Organizational Rankings: #15 – Mets

Ahh, the Mets. So much to say in just 600 words.

Obviously, they’ve made a lot of mistakes in the last year. Omar Minaya has taken a beating here and elsewhere, and the organization appears to be in something of a mess, with the organizational flow chart kind of summing up the front office. Feuds with the players and media, a GM who may or may not be allowed to handle conference calls, an involved (to say the least) ownership group… it’s all just a big circus at times.

It didn’t help that everything that could have gone wrong last year did, from the star players getting hurt to David Wright losing his power, and the team fell apart as a result. As such, the Mets have been the butt of many jokes over the lsat 12 months. Spending a lot of money to be terrible will do that to you, especially when you play in New York.

But, despite all the jokes and all the problems, the Mets actually aren’t in that bad of shape. The revenue stream from being in New York with a new ballpark is significant, obviously, but the core of a good team is still there. Despite last year’s debacle, few teams have a group that can match Wright-Reyes-Beltran-Santana. And it’s not exactly barren after that, either.

Jason Bay may be wildly overpaid, but he’s not useless. There is a mix of solid role players and some good young players. The farm system boasts a couple of high ceiling youngsters. The roster isn’t perfect, but with a few breaks, they could contend this year, and a better management team could build a beast of a team with the resources they have.

In many ways, the Mets are where the Mariners were a couple of years ago – the joke of the league, with some core talent dragged down by bad decision making upstairs. But, a new front office can fix a lot of things in pretty short order, and since the Mets front office probably can’t survive another bad year, the options for them are essentially win or clean house. Neither option is all that bad.

So, while the Mets may do a lot of things hilariously wrong right now, I don’t think fixing the organizations is that big of a task. They don’t have to burn the whole thing down – just get some new people in charge, make some better use of the money they have to spend, and the Mets could be challenging for the NL crown again. It probably won’t happen in 2010, but I don’t think it will take that long.

We hoped you liked reading Organizational Rankings: #15 – Mets by Dave Cameron!

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CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

More well-balanced and no factual errors.

I don’t disagree with placing the Mets 15th overall as an organization, as the front office and Omar do have issues. But I do disagree with the prediction that they won’t contend in 2010. They will be in the race up till the end so long as they avoid the number of injuries that plagued the team all up and down the roster last year.

Zack
Guest
Zack

How can you say they’ll be in contention for the playoffs when you look at their rotation?

Santana- coming off surgery, but ill say he’ll be close to his usual self
Pelfry- Is he going to make progress from his 08 season, or his 09 season?
Maine- cant stay healthy, and only goes 5 IP when he does pitch
Perez- what are you expecting out of this guy?
Niese- want me to say he’ll have a good/inconsistant season? ok.

CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

Because Zack, they had virtually the same rotation last year and were in first place in June before the $@% hit the fan with all the injuries.

And …

Santana — no issue with the same minor bone chip surgery he had prior to one of his previous Cy Young years.
Pelfrey — Verducci effect in 2009.
Maine — That’s why there is better depth this year
Perez — it’s anyone’s guess but he is healthier & in better shape than last year
Niese — No one knows but again, that’s why the Mets have better depth this year.

All rotations have question marks. Even the Braves, who probably have the best rotation in the division have issues. I don’t expect much from Kawakami and Lowe, and Jurgens has health issues. As for the Phillies, Hamels went backwards last year and who knows what Moyer can do. Halladay merely replaced Lee.

Sam
Guest
Sam

Verducci Effect for Pelfrey in 2009? How so? His xFIP from 2008 and 2009 are virtually identical. He was lucky in 2008, not so much in 2009. His stuff seems to have been ok as well; almost identical velocity on his fastballs.

There may be some impact to having a sudden innings jump in the previous year, but Verducci’s “proof” of that effect leaves a lot to be desired.

CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

Not that I’m a big believer in FIP, but his FIP did increase 43 points from 2008 to 2009. How would FIP or xFIP disprove the Verducci effect anyway?

Verducci’s proof of that effect is anecdotal and it works for me. I think there’s something to it. It doesn’t impact all players, but a lot of them.

Zack
Guest
Zack

“I don’t expect much from Kawakami and Lowe”
Based on what? And are you expecting them to be worse than Perez/Maine?

“As for the Phillies, Hamels went backwards last year and who knows what Moyer can do. Halladay merely replaced Lee.”

No he didnt; Hamels had the same K rate, same BB rate, same FIP, only thing that changed was his BABIP.
Cliff Lee made 12 starts for the Phillies, Doc will make 30+. So NO, Doc doesnt “merely” replace Lee.

CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

“Based on what? And are you expecting them to be worse than Perez/Maine?”

Based on age and poor/lackluster seasons last year. I am expecting them to be just as questionable as Perez/Maine.

“No he didnt; Hamels had the same K rate, same BB rate, same FIP, only thing that changed was his BABIP.

Yes, he did. His WHIP and ERA went up. And I know you’re going to give me a big “ERA and WHIP are bunk” argument but don’t bother. I don’t think fielding independent stats are everything.

“Cliff Lee made 12 starts for the Phillies, Doc will make 30+. So NO, Doc doesnt “merely” replace Lee.”

And Moyer is a year older, and Hamels regressed in 2009. So that mitigates to a large extent the additional starts by Halladay.

Zack
Guest
Zack

“Based on age and poor/lackluster seasons last year. I am expecting them to be just as questionable as Perez/Maine. ”

So they had better/healthier seasons that Perez/Maine, yet they are just as questionable? Good logic. And ‘age’ isnt a good reason, Maine is younger but has throw over 140 IP in the bigs ONE time in his career.

“And I know you’re going to give me a big “ERA and WHIP are bunk” argument but don’t bother. I don’t think fielding independent stats are everything.”

No that’s BS- how about you make your argument without ERA and WHIP…. exactly. Tell me how he regressed if his K rate and BB rate improved slightly and his HR/9 the same. The only thing that changed was his hits, coincidently his BABIP also increased. But yeah he regressed, good job.

“And Moyer is a year older, and Hamels regressed in 2009. So that mitigates to a large extent the additional starts by Halladay.”

Ok, the Phillies rotation is better than the Mets…
Doc > Johan
Hamels + Blanton > Your #2 & 3
Happ (did you see his ERA!!1!) > Your #4
Sure question mark at 5, the Mets have question marks at 2, 3, 4, and 5.

CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

“So they had better/healthier seasons that Perez/Maine, yet they are just as questionable? … And ‘age’ isnt a good reason”

They had a better or healthier season than Perez/Maine but not both. Maine pitched better than Lowe with a lower ERA/ERA+. And Kawakami only made 25 starts. Not exactly a workhorse. Both Kawakami and Lowe are considerably older than Maine and Perez. They are more heavily prone to decline and stamina/injury issues at their age. So, yes, age IS an issue.

“No that’s BS- how about you make your argument without ERA and WHIP….”

That’s NOT BS. Hamels regressed with:

–Much higher ERA
–Much higher WHIP
–Fewer total innings
–Fewer total innings/start

Just because he may have had the same seasonal strikeout rate or better BB rate doesn’t mean he was able to make the pitch he wanted to at the right time with as much regularity as he could the year before.

“Ok, the Phillies rotation is better than the Mets…”

Agreed, but not to the extent you are making it out to be. I don’t think it’s big. They have question marks in Hamels and Moyer … and while Happ had a good year, lets see what he does his sophomore year as a starter now that the league has a book on him. He’s a question mark too, though a smaller one.

Also, the Mets bullpen is better than the Phillies. Can Lidge even pitch now? This edge should mitigate somewhat the edge the Phillies have with their rotation.

BTW, why are you jumping up and down over Happ’s ERA when you don’t believe in ERA and think it is BS??

Zack
Guest
Zack

“They had a better or healthier season than Perez/Maine but not both. Maine pitched better than Lowe with a lower ERA/ERA+.”

Maine pitched 80 freaking innings last year, 140 the year before, come on.
Kawakami made 25 starts because they had 6 starters and need to see if Hudson was able to pitch. He wasnt injured- unlike the “younger” Perez and Maine.

Kawakami and Lowe are both healthier and better than Maine and Perez.

“That’s NOT BS. Hamels regressed with:”

The IP and IP/S were caused by giving up more hits, which causes him to make more pitches.
Obviously you’re not going to agree with me, but sorrry that I dont live in the world of ERA, W/L, etc.

“Also, the Mets bullpen is better than the Phillies. Can Lidge even pitch now? This edge should mitigate somewhat the edge the Phillies have with their rotation.”

Lidge was pitching with a bum knee and elbow spur all year (simple surgery for Johan so simple for Lidge too right?).
Who is in the Mets bullpen? Krod, Feliciano (for lefties) and who? Igarushi? Green? I wouldnt call that better than Lidge, Madson, Romero, especially when post ASB KRod was probably just as bad as Lidge.

“BTW, why are you jumping up and down over Happ’s ERA when you don’t believe in ERA and think it is BS??”

The ERA!!1! was sarcasm, i’ll try to do it better next time.

CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

“Maine pitched 80 freaking innings last year, 140 the year before,”

… and 191 the year before that. He’s had surgery to correct what was bothering him for close to two years and is fully healthy now. I would rather have him than Lowe and believe he will have a better year than Lowe as he did last year.

“Kawakami made 25 starts because they had 6 starters and need to see if Hudson was able to pitch.”

Even if Hudson hadn’t taken his spot, I doubt Kawakami could have exceeded those innings and done decently. He hasn’t pitched over 156 innings in a few years, he’s old, and they pitch more infrequently in Japan. There is no way he will pitch close to 200 innings and pitch decently this year.

“Kawakami and Lowe are both healthier and better than Maine and Perez.”

Not now. Both Maine and Perez are healthy now. And both Lowe and Kawakami have the big age risk. That is independent of any health issues. I will take Maine over Lowe any day of the week.

Also, what about Jurrjens? He could have a chronic shoulder issue that adds another big question mark to the Braves rotation.

“The IP and IP/S were caused by giving up more hits, which causes him to make more pitches.”

That would make some sense if not for the fact Hamel’s pitch count per game fell in 2009 as well — by about 7 pitches per start.

“Obviously you’re not going to agree with me, but sorrry that I dont live in the world of ERA, W/L, etc.”

Sorry, but I don’t live in the world of W-L either. My world does have ERA/WHIP in it and will continue to do so.

“Lidge was pitching with a bum knee and elbow spur all year (simple surgery for Johan so simple for Lidge too right?).”

You couldn’t be more WRONG! Lidge had surgery to fix a flexor tendon in addition to getting chips taken out. That’s a world of difference, lol.

In addition, Santana is already in shape to start the season with no noticeable ill effects from whatever ailed him last year. Lidge is still MIA from spring training.

Also, Romero had even more extensive surgery than Lidge, and he’s also been MIA from spring training! Their bullpen is chock full of question marks!

“Who is in the Mets bullpen?”

K-Rod, Feliciano, Calero, Igarishi, Takahashi, Figueroa/Nieve — ALL HEALTHY AND PITCHING WELL!

That’s much better than a Lidge (??? & MIA), Romero (??? & MIA), Madson, and whomever.

“post ASB KRod was probably just as bad as Lidge.”

He was actually better, but it is irrelevant. He was getting irregular work and pitching for a losing team during the second half. His first half was stellar, unlike Lidge who sucked all year long. And K-Rod has zero health issues.

Smeck
Guest
Smeck

Not sure I want to jump into this fracas, but if you can write off Pelfrey’s 2009 due to the ‘Verducci’ effect (or is it affect?)…why can’t you just claim the same for Cole Hamels?

CaseyB
Guest
CaseyB

Smeck, that’s a valid point which I agree with. Both pitchers were candidates for the effect, and both went backwards last year.

So both are question marks for this year.