Archive for April, 2010

M.A.S.H. Report

Here is a look at the past week comings and goings of players on the DL

Coming back from the DL
Scott Kazmir – 4 IP, 8 hits, 3 BB, 2K, 6 runs vs Yankees
Jeff Suppan – 5 IP, 6 hits, 1 BB, 4K, 4 runs vs Cubs
Reggie Willits – 4 PA, 2BB
Brett Carroll – 9 PA, 3 hits, 1 2B, 1 3B

Going to the DL
Jo-Jo Reyes – Hyper-extended Right Knee – Talking Chop looks to see if the reason behind the move is because of injury or other motives.
Garrett Mock – Neck Nerve Injury – He was optioned to minors and then told the team about the injury.
Jason LaRue – Strained Right Hamstring – Injury caused when running the bases.
Jimmy Rollins – Strained Right Calf – Injury caused warming up before game
Mike Gonzalez – Strain Right Shoulder – Pain happened while warming in the bullpen during a game.
Brian Fuentes – Strained Muscle in Mid Back – Hurt his back pitching on 4/6
Esmailin Caridad – Strain Right Calf – Person to replace him as main Cubs setup man has not yet determined.
Kelly Shoppach – Sprained Right Knee – Injury probably caused by collision at home plate with Curtis Granderson

So far this season 100 players have made the trip to the DL with only 7 coming off so far.

Here are a few players that have some nagging injuries that could be heading to the DL

Ross Ohlendorf – Back Spasms – He had a start skipped on Monday and will not pitch this Saturday. There is a good chance he will go on the DL

Felix Pie – Strained Right Rotor Cuff – Injury occurred back on 4/6. He could be heading to the DL anytime.

Mark Ellis – Strained Hamstring – He has not played since 4/11.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Bruised Left Ribs – Team looking of not putting him on DL, depends on Mike Cameron’s status

Mike Cameron – Passed a kidney stone Friday and looks to be back in a few days


Brett Anderson Gets an Extension

Since debuting last season, Brett Anderson has been one of the game’s top starting pitchers. He’s posted a 3.61 FIP in 187 innings and heck, he’s even leading the American League in ERA right now. Oakland rewarded Anderson today by signing him to a four-year extension with two option years.

Financial terms are unavailable at this point, but honestly, it’s hard to sign a player this early in the service time game for this long without it being a team-friendly contract. Anderson has a bit more leverage than Evan Longoria did when he signed his extension, but not quite as much as Dan Haren did when he signed a four-year, $44.8M extension in 2008, a season after the Athletics traded him, and coincidentally received Anderson in return.

I believe Anderson would qualify for Super Two status, meaning the A’s are in effect buying out four arbitration years while holding the additional right to keeping Anderson off the free agent market for one season. Barring injury, this extension has the potential to look awfully sweet. So, why would Anderson and his agent do this deal, assuming it really is a sweetheart contract?

Well, the most obvious reason is that injuries and attrition do happen. Anderson could tear something tomorrow and never be the same. Wouldn’t matter, he’d still receive the money. There’s also the present and future value of money to consider. Anderson is probably (I’d use hopefully, but someone would accuse me of being a player’s union apologist, I’m sure) getting an immediate raise either this or next season.

Oakland is definitely not without risk in this deal. If it works out, they’re going to look quite smart and be praised for their foresight. If it doesn’t … well, Eric Chavez’s contract already happened. Look at the repercussions from that.


The Dave Duncan Effect

Last week Dave, in his piece on Real Groundball Rates, and Erik, in a piece on Brad Penny’s first start, referenced Dave Duncan’s ability to get his pitchers to generate a great deal of groundball outs. In fact in Dave’s summary of the Cardinal’s organizational ranking he specifically referenced Duncan’s ability to take pitchers off of the scrap heap and turn them into serviceable MLB starters with his pitch to contact philosophy, and cited it as one of the reasons for the Cardinals recent success. With all of that in mind I thought it would be interesting to investigate how the batted ball data supports these positions, and what is the magnitude of the effect.

My methodology was a simplified version of Tom Tango’s WOWY. I found the difference between each pitchers’ ground ball rates for the two years after he joined the Cardinals and the two years before he joined (if available). Then I found the weighted average (weighted by the lesser of the two sets balls in play) of said differences. I limited the sample to just starting pitchers as that is who people reference when discussing Duncan’s “Magic”. With that in mind here’s the sample

Pitcher                With-Without
Brett Tomko             0.8%
Mark Mulder             2.8%
Jeff Suppan             2.4%
Todd Wellemeyer        -10.5%
Kip Wells               2.2%
Jason Marquis           8.7%
Chris Carpenter         11.9%
Kyle Lohse              6.2%
Joel Pineiro            9.1%

The weighted average of the difference works out to ~4.5%, so Duncan’s pitch to contact reputation is backed up by the data. All but Wellemeyer showed improvement in GB%, even Mulder who was a GB pitcher before coming to St. Louis. Clearly this analysis doesn’t speak to overall quality of pitching (for that see this piece by Kincaid) as groundballs and improving groundball rates aren’t the be all end all; however it has been a key component to the Cardinals success in the Tony LaRussa / Dave Duncan era.


Givin’ Kila Ka’aihue Some Love

At 26 years of age, Kila Ka’aihue is wasting away at triple-A. It’s become painfully clear that the Kansas City Royals organization cannot see the value in a player with 20 home run power and 100-walk capability. It’s time to free Kila Ka’aihue.

Right now, there are a couple teams in the Majors that could use an upgrade at the first base position. The Baltimore Orioles club is currently paying Garrett Atkins $4.5 million for 2010 after he posted a negative WAR in ’09 with the Rockies. He currently has a .252 wOBA and has shown almost no power through the first two weeks of ’10.

The club’s top first base prospect is Brandon Snyder, who is probably about a year away from being a regular contributor in the Majors. His strength is his ability to hit for a pretty good average and he grades out as an average-at-best first baseman from an offensive perspective. He swings from the right side and would make a pretty nice platoon partner with Ka’aihue, who is a left-handed batter. Together, the two players would make less than $1 million in 2010 and ’11.

Ka’aihue could also be an immediate upgrade in New York where the Mets club is currently employing a two-man mess at the first base position. Neither Fernando Tatis nor Mike Jacobs have any business playing first base regularly for a big league team. Oh, but they’re just holding the spot warm for Daniel Murphy, who’s currently injured. Coming off of a 0.9 WAR season, though, he might actually be more valuable for the club on the DL than at first base.

The issues with flipping Ka’aihue to the Mets is that the club’s top offensive prospect is also a first baseman. Ike Davis is currently hitting rather well at triple-A and may not be that far away from being MLB ready. One option here, though, is that Davis has experience playing the outfield and he could be shifted there to make room for Ka’aihue, if the big league club were to try and trade Jeff Francoeur while his value is on the upswing. Is this the best option for the Mets? Perhaps not, but it’s something to at least think about considering the team is going no where fast.

Ka’aihue probably fits best with the O’s. The club is second last in the American League in on-base percentage (.309) and is 11th (out of 14 teams) in slugging percentage. Those just happen to be the two areas that Ka’aihue excels in. He slugged 37 homers between double-A and triple-A in ’08 and followed that up with 17 at triple-A in ’09. He’s walked 100+ times in each of the past two seasons and had a walk rate of 18.4% in ’09. His BB/K rate was an impressive 1.20.

Ka’aihue is not without his warts. He’ll likely provide a .240-.260 average in the Majors and he’s definitely not the most athletic player. At 26, he’s no spring chicken and he possesses “old player skills, ” which means he could fade out quickly if you believe in the concept. Even so, he has the potential to be a high-reward, low-risk option for the O’s (or Mets) and it shouldn’t cost too much to pry him away from the Royals organization.


David Huff Knows His Opponents

Before the season started few people believed that the Indians stood any real chance of contending. Over the past few seasons they had traded away many of their top players, most notably Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez, both of whom would have been under contract with the team for 2010. The have a few bright spots, but they’re mostly a team in transition. While they haven’t changed many peoples’ minds with a 3-6 start, they have seen some notable performances.

David Huff ran into plenty of problems during his first tour of the majors in 2009. Though expectations weren’t too high for him — Baseball America pegged his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter — he failed to deliver. As projected his strikeout rate ranked in the bottom third of the league, and while his walk rate was generally good, at 2.9 per nine innings, it wasn’t quite at the level he attained in the minors. His greatest strength is his control, so it’s no wonder that when it wasn’t at its best he got hit around a bit.

As Marc noted in his review of the 2009 Indians, Huff did show some positives despite a generally disappointing season. His slider, which he developed into a quality third pitch in 2008, ranked well according to pitch-type linear weights. That pitch, combined with his above-average changeup, would help compensate for his 87-92 mph fastball. With a thin pitching staff it wouldn’t take much for Huff to get another shot in 2010. So far he has used both his changeup and his slider well in his first two starts.

Huff’s first start of the season came against Detroit, which features a lineup heavy with righties. In fact, the only left-handed bat he would face was Johnny Damon. While PitchFX missed a few of his pitches, we still got a good idea of his breakdown. His fastball acted as his primary weapon, as he threw the four-seamer 60 times and the two-seamer another nine times. The two-seamer can be handy because it tends to break away from righties. In terms of secondary pitches he threw 19 changeups and seven sliders. Three of those seven sliders he threw to Damon, while another three went to Miguel Cabrera. Scott Sizemore saw the only other one of the night, which he flied to right.

The results were mostly good for Huff that game, as he allowed just one earned run. The Tigers did score four off him, though, and while three scored on a Jhonny Peralta throwing error, Huff did allow four singles in the inning. The runners advanced only one base on each, though, and with two outs and the bases loaded Huff did induce a grounder. It appeared he had escaped trouble — until the Perlata throw, and Andy Marte’s lack of a scoop, that is.

Last night Huff faced another righty-heavy lineup, though the Rangers do feature a few lefties in David Murphy and Josh Hamilton. This time he used the slider more often, throwing it 21 times while using the change just 15 times. Of those 21 sliders, 14 of them went to Hamilton and Murphy. He used mostly fastball-changeup on the rest of the lineup, all of whom hit right handed in the game. It was clearly an effective use of his repertoire, as he allowed just four hits and walked just one during a 104-pitch complete game.

The only blemish on Huff’s night actually came as a result of his fastball. Again, his fastball has been rated average, at best, and probably below average, by scouts and prospect mavens. Yet he used the pitch exclusively to the first two batters in the fourth. Elvis Andrus singled to left on the fourth fastball he saw, a 92 mph pitch that hit the inside edge. There was something of a pattern in this AB, as Huff went outside-inside-outside-inside. The next hitter, Michael Young, did the damage, as he took a second-pitch fastball, which Huff threw right down the pike, over the right field wall. Feed Young a good fastball and he’ll do that.

Thankfully for Huff, it was his only mistake of the afternoon. In fact, he went back to the fastball just once for the rest of the inning, using his slider and changeup to retire Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero, and Nelson Cruz. He even used sliders in both of his offerings to Guerrero. The game was efficient in general, as the two teams barely cleared the two-hour mark. Joe West would be proud.

Clearly we can’t expect this of Huff every time out. He’s going to get rocked one of these days, and it will probably happen more than once. Cleveland fans have to like what they’ve seen so far. Huff might not be one of their more exciting pitching prospects, but he represents the possibility for a solid No. 3, a reliable arm in the middle of the rotation. If he continues to mix his pitches well and pick his spots with the slider he could go on to post a very good 2010 season.


Masterson’s Quick Start

Do you know who has the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher in baseball through two starts? I would imagine you did not guess Justin Masterson, whose 1.93 xFIP just edges out Roy Halladay for the early lead. But, when you look at his line and see 1.64 BB/9, 11.45 K/9, and a 54.8% GB%, you may realize that he’s put two really good starts together to begin the year.

Guys who can get both groundballs are strikeouts are usually potential front line starters. Masterson can use his sinker to induce a grounder or his slider to put hitters away, and he’s excelled in both areas to start the year. Yet, I’m still concerned about Masterson’s ability to stick in the rotation, and for one simple reason – left-handed hitters.

Masterson throws from a low 3/4 arm slot, as you can see here, making both his fastball and slider brutally tough on right-handed hitters, since it’s being released behind their heads. However, lefties get a good look at that release point, and since Masterson is a two pitch guy, everything he throws them breaks right into their wheelhouse.

This is reflected in the stats. Even in his excellent first two starts of 2010, it’s just come as domination against right-handed hitters.

2010:

Vs RHB: 33 TBF, 6 1B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 14 K
vs LHB: 16 TBF, 4 1B, 3 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

For his career, Masterson has a 3.29 xFIP vs RHBs and a 4.88 xFIP vs LHBs. His sinker still gets lefties to pound the ball into the ground, but he has to nibble around the zone in order to not get hit too hard, so his walk rate goes way up and the strikeout rate goes down. Additionally, he also has demonstrated a huge BABIP platoon split (.336 vs LH, .250 vs RH), which may or may not be real, as we talked about earlier this spring.

While Masterson’s results through two starts have been encouraging, it’s hard to believe anything has really changed. He faced two righty heavy line-ups and blew them away, but we already knew he could do that. He still hasn’t shown any ability to get lefties out regularly, and that will be the key to him remaining in the rotation.

Until he comes up with something to lower his platoon splits, he’s going to profile as a Chad Gaudin/Vicente Padilla type starter. Rather than getting excited about his first two starts, I’d advise Cleveland fans to get excited once they hear that he’s developed a good change-up.


M.A.S.H. Report

Sprain vs. Strain

Baseball players are always going down with a sprain or a strain. The difference between the two is pointed out by Dr.  Benjamin C. Wedro:

“A sprain is an injury to ligaments, while a strain is an injury to muscle or tendon tissue. “

I don’t have an easy way to easily remember which is which, so a little brute memorization is needed.

Minor League Injury Report

Baseball America looks at the injury status of several minor leaguers. The most notable update is the one that shows Desmond Jennings returning to the Rays AAA team sometime in May. When I did an average of 13 different prospect rankings a while back, Jennings came in 9th overall.

Discussion of the A’s and the DL

Athletics Nation looks into why the team is investing in often injured players. Are these injured players a market ineffiency Billy Beane has discovered or just a chance he has to take being a small market team? Looking at some of my past work at Beyond the Boxscore, Oakland actually stands up pretty well to the rest of the league being in the top 10 in least trips and days on the DL from 2002 to 2009.

Jose Guillen and Blood Clots

Jose Guillen spent 20 days in a hospital over the winter getting blood clots removed from legs. This hospitalization happened during the same time Dayton Moore went out and signed Brian Anderson, Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel to major league deals. It seemed like the Royals weren’t planning on having him back for the season, but they are happy he has returned. Tomorrow, Jose is going for a tie of the Royals record of home runs hit in consectcutive games with five.

MLB Teams Drafting Injured Players

In his blog, Andy Seiler, looks at how teams, like the Yankees, are begining to take more chances on injured players in the draft. The amount of data available is minimal right now to see if this strategy works, but as more become available the exact risk/reward will be more known.

Labrum Surgeries

If any pitcher is recommended labrum surgery, I can see why they put it off until they are sure it is the only option. It is pretty close to a career ending injury.


Fred Lewis To Toronto

Late on Thursday, the Toronto Blue Jays agreed to acquire Fred Lewis for a washing machine.

Lewis had reached the end of a minor league rehab start, and as such the Giants needed to either open up a 25-man roster spot for him, place him on waivers, or trade him. The Giants will actually be receiving either cash considerations or a player to be named later.

Lewis is pretty clearly a Major League quality player. In 1,048 plate appearances in the major leagues since 2006, Lewis has recorded a .277/.355/.420 line, showcasing good plate discipline and slightly below average power. His 109 wRC+ suggests an above average player. 2009 was a down year for Lewis, however, as his ISO dropped from .158 to .132. As a result, his wOBA and wRC dropped to .327 and 98 respectively, the first year in which he has been below average in either statistic. The projection systems see him as slightly above average this year, and ZiPS in particular expects a return to 2008 levels.

Defensively, both UZR and +/- are fans of Lewis, despite his poor reputation among Giants fans in Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report. Both systems have Lewis between +9 and +11 over his 326 game career, which would still make him a below average position-neutral defender over 150 games.

Overall, not only does that make Lewis an MLBer, but it makes him nearly an average player. There is no way that Lewis is only the 6th best outfielder on the Giants roster. Aaron Rowand is projected to have a similar or worse year. Nate Schierholtz has similar projections. Andres Torres is 32 and projected to be well below average at the plate by both CHONE and ZiPS – Marcel’s projection is only operating on 181 ML plate appearances since 2007. Eugenio Velez has put up 201 games of replacement level baseball in his career so far, and the projections don’t see improvement in his future – only a data-starved Marcel projects a wRC+ greater than 90.

Still, it’s possible that the Giants know something that isn’t in these stats. Perhaps UZR and +/- are completely wrong on Lewis’s defense. Maybe he’s a clubhouse cancer, or maybe his injury troubles are worse than they seem on the surface. Even if all of those things are true, though, there’s no way the Giants found maximum value for Lewis’s talents. Hitters with a .355 career OBP and a walk rate over 10% don’t just grow on trees, and especially not those still drawing a pre-arbitration salary. Somebody must have at least had a grade B prospect they would have been willing to part with for Lewis, and if not, then there’s no reason to get rid of him when Torres and Velez are still on the team.

For the Blue Jays, this is an immediate upgrade over Jose Bautista, a player projected for a mid-90s wRC+ and poor defense in the corners – a combination that results in roughly replacement level production. The Jays have acquired a player who could potentially become an asset and a contributor for essentially no cost. The risk is minimal, and a potential reward is there. For the Blue Jays, this is a no-brainer, and for the Giants, it’s a head scratcher.


I, Claudia’s: A Thorne in No One’s Side

Say bonjour to another episode of “I, Claudia’s,” America’s first and foremost experiment in baseball reporting and self-congratulation.

Tuesday, April 13
One of my great interests as Baseballing Enthusiast — an interest that I’m sure is largely shared by the wide readership — is the art and science of baseball broadcasting. Just as a great college professor can make almost subject interesting, so too can a great broadcaster greatly enhance the experience of the game upon which he’s commenting.

I’ve already had occasion to sing Bob Uecker’s praises in this space. I’d like now to add to the list of FanGraphs-approved broadcasters.

I had the opportunity to watch MASN’s coverage of tonight’s Tampa Bay/Baltimore game. Their broadcast team — color guy Mike Flanagan and play-by-play man Gary Thorne — is the very picture of competence. Thorne, in particular, distinguished himself, both for his Official Man Voice, and also for his unusual commitment to the faculty of reason.

Here are three comments right from that particular horse’s mouth:

1. “I do not favor public money for stadiums.” (While discussing the stadium situation in Tampa Bay.)

2. “Someone asked me, ‘Is it bush league to attempt a bunt during a no-hitter?’ No. You’ll hear guys on the opposing bench — the guys for the pitching team — hear’em saying ‘Swing the bat!’ You’ll hear’em saying some other things, too. But, no, it’s not.” (While discussing Ricky Romero’s no-hitter, which was in its fifth or sixth inning at the time.)

3. “They have the best run differential in the Majors.” (While discussing the Philadelphia Phillies, their excellence through the first week and half of the season.)

Comment number one represents (a) the only sane view on stadium financing and (b) a stance that I’m guessing very few broadcasters are willing to make publicly, on account of their job security is often tied to ownership, and ownership — for obvious reasons — totally hearts public money. The second statement is also a commendably sane one — and slightly daring, if only because there are a number of Real Baseball Men who feel differently. Finally, the third comment there — one echoed immediately by Flanagan — demonstrates at least a cursory understanding of Pythagorean Wins, a surefire way for one to endear himself to the baseballing nerdbone community.

A very little bit of interweb-ing reveals this unexpected, yet not wholly surprising, information from Thorne’s bio:

Thorne is a 1970 graduate of the University of Maine with a bachelor of science in business. He graduated from the University of Maine School of Law in 1973 and received a doctorate in law in 1976 from the Georgetown University Law Center. He is a former assistant district attorney in Bangor, Maine, and was admitted to the Bar of the United States Supreme Court in March 1977.

Wednesday, April 14
Colby Lewis struck out 10 of the 24 Cleveland Indians he faced. Moreover, he induced 15 swings-and-misses — on about 13% of the pitches he threw, in other words. By comparison, last year’s strikeout leaders, Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum, each had swinging-strike rates of about 11%.

Wanna hear about a PCL game I went to this evening? Well, you’re about to. The scene: a sparsely attended PGE Park in Portland. The players: the Sky Sox of Colorado Springs (Triple-A affiliate of the Rockies) and the Beavers of Portland. This is why I was excited to go: Rockies prospect and right-handed starter Samuel Deduno. No, Deduno’s not a household name, but he possesses some of the requisite skillz to pay the proverbial billz.

If one were to own the most recent edition of Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook, one would almost definitely read that Deduno has a 92-93 mph fastball with sink, as well as a power curveball, a less exciting changeup, and some control problems (to the tune of 5.2 BB/9 for his minor league career). If one were to read FanGraphs regularly, one would’ve noted how Marc Hulet ranked Deduno as the number ten prospect in the Colorado system. Finally, if one were to point his internet browser over to Minor League Splits, he would definitely see that Samuel Deduno has posted a groundball rate of 57.8% in the minors.

Tonight, that trend continued. Despite underwhelming command — three walks to just one strikeout — Deduno managed to induce groundballs on 10 of the 14 balls in play, good for 71.4%. In terms of pure stuff, Deduno was maybe less impressive. He snapped off maybe three or four well-shaped and -located curveballs on the night and, yes, featured that heavy fastball. It deserves to be said, however, that the Portland lineup was also righty-heavy this evening — a distinct advantage for Deduno, who has yet to develop the change.


Should A.J. Pierzynski Be Punished for Lying to an Ump?

UPDATE: Rob Neyer responded to this post.

As he so often does, Rob Neyer asks an interesting question — and then declines to give an answer. On Tuesday, Ricky Romero absolutely dominated the White Sox. He didn’t give up a walk till the fourth, didn’t let the ball out of the infield till the 6th, and he took 12 strikeouts and a no-hitter into the 8th inning. At that point, White Sox catcher and sixth-place hitter A.J. Pierzynski decided to take matters into his own hands, writes Yahoo’s Andy Behrens:

Romero skipped a pitch in the dirt to Pierzynski leading off the eighth inning — not a terrible pitch, mind you, because AJ had been hacking at similar offerings all night. But late in the game with his team trailing 4-0, Pierzynski resisted the urge to swing. When the ball hit the ground near his feet, he began hopping as if an anvil had landed on his toe. But in fact, nothing had landed on his toe. Replays were clear. He had not been hit.

Rob Neyer points out that this isn’t just cute gamesmanship: it’s unethical and ought to be condemned, not praised.

“I don’t want to get into the awesome logistics that would be involved here … but, ethically speaking, isn’t there an argument to be made for punishing Pierzynski?…
It’s cheating, and in some quarters there are rules against such things.”

According to Rule 6.08(b) in the baseball Rulebook, a batter is entitled to first base on an HBP if “He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (1) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (2) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball.” Pierzynski didn’t deserve first base, but the umpire, the on-field arbiter of truth, awarded it to him.

There isn’t much difference between this and a run-of-the-mill blown call. It’s not completely clear that he lied: after all, it’s conceivable that Pierzynski truly believed that he got hit, much as many a hitter will argue till he’s blue in the face that a called third strike was really a ball, or that he was really safe at first. Of course, it’s more likely that he knew the ball missed him, lied to the ump for his own advantage, and the ump wrongly believed him. That certainly wouldn’t be the first time a player (or a manager) has argued his own cause to an ump despite knowing he was wrong — it’s just one of the few times that it has ever actually worked.

Neyer’s right that it would be a logistical nightmare to institute a law prohibiting lying. (A good start might be expanding the use of instant replay, which would make it harder for a player like Pierzynski to lie his way on base.) A big problem is that umpires have fewer in-game modes of punishment at their disposal. In soccer and basketball, players who feign phantom injuries can be assessed personal penalties if they’re caught in a lie. In hockey, there are penalty minutes; in football, penalty yards. In baseball, the only way the umpire could have punished Pierzynski in the moment would be to have thrown him out of the game, which would have been excessive.

Still, I’m sympathetic to his point, especially because Pierzynski’s play is effectively the baseball equivalent of flopping in soccer and basketball: it’s bush league, it’s unsportsmanlike, it delays the game, and it creates a major moral hazard problem, because it incentivizes every other player to lie.

But how do you punish him? The commissioner’s office can’t very well levy a fine for doing something that isn’t prohibited in the rulebook, and public ostracism won’t make much of a difference either: A.J. Pierzynski has made a career of ticking off fanbases and clubhouses alike. As satisfying as it would be to punish a player for lying, it isn’t very practical — after all, it’s impossible to know exactly whether a player is genuinely mistaken or intentionally dissembling.

Ultimately, Neyer’s righteous indignation is understandable, but it’s misguided. Instead of focusing on the player’s motivations, we should aim for greater accuracy: vetting and replacing the worst umpires in baseball, and permitting instant replays to ensure that the right calls are being made.