Top 10s Revisited: NL East
With clubs set to infuse more talent into their systems next week, and with two months of minor league data to analyze, it’s a great time to take a quick look at how the Top 10 prospects are doing in each system. Today, we’ll take a look at the National League East.
*The Top 10 lists originally appeared in FanGraphs’ Second Opinion fantasy guide published in March.
The organization hasn’t had a ton of prospects take a huge step forward this season, outside of Brown. The outfielder continues to show improved power, which increases his value significantly. He could be ready for the Majors by mid-2010… there’s just no where to play him. Aumont, back in the starting rotation, has definitely been a disappointment and he’s walked 26 batters in 23.0 May innings. It looks like Gillies, another player obtained in the Cliff Lee trade, had his ’09 numbers skewed by the California League.
I think it’s safe to say that Heyward’s impact at the MLB level has been well documented. He’s not the only impressive player from this list, though, that has seen his value increase dramatically. The club has seen a number of starting pitchers up their games, including Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado, and Minor. Once known for drafting and developing prep pitching, not one of those pitchers was taken out of high school, but that does display the club’s diversity (two players acquired via international free agency, one drafted out of college, one nabbed via trade). Minor, who is second in the minors in strikeouts, may have taken the biggest leap forward, followed by Teheran.
The overall depth on the Top 10 list is not that great, but the Top 4 is pretty impressive… even with Norris taking a couple of trips to the disabled list. Strasburg should be joining Storen and Desmond in the Majors within the next week or two. The club will have to draft really well next week or the 2011 Top 10 list could look pretty sad, as there are not a ton of players taking big steps forward in the system beyond the aforementioned prospects.
The MLB club has already received a pretty hefty impact from Davis and Mejia, even if the club is rubbing Mejia’s value (and future) in the mud. Niese was also having a respectable season before hitting the disabled list. Flores has taken a big leap forward with a strong start to his year and he currently has an .842 OPS while repeating low-A ball. Nieuwenhuis is quietly having a nice season.
Although I don’t completely agree with it, Stanton should be up some time in June, as he’s been tearing the cover off the ball in double-A and currently has 18 homers and 39 walks in 45 games. He also has 47 strikeouts and is just 20 years old. Morrison would probably get a positive grade if it weren’t for all the injuries he’s endured over the last 12 months. He could soon create a log jam at first base if Sanchez continues to hit well in the Majors. Both Tucker (.324 average allowed vs right-handed hitters) and Dominguez (.705 OPS) are having rough – but not completely hopeless – seasons.
Up Next: The AL Central
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
I like the list and ratings, but I see Bethancourt as a downward arrow. His bat has been miserable this season. Minor has been simply phenomenal, his strikeouts are such a surprise… but so are his walks.
Teheran, I am convinced, is going to be the one who has the most success between him, Vizcaino, and Delgado.
Bethancourt is 19 going against pitchers often 2-4 years older. And his bat isn’t the best part of his game. He’s got plenty of time to continue to develop as well. As young as he (and much of the Braves’ lower minors) is, expecting big numbers is just not realistic.
He’s not even 19 yet. Won’t turn 19 until September 1 of this year.
you should of found a spot on the Phillies top 10 chart for Jared Cosart.
a 2.13 FIP in 24 innings. 25k’s and 7 walks so far. absolute beaset. Keith Law says that he has top 25 prospect potential by the end of the year.
He’s actually thrown 41 Innings, with a 2.38 FIP, 8 walks to 52 K’s to date.
I’m pretty sure Jarred Cosart & Jonathan Singleton have taken big steps forward for the Phils.
Double swing-and-miss on Cosart and Singleton.
IF you’ll note… in italics right at the top it states that these list are updates from the originals created in FEB/MARCH… neither Cosart nor Singleton were on the Top 10 list at that time… no new players have been added.
Frankly, it’s unreasonable to expect people to read, digest and comprehend 6 full paragraphs worth of information on the internet. The disclaimer at the top should have been flashing and bracketed by dancing hamsters if you really meant it.
As an aside, the Nats’ Michael Burgess probably deserves a 45 degree up arrow (were there such a thing.) Given his history, just hitting for average and getting on base is real progress.
It is actually very obvious that he is updating an old list.
It’s also very obvious that Nate’s comment was tongue in cheek.
But if you really want the dancing hampsters…
I got it was tongue in cheek, but there were a bunch of “why isn’t so and so on the list” comments I just stuck my reply there. Apologies to Nate. And to Philly fans in general. I get it. Y’all wanna see your boys mentioned. I just didn’t see any Mets fans ask “hey, why doesn’t Kyle Allen have an arrow spinning round in circles” or some such.
thats rather ambiguous if thats indeed what you’re trying to say.
to me, it just means that the first round of top 10 publishing was in feb/march. not that you’re only updating those top 10 players at that time.
it would be better to say “a look back at how the players featured in the top 10 lists have been fairing.”
Or maybe it could have said something like “Top 10 prospects revisited.” Oh yeah, it does and it makes perfect sense.
Here’s something unambiguous. Philly fans are a bunch of whiny asshats.
That’s cool and all, but you mention how the org hasn’t had many prospects take a step forward outside of Brown. It would probably be good to note how those two who missed the cut in the offseason, have forced their way into the teams top 5.
These lists by definition will always look questionable in review because of the variable nature of prospect values. I will say, however, that I made the argument for singleton & cosart in the january article comments, so their breakouts isn’t totally unforseen.
“The organization hasn’t had a ton of prospects take a huge step forward this season, outside of Brown.”
I have read and digested as thoroughly as possible for a man of my limited digestive powers.
I certainly understand why you wouldn’t add Cosart and Singleton to the list of top prospects during a mid-season update.
What I don’t understand is why you think the first sentence of your blurb about the organization is accurate given the huge progress Cosart and Singleton have made.
Maybe if you had written, “None of the top 10 prospects outside of Brown has taken a huge step forward this season,” you wouldn’t have confused those of us who struggle with reading, digesting and comprehending on the Interweb.
I really don’t agree with Dominguez being down but should instead be neutral; he’s walking (11%), he’s not striking out (19.9%), he’s hitting for power (.173 ISO). His one problem is BABIP, which sits at .250.
It’s certainly not a GOOD year, but it’s far from being a bad year. If he wasn’t walking, if he was striking out a lot, and/or if he wasn’t hitting for power, I’d be worried. But the only thing that’s holding him back is a statistic that has massive variance to it.
Tucker is also suspended indefinitely after throwing another temper tantrum on the field.
He’s hitting .225, it’s certainly worthy of a down arrow.
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