Archive for March, 2010

Swing (Confessions About a Mechanic)

Part two of the Twitterverse giveback. This suggestions comes way of Jake Larsen, who just so happened to give me a chance to write on DRaysBay. That turned out decently.

Truth be told, when Tommy Rancel suggested an interview with Jaime Cevallos, I was skeptical. Cevallos, self-labeled as The Swing Mechanic, was the man responsible for Ben Zobrist transformation. The process was easy enough though, and Cevallos was a willing participant, so why not? Rancel has gone on to write multiple pieces surrounding what he named The Zobrist Code and Cevallos’ popularity has mushroomed since that interview. Just Google Cevallos’ name and you can see he’s become a bit of a cult figure.

Rancel delves into Cevallos’ history in more detail than I will, but it goes like this: Jaime Cevallos was a scrap-hitting middle infielder who struggled to break the Mendoza line at Saint Mary’s University. Along the way, he began ignoring all outside advice about his swing, and instead looked to the professionals (in this case, he cut out images from issues of Sports Illustrated) for help. After doing this, Cevallos morphed into the Ted Williams of Saint Mary’s University.

Through the ebbs and flows of life, fate found Ben Zobrist and Jaime Cevallos together. Months later, Ben Zobrist became Ben Zobrist. Was it fate? Of course it was. Fate even asked for a finder’s fee. Zobrist, not unlike Cevallos, was a slap-hitting middle infielder who drew comparisons to Jay Bell. During his rookie year of 2006, Zobrist would show bunt in between having the bat knocked out of his hands. Over the last two seasons Zobrist has hit 39 homers in 699 at-bats. Zobrist has 23 career homers in 1,336 minor league at-bats. Saying that appears improbable is being kind.

Zobrist isn’t the only Cevallos’ student to flash improved power, either. The Reds’ Drew Sutton saw his ISO increase after meeting with Cevallos. The Rays’ Justin Ruggiano is in the midst of a scorching spring, hitting .447/.488/.868 in 38 at-bats and reinvigorating a career that appeared to cap at the Triple-A level. And there are other minor leaguers who appear on Cevallos’ site with testimonies on how much Cevallos’ MKNX bat has improved their results, although the numbers come in either too small of a sample size, or do not support these statements.

I’ve been fortunate enough to see a few of Cevallos’ video breakdowns, much like the ones he shares with his hitters, and hear him speak on hitting planes and bat placement. And, look, the guy is very convincing. He’s clearly confident in his abilities and at the very least sounds like he knows a little bit about what it means to swing the bat with power. He’ll flash a few Ted Williams’ images into the fray, then go back to the hitter in question, then switch back to Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime, and yes, it’s very easy to get lost in the whole thing and take Cevallos as a hitting prophet.

Yet, I’m still a skeptic. Players can improve, yes, and Cevallos very well could have found the secrets to unearthing power potential in any batter, but the sample size is just too small to attempt and draw meaningful conclusions about his Midas-like touch. In the end, though, it’s not up to me to decide whether Cevallos’ teachings have merit or not. Plus, at the very least, you have to applaud him for making a bit of a name for himself and having big dreams.

Sometimes success in life depends on being able to convince people of your authority rather than actually being an authority. Isn’t that what some experts are all about?


Jake Fox and the As’ Roster Crunch

[Author’s note: slightly modified to correct my bad arithmetic]

I recently wrote about Oakland’s roster, but there is one thing I didn’t get to: the fate of Jake Fox. Assuming that the As go with 12 pitchers, then the 9 starters, that leaves 4 spots on the 25-man roster. One spot will be taken by backup catcher Landon Powell. Franchise Centerpiece Utility Man Eric Chavez is in as a backup 1B/3B. Adam Rosales is the only player on the roster who could back up Cliff Pennington at shortstop, so he’s in as the backup middle infielder.

That leaves one for four candidates: Gabe Gross, Travis Buck, Eric Patterson, and Jake Fox. Gross and Buck are both decent outfielders, but Gross was acquired for a reason, and he should make the roster. Travis Buck still has an option, so he’ll probably head back to the minors. That assemblage means that Patterson and Fox won’t make the cut, but given that neither has options remaining, they would be exposed to waivers. If the As were to bite the bullet and DFA Zombie Eric Chavez, which should they keep?

While Patterson has played second base, his defense reportedly isn’t that great there. With Rosales presumably making the team for his greater infield defensive abilities, the speedy Patterson would need to make the team on the basis of his abilities as an outfielder. One might make the argument that Gross is really only a corner outfielder, so the As need a backup for center. While I think his defensive numbers show that Gross could be at least adequate in center, it doesn’t matter because, as has often been remarked, the As are already starting three center fielders in Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney. If Crisp goes down, the As can move Davis or Sweeney into center, and put Gross in the corner. Offensively, both CHONE and ZiPS project Patterson for a .320 wOBA, which isn’t all that great.

Jake Fox is clearly a better hitter than Patterson, but where he fits on the team is another issue. While he’s probably a terrible third baseman, he wouldn’t kill the team if he had to play there or first base occasionally, and Rosales can cover third when they need a defensive replacement. Fox might be able to cut it as an emergency fifth outfielder, but that’s not much of an argument for keeping him on the roster, and neither is his potential as an emergency catcher.

Eric Patterson has his uses, and I could see why the As would be loathe to let him go. It’s a tough (if relatively trivial) choice, but I’d go with Fox. He could be platooned with Jack Cust at DH, or play first when Barton needs a rest. Given his CHONE and ZiPS projections, I estimate Fox’s ability versus left-handed pitching to be around .350 wOBA. Given that most of the As’ decent hitters are left-handed, that is likely to be more useful than a fifth-outfielder/pinch-runner.

Of course, this assumes the As are willing to finally cut ties with the injury-ravaged remains of Eric Chavez, and whether they would ever contemplate that, or whether it’s even a good idea, is a post for another day.


Organizational Rankings: #15 – Mets

Ahh, the Mets. So much to say in just 600 words.

Obviously, they’ve made a lot of mistakes in the last year. Omar Minaya has taken a beating here and elsewhere, and the organization appears to be in something of a mess, with the organizational flow chart kind of summing up the front office. Feuds with the players and media, a GM who may or may not be allowed to handle conference calls, an involved (to say the least) ownership group… it’s all just a big circus at times.

It didn’t help that everything that could have gone wrong last year did, from the star players getting hurt to David Wright losing his power, and the team fell apart as a result. As such, the Mets have been the butt of many jokes over the lsat 12 months. Spending a lot of money to be terrible will do that to you, especially when you play in New York.

But, despite all the jokes and all the problems, the Mets actually aren’t in that bad of shape. The revenue stream from being in New York with a new ballpark is significant, obviously, but the core of a good team is still there. Despite last year’s debacle, few teams have a group that can match Wright-Reyes-Beltran-Santana. And it’s not exactly barren after that, either.

Jason Bay may be wildly overpaid, but he’s not useless. There is a mix of solid role players and some good young players. The farm system boasts a couple of high ceiling youngsters. The roster isn’t perfect, but with a few breaks, they could contend this year, and a better management team could build a beast of a team with the resources they have.

In many ways, the Mets are where the Mariners were a couple of years ago – the joke of the league, with some core talent dragged down by bad decision making upstairs. But, a new front office can fix a lot of things in pretty short order, and since the Mets front office probably can’t survive another bad year, the options for them are essentially win or clean house. Neither option is all that bad.

So, while the Mets may do a lot of things hilariously wrong right now, I don’t think fixing the organizations is that big of a task. They don’t have to burn the whole thing down – just get some new people in charge, make some better use of the money they have to spend, and the Mets could be challenging for the NL crown again. It probably won’t happen in 2010, but I don’t think it will take that long.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – New York Mets

What to make of the Mets?

The club currently seems to be drifting a little aimlessly and that indecisiveness can be felt in the minor leagues, as well. The club has some interesting players but they can best be described as promising but raw, especially when discussing the likes of Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Juan Urbina, and Kyle Allen.

The club has also received mixed results from top draft picks like Ike Davis, Reese Havens, and Brad Holt. The lack of first round picks in ’07 and ’09 has hurt – especially since the club doesn’t seem to believe in playing the over-slot game. The ’07 draft was an absolute disaster. As well, the club hasn’t had much luck scouting later round players, with the odd exception like catcher Josh Thole.

If there is one bright spot, it’s the club’s ability to scout the international market. Some of the key players signed by the Mets organization include perennial prospect Fernando Martinez, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Jefry Marte, Cesar Puello, Flores, Urbina,

At the MLB level, the club has two of the most talented young players in the game: David Wright and Jose Reyes. Unfortunately, they are both coming off of nightmarish seasons. The 27-year-old third baseman is entering his seventh MLB season and he experienced his worst power season in ’09 after hitting just 10 homers in 535 at-bats and posting an ISO rate of .140 (His first season below .217). On the plus side, he still hit more than .300 and stole 27 bases. Reyes suffered through injuries in ’09 and appeared in just 36 games. A thyroid condition will likely bite into his 2010 season.

The 24-year-old Daniel Murphy will man first base in 2010 for the Mets but he’s miscast at the position. He’s not likely to produce more than fringe-average power for the position after posting an ISO rate of .160 over the past two seasons. His wOBA of .318 suggests he’s a platoon player at best.

There is some youth in the starting rotation with Mike Pelfrey (26), and Jon Niese (23) but neither player projects as more than a No. 3 starter. The club is currently toying (stupidly) with the idea of keeping 20 year old Mejia at the MLB level to begin 2010. The club would utilize the top prospect – who has just 10 appearances above A-ball – in the bullpen, much like the Rangers did with Neftali Feliz in ’09, albeit for a small portion of the season.

The club’s insistence on rushing its young players through the system is both baffling and frustrating. It’s had its ups (Reyes) and its downs (Martinez). The big league club has a mix of young players and veterans, but I’m not sure it’s the right mix.


Organizational Ranking: Current Talent – Mets

The Mets doled out roughly $150 million in player salaries during the 2009 season and managed to win only 70 games. Suffice to say, that was a poor season. Due in large part to injuries, are the Mets ready to move on and compete in this year’s NL East? It is worth noting that according to current estimates, the Mets are dropping their payroll quite a bit for the 2010 season. Cot’s estimates that the Mets are presently set to outlay a little over $120 million, about an 18% drop from last year’s figure. What have the Mets assembled for that cost?

You the loyal readers and forecasters have pegged the Mets for a modest eight-win improvement in 2010, up to 78 wins and a repeat of their fourth-place finish inside the division. If true, at least they would be much closer than last year finishing 11 games back of the Braves rather than 23 games back of the Phillies. CHONE agrees on the division-leading Braves at 89 wins but it is slightly more optimistic on the Mets picking them for 80 wins and a third-place finish.

The infield is loaded with questions for the Mets, starting behind the plate with some sort of conglomeration of Rod Barajas, Henry Blano and Omir Santos. Barajas, of course, is coming off a season in which he posted a .258 OBP over 460 plate appearances. Santos isn’t much better and Blanco is like 90 years old, not that either Barajas (34) or Santos (soon to be 29) are young guns.

Daniel Murphy at first base is an interesting choice and by interesting, I mean punt-worthy. If the Mets get a league average performance out of him it will be amazing but that’s okay because they have Fernando Tatis backing him up.

Luis Castillo returns at second base. He even managed to hit at an above league average clip last year for the first time in five seasons, but he managed to make up for that with some really poor UZR numbers. Alex Cora is the likely backup both here and at short stop. Luckily the Mets are paying him $2 million to offer replacement level services up the middle.

The Mets are likely to need Cora because Jose Reyes has a thyroid condition of all ailments and might miss time in 2010 on the heels of playing in only 36 games last season. For the Mets to have any realistic shot at the playoffs, they need Reyes to be back on the field and his old five-win self because a full season with Castillo and Cora up the middle would make the rest of the questions moot pretty fast.

Speaking of those questions, is David Wright going to rebound and start hitting for power again? His .447 slugging percentage was a career worst by almost 100 points. Citi Field is not entirely to blame as Wright struggled both at home and on the road to hit long balls.

Carlos Beltran and Jeff Francouer return in the outfield joined by new addition Jason Bay and backed up by Anaheim castoff Gary Matthews Jr. Moving from Fenway Park to Citi Field is going to be a story to watch for Jason Bay.

In the rotation, the Mets are planning to not give Livan Hernandez so many starts which is good, but a certain number of those starts are going to go to Oliver Perez so who knows if that’s actually an improvement or not.

The bullpen was decent overall last season, though that might just be because the Mets were so bad that they didn’t give them a chance to blow a late season division lead. Even though they were close to average overall, the bullpen was nowhere near the revamped unit that the acquisitions of Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz were supposed to provide and 2010 doesn’t look to be much different.

The Mets suffered beyond their fair share of injury bad luck last season but looking over the roster up and down, I agree with the projection systems; the realistic ceiling for this team is around .500 and I’m not sure 2011 looks any rosier.


Organizational Rankings: #16 – Arizona

There are few teams in baseball with as much variance in their potential 2010 outcomes as the Diamondbacks. They have a roster full of questions, but for each one, they also have a potential answer. Is Brandon Webb going to be healthy? Isn’t Chris Young too talented to be that terrible? Can Kelly Johnson bounce back? Is Conor Jackson okay? Was Edwin Jackson’s first half of 2009 a fluke, or will he consolidate some of his gains? Is it too early for Justin Upton to carry a team on his back?

Each of these could go either way, and have a pretty large impact on whether or not Arizona contends in the NL West this year. If a few of those questions get answered in a positive way, the D’Backs have enough talent to keep up with the Dodgers and Rockies in the NL West. Dan Haren and a healthy Webb forms a dynamic front of the rotation, and the offense could be pretty good, especially if Jackson rebounds or Young remembers how to hit.

Of course, things could go the other way as well. Webb may start the year on the DL, and his status is up in the air. C. Jackson’s moving back to the outfield after missing most of 2009, so how well he’ll play is anyone’s guess. E. Jackson is a perennial enigma who has had more bad years than good. If either Haren or Upton go down for any length of time, the parties over, because those two are critical pieces that can’t really be replaced.

The Diamondbacks could win anywhere between 65 and 95 games. I know, that’s the kind of hard hitting analysis you come to FanGraphs for. But it’s true – they may project out as a .500 club, but there are a lot of variables that could push them either direction.

Going forward, there are some really good pieces in place. Upton is one of the most valuable pieces in all of baseball. Haren is a true ace. Reynolds is a good player making a lot less than he’s worth. The core may be wide, but it is strong, and it is surrounded by guys who aren’t terrible. There are no bad long term contracts sitting on the books, and the team should have the financial flexibility to add a piece or two to help put them over the top in the future.

There is more right than wrong in Arizona. It may not manifest itself in a playoff berth this year, but if you’re an Arizona fan, I think you have to be pleased in general with what the organization has put together.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Arizona

The organization has not had the results over the past five years at the MLB level that it would have liked. However, there is good news for the fan base. The club is developing some exciting talent – especially on offense.

The club’s youth movement is led by 22-year-old outfielder Justin Upton, who posted a wOBA of .388 in ’09. He was also a 20-20 player who batted .300. Add in his defensive value and he’s one of the brightest young stars in the game. Fellow outfielder Chris Young is loaded with potential but the 26 year old was demoted to triple-A in ’09 and hit just .212/.311/.400 in 433 MLB at-bats. With that said, he’s already has one big league season with 30+ homers to his credit. Gerardo Parra, 22, received unexpected playing time in the Diamondbacks outfield in ’09 thanks to the injury to Conor Jackson and Young’s ineffectiveness. Parra posted a .313 wOBA and hit a soft .290 but he has a lot of potential.

On the left side of the infield, third baseman Mark Reynolds is just 26 and he slammed 44 homers and stole 24 bases last season. Stephen Drew recently turned 27 and he’s looking to finally tap into his star potential, but time is running out. Behind the plate, Miguel Montero, 26, took advantage of an injury to Chris Snyder to seize the full-time catching gig. The club will employ a veteran one-year gap at first base in Adam LaRoche but prospect Brandon Allen could be knocking on the door by mid-season.

Although technically a veteran, starter Edwin Jackson is just 26 and he was acquired this past off-season from the Detroit Tigers and provides excellent value as a No. 3 starter. The club also acquired Ian Kennedy from the Yankees and he has a good chance of developing into a solid National League hurler.

The club has had a few down years with the draft in recent seasons, which has led to little or no depth in the upper minors. The club has also traded away a number of prospects in an effort to “win now.” The club’s top prospect and 2007 1st round pick – Jarrod Parker – will miss much of the 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in ’09. There is a light at the end of the tunnel for the player development staff. The club had seven picks before the third round of the 2009 amateur draft and the club did not go cheap. It also nabbed a few interesting over-slot players in later rounds.

General manager Josh Byrnes certainly appears to have this organization headed in the right direction. Scouting director Tom Allison returns for his fourth season and he’ll look to build off of his ’09 draft, albeit with fewer premium picks. Former farm director A.J. Hinch graduated to manager in ’09 and he was replaced by Mike Berger, who will continue overseeing the prospects in 2010.

The puzzle is not quite finished but the organization is getting closer and closer to the goal of being a force to be reckoned with in the National League.


Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Arizona

The Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have quite a few players who have either under- or outperformed the baseballing community’s initial assessments of them. Of course, this isn’t true of all the D-Backs — I mean, Augie Ojeda is probably right about where you’d expect him to be — but still, to this author’s mind, it does appear as though the team possesses quite a few players who were misread initially.

Which is why, for this edition of Current Talent — and to appease that part of the brain that looks for patterns in everything — we’ll look at three categories of D-Back: the Outperformers, the Underperformers, and then the Other Guys.

Outperformers

There were big concerns about Mark Reynolds‘ contact rates and major league position. A 2007 injury to Chad Tracy solved the latter; as for the former, well, it turns out that if you hit 44 homers and take some walks, you’re okay. How could wunderkind Justin Upton outperform his pedigree? Pretty easy, actually; by being better than these guys: Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, and Matt Bush. Those are the three Number One Picks before Upton.

Dan Haren was, at one point, traded for Mark Mulder. Now he’s basically a lock for about 200 innings of low-3s FIP. Back in the day, Brandon Webb was an eighth round pick out of Kentucky. Before last year’s injury, he was a constant threat for the Cy Young. That’s what a sinkpiece and an outpitch will do for you. (Although, it needs to be said, the injury is of great concern right now.) Chad Qualls received the Heath Bell treatment for some years. Now he’s en route to becoming a Proven Closer. Like Bell, he’s got sweet groundball numbers.

Underperformers

It’s almost definitely unfair to deem an underachiever somone who’s projected by CHONE to post a 2.8 WAR, but shortstop Stephen Drew hasn’t yet become the player that the prospect maven community expected. Slightly above average isn’t bad, mind you, but that wasn’t the original assessment. “Left fielder” Conor Jackson was hailed for his excellent plate discipline — and it’s true, he’s has always had pretty excellent numbers as far as that goes (10.2% BB rate versus 13.0% K rate). Thing is, if you play corner outfield — and your name’s not Ichiro — you should probably jack a donger every once in a while. “Power-speed combo” must’ve been thrown around like a million times about center fielder Chris Young before he made his debut. Unfortunately, people said the same thing about Corey Patterson, too. Like Patterson, Young hasn’t really figured out how to get on base, and his career 91 wRC+ shows it.

Starter Edwin Jackson appears poised for a career as a league-average innings-thrower. That’s worth something, for sure — just not what we expected. Ian Kennedy will get an chance immediate chance to prove himself in the D-Backs’ rotation this spring. His 43/37 K/BB ratio in 59.2 major league innings bears little resemblance to the 273/77 K/BB in 248.2 minor league ones.

Other Guys

Miguel Montero seems to have successfully banished fellow catcher Chris Snyder to the role of back-up. Both are offensive pluses. Adam LaRoche will play an average-ish first base and hit like Albert Pujols — starting in mid-July. Second baseman Kelly Johnson got taught a lesson in random variation last season as his BABIP plummted to .247. That’s unlikely to happen again.

On the bench you got Ryan Roberts, who’s not bad at all, backing up non-shortstop infield positions; the lovable Augie Ojeda ready to fill in for Stephen Drew; and 23-year-old Gerardo Parra, The giant and powerful Brandon Allen might make an appearance at some point.

Billy Buckner posted a 3.95 xFIP last season, largely on the strength of a groundball rate (48.8%) that far surpassed his previous major league numbers. He’s poised to pick up many of Webb’s lost innings. Rodrigo Lopez and Kevin Mulvey represent a name you thought you’d never hear again and a name you may never hear again.

Finally, like many teams, the D-Backs have a bullpen. In this case it’s not the beacon of excitement. Juan Gutierrez has some of the proverbial giddy-up on his fastball (94.8 mph last year) and his slider came out to 3.00 runs per 100 pitched. Aaron Heilman is meh-worthy and Bob Howry throws a straightball. Clay Zavada and Zachary Kroenke are LOOGY-types, but only one has the facial hair of a medieval knight. Bobby Cox attempted to detach Blaine Boyer’s arm in Atlanta. Let’s hope it still works.


Dead Money

Every season some teams spend money on players that are going to be on other team’s rosters. For example, according to Cots Contracts, the Red Sox will be paying $9.25M for Julio Lugo to play for the Cardinals. I thought it would be interesting to see which teams had the most “dead money” on the books for 2010. The list, sorted by % of payroll devoted to “dead money” is as follows (all data from Cots)

Team           Dead Money       % of Payroll
Blue Jays      $16M                23%
Dodgers        $16.6M              16%
Angels         $16.1M              14%
Rangers        $6.8M               10%
Brewers        $8.5M               10%

The rest of the list can be found here.

Outside of the Blue Jays, the teams at the top of the list all expect to be in their respective pennant races for a large portion of the season (and the various projection systems expect it too). However, I will also point out that, at least according to those same projections, the Angels, Dodgers, and Brewers appear to be chasing the leaders by a couple of wins in their divisions and this extra money could help close or erase that gap.

The fact that the dead money leaders are going to be in the mix is not entirely surprising as “dead money” is an indictment of past contractual transgressions and does not necessarily reflect on the current management (see Mariners and Yuniesky Betancourt). Also, one years worth of information is hardly enough to draw conclusions from no matter how the teams fell out on the list, but I still found the list interesting.


Expect Jays to Cash in Current Talent for Future

Last week, as part of the Organizational Rankings series, I summarized the Blue Jays’ current talent while Marc Hulet discussed the team’s future. The team’s story is pretty basic. There’s no way they can compete with the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees this year, but after an off-season spent rebuilding for 2011 and beyond the Jays could certainly enter the AL East mix over the next few years. Marc’s write-up reflects that. One point that both of us missed, and what Dave Cameron only briefly touched on, is the tradeable talent on Toronto’s roster.

Ken Rosenthal touched on this in a recent column, but I think he’s looking in the wrong places. Jason Frasor and Scott Downs are no doubt quality relievers, and could fetch the Jays a young player or two if traded mid-season. Neither, however, figures to net them an A prospect. That’s just not the going rate for relief pitchers over age 30 who are not only relatively expensive, but who are also free agents after the season. Thankfully for the Jays, they have other players they could combine with these two to create a more palatable trade situation.

A team seeking a first baseman mid-season might have interest in Lyle Overbay. In the final year of a four-year, $24 million deal, Overbay will earn just $7 million this season before hitting free agency. He’s been quite productive over the past two seasons, posting .342 and .363 wOBAs and producing 2.0 and 2.2 WAR. The only year in the past five that he has failed to produce 2 WAR was 2007, when a broken hand, suffered on a HBP, caused him to miss more than a month. He produced horribly upon his return and the effect seemingly spilled into 2008. In 2009 he was back at a high production level. He also plays good defense, a 6.2 UZR over the past three seasons.

On Opening Day, Shaun Marcum will take the hill for the Jays. He hasn’t pitched in a game since September, 2008, when he he injured his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery. He also only pitched 15.2 rehab innings last season. While Marcum is still under control for the next three seasons, the Jays could use that to their advantage. If he gets off to a hot start they could trade him to a contender in need of a back of the rotation starter. With his relative cheapness, his ability to pitch in the rotation, and his three remaining years of team control, he might be attractive to other teams. This is all dependent, of course, on his successful return from surgery.

It might seem odd for the Jays to trade a player who hit 37 home runs last season, but they could have the opportunity to deal Aaron Hill. It’s not likely. After all, the Jays don’t have someone ready to plug into second base, and a middle infield of Alex Gonzalez and John McDonald would be beyond disastrous on offense. In the future they could have Brad Emaus at the position. He didn’t make Marc Hulet’s top 10 Jays prospects list, but Baseball America says he has the best strike zone discipline in the system. Would the Jays trade a 28-year-old who is under contract for at least one more season at a reasonable salary? It depends on the return, of course, but while I think it’s unlikely I wouldn’t completely rule out a Hill trade. It could come after the season, too.

Chances are the Jays will trade one or more of these players during or just after the 2010 season. The team knows its position, and realizes that the only way to compete with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox is to maximize production from young, cost-controlled players while filling the gaps with free agents. They’re not ready for that last part yet, but they could position themselves better for the first part by trading some of their more dependable veterans.