In case you missed it, the Colorado Rockies and the Los Angeles Dodgers played a late night thriller on the west coast. Huroki Kuroda put together a strong start, with seven strikeouts against only one walk, allowing two earned runs in seven innings. His Rockies counterpart, Jason Hammel, worked his way around four walks and four hits to allow only two runs in six innings, striking out four along the way. The bullpens, including freshly-demoted Dodgers setup man, Jonathan Broxton, kept things scoreless until extra innings. Joe Torre, going for the win at home, went with his new closer, Octavio Dotel, to start out the 10th, hoping that a scoreless top half would be enough of an opportunity for the Dodgers.

Dotel was certainly looking to improve on his first attempt to save a game with the Dodgers, where it took all of two batters faced for Dotel to blow the save. In one sense, Dotel did improve. This time, it took four batters, including two walks, a stolen base, and two wild pitches for Dotel to bring in the game winning run for the opposing team.

To be fair, Dotel is usually a serviceable reliever. He has crazy stuff, even at 36, and he’s a mortal lock to strike out a batter per inning – he struck out two of the first three batters he faced last night. His FIP this season, however, is only 4.12 and his ZiPS projection is only around 3.70, mainly because he just has no idea where the ball is going. Dotel has a career walk rate of 4.06 and a projected walk rate of 4.20. He can be prone to outings like last night’s, in which the control is just completely missing, and even though that can bring the strikeouts, it’s also going to bring the walks, and subsequently, the runs.

The Dodgers have two relievers that are capable of striking out just as many batters as Dotel while walking far fewer in their bullpen already. One is, of course, Broxton, who has a far superior ground ball rate to go along with a walk rate about one batter lower per nine innings. The other is Hong-Chih Kuo, who has an 11.1 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9 this season, the best walk rate of the trio. Kuo likely won’t keep the ball inside the park like he has so far this season, but he has comparable strikeout abilities to Dotel to go with superior control and a superior ability to draw ground balls.

Ned Coletti and Joe Torre are living in a world where James McDonald (20 K, 4 BB, 0 HR in 17.2 IP with Pittsburgh) and Andrew Lambo are an acceptable price to add a middling reliever to a team six games out of the playoffs and then turn him into the relief ace over two superior pitchers. The Dodgers are now 12 games out of the NL West lead and 8 games out of the Wild Card. I don’t know what the Dodgers’ endgame was with Octavio Dotel, but there’s no doubt that Coletti and the Los Angeles front office missed big on this one.

In case the reader hasn’t noticed, FanGraphs has a lot more daily content now than it did even last year at this time. Like, a lot more.

It can be overwhelming sometimes — even for those of us who write for the site. Seriously, a guy can leave his computer for a quick nap, wake up an hour or two later, and return to find, like, seven more articles to be read.

To help contend with this bane to our collective nerdom, I’m thinking it might make sense to experiment with a “daily feature” that includes, among other things, a digest of the previous day’s posts.

What else would it include? Well, I don’t entirely know. Probably the One Night Only game previews that critics are calling “a tour-de-force,” for one. Maybe notable tweets? Maybe a graph of the previous day’s most curious game?

One thing it probably won’t be is a link-a-thon to other sites. For two reasons: (1) Rob Neyer, et al., already do that really well, and (2) I can’t read that much about baseball.

In any case, what follows very probably doesn’t represent a final draft, either in terms of content or form. If you have any suggestions as to what you’d like to see, feel free to use the comment section to that end. (Also, if you’re a psychiatrist and have any explanations as to what the frig is up with Pat Misch, please use the comment section for that, too.)

Yesterday at FanGraphs
The Draft That Keeps on Giving
In which computerbot R.J. Anderson looks at the Rangers’ unusually useful 2007 draft.

One Night Only: Yer Darn Tootin’ It’s a Pennant Race
In which yours truly waxes disgusting about the day’s better games.

Expanded Four Factors: Do It Yourself (1.0)
In which Jackie Moore invites you to get all DIY up in this piece.

2010 Draft Review: AL Central
In which prospect maven Bryan Smith talks about boyz to men. Metaphorically speaking.

FanGraphs Chat – 8/18/10
In which our Full-Time Employee wanders among the unwashed.

Derrek Lee to the Braves
In which fellow paesan Pat Andriola considers the relative merits of Derrek Lee and Troy Glaus.

The Reds Are Past the Point of Placating Veterans
In which Joe Pawl is all about Paul Janish.

NPB Prospects You Should Know
In which Patrick Newman quoths the phrase “Fat Ichiro” — but not in the dirty way this time.

2010 Draft Review: NL Central
In which prospect maven Bryan Smith sings a verse very similar to his first.

Jay Bruce and Batted Ball Distance
In which Jeff Zimmerman gets super graphic (with the average distance of Jay Bruce’s batted balls).

The Franchise Player
In which our Full-Time Employee tries to start something with Ryan Zimmerman.

Cubs Bring Back Pitching For Lee
In which Jackie Moore advises you to remember this name: Robinson Lopez.

Another Neglected Red
In which Joe Pawl sings the praises of All-Joyer Chris Heisey.

Carlos Quentin’s Drop Off Continues
In which Matthew Carruth informs you that Quentin’s WAR since 2008 is, like the industry leader of built-in refrigerators, sub-zero.

Notable Tweets
Baseball Division
From jonahkeri: Lance Cormier is the Armando Benitez of Chan Ho Parks.

Open Division
From TheKevinButler: I traded all the way up from a red paper clip into this job.

One Night Only: New York (NL) at Houston | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Metropolitans: Pat Misch (N/A)
150.2 IP, 5.91 K/9, 1.43 BB/9, .299 BABIP, 49.1% GB, 4.6% HR/BIA 3.43 FIP (Triple-A)*

Space Team: Bud Norris (10)
99.2 IP, 9.75 K/9, 3.88 BB/9, .350 BABIP, 43.5% GB, 12.9% HR/FB, 3.75 xFIP

*Minor league GB and HR/BIA numbers courtesy of StatCorner. MLB average is 6.5% HR/BIA.

Read the rest of this entry »

After reading Buster Olney’s column yesterday morning, I had a brief conversation with Jonah Keri about draft slotting and compensation. I half-heartedly threw out the suggestion that perhaps compensation should be altered so that players have to spend a certain amount of time with their last team to qualify for compensation; the thought being that those compensatory matters only exist to help teams replace exiting homegrown talent. I think I threw out a number along the lines of 60% of their plate appearances or innings should come with the team benefiting.

The ramifications of such a move would alter the trade value of those players while also raising the value of the draft picks as the supply dwindled. Curious, I decided to look into just how much time most of the players are spending with the teams being rewarded with draft picks. Beginning with the 2000 draft and ending with the 2010 draft, I went through and noted each player who returned a first round draft pick and/or first round supplemental draft pick. I did not – and this is important to note – include players who returned picks later than that; meaning I focused on Type-A free agents.

From there, I took each of the teams that these players returned draft picks for and figured out the percentage of the player’s career plate appearances or innings pitched (to that point in the player’s career) came with the compensated team. That explanation might be a bit confusing, so let me write through a real life example.

Take the 2007 draft. Carlos Lee brought in two first round picks for the Texas Rangers. Lee had racked up a total of 260 plate appearances with the Rangers the season before out of 5,029 plate appearances for his career. Two sixty divided by 5,029 is roughly 5% of Lee’s total plate appearances through 2006, and yet, the Rangers are the ones who landed those picks.

Now, obviously, it’s not that simple. The Rangers did give up talent in order to secure Lee’s rights and significant talent at that, but the point is: if the compensation rules are designed to replenish teams losing homegrown talent, then examples like this one prove that it doesn’t work. At least, if these examples are in the vast majority, which is what we’ll examine later today.

Shortly after Arizona traded him to the White Sox before the start 2008 season, Carlos Quentin unleashed a monster season on the American League. Since then, Quentin’s performances have been disappointing to put it mildly. I endeavored to find out what’s different between the All-Star worthy Carlos Quentin of 2008 and below replacement level Carlos Quentin since.

Quentin posted a career best .278 batting average on balls in play during 2008. Coupled with a marked drop in his strikeout rate –what had been 24% the previous season fell to 17%– Quentin saw his batting average spike to up .288. Was there anything systemic that aided the rise in BABIP? It’s difficult to determine. Quentin did hit into fewer pop outs once in Chicago, a feat that dramatically helps to improve one’s BABIP, but we’re not talking about an earth shattering deviation and his other batted ball rates remained fairly consistent.

Furthermore, Quentin repeated the lower infield fly rate in 2009 but saw his BABIP sink all the way to.221. Hitting fewer ground balls in 2009 obviously has an effect but a small one, too small to account for the entire change unless you treat 2008 as an outlier.

Further worsening the drop off from 2008 is a decline in walk rate. It peaked in 2008 at 12% but fell to 8% last season and though it has rebounded to 10% in 2010, his strikeouts are up as well, wiping out the positive growth in walks. Quentin’s newfound penchant for offering more at out of zone pitches is partly a culprit as it has risen from 26% in 2008 to 29% in 2009 and now stands at 31%. It is hard to draw walks when you swing at the pitches that you do get outside the strike zone.

Despite that humongous drop in walk rate and batting average, Quentin still maintains an overall above average hitting line with wRC+s of 104 and 121 after his monstrous 154 in 2008. However his defense, which was never much to write about, has collapsed according to UZR. Without a superstar-level offensive output, the total package is quite lacking and Quentin has totaled up -0.3 WAR since that much heralded Chicago debut year.

Earlier this afternoon I explored the case for Paul Janish, the shortstop who is outperforming Orlando Cabrera while the latter sits on the DL. Janish is one of many Reds bench players who has contributed to the team’s success this year. A few commenters in the post point out a couple of other bench players who might provide an upgrade if given more playing time.

The Reds outfield this year has been not so good. The three players with the most PA — Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce, and Drew Stubbs — have wOBAs of .330, .322, and .319. Keeping Bruce and Stubbs in the outfield is understandable. They’re struggling, but they’re also young and considered part of the franchise’s future. Gomes might have the best wOBA among them, but he’s a year-to-year player at this point. In any case, his wOBA is heavily influenced by his torrid May, during which he produced a .445 wOBA. In the three months since he’s hit .304, .297, and .318.

Jim Edmonds was brought in to help, at least in a platoon with Gomes. He hasn’t hit too well since his move, but that’s a measly 15 PA sample. Chances are he’ll help fortify the outfield unit once he hits his stride. The Reds do have another guy who could help: rookie Chris Heisey. A 17th-round pick in 2002, Heisey has never been a highly regarded prospect despite quality minor league production. In 133 PA this season he’s produced a .381 wOBA. As in the case of Janish that’s likely unsustainable and could certainly drop when he’s exposed to regular playing time. But considering the way Gomes and Stubbs have hit there seems little risk in going with Edmonds, Heisey, and Bruce in the outfield on most days.

(And, if Dusty wanted to get cute he could platoon Gomes and Bruce.)

There was a mention in the comments, too, about the team’s catching situation. Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez have nearly identical wOBAs, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Hanigan has picked up a few more PA, especially of late. His season numbers, especially his .380 OBP, make an argument that he should see more time than Hernandez. But Hernandez has the edge in the power department, and his .359 OBP ranks seventh among NL catchers with at least 200 PA. Hanigan has also slumped since returning from a stint on the DL, producing a .258 wOBA in July and a .189 wOBA in August. Hernandez has a .361 wOBA in August, so if Dusty wants to stay with the hot hand he’ll give Hernandez more playing time.

This brings us to another interesting comment, that Dusty doesn’t want to mess with what’s working. There’s some merit to that, in that it sounds like a bad idea to piss off some key clubhouse guys. But I wonder what the on-field effect would be. That is, how would production suffer if a clubhouse presence like Cabrera were offended by Janish playing more often. Or if Gomes were upset over losing his spot to Heisey. If the aforementioned bench players can maintain their production when pressed into more regular duty, it would seem like they would help the team create more runs. At this point, in the middle of a pennant race, it seems like it’s at least worth a shot.

Although word has been out for much of the day that Derrek Lee was on the way to Atlanta in a waiver deal, the deal wasn’t made official until 5:25 Eastern Time, according to Fox Sports’s Ken Rosenthal. We now know, as well, that the Cubs will be sending cash along with Derrek Lee to the Braves, and the Braves will send back three minor league pitchers. The pitchers are right handers Robinson Lopez and Tyrelle Harris as well as left hander Jeffrey Lorick.

The real get here is Lopez. The 19-year-old from the Dominican Republic just missed out on Baseball America‘s organizational top 10 prospects list for Atlanta and ranked exactly 10th in Baseball Prospectus’s pre-season look at the Braves’ system. Lopez has a fastball that reaches as high as 96, an extremely projectable frame, and at 19, that’s a player with a ton of potential. If his secondary pitches don’t develop, he will probably be limited to the bullpen. To date, he has thrown 110 innings as a starter and 33 as a reliever, and, naturally, Lopez has performed much better in the bullpen. However, I would not limit a player with Lopez’ potential to the bullpen at such an early stage in his career.

Lorick and Harris are exclusively relievers, which inherently makes their value much lower than that of Lopez, as does the fact that both were, at least at some point this season, teammates with Lopez at low-A Rome despite being 22 and 23, respectively. That doesn’t mean that Lorick and Harris don’t have some value, though, as both have performed well in the minors in their careers and have shown the potential to make up the back-end of a bullpen. Harris has struck out 84 batters in 68 minor league innings, and Lorick has struck out 85 in 86 innings. Both have a tendency toward ground balls, as well – Lorick in particular. Both are far enough away from the majors that they are anything but a sure thing, but it’s not like these players are throw-ins. They definitely supplement the value brought in with Lopez.

The Cubs are a team with plenty of money and a large fanbase, so they really shouldn’t need to perform salary dump deals with players like Derrek Lee. Lee was making roughly $3.25 million for the rest of the season, a number that likely has little impact on the Cubs’ finances for this year or in the future. Instead of dumping Lee’s salary and getting little in return, the Cubs were aggressive, and threw cash into the deal to help coax some legitimate value out of this deal. Jim Hendry deserves major credit for this trade, as instead of spending his money on an aging first baseman on a fifth place team, he now has three more solid pitching prospects to load into his system. This is just an excellent overall pickup for Chicago.

A few weeks ago, I was asked the popular barstool argument question: if you could start a franchise with just one player – with contracts and dollars being irrelevant – who would it be? I’d guess that a lot of us have had that conversation more than once. It’s a fun topic to talk about.

There are a few names that naturally get mentioned early on. Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and Hanley Ramirez are popular choices because they’re established stars and still in the earlier stages of their careers. Albert Pujols and Chase Utley get nominated for their sheer greatness, even though they’re already past their primes. Miguel Cabrera draws a mention from people who want to build around a premier young hitter. And then you’ll have the guy who likes pitching and brings up Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, or Felix Hernandez.

There’s one guy that never gets brought up, though, who might just be the best answer of them all: Ryan Zimmerman. He shares the spotlight with Adam Dunn and Stephen Strasburg in Washington, but given how good he has become at such a young age, his star should shine the brightest.

Last year, Zimmerman had his breakout season, putting up a +6.6 win season that ranked as the ninth best in baseball. This year, he’s followed it up with a +6.0 win season so far, ranking second. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, only Albert Pujols has posted a better WAR than Zimmerman. He has become a complete all-around player, adding patience and power to an already impressive skillset.

Because he came up at an early age and was just a good hitter rather than a great one out of the gates, his reputation has seemingly not yet caught up with his abilities. However, let’s just throw this out there:

Rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Zimmerman: .289/.366/.526, .388 wOBA
Longoria: .276/.360/.519, .385 wOBA
Ramirez: .307/.384/.509, .393 wOBA

Those are basically an estimate of true talent level, and it sees no discernible differences between the three as hitters. While the other two have significantly better career slash lines, Zimmerman’s performance over his last 1,100 plate appearances has been better than either of the other two.

Defensively, he and Longoria couldn’t be more similar, as they are the two premier young defensive third baseman in the game. Which one you like more is basically a matter of preference – they’re both outstanding. Ramirez does not rate out nearly as well, but of course he’s playing a more difficult position and being compared to better defenders overall. I would still place him a bit behind both of the third baseman in defensive value, but the gap isn’t as large as simply comparing their UZRs would suggest.

Longoria turns 25 in October, while Zimmerman turns 26 a couple of weeks prior to that. Ramirez turns 27 in December. Ramirez has a bit better offensive track record but is the oldest and worst defender of the trio. Longoria is the youngest, but his best season at the plate is not as good as the best season of either of the other two.

It is splitting hairs to pick between them, but gun to my head, I think I’d take Washington’s third baseman. Right now, he’s the perfect blend, combining Ramirez’s offense with Longoria’s defense into one unbelievably good package.

If his teammates were more talented, he’d be have a strong case for the NL MVP right now. Zimmerman has truly become of the game’s great young players, and the guy I’d point to if I could only take one player to begin a franchise.

Yesterday, our own David Golebiewski, looked at how Jay Bruce was progressing at the plate. In the comments, Jason461 noted that Bruce broke his wrist last season on July 12th and the injury could be the cause of some of his problems. Also, Jason461 stated that it takes about a year for a player to return to previous production when recovering from a wrist injury.

I have always followed players with wrist injuries after breaking my own wrist at the ripe old age of 20. Fourteen years later, my wrist is still not right. I, personally, don’t believe players can come back 100% after being off only one month for a broken wrist like Bruce.

I have previously looked at the effects of wrist injuries on individual players using spray charts. I have extended that analysis to Bruce. Here is a look at Bruce’s 2009 (pre-injury) and 2010 spray charts (images courtesy of texasleaguers.com):

2009 pre-injury:

2010:

One noticeable difference is the lack of of deep power in 2010 to all fields compared to 2009.

I decided to make sure my eyes weren’t playing tricks on me and look at the average batted ball distance of all his batted balls (excluding bunts). I used a process I documented previously for determining the batted ball distance. The data is from MLB and marks where the fielder gets the ball, not where it lands. Though this data is not perfect, it is the best I have available to me. Here is a chart of the batted ball data for 2009 and 2010, including the monthly data for 2010:

As it can be seen, Bruce is hitting the ball 6 feet less in 2010, vice in 2009 before the injury. In 2010, the batted ball distance has gone up ~10 feet from the beginning of the season to now. In the month of June, Jay started hitting the ball like he did back in 2009, so the claim of one year recovery time seems to be correct for Jay Bruce..

I am just beginning to look at the effects of injuries on players, but hopefully in the near future I have more information to publish. Please let me know if you have any questions and if there are any other players you want me to examine.

The series continues.

CHICAGO CUBS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Hayden Simpson, Southern Arkansas, rhp, 16th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 2 HS, 3 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Cubs performances should serve as a reminder that using short-season statistics to make too many assumptions is problematic. This is because, in the limited time the draftees have been in the minor leagues, the middle-round picks are succeeding far more than the early rounders. While third-round college catcher Micah Gibbs has been a disaster, hitting .143/.229/.162 in 120 plate appearances, fifth-round outfielder Matthew Szczur was so good in the same league (.397/.439/.521) that he was promoted to full season ball. Where fourth-round JC lefty Hunter Ackerman has struggled in the complex league (2.21 WHIP!), eighth-round JC lefty Cameron Greathouse is getting ground balls (3.82 G/F) and strikeouts (9.0 K/9).

Thoughts: This was an undeniably strange draft by the Cubs, who signed just three players for more than $350,000. Tim Wilken has already thrown the gauntlet down for his first-round pick, comparing Simpson to Roy Oswalt on draft day. While they stuck their necks out with that pick, the other big investments in Reggie Golden and Ben Wells seem prudent. The team had a funny focus on smaller right-handers, perhaps seeing a market inefficiency that no one else did. While I like the team’s other picks (Golden, Szczur) quite a bit, it’s their ballsy strategy that bears paying attention to.

CINCINNATI REDS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Yasmani Grandal, Miami, c, 12th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 6 college, 3 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team went with four college hitters early, and with the exception of Grandal, all have had a lot of time in the minors. Ryan LaMarre has been a little better than average (.353 wOBA) in the Midwest League, which is more than Devin Lohman (.314 wOBA) or Brodie Greene (.304 wOBA) are doing in the Pioneer and Carolina Leagues, respectively. We haven’t seen as much of the pitchers drafted, although former Oregon State ace Tanner Robles has done a nice job (3.85 FIP) in the difficult Pioneer League environment.

Thoughts: Grandal was a favorite of mine in the draft, and his selection adds another catcher to this system. If there is a worry about his game, I think the bat speed is probably more troubling than his arm strength. I didn’t find the three college hitters particularly inspiring, but then again, they weren’t really the next-best players signed: the team gave a half-million to high school outfielder Kyle Waldrop in the 12th round, and almost one million to sixth-round pick Drew Cisco. These guys add some nice depth, and star potential, to the draft behind Grandal.

HOUSTON ASTROS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Delino DeShields Jr, Georgia HS, 2B, 8th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 6/4.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team got its second and third pick, Mike Foltynewicz and Mike Kvasnicka, signed quickly, and both have had some good experience this summer. Foltynewicz has pitched better (4.26 FIP) than his 5.52 ERA indicates, while Kvasnicka has struggled with the bat while juggling three positions in the New York-Penn League. The most encouraging performances have come from second-round pick Vincent Velasquez (3.59 FIP) and fifth-round catcher Ben Heath, who has hit .271/.383/.516 over two leagues, including the South Atlantic League.

Thoughts: There was probably more pressure on the Astros to draft well — four of the first 58 picks, bad farm system — than any other team in baseball. They went for upside and potential, so it’s definitely too early to judge their haul. Kvasnicka’s early struggles are the most disconcerting, but easily written off given the defensive demands asked of him. And, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not the best college hitter the team drafted, between Heath and Austin Wates. But the key for the draft will be the three top 60 high school guys, who come at an investment of more than $4 million.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jimmy Nelson, Alabama, rhp, 64th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 6/4.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It’s pretty easy to just check the Helena Brewers box score to judge how this draft class has done so far: four of the team’s first five signees are there. The best has been either third-round pitcher Tyler Thornburg, who has struck out 20 of the 47 batters he’s faced, or sixth-round bat Cody Hawn, hitting a cool .284/.384/.510. Nelson has been a mixed bag out of the bullpen (3.37 FIP, 4.58 ERA), while Matthew Miller has been unimpressive in the rotation. The team’s first hitter drafted, Hunter Morris, has hit for power nicely (.205 ISO), but his .344 wOBA means the rest of his game is pretty unrefined.

Thoughts: It’s hard to assign the Brewers a lot of blame for not signing first-round pick Dylan Covey, who was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, and opted to attend college close to home rather than sign with Milwaukee. There isn’t much the team could do about it, but truly, without Covey the team’s draft is safe and unexciting. Perhaps Morris or Hawn are the eventual replacement for Prince Fielder at first base (though they won’t be ready in time to make it a seamless transition), and only Thornburg has a large gap between his present abilities and ultimate ceiling. Plain and simple, this is a draft that needed a first rounder.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 6.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jameson Taillon, Texas HS, rhp, 2nd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 4 college, 3 HS, 3 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Mel Rojas Jr. hit his 100 at-bat milestone yesterday in the New York-Penn League. While he’s showed little power (.060 ISO) and bad contact rates (25 K%), his patience and athleticism still grade out highly. On the same team, fifth-round pick Tyler Waldron has done a nice job with command and ground balls, but only 5.1 K/9. The majority of this draft class has not begun playing professionally yet.

Thoughts: This is great; this is a team putting their money where their mouth is, and showing a belief in the draft. $10 million is peanuts in the grand scheme of Major League spending, and it’s amazing how much talent it can bring in. In this draft, the Bucs signed two of the best high school pitchers to seven figure deals, and then gave five others at least $400K. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Pirates miss on their four big high school pitchers: Taillon, Stetson Allie, Nick Kingham, Ryan Hafner. And between Rojas, Drew Maggi and Jared Lakind, they might have snagged a future regular, too. This draft has great balance and a great budget. Win.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Zack Cox, Arkansas, 3b, 25th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s first four picks haven’t started yet. The earliest that has is high school shortstop Sam Tuivailala, and he’s been overmatched. The team’s next five picks were signable college guys, and all have done predictably well in short-season ball. Lefties John Gast (0.50 ERA, 18 IP) and Dan Bibona (0.61 ERA, 14.2 IP) have been ridiculous, while the best of the offensive players has been catcher Cody Stanley, both for his offense (.394 wOBA) and defense (56 CS%). Neither Nick Longmire (.842 OPS) or Greg Garcia (.778 OPS) have been bad, either.

Thoughts: St. Louis signed 17 of the first 18 players they drafted, with the exception being Austin Wilson, who I think was insurance in case Zack Cox didn’t sign. Their draft is college heavy, but I think they definitely have a few big leaguers here. Jordan Swagerty should fly through the system and make the bullpen by 2012. Cox has some more volatility than I’d like from a college guy, but his potential is excellent. Tyrell Jenkins was one of my favorite high school guys in the class. The Cardinals did good here, and it’s a good thing, because the farm system needed some depth.

Favorite NL Central Draft: Pittsburgh. Least Favorite: Milwaukee.

You’ve heard plenty about Yu Darvish and Matt Murton. Over my next couple posts, I’ll be introducing some MLB prospects currently active in Japan that you might not be aware of, but should be. These are guys that mostly likely won’t be coming over this offseason, but have sufficient upside to make them interesting prospects if/when they do.

My criteria for selecting players to include in this series:

* must be good
* must be on pace to become eligible to move to MLB by age 30 or so
* must be playing at the NPB level already

Kyuji Fujikawa (RHP, Hanshin Tigers, 30) – We’ll start with Japan’s top relief pitcher. Fujikawa has been a strikeout machine since getting healthy in 2005, hovering around 13 K/9 each year. This year he’s racked up 63 Ks in 45.1 innings of work, for a 12.51 mark. Fujikawa gets it done with a rising four-seam fastball that sits in the 93-96 mph range, and a hard forkball that frequently finds it’s way into the dirt. On the downside, Fujikawa has tweaked his delivery a bit over the years, and isn’t always consistent with his mechanics. Fujikawa has been known to be interested in moving to MLB for quite some time, but Hanshin has made it clear that they intend to hang on to him, so we’ll have to wait another two years or so before he’s eligible to make the jump via free agency. Here’s a video clip of him entering a recent Tigers game.

Takeya Nakamura (3B, Seibu Lions, 27) – Like Ryoji Nakata, Nakamura is, um, large. His nickname is “Okawari-kun,” “okawari” meaning “another serving” and “kun” being an informal version of “san.” Unlike Nakata, Okawari-kun is good. He’s struggled this season with injuries, but led Japan in home runs in 2008 and 2009, with 46 and 48, respectively. He also led Japan in strikeouts, with 162 and 154, again respectively. Despite his girth, Nakamura plays a respectable third base, with a good first step and a quick release on his throws. At the plate he’s a pull hitter, as you can see in this clip of all his 2008 home runs (including on at 1:29 off Darvish). I don’t really see Nakamura as an MLB prospect, but he’s a fun player nonetheless.

Munenori Kawasaki (SS, SofBank Hawks, 29) – Kawasaki is the consummate small-ball player: he makes contact, steals bases, puts bunts down, and plays good infield defense. Kawasaki typically hits for average, as well; he’s currently fourth in the Pacific League with a .327 mark. Unsurprisingly, the one thing Kawasaki has never done much of is hit for power. His next home run will be his fifth of the year, and a new personal best. Kawasaki has qualified for NPB domestic free agency, meaning that he can file for free agency and move to another NPB team this offseason. No one expects him to do that, though, and with another year of service time he’ll be eligible to move overseas. He’ll be an interesting prospect if he chooses to, I kind of see him as an infielder version of Scott Podsednik. YouTube didn’t turn up a lot of great results for Kawasaki, but there is this one.

I’ll be back shortly with another round of prospects to look it. Got questions? You have the floor.