Archive for March, 2010

Organizational Rankings: #27 – San Diego

It’s been a tough couple of years for the Padres. The divorce of their former owner led to an unexpected need to sell, and in the transition to a new ownership group, the front office was mostly rebooted. During this time, payroll was slashed, the team got bad, and the farm system continued to suffer from years of drafting kids with 86 MPH fastballs. They watched franchise icon Trevor Hoffman leave, then traded Jake Peavy to kick start a rebuild and get out from under his contract. Now, they face the prospect of trading Adrian Gonzalez, with the question being when he will be dealt, not if.

It’s not exactly the kind of situation you want to inherit, but new GM Jed Hoyer has the pedigree to offer hope for Padre fans that this will eventually get turned around. It’s just going to take a while. The 2010 version of the Padres don’t look like contenders, and unfortunately, the roster isn’t filled with much upside. There are some decent role players and guys with enough ability to not be terrible, but there’s just a staggering lack of star power once you get past Gonzalez. Besides the soon-to-be-traded first baseman, not a single player on the team put up a +3 win season in 2009.

It’s really tough to contend when your best players are just average or a bit above. Replenishing that kind of premium talent is one of the tougher tasks in baseball, and it generally doesn’t happen overnight. Hoyer’s going to have to hit a home run on the Gonzalez trade and make a few shrewd acquisitions, because otherwise, the Padres are going to get caught in a situation where the team is good enough to win 75 to 85 games but never really contend.

In many ways, you’d almost rather start with a worse roster like Kansas City has, because at least there are easy upgrades to make with the numerous holes on the team. The Padres were run well enough that they don’t have too many disaster positions, but it eliminates the ability to make cheap, easy upgrades by grabbing undervalued role players and nifty waiver claims. The Padres don’t need any more solid part-time guys. They need stars, and those take a while to develop.

By all accounts, Hoyer has the ability to turn the franchise around, but Padre fans can’t be looking for a quick fix, because there’s no shortcuts to fixing the problems with the current roster, and the farm system isn’t about to spit out a core that the team can build around. There’s a lot of work to be done. With Petco and the promise of potential higher payrolls when the team gets good again, along with a front office that gets it, there are some building blocks in place, but this is not going to be a quick turnaround. Patience will be the key for Padre fans.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – San Diego

The San Diego Padres organization is in a transitional period. With the spacious PETCO Park, the club is making the shift to a team that focuses on pitching and defense but the big-league roster currently features few, if any, impact MLB players outside of Adrian Gonzalez.

The club’s best young offensive player is Kyle Blanks but he’s not really well-suited to the park. At 6’8” and 285 lbs, the 23-year-old prospect’s game is power – not speed. He’s currently miscast as a left-fielder due to Gonzalez’ place at first base. Other young outfielders like Aaron Cunningham and Will Venable are probably fourth outfielders on playoff teams. Third baseman Chase Headley has been bounced around positions (left field, third base) despite having played just 255 big league games so sticking to one spot will be good for his development. He showed some promise last season but his offensive ability has been stunted by the power-dampening effects of the home ballpark.

Rule 5 steal Everth Cabrera had a nice rookie season but expectations for the shortstop were low and many talented rookies have struggled during their sophomore seasons. We don’t know what to expect from the 23-year-old infielder in the long-term. With that said, he’s the type of player (young, fast, promising on defense) that the club should focus on in trades, as well as the amateur draft.

On the mound, the organization has focused recently on filling holes with organizational soldiers, inexpensive free agents with low ceilings, and rejects from other organizations. The big ballpark means that the club can turn a fringe big leaguer into a league-average starter. The best pitcher currently on the staff, from a future talent standpoint, is Mat Latos, who has the makings of a No. 1 or 2 starter – even outside of San Diego. The club’s next best pitching prospect is Simon Castro, a 2006 international free agent signing.

The club did a nice job of focusing on toolsy and athletic players in the ’09 draft. It nabbed two prep outfielders with its first two picks in Donavan Tate and Everett Williams. On the downside, both players will require significant development time. The organization’s strength is definitely in its offensive depth – especially at third base. The club has Logan Forsythe, James Darnell, and Edinson Rincon currently in the pipeline, although the club is looking at shifting Rincon to the outfield (another area that’s getting crowded). Forsythe’s line-drive approach may make him the best-suited for a role in San Diego, although the other two could have higher ceilings, especially if they’re traded to other organizations (for high-ceiling pitching help).

The club’s history of drafting in the first round is not good… and I’m being very generous with that statement. The best pick over the past 10 years (outside of Tate, perhaps) is Khalil Greene. The club scored in the ’08 amateur draft with the likes of Jaff Decker, Forsythe and Darnell (as well as Blake Tekotte and Sawyer Carroll, who should be useful fourth or platoon outfielders). With eight picks before the third round of the ’07 draft, the club infused some depth in the system but it went with lower-ceiling college picks and that has not turned out well from a talent standpoint. Only one player out of the eight (pitcher Cory Luebke) is a Top-10 talent.

The club has made some noise on the international market by handing out some big bucks, but it’s still too early to know if the right decisions were made.

The trade market for Gonzalez heated up last season but the club may have whiffed on the opportunity. He has a very favorable contract but the first baseman’s value as a trade commodity diminishes with each season that falls off of his contract (which expires after a club option for 2011). Even in the National League West, this team is not going to compete over the next two seasons and Gonzalez is almost assuredly going to be too expensive for the organization to re-sign after 2011. Boston was said to be hot-and-heavy for the veteran first baseman and the Padres organization may have missed an opportunity to nab some talented, young players although none of us truly know what was offered (and rejected).

The Padres organization appears pointed in the right direction. It appears to have the right people for the job. Now it just needs to execute and have a little luck, too. New general manager Jed Hoyer has changed things up in both the scouting and development areas. Scouting director Bill Gayton was let go after nine seasons and has been replaced by Jaron Madison. Farm director Grady Fuson was let go in ’09 and Randy Smith is now the go-to guy. It will be important for this organization to ensure that everyone is on the same mission. With a modest budget, the club needs to make every opportunity count.


Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – San Diego

When a team’s payroll falls from $74 million to $36 million in just two years, a drop in talent level is inevitable. This is exactly what we’ve seen with the San Diego Padres since 2008, and as a result, the team on the field at Petco Park will be poor in 2010.

Everybody knows about Adrian Gonzalez, and there’s no doubt that he will be productive for whatever amount of time he plays for San Diego. After that, however, the drop off is steep. Kyle Blanks and Everth Cabrera are young players with some promise, putting up almost two wins above replacement put together. Chase Headley is moving back to third base, and has put together nearly 1000 plate appearances of above-average hitting. Chris Young looks like he can pitch when he’s healthy, and Heath Bell and Mike Adams look like an exceptional back end of a bullpen.

The rest of the roster is just plain unimpressive. None of the aforementioned position players appear ready to have a huge impact at the Major League level. Tony Gwynn Jr. has no power, and Scott Hairston may not even have a starting spot. The rest of the position players contains David Eckstein, Yorvit Torrealba, and Will Venable. There likely isn’t an average player in that group.

The outlook for the rotation is similarly poor. Jon Garland has an established track record of mediocrity. Kevin Correia looked solid last year, but is probably due for some regression. Clayton Richard could put up some numbers in PETCO, but at this point in his career he’s probably only an average SP. Chris Young has injury troubles and was completely ineffective last year, but has been excellent in past years. Then there’s a variety of options for the fifth starter, including Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, and Sean Gallagher. There’s no ace here, and even though there’s some young upside, there’s also the chance that Garland and Young give nothing of value this season.

The bullpen will have an excellent back end with Bell and Adams. Luke Gregerson and Joe Thatcher are also both projected to post sub-4.00 ERAs. Those four could make the last few innings an ordeal for teams facing a deficit against the Padres. The rest of the relievers aren’t terribly interesting, but those four give the Padres a decent bullpen.

Vegas is probably underselling this team by placing the over-under at 69 wins. Our FAN standings have them at 79 and CHONE has them at 77 or 78, depending on which method you use. Still, that’s only good for 4th or 5th place in the NL West. There’s limited upside in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future, and Gonzalez is the only position player that will be well above average. There’s no depth right now in the infield, and if Gonzalez misses any significant time, that 69 win mark could be a reality. This might be one of the best teams that can be put together for $36 million, but this is just not a roster that can compete in either 2010 or 2011.


Organizational Rankings: #28 – Washington

Okay, so they won’t be celebrating this ranking in the nation’s capital, but this actually does represent a pretty significant improvement from last year, when I considered ranking them behind a few colleges and the East Cobb youth development program out of Georgia. That they were able to climb out of the 30th spot is an accomplishment, considering the hole they were attempting to climb out of. There is still a really long way to go, but progress has been made.

Obviously, drafting and signing Strasburg helped. They now have a pair of franchise players, as he will team with Ryan Zimmerman to give the club two guys to market like crazy. But the improvements in 2009 didn’t end there. The Nyjer Morgan trade was terrific, giving the team a legitimate center fielder who can also hit a bit. They also added Josh Willingham without surrendering much in return, and while he’s getting a little long in the tooth for a rebuilding team, he should be a nice trade chip this summer.

But, that’s going to be the key. Washington did a decent job of adding low cost assets last year, but they have to recognize that they’re still completely rebuilding, and they have to be willing to flip those assets when they have the chance. Forget the extension of Adam Dunn – they should be trading him, not signing him long term. There just isn’t enough talent in the Nationals organization to contend any time soon. They need to be stockpiling assets that they control for multiple years at below market rates, and guys like Dunn and Willingham don’t fit the criteria. The signing of Ivan Rodriguez, Adam Kennedy, and Jason Marquis don’t indicate that it’s a priority for the Nationals either, and that’s too bad.

There are pieces in place that could be the foundation of a good Washington team. The park is nice, the ownership is willing to spend some money, there are some quality young players, and the new front office has done enough encouraging things to give fans some hope, but it’s going to take patience. They can’t veer from the rebuilding path. Rizzo and his staff have to commit themselves to the future, because the present isn’t going to be very pretty.

If they do, better days are ahead. If they get lured into an extension for Dunn and fail to capitalize on the tradeable assets they have, it could really set them back. This is a big year for the Washington front office. They’ve got some big decisions to get right.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Washington

It’s been a slow climb back to respectability for the former Montreal Expos franchise, now known as the Washington Nationals. Years of league control slashed the organization’s budget, which was certainly felt in both the player development and scouting/draft areas.

With a modest budget, the big-league club relies on a lot of young players. Outfielder Elijah Dukes has been around for a while but he’s still just 25 years old. The Rays organization gave up on him due to ongoing make-up/attitude issues and the Nationals organization made a smart decision to jump on him while his value was low. Shortstop Ian Desmond has been touted as the Next Great Thing for a few years now, but he’s finally ready to make good on the hype. Unfortunately, the club made a poor decision to give incumbent shortstop Cristian Guzman a contract extension, which has now become the elephant in the room. The best young fielder on the team, though, is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who is now in his fifth full season in the Majors. The 25-year-old infielder is the club’s best hitter and one of only two high first round picks that the club has made good on in the past 10 years.

The other good pick is Mr. Stephen Strasburg, although the 2009 first overall pick in the entire draft has yet to throw an regular season pro pitch (He did throw in the ’09 Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects). Although he may already be better than any of the other pitchers currently in the Nationals’ starting rotation, Strasburg is probably headed for the minors (double-A or triple-A) for the first month or so. The club has another talented, young pitcher in Jordan Zimmermann, but he was derailed by Tommy John surgery and will not be back at full strength until 2011. Southpaw John Lannan is entering his third full season in the Majors and is a sign that the club can find diamonds in the rough. The former 11th round pick from 2005 has been an innings-eater over the past two seasons and is still just 25.

There are a few more good, young players on the way in catcher Derek Norris, reliever Drew Storen, and shortstop Danny Espinosa but the depth in the system is still not great, especially on the mound. The club has not shown much willingness to spend on international players. The draft results have also been quite modest considering the club’s high ranks in the draft orders. Decisions to re-sign fringe veterans like Guzman and Ronnie Belliard – dime-a-dozen players in the free agent market – have robbed the rebuilding club of valuable supplemental draft picks.

Scouting director Dana Brown, who held the position for eight years, has moved on to a new role with the Toronto Blue Jays so the drafts will now be overseen by Kris Kline. Doug Harris is the club’s director of player development; that role has been a bit of a revolving door over the past five years so some stability might be good for the organization.

The club has shown an ability to acquire talented, young players, whose values have slipped (Dukes, Lastings Milledge, now in Pittsburgh), in trades but it has yet to truly master the amateur draft or player development. A lack of desire to play ball in the international market is also hurting an organization that was once well-known for its pursuits overseas (Vladimir Guerrero, Orlando Cabrera, to name just a few). More money needs to be spent on scouting, signing and developing in-house talent. Signing free agents like Adam Kennedy and trading for players like Nyjer Morgan serve a purposes – but only to act as placeholders for inexpensive, team-controlled prospects already developing in the pipeline. This organization is starting to figure it out, but it still has a long way to go.


Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Washington

Since the franchise waived au revoir to Canada and shed those Expos unis, the Washington Nationals have brought up the rear in the NL East four times in five seasons. In 2010, the Nationals figure to post another losing campaign, though not of the 100-plus loss variety seen in both 2008 and 2009. The FANS project the Nationals to tally 72 wins. CHONE has the club at 74 victories, while The Hardball Times and CAIRO forecast 78 and 73 wins, respectively.

While the world waits for Stephen Strasburg to begin throwing upper-90’s gas and knee-buckling breaking stuff in the majors, the Nationals aren’t without talent, particularly when it comes to position players.

Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is a defensive wizard who upped his offensive game last season. The 25 year-old might not post a 7+ WAR season again, but he’s one of the most valuable assets in the game as an all-around force under team control through 2013.

Center fielder Nyjer Morgan is “Death to Flying Things,” NL-style. He’s no great shakes with the bat, but he should add a win to two wins next year with his glove alone. Ian Desmond (projected to be an average starter by the FANS) could take over a middle infield position at some point, and vexing right fielder Elijah Dukes still retains an intriguing mix of patience, pop and athleticism. Both the FANS and CHONE project a two-plus win season in 2010, though Dukes would need to stay off the trainer’s table for that to happen. Jesus Flores has a quality bat for a catcher, but a serious shoulder injury wrecked his 2009 season, and he figures to start 2010 on the disabled list as well.

In addition to those core position players, Washington has left fielder Josh Willingham, an offensive metronome (wRC+ between 122-129 every season since 2006) who’s good for a 2-3 WAR season. First baseman Adam Dunn’s exploits in the batter’s box are matched only by his ineptitude in the field. The Nationals might be best off exploring the trade market for these two: the 31 year-old Willingham has two years of team control left, and the 30 year-old Dunn (owed $12 million this year) will be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season. Adding more young, cost-controlled talent to the roster would seem to trump keeping Willingham and Dunn in a quest to crack 75 wins. Cristian Guzman, a pending free agent owed $8 million, could also be on the block.

On the pitching side, Strasburg (a consensus top-two prospect) obviously steals the show. Washington was dealt a blow, however, when Jordan Zimmermann (3.39 xFIP in 2009) had to undergo Tommy John surgery in August. He’s unlikely to toss a major league pitch this year, but still holds considerable long-term potential.

John Lannan has confused many a stat-head: he has an ERA in the high three’s over the past couple of seasons, despite a FIP in the high fours. The lefty has decent control and gets groundballs, but don’t be surprised if he regresses in 2010. Free agent signee Jason Marquis discovered a sinker last year and had a career year. He’s worth $7.5 million per year in a vacuum, though one could argue that a rebuilding club could better allocate that kind of cash. Speaking of sinkerballers, Chien-Ming Wang will try to resume burning worms after he finishes up rehab for shoulder surgery. A shoulder injury has sapped Scott Olsen of the stuff that made him a top prospect with Florida. His ’09 season ended in July, as he went under the knife to repair a torn labrum. Former first-rounder Ross Detwiler will miss a good chunk of the season with a hip ailment that required surgery.

Candidates for the back of the rotation include Garrett Mock, J.D. Martin, Livan Hernandez, Collin Balester, Craig Stammen and Miguel Batista, none of whom project for more than 1.5 WAR in 2010.

The only bench name of note is Willie Harris, who has actually averaged nearly 2 WAR over the past three seasons. In the bullpen, the Nationals will hope that Matt Capps has a sound shoulder and elbow, and that Brian Bruney can throw strikes more than “monthly.” Tyler Clippard punched out nearly 10 batters per nine frames last year, though extreme fly ball tendencies, so-so control, a high strand rate and a low BABIP mean there was a big gap between his xFIP (4.35) and ERA (2.69). Even so, he’s the team’s top-rated ‘pen arm, according to CHONE.

Washington has a superstar in Zimmerman, and another possible one in Strasburg. The outfield looks like it should be above-average, too. However, the Nationals could struggle to keep runs off the board, and injuries to important youngsters Zimmermann, Flores and Detwiler are disappointing. It’s near impossible to envision a scenario in which the club climbs higher than third in the NL East. Washington could nudge in front of the Marlins and/or the Mets, but anything more than that is a pipe dream.


FANS Playoff Probabilities – NL Version

Last week I presented American League playoff probabilities based on a simulation I had created (which I came to find is similar to the one produced by xls sports if you want to play around with this yourself. They even have incorporated home field which I have not yet). If you are interested in the details of the simulation, give last weeks post a quick read. Remember, these are based off of standings generated from the FANS projections. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the National League results.

East       Div Win %    WC Win %   Playoff %
Braves           56%          9%         65%
Phillies         23%         11%         34%
Marlins          12%          7%         19%
Mets              7%          4%         11%
Nationals         2%          1%          3%
Central    
Cardinals        63%         6%          69%
Cubs             12%         5%          17%
Brewers          11%         5%          16%
Reds             10%         5%          15%
Astros            3%         1%           4%
Pirates           1%         0%           1%
West      
Rockies          35%        12%          47%
Diamondbacks     31%        13%          44%
Dodgers          18%        10%          28%
Giants            9%         6%          15%
Padres            7%         5%          12%

and again some other useful data points compared to historical data

Division        Avg. Wins      2002-2009 Avg Wins
East              94           95
Central           93           93
West              94           91
Wild Card         91           91

The big surprise here is the Braves/Phillies flip-flopping in the East. It would be interesting to go back through the FANS projections for the two teams and see who the FANS are higher/lower on than other projection systems. In the Central, the Cardinals have the tightest hold on any division in baseball according to the FANS, while the West looks like it will be a dogfight.

Next on the simulation to-do list is to simulate some of the most probable playoff scenarios.


Twins Lock Up Span’s Arbitration Years

The Minnesota Twins and Denard Span ensured that the two won’t need the arbitration process, as Span signed a five-year contract worth $16.5 million. The deal covers Span’s two remaining league-minimum seasons, three arbitration seasons, and also contains a $9 million club option for Span’s first free agent year.

Strictly looking at the numbers, this deal is quite reasonable. According to the 40/60/80 scheme of arbitration payouts, Span is receiving $15.7 million for 1.8 free agent seasons after removing the $800K for the first two seasons. That’s paying him as a 2.5 win player, which looks like a bit of a win for the Twins given Span’s 3.25 average WAR in his career so far.

For Span, there’s definitely some monetary value in both the security offered by this deal as well as the ability to avoid the grueling arbitration hearings. Still, I find it surprising that his agent couldn’t do better for him. Span has skills that could earn him money in arbitration, such as his ability to hit for average (.311 in 2009) and to steal bases (41 SBs in two seasons). He will be moving to CF this season, and could have increased his value with another good season at the premium position.

This deal makes sense on many levels for the Twins, aside from the apparent bargain they are receiving. The move to CF for Span could be risky, but if he makes the transition well, he could perform at an all-star level as soon as this year. At 26, Span is probably yet to hit his peak as well, and that could potentially squeeze some more value out of the deal for the Twins.

What particularly makes this deal great from a team perspective for me is the timing of the deal. Many economists say that we are starting to move out of the recession, and that suggests that the marginal value of a win will likely start climbing in 2012 if not before that. By the time 2014 rolls around, $6.5 million may only buy one win instead nearly two. Even more than that, the likely inflation of the win market could make the non-guaranteed 2015 team option look fantastic if Span is still a productive player at the time.

It will be interesting to see if teams share this idea of the market as we continue through the season. If they do, look for a bunch of five- or six-year deals on pre-arbitration players to be signed to take advantage of this lull in the win market.


One-for-One Swaps at the Same Position

Buster Olney’s Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols article has made its rounds and received its share of ridicule. Countless writers have wondered why St. Louis would consider such a swap, beyond the hometown factor Olney raised in the article. There’s no need to rehash the idea or any of the ensuing mockery. The article did make me wonder, though, about the viability of one-for-one, same position trades. Would there be any circumstances under which one would make sense? It would certainly take extenuating circumstances, and likely would take other players to balance the trade on one side. But, forgetting reality for a moment, here are three of the matches I came up with. As you’ll see, none stands a real chance of happening.

Prince Fielder for Kendry Morales

Though he’s only signed through this year, Prince Fielder has one year left of arbitration before he hits free agency. That year could get expensive, as he’s already making $10.5 million in 2010. Another season like his past two could move him in the $15 million range. The Brewers can probably afford this, but they have to think about the team’s future. What happens when Prince skips town and signs with the highest bidder?

Kendry Morales is coming off a breakout year for the Angels. After years of bouncing between AAA and the majors, he hit his stride, and figures to be a switch hitting power for years to come. Good as he is, though, he’s no Prince Fielder. The Angels would likely welcome the upgrade, as it would give them the left-handed bat they’ve sought for years. Too bad it would come after Vladimir Guerrero left town. In exchange for the superior player, the Brewers would get four years of Morales, the first of which at just $700K. His three arbitration years might get expensive, but probably not to Prince’s level.

The Angels have been a shrewd franchise, having let both John Lackey and Chone Figgins leave over the winter without much of a fight. Would they turn around, then, and take on not only a $10.5 million salary for 2010, but perhaps another $15 million for 2011? They do have the money. On the Brewers’ end, would they trade one of their two mid-lineup thumpers to save some money? If they’re going to lose Prince anyway, shouldn’t they try to get the best possible replacement?

Brian Roberts for Scott Sizemore

In the mid-2000s, Brian Roberts was the darling of the Orioles organization. Owner Peter Angelos loves him, and rewarded him last winter with a four-year, $40 million extension. He could still be around, then, if the Orioles make a Rays-esque run in 2011 or 2012. The Orioles might like his veteran presence, but they’d also probably like a young, promising second baseman who would fit among their other young players.

It appears Scott Sizemore, after dominating each level of the minors he faced, will get a shot to start for the Tigers this year. Detroit could again contend for the AL Central title, but will need all the help on offense it can get. Right now that means placing faith in a youngster with a solid minor league track record. But what if it could mean a veteran second baseman who has posted a .356 or better wOBA in four of the last five years, and in all of the last three? It would provide Detroit with a solid option at the keystone.

Detroit, however, worked hard this off-season to keep future payroll in check, so adding an additional $10 million per season for the next four doesn’t really fit with their M.O. Baltimore would probably like the trade in theory, but in practice it’s probably tough to trade the most recognizable player on the team, who also just signed his extension last winter.

Scott Rolen for Brandon Wood

Again we turn back to the Angels, who have a big question mark at third base. Over the past few years Brandon Wood has been on the shuttle between AAA and the majors, though he hasn’t had much success in the bigs. He has accumulated 224 plate appearances over three short stints, amassing a putrid wOBA of .255. He’s slated to start for the Angels at third, and while they still like his potential — he posted .405 and .387 wOBA in AAA in the past two years — they can’t like the uncertainty he brings.

If everything falls in its right place for the Reds, they might have a shot to contend in the NL Central. This means a bounceback season from Aaron Harang, a full good season from Bronson Arroyo, a step forward for Johnny Cueto, and probably a full and speedy recovery from Edinson Volquez. And that doesn’t go into the offense, which certainly needs its share of breaks. Strangely mixed among their young regular is Scott Rolen, acquired at the trade deadline last year from Toronto. Might the Reds enjoy the salary relief, along with the young talent, they’d receive by trading him?

Then again, the way the Reds reworked Rolen’s deal this winter makes him a bit more affordable. He’ll make $6 million this season (his $11 million 2010 salary minus the $5 million that was converted into a signing bonus), followed by $6.5 million in 2011 and the same in 2012. Wood will make a fraction of that over the next few years, which would make Cincinnati more flexible to pay for talent in other spots. But, as with Morales, would the Angels be willing to part with a young, cost-controlled player for a more dependable veteran?

These types of deals just don’t happen

I spent some time going up and down major league rosters yesterday looking for possible candidates. Even when I thought I might have found one — my original Brian Roberts idea involved Skip Schumaker — it seemed completely unrealistic. Even the trades above seem barely inside a liberal realm of possibility. That makes sense, though. Would you expect a team to trade one of its incumbents, straight up, for a player of the same position? I can think of only a scant few situations where both teams would agree to such a swap. And even then, as in the Rolen deal from last summer, we often see other players involved in order to satisfy one of the teams.


Seattle’s Offense

The Seattle Mariners hit 160 home runs last season, the fourth lowest team total in the American League, ahead of only Oakland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. Those three teams combine to average a little under 70 wins. Seattle won 85 behind brilliant defense and the long arm of Felix Hernandez. Naturally, Seattle looked to add some power this off-season, right? Well, not quite.

Russell Branyan, the lone Mariner over 30 homers in 2009, is elsewhere, replaced at first base by Casey Kotchman (career high amount of homers in one season: 14). Jose Lopez was the only other Mariner to hit more than 20, and he’s now at third base, replacing Adrian Beltre and making way for the Mariners’ big free agent acquisition in Chone Figgins (career high: 9). The M’s did add some guys with pop, like Milton Bradley (career high: 22), Ryan Garko (career high: 21), and Eric Byrnes (career high: 26), but clearly the Mariners are not going to win because of the long ball. That raises the question: Do you need home runs to win ball games?

The answer is no, even in the modern era.

From 1998, the last time expansion took place, through the 2008 season, 85 teams won at least 90 games. The average amount of homers hit by the 90+ win teams is 192, the average amount of homers hit per team across the league from 1998-2009 is 174. Nearly 30% of the 90+ win teams between 1998 and 2009 hit fewer than the team average during that time period. It makes sense that most playoff quality teams hit more homers than average because most playoff teams are better than the rest of the league; whether it’s at scoring runs or preventing them.

The correlation coefficient for team wins and team homers between 1998 and 2009 is a not insignificant .19. That’s stronger than the correlation coefficient associated with doubles and wins (.078), triples and wins (.015), but not stronger than the relationship between walks taken and wins (.22). Seattle was second to last in walks last season. They’ve added quite a few patient batters, like the aforementioned Figgins (the only player in the American League with more than 100 walks last season). Despite walks evidently having a stronger relationship to wins, we won’t hear about it. *

In the end, homers and walks are really just means to scoring runs, and scoring runs is just a means to winning ballgames.

*Inevitably, someone will point out the obvious by saying that one walk is worth far less than a homer. That’s absolutely true, but it’s not the argument. I’m not arguing that teams should focus on walks instead of homers or that walks are more valuable than homers, I’m simply showing that walks correlate better with winning games than homers do. There are ways to win without doing either. Just ask the 2007 Angels who didn’t do much walking or homering and still won 94 games.