Next year has arrived in Chicago, and with Rich Harden gone, even more pressure will be on starter Carlos Zambrano to carry a heavy load for the Cubs rotation. His season did not get off to a good start yesterday, as he was lit up for 8 runs in only 1.1 innings, including home runs by Jason Heyward and Brian McCann. For the Cubs to challenge the Cardinals for the Central division title, Zambrano will have to pitch like an ace, as without him, the Cubs are likely a sub-.500 team.

Unfortunately, Zambrano certainly hasn’t been an ace pitcher over the last four years. Since 2006, his xFIP hasn’t been outside the 4.20-4.65 range, and only a stupidly low 5.6% HR/FB rate managed to get his 2009 FIP to 3.61. It’s really quite simple – Zambrano walks too many to be an ace at this point. 2008 was the only time in the same four year stretch in which Zambrano managed a walk rate below 4.00 per nine innings.

Somehow, though, Zambrano has managed to post ERA’s under 4.00 for all of the aforementioned years – in large part relying on BABIPs lower than .280. Zambrano has pitched for three above average defensive teams (from 2006 to 2008). Last season, the Cubs fell to a below average team UZR, and Zambrano’s BABIP skyrocketed to .308. Although that is by no means conclusive, it is possible that solid fielding behind him is in part responsible for Zambrano constantly outperforming his FIP. If that has disappeared this year, Zambrano could be in trouble.

There may be some heavy regression in line for Zambrano – both in terms of career BABIP and in terms of home runs allowed – and Monday may only have been the beginning. Zambrano should still be an above average pitcher, but he no longer has the ability to constantly win games by himself that the true aces do. If Zambrano doesn’t have the position players playing great baseball behind him like the Cubs had in 2006 and 2007, the Cubs will be on the outside looking in come September and October.

John Lannan has been something of a study in DIPS over the past two seasons. In 2008, his first full season in the bigs, he struck out under six per nine innings, which didn’t go well with his 3.56 walk rate. Yet his .273 BABIP kept him out of trouble, leaving him with a 3.91 ERA for the season. His FIP, 4.79, and xFIP, 4.28, forecasted a turnaround in 2009. Yet while Lannan posted a far lower strikeout rate and slightly lower walk and home run rates, he actually saw his ERA decrease, to 3.88. His FIP sat at a familiar mark, 4.70, and his xFIP rose to 4.69. Again he benefitted from a BABIP well below league average, .276.

Did Lannan really luck out two years in a row? The numbers make it seem like he did. After all, none of the other Nats pitchers prevented hits on balls in play to a degree even close to Lannan. Also, as Jack noted after last season, Lannan’s defense changed from 2008 to 2009, going from a +9 UZR to a -27 mark. All signs pointed to a change in 2010. But, again, all signs pointed to a regression in 2009 as well and it didn’t happen.

Imagine, then, the reaction after Lannan’s Opening Day start against the Phillies. After a Jimmy Rollins single to lead off the game Lannan worked through the Phillies’ lineup rather efficiently. In the fourth, though, everything broke down. Ryan Howard homered following a Chase Utley walk, which the Phillies followed with three straight singles. Carlos Ruiz sacrificed the runners to second and third, and then Roy Halladay, in just his second at-bat as an NL pitcher, hit a dribbler for an infield single. A walk, sac fly, and single would spell the end of Lannan’s day.

Was his luck finally catching up with him? Lannan struck out none in the game while walking three and allowed six of 16 balls in play (counting the sac flies) to fall for hits, a .375 BABIP. While it’s just one start, it’s certainly not the kind of outing the Nats wanted to see from their de facto ace. The last thing they need is a severe regression from Lannan, in a year that they might actually surprise some people.

Alas, one game doesn’t tell us much. For starters it was against the Phillies, the National League’s best offensive team. Lannan struggled against the Phillies in 2009, allowing 13 earned runs in 22.1 IP, though he did keep his BABIP against them to a nice, low .243. He also had a similar outing on Opening Day 2009, allowing six runs in just three innings to the Marlins. He followed that up with another bad start before he got back to his low BABIP ways.

Chances are, Lannan doesn’t possess some skill that allows him to suppress hits on balls in play. He has done it, but so far as we can tell he won’t be able to maintain those levels in the future. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective pitcher. He’ll have trouble with his low strikeout rate without an excellent walk rate to compensate. But he does keep the ball on the ground, and he does throw a good number of strikes. If he can improve that walk rate while keeping his ground ball rate well over 50 percent he might be able to settle in nicely behind the higher ceiling arms on the Nationals. For now, though, Nats fans just have to hope he can put up one more season of his low-BABIP magic.

The first eight batters of the 2010 season came and went without much fanfare. An impartial observer might even have begun hoping for a baseball game between the Yankees and Red Sox that did not require four hours to complete. That was not to be and the problems began with Jorge Posada in top of the second inning.

With two outs already recorded, Josh Beckett started Posada out with a fastball well down and inside that no self-respecting hitter, or Vladimir Guerrero, would have swung at. Beckett followed with a 95mph fastball over the middle of the plate that Posada fouled back, just missing under the pitch. Posada had the pitch pretty well timed, but could not get his bat elevated in time. Take note, as that would be important about 20 seconds later.

Beckett stayed with the fastball for a third time on the next pitch, this one again landing too far inside but closer to the knees for ball two. It is worth stopping the narrative at this point to digress into some stats. Josh Beckett owns one of the league’s better curve balls. His fastball is good, too, but not as good as the curve. Jorge Posada makes a living off hitting fastballs, averaging almost two runs of offense above what the average hitter would produce for every 100 fastballs that he sees at the plate. On the other hand, Posada has been markedly worse at hitting curve balls, about one run below average per 100 curve balls.

Beckett had drawn Posada’s eyesight inside with his first and third pitches and upward with his second that Posada, remember, was just underneath. He had given Jorge three straight fastballs with which to time his swing. What would be the worst pitch to throw next? A fourth consecutive fastball, this time on the inner half of the plate and a little below the belt was probably it and Posada turned all over it. That Posada was so far in front of Beckett’s pitch tells us that he was sitting fastball and the location was right in his wheelhouse. With the aid of Pesky’s Pole and mediocre pitch sequencing, Posada had 2010’s first hit, first run and first home run.

Last season, the Royals blew three leads in which Zack Greinke would’ve qualified for a win and actually lost each of those affairs. Baseball is back in session, and the Royals wasted little time going to the blackboard. Greinke didn’t pitch his best (which is to say he gave up baserunners), but he still left after six innings and the Royals up by two runs. Trey Hillman then went to the bullpen. Here’s a quick rundown of the hell unleashed thereafter:

In box score format:

Roman Colon 0.0 IP, 2 BF, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 ER
Robinson Tejeda 0.1 IP, 4 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 ER
Juan Cruz 1.1 IP, 6 TBF, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 ER

Before the Royals’ pen could secure an out, they had surrendered the lead. The highlights of the inning being 1) Austin Jackson recording his first Major League hit (a liner over third base) and 2) Johnny Damon sitting on a 2-1 Tejeda fastball, then pulling it into right field to give the Tigers a lead. Miguel Cabrera would later tack on a few more runs, and the rout was on.

It’s one game. It’s opening day. These things are going to happen to every team. Still though, in terms of disheartening results, this ranks pretty high. The worst part might be the predictability of the whole thing. During the FanGraphs’ chat A poll was taken early in the inning asking whether the Royals’ pen would blow it and more than half the conglomerate voted yes.

The bright side is that Greinke won the Cy Young despite missing out on those victories last season, and maybe he can do it again this year. The dark side is he may have to for the sake of Matt Klaasen’s sanity.

As we begin the 2010 season, I’d like to take yet another (brief) look at something from 2009. If you’re here, you probably know that three young American League pitchers took big steps forward last season: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and the 2009 AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke. While all thee had good seasons in 2008, they each had a monster season in 2009. Their individual paths to greatness has been much chronicled here and elsewhere. But while browsing through some player pages recently, I noticed something all three had in common as they moved from 2008-2009: the effectiveness of their fastballs.

Some of my friends who are Tiger fans have said that Verlander had a down season in 2008. I don’t agree, and neither do FanGraphs’ win values, having Verlander’s 2008 in line previous seasons at 3.4 Wins Above Replacement, and his FIP was the second best of his career to that point. 2009 went far beyond that, of course, with Verlander sporting a 2.80 FIP and an 8.2 WAR. That’s a monster season. This is, again, well-documented, and I’m sure that there are pitch f/x experts, scouts, etc. that could give you an account of what he did differently. Numerous stats improved for Verlander, as well. But for now, the one that stands out to me is in Verlander’s pitch type linear weights. With the exception of a +13.3 season in 2007, Verlander’s fastball had been about average prior to 2009. However, in 2009, coming off of a +0.4 season with his fastball in 2008, he put up a +24.3. He threw his fastball a bit more often, but it wasn’t just quantity. While his slider and curveball were less effective than they had been in 2008, per 100 pitches, his fastball linear weights rose to 0.96 from 2008’s 0.02 (his changeup was also more effective).

King Felix’ ascension to his throne had been long-awaited. That’s not to say that his series of ~four win seasons from 2006-2008 weren’t very good for a very young pitcher, but 2009 was a new level — an extremely impressive 6.9 WAR outing. In 2006 and 2007, his fastball was actually below average (according to pitch type linear weights, which is different than a pitch f/x or scouting analysis, I’m not saying his fastball was “bad” during those seasons). In 2008, he began to through his fastball more, and it was +6. In 2009, he threw it almost as much, and to greater effect, +19.0, although all his pitches improved per 100 over 2008.

It was Greinke’s number that started me down this path. Everyone knows about Greinke’s 2009, but he was also the best of these three according to WAR in 2008, with 4.9. 2009 was one of the best seasons by a pitcher in the FanGraphs era, at 9.4. What was surprising to me was that in his excellent 2008 season, his fastball was below average, and this was true of all of his other seasons in the majors other than 2007, much of which he spent in the bullpen. Through 2008, his slider had been his most effective pitch (by linear weights). In 2009, as one might expect from the overall improvement, all of Zack’s pitches improved, including his devastating slider and so-so change, but none more than his fastball. Whereas his fastball was only -3.8 in 2008, in 2009 it was +25.8, and he actually threw it a bit less frequently.

Other pitchers could be discussed here, for exampe, Florida’s Josh Johnson, whose fastball was +4.7 in his 2.0 WAR 2008, and +21.5 in his 5.5 WAR 2009. Of course, Greinke’s 2008 season indicates that some pitchers can have great seasons without their fastball being that effective (by count). Johnson’s teammate Ricky Nolasco improved from 2008 to 2009 despite his fastball linear weights going from +4.7 to -15.5 — his slider was awesome in 2009. Again, scouting and pitch f/x has much more to tell us why and how these things happened. And keep in mind that the linear weights are by count, so pitcher could be changing their sequencing and other things that we can’t see directly from the linear weights.

But I find this interesting nonetheless. Hence, my groundbreaking thought for the day: the fastball is an important pitch.

We’re a week one day away from Opening Day (yes, I know there’s a night game on Sunday, but no one cares about those two teams), and here at FanGraphs, we’ve decided to kick off the season in style. We’re going to host an all day chat session with various FanGraphs and RotoGraphs authors and, if I may say so, a ridiculously awesome panel of guests. Scheduled to attend (all Eastern times):

Will Leitch, New York Magazine – 10am
Dan Szymobrski, Baseball Think Factory – 11am
Jonah Keri, Bloomberg Sports – 12pm
Mitchel Lichtman, Inside The Book – 1pm
Pete Abraham, Boston Globe – 2pm
Tim Marchman, Everywhere – 3pm
Dave Studemund, Hardball Times – 4pm
Sky Kalkman, Beyond The Box Score

Plus, a couple others may show up, depending on scheduling. It’s going to be a day full of baseball and conversation, and there won’t be a better place to discuss opening day than right here on the blog.

The Background: Leake, 22, jumps right to the Majors without playing a single game in the minor leagues (save for six appearances in the Arizona Fall League). He beat out Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman for the final spot in the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation. The club’s first round pick from ’09 (eighth overall) was drafted out of Arizona State University and signed by scout Clark Crist.

Leake was a favorite amongst MLB teams as an advanced college pitcher that should make the Majors quickly. The right-hander did not have the best stuff in the draft but he still produced solid numbers: 1.71 ERA, 6.0 H/9, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9. He also allowed just four home runs in 142.0 innings of work.

The Pre-Game Scouting Report: Leake’s fastball is said to be in the 88-94 mph range and it sits 89-91 mph. It is also said to have natural cutting action and good movement. When he’s on, he should produce a good number of ground-ball outs. As for his secondary stuff, he is said to have a 79-82 mph slider, a solid change-up and a show-me curveball. His control is good, his command is plus. Just 6’0”, he’s athletic, durable, and has good mound presence.

Game: March 20 (Spring Exhibition)
Opponent: San Francisco Giants (Todd Wellemeyer)
Conditions: Afternoon game, sunny, no wind, 66 F

The Notes: In his first inning of work against the Giants (the fourth inning of the game), Leake was flying open with his shoulder while facing the first three batters. He gave up a first-pitch single, recorded an out thanks to a diving grab by center-fielder Chris Burke (yes, that Chris Burke), and recorded the lead runner on an unsuccessful first-pitch sac bunt. Once he fixed his motion, Leake looked better but his fastball was almost exclusively 88-89 mph. The majority of his pitches were fastballs, with two sliders mixed in.

During his second inning on the mound, Leake’s command was off and he varied his arm angles, dropping as far down as sidearm. He also broke out the fading change-up to left-handed batters, but the hitters weren’t biting; the pitches were down and off the plate. He was definitely getting his fastballs up more than a ground-ball pitcher should.

Leake looked tired in his third inning of work and start off the inning by mixing his pitches more than he did in previous at-bats. His stuff lacked movement and he was hanging his curveball. He just missed giving up a three-run homer to back-up catcher Eli Whiteside.

The Conclusion: Leake’s fastball hit 90 mph just once in this three-inning outing. He varied his arm angles to give the hitters different looks but it seemed to throw off his control. The former first rounder’s heater was MLB average-at-best in this game. His secondary stuff wasn’t fooling anyone, for the most part. He recorded three ground-ball outs, one strikeout, and five fly-ball outs. Leake definitely did not look like a former first rounder in this game… and he certainly did not look like a pitcher worthy of skipping the minor leagues all together. It will be interesting to see him pitch when he’s on his game.

Travis Wood (starter): Wood was battling Leake for the fifth spot in the rotation until the final days of the spring. Wood had a breakout year in ’09 after significantly improving his control. He’ll head down to triple-A and should be one of the first starting pitchers recalled by the Reds (along with Aroldis Chapman). Wood was originally a second round pick out of a Arkansas high school in 2005 (signed by Mike Keenan).

In this game, Wood gave up three runs on two homers (Edgar Renteria, Aubrey Huff) in the first inning. The first bomb came on a 91-mph fastball up and over the plate; Wood was behind in the count 2-0. The second jack came two batters later on what appeared to be an 86-mph cutter up – again up and over the plate. He doesn’t have the velo to pitch up in the zone like that and his pitches lacked movement in the first inning. Wood’s command was much better in his second inning and he struck out the first two batters on cutters. It’s clear that he pitches better when he takes a little off of his fastball. His curve is a show-me pitch. Wood also has a good pick-off move and caught Andres Torres in the second inning.

Logan Ondrusek (relief): A surprise addition to the Opening Day roster, the 6’8” Ondrusek took a while to conquer his delivery – as most tall pitchers do – and he spent five seasons in minors after being nabbed out of a small community college in the 13th round of the 2005 draft (signed by scout Brian Wilson). The right-hander flew through high-A and double-A in ’09 before settling in at triple-A. The big reason for his success was a new-found cutter, as well as an improvement in his fastball velocity while working exclusively out of the bullpen (from 88-92 to 92-95 mph).

Against the Giants, Ondrusek mainly used his fastball and cutter. He was pretty much 88-90 mph with the fastball. He was comfortable busting hitters inside and also worked away effectively but he might need to change hitters’ eye levels a bit more often to be successful at the MLB level. In his first inning of work, Ondrusek worked up in the zone, which caused him to get a lot of fly balls. He actually did not record a ground-ball out in this game (four FBs and two Ks).

Welcome to the best day of the year. The 2010 season is upon us, and we’re almost to the point where we can stop speculating and start reacting. Before we move on to writing about the happenings on the field, one last speculative exercise – my 2010 predictions. I have no special ability to see the future, of course, but given the information available today, this is what I would guess.

Playoff Teams, AL: New York-Minnesota-Texas-Boston
Playoff Teams, NL: Philadelphia-St. Louis-Colorado-Los Angeles

WS: Minnesota over Colorado

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Position Player WAR Leader: Alex Rodriguez
NL Position Player WAR Leader: Hanley Ramirez

AL Cy Young: James Shields
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL Pitcher WAR Leader: CC Sabathia
NL Pitcher WAR Leader: Roy Halladay

AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie of the Year: Stephen Strasburg

AL Rookie WAR Leader: Brian Matusz
NL Rookie WAR Leader: Stephen Strasburg

Five Random Guesses About 2010:

1. The Braves will take the Phillies down to the wire in the NL East.

2. The Brewers will make the NL Central far more interesting than most people expect.

3. Omar Minaya will be fired before the season ends.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, and Mark Teixeira will all post positive UZRs and be among the league leaders in defensive value at their respective positions.

5. The first time Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward face each other, time will stand still.

Welcome back, baseball.

Four of the 17 players drafted in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft are now Major League Baseball players (hat tip, John Manuel). Big league executives were unenthusiastic about this year’s talent level, so a lower-than-usual number of teams attempting to keep their draftees was expected. But pessimism isn’t allowed on days like this, so let’s start with the congratulations: John Raynor (Pittsburgh), Carlos Monasterios (Dodgers), Kanekoa Texeira (Mariners) and David Herndon (Phillies).

Obviously, all these guys are underdogs to still be Major Leaguers in September. But the Pirates can certainly afford to gamble on Raynor returning to 2007-2008 levels. The Dodgers and Mariners weren’t going to get tangibly better by rostering their other options rather than Monasterios or Texeira. And I am here today in support of David Herndon, the final pick in the draft that dazzled in Phillies camp by allowing just a pair of runs in 12.2 innings.

Full disclosure: the idea behind my sinker series that ushered in my debut at FanGraphs was born the day Herndon was picked by the Phillies. Herndon was a familiar name, because he was one of my sleeper prospects when Baseball America allowed me to write up the top 20 Pioneer League prospects in 2006. Any prospect analyst can tell you about the irrational affection we hold for our sleepers of yore, so even when his K/9 dipped to 4.8 last season, I hoped he’d get the opportunity to pitch in the Major Leagues.

Or, more accurately, to pitch in front of big league infielders. This season, Herndon will have the opportunity to pitch with an infield of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco. Last year, his usual group of infielders were Mark Trumbo, Ryan Mount, Hainley Statia and Wilberto Ortiz. I bring this up because, back in 2006, Herndon’s signing scout and then-manager Tom Kotchman raved and raved about the movement of Herndon’s sinker. The numbers certainly bear this out, as Minor League Splits has Herndon as a career 60.4 GB% guy in the minor leagues. Given that he’s never going to strike a lot of guys out, those infielders are of supreme importance to his success at any level.

Hopefully the Phillies share the same optimism about Herndon than I do. Hopefully they know the Angels’ reason for converting him to a reliever is because he should never face a left-handed hitter, as neither his fringe slider or non-change up are big league caliber in the slightest. They should know that if Chase Utley has a day off, that Herndon should not enter the game. He’s really the ideal seventh guy in a bullpen: he serves a very niche purpose, but has the chance to do it incredibly well.

My theory in the aforementioned sinker series is that a normal development isn’t necessary for non-projectable sinker-slider pitchers that are better served with better defenses. This hypothesis will face a great test in 2010 if the Phillies keep David Herndon on their roster all season. I’ll be rooting for him.

Opening day is supposed to be just loaded with brilliant pitching matchups. Sometimes they’re not the pitchers duel as advertised, as we saw with last night’s 9-7 Sabathia vs. Beckett matchup, but I wouldn’t bet on a similar result in today’s Zack Greinke–Justin Verlander showdown or even the Josh Johnson–Johan Santana duel to be seen at Citi Field.

For the most part, the opening day games have at least one great pitcher (Roy Halladay vs. John Lannan at Washington), or maybe some young up-and-comers (Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Yovani Gallardo at Milwaukee), or at least a couple of above average pitchers who have had good years (Shaun Marcum vs. Scott Feldman at Texas). One matchup, however, just makes you wonder about how it could possibly happen.

The Dodgers will be taking on the Pirates at PNC park at 1:35 PM Eastern time this afternoon. The probable pitchers as of this morning are Vicente Padilla and Zach Duke, two pitchers with K/BB ratios below 2 and FIPs above 4.00. Combined, CHONE projects these two to be worth only 35 runs above replacement, or just over half of Zack Greinke’s projected value.

What makes this matchup especially egregious is that Padilla and Duke are nowhere near the best pitchers on their respective teams. Padilla’s ability as a pitcher doesn’t approach that of either Chad Billingsley nor Clayton Kershaw, and he’s not better than Hiroki Kuroda, either. Paul Maholm of the Pirates is a proven 3-win pitcher, and he actually projects at a similar level to Kershaw, whereas Duke is projected at the level of Carl Pavano.

Now, there could be very good reasons why each pitcher is starting the game over other, more deserving candidates. All I know is if I had a ticket for this game, I wouldn’t be too happy with either manager.