When your team wins the game it’s easy to justify the decisions made therein. This morning, R.J. examined Joe Maddon’s moves in last night’s game against the Yankees and expressed a positive impression. While I don’t necessarily agree with the sac bunt call, which also led to the loss of the DH, it didn’t exactly hurt the Rays’ chances of winning the game. Otherwise, it seemed like Maddon made the right — i.e., obvious — moves, and it led to a win. Girardi, on the other hand, made some curious decisions that ended up hurting his team’s chances.

The most obviously bad move was going to Sergio Mitre in the 11th. He has questionable command to begin with, and after a week of inactivity it was unlikely he’d be at his sharpest. Even if Reid Brignac hadn’t homered, chances are he, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Pena would have gotten to him at some point. Once Mitre entered the game it was effectively over. The Rays were going to hit him at some point.

Girardi did have limited options for that 11th inning. David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain were not available. Mariano Rivera was essentially unavailable, though Girardi did say he would have brought him in to save a game. He has shown a willingness to use Rivera in a tie game on the road this season, and in fact has done so as recently as Friday. But Rivera is 41 and could certainly have used the rest. That left just a short set of arms available for extra innings. Unfortunately, that set included the team’s worst arms.

The truly bad bullpen decisions came earlier. Kerry Wood threw 11 pitches in the ninth, but didn’t come out for the 10th. That could have helped extend the game. Boone Logan has been effective since his latest recall and has pitched a full inning, or even more, on several occasions. Last night, Girardi used him for just one batter. There’s no guarantee that he could have staved off defeat, but he certainly gives the Yankees a better chance of survival than Sergio Mitre. So while going to Mitre in the 11th was essentially the only possible decision, Girardi’s prior decisions necessitated it.

Yet Girardi’s oddest decision of the night had nothing to do with the bullpen. It had to do with the exact bunting situation for which R.J. praised Maddon. Nick Swisher couldn’t start because of a gimpy knee, but he did pinch hit for Greg Golson. Since Swisher couldn’t play the field that meant rookie Colin Curtis had to take over in right field and in the ninth spot, which sets the stage for the top of the 11th.

Austin Kearns led off with a single. Up came Curtis Granderson. He hit eighth because the lefty David Price started the game, but this time around he was facing the righty Grant Balfour. Facing the right-handed throwing Balfour gives Granderson an advantage, but Girardi squandered it by having him bunt Kearns to second. That brought up Colin Curtis, who predictably made an out. So, essentially, Girardi traded two outs so Derek Jeter would get a shot to drive in the runner from second. While Jeter has looked better in the past two games, he has had a generally poor season at the plate. He put a good swing on a pitch, but ended up flying out to right. One batter later the Rays walked off.

Without Robertson and Chamberlain available, and for all practical purposes without Rivera, Girardi had tough choices to make. Unfortunately, he seemed to pull the wrong string at the wrong time. He doesn’t get a pass on this one. He gets a break of sorts because of his team’s handicap, but even so he could have made better decisions with the weapons he had. He wasn’t the sole reason the Yankees lost the game, but with a few different (better) moves the game might have ended on a different note.

I am not the god of baseball. But you already knew that. I don’t want to be “Commissioner for a day.” What’s the fun in that? I mean, after all, if I’m Commissioner then I have to deal with Michael Weiner and the MLBPA. No, I want to do whatever I please without anything getting in the way.

So, if I had the powers to do whatever I please, what would I do? Here’s a sampling:

Abolishing the DH

Let’s get the easy one out of the way: I’m killing the DH. It’s time for the NL and AL to play by the same rules. Yeah, you’re going to get more bunts than before and guys like Thome and Manny have shorter careers, but it’s time to put a fork in it if for no other reason than to keep AL pitchers from looking like fools in the postseason when they come to the plate.

Expanded Instant Replay

If there are boundary calls for homeruns, let’s go one step more and say that instant replay should be used for foul balls. It’s not going to go as far as some would like, but at the very least the gaffe that Phil Cuzzi made in Game 2 of last year’s ALDS doesn’t happen anymore. When you look at how bad that call was, it’s an easy decision to make. I’m sure Joe Mauer agrees with me.

The Luxury Tax in Reverse

I can’t take credit for this one, but in a lengthy discussion with ESPN’s Jayson Stark, I came to really respect his idea of using a scaled tax at the bottom of the revenue scale, much like the Competitive Balance Tax at the top. In this instance, there’s a minimum payroll threshold to which clubs must adhere. You can opt to go below it, but if so, you get taxed for every dollar below. The change would keep clubs such as the Marlins from pulling in such high levels of revenue sharing, while fielding low player payroll year after year. You could do – just as is the case with the Luxury Tax – increased tax rates for those that go below the threshold in consecutive years.

Teeth in the Luxury Tax

While we’re at it, I’m tired of the Yankees thumbing their nose at the Luxury Tax and busting through the thresholds each and every year. It’s time to make it so painful that they throttle back. If I have my way, the tax rate starts at 50%, escalates to 70% for breaking the threshold a second consecutive time, and 90% for each consecutive time thereafter. I think I just heard Hank Steinbrenner faint… either that or punch a wall.

Loria, the Nuttings, David Glass, and Frank McCourt

Gentlemen, thanks for playing… you’re all fired. Time to get some owners in position that either want to be competitive instead of getting fat on Luxury Tax dollars, or (as is the case with McCourt) realize that coming into ownership leveraged deep and then going up to your gills in debt isn’t good for the best interests of baseball. Go ask Tom Hicks what I think of him.

Giving Mark Cuban a Chance

I’ve written repeatedly that Mark Cuban will never be allowed to be part of the ownership brethren during the Selig tenure and likely with his successor. Since Bud and the owners don’t have any say in this fantasy, I’m letting Cuban buy the Pirates after the Nuttings are removed. I have a stipulation, however… Cuban has to wear a shock collar, and if he gets any closer to the field than lower bowl concourse during a game, he gets hit with high voltage. I figure this will put an end to any notion that Cuban goes all “NBA on the umpires” like he’s done with the refs at Mavericks games. Come to think of it, this in-game entertainment might be more fun than the Sausage Races. I imagine that given time, Cuban couldn’t help himself and would take the volts rather than bite his tongue.

Putting a Limit on Mound Trips

Watching the postseason last year, I think Jorge Posada spent nearly as much time on the pitching mound as some of the relievers. I’m putting a cap on the number of trips a catcher can make to the mound at 4 during a game. The number likely gets you two trips for the starter, and two for the relief staff. That should be plenty.

Balancing the Divisions

As baseball god, I’m giving this one to the people. But no matter how you realign the league, the AL West has to go from 4 to 5 and the NL Central from 6 to 5. Make the league 6 Divisions of 5. I’m sure you’re creative. Let’s hear your comments.

Postseason Games On Sat. and Sun. Have Daytime Starts

FOX will pitch a fit, but I don’t care. This is about growing the game for the next generation. I’m will to compromise and give you weekdays for prime time, but on the weekends, 3pm ET starts allows the youngest of baseball fans to catch 9 innings, and maybe a couple more if extra frames are needed before hitting the rack. You’ll thank me when kids that have become more in-tune with other sports start getting hooked on MLB again.

Using a Clock for Exhibition Games

The game needs to pick up the pace, but I’m not ready for a “pitch clock” for games that count, and that includes Spring Training. But, the SEC added not one, but two play clocks in tournament play this year, and I want to see how big league players would react. It’s a good thing Nomar’s retired.

No More Home Field Advantage with the All-Star Game

If the league wants to allow fans to vote up to 25 times for All-Star selections, then I want no more of the winner of the Mid-Summer Classic having home field advantage in the World Series. Pure and simple, the team with the best regular season record gets it. Figure out another way to incentivize the players. Here’s something novel… The winning team gets a hefty bonus. Make the “purse” a selling point. Start with $1 million and escalate the amount each year to the winners. That should redefine, “This time it counts.”

Adding 2 More Teams Into the Postseason

MLB has the fewest percentage of their clubs advancing to the postseason of any of the other Big-4 sports. I say, add in two more Wild Card teams. To keep owners that have teams missing the playoffs from pitching a fit about lost games, the regular season will be compressed on the calendar by adding a novel suggestion: Bring back more day-night double-headers.

Death to Blackouts

There’s certainly more that could be monkeyed with here. I’m sure I’ve missed something (I never addressed Tim McCarver or Joe Morgan). But of all the things I’d change, I end with the most important of the lot: I’m killing off MLB’s television blackout policy with the exception of the postseason. There are so many regular season games played in MLB that the idea that blackouts will drive fans to the ballpark is bordering on lunacy at this stage. When you throw in the arcane and often times expansive broadcast territories, there’s nothing beneficial for the fans with the blackout policy. And if the league would catch a clue, you grow your product by making it readily available to the masses, not by restricting consumers, which should made dissolving the blackout policy a win for the owners, as well. Oh, and FOX and ESPN… Sorry, your days of national exclusivity deals are history. To baseball fans, I am releasing you from bondage.

Finally… What would you change?

Like with Transformers, there’s more than meets the eye in this edition of One Night Only.

Also like Transformers, this edition of One Night Only will someday be made into a giant Hollywood film starring Megan Fox.

(Games listed in order of likely awesomeness. NERD scores in parentheses.)

Featured Games
New York Americans (7) at Tampa Bay (10), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Ivan Nova (7) and Matt Garza (5). Nova has impressed in limited time this season, posting a line that looks precisely like this: 24.2 IP, 6.20 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 49.4% GB, 3.89 xFIP. Though his curve is getting all the love from our pitch-type linear weights (+1.43 per 100 thrown), it’s his change that makes for the most compelling viewing. He throws it around 87 mph, and it just disappears. I mean it: this guy’s like frigging Gob Bluth over here.
• At the team level, it’s a fact: these teams are at the top of the AL East standings. After last night’s victory, Tampa Bay now has a 0.5-game lead.
• You should take note of Joe Girardi’s bullpen management. Last night, in the bottom of the 11th inning, in a tie game, he bypassed Living Legend Mariano Rivera in favor of Merely Decent Sergio Mitre. The first batter of that inning, Fresh Faced Reid Brignac, hit a 3-2 change for a home run.

San Diego (10) at Colorado (6), 8:40pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Jon Garland (3) and Jason Hammel (7). Allow me to admit this: I didn’t know the difference between Hammel and former Rays’ teammate Jeff Niemann until maybe late June or early July of this year — i.e. when his (i.e. Hammel’s) name became a fixture atop the NERD leaderboards. In reality, he’s doing the same thing this year as last. Seriously. Here’s 2009: 176.2 IP, 6.78 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 46.2% GB, 3.81 xFIP. Now here’s this year: 161.2 IP, 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 46.3% GB, 3.75 xFIP. I mean it: this guy’s a frigging metronome over here.
• At the team level, we have here two clubs that are trying to assassinate each other.
• You should take note of Colorado’s leadoff spot, on account of it’s been occupied by Eric Young since mid-August. There’s no guarantee he has even a league-average bat (90 wRC+ currently) or that his speed will translate into runs (16-for-21 on SB attempts, maybe slightly better than breakeven), but there’s something terribly exciting about a rookie leading off for a team that has recently — and dramatically — clawed its way back into playoff contention.

Philadelphia (4) at Florida (7), 7:10pm ET
• Your starting pitchers are Cole Hamels (9) and Adalberto Mendez (N/A). Who’s Mendez? That’s the exact question I asked Michael Jong of Marlin Maniac. He said, and I quote:

Adalberto Mendez is a career minor leaguer saddled with the great burden of having a cool first name. If not cool, certainly long. He has bounced around a couple organizations due to the fact that he cannot control his pitches, with a career minor league walk rate of 10.3%. He only recently reached the Triple-A level with some semblance of permanence, and only this season has he pitched fairly well. He has fairly mundane stuff (fastball/slider mostly, as he has worked primarily out of the bullpen) and has a flyball-heavy batted ball profile. In other words, if the Marlins weren’t down their top two starters, he probably wouldn’t be making his second major league start.

Here’s Mendez’ line at Triple-A New Orleans: 71.2 IP, 9.17 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, 3.77 FIP. Also, as Jong notes, the righty’s approach is flyball heavy: Mendez has routinely posted minor league groundball rates in the mid-30% region.
• At the team level — well, I don’t know if you’d call it the team level or what, but it’s a fact, nonetheless: Marlin coach Edwin Rodriguez has batted Emilio Bonifacio leadoff for about the last week or so. One the one hand, yes, Bonifacio is currently doing this: .320/.360/.416, .357 wOBA, 124 wRC+. On the other hand, he’s currently sporting a .385 BABIP. And also, he did this exact thing last year — i.e. get lucky on balls in play — before seriously regressing and ending up with a 66 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in 509 PAs.
• You should (continue to) take note of the Marlin outfield, which features in Mike Stanton a 20-year-old who’s currently third in the NL in ISO (among anyone with more than 300 PAs).

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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Last night, Joe Maddon displayed his willingness to run through every available option on the fly without erring into the danger zone of allowing momentary passion to override logic. Take his treatment of David Price. After eight innings, the score sat at a deadlocked 0-0. Price had thrown 114 pitches while allowing five baserunners. Maddon could have sent him back out there, but he didn’t. It goes beyond raw pitch counts, with the Rays’ coaching staff taking leverage into account when analyzing when the bullpen should be installed in place of a tiring starter. Nobody thinks it’s a bad idea to send out the young ace for one more inning versus a division rival with first place on the line until something goes wrong.

Maddon used Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour in that order from the ninth inning onward. If asked to pluck the three finest relievers in the Rays’ pen, ostensibly that’s the correct selection. The pen did its job, going three innings while allowing only two baserunners. Although, somewhat oddly, failing to record a strikeout.

As for non-pitching moves.

Maddon pinch hit Dioner Navarro for the designated hitter – Willy Aybar – in the eighth against CC Sabathia. Why? So Navarro could lay down a bunt and advance the runner to second with nobody out. Bunting in the situation is defensible given the run scoring environment. Navarro is among the team’s more skilled bat handlers while also being the best backstop defensively. Maddon traded the designated hitter spot to move Navarro behind the plate in the ninth.

Maddon would also pinch hit for Sean Rodriguez (the starter at second base who moved to left field after Carl Crawford’s ejection) with Matt Joyce against Chad Gaudin. In the 10th, he would pinch hit for Jason Bartlett with Brad Hawpe – who would play right field – and Maddon also used Dan Johnson in place of the pitcher’s spot. Ben Zobrist moved from right field to second base and Reid Brignac – whose idol appears to be Crawford in how he’s dressing and setting up his stance – would move from second to shortstop before hitting the game-winning home run.

In the end, the results will be used to judge Maddon, but the processes leading up to the results instill the confidence in Maddon being among the game’s best managers.

With two marquee match-ups getting underway tonight, we’d like to offer you guys an opportunity to watch them with your fellow FanGraphs readers. Feel free to use this thread as an open discussion about either game.

The big contract this offseason was the deal given to Matt Holliday by the St. Louis Cardinals: a seven year deal with 120 million dollars in guaranteed money. The contract will pay $17 million dollars annually to Holliday, paying him as a roughly 4.5-5 WAR player to begin the contract and less as inflation of free agent contract (likely) picks up in subsequent offseasons.

At least for one season, the Cardinals are getting more than their money’s worth. Holliday has been absolutely fantastic for the Cardinals this season, slashing .307/.379/.535. He’s been above average in every factor of hitting, walking 9.3% of the time, striking out under 15% of the time, hitting for solid power with a .229 ISO, and posting a .323 BABIP that is actually a step back from his career .347 mark. Put it all together, and Holliday has a .392 wOBA and a 150 wRC+. Combine that with solid defense in left field – +8 UZR this season after three straight positive seasons – and Holliday checks in as a 5.8 WAR player so far in 589 plate appearances. With 21 games left this season, barring a major collapse down the stretch, Holliday should eclipse the six WAR mark for the second time in the last four seasons.

That means that Holliday will be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 million dollars when all is said and done in 2010. This strong age 30 campaign not only provided the Cardinals with excellent value and kept them in the playoff race for most of the season, but it also bodes extremely well for next season and beyond. One of the major concerns with Holliday was that his decline phase could begin soon, but he showed no sign whatsoever of slowing down in 2010. ZiPS projects a .401 wOBA the rest of the way. CHONE’s updated projections have Holliday as a 4.4 WAR player over 150 games, and that’s assuming that he’s an average defender. According to these projections, Holliday should once again provide some value over his contract in 2011 as well.

With all that said, the issues with a seven year contract are rarely in years one and two. The worries around Cardinal Nation and elsewhere mostly had to do with paying Holliday, an elite player, but not an Albert Pujols or Chase Utley type, $17 million dollars as he approaches his late 30s. If Holliday was only performing at that market value 4.5 WAR mark, there would be reason to worry that Holliday could slowly depreciate into a below average player in the 5th, 6th, and 7th year of the contract. Holliday should still end up declining over the next six seasons, but with this season as a starting point, there’s far less reason for Cardinal fans to fret over the end of his contract. Barring catastrophe, his abilities should be able to keep up with inflation, and he just may provide surplus value for the Cardinals for years to come.

Most of the attention in baseball tonight will fall squarely on the Tampa Bay-New York match-up, where CC Sabathia will take on David Price, with the winner of the game holding sole possession of first place in the AL East. It is a big match-up with quite a few playoff implications on the line. If either team can pull off a series sweep, they’ll put themselves in a great position to win their division and likely finish with the best record in the league, which means a first round date with the Rangers instead of the Twins. Neither of those teams are pushovers, but given Josh Hamilton’s health, that’s almost certainly a better match-up right now.

The reality is that the series in Tampa won’t decide a playoff spot. Both of those teams are headed for October baseball, as the loser of the AL East will almost certainly win the Wild Card. While they want to win the division, neither team’s season is hanging in the balance. So, while it’s a big series, there’s a bigger one out west.

90 minutes later, the San Diego Padres will kick off their series in Colorado against the surging Rockies, winners of 10 straight. The Padres lead in the NL West is down to percentage points, and Colorado only stands 1 1/2 games out of first place. Both of these teams have a real chance to win their division, but both also trail the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card race. It is likely that one of these teams will be sitting at home when the playoffs begin, and because of how closely the races over in the Senior Circuit are, the playoff teams will probably squeak in with just a win or two more than the ones whose seasons end after 162 games.

This San Diego-Colorado match-up has enormous ramifications for what we’re going to see in October. A Padres sweep puts the Rockies back on life support. San Diego’s season won’t end in the next few days, but the last thing they need after a prolonged slump is to get whooped by a surging division opponent. If the Rockies take the series, and especially if they sweep, the Padres will need to find some late season magic in order to keep their miracle season alive.

Cory Luebke vs Jeff Francis isn’t quite as sexy as the Price-Sabathia tilt in the AL, but that’s the game with big implications tonight. If you have the ability to watch either game, I highly suggest watching the two Western teams square off. You’ll see Tampa Bay and New York in the playoffs, and you might even see them play each other again. You almost certainly won’t see both Colorado and San Diego in October, and the series that begins tonight will go a pretty good ways to determining which of those two teams gets to keep on going after the regular season ends.

In appreciation of the magnitude of the games tonight, we’ll be hosting a special live blog for anyone who wants to discuss the games as they happen. We’ll kick that off at 7:00 and leave it open through the end of the Rockies-Padres game. This is when baseball really gets fun – come enjoy it with fellow FanGraphs readers.

Although wOBA is demonstrably superior to OPS as a “go to” all-in-one offensive stat, the good old “three slash” (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging) is still useful, as a way to briefly describe offensive performance, if not to value it. From it, one can get an idea of much (or how little) a player relies on batting average to get on base, how much power a player displayed, and so on.

One sort of three-slash line that usually stands out to me is when a player’s OBP is greater than their SLG. It “looks funny” to me. Let’s take a look at which qualified players have an OBP > SLG so far this season and see how offensively valuable they are. So without further ado, if the season ended today, here are the members of the 2010 OBP>SLG club, ranked in ascending order from those with the smallest OBP-SLG gap.

Just made it in: Cesar Izturis (.234/.275/.274, .248 wOBA), Nyjer Morgan (257/.317/.316, .286, ), Ryan Theriot (.277/.325/.324, .292 wOBA). All three of these players just snuck in with an OBP one point higher than their SLG, and all three are having terrible seasons at the plate.

6. Brett Gardner (.280/.388/.379, .360 wOBA). Many people thought that Gardner could play, but few envisioned him as a five win player in 2010. We’ll save the proper pats-on-the back and a full analysis of Gardner’s value until after the season. While most thought that Gardner would be an excellent defender (and he has been) with potentially a non-terrible bat, few thought he’d be almost 17 runs above average on offense. It’s hard to be bad offensively with an OBP near .390, no matter how little power is involved. Given his speed, his BABIP isn’t excessive, either, and he has excellent strike zone judgment (18.3% O-Swing) and contact rate (90.5%). He’s definitely pulled off Nyjer Morgan’s 2009; now if he can just avoid Morgan’s 2010…

5. Yunel Escobar (.258/.339/.329, .306 wOBA). Bobby Cox’s favorite shortstop has had a serious power outage this season, posting by far the lowest ISO of his career (.071). His OBP is also down, but given that his walk rate so far is actually the highest of his career, this is likely the result of his career-low BABIP (.284). Batted ball analysis is difficult, and there doesn’t seem to be a huge difference in his raw numbers — slightly fewer line drives and flies, and more ground balls. He still fields well, and given that he’s very likely much better at the plate than a .306 wOBA, Atlanta might be regretting this trade for a while.

4. Jason Kendall (.256/.318/.297, .278 wOBA). [INSERT JOKE HERE]

3. Juan Pierre (.273/.339/.314, .308 wOBA). Look, the guy has been terrible offensively. Even after including the steals, he’s about 10 runs below average. He has no power, and doesn’t walk much despite decent knowledge of the strike zone. This might be Brett Gardner’s future. But if you believe UZR, he’s been almost 10 runs above average in left field, about 1.4 WAR player. That’s better than critics of the White Sox’ acquisition of Pierre (including me) expected.

2. Chone Figgins (.249/.333/.294, .295 wOBA). Figgins’ 2009 was one of the better OBP>SLG offensive seasons of recent times, but 2010… well, he pretty much represents everything that went wrong for the 2010 Mariners. Even if he’d played average second base (he hasn’t), he’d still be a massive flop given this offensive production and paycheck. Figgins’ strike zone judgment is still good (20.6% O-Swing), but is actually signficantly worse than his previous seasons, although that translated into only slightly worse strikeout and walk rates. Figgins has always lived and died by his BABIP, and while there’s probably some degree of bad luck going on in 2010, there’s a chance he’s losing what little ability he used to have to drive the ball.

1. Elvis Andrus (.273/.354/.312, .308 wOBA). Andrus is still a very valuable player to the Rangers, given his youth, defensive skills, and price tag, but this is a bit of a let down after his surprisingly (given his prior minor league numbers) non-horrible 2009 at the plate. Yes, even for a player who is supposed to be a defensive specialist, a .308 wOBA while playing in the Rangers’ launching pad is bad, especially the .038 ISO. It is difficult to find much “bad luck” in the numbers for Andrus, and while he’s still extremely young (he just turned 22 a couple of weeks ago), the Rangers may have to settle for a good-glove, no-hit shortstop, as even a .354 OBP can only make up so much for a total lack of power.

Of these players, only Gardner has been an above-average contributor offensively in 2010, and none of the others are even close (Escobar’s true talent is probably better than he’s shown this season). On-base percentage is still more important that slugging, but unless it is really high, it can’t make up for everything. It hasn’t always been the case, historically, that most OBP>SLG hitters did poorly, and in the future, I’ll take a look at the best OBP>SLG seasons (and careers) of all time.

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re looking at the National League Central division.

Previously, we looked at:
The American League East
The National League West
The American League Central
The National League Central

Conger followed up a healthy ’09 season in double-A with another good offensive season in triple-A in which he posted a wOBA of .374. Although his raw power remained just that – raw (with only 11 homers and an ISO of .163) – Conger produced a solid triple-slash line at .300/.385/.463 in 387 at-bats. His walk rate sat at an impressive 12.2 BB% and his strikeout rate was impressive at just 15.0%. On the down side, his defense continues to be “meh,” which is never good for a catcher hoping to play for Mike Scioscia. The 22-year-old switch-hitting Conger could become the next (cheaper-younger) Mike Napoli.

It was a rougher-than-expected year for Carter, who (as of this writing) is 0-for-19 in his MLB debut with a strikeout rate of 47.4% K. Playing mostly at triple-A in ’10, the former White Sox prospect hit .258/.365/.529 with an ISO rate of .271. He slugged 30+ homers in the minors for the second time in three years. (He hit “just” 28 in ’09). Carter is your typical slugging first baseman with 30+ homer potential in the Majors, but he’ll likely hit in the .250-.260 range with a whole whack of strikeouts. Defense is not a strong suit at first base and he’s played the outfield during his brief MLB career with less-than-stellar results. Even with his warts, Oakland can definitely use Carter’s power.

You don’t see many 22-year-old closers, but that’s exactly what you have with Feliz. His two-pitch repertoire (96 mph fastball, curveball) has overpowered MLB hitters all season (.192 batting average against, 9.30 K/9) and he currently sits third in the AL with 35 saves. The youngster has also been worked hard by his manager and is in the Top 10 in games pitched in the AL. Pitching in short stints, Feliz has all but abandoned his changeup (thrown 3.4% of the time), which does not bode well for his future development and value to the team (1.4 WAR).

Saunders’ minor league success just has not carried over to the Majors. He’s currently producing a triple-slash line of .213/.289/.372 in 239 at-bats, good for a wOBA of .292. The Canadian has had major issues with making contact (30% MLB strikeout rate), although he’s at least hitting for more power this season (.159 ISO in 2010 vs .057 in ’09). Known as a pretty good fielder in the minors, Saunders’ glove has not helped him enough. His WAR value is still in the negative for his career. At this point, he doesn’t look like anything more than a fourth outfielder, although youth remains on his side for now, but he needs to make some adjustments.

Up Next: The National League East

When a team finds their guy, it’s usually pretty easy to spot. You can see it when a team chooses one player, perhaps multiple times, over comparable alternatives. In the winter following the 2005 season, it looked pretty clear that Josh Beckett was the Red Sox’ guy. They traded Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, their Nos. 1 and 5 preseason prospects, for a pitcher who, through the first four years of his career, had spent 222 days on the disabled list. Teams don’t do that for ordinary players. The Sox clearly saw something in Beckett that they couldn’t find in another pitcher obtainable for the price of Ramirez and Sanchez — which probably would have been plenty.

That trade appeared to backfire on the Red Sox from the start. Beckett had plenty of problems in his transition to the AL, the long ball not least among them. His strikeout rate dipped, his walk rate rose, and, despite a career-low .270 BABIP he still allowed more hits per nine than he had since 2003. All the while, 1,500 miles to the south, Ramirez stepped into the Marlins starting lineup and immediately started fulfilling his potential. While his defense was shaky he still produced a .364 wOBA and 4.1 WAR, good enough to earn him NL Rookie of the Year honors. With Boston missing the playoffs for the first time since 2002, it was easy to second guess the trade. But Boston remained confident in Beckett’s ability to rebound.

They were so confident of Beckett’s abilities, in fact, that during his beleaguered 2006 campaign they signed him to a three-year, $30 million extension with a $12 million club option for 2010. The announcement came at an odd time in that it happened during a postgame press conference with manager Terry Francona, but it also came at an opportune time in that Beckett had just completed eight shutout innings against the Royals. Prior to that he had a 5.12 ERA and 5.57 FIP — which means, of course, that the Sox signed him when he was at his lowest. Even after that start against KC he didn’t fare well, a 5.36 ERA and 4.41 FIP the rest of the way.

In 2007, of course, the league finally realized the full potential of Josh Beckett. The National League had its fits with him from 2002 through 2005, but never had they experienced a full 30 starts of Beckett dominance. That’s what he unleashed on the American League in 2007. In those 30 starts he struck out 8.7 per nine while walking just 1.8. He also halved his home run rate, which was probably the single biggest difference between his first two seasons in Boston. The result was a 3.27 ERA and 3.08 FIP through 200.2 innings, good enough for second in the AL Cy Young voting. Much to Boston fans’ collective delight, he then led the team to its second World Series in four years with 30 brilliant innings.

While Beckett hasn’t repeated his 2007 greatness, he has still been Boston’s ace ever since. Some bad luck on balls in play, plus some time off in September due to injury, hurt his 2008 a bit; his 3.24 FIP and xFIP looked a lot better than his 4.03 ERA. In 2009 he reached a career high 212.1 innings, though his strikeout walk, and home run rates all trended in the wrong direction, though it wasn’t an overly significant change.

Still, it didn’t seem like the Red Sox were very concerned. They had so much faith in Beckett that they signed him to a four-year, $68 million extension in early April. The contract calls for a $15.75 million salary from 2011 through 2014, which is half a million more each year than John Lackey will earn in that span. It might seem, then, like Beckett has some type of contract aversion. He tripped and stumbled after signing his first long-term deal with the Red Sox and pulled a similar act the second time. But the relapse was quite a bit worse. In his first eight starts Beckett pitched just 45.2 innings and allowed a 7.29 ERA, which included uncharacteristically high hit and walk rates. His FIP, 4.31, looked a bit better, but it was clear when watching him that a lack of command played a large role in his high hit and walk rates. After he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings against the Yankees on May 18, he hit the DL with back issues, not to return for two months.

Sox fans might have winced upon Beckett’s return. He did put together a few good starts right after the comeback, just five runs during his 20.2 innings against the Mariners, Angels, and Indians. But those are three below-average offenses. In his next two starts, against New York and Texas, he allowed 13 runs in 9.2 IP, and then let up six against the Angels in 6.1 IP. It looked like another downhill slide for Beckett. Again, as was the case after the first time the Red Sox signed him to a long-term deal, it was easy to second guess this move.

Lately, Beckett has turned things around a bit. He’s not his dominant self from a few years ago, but that can’t really be expected at this point in the season. But even without top-notch stuff he’s still managed to strike out 28 in his last 25.2 innings, walking just nine in that span. Five of those walks came in yesterday’s six-inning, three-run performance against Oakland. His hit and walk rates, plus his BABIP, are all still above his career averages, signaling a continued lack of command. But he certainly looks better on the mound than he did earlier in the season. It’s an encouraging sign for 2011.

Josh Beckett is always going to spend some time on the shelf. He has, in fact, spent time on the DL, 115 days, in every season with the Sox except 2006 and 2009. But the Sox have done a good job of limiting that time, and have for the most part kept Beckett a healthy and effective pitcher. He hit a road block in 2010, but that’s one that can be overcome with a winter’s rest. Given the way he bounced back last time he experienced a poor season, I expect that 2011 will be yet another quality one for Beckett and the Sox.