I’m pleased to announce that Dave Cameron will be joining FanGraphs full time. Dave will continue to be the managing editor of FanGraphs and will have his duties expanded to other areas of the business.

Dave has played a pivotal role in the growth of FanGraphs since joining in early 2008. It’s very exciting to be able to bring Dave onboard in a larger capacity where he’ll be able to devote even more of his time to all things baseball, in addition to working on new and exciting FanGraphs projects.

Francisco Rodriguez attracted the media’s attention after the Mets’ 2-1 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday. After his team had taken the lead in the top of the 19th Rodriguez came on to save the game, but failed. Later, he explained that he had been up and throwing during every inning from the eighth through the 18th, resulting in roughly 100 warm-up pitches. This brought much criticism upon manager Jerry Manuel, as it should have. Yet Manuel wasn’t the only manager in the game who might have abused one of his players.

Catchers have a rougher go than most position players. While a third baseman or left fielder might handle a number of plays per game, this does not compare to the catcher, who is involved in every exchange between pitcher and batter. Not only that, but he does it from a squatting position. This can be hell on the knees. It’s no wonder, really, why catchers tend to decline at a younger age than other position players. They suffer more physical abuse. This can become a tough situation in an extra-innings game. Despite his abuse of Rodriguez, Manuel showed clemency with his starting catcher, Rod Barajas, for whom he pinch-ran, using pitcher John Maine, in the 13th inning.

The same cannot be said for Cardinals’ skipper Tony LaRussa. His team possesses an advantage at catcher, as Yadier Molina ranks among the league’s finest. Why, then, would LaRussa push that advantage to the point where he might no longer be one? I’m referring to Molina’s 20 defensive innings from Saturday. That cannot be healthy for a catcher. Molina squatted for the equivalent of extra-inning doubleheaders, without the benefit of a rest between games. Yet it’s not just LaRussa’s use of Molina in that single game that causes concern. It extends to his usage all season long.

The Cardinals have now played in 12 games, and Molina has started 11 of them. These run from April 5th through the 18th, 14 days. In other words, from Opening Day through last night Molina has had three days off while squatting for 11. That amounts to 106 total innings behind the plate, more than nine per game. Even worse, if we take it over the 14 days of the season it averages to almost 7.2 innings per day. That seems like quite a lot for any catcher, even one in the prime of his career.

Perhaps the 20-inning stint wouldn’t have been as bad if LaRussa had given Molina a day off surrounding it. Alas, that was not the case. He caught Friday night’s game, spending nine innings behind the plate. Saturday’s affair was a late afternoon game, but a day game after a night game nonetheless. Then, as if the extra couple of hours made a difference, LaRussa ran out Molina again on Sunday night. Does it come as any surprise that he went 0 for 4?

Molina has not had a day off since April 13, an off-day for the team. Since then he has caught 56 innings in five days. The Cardinals travel to Arizona for a three-game set starting this evening. Because Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time, this amounts to a two-timezone jump. Would LaRussa dare start Molina again tonight?

Our look back at the last seven days continues, as we find out what we learned in week two.

Shin-Soo Choo is a decent hitter.

11 for 19, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 1 K, and a stolen base for good measure. Over the last week, Choo has posted a .756 wOBA. He created +8.8 wRAA in 25 plate appearances. Choo flew under the radar a bit last year, despite a 5+ win season, but he should be firmly entrenched in people’s minds now. Grady Sizemore is still the franchise player in Cleveland, but he has a sidekick now. There should be no more doubting whether Shin-Soo Choo is for real.

Perhaps pitchers should pay attention to Joey Votto.

Last year, Votto played 131 games, came to bat 544 times, and stole four bases. Last week, Votto played seven games, came to bat 23 times, and stole four bases. It’s not like he just piled them up against one pitcher who wasn’t paying attention, either. He stole a base on the 12th, the 14th, the 15th, and the 17th. He’s now four for five in thievery this year, despite entering the year with 12 career steals in 18 attempts.

We know Votto can hit. Apparently, he wants to add running to his repertoire. He’s probably fast enough to steal double digit bases (he did collect 24 steals in Double-A back in 2006), but it will be interesting to see how quickly pitchers adjust to his new found desire to run.

Rich Harden is not right.

In two starts last week, Harden lasted just 9 2/3 innings, walked nine guys, hit two more, and threw a wild pitch. Command has never been his forte, but he’s now running a 9.45 BB/9 on the season. His fastball averaged just 90.6 MPH, and only 41 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone.

This version of Harden doesn’t appear to have good enough stuff to challenge hitters, and his already poor command just compounds the problem. The upside with him is obvious (he’s still missing bats), but given how he’s throwing right now, it’s hard to see the Rangers getting a real return on their investment from Harden this year. Meanwhile, Derek Holland is destroying the Pacific Coast League – it might not be a bad idea to make a switch, send Harden out on a rehab assignment, and let him work on building some arm strength. Having him try to get back to full speed in the majors isn’t working very well.

The fourth player from the 2008 Amateur Draft to reach the Major Leagues, Gordon Beckham has taken the early lead as the most successful pick in that draft. Beckham’s success is no surprise to scouts: his amateur pedigree was among the draft’s best. The infielder started every game the Georgia Bulldogs played from 2006 to 2008, including two seasons with runs to the College World Series. I ranked him as the ninth-best prospect from the 2007 Cape Cod League, acknowledging that a move off the shortstop position was likely. After that summer, Beckham truly broke out as a junior, hitting a D1-leading 28 home runs, with a .411/.519/.804 batting line. The rest is history.

In this year’s 2010 draft, one of the most pitcher-heavy in recent memory, there is a player that matches a lot of the points on Beckham’s resume: power hitter, dubious shortstop skills, junior season breakout, started every game in a tough conference over three seasons. And yet, Georgia Tech SS Derek Dietrich is not getting the first round play that Beckham received just two seasons ago. Considering that Dietrich was a high draft pick out of high school (third round Astros pick), where Beckham was not, the discrepancy in prospect status hasn’t always been the case.

Today, I want to investigate if we can see the divide from a statistical perspective, by comparing the performances of each during their three college seasons, as well as the Cape Cod League between their sophomore and junior years. First, we have the freshman campaigns for each player:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     332/410/592   238   26   50    3-4
GB     280/348/490   286   27   58    5-6

Since we established that Dietrich was considered the better high school prospect, it’s not real surprising that he had a better freshman season. The two had equal strikeout rates, so Dietrich’s advantage in average is the case of a better BABIP. Considering the respective conferences, both players were huge assets to their schools. Now, as sophomores:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     311/426/511   225   30   48    5-5
GB     307/399/570   228   31   33    6-12

If there is a divide in these players, it starts in Year Two. In this season, we see that Gordon takes a huge step in decreasing strikeouts, while simultaneously adding power. Dietrich, on the other hand, went from 32 XBH as a freshman to 21 as a sophomore, so there was a case of a little second-year slump. His advantage over Beckham in on-base percentage is due to 16 hits by pitch, and there is no reason to think he won’t continue to get plunked at a high rate. Let’s move onto the Cape Cod League summers:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     211/348/329   152   27   46    4-9
GB     284/370/529   155   17   40    6-7

Where I ranked Beckham highly his season, Keith Law didn’t rank Dietrich as one of the top 30 Cape prospects last summer. The two both had problems striking out against heightened competition with wood bats, but Beckham showed power (19 XBH) where Dietrich’s was more average (11 XBH). The latter was more patient, so he does show one skill over Beckham. Finally, let’s jump to the junior years:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     347/453/708   144   14   19    7-8
GB     411/519/804   275   54   30   17-21

Dietrich’s advantage in patience disappears, although their Isolated Disciplines are equal because the Tech shortstop has 14 HBP through 36 games. Dietrich has cut down on the strikeouts, but not to the degree that Beckham did in his final season with Georgia. Dietrich has already passed his XBH total from last season, and is plugging along at a power pace just below Beckham’s 2008 dominance.

*****

Part of the reason that Dietrich doesn’t get the prospect love that Beckham received in 2008 is due to a perceived difference in athleticism. Where Beckham slowly convinced some scouts he could stick at shortstop, Dietrich never has done the same. Offensively, Dietrich has shown the unfortunate combination of a little less power with a little more strikeouts, but his patience skills are right up there. I think the discrepancy between the two is a little overdone, and that Dietrich deserves more first round consideration than he has received. But despite their similarities in pedigree, these are not the same players, and Dietrich achieving Beckham’s quick success is unlikely.

Game time: 11:05 ET

Starting Pitchers
Rays: Jeff Niemann (R)
2 GS, 8.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 1 HR, 4.94 FIP, 5.34 xFIP.
Projected FIP: 4.13 (FAN) 4.61 (CHONE) 4.67 (ZiPS)
L-R Splits: 0.20 run reverse split in 205.0 IP

Red Sox: John Lackey (R)
2 GS, 12.2 IP, 5 K, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 3.88 FIP, 5.50 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.74 (FAN) 3.90 (ZiPS) 3.96 CHONE 4.18 Marcel
L-R Splits: 0.21 normal split in 1513.2 IP

The Red Sox will be looking to avenge three straight losses to the Rays and four straight overall. They appear to hold the pitching advantage in the last game of this four game set, as John Lackey will take the mound for the Red Sox. Although his 1.42 ERA looks great right now, Lackey has had some issues with control so far, issuing 6 walks against only 5 strikeouts. The ERA is a result of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as we can see from his high xFIP.

Lackey appears to have a completely new approach this year, as he has taken to throwing a cutter – 38% of his pitches have been classified as a cutter so far this year, a pitch with significantly less movement towards a right-handed hitter than his four-seam fastball. His cutter is averaging 89.5 MPH on the year, so far a significant drop off from the 91.6 he averaged on his go-to four-seam fastball last season. He hasn’t completely scrapped the four-seamer – he still uses it over 20% of the time – but the average velocity appears to be lower, sitting at 90.2. It’s very early in the season, but he’s only drawn 6 swinging strikes in 207 pitches – a paltry 2.9%. That number will need to rise for Lackey to be effective as the season continues.

Niemann, similarly, has a low ERA in his first two starts despite poor performance. Niemann hasn’t managed to strike batters out as of yet, and although a 1.08 BB/9 looks nice, he also has hit two batters in only 8.1 innings. His first start ended abruptly, as he was hit on the shoulder by a Miguel Tejada line drive.

Much like with Lackey, the use of a secondary fastball – in this case, a two-seamer – appears to be much more prominent in Niemann’s repertoire this season. Unlike Lackey’s cutter, Niemann’s two-seamer exhibits a sharper break towards a right-handed batter. In his April 13th start against Baltimore, the two-seamer drew 2 swinging strikes in only 27 pitchers, for a swinging strike rate of 7.41%. If his breaking pitches can draw more swinging strikes – only one between 33 changeups, sliders, and curveballs – an increased whiff rate on his fastballs should lead to more strikeouts and, naturally, more success for the second year pitcher.

Neither pitcher exhibits a strong platoon split, and so neither team should be looking to stack the lineup with lefties. Expect the normal lineups for each team today.

The CHONE projected standings originally showed the Red Sox 5 games ahead of the Rays for the AL Wild Card. The FAN projections showed the Rays as within 2 at the start of the season. With the Rays taking the first three games of this series at Fenway Park, the Rays have closed the gap. This is an important game for the AL East and Wild Card races, even though it’s only April, as each team needs all the ground it can get.

If I’ve learned one lesson from my life on the streets, it’s that I’m not so special. It’s not a pleasant revelation, this. Though I’m neither a psychologist, nor do I even play one on TV, I feel totally comfortable stating publicly that “feeling special” is probably pretty high up there on the list of things humans want/need. Even so, there is one distinct benefit of this difficult news, and it’s this: if ever I have an idea, I can bet that someone else has probably had it, too.

So when I thought to myself recently, “Hey, you know what’d be cool? If there were a daily preview thing at FanGraphs” — well, the only reasonable conclusion I was able to draw is that probably about a gabillion other people have thought the same thing*.

*One of these gabillion people actually turns out to be FanGraphs contributor and Unbearable Math Snob Jack Moore, who will — I joke you not — be previewing the Sox/Rays Patriots’ Day game in these electronic pages roughly one hour from now.

With that, I present to you here the first installment of something I think I’ll call “One Night Only.” The idea isn’t necessarily to provide a complete statistical primer for a single game — and it’s definitely not to “predict” the day’s winners or any specific performances or anything like that. Rather, the idea is to identify a game or games or I-don’t-know-what about the day in baseball that might be of interest to the curious fan.

Will this be a daily venture? Oh God, no. As a cardholding layabout, I’m expressly forbidden from putting forth the kind of effort that such an undertaking would require. But I think it’s something that might happen more than once a week. That sounds reasonable for the time being.

Of course, the form could change drastically and without notice. For the time being, however, it’ll probably look a lot like this:

Rockies (Aaron Cook) at Nationals (Craig Stammen), 7:05 ET
While frequently a great pitching matchup is the main draw for a game, such is not the case here. Craig Stammen is an exercise in meh-dom. Aaron Cook is slightly more interesting — not only for his groundballing ways but for the increased whiff rate he’s posted on the early season (9.3% currently versus 5.9% career). Still, Cook is mostly a known quantity, and it’s not the most exciting quantity on the block.

So what’s there to see here?, maybe you’re asking.

Justin Maxwell, is the answer.

Maxwell turns 27 later this year, but between his five-tool profile, decent plate discipline, and injury-plagued minor league career, still has prospect status. He’s listed at 6-5/235 — which, by comparison, is an inch taller and 15 pounds heavier than the very menacing Jason Heyward. (Note: I actually don’t know whether it’s Heyward’s size or his scary robot sunglasses that makes him so frightening. I must research this further.)

In 137 career plate appearances — eight of which have come in the last four or so days — Maxwell has posted a line of .250/.336/.475, good for a 120 wRC+. That’s decent stuff, and not entirely shocking given his minor league numbers.

All in all, between his athleticism and contact issues, Maxwell probably figures to become the poorest man’s Mike Cameron. It’s possible that his defense is comparable. CHONE doesn’t like him this year, pitting him below average, but Baseball America (per this year’s Prospect Handbook) rates him Maxwell as “an above-average defender in center field with excellent range and instincts.”

One problem: there’s no guarantee Maxwell’s gonna play today. He’s not in a strict platoon with Willie Harris in Washington’s wide open right field, but it’s platoon-ish. That’s fair. Maybe Ubaldo Jimenez can just find some way to throw another no-hitter.

During the off-season, Sports Illustrated ran this piece by Albert Chen which compared, contrasted, and prodded the past, present, and future of baseball’s market inefficiencies. The notable quotable – for this piece at least – comes courtesy Tony Blengino, bright mind who works with the Mariners. (I’ll beat you to the snark: No, Blengino cannot hit the baseball well, either.) Here’s what he said:

“Defense might be the new OBP,” says Blengino, “but at some point it’s going to be something else that will be underappreciated. It may be something that has nothing to do with the statistical perspective. A team that figures out how to get 250 innings out of a starter, for example, is going to have a huge advantage. Who knows what the next inefficiency in the marketplace is going to be.”

The 250 innings idea is worth examining.

Since 2000, five pitchers have topped 250 innings: The since forgotten Jon Lieber (2000); Curt Schilling, twice (2001 and 2002); Randy Johnson (2002); Livan Hernandez (2004); and yes, Roy Halladay (2003). Halladay actually tossed 266 innings in 2003, the most of the group. That puts him third on a list since the last strike, with those two guys, Johnson and Schilling, both topping him with their respective 1999 and 1998 seasons.

Halladay started 36 games that season. He would start a combined 40 the next two years. His high since was 246 in 2008, but he’s thrown at least 220 in every season since returning full-time in 2006. SO far, he’s made three starts in the National League, and he’s averaging eight innings per. If he makes 30 more starts, he needs to average roughly 7.5 innings in order to reach 250 innings again.

The Phillies seem committed to start Halladay every fifth day, too, regardless of the number five starter being bumped, which gives him a legitimate chance at racking up more than 33 starts. He’s almost certainly not going to average eight innings per start from here on out. If he makes 35 starts on the season, though, he’ll only need seven innings per outing. That’s a more realistic goal given Halladay’s history.

The National League is a double-edged sword in Halladay’s pursuit. Yeah, the competition level doesn’t approach that of the American League East, but Halladay now has to come to the plate a couple of times as a hitter, making it more likely that he would be pulled in a tight game for a pinch hitter rather than being allowed to continue to work through a deficit. Of course, the quality of the innings matter too, but forget Roy flirting with 25 wins; his race towards 250 should be the one counting stat worth watching.

Episode Twenty
In which the panel is a day late and probably a whole bunch of dollars short.

Headlines
Kansas City: No Way, Jose Guillen
Houston: Hunter Pence, None the Richer
Texas: Parks and Recreation
… and other timely manners!

Featuring
Mike Axisa, New Kid in School
Zach Sanders, Player Hater

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The Mets and Cardinals played 20 innings that saw Tony La Russa use every position player available and a majority of his pitchers as well. He sent ten different players to the mound. While he was pulling relievers after an inning of use, Mets manager Jerry Manuel had four consecutive relievers toss at least two innings, enabling him to keep bodies in reserve.

At least in theory, because it doesn’t really matter if you keep a couple relievers back in case you do end up playing 20 innings when you have those relievers constantly warming up. See, those pitches they throw out in the bullpen actually tax their arms too, even though they don’t show up in the box score. Quoting from Anthony DiComo’s post game report,

Four Mets pitchers threw at least two innings of relief, allowing Manuel to save closer Francisco Rodriguez for a save situation. That did not occur until the 19th… Rodriguez, who had warmed up every inning from the eighth through the 19th, estimated that he threw more than 100 pitches in the bullpen. And he admitted to being somewhat gassed by the time Manuel finally called his name.

Amazing, just plain amazing. Forget the idiocy of holding your supposed best reliever back for a possible future lead for a moment and just soak in the stupidity on the part of whoever had Rodriguez up and throwing for 11 consecutive innings.

On the plus side, I think he’s stretched out now so the Mets can go ahead and get Oliver Perez out of the rotation.

Congratulations to Ubaldo Jimenez, and whatever the most extreme opposite of congratulations is to Tony LaRussa.