With the draft days away I decided this would be as good of time as ever to revisit players drafted by a team who they didn’t sign with. Mostly to play the “What if …” game. This series will include active players only and will focus on unsigned players, although a few mentions of players signed then quickly traded or released will be scattered. And no, the intent is not to slam a team for not signing a player or question their process. Obviously not every pick is made with the same intentions in mind, particularly those in the latter rounds.

Baltimore

Best positional player: Michael Young (1994: Round 25, Pick 699) did not sign out of high school and instead attended the University of California, Santa Barbara. Three years later the Toronto Blue Jays would draft him in the fifth round, where he would spend three seasons until being traded to the Texas Rangers for Esteban Loaiza.

Best pitcher: Cliff Lee (1998: Round 20, Pick 609) also did not sign and went to the University of Arkansas. Lee raised his stock enough to be a fourth round selection in 2000 by the Montreal Expos. He would later be traded to the Indians alongside Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Lee Stevens for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.

Honorable mention: Jayson Werth (1997: Round 1, Pick 22) who actually signed with Baltimore. Three and a half years later they traded him to Toronto for John Bale.

Boston

Best positional player: Mark Teixeira (1998: Round 9, Pick 265) this was, of course, before Teixeira went to Georgia Tech and eventually became the best college hitter in the 2001 draft. The two sides weren’t far apart in talks, yet at the end of the day Boston let him walk, only to try and woo him in free agency during the winter of 2008. (History sort of repeated itself when the Red Sox failed to sign Pedro Alvarez years later. Bryan Smith even notes that the international scouting director attempted to give the amateur department his money to sign Alvarez, but ownership disallowed the move.)

Best pitcher: Aaron Harang (1996: Round 22, Pick 661) if Harang plays another three-to-four years, he should surpass Buddy Black as the San Diego State University pitcher with the most innings thrown in the major leagues.

Honorable mention: Pat Burrell (1995: Round 43, Pick 1,194) again, before Burrell went to the University of Miami and before being the top pick.

New York

Best positional player: Casey Blake (1995: Round 45, Pick 1,259) is from Wichita State. That’s about the only interesting factoid about his drafting here.

Best pitcher: Brian Tallet (1997: Round 13, Pick 409) Tallet would later be selected by the Indians in the 2000 draft and in 2006 they would trade him to the Blue Jays for a minor leaguer named Bubbie Buzachero. That is a real name. That person actually exists. (Mark Prior should also get a mention here, he’s just not entirely active.)

Honorable mention: Brad Ausmus (1987: Round 48, Pick 1,152)

Tampa Bay

Best positional player: Jacoby Ellsbury (2002: Round 23, Pick 674) most notable because that is the same year and round that Bubbie Buzachero was drafted.

Best pitcher: David Bush (2001: Round 4, Pick 109)

Honorable mention: Mike Pelfrey (2002: Round 15, Pick 434)

Toronto

Best positional player: Brad Hawpe (1997: Round 46, Pick 1,344) the catch here is that Hawpe was actually drafted as a left-handed pitcher.

Best pitcher: Chad Qualls (1997: Round 52, Pick 1,444)

Honorable mention: Ryan Franklin (1991: Round 25, Pick 666) besides the fact that Franklin went everywhere Pat Gillick went – Toronto, Seattle, and later Philadelphia – the pick number earns him a spot here.

Wikipedia:

Parasitism is a type of symbiotic relationship between organisms of different species where one organism, the parasite, benefits at the expense of the host.

In the context of baseball, the host would be an organization and the parasite would be a player who occupies a roster spot, is owed a large sum of money, and offers nothing in terms of production. Here is my objective definition of a parasitic contract:

– The player is occupying a spot on the 25-man roster (and, as such, the 40-man roster)
– The player is owed at least 5 million dollars.
– The player is projected at or below replacement level.

So, for example, while Barry Zito, Vernon Wells, and Alfonso Soriano all have “albatross” contracts, they don’t fit this definition because they are at least producing some wins above replacement. Kei Igawa doesn’t count despite being owed eight million dollars by the Yankees, as he is not on the 25-man roster.

Here are some examples of parasitic contracts currently in MLB.

Oliver Perez
2010-2011 Salary: $24M. Projected FIP: 5.19

This quote from an unnamed Mets’ player via the New York Post pretty much sums it up:

“At some point you have to cut bait,” he said. “You owe him a lot of money, but for what?”

Perez has been awful this year. His walk rate has remained above 7 per 9 innings and now his K/BB is below 1.00. His 6.08 xFIP echoes his xFIP from last season. His ZiPS (R) projected FIP of 5.19 appears generous, and is just above replacement level for starters, but certainly close enough to be included in this definition. The Mets owe him about 20 million dollars for the rest of this season and for 2011, and there is no sign of Perez regaining his limited productivity of 2008 (+1.3 wins).

Jeff Suppan
2010 Salary: $12.5M. 2011 Buyout: $2M. Projected FIP: 5.07.

Suppan’s 4.84 FIP actually doesn’t look that bad, but he’s compiled it in 12 relief appearances against only two starts with Milwaukee this season. As such, Suppan has been slightly below replacement level this year. Once again, Suppan’s projected FIP is actually above replacement level, but that includes his performance as a reliever as well as time split between starting and relieving. Again, as with Perez, that’s close enough for me to include him in this definition. Brewers GM Doug Melvin has performed all sorts of general managerial gymnastics to keep Suppan on the active roster this season, including 60-day DL shuffling of Mat Gamel and David Riske.

John Grabow
2010-2011 Salary: 7.5M. Projected FIP: 4.53

Grabow has been an absolute bust in the Cubs’ bullpen. He showed some promise after coming over from Pittsburgh last season, posting a 3.24 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 25 innings. However, that masked a problem with fly balls and a 4.90 xFIP. The home runs have come in bunches this season, as Grabow has allowed five in only 20 innings, leading to a 9.45 ERA, 6.57 FIP, and an only slightly better 5.23 xFIP. He hasn’t even been effective against LHBs, walking 7 of the 37 he’s faced. The 4.53 projected FIP puts him as a slightly below replacement level pitcher.

Eric Chavez
2010 Salary: 12M. 2011 Buyout: 3M. Projected wOBA: .313

A .313 wOBA isn’t good, but it can be serviceable at some positions, including 3B, which Chavez used to man with expertise. However, Chavez has only even taken the field for five innings this season. He’s spent a majority of his time at the DH position, where a roughly average performance is needed to be above replacement level. Chavez’s injury problems have completely derailed his career. His line in 123 PAs – his most since 2007 – is a putrid .234/.276/.333 despite a BABIP of .301. Chavez compiled a respectable 32 WAR in his career, but his time as a MLB level player are over.

—
Did I miss any? Let me know in the comments.

Episode Thirty-Two
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If you’ve been following baseball over the last few years, you know that there’s been a pretty significant shift towards valuing defense within the game. The Rays, A’s, Red Sox, Mariners, and Blue Jays, among others, have made a point of putting quality gloves at as many positions as possible in order to keep their opponents from outscoring them.

However, at the same time that a bunch of teams were shifting their rosters towards run prevention, an interesting thing was happening up in Minnesota – the original pitching and defense organization decided to try something else.

For years, the Twins have practiced a very specific brand of baseball. Hit the ball on the ground to take advantage of the turf, run like the wind, bunt like crazy, manufacture runs, throw strikes, and play good defense. They didn’t have a single player hit 30 home runs in a season between 1988 and 2005, which is still one of the most amazing records you’ll ever see. Small ball, pitching, and defense – this was Twins baseball.

The 2010 Twins are not that kind of team, and if there was any doubt left about what the team was emphasizing this year, it was put to rest last night, when the Twins ran out the following line-up.

Denard Span, CF
J.J. Hardy, SS
Joe Mauer, C
Justin Morneau, 1B
Jim Thome, DH
Michael Cuddyer, 2B (!)
Jason Kubel, RF
Delmon Young, LF
Nick Punto, 3B

With regular starting second baseman Orlando Hudson unavailable, Ron Gardenhire’s Plan B was to take his starting right fielder and stick him at second base. He essentially chose the offensive production of Jason Kubel or Delmon Young over a more traditional defensive alignment that would have seen Brandan Harris play third, Punto at second, and Cuddyer in his normal right field spot.

When faced with the choice of offense (Kubel or Young) or defense (Punto at second, Cuddyer in right, and live with Harris at third), Gardy chose offense. It paid off, too, as Cuddyer, Kubel, and Young all slugged home runs and the Twins won their fifth consecutive game, pushing their lead in the A.L. Central to 4 1/2 games.

As much as we have talked up defensive value, the underlying point has always been that the goal is to outscore your opponent, and it doesn’t really matter how you do it. After decades of trying to beat their opponents 1-0, the Twins have finally decided to try putting together a roster of guys who can whack the baseball, and it’s working really well.

It’s just a little humorous that as baseball moves more towards the Twins model, the Twins are simultaneously moving away from it.

I was reading R.J. Anderson’s recent article on Jason Heyward and Twitter when this question struck me. Obviously better players tend to be more popular, but Twitter offers access to a player’s thoughts, the quality of which might be independent of a player’s ability on the field. So there is at least the possibility that the best players might not have the most popular Twitter accounts.

Here I use FAN projected WAR as a measure of ‘how good’ a player is and compare that to his number of Twitter followers. The number of followers is on a log scale to accommodate the huge range in number of followers (under a thousand to over a million). Players with less than 15 fan projections were left out except for Jason Heyward, whom I just could not leave out. For him I used his current 2.1 WAR plus his CHONE projected rest of the season 1.6 WAR. I got the list of MLB players with Twitter accounts here.

First off the clear outlier is Nick Swisher (@NickSwisher). He has over 1.2 million followers, while his teammate CC Sabathia (@CC_Sabathia) is a distance second with just over 50 thousand followers. Ignoring how Swisher got so many followers, there is a slight trend for better players to have more followers — the linear relationship between projected WAR and log(followers) has a p value of 0.07 and an r-squared of 0.08, and on average each additional win results in 1.25 times more followers. This linear relationship between projected WAR and log(followers) is an exponential relationship between projected WAR and actual number of followers

With Swisher removed there is enough room to plot the remaining players identified by their Twitter account names.

Here it looks more like the lower limit of number of followers is determined by a player’s projected WAR and then there is considerable variation above that limit. For example, David Ortiz (@davidortiz), Carlos Delgado (@carlosdelgado21), and C.J. Wilson (@str8edgeracer) are low projected WAR players with lots of followers. Ortiz and Delgado probably because they both have long histories as very good players and Wilson because he has a particularly active and interesting twitter account.

So there is a weak trend towards better players having more followers with considerable variation based on small market/big market, the player’s history, the quality and quantity of his tweets and any number of other things.

With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and with two months of minor league data to analyze, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the National League East.

*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.

The organization hasn’t had a ton of prospects take a huge step forward this season, outside of Brown. The outfielder continues to show improved power, which increases his value significantly. He could be ready for the Majors by mid-2010… there’s just no where to play him. Aumont, back in the starting rotation, has definitely been a disappointment and he’s walked 26 batters in 23.0 May innings. It looks like Gillies, another player obtained in the Cliff Lee trade, had his ’09 numbers skewed by the California League.

I think it’s safe to say that Heyward’s impact at the MLB level has been well documented. He’s not the only impressive player from this list, though, that has seen his value increase dramatically. The club has seen a number of starting pitchers up their games, including Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado, and Minor. Once known for drafting and developing prep pitching, not one of those pitchers was taken out of high school, but that does display the club’s diversity (two players acquired via international free agency, one drafted out of college, one nabbed via trade). Minor, who is second in the minors in strikeouts, may have taken the biggest leap forward, followed by Teheran.

The overall depth on the Top 10 list is not that great, but the Top 4 is pretty impressive… even with Norris taking a couple of trips to the disabled list. Strasburg should be joining Storen and Desmond in the Majors within the next week or two. The club will have to draft really well next week or the 2011 Top 10 list could look pretty sad, as there are not a ton of players taking big steps forward in the system beyond the aforementioned prospects.

The MLB club has already received a pretty hefty impact from Davis and Mejia, even if the club is rubbing Mejia’s value (and future) in the mud. Niese was also having a respectable season before hitting the disabled list. Flores has taken a big leap forward with a strong start to his year and he currently has an .842 OPS while repeating low-A ball. Nieuwenhuis is quietly having a nice season.

Although I don’t completely agree with it, Stanton should be up some time in June, as he’s been tearing the cover off the ball in double-A and currently has 18 homers and 39 walks in 45 games. He also has 47 strikeouts and is just 20 years old. Morrison would probably get a positive grade if it weren’t for all the injuries he’s endured over the last 12 months. He could soon create a log jam at first base if Sanchez continues to hit well in the Majors. Both Tucker (.324 average allowed vs right-handed hitters) and Dominguez (.705 OPS) are having rough – but not completely hopeless – seasons.

Up Next: The AL Central

In a game on May 16, Jorge Posada, who had missed time earlier in the month with a strained calf, fouled a ball off his right foot. It didn’t seem like a big deal. Players foul balls off their feet all the time, and rarely does it result in anything other than some swelling and soreness. The foul, while certainly painful, didn’t appear to be anything out of the ordinary. That Posada caught the rest of the game made most people forget about it. But then Francisco Cervelli started the next game, with Jorge not so much as DHing. It was then that we learned of Jorge’s discomfort after the foul.

Three days after the foul, the Yankees revealed that Posada had a hairline fracture, and that he would miss three to four weeks. His retroactive date was May 17th, meaning he becomes eligible for activation today. On the 19th the possibility of him missing just the minimum seemed remote, if not impossible. Yet there’s a good chance that the Yankees could activate him in the next couple of days. Part of that comes from Posada’s quick recovery. The other stems from the Yankees’ roster construction.

Over the weekend Posada took batting practice and ran sprints on the field, which represent two of the more important tests prior to his return. A normal position player might find himself activated by this point, but Posada, a catcher, might not quite be ready. The Yankees still have no idea if he can squat for a full game, and might want to give him a few more days, and perhaps a rehab game, to help ease him back. But they might not have to. With Cervelli showing that he can handle a heavy workload at catcher, both behind and, so far, at the plate, the Yankees can easy Posada back while getting his bat into the lineup.

Few catchers carry a bat heavy enough to warrant a regular DH role. In fact, only eight players in baseball history have spent at least 15 percent of their playing time at both DH and catcher. We also have some modern examples who, while not accumulating enough time at both catcher and DH, have established themselves as catchers worthy of the DH spot they sometimes occupy.

Brian Downing

Downing broke into the league in 1973, the year the American League introduced the designated hitter rule. He did play one of his 34 games there that year, though he was more of an all-purpose player, manning the outfield corners and catcher positions. By 1975 he was a full-time catcher, though not always a healthy one. The injuries forced him off the position by 1982, at which point he became an outfielder and DH. The move apparently aided his power. He hit .260/.365/.363 in 2,423 PA as a catcher in his prime, and .272/.375/.453 in 3,527 PA as a DH mostly in his waning years.

Carlton Fisk

Fisk picked up the AL Rookie of the Year award the year before the DH rule came into play. The Red Sox took advantage of it only a handful of times in the ensuing years, but in 1979, amid a few injuries, the Sox used Fisk as their DH for 42 games, while starting him behind the plate in just 35. The White Sox then started using him more at DH starting in 1985, though he still only played about a dozen games there per year. Fisk never took well to playing half the game, hitting .236/.291/.388 in 677 PA as a DH. That might also be attributable to lingering injuries. As we’re seeing with Posada, teams can keep a good catcher in the lineup more often by playing him at DH. Unfortunately, with Fisk his production at DH didn’t necessarily justify the playing time.

Mickey Tettleton

Like Downing, Mickey Tettleton benefited greatly from time spent out of the squat and in the DH spot. He hit like most catchers during his first few years in Oakland, which is to say weakly. He did manage a few average years, a plus, but that production didn’t come close to what he did once the Orioles and Tigers started playing him at other positions. DHing was a big part of that, as Tettleton hit .243/.381/.455 in 1,522 career PA. Then again, he was no slouch as a catcher either, hitting .242/.362/.433 in 3,209 PA. He is just one of 19 catchers, who played at least half their careers behind the plate, to boast an OPS of .800 or better. He ranks 13th at .818.

Mike Stanley

Stanley might have been a catcher in name, but in practice he left much to be desired with his receiving skills. While he played more games at catcher, 751, than at any other position, he also played 301 at first base and 323 as a DH. He hit very well as a catcher, .277/.387/.469 in 2,584 career PA. As a DH he fared a bit wrose, .256/.359/.438 in 1,124 career PA. His .827 career OPS ranks just ahead of Tettleton on the all-time catcher list.

Joe Mauer

The Twins do well by playing Joe Mauer at DH instead of giving him full days off. That keeps his potent bat in the lineup. The only year since 2005 in which he didn’t DH more than 13 games came in 2008, when he started 135 games behind the plate. He missed the first month of 2009, and ended up DHing 28 games. That certainly helped his MVP cause, as he hit .330/.406/.482 in those games. He’s back to catching a bit more frequently this year, likely because the Twins have the lefty DH combo of Jason Kubel and Jim Thome. But when Mauer has a nagging injury, he presents a better option than both at DH.

Victor Martinez

Like Stanley, Martinez doesn’t play behind the plate because of his receiving skills. He’s there for his bat, and it has been quite a potent bat during his nine-year career. In fact, because he doesn’t profile as an everyday catcher, the Indians frequently used him at first base. He has played just 34 games at DH in his career, and like others hasn’t taken well to it. He holds a .235/.316/.395 line when playing half a game. The Red Sox have played him there for four games this season, and he is 1 for 16.

Posada

Posada came into the league in the late 90s, splitting time with Joe Girardi behind the plate. While Girardi was there for defensive purposes, it was Posada’s bat that enticed the Yankees. Strangely, the Yankees did not often employ him as a DH when Girardi caught. In his career he has played 64 half games, hitting .217/.332/.362 in 247 PA. His season with the most PA as a DH, though, came in 2008, when he battled a shoulder injury for most of the season and posted the worst offensive numbers of his career. Chances are, injuries explain the poor play at DH for many of the above players.

With May finishing up yesterday, I figured we’d convert the What We Learned series into a monthly recap, looking back at the more interesting stories over the last 31 days.

April hitting “breakouts” aren’t real.

We knew this already, but 2010 drove home the point repeatedly, as the first month of the season saw a lot of unexpected players performing extremely well, only to come crashing back to earth in May. Examples ahoy:

Kelly Johnson: .479 wOBA in April, .347 wOBA in May
Jose Guillen: .402 wOBA in April, .305 wOBA in May
Austin Kearns: .465 wOBA in April, .307 wOBA in May
Vernon Wells: .469 wOBA in April, .353 wOBA in May
Alex Gonzalez: .404 wOBA in April, .305 wOBA in May

These guys were heros in April, but their track records didn’t support that kind of performance, and sure enough, all of them got eaten alive by the regression monster. Even bad players can play well for a month – in general, it doesn’t mean anything.

April pitching “breakouts” might be real.

On the other hand, some pitchers showed some surprising early promise in April, and in many cases, they’ve kept pitching well as the season has rolled along. Again, examples:

Ricky Romero: 3.52 xFIP in April, 2.82 xFIP in May
Jaime Garcia: 3.70 xFIP in April, 3.76 xFIP in May
Carlos Silva: 4.12 xFIP in April, 3.59 xFIP in May
Doug Fister: 4.19 xFIP in April, 4.25 xFIP in May

As we saw with Cliff Lee a few years ago, there are times when a pitcher takes a huge step forward, and that becomes readily apparent at the beginning of the season. I wouldn’t bet on any of these guys winning their respective Cy Young awards, but for a guy like Romero, who is showing off a dramatically better set of skills than he had last year, it is quite likely that he will continue to outperform preseason expectations.

We should just stop writing off David Ortiz until he retires.

Ortiz in April: .143/.238/.286, routinely booed, talk of being released
Ortiz in May: .363/.424/.788, best hitter (non-Morneau division) in baseball

Speculating on whether Ortiz is just done has become an annual April tradition, as he’s terrible in the first month of the season three years in a row. He’s a big guy, the type of player who won’t age well, so there’s a built-in expectation that he’s going to just lose it and stop hitting one day. Every year, he starts the year slowly, and every year, people proclaim that this is the year that Ortiz is really finished. And every single year, he proceeds to absolutely pound the baseball afterwards.

Ortiz slumps at times, and of late, those slumps have come in April. He looks really bad when he’s playing poorly. But, if the last three years have taught us anything, it should be that we simply can’t tell when David Ortiz is actually done. Let’s save that talk for when he retires, eh?

The NCAA Tournament Field of 64 was announced yesterday. You can find a copy of the bracket at Baseball America. The regionals are a double-elimination, four-team tournament that is hosted by each of the top 16 teams in the country. Below is half the bracket.

Tempe Regional: #1 Arizona State, #2 San Diego, #3 Hawaii, #4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: The Blair “Brothers” (Seth and Kyle), rhp’s, ASU and USD respectively.

This should be a straight-forward regional for the Sun Devils to get through, but San Diego is no easy opponent in a short series. The team could hypothetically throw star senior A.J. Griffin (107 K’s in 94 IP) in the opener against Hawaii, which would allow them to retain top prospects Kyle Blair (118 K’s in 90 IP) and LHP Sammy Solis (87 in 87) for two games against Arizona State. Still, it takes a tough prospect to shut down ASU’s .340/.436/.533 offense, led by FanGraphs favorite sophomore, Zack MacPhee. I also expect scouts to really like what they see from catcher/closer draft-eligible sophomore Jordan Swagerty, who is a gamer that should move quickly as a reliever in pro ball. The pick: ASU.

Coral Gables Regional: #1 Miami, #2 Texas A&M, #3 Florida Int’l, #4 Dartmouth.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami.

The eyes of SportsCenter will be on this regional, as FIU’s Garrett Wittels looks to continue his 53 game hit streak alive, presumably against likely first-round pick Barret Loux (126 K in 96 IP) and the Aggies. However, as is often true with the regionals, I don’t see Texas A&M moving on unless they risk saving Loux for Game 2, as the rest of the Aggies staff will have trouble with the bats of Grandal and stud sophmore Harold Martinez (19 HR). This is a good-not-great Miami team, but it’s also not the most dangerous regional. The pick: Miami.

Charlottesville Regional: #1 Virginia, #2 Ole Miss, #3 St. John’s, #4 Virginia Commonwealth.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Mississippi.

College pundits agree that Virginia should have been a top-4 overall seed (in the mix for #1 much of the season), but instead Coastal Carolina got the 4, and Virginia got the 5. The Ole Miss Rebels will probably have to throw Pomeranz against the Big East champion St. John’s Red Storm, who enter the tournament playing their best baseball of the season. Virginia, on the other hand, can save dynamic sophomore Danny Hultzen (62 H, 20 BB in 93 IP) for the second game. The most interesting player to scout is probably Virginia’s Jarrett Parker (.330/.418/.583), as scouts have precious little time to decide if he’s a tweener in the outfield or not. The pick: Virginia.

Auburn Regional: #1 Auburn, #2 Clemson, #3 Southern Miss, #4 Jacksonville State.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Either Hunter Morris, 1b, Auburn or Kyle Parker, of, Clemson.

Southern Miss has the pressure of playing for Brett Favre’s future on their shoulders, but also have an experienced team, and probably the regional’s best player: sophomore SS B.A. Vollmuth (.378/.487/.716). I think they can beat a powerful, enigmatic Clemson team in the opener, and will still have experience in the second game against Auburn. The host team has four players with 15 home runs in their lineup, but a pitching staff that has been pieced together all season. This will be an interesting regional, and I think I’m picking a Favre-fueled upset. The pick: Southern Miss.

Austin Regional: #1 Texas, #2 Rice, #3 Louisiana Lafayette, #4 Rider.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Brandon Workman, rhp, Texas.

The Longhorns are simply an Omaha-built machine, and will continue their trek there as long as they don’t pitch to 2011 likely #1 pick Anthony Rendon of Rice (.393/.532/.787). The Rice Owls have the potential to put together an upset, but you never know which Rice team will show up, and their pitching staff is a little too pitch-to-contact for my liking. Texas is just the opposite, as you’ll see coach Augie Garrido ride the arms of four pitchers (Workman, Cole Green, Taylor Jungmann and closer Chance Ruffin), who have combined for 358 strikeouts in 352 innings. The pick: Texas.

Fullerton Regional: #1 Cal State Fullerton, #2 Stanford, #3 New Mexico, #4 Minnesota.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Christian Colon, ss, Fullerton.

A four-seed and a trip to California is a tough assignment for the Big 10 champion Golden Gophers, but they also bring two pretty good draft prospects to try and pull off a Cinderella upset: catcher Mike Kvasnicka (.350/.462/.562) and ace Seth Rosin (5.02 ERA). Kvasnicka will be tested often against a Fullerton squad that runs early and often, swiping 103 bases (in 142 attempts) over 56 games this season. They also have a very good pitching staff that has amassed a 435-135 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 500 innings. I don’t love these middle seeds very much, but New Mexico has a more solid group. Unless they drop the opening game, expect Fullerton to walk. The pick: Fullerton.

Los Angeles Regional: #1 UCLA, #2 LSU, #3 UC Irvine, #4 Kent State.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, LSU.

Getting publicity as the regional of death, because we’re talking about three preseason top 10 teams. UCLA has been the most consistent due to a team 3.02 ERA. They give you no break, as the top three starters — 2010 prospect Rob Rasmussen and 2011 studs Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer — combined for 349 strikeouts in 281.2 innings. The returning champion LSU Tigers have had an injury plagued tumultuous season, but are really dangerous. I eagerly await to see when they pitch Ranaudo, be it the opener against UC Irvine, or if the more consistent Austin Ross gets that nod. Irvine has a veteran team, a trio of aces and an offense that doesn’t strike out. The pick: UC Irvine.

Columbia Regional: #1 South Carolina, #2 Virginia Tech, #3 The Citadel, #4 Bucknell.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Asher Wojciechowski, rhp, Citadel.

If I had to guess where the majority of scouting directors start their weekend, it would be here in Columbia. There is no doubt that The Citadel will start Wojciechowski in their opener, and whichever Hokies pitcher goes — ace Justin Wright, top prospect Jesse Hahn, or enigmatic Matthew Price — it will be a battle of two highly regarded prospects. Throw in Hokies star hitter Austin Wates (.373/.486/.593) and a prospect-laden Gamecocks crew, and there’s a lot to see in South Carolina. The pick: Virginia Tech.

This past December, the Toronto Blue Jays ended a 15-year relationship with Roy Halladay by shipping him to the Phillies for a bounty of young talent including RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud and OF Michael Taylor (who was then swapped to Oakland for 1B Brett Wallace). Predictably, Doc is dominating in the Senior Circuit — in addition to tossing a perfect game against Florida on May 29th, Halladay leads the universe in starting pitcher WAR (3.2) and xFIP (2.93).

But you may be surprised to find that without Halladay, the Jays still boast one of the best starting rotations in the game. Collectively, Toronto’s starters have a 4.06 xFIP. Among AL clubs, that trails only the Twins (4.04) and their Jedi-like ability to avoid ball four.

Once a lukewarm prospect seemingly destined to be known as “not Troy Tulowitzki,” Ricky Romero is pitching like one of the better starters in the bigs. The 25-year-old lefty, taken with the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft, owns a 3.14 xFIP on the season. Only Doc has a better mark among qualified big league starters. He’s punching out over a batter per inning (9.19 K/9), displaying decent control (3.38 BB/9) and burning worms (56.9 GB%). In 255.1 career innings, Romero has a 3.81 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether he can continue to pitch at an elite level, but at worst the Cal State Fullerton product looks like a comfortably above-average starter.

Shaun Marcum, returning from Tommy John surgery, has a 3.77 xFIP. The 28-year-old righty has whiffed 7.4 batters per nine frames, with 2.1 BB/9. A supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft, Brett Cecil is showing promise as well. Cecil was a strong ground ball pitcher in the minors (59.7 GB%, according to Minor League Splits). While that hasn’t carried over to the majors yet (42 GB%), the 23-year-old has a 4.02 xFIP in 2010, with 7.25 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9.

Romero, Marcum and Cecil have a few things in common. They rely heavily upon their secondary stuff, put fewer pitches in the strike zone than the big league average and garner plenty of swings on pitches thrown off the plate:

Romero supplements his 90-91 MPH fastball with a high-80’s cutter, a low-80’s slider, a low 70’s curve and a devastating mid-80’s changeup. Marcum’s 86-87 MPH “heat” is backed up by a mid-80’s cutter, a low-70’s curve and a low-80’s change. Cecil’s 89-90 MPH fastball is enhanced by a mid-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s change. On a per-pitch basis, this trio’s breaking and off-speed stuff has been stellar:

The changeup is a big pitch for all three — Romero (26.4 percent), Marcum (22.4 percent) and Cecil (24.6 percent) pull the string often.

Brandon Morrow shares the above trio’s tendency to put fewer pitches in the zone (45.2 percent) and induce lots of outside swings (31.3 percent), but he has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball about 64 percent of the time. The former Cal star, who went back and forth between roles (starter? reliever?) with the M’s enough to make Hamlet groan, is now firmly a starter. The 25-year-old’s ERA (6.00) looks ghastly, but his xFIP (4.12) is much more palatable. Morrow’s control remains maddening (5.37 BB/9). However, he does have 10.42 K/9 and an 11.5 percent swinging strike rate (8-8.5 percent MLB average). It’s pretty hard to notice the positives when 35 percent of balls put in play are falling for hits, though.

ZiPS projects that the Jays’ top four starters will regress somewhat but continue to perform well for the rest of 2010 — a 4.23 FIP for Romero, 4.01 for Marcum, 4.38 for Cecil and 4.26 for Morrow (though that projection has him splitting time between the rotation and the ‘pen).

Marc Rzepczynski (4.29 preseason ZiPS) could contribute at some point after missing time with a broken finger. Jesse Litsch, another Tommy John survivor, is nearing a return. Dustin McGowan’s shoulder woes have derailed his career, though he’s still trying to work his way back. Halladay trade piece Drabek is performing well at Double-A. Zach Stewart (picked up in last year’s Scott Rolen deal) is scuffling at the same level, but he’s well-regarded, too. Luis Perez is a smallish lefty who gets plenty of grounders. Chad Jenkins and Henderson Alvarez show promise a little further down the minor league ladder.

It will be years before the Halladay deal can be fully evaluated. But happily, the Blue Jays have no shortage of promising young pitching talent within the organization.