2010 AL Playoff Rotations: New York Yankees

Going into the season, the Yankees looked like they might have the best starting rotation in the league. Things didn’t quite work out that way: Javier Vazquez had an unforeseeable collapse (I mean, “obviously can’t pitch in New York”), Andy Pettitte got hurt, A.J. Burnett Burnetted the season. The Yankees’ group of playoff starters still looks good against all of baseball once their updated CHONE projections are taken into account (using CHONE’s projected context-neutralized ERA and FIP derived from the projected line). However, the Yankees staff becomes less intimidating once compared with the Twins, Rangers, and Rays. This is not to say that the Yankees have the worst rotation in the AL playoffs, but it is not the clear advantage for them one might have expected in March.

1) CC Sabathia CHONE 3.28 nERA, 3.60 FIP
2010: 4.8 WAR, 3.55 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 3.34 tERA, 3.18 ERA

To be clear: I don’t think CC Sabathia should win the AL Cy Young. Nonetheless, 2010 isn’t a constant, either, and if in earlier posts I seemed to give Sabathia a bit of the short shrift, it may have been due to an overemphasis on the current season. Yes, the most recent season carries the most weight, but 2008 and 2009 also (should) figure into estimates of a player’s true talent. When everything is taken into account, while Sabathia has been outperformed in 2010 by fellow playoff pitchers Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano as well as others not in the playoffs, he’s probably still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his CHONE projection reflects that. Sabathia’s strikeout and walk rates have declined a fair bit from his monster 2008, and a (very) small bit from 2009, but are both still very good. He’s still a horse, averaging about seven innings a start. This season his groundball rate is up to around 50%, making him an even tougher opponent. A number of pitchers clearly had better seasons than Sabathia in 2010; but he still matches up with anyone in the playoffs.

2) Andy Pettitte CHONE 4.27 nERA, 4.23 FIP
2010: 1.9 WAR, 3.96 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 4.04 tERA, 3.17 ERA

Pettitte’s WAR is relatively low because injuries limited him to 125 innings over 20 starts so far this season. His ERA is excellent, but Pettitte doesn’t have a recent track record of being this much better than his FIP and xFIP, and his tERA is in line with FIP/xFIP as well. Pettitte isn’t a groundball machine any more. His strikeout rate isn’t average, but it isn’t terrible, and he avoids walks. Pettitte is far from dominating, but he is still a good pitcher when he’s healthy, and the Yankees really need to him to be healthy.

3) Phil Hughes CHONE 3.9 nERA, 4.10 FIP
2010: 2.0 WAR, 4.29 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, 4.02 tERA ,4.21 ERA

Hughes has had a bit of a rough time of it lately, and although he hasn’t become the ace some thought he would be, he’s had a solid if unspectacular season. In the transition into the rotation from the bullpen he has predictably lost some strikeouts, but his K rate is still good, and he has continued to do well in avoiding walks. Hughes’ main problem is that he’s been one of the more extreme flyball pitchers in baseball this season, which, combined with an average HR/FB rate, has led to a lot of homers. Hughes’ numbers up fairly well against #3 starters in the AL playoffs. However, although Yankee Stadium is relatively neutral with respect to run scoring generally, it seems to favor the home run, which could be a problem for Hughes in the playoffs given his skill set.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-Members
✓Full postseason coverage

4) A.J. Burnett CHONE 4.16 nERA, 4.46 FIP
2010: 1.0 WAR, 4.81 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 4.77 tERA, 5.33 ERA

Burnett didn’t quite (ahem) deliver what the Yankees were paying for in 2010. They didn’t expect a fourth starter, but that’s what he will be in the playoffs. In the first round, the Yankees are hoping Sabathia can go on short rest so Burnett won’t have to pitch at all. That’s a good idea. Putting the contract and expectations aside and comparing Burnett with the other fourth starters in the playoffs, he comes off okay. Although his strikeout rate is down, it’s still around average, and his walk rate is almost exactly the same as his career rate. When you compare his 2010 numbers to other #4 playoff starters like Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter, he’s the the better pitcher. Only three years and about $50 million dollars left on a guy I just tried to compliment with favorable comparisons to Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter.

I haven’t covered potential injury problems recurring with, e.g., Andy Pettitte. It is clear that the Yankees would not be too thrilled at the prospect of having to start Javier Vazquez (whose stunning 2010 collapse deserves a detailed analysis of its own) or Ivan Nova in a playoff game. Almost as frightening (or more) for Yankees fans would be that such a situation would force Burnett to start in the ALDS rather than potentially being skipped. Pettitte and Hughes compare well to other #2 and #3 starters in the AL playoffs, although I think the Rangers have an edge against them with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. The Yankees obviously are counting on Sabathia quite heavily to match up with other teams’ aces, pitch deep into games, and possibly pitch on short rest to minimize the amount of Burnett. This last point is especially important if the Yankees’ opponent decides to pitch their ace on short rest as well. It will be fascinating to watch it all shake out, and some surprises inevitably are going to make me look foolish.





Matt Klaassen reads and writes obituaries in the Greater Toronto Area. If you can't get enough of him, follow him on Twitter.

41 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Jonathan
16 years ago

“”Going into the season, the Yankees looked like they might have the best starting rotation in the league…Javier Vasquez had an unforeseeable collapse””

According to who exactly? A lot of people saw Vasquez’s collapse coming a mile away and I don’t recall many people outside of Yankee die hards saying they’d have a better rotation than the White Sox, Red Sox or Mariners.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  Jonathan

There were some people who thought the Yanks might have the best rotation in baseball. (Nobody said the Mariners would have the best rotation in baseball. I’m sorry, but nobody saw Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, and Ryan Rowland-Smith and thought they were the new 1990’s Atlanta Braves.)

And actually, many NY fans were mistrustful of Javier Vazquez from the very beginning after watching him melt-down in 2004.

Jim
16 years ago
Reply to  waynetolleson

People saw the Mariners rotation of Felix, Cliff Lee, Bedard, RRS, and Vargas as being a good rotation.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  waynetolleson

“People saw the Mariners rotation of Felix, Cliff Lee, Bedard, RRS, and Vargas as being a good rotation.”

I live in Seattle. I don’t know of a single person who seriously counted upon Erik freakin’ Bedard for anything.

Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, I’ll grant you. They were as a good a 1-2 punch as any in recent baseball history. Vargas was a really nice surprise, and so was Doug Fister before he went on the DL.

RRS was a disappointment, but not a completely surprising one. He always seemed to be doing it with smoke & mirrors every time I watched him pitch.

The funny thing about baseball is that the Mariners were a 100-loss team in 2010, and had they held-on to Lee, no team would have wanted to face the Mariners in the playoffs.

Baseball is a funny game.

delv
16 years ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Who foresaw Va(z)quez’ collapse? After his Cy-Young-calibre season last year? Please cite one article. People expect a low 4 ERA from Javy in 2010, given some regression and a shift to the AL East, but not a 4-5 mph drop in fastball velocity.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  delv

I wouldn’t say that I would have foreseen this collapse. However, I did see Vazquez collapse in 2004. The guy just has never responded to pressure, and NYC is constant pressure from Opening Day. I didn’t expect this steep a collapse, but having seen it once before, I can’t say I’m entirely surprised, either.

MikeS
16 years ago

I thought the detailed analysis of the Javier Vazquez collapse was that he can’t pitch in New York because there is too much pressure.

Surely there can’t be any more to ti than that?

JimNYC
16 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

People who casually dismiss the “he can’t play in New York” thing obviously haven’t ever actually lived in New York. It stretches well beyond baseball. I’m not a baseball player, but I still get strange comments from business people outside of NYC when I tell them I need them to be on a 5:30 a.m. conference call on a Sunday, or expect everyone in their office to still be ther at 7:00 p.m. every night during the week. There’s a stress level that comes from living in NY that a lot of people just can not handle, and I see it myself every single day in non-baseball players.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  JimNYC

You make a great point, . EVERYTHING is, in fact, more difficult in NY. It’s harder to park your car. It’s harder to pay your bills. Seemingly everyone is stressed-out, pushy, and aggressive 100% of the time. When you walk, there are people pushing and shoving because you’re not walking fast enough. If you don’t parallel park enough, there are eighteen idiots leaning on their car horn in a matter of seconds.

It really does take a certain personality, mentality, to handle all that. Think about the job of pitching. Yes, it requires you have a tremendous throwing arm, and the ability to control a baseball with good movement on it. However, you have to be very loose, relaxed, and focused in order to pitch effectively.

NYC makes it very difficult to focus and relax. You have a couple bad games, and you’re on the cover of five newspapers, all saying you stink. You’re being talked-about on local TV. You’re being talked-about on two Sports Talk Radio stations. On top of all of that, you’re pitching in the best division in baseball, with a NY-Boston rivalry that’s so intense that games in April are treated as though they’re playoff games.

Not every player is wired to handle all of that. Javier Vazquez certainly looks to be one of them.

Raf
16 years ago
Reply to  JimNYC

I live here, and I casually dismiss it. Most of the players referenced that “can’t play in NY” often have had a track record of mediocrity before they played in NY.

If a player has game, he can play in NY, Seattle, SD, wherever.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  JimNYC

“I live here, and I casually dismiss it. Most of the players referenced that ‘can’t play in NY’ often have had a track record of mediocrity before they played in NY.”

Ed Whitson had a good track record. He couldn’t hack it in NY.

Kenny Rogers had a good track record. He couldn’t hack it in NY.

Javier Vazquez had a good track record. He couldn’t hack it in NY.

Tony Fernandez had a good track record. He couldn’t hack it in NY.

Roger Clemens was never the same pitcher for the Yankees that he was for the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Astros.

A-Rod and Randy Johnson both struggled in NY.

The fact of the matter is that NY is a different animal, and not everyone can handle it.

Raf
16 years ago
Reply to  JimNYC

Ed Whitson was a mediocrity that lucked into a career year before he came to NY. He was mediocre after he left

Kenny Rogers had one good year, one bad year while in NY. The second year, he was coming off surgery.

Vazquez has had bad seasons in other uniforms as well. Was it because he couldn’t handle the bright lights of Montreal or Chicago?

Tony Fernandez was often injured his time in NY (rib cage, kidney stones),

Clemens’ K/9, H/9, BB/9 in NY were simillar to what he put up in Boston and Houston.

Rodriguez may have “struggled” in NY, but he also won 2 MVPs and has been one of the top NYY offensive performers. Johnson had one good year, one bad year in NY.

Have you even bothered to look at the numbers of the players you listed?

Raf
16 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

waynetolleson, that last line was a little bit more snarky than I intended, for that I apologize.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  Raf

Ed Whitson nearly won an ERA title after leaving NY. He was 57-50 after leaving NY, went a combined 29-22 with a 2.63 ERA over 1989-1990. As a Yankee, Whitson was actually 15-10, but with a 5.38 ERA and 255 hits allowed in 195 IP.

Kenny Rogers had zero good years in NY. He went 12-8 with a 4.68 ERA in 1996. He went 6-7 with a 5.65 ERA in 1997. He went 17-7 with a 3.38 ERA the year before he came to NY. He went 16-8 with a 3.17 ERA the year after he left the Yankees. Rogers was 5-1 pitching for the Mets briefly in ’99, but with a 4.03 ERA, and he was dreadful in the playoffs for both NY teams.

Tony Fernandez batted .225 with a .618 OPS for the ’93 NY Mets. He was traded to the Blue Jays, where he batted .306 with an .803 OPS the rest of the season. He batted .245 with a .668 OPS for the ’95 Yankees. After missing a season with injury, Fernandez batted .286 with a .746 OPS for the Indians. He batted .321 with an .846 OPS the following season for the Blue Jays.

Clemens was ridiculously dominant for the Blue Jays in 1997-’98. Clemens never came close to that level of dominance as a Yankee. His first year in NY, Clemens was 14-10 with a 4.60 ERA. The previous season, Clemens was 20-6 with a 2.65 ERA. The year before that, he was 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA. Clemens did have that one year in NY where he went 20-3 and won a CYA, but he had a 3.51 ERA. He wasn’t even the best pitcher on the Yankees that season, (or any season he pitched for the Yankees, really).

Randy Johnson had one OK year in NY, but 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA is not what you think of as a good Randy Johnson year. (Of course, Johnson is a guy where his age is a legitimate factor in his decline. He was already 41-years-old with knee and back problems before coming to NY.)

A-Rod definitely struggled with NY. Pretty much the worst seasons of his career have come as a Yankee. Moreover, you could definitely perceive that the pressure of the NY environment got to A-Rod. A-Rod and Clemens both said it took three or four years before they grew used to playing in the fishbowl environment of NYC.

Raf
16 years ago
Reply to  Raf

Ed Whitson was 52-56 before he came to NY, splitting his time between starting and relieving with the Pads, Giants, Pirates and Indians. His 1985 season looks an awful lot like his 1983 season.

Kenny Rogers became a full time starter in 1993, his 1996 season is more in line with the rest of his career (most of which was spent with the Rangers), than his 1995 season.

Tony Fernandez battled kidney stones while with the Mets and a rib cage injury with the Yanks

1995
RHP: .270, .746 OPS
LHP: .195, .507 OPS

Career
RHP: .289, .752 OPS
LHP: .286, .734 OPS

He certainly is an interesting case, part of me wonders what would’ve happened if the Mets were a better team that year.

Clemens was dominant as a Jay, but his time in NY was similar to his last few years as a Red Sox. The numbers he posted in Toronto were similar to the numbers he posted in the early 90’s as a Red Sox. Weird to see that as much as was made about his physical condition, he never pitched more than 1 CG a season from 1999 to the end of his career in 2007. Agreed that Mussina outperformed him on several occasions (most notably 2001 when Clemens won the CYA)

It may have taken Rodriguez a couple of years, but he had a solid season in 2004, and hit in the playoffs that season. As mentioned, he won the MVP in 2005 and 2007, and had a pretty good season in 2006. Clemens won the CYA his second year in NY and held his own while playing in NY.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  Raf

“Ed Whitson was 52-56 before he came to NY, splitting his time between starting and relieving with the Pads, Giants, Pirates and Indians.”

Those teams didn’t have Rickey Henderson leading-off, and Mattingly and Winfield in the middle of the line-up. The ’85-’86 Yankees were terrific offensive teams for their era. Whitson couldn’t get anyone out in NY. A couple years later, he’s competing for ERA crowns.

“Kenny Rogers became a full time starter in 1993, his 1996 season is more in line with the rest of his career ”

His 1996 year sucked, and his 1997 season sucked even worse. Rogers was your consummate “can’t play in NY” guy. Look at the situation a couple years ago when he attacked the cameraman. This guy couldn’t handle the nuisance of the press in Arlington, TX. He most certainly couldn’t deal with it in NYC. That’s why he was 18-15 with a 5.11 ERA as a Yankee, while he averaged about 15-9 with 3.75 ERA from 1993-2006, subtracting his two years in the Bronx.

When it comes to Clemens and A-Rod, it’s hard to pin them down because we don’t know for sure which years they were using steroids. For example, I find it hard to believe that A-Rod wasn’t on steroids in 2007. Either way, if you watched Clemens and A-Rod, as great as they were, you could tell they just weren’t comfortable in NY the first few years they were there.

Raf
16 years ago
Reply to  Raf

Ed Whitson had 15 seasons in the bigs, only 2 of them where he was competing for an ERA crown. He didn’t have Henderson, Mattingly and Winfield in the other 13 years he pitched in the bigs and didn’t do all that well either.

Kenny Rogers had more years like 1996 (4+ ERA) than he did like 1995 or even 1997.

tom
16 years ago

Nice writeup.

If the Yankees start on the road (in Minnesota), do they start Hughes in game 2 to lessen the impact of FB/HRs? It also gives Pettitte 2 extra days (not sure if this is good or bad) and you have a lefty in NY for game 3.

The #2 starter is only pitching twice in the ALDS if the Yanks go Sabathia on short rest AND the series goes 5 games (so I don’t see any concern over Hughes innings). If they go 4 starters or the series doesn’t go 5 games it really doesn’t matter who pitches game 2 vs 3 in terms of # of starts.

Joe D.
16 years ago

If the Yanks start on the road, I think you’ll definitely see them open with CC and Andy. The idea of Hughes pitching on the road probably isn’t much different than home, but I don’t think they want to rely on that if they can avoid it.

Bryz
16 years ago
Reply to  Joe D.

I agree, starting CC and Pettitte will allow the Yankees to neutralize Jason Kubel and Jim Thome, of which Kubel certainly deserves to be benched but won’t because he’s seen as one of the Twins’ better hitters by the coaching staff.

phoenix
16 years ago

starting hughes in target field might be smarter because it is a pitchers park with far walls so he might get lucky that a ball flies out on the track that would have been a no doubter in NY. of course with only one start, it might be limited to just one or two of those or might not make any difference. still though, pettitte gets less fly balls than hughes and is a lefty so he can neutralize the lefty power bats looking for that short right porch.

Will Cohen
16 years ago

Nick Blackburn will be lucky to pitch out of the pen for the Twins. He is more like their number 6 starter after Liriano, Pavano, Duensing, Baker and Slowey.

waynetolleson
16 years ago

Aww, you stats boys are SOOO CUTE, all marching like sheep and repeating each other’s jokes. There’s obviously NO SUCH THING as pressure in sports.

And every city is EXACTLY THE SAME! There’s NO DIFFERENCE between pitching in Atlanta, GA, Phoenix, AZ, or The Bronx, NY. None whatsoever!

When is everyone going to learn that if it can’t be measured in FIP, xFIP, and GB/FB, it bears no meaning on the game of baseball?

None of this is to discount the value of statistical analysis. However, those who discount factors such as pressure and a player’s mental game are every bit as foolish, dogmatic, and misguided as those who cling to more “old school” analysis of baseball.

Of course, I’m banging my head against a wall trying to make this point to this crowd. Resume your prattle, geniuses.

Cheese Whiz
16 years ago
Reply to  waynetolleson

Straw man alert! Thanks for assuming how we all feel around here.

There were people here at Fangraphs (including a lot of Yankee fans no doubt) who questioned Vazquez’ return when the deal went down. Yes, he had just come off an “ace” like performance in ’09 with the Braves, but it seemed to be the first year in his career that his results had matched his talent/peripherals. It was either a breakout season, or another tease. With Vazquez’ history in New York, it was enough to raise eyebrows with everyone.

None of this however proves one way or another if there is such a thing as a “New York Effect”. Yeah, maybe he just can’t handle the bright lights in the Big Apple. Or maybe it’s just another frustrating year, in a somewhat frustrating career.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  Cheese Whiz

“None of this however proves one way or another if there is such a thing as a ‘New York Effect’.”

Nope. All you need is a pair of eyeballs for that one.

I want to make clear that nothing I’m writing is to denigrate the importance of statistical analysis. My thing is that I’m for SMART OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS, as well. It is way beyond annoying how so many SABR people think that the only thing that matters in scientific study is numbers.

For example, if you were studying lions or killer whales, you would need to do a lot of observation of how these animals behave in the wild. You could analyze their blood samples and their skeletal structures, but that wouldn’t paint a complete picture. In order to get the most complete analysis possible, you’d have to watch and observe the animals.

For people to approach baseball as though human observation is completely irrelevant is JUST PLAIN STUPID. When it comes to certain players, yes, you can see that they’re emotionally burned-out, or not mentally prepared for the situation at hand. To pretend these factors don’t exist is SHEER LUNACY.

I’m sick and tired of people adopting this holier-than-thou attitude just because they’ve developed the ability to look at a spreadsheet. Just because some writers at Fangraphs (or similar sites) have don’t have any feel for the game, or any ability to gauge whether a player is mentally and emotionally in control of himself, doesn’t mean that nobody else has those abilities.

When it comes to Javier Vazquez, yes, it has been a frustrating career. I’ve followed his entire career. From what I’ve seen, when teams need to score runs off him, Vazquez typically cracks. That’s why despite great peripheral stats, Vazquez is a career .500 pitcher.

Raf
16 years ago
Reply to  Cheese Whiz

And that career has spanned across markets big and small.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  Cheese Whiz

Vazquez has had some bad season in smaller markets. However, his worst seasons by far have come as a NY Yankee. You see the deer-in-headlights expression on his face and you know that there are gonna be some curveballs and change-ups hung in the middle of the plate.

I really wanted Vazquez to succeed. I really used to like him as a pitcher. The guy is completely burned-out right now though.

jon
16 years ago

Can someone explain to me how liriano has pitched better then sabathia? I’m confused.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  jon

“Can someone explain to me how liriano has pitched better then sabathia?”

The argument would be that Liriano has a better strikeout rate, a better FIP, and a better xFIB than CC Sabathia. Of course, Sabathia nearly fifty more innings, pitches in a tougher division, pitches in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and pitches in a much more pressure-packed environment.

I would say Sabathia has had the better season, based mainly on the innings totals. Sabathia has pitched forty-seven more innings than Liriano, which is five complete games worth of baseball. That counts for a lot in my book.

JimNYC
16 years ago
Reply to  jon

The only way that comment that “a number of pitchers have clearly had better seasons than Sabathia” comment makes sense is if that number is one, and refers to Felix Hernandez. Otherwise it’s a bit silly.

Jonathan
16 years ago
Reply to  JimNYC

And how would you argue that Sabathia has had a better season than Jon Lester? Or Cliff Lee? Or perhaps even David Price?

A number of pitchers have had a better season than Sabathia, whether you go by simple or complex metrics.

Sox2727
16 years ago

This season was once again proof that you can’t count on “Little Game Javy” as we refer to him in Chicago. I don’t know that it has to do with New York so much as he just doesn’t have the mindset to handle big games. He was atrocious in the second half for the Sox in ’06 when they needed him and he was so bad down the stretch in ’08 that Ozzie called him out prior to his Game 1 start in Tampa. He is just simply a guy who can’t handle pitching in pressure situations. He is better suited for environments where there are no pressure (i.e. Montreal, Arizona, Atlanta). I know people will say Atlanta had a shot at the playoffs last year and he had a great year, but I think the larger point is he has proven on multiple occassions that when the games mean more, Javy will go and hide.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  Sox2727

And that’s the issue of why a player like Vazquez can’t hack it in NY. EVERY START is a big start in NY. You’re making $12 million in a city where everyone is struggling to keep their heads above water, and people expect results. When you don’t perform, even in April, you’re gonna hear about it. Not every player can handle that.

fredsbank
16 years ago

i love how after the ubaldo second-half hm… lack of performance, shall we say, the collective ire of the fangraphs community has turned toward sabathia.

my favorite thing about this site, however, remains the attitude; so holier-than-thou, so supremely confident they cannot be wrong, that there is no alternative. its just like in the “why we use FIP for WAR” article, where they never present a good argument for FIP vs tRA or whatever smith uses at B-R and just say “FIP is better” over and over and over

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  fredsbank

What’s also great is the short memory of the self-appointed geniuses at sites like these. For example, Dave Cameron once wrote of Robinson Cano, “I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.

I’ve seen Cano play a lot, and I’m not even sure he’d be a productive Triple-A player. Let’s start with his defense; it’s brutal. He has terrible footwork and simply lacks any kind of instincts around the bag. There’s no way you want him playing up the middle. He might have the raw speed to not be awful in left field, but that’s about as kind as I can be regarding his glovework. Offensively, he’s a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake. Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front. He’s mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall. To add insult to injury, he’s also a terrible baserunner.

In his prime, I think he could hit .280/.320/.400 while playing awful defense. Yipee.”

Today, Cano is batting .300 with 30 HR, 100 RBI production, and has turned into a decent defensive 2B. He is touted for his abilities to turn a DP. But do you ever hear pompous blowhards like Cameron come-out and admit that they were just plain wrong about something? Nope. They’re back at it day after day with their condescending drivel.

Rob in CT
16 years ago
Reply to  waynetolleson

Actually, I’m reasonably certain that Cameron did a mea culpa on Cano.

waynetolleson
16 years ago
Reply to  waynetolleson

The point, though, is that the attitude and condescension on the part of people like Cameron hasn’t changed. They act as if they’re so much more knowledgeable than, so superior to, the average fan, who, collectively, are a bunch of uninformed dullards.

It goes without saying that anyone who isn’t 100% up-to-date on the latest “findings” in the SABR world falls into this category, and deserves disdain and ridicule.

I cite this Cameron gem because it goes to show just how shockingly arrogant and ridiculous SABR blowhards like Cameron can be. This guy really thought that sitting at a computer and going over some minor league statistics gave him a better perspective on a prospect’s abilities than professional coaches and scouts who watched him play day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.

I just wish that the SABR crowd could get the snark and the attitude under control. The “I’m Smarter than Everybody and Anyone Who Doesn’t Agree with Me is an Idiot” thing has gotten out of hand. It doesn’t make SABR people look smart. In fact, it does just the opposite.

Rob in CT
16 years ago

I read a study (can’t remember which site did it) that showed that the dropoff in Javy’s performance with runners on base was far more than the average pitcher. He sucks from the stretch (or, if you like, he sucks in pressure situations. Maybe one leads to the other, I dunno), even during good seasons. It’s just in his good years he lets up fewer baserunners to begin with. The exception to all of this was his 2009 – that was the outlier.

I think it makes him vunerable to a snowball effect. If he’s struggling, he gives up baserunners, which puts him in the stretch and things get (especially) ugly. Again, that’s true to an extent w/all pitchers, but it’s magnified with Javy.

Of course, none of the above explains a significant drop in FB velocity. Injury, mechanics, or age? If it’s mechanics, that could be mental.

tdotsports1
16 years ago

Not to pile on, but wasn’t there a fangraphs writer arguing the merits and value of the AJ Burnett contract? Yikes…

As a Jays fan, he was definitely solid for us but the writing was on the wall that he was doomed to fail in the big apple…

Bad investment…

Not that it will dent the Yanks, I don’t see any way they don’t dominate the Twinkies…

Wesley Petriccione
16 years ago

If you do not really feel like utilizing paid companies, there are a few options that might assist. You might look up the number in publicly obtainable whitepages or telephone books, or use an web search motor, this kind of as Google or Yahoo. However, if the number in query is cell telephone or unlisted, you search will most most likely provide no outcomes, simply because such info isn’t publicly obtainable. It will not hurt to try, although.

Katharine Kidwell
15 years ago

Awesome information once again. I am looking forward for more updates;)