Archive for March, 2010

Cincinnati’s Fly-Ball Rotation

A couple weeks ago Dave C. — in the followup to his call for questions — talked the effect one teammate can have on the value or performance of another. The idea being if the skill sets of players A and B are complementary maybe the value of player A and B together could be greater than the value of player A alone plus the value of player B alone. The value of a player could be context dependent. Similarly the value of a player could change based on his home park.

Some examples: the Seattle’s big ball park and good outfield defenders make fly-ball pitchers not as much of a liability for them as they would be for the average team; Cleveland’s infield defense is even more important to them than to an average team because of their ground-ball heavy rotation; ground-ball pitchers are worth even more to the Colorado Rockies because of their home park; and, most importantly, how Carson tried to construct his Rob Neyer-league team around the peculiarities of circa-1915 Fenway (not that it has worked out for him).

In each case you have a synergy in which the value of a player is enhanced by the context (his teammates or ballpark) he plays in. What got me thinking about this was yesterday’s current talent post about the Reds, where it seems there might be a synergy in the opposite direction. They Reds play in a tiny park that inflates home run rates by 12%, one of the highest in the league. In such a context fly-ball pitchers would be even worse than in an average context. But the Reds’s rotation is stocked with such pitchers. Aaron Harang and Micah Owings are extreme fly-ball pitchers, while Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo have above-average fly-ball rates (although Arroyo was a little better last year). Homer Bailey has about average fly-ball rates. These fly-ball pitchers would be more valuable to the average team than they are to Cincinnati because of the additional HRs they should give up on their fly balls there.

Obviously you want the most talented players on your team and these synergistic concerns should be secondary, but it would be interesting to see whether one could quantify their effect. How many additional runs is each Harang fly ball worth in Cincinnati compared to if he were playing in the average ball park, or better yet in Trop in front of a Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton?


Pitching on Shawn Camp

With the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs needing late inning relief help, a lot of attention has been shined upon Toronto’s Jason Frasor. Such a deal would make sense. After all, Toronto made a similar trade earlier this off-season when they traded Brandon League to Seattle for Brandon Morrow. Say what you want about J.P. Ricciardi, the man built a nice bullpen, and trading another reliever won’t exactly turn the Jays’ pen in to the worst in the league – and if it does, what difference does it make for this version of the Jays?

All the attention seems to be simmering around Frasor and lefty Scott Downs. For teams like the Twins and Cubs, they should focus a little lower on the Jays’ depth chart in order to find a potential bargain. Not to Jeremy Accardo, the tantalizing flamethrower, but on Shawn Camp. The six-foot-nothing righty who lays claim to being one of the few pitchers that was neither good enough for the Royals or Devil Rays bullpen within a three-year span. Usually that’s enough to kill a career, yet the exact opposite has occurred. Take a look at Camp’s FIP by year:

2004: 4.41
2005: 3.98

Signed with the Rays

2006: 4.33
2007: 5.29

Signed with the Jays

2008: 3.21
2009: 4.03

The 2007 season inspired nightmares. Camp’s 7.20 ERA (in 40 innings) was fueled in large part by a .422 BABIP. Since then, though, he’s popped back with his two best seasons. Along the way, Camp has picked up a change-up to go with his fastball and slider combination. Camp did more than pick the pitch up; he threw it over 30% of the time in 2009. That story is eerily similar to Brandon League’s 2009. Although unlike League, Camp’s fastball doesn’t touch 94 MPH in a hurricane. Instead it sits around 88, and Camp relies on mixing speeds more than the baker man. Camp actually worked in higher leveraged situations on average than League did last season while missing a career high percentage of bats.

What makes Camp intriguing besides his (presumably) lower trade return and modest salary just over a million dollars? He’s a groundball machine (56% career) and devours righties (career 3.05 K/BB ratio against them). Any pitcher who can survive in the American League East is worthy of a look-see, and a transition into the American or National League Central would almost certainly improve his numbers, albeit on a marginal level.

For a team on a manhunt that makes Jennifer Anniston blush, Camp certainly makes sense, even if it means living with the jokes about his big ears and country demeanor after the occasional rough outing.


Tim Lincecum in 2010

After Tim Lincecum got off to a rough start, I wrote that perhaps 2008 would be his peak season. No shame in that. Only 20 individual pitching seasons had accumulated at least 7 WAR, one of those was Lincecum’s 2008. Naturally, he responded by pitching even better in 2009, and finished with a WAR above 8. So, with the odds on my side, I feel comfortable taking a shot at this again. What are the odds that Lincecum makes me look like a moron again? Well, here’s a list of every pitcher season to post at least 7 WAR during a single season in our database that data available for the season afterwards:

Curt Schilling 2002
Randy Johnson 2002
Pedro Martinez 2002
Roy Halladay 2002
Roy Halladay 2003
Pedro Martinez 2003
Mark Prior 2003
Esteban Loaiza 2003
Randy Johnson 2004
Ben Sheets 2004
Johan Santana 2004
Curt Schilling 2004
Johan Santana 2005
Johan Santana 2006
Brandon Webb 2006
CC Sabathia 2007
CC Sabathia 2008
Tim Lincecum 2008
Roy Halladay 2008
Cliff Lee 2008

That list is full of some all-time great pitchers pitching some all-time great seasons. The average WAR of those spectacular seasons is 7.8, with a spread of 2.9 wins (9.7 being the max, 7 the min). In the year after, the average fell to 5.5 wins with a spread of 6.8 wins (8.2 by Lincecum being the highest, and 1.4 by Esteban Loiza being the lowest). Roughly two-thirds of those pitchers failed to post 7+ WAR in consecutive seasons, which shows just how rare Lincecum’s feat was, and only one pitcher (Johan Santana) pulled the feat in three straight years.

Assuming my SQL database skills are still in the best shape of their life (meaning replacement level as a ceiling) there were 660 individual seasons of 25+ starts between 2002 and 2008. We had 20 seasons with 7+ WAR, 6 with 8+ WAR, and 4 with 8.3+ WAR. By those numbers, and completely ignoring that Lincecum is clearly better than most, if not nearly all of those pitchers, he has something like a half of a percent’s shot at reaching 8.3 WAR next year. That’s without figuring in that he just had an 8 win season, and that nobody who recorded at least 8 WAR in a single season has replicated that success (although Pedro Martinez did reach 7.9, which is basically the same thing).

Some encountered more bad luck, others injuries, and yes, Lincecum is a fantastic arm and talent, but so were most of those guys. So yeah, I feel comfortable betting against Lincecum being even better this season. And hey, if he does make me look bad once more, then we’re all winners by witnessing The Freak at his best.

For extra credit I’d suggest reading this Book Blog thread. It’s about that Stephen Strasburg cat and projecting his ERA. Even if you don’t understand most of the comments at first read, and heavens I sure didn’t, you should still absorb something worthwhile.


Projecting Chapman

There are a lot of factors in play that make Aroldis Chapman one of the most exciting subplots of the 2010 season. There’s the 101 mph fastball. There’s Dusty Baker. There’s the Cuba-to-America transition. No matter what angle you come from, there’s intrigue to be had. And given the perfect storm of Reds availability at this moment — featured today at #20 in our organizational rankings, and currently on MLB Network (with Aroldis on the mound today) — I wanted to check into where the readership stands on Chapman’s rookie season.

Over at Tango’s blog, there has been a fascinating discussion on Stephen Strasburg, and the very optimistic 2.86 ERA the Oliver projection system at Hardball Times spit out (ground we covered a bit here when I forecasted a 3.95 FIP). This followed with a poll that Tango asked, “the chance Strasburg will post an ERA BELOW 2.50 = the chance he will post an ERA ABOVE…” So, in addition to asking what kind of innings totals we are expecting from Chapman, and what kind of component FIP statistics you project, I’m going to duplicate Tango’s question as well.

If you’d like to participate, just click on the survey below. We’ll let it stay live for the rest of the week, and I’ll return after his next appearance to report the findings, and shed some light on my votes (and impressions on his outings this spring). Now I turn it over to you.




Organizational Rankings: #19 – Oakland

Billy Beane and the rest of the A’s front office got famous for being the most visible sabermetric organization, and as Matt noted, it served them well for the first half of the decade. They exploited opportunities in value to build contending teams on the cheap, and were able to win in spite of low payrolls and general fan disinterest.

Unfortunately for the A’s, the proverbial cat is out of the bag. The list of organizations that could now be described as stat-centric is longer than ever. Everyone is now reading from the same general playbook, and while there will always be inefficiencies to exploit, they are now much, much harder to monopolize. When the A’s were going for OBP or defense, they didn’t have many people bidding for those types of players – now, they’re fighting big market franchises with similar ideals when they try to pursue players like Adrian Beltre.

Beyond just a league wide acceptance of the principles the A’s have built their organization on, their division is now an ineptitude free zone. The Mariners went from disaster to contender at the same time that the Rangers built a monster farm system and have committed themselves to spending wisely rather than wasting money on big money contracts for mediocre pitchers. And, of course, there’s the Angels, flexing their big market payroll and keeping the talent flowing from their minor league system.

The AL West is no longer an easy division to win, and it’s only getting stronger. While the A’s are still a very well run team, their relative advantage over their peers has all but evaporated, and now they’re fighting an up hill battle to contend against better resourced smart teams.

Unfortunately for the A’s, their best chance to win is now to hope they catch a few breaks, and that’s the direction they’ve headed. They bet their 2010 season on the health of Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer; if it works, they could contend, but if they both land on the DL, there’s not enough talent in Oakland to keep up with the rest of the division.

If this was just a one year thing, that would be okay, but this is essentially what the A’s are going to have to do on an annual basis. They can’t afford low risk premium talent, so they’ll have to bet on guys with baggage to get the necessary upside onto the roster. It will work sometimes, but other years it will fail spectacularly, because the A’s playoff hopes are now going to inevitably be tied to keeping injury prone guys healthy (or hoping that whatever other risk they’ve taken on doesn’t come to fruition).

You can’t blame the A’s for adopting this strategy, given the circumstances. It will allow them to contend, just not annually. Given their budget and the relative strength of their competitors, that might be the best they can hope for until they get a better stadium, better attendance, or both.


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Oakland

Dare I say, the Oakland A’s have the most incongruous group of young talent in any Major League organization. In one cluster, you have these unathletic sluggers like Chris Carter or Jake Fox, but in the other, the team seems dedicated to defensive fast-twitch guys like Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis and Jemile Weeks. The pitching side is just as schizophrenic, with the talents ranging from prep stars (Brett Anderson, Ian Krol) to the polished college players (Dallas Braden, Tyson Ross); from the international heists (Pedro Figueroa) to the Dominican bonus baby (Michael Ynoa). It’s fascinating to see a team once so self-limiting now dedicated to casting a wide net.

This is not a bad thing by any means, even if it makes summarizing their future talent in 600 words a difficult proposition. Oakland is simply now an organization that seeks out the best value where they can find it, seemingly discarding the process that made them endearing to Hollywood. They are left with a lot of depth, an identity I can’t put my finger on, and one of the most interesting futures of any team. And Brett Anderson, who has the advantage of counting Dave Cameron among his fan boys. If Anderson can maintain the velocity that he showed late last season — and there’s little reason to think he can’t — there isn’t a skill he doesn’t possess. He will be the A’s best pitcher for the next five seasons.

Their best position player is harder to come by. Chris Carter, I think, will be their best hitter. I was impressed in Spring Training to see a slimmed down version of who I’d heard about, but scouts still don’t like his defense. Assuming a -5 glove, Carter will need to hit like 2007 Jack Cust (.256/.408/.504) to be 3 wins above replacement. I think Carter can be in .900 OPS territory, but digging out of such a hole to get to 3-4 WAR is not where you want to be. Michael Taylor is in a similar boat, needing to be +22.5 or so with the bat to be a three-win guy. Kurt Suzuki has been one of the game’s most consistent players for three seasons, and should peak somewhere between that 3-4 WAR bubble, depending on how you view his defense. All-Joy Team member Ryan Sweeney also can get to that level on defense alone, so the A’s should be willing to put up with a league average bat. Whether it’s Jemile Weeks or Eric Sogard, Rajai Davis or Adrian Cardenas, I see a lot of guys that will struggle to get past four wins.

So, in a way, as different as these players seem by pedigree, the A’s are hoarding players that should be locks for 2-4 WAR for their team-controlled seasons. It’s democratic, but it will be hard to compete with such a forward thinking division unless some of these players blossom into stars. I like Grant Green and Max Stassi quite a bit, but they are years away from contributing. As far as the pitchers behind Anderson go, you again have a lot of similarly valued talent, if a little more in way of upside. Trevor Cahill will be better in 2010, but his strikeout rate bears watching. I like Vin Mazzaro a lot, and others love Gio Gonzalez, but each has their hurdles to get past.

Depth is one of the best compliments we can give a Major League farm system, and the A’s are filled with it. I see three second baseman, three first baseman, a couple catchers, a dozen outfielders and a lot of pitchers that might contribute to the A’s in the next six seasons. But, outside of Anderson, I don’t see any stars.


Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Oakland

From their divisional championship in 2000 through of their last playoff appearance 2006, the Oakland Athletics had the second best regular season winning percentage and run differential in the major leagues, behind only the Yankees. Expanding the scope to include the non-winning seasons of 2007-2009, they still have the third best winning percentage and run differential in the American league for the Decade of the Aughts, behind only New York and Boston. Are the As prepared to return from their exile from contention after three years of mediocrity?

While Oakland’s current team doesn’t feature standouts like its excellent teams of the early 00s (although Zombie Eric Chavez lingers on as perhaps the highest paid backup 1B/3B in baseball history), like the 2006 team, the team has an even distribution of average and above-average starters. The only projected weak spot around the diamond is at shortstop, but even there, neither Cliff Pennington nor Adam Rosales is a replacement level scrub. The longstanding 3B problem (due to Chavez’s injuries) has been resolved for the moment with Kevin Kouzmanoff, who isn’t anything special with the bat or glove, but is a league average player or perhaps a bit better. Injuries and age have taken their toll on second baseman Mark Ellis, but his excellent glove makes him valuable. At first base, Daric Barton may have disappointed in the past, but he’s still only 24, the projection systems still like his offense, and he’s a slick fielder. The underrated Kurt Suzuki is a real asset at catcher. Despite Jack Cust’s down year in 2009, both ZiPS and CHONE still have confidence in his ability to produce at the plate, and should he or Barton fail, the As’ #1 prospect, power-hitting 1B/DH Chris Carter, might be ready to step in. Along with the Mariners, the As sport one of the most obvious “three center fielder” outfields in baseball. Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Sweeney would each probably be above-average in center field; despite less-than-intimidating bats, the gloves are good enough that all three project as above-average players. Injuries are a concern with all three, but reserves Gabe Gross (yet another defensive standout) and Travis Buck could start for many teams. Moreover, the As’ #2 prospect, outfielder Michael Taylor, is just about ready for the big leagues.

Although the offense should be better in 2010, the strength of this team still lies (and will need to lie) in run prevention. The fielding should be excellent, but the pitching has to do its part. Free agent signee Ben Sheets is a wild card, given his injury history and (if one puts weight in such things) his Spring Training performance, but even if he isn’t the #2 pitcher the projection systems see, the As aren’t totally reliant on him. 22-year old Brett Anderson is likely their best starter, and Dallas Braden and Justin Duchsherer also projecting as above-average. Relief pitching is a major strength; Brad Ziegler, Andrew Bailey, and Michael Wuertz are all good relievers, and if Joey Devine can come back from his injury, this could be one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The As are far from perfect, but few teams outside of the AL East come close. The As’ starters may not be able to match up with Seattle’s Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee, but their offense is probably a bit better than the Mariners’. They don’t have the offense of the Angels or the Rangers, but they will field better than the Angels and pitch better than the Rangers. The As have a lot of young players, so there is a lot of volatility in their projections — perhaps they’ll only win 70, or perhaps youngsters like Anderson, Carter, and Taylor will carry them to 90 wins. I’m probably higher on the As’ current chances than other FanGraphers, and I’m not saying they’re the best team in the AL West, the most evenly matched division in baseball. But from this pre-season vantage point, it’s a four-team race that the As have a non-trivial chance of winning.


Organizational Rankings: #20 – Cincinnati

The Reds are one of the teams that was really hard to slot on this list. On one hand, I like a lot of the young players in the Reds system. There’s a solid core of home grown players to build around, including a couple of All-Stars in Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. The outfield is as deep as it is talented, and the infield is home to the team’s best current players. There are a lot of things going right in Cincinnati.

However, there are timing issues involved that offer some challenges. The young talent may not quite be ready to overtake the Cardinals in 2010, and by the time they develop, it’s a question about whether some of the veterans will still be effective. Scott Rolen turns 35 in a couple of weeks, and his back is about twice that age. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo both have pricey team options for 2011 that will likely be declined, and Brandon Phillips becomes expensive after the 2010 season.

Will those four still be on the team when Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Aroldis Chapman, and company start to fulfill their potential? Maybe, maybe not. As much as I like the Reds core, I don’t think they’re quite ready to overtake St. Louis for the NL Central yet. They could pull off an upset, but they’re certainly not favorites to end up in the playoffs in 2010.

So, their best days probably lay ahead of them. But Walt Jocketty will have to make some good moves to replace the current crop of veterans with a group of role players that is at least as effective, if not more so. And he’ll have to do it with limited payroll flexibility, as a good chunk of the money they’ll save by ditching Harang and Arroyo will have to be reallocated towards buying out the arb years of Bruce and Votto.

If the Reds can balance their chances of winning in 2010 with the dual goal of finding new pieces to put around their core for 2011 and beyond, they’ll be in great position going forward. But that is easier said than done, and with the Reds fan base itching for a winner, the team will likely have to make some tough decisions this summer. How well Jocketty handles the transition will determine whether this Reds team will win with this core or if they’ll have to wait for a few more pieces to put them over the top.


FanGraphs Audio: Org Reports, Elijah, Larry Jones

Episode Thirteen
In which the panel survives off deception.

Headlines
Organizational Reports: Whys and Wherefores
Elijah Dukes: Released
Chipper Jones and Evaluating Situational Play
… and other cracker jacks!

Featuring
Dave Allen, Heat Mapper
Dave Cameron, Sworn Enemy
Bryan Smith, Prospect Maven

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – Cincinnati

Aroldis Chapman seems an apt exclamation point for the Reds dedication to player development, particularly on the international side. Whether it’s Chapman’s contract or his fastball, the Cuban southpaw is the symbol that Cincinnati’s future lies in the hits and misses of their scouting department. Chapman excluded, the Reds have given only seven two million dollar bonuses in franchise history, and four of them happened in the last two seasons. As Will Leitch says, ‘”The Reds always seems to have one or two studs on the farm … who never end up becoming what dreams had held, but these days they seem likely to break that spell by sheer volume.”

Many of these important pieces could be breaking the spell this season. In fact, you might say Joey Votto bucked the bust trend last year with his 4.5 WAR, but that still wasn’t a full season of work. And it certainly wasn’t paired well with the players more hyped than he: Jay Bruce (1.5 WAR), Johnny Cueto (1.6) and Homer Bailey (1.4). For the Reds to truly succeed in the next four seasons (what’s left of Votto and Cueto’s team control), all four will need to begin big-time full season production in 2010. Without re-hashing why each is still a good bet to succeed, be sure that they are.

One of the reasons the Reds farm system would rank as one of the highest is because just how close to the Majors their top prospects are. Dusty Baker can’t help himself with young players, and it’s been true this spring, where it appears Chapman might break camp with the team, and Baker has called for Mike Leake to not be far behind. With their development this season, the exits of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, and the return of Edinson Volquez, the Reds 2011 rotation might be the Majors most exciting (if volatile).

On the position player side, you just hope that Dusty Baker doesn’t interfere too much with what could be. Drew Stubbs is deserving of a chance to play in the Major Leagues, and while Baker won’t like the strikeout numbers that result, his defensive performance should mask any offensive issues: a league-average season with the bat should still net 3 wins above replacement. I’m not sure who ultimately wins the Chris Dickerson, Wladimir Balentien, Chris Heisey battle in left field, but if it’s any of them, the outfield defense should be excellent. If it’s Yonder Alonso, or even Todd Frazier, both of whom will struggle to find a role other than left field in this organization, I think Stubbs will have to shade over pretty far. With five players for one spot, it’s certainly hard to predict the best offensive plus defensive talent of the bunch.

Since Wayne Krivsky brought Chris Buckley in to manage the scouting department in 2006, the Reds have also stepped up their international scouting. Now, not only are they drafting well, but the team is gambling on talents like Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran. Neither was good last year, but this is a situation when the results can’t effect the process. Given the impossibility of competing with the Cubs and Cardinals on a salary level, these swing for the fence approaches are necessary. They did so with Chapman, and he like he’ll offer some quick return on investment in his first stateside season. Sheer volume stands in the Reds favor, and should leave Cincinnati with a few superstars to get behind soon.