Twitter giveback week continues. This time it’s Evan Lynch wanting to see a breakdown of what separates the 2006 Detroit Tigers and 2008 Tampa Bay Rays turnaround from a franchise in perpetual downtime: the Pittsburgh Pirates since 1993.

There are so many different ways to attack the following comparison. Here’s the best breakdown I could come up with. In formula form: young talent + asset assessment = talent evaluation. Let’s take a look at the changes for the 2006 Tigers and the 2008  Tampa Bay Rays in particular.
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As you likely have already heard, George Steinbrenner died today of a heart attack at the age of 80. Steinbrenner has been a gigantic figure in the baseball world since his purchase of the New York Yankees in 1973. The Yankees were a truly mediocre franchise for the decade immediately following their 1964 World Series loss to St. Louis. The Yankees finished in the bottom half of the standings every season from 1965 to 1973 except for a 2nd place finish – and no playoffs – in 1970.

Steinbrenner’s Yankees saw quick success, reaching three straight World Series beginning in 1976, his fourth full season as owner. The Yankees would win in both 1977 and 1978, and the impact of free agent acquisitions such as Reggie Jackson were certainly significant.

After losing in the 1981 World Series, however, the Yankees entered another period of relative futility which would last until the strike. The Yankees did win 90+ games three times in this stretch, but also finished below .500 five times and didn’t make the playoffs a single time. Steinbrenner certainly left his mark on this period, constantly meddling with his team, particularly with the managers. After the 1981 season and before the hiring of Buck Showalter in 1992, the Yankees played under nine different managers, including three of Billy Martin’s five separate managing stints with the team.

This brings us to the Yankee dynasty that we all remember. From 1995-2000, the Yankees made the playoffs six times including four division championships and four World Series victories. These teams did include some home-grown talent – Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte, for example, and others brought in through trades, such as Paul O’Neill, Scott Brosius, and Roger Clemens. Still, free agency proved key. The Yankees brought in Joe Girardi, Wade Boggs, David Cone, and David Wells, all key pieces in various seasons in this period.

Steinbrenner’s teams really began to make use of free agency and his massive wealth in the 2000s. In 2001, the Yankees signed Mike Mussina to a big money deal. 2002 saw the addition of Jason Giambi. 2003 saw the import of Hideki Matsui. Although they were through trades, the 2004 additions of Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Brown were shows of the power of Steinbrenner’s impressive financial assets. On top of Rodriguez’s $22 million contract and Brown’s $15 million contract, the Yankees signed Jose Contreras for $8.5 million out of Cuba and added Gary Sheffield for $13 million. The Yankees took the $16 million owed to Randy Johnson in 2005. In 2006, the Yankees had four different players (Mussina, Jeter, Rodriguez, and Giambi) earning at least $19 million, and then they added Bobby Abreu’s $16 million contract. The Yankees added $39 million more in free agency via the Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, and Johnny Damon contracts in 2007. The Yankees stood pat in 2008, waiting for various contracts to come off the books.

This period is generally seen as a failure, due to the fact that the Yankees didn’t win any titles over this period, but lest we forget, these teams were very, very, very good. Every team except for the 2008 team, which suffered from the end of some big contracts but still won 84 games, reached the playoffs. Overall, the Yankees had a .599 winning percentage from 2001-2008, which is about as much as money can buy. The team simply sputtered in the playoffs, something that the media tended to blame on the inability of expensive free agents to play with chemistry.

Even though Steinbrenner retired in 2006, his fingerprints are still on the team. The revenue streams he managed to set up allowed the Yankees to continue to pour money into the free agent market, adding players like CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett for the 2009 World Series championship team, despite the fact that it contained many expensive free agents.

Much of the coverage today has featured Steinbrenner as a hero. That, to me, is going a bit far. He was notoriously hard on his workers. He made illegal campaign contributions to the Nixon campaign. As always, Joe Posnanski puts it best:

Steinbrenner is what you make him. He is the convicted felon who quietly gave millions to charity, the ruthless boss who made sure his childhood heroes and friends stayed on the payroll, the twice-suspended owner who drove the game into a new era, the sore loser who won a lot, the sore winner who lost plenty, the haunted son who longed for the respect of his father, the attention hound who could not tolerate losing the spotlight, the money-throwing blowhard who saved the New York Yankees and sent them into despair and saved them again (in part by staying out of the way), the bully who demanded that his employees answer his every demand and the soft touch who would quietly pick up the phone and help some stranger he read about in the morning paper.

As far as his impact on the game of baseball, however, there can be no debate. George Steinbrenner was a big part of making free agency relevant. His teams changed the way that other large market teams did business, as his Yankees teams of the 2000s forced teams like the Red Sox and Mets to drive their payrolls into a never before thought of territory, be it $100 million or the nearly $170 million on the Red Sox payroll this season. George Steinbrenner created winners in New York, and although he occasionally created losers through his meddling, I doubt that his seven World Series rings and 11 AL pennants particularly care about that. Steinbrenner is certainly the most successful owner in professional sports history, and that is what baseball will remember him as.

Update: Looks like Dave’s Internet isn’t doing so well. While he gets that all sorted out, consider this an open thread on the All-Star Game.

I’m hanging out at Angels Stadium today, and will be liveblogging the game. Join me at 7 eastern as we chat all night long.

Part two of the Twitter giveback. This time Fausto Carmona’s trade value, as requested by Joseph Regan.

The Indians are cozy with trade deadline deals involving top of the rotation starters. In 2008 they traded CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for a package that included Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley. Last year they traded Cliff Lee for Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, and Lou Marson. This year, Jake Westbrook seems like the odds-on favorite to find a new home, but Carmona could be on the move as well.

Carmona is 26 years old and won’t turn 27 until early December. In 2007 he entered his first full season in the major leagues and performed exceptionally; completing 215 innings with a 3.88 xFIP and a groundball rate over 64%. He was worth approximately four wins that season and Indians’ general manager Mark Shapiro quickly jumped on an extension the following April. The deal Carmona inked guaranteed four years and $15 million, but held three additional club options worth $28 million.

In the two subsequent seasons Carmona tallied 246 innings while walking more batters (140) than he struck out (137). He missed more than 50 games between late May and July in 2008 with a hip injury. In 2009 he was optioned to the minors for seven starts. In his return he struck out 43 and walked 29 as opposed to the 36 strikeouts and 41 walks he granted prior to the demotion.

That improved control has rolled over into this season. To date he’s posting his best strikeout-to-walk ratio since that faithful 2007 season and it’s not particularly close. His FIP is an impressive 4.08 and he’s projected to finish in the 4.40-4.45 range. Given his youth, potential upside, and a contract that calls for relative underpayment, it’s easy to see why teams would be interested in adding Carmona.

Getting an exact feel for Carmona’s trade value is hard because his contract is something unlike we’ve seen traded in recent memory. When the Diamondbacks acquired Dan Haren in December 2007 he had three years and roughly $17 million left on his deal. Arizona tore that up eight months later, replacing it with a four year deal worth nearly $45 million and a club option. It’s not a great comparison, because Haren had three consecutive 200+ inning seasons with at least 4 WAR, and Carmona’s prospects are far sketchier. Nevertheless, the full return for Haren: Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, and Greg Smith. It’s safe to say Carmona is unlikely to command that size (in quantity at least) of a return.

Tim Hudson was another Athletic traded in the midst of a great extension. In August of 2000 the A’s inked him to a four year deal worth $9 million with a club option for the 2005 season valued at $6 million. In December 2004 Hudson was moved to Atlanta where he eventually signed a four year $47 million extension with another option tacked on raising the total worth to $59 million. Like Haren, Hudson had a stretch of consistent dominance that Carmona doesn’t come near. From 1999 through 2004 Hudson posted two sub-4 WAR seasons; those were his first two seasons and he combined for 7.5 WAR. The return on Hudson was a comparatively muted package of Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas. That looks awful now, but Meyer as a top 50 prospect according to Baseball America before the 2005 season began and was ranked top 100 the year before.

It doesn’t appear we’ve had a deal with a knockout contract like Carmona’s moved during the season in recent times. Further, when we have had these type of deals, the player usually brings more consistency and less volatility than Carmona. That’s not to say he’s less valuable or anything, it’s just hard to get a feel on whether his troubles are really behind him, or if he can collapse again at any moment.

Back to the question at hand: what is Carmona’s trade value. This is all going to seem like much ado about nothing, but my answer would have to be that it depends entirely on what you represent as Carmona’s true talent level. If the answer is above average with the chance to get better, then hey, those aforementioned packages aren’t too far off with that contract in hand. If it’s an enigma who puts together one good season for every two mediocre seasons, then something of lesser quality is the answer.

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41

#40 – Jered Weaver, SP, Anaheim

Weaver’s breakthrough performance has come at a good time for him, as he heads towards his second year of arbitration eligibility. Already a quality pitcher, he’ll now take a career year built around an improved strikeout rate to the panel when asking for a large raise this winter. And, that is really the drawback that keeps him this low on the list – even as well as he’s pitching, he’s only got two years of club control left, and he’ll make decent money in both 2011 and 2012. However, even factoring in arbitration raises, he’s still going to be a bargain, and he’d be one of the most sought after pitchers in the game if the Angels put him on the market.

#39 – James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay

Like Weaver, Shields has seen a big jump in his strikeout rate this year. However, it hasn’t led to better results, as his home run problems and a high BABIP have undermined what should have been a breakout year. Those should even out sooner than later, and Shields abilities as a solid front of the rotation starter will again shine through. And, of course, since he’s a member of the Rays, he has a team friendly contract that includes three team options after 2011, giving Tampa Bay a cheap, quality pitcher with very little risk attached.

#38 – Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas

Similar to Weaver, Hamilton has had a monstrous breakout season, and he’s going to reap the rewards when he heads back to arbitration this winter. Power hitters command a large premium in the market, and so while Hamilton only has two more years of team control, those are hugely valuable years where he’ll be earning far less than what he would as a free agent. Given that he’s also a quality defensive outfielder with physical tools that have suggested this kind of performance was always possible, and Hamilton would be near the top of every GMs shopping list.

#37 – Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado

There is no player in baseball less likely to be traded than Tulowitzki. Not only is he a great player at a premium position signed to a bargain of a long term contract, but that deal also contains a provision that lets him void the rest of the contract if he’s moved to another team. That makes him far more valuable to the Rockies than to potential suitors, who would only get two years of Tulowitzki’s services at arbitration salaries if they acquired him. However, that he won’t be traded doesn’t mean teams wouldn’t love to have him, and those final two years are extremely valuable, given the dearth of good shortstops in baseball and how much he adds both at the plate and on the field.

#36 – Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta

Don’t let the ERA fool you – Hanson has gotten even better after a strong rookie season in 2009. His velocity is up, giving him better stuff across the board, and it’s translated into fewer walks and more strikeouts this season. Still just 23, Hanson has the ability to dominate with regularity, and it won’t take long before he’s recognized as one of the National League’s premier arms. With five more years of team control after 2010, the Braves ace is going to be providing tremendous value for Atlanta well into the coming decade.

George Steinbrenner, perhaps the most famous owner in sports, passed away today. Since I have no personal anecdotes to share, we’ll simply stick to the numbers.

He was in his 37th year of owning the Yankees, having bought the team in 1973. In that time, his team won the American League pennant 11 times and the World Series seven times. During his reign, the Yankees won it all an average of once per five years.

Their record since Steinbrenner purchased the team: 3,364 wins, 2,583 losses. They won 56.6 percent of the games they played during his ownership.

Seventeen different people have managed the Yankees since 1973. Under Steinbrenner’s watch, the team changed managers 22 times, an average of once every season and a half.

Forbes estimates the Yankees worth in 2010 at $1.6 billion. The next highest estimate was the Red Sox at $870 million.

That will be the legacy Steinbrenner leaves – a lot of winning, a lot of managerial changes, and by far the most valuable franchise in sports. Hard to call it anything other than a success…

Actually, we’re not all special: that’s tonight’s important message.

Nationals at Americans | Tuesday, July 13 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Ubaldo Jimenez (NERD: 8)
127.0 IP, 8.01 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, .248 BABIP, 51.9% GB, 5.4% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP

Americans: David Price (NERD: 8)
115.1 IP, 7.80 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 47.2% GB, 7.8% HR/FB, 3.95 xFIP

A Logic Problem
The All-Star Game, as the urban youth of our country would likely say, “is what it is.” “Is what it is,” as the academics in our country would likely say, represents an instance of tautology. Therefore, it can be said that the All-Star Game is itself tautological.

Discuss.

(Seriously. Do it. Now.)

Service, With or Without a Smile
I think I’m stating the obvious when I say that we at FanGraphs view ourselves — more than baseball fans or ruthless capitalists — we view ourselves as public servants. (Indeed, no other reasonable explanation exists for Jack Moore’s decision to tweet factoids about Joe Morgan’s career, with no prompting whatsoever, at approximately 3am local time.)

To further continue this commitment to our readership, I’ve included the complete rosters for each team at the end of this post — all with links to each respective All-Star’s FanGraphs player card.

An Obligatory Comment in re Colby Lewis
Paddy McMahon of Around the Majors and Knuckle Curve Semi-Drop tweeted the following almost-true truth:

PadmanJones colby lewis is tied with the AL’s ASG starter (price) in WAR. lewis is not on the team. @cistulli mad.

I say “almost true” for this reason: I’m not mad. Rather, it’s probably something more like melancholy that I’m feeling. Colby Lewis, as is widely known, has been responsible for a very many, very intense spiritual experiences. Yet, millions will be robbed tonight of Lewis’s extraordinary mound presence and his darting slutter.

“Fie, for shame,” is the only reasonable response to that.

If I Had My Druthers
• In the midst of a high-leverage situation, American League coach Joe Girardi would come to the mound and signal for a right-handed reliever.
• Simultaneously, Colby Lewis would enter Angel Stadium, from the sky, via parachute, and land on the mound part of the field.
• Also, Lewis would breathe fire. (Note: I recognize that fire-breathing isn’t entirely related to the rest of the fantasy, but if I had my druthers, that’s what would happen.)

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Introduction
#50 – #46

#45 – Miguel Montero, C, Arizona

Somewhat overlooked because he began the season on the DL, Montero has been a monster since returning to the line-up, carrying over last year’s success and then some. At 26, he’s a quality defensive catcher who can hit for power from the left side, and he’s become a more disciplined hitter as well. He now heads into the prime of his career as one of the best all around backstops in the game, and only his two remaining years of club control keep him this low on the list. Given the diminished salaries he’ll command and the value he will produce, however, he’s the kind of player that every team would covet.

#44 – Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore

The best of Baltimore’s young arms, Matusz is one of the game’s best young left-handed starters. Despite pitching in the American League East, he’s more than holding his own with a four pitch repertoire that keeps hitters off balance. He doesn’t light up the radar gun like some other arms on this list, but he has a better idea of how to pitch than most. Don’t judge him on just his major league numbers to date – at 23, there’s far better days ahead. Given that the Orioles have him for five years beyond this one, it would take an overwhelming offer to pry him out of their hands.

#43 – Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay

Considering that he was never going to repeat his 2009 season, this has been about as good a follow-up as you could hope for. The surprising power hasn’t carried over, but everything else is still well above average, and the total package is a high quality player that is as versatile as any in the game. The Rays took a risk in locking him up before he had a chance to repeat his monster 2009 season, but it looks like a sound investment, as they have him signed through 2013 at bargain salaries and then hold team options for both 2014 and 2015.

#42 – Geovany Soto, C, Chicago

Like Montero, Soto is a young, offensive backstop with the ability to stay behind the plate. He’s rebounded from last year’s disappointing sophomore campaign, offering his usual blend of patience and power while inexplicably hitting eighth for the Cubs. Given his ability to drive the ball, he could hit in the middle of the order for most teams, and when you have a 27-year-old cacher who can provide that kind of punch, you have a highly valuable piece. The Cubs will control his rights for three more years, and it shouldn’t take them that long to figure out that he’s better than Koyie Hill.

#41 – Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee

The Brewers ace is a bit of a challenge to rank. On the one hand, he’s one of the better arms in baseball at age 24 and already signed to a long term, below market contract. On the other hand, knee surgery has limited his career to just over 400 innings pitched, and now he’s back on the DL with an oblique injury. With a longer track record of success, teams would be more willing to project him as a future ace, but he’s yet to crack 200 innings in a season and looks unlikely to do so again this year. Gallardo has the upside to rank much higher, but the injuries and backloaded contract would make teams think twice before giving up the farm to get him from Milwaukee.

Although it would be obviously too easy to turn the prospect packages offered to Seattle for Cliff Lee by the Yankees and Rangers into Jesus Montero versus Justin Smoak…we’re going to go for it anyway. When it comes down to it, the tipping point in Jack Z’s mind wasn’t Blake Beavan or David Adams, but rather the blue-chip cream fillings in the middle of the prospect pies. Although the Mariners ended up sending Lee to Arlington, they might have been better off seeing him in pinstripes.

To put things in perspective, I want to assess this breakdown as a competition for future value. Most importantly in baseball is offense. While Justin Smoak certainly has the build/repertoire of a Mark Teixeira, his minor league numbers do not completely back it up. A career .293/.411/.461 hitter in the minors, he certainly was getting on base at an outstanding rate due to a batting eye that is incredibly advanced for a young age. The pop, however,  mostly came in spurts:

2008 (21 years old, A): .304/.355/.518, 62 PA
2009 (22 years old, AA): .328/.449/.481, 227 PA
2009 (22 years old, AAA): .244/.363/.360, 237 PA
2010 (23 years old, AAA): .300/.470/.540, 66 PA

As mentioned, the walk rate is clearly there at a phenomenal level, but the power has not been consistent. In the major leagues this year, as a twenty-three year old turning twenty-four in December, Smoak is hitting .206/.311/.346 in 283 plate appearances, good for just a 77 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. Considering he’s playing in Texas during the summer, you’d expect Smoak to be able to slug better than .346 for the ~43% of a full season he’s played. While his .237 BABIP is sure to find its way higher up, we don’t know what his true talent level BABIP is; Smoak may just be the kind of hitter who consistently has ~.280 BABIPs. If so, he may have solid peaks, but lower lows.

Smoak’s biggest issue is his inability to hit lefties. Scouts who have seen him have commented on his struggles, and the numbers back it up. In the minors, Smoak hit just .215/.304/.331 versus southpaws, good for an abysmal .635 OPS. It has been the same story in the major leagues. Justin has hit just .146/.211/.268 against lefties in 87 plate appearances, costing him -8.3 wRAA and coming out to a terrible .2011 wOBA. Switch-hitting doesn’t mean much if you stink from one side.

Hitting-wise, Jesus Montero is doing well for his age. Although he has not shown the plate discipline Smoak has (although not many minor leaguers have), he has certainly provided enough pop. His minor league line overall is .308/.368/.488, showing a solid eye and good power for such a young player. Here’s what Baseball America’s scouting report said about him:

Montero doesn’t have a classic swing or textbook rhythm, but he’s gifted with hand-eye coordination, keen pitch recognition, a knack for barreling balls and tremendous strength. He can be out front or off balance on a pitch and still crush it. He covers the plate well and makes excellent contact. Montero hasn’t delivered completely on his raw power, but he’s close to projecting as an 80 hitter with 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. One veteran scout called him the best young hitter he has seen in years.

Simply put, Montero has some amazing ability as a hitter. Last year, in Double-A at just ninteen years old, Montero hit .317/.370/.539. Montero out-slugged Smoak by .50 points in Double-A despite being three years younger (!), and he still isn’t even old enough to legally drink yet. His power potential surpasses that of Smoak. In Triple-A this season, Montero has struggled a bit, hitting just .252/.328/.415- still a better OPS than Smoak had at 22 in Triple-A, and mighty impressive for a twenty year old.

Defensively, Smoak is considered an above average first baseman who could win a Gold Glove before his career is over, and TotalZone has been kind to him in the minors, as has UZR in his limited MLB time. But he doesn’t have the Doug Mientkiewicz-type range/hands that would give him a ton of added value in the field when struggling at the dish.

Jesus Montero, on the other hand, has a ton of issues in the field. He is described almost universally as below average behind the plate, and many people see a future move to first base because of his large frame (he gets frequent comparisons to Mike Piazza in that regard). Montere, however, has been making improvements, is just twenty years old, and has thrown out baserunners at a 22% rate in the minors. From MLB.com’s Scouting Report on Montero:

The question with Montero has always been about his defense. He’s big for a catcher and isn’t all that agile. That being said, he’s worked very hard on his craft behind the plate and showed improvement, particularly in throwing out runners, over the course of last season…

…”I want to be a catcher. I love to catch. I like to be a catcher. I like to be in the middle of the game. I mean, it’s my position. I want to play my position.”

When it comes down to it, I think Montero is the better pick due to the possibility he stays at catcher and his massive offensive potential. A bat like that behind the plate is just too valuable a commodity to pass on. Sure, Smoak can hit 30+ homers with good defense in his prime and have peak years of 6+ WAR, but he also may become a slightly better Chris Davis or Casey Kotchman (Kotchman also had a big build with a solid eye but lack of power in the minors) . With Montero, you know the bat is going to play regardless, and if he does end up at catcher, he could be one of the best players in baseball.

If we are to assume the Yankees reported offer – Jesus Montero, David Adams, Zach McAllister – was on the table, it would follow that the Mariners brass ultimately made a not-so-simple calculation, and ended up with this: Justin Smoak > Jesus Montero. The comparison is a significant stance because it runs counter to the majority of offseason opinions. Only ESPN’s Keith Law, among analysts I can find, ranked Smoak over Montero this winter.

And not much has changed since then; Montero has less-than expected numbers at 20 years old in Triple-A, Smoak had less-than expected numbers at 23 years old in Arlington. Ultimately, I can pinpoint three significant reasons that Jack Zduriencik used to reach their Rangers-favored conclusion. Two are reasons that have been (and will be) well-documented elsewhere:

1. The Mariners don’t believe Montero to be a viable option at catcher, even in a diminished capacity. As a corollary, they believe Justin Smoak’s long-lauded defense at first will outpace Montero’s eventual contributions there.
2. The understanding that Safeco Field would be a better fit for the switch-hitting Smoak than the right-handed Montero. This is no revelation: “Know Thy Park” is practically a commandment of front-office work.

Yes, these were surely factors that ultimately supported the M’s decision. But I think there is a third, significant reason that you won’t hear talked about much that led to choosing Smoak over Montero:

The Mariners evaluate potential commodities from the context of potential performance during team-controlled seasons only.

The two players in question have close-enough offensive profiles that I don’t think you could make the case for trading the 20-year-old Montero for the 23-year-old Smoak (in a vacuum). Montero has a decent chance to be in the Major Leagues next season, and thus, should have the longer Major League career. But if Montero does play in the Majors next season — and considering he’s hit .312/.377/.550 since June 7, I submit that it’s likely (especially if he had gone to Seattle) — his team-controlled seasons will come at ages 21-26. The remainder of Smoak’s will come at ages 24-28.

Seattle, I think, is betting that Montero will take a couple years to find his footing in the Major Leagues. I don’t think they would question his potential, just gambling that he’s most likely to reach it after he hits free agency. They look at a guy like Paul Konerko, who before the season, I listed as a nice median outcome for Montero’s career. Konerko, from ages 21-27, hit a combined .279/.342/.470, posting an OPS just 8% above league average. Since then, he’s hit .278/.363/.513, showing more patience and power, with an OPS+ of 125.

The opposite part of that argument is Miguel Cabrera, who is clearly the top-end of what Montero could become. Miggy hit 33 home runs at age 21, and was a cumulative .311/.383/.542 through age 26. At age 20, before being called up, Cabrera had a similar number of plate appearances in Double-A that Montero has had in Triple-A. In the Southern League, Cabrera hit .365/.429/.609, with 31 walks, 29 doubles and 10 home runs. In the International League, Montero is batting .252/.328/.415, with 33 walks, 19 doubles and 7 home runs.

The Mariners are essentially gambling on Montero to be more like Paul Konerko than Miguel Cabrera. And Smoak, meanwhile, will have the ages where most hitters hit their prime at the tail end of his arbitration-eligible seasons.

Montero is a great prospect, but almost every part of his game is still projection. The power is still of the gap variety. He’s yet to play his Major League position. Smoak has struggled in the big leagues, but the skills are there. Defense, patience, power. The Mariners don’t care whether Jesus Montero or Justin Smoak will have a better career, like Baseball America does. They care about which would provide the best value while still coming cheap.