich still has potential as a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever on a good club like the Yankees.

Or is it Christmas Eve Day? Why does being a blogger gotta be so hard?

Whatever holiday you choose to celebrate (or not) this December, won’t you spread a bit of cheer by clicking here to enter your projections for Fernando Rodney, Troy Glaus, and John Buck?

Rodney was signed by the Angels in order to shore up their bullpen in the wake of Brian Fuentes‘ less-than-faith-inspiring 2009. How will Rodney perform, and in what role?

After losing almost all of his 2009 season to injury, Troy Glaus was signed by Atlanta, where he will reportedly play first base instead of third. Will his skills translate to plus defense at first, or will he struggle? Will Glaus still be able to hit with power after dealing with shoulder problems?

Seemingly moments after being non-tendered by the Royals in favor of the undead Jason Kendall, John Buck was signed by the Blue Jays to a one-year, two million dollar contract. He seems to be in line for the majority of the starts at catcher. Was the power he showed in 2007 and 2009 for real? Is my liking for Buck based in some latent ability of his, or is it completely irrational?

Instead of going team by team this off season, I will review the divisions as a group. And whereas last year, I used a version of BaseRuns, with some modifications for strength of schedule and the like thrown in, to determine the ranking of teams’ true talent levels, this year I will use WAR as provided here on FanGraphs.

Part Five: The AL West

The ranks last year were Anaheim (13th), Texas (17th), Oakland (20th) and Seattle (28th). Clearly not a strong division in 2008. A lot of changes took place over the winter between 2008 and this past season. The Mariners cleaned house in the front office, the Rangers embraced defense and the Angels shifted from a run prevention focus to a run scoring one. The Athletics gambled on retread veterans, a rotation from Double-A and an out of left field trade for Matt Holliday.

In the end, the division as a whole, one predicted to be evenly mediocre, turned in a vast improvement over the year prior. Every team improved their relative rank. The Angels once again led the way and, with 46 WAR, were fourth in baseball, a legitimately great team this season. The Rangers stayed in second place in the division and moved into the top ten in baseball with 41 WAR, ranked 9th.

The Mariners edged the Athletics for third place, with their 37 WAR moving them all the way to 14th. Oakland was not far behind, though, at 36 WAR and 15th in baseball. The entire division finished in the top half of teams in 2009.

As previously mentioned, each team focused on new areas in 2009 and, amazingly, all those focuses worked out. The Mariners’ re-tooling around defense gave them baseball’s best. The Rangers’ similar moves netted them the 6th best defense and promotion of youngsters into the bullpen contributed to one of the league’s better units.

It wasn’t as good as the Athletics’ bullpen, though, which blew away everyone in the league. And the Angels’ focus on offense resulted in the third-best hitting squad in baseball. In the end, the WAR standings matched the actual won-loss standings for 2009. Here’s a summary of the ranks for the AL West teams, with 2008 first:

ANA: 13, 4
TEX: 17, 9
OAK: 20, 15
SEA: 28, 14