Timing is everything in comedy and baseball options. The Twins inked Jason Kubel to a two-year extension (value: $7.2M) in January 2009. Kubel responded with a career best season. He hit 28 home runs, notched 35 doubles, and boasted career bests in each of the slash line statistics. On the surface, it appeared the 27-year-old was tapping into his offensive potential reservoir, but an uncharacteristically high batting average on balls in play appeared to the underlying key to his offensive downpour.

A full season later and Kubel’s $5.25M option for the 2011 season no longer appears to be a bargain. Not after the worst season of his career. Kubel spent more time in the outfield because of Jim Thome’s presence and his ability to play defense is about what one would expect from a career designated hitter. The power receded to previous career norms and Kubel’s strikeout rate ticked upwards. Oh, and to make matters even worse, Kubel’s BABIP slipped to .280 (his career average now is .299).

The past two seasons place the Twins in an awkward position. Before the extension, Kubel was a cheap above average hitter who worked as a DH on a small market team. The Twins are no longer that small market team and Kubel isn’t the best DH on the roster anymore. He’s not even the best left-handed hitting DH on the roster, as he struggles mightily against lefties (.322, .286, .297 the past three seasons) and requires a platoon mate. The man can hit righties, but cannot play defense or do much of anything else.

That makes him a fungible asset. Age is no longer on his side and one has to wonder how much a catastrophic knee injury zapped his minor league potential. The Twins’ payroll flexibility is better than it used to be, but not in the neighborhood of the Gotham teams, so while it’s only $5 million, one has to think the Twins would be better off using that money to re-sign the ageless Jim Thome and chip the rest in towards re-signing their favorite bullpen arm with an expiring contract.

Now that the Phillies 2010 season is over, the focus in Philadelphia shifts to the big question of the winter – is Jayson Werth going to leave, and if so, how do they replace him? The prevailing assumption has been that the Phillies have no chance at re-signing him, given their $144 million in committed salaries for 2011, but Ruben Amaro recently stated that the Phillies had enough money to sign him “depending on what the ask is”. Of course, he then went on to say this:

“Jayson had a good year. It wasn’t an extraordinary year,” Amaro said. “He had a tough time with men in scoring position. It wasn’t as productive a year as he had in the past. If he is not with us, there are players that we can acquire and or we have in our own organization that can help us be as consistent.”

If that’s not setting your fan base up for Werth to leave, I don’t know what is. And, given that the Phillies probably need Werth more than any other team in baseball, losing him could present a serious problem, despite Amaro’s statements that he can be replaced.

If the Phillies replace Werth with Domonic Brown, which seems to be the expected scenario, they’ll have something like the following line-up.

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Switch
Placido Polanco, 3B, Right
Chase Utley, 2B, Left
Ryan Howard, 1B, Left
Shane Victorino, CF, Switch
Raul Ibanez, LF, Left
Carlos Ruiz, C, Right
Domonic Brown, RF, Left
Pitcher

Maybe they’d shuffle things around a bit, but it would be some version of a line-up that looked something like that. It doesn’t take much effort to see that the lack of right-handed thump would present a legitimate problem.

Managers already were able to bring in situational lefties to attack the middle of the Phillies line-up in high leverage situations, as we saw in the NLCS. Removing Werth from the equation exacerbates the problem, and the Phillies will run into a lot of situations where they are asking Ryan Howard or Raul Ibanez to get a big hit off of a left-handed reliever in a high leverage situation.

Werth provided necessary balance in the middle of the order, even if Amaro didn’t like his performance with men on base this year. If you replace him with Domonic Brown, it will be nearly impossible to find a spot for a quality right-handed bat on that roster. Each position comes with an incumbent that makes upgrading a challenge.

The Phillies best option would probably be to try to move Raul Ibanez in order to free up left field for a right-handed hitter, but with a $12 million salary, the Phillies would have to eat money in order to move him, and the right-handed outfielder market isn’t very good this winter. After Werth, you’re looking at guys like Austin Kearns, Marcus Thames, and Andruw Jones, none of whom are going to motivate Amaro to make that kind of change.

Essentially, the Phillies options seem to boil down to re-signing Jayson Werth or running out a line-up with a large, exploitable flaw next year. For all of the talk about having alternatives, I’m not sure I see a reasonable one. If the Phillies really do have enough money to keep Werth, they almost have to do it. Losing him would be a real problem, and one that would not have an easy solution.

In a couple of previous articles, I looked at the 2010 disabled list data for all the teams and player positions. I have finally gone through and compiled the data on body part locations.

Last year Josh Hermsmeyer compiled an injury database with 2002 to 2009 DL information. In it, he set a format for selecting the various body parts. I have gone ahead and used the same categories. I have made another spreadsheet (Sheet 2) with these various designations for people to use. I will format the 2010 injury information so it can be combined with Josh’s data once the new retrosheet data set is released after the playoffs are completed.

To make the body location data easier for interpretation, I have combined Josh’s categories into a few broad categories:

Arms and Hands – hand, wrist, forearm, upperarm
Elbow – elbow
General – generalmedical
Hip – hip
Legs and Feet – ankle, foot, knee, thigh, lowerleg
Neck and Head – face, head, neck
Shoulder – shoulder
Trunk – upperback, back, chest, abdomen

First, here is the injury location data for total days and trips for pitchers and hitters to the DL:

No real surprise here with pitchers dominating days lost to elbow and shoulder injuries and hitters mainly having injuries to their arms and legs.

Finally, here is a comparison of the average number of days lost for pitchers and hitters.

Pitchers take longer to get off the DL, excect for hip and general injuries. Well that is it for today. My next project is a little more ambitious as I want to find the chances of a player going on the DL knowing a set of conditions (i.e. previous injury history, age, etc).

Since October 16, every time I turn on my TV I see this:

I’ve recently wised up and changed the channel to which my cable box defaults, but that message still plays all day, on both Fox 5 and a dedicated alert channel. I was not able to watch one minute of the NLCS on my TV, and it it’s a certainty that when the World Series commences tomorrow night that I will have to find an alternative way to watch it. You might understand my rage over this issue.

The point of conflict, predictably, is money. Fox wants a raise. Cablevision isn’t willing to pay the amount Fox has demanded. The two sides were not able to agree on a rate by the October 16 deadline, and so Fox pulled its programming from Cablevision. This hit first on Saturday night, when the Giants played the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS, and then hit again on Sunday when the New York Football Giants played the Detroit Lions. Giants fans have something of a reprieve, as they played on ESPN this week and have a bye next week. But baseball fans still must seek an alternative for the World Series.

Calling Cablevision about the matter is pointless. From their phone menu I selected the option regarding Fox programming, but it was just another propaganda-filled recording. During the message they note that should Cablevision acquiesce to Fox’s demands, our cable bills will go up. But when I finally got through to a customer service representative, I was informed that Cablevision was not issuing refunds for Fox service. So we’re either paying more for the same service, or we’re paying for a service we’re not receiving. Yet that that is not my biggest complaint about this spat.

That I have to go Radio Shack and buy a digital TV antenna is absurd. I cut Cablevision a check every month for my cable service. In exchange, they deliver me the appropriate channel package. Fox is included in that package. Now I have to cut the same check as every month, only for a lower level of service. Not only that, but I have to spend between $25 and $50 on a digital TV antenna, so that I can actually watch the World Series this year. The worst part is that watching the World Series this year is not optional.

If you haven’t yet noticed, we’re supplying WPA-based recaps for ESPN this postseason. If you click through the dates here you can see the FanGraphs content from the LDS and LCS. We’re set to do it again in the World Series. How can I recap a game I haven’t watched? This requires me to either 1) go to a bar, or 2) buy an antenna. Since recaps and bars don’t go well together, and since my wallet appreciates me not going to a bar every game of the World Series, the antenna is the only practical option if I want to do my job. Cablevision and Fox, in other words, are preventing me from pursuing my livelihood.

(It’s not all work related, of course. Even if I didn’t work for FanGraphs I’d want to watch the World Series, because it’s the goddamn championship of the sport with which I’m unhealthily obsessed.)

This isn’t the first time Cablevision has sparred with a content provider. Earlier this year ABC pulled its programming over the same money issue. That cut into the Oscar’s broadcast, and service was restored about 20 minutes into the program. We aren’t that lucky with Fox. We’re currently in Day 11 of the blackout, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. Cablevision has agreed to binding arbitration, which would settle the matter immediately. Fox hasn’t, because that would be to concede the negotiations. They’re not going to get anything near what they’re seeking in arbitration.

Both parties are to blame in this. Fox’s parent company, News Corp., wants to change the way it is compensated for its programming. Cablevision wants to keep the status quo. Caught in the middle of their spat are millions of consumers in the New York Metro area. I do not think Cablevision customers should stand for this. We pay them to deliver content, and they are not holding up their end of the deal. They put the blame on Fox, but that’s just propaganda. Similarly, Fox’s effort, Keep Fox On, tells only one side of the story and distorts the other. All consumers need to know is that both sides are failing them.

Tonight I will go and purchase a digital TV antenna so that I can watch the World Series. But once I do, that’s the end of Cablevision in my mind. I will not be held hostage by two companies that clearly do not care about me. There’s nothing I can do about Fox, since they’re a network channel. But I can let Cablevision know that I won’t stand for their actions. I urge my fellow baseball fans to do the same. We need not continue paying for service we’re not getting, and then pay for an additional device, along with our full cable bills.

We’ve already talked about Ron Washington’s curious decision to play Vladimir Guerrero over David Murphy in San Francisco, but now he’s made another surprising decision in his World Series rotation. In game 2, he’s decided to hand the ball to C.J. Wilson, and then turn to Tommy Hunter in Game 4. I’m not sure I would have made the same call in either case.

The main difference between starting Game 2 and Game 3 is the ballpark in which you pitch. Washington chose to throw Wilson in San Francisco and Colby Lewis in Texas, but based on their styles of pitching and the respective ways the parks play, it doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Let’s just start with the obvious: 44.5 percent of Colby Lewis’ balls in play this year were flyballs, compared to just 33.5 percent for C.J. Wilson. Wilson has the highest groundball rate of any pitcher on the Rangers’ roster, in fact, while Lewis has the lowest groundball rate of any of their starters. They are complete opposites on what kinds of balls in play they allow.

San Francisco, of course, is a pretty big park, and it knocks down a lot of fly balls that could be home runs in Texas. It is especially hard to hit home runs to right field, which makes it one of the best places in baseball for a right-handed pitcher to throw. The ideal pitcher for AT&T park is a right-handed flyball guy, to which Matt Cain can attest. His skillset is perfect for how the park plays.

Colby Lewis is similar to Cain, but Lewis is now going to pitch in Game 3 in Texas – a place where flyballs often clear the fences. Wilson, who will get less of a benefit from pitching in San Francisco due to his groundball ways and being left-handed, gets the Game 2 start instead. Why? I’m not sure, honestly.

The other curious decision is to give Tommy Hunter another start in Game 4. Derek Holland is simply a better pitcher than Hunter, and he’s been excellent in relief in the postseason. The decision was reportedly based on the Giants having a right-handed heavy line-up, but they actually hit RHP better than LHP this year, and as we discussed yesterday, their options for a DH against LHP are not good. By starting a righty, the Giants will be able to use a better alignment of players in Game 4.

The choices the Rangers have made might not end up mattering much, as I’m sure Holland will be warming up as soon as Hunter gets in any kind of trouble. If Hunter doesn’t pitch well, he won’t last more than an inning or two, and they’ll end up with the better pitcher on the mound anyway. But if Hunter digs them a hole they can’t climb out of, they might regret giving him the start when they have a superior option down in the bullpen.

Magglio Ordonez’s bat was just too good to keep off the field in 2008 and 2009. Normally, that wouldn’t be a bad thing, but Ordonez’s 1141 plate appearances during that stretch forced the 2010 Tigers to commit $18 million dollars to the aging outfielder. Ordonez had a good 2010, posting a .375 wOBA, but a fractured right ankle limited him to only 365 plate appearances and therefore a 2.5 WAR – again, solid, but nowhere near $18 million dollars of value.

Although it’s feasible that Ordonez could have kept the Tigers in the race – they were only 2.5 back of Chicago and 1.5 behind Minnesota at the time of the injury – the Tigers will at least avoid a second, $15 million vesting option in 2011. Ordonez’s 365 PAs to end the season easily dodged the 540 PA threshold which would have vested the option.

The Tigers still could exercise the option on their own, but there’s no way to rationalize paying a soon-to-be 36 year old slugger coming off a major injury at a 3.5-4 WAR price. Ordonez is therefore certain to hit the free agent market, where a player of his caliber – 6.6 WAR in the last three seasons – will inevitably be coveted somewhere around the league.

Ordonez’s suitors in the NL figure to be limited due to his lack of defensive value, but there should be an AL team willing to add another bat like Ordonez given the pathetic state of the DH position. Not a single team put up a better mark than Ordonez’s .375 wOBA, and only the Orioles (Luke Scott), Red Sox (David Ortiz), Twins (Jim Thome), and Rangers (Vladimir Guerrero) equaled or bettered Ordonez’s +21 run offensive projection from CHONE.

There are three players on last year’s free agent market that strike me as similar to Ordonez: Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero, and Hideki Matsui. If teams still feel that Ordonez is a legitimate right fielder – a possibility given his -7 DRS since 2008 – Abreu’s two year, $19 million deal makes a lot of sense. If he’s relegated to a DH role – a stronger possibility in my opinion, given the injury and a -15 UZR/-19 TZ since 2008 – perhaps a one year, incentive laden deal like those of Guerrero and Matsui will be all the market has for him. If CHONE’s projected value of Ordonez is on, he should look for a roughly $10 million AAV on a new contract in the field and slightly less as a primary DH.

Among teams with ideas of contention, the White Sox and Rays could take a look at Ordonez, and perhaps the Tigers could bring him back on a cheaper deal. Seattle would be a short term fit too, but they likely won’t be competing in 2011 and Ordonez probably doesn’t project as much of a long term investment, unless he’s a trade chip. Unless a team has a log jam at DH and COF, it would be hard to criticize them for bringing Ordonez on board, and at the right price, he could be the bat that vaults a team into the playoffs.

A brief timeline of Coco Crisp the Athletic:

12/23/2009: Signed
5/21/2010: Played in his first regular season game
5/22/2010: Played in his second regular season game
6/22/2010: Played in his third regular season game

Health is a tool and one that Crisp forgot to pack. He did finish with 328 plate appearances on the season and played well when he took the field, easily earning his four million and change on a Wins Above Replacement to dollars conversion. He even earned the option part of the deal, which means the Athletics are playing with house money when they make the decision to either exercise or decline the option.

What should they do? Hard to say. Crisp’s fragility is a legitimate concern, albeit one lessened by the length of the commitment. He has not racked up more than 500 plate appearances in a season since 2007. This particular tidbit will not come into play in 2011, but Crisp has not received 500-plus plate appearances in consecutive seasons since 2004-2005 – back then he wore Cleveland garb. If he can manage 500 plate appearances, then he is probably good for at least two wins, as he’s probably good for a plus defensive performance and a line resembling his 2008-2010 tally of .270/.342/.412.

On the other hand, the Athletics already have Travis Buck, Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, Chris Carter, Conor Jackson, and perhaps Michael Taylor around for next season. Even if you place Carter and Taylor in the minors, dismiss Gabe Gross and Jackson, and throw Buck on the disabled list – it’s bound to happen – that leaves the outfield packed with three defensive-heavy, offensive-light centerfielders. Whether the law of diminishing returns comes into play or not is overblown, but you wonder if the Athletics could benefit a little by diversifying their assets.

The Athletics could always exercise Crisp’s option then look to trade him (or one of the others) which might be the most reasonable route. The free agent center field market is putrid at best and the younger names out there will certainly demand a better return. That makes Crisp something like the most feasible center fielder available, regardless of what the A’s decide.

The Mets are a franchise in turmoil. Despite a lofty payroll, the team hasn’t reached the postseason since 2006. The manager and the general manager were canned following yet another disappointing season. There’s no doubt that the Mets have talented players, but for whatever reasons, be it late season collapses, injuries, or roster mismanagement, they just haven’t been able to put a playoff season together.

Naturally, that means that there’s going to be some speculation about the future of some of the Mets talented veterans, such as shortstop Jose Reyes. The Mets hold an option on Reyes for $11 million dollars this season, which, according to the New York Post, they will pick up.

In that same Post article, the Mets state that they will be working on an extension with Reyes. However, until one is announced, Reyes’s post-2011 fate will be up in the air. Reyes is a question mark now, as he has followed up three 5+ WAR seasons in 2006-2008 with a total of 3.7 WAR in 169 games in 2009-2010. Much of the missed time was from a calf injury suffered in 2009, but thyroid, back, and oblique injuries sent him to the bench on four separate occasions in 2010 as well.

Reyes didn’t play up to his normal standards in 2010, either. He put up a .282/.321/.428 line which, although above average for the league and well above average for the shortstop position, comes in at 14 points of OBP and 6 points of SLG lower than his typical season. The biggest standout in his 2010 statistics is a walk rate of only 5.1%, his lowest since 2005 and the culprit for his relatively low on-base percentage. Reyes also rated poorly by UZR (-5) and TotalZone (-4) and was graded as average by DRS. In Reyes’s three year all-star stretch, fielding was a key component of his value, as he was +19 by both UZR and DRS and even better by TZ and TZL.

With the uncertainty latent in these defensive stats, there’s still a chance that Reyes could be an above-average shortstop. However, given the injuries to both his core and a leg, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his range and mobility were decreased. His bat has never been elite by itself, either, and a sharp decrease in walk rate is worthy of concern, as it is one of the quickest offensive rates to stabilize. For Reyes, it was the sum of his total package of skills that made him an elite player for those three seasons, and the steps back in the two most important facets of the game should be worrisome for those around Queens.

The first order of business for the Mets will be to decide between Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes for their general manager position. The decision of what to do with Jose Reyes will be one of the biggest decisions for whoever wins this job in the coming year. Reyes is a tremendous talent, but with the uncertainty derived from all of his injuries, it’s hard to project him as an all-star going forward. When it comes to an extension, the Mets should be patient and extremely careful before putting all their chips in the pot.

Today I flew into Phoenix, Arizona to spend four days watching Arizona Fall League games. It’s my first experience with the league, filled with offensive prospects, future replacement-level relievers, and stadiums where you could hear a pin drop. The intimacy and inexpensiveness make it a must-see for prospect fans. Today’s game between the Mesa Solar Sox and the Phoenix Desert Dogs did not meet that standard. It wasn’t the best baseball, but it was prospect laden nonetheless. As I’ll do this week, I will run through some notes I made during batting practice, about the pitchers, and then about the position players during the game. Next week, I’ll write more specific reports on these players as I see them more than once.

Batting Practice Thoughts

The best batting practice award goes to Kyle Skipworth, the former sixth-overall pick by the Florida Marlins. Built like a truck (6-foot-4, 205 lbs), Skipworth showed easy plus power, with a slight uppercut swing. It’s not without its holes, and his upright stance probably exposes the low-and-away section of the zone, but when he makes contact the ball goes far. He was the only hitter on both teams to hit an opposite field home run during BP.

The honorable mentions in batting practice are Andrew Lambo and Austin Romine. While they stand at different sides of the plate, both came off as dead pull hitters in BP, but with power. Romine has better bat speed, Lambo has a prettier and smoother swing, both did a nice job.

I wasn’t as impressed with Michael Taylor, the member of the Roy Halladay trade that was subsequently traded to the Oakland A’s. Listed at 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, Taylor’s path to big-league success is with a power bat. But this season, he hit just six home runs. His batting practice revealed why: despite great strength in his legs, Taylor doesn’t use them at all. He barely has a weight transfer, and only uses his upper body to produce power. That’s not going to work.

The other disappointing performance came from Brandon Laird, the Yankees prospect moving from third base to left field in the AFL as the Yankees try to add versatility to his resume. Laird had a good season at the plate, and he has aggressive plus bat speed, but he’s going to have problems with big-league pitching. His swing is the funky kind that big-league pitchers can often take advantage of, specifically a timing mechanism with his front leg. He struggled squaring up balls throughout each round of batting practice.

Quick hits: Brett Jackson and Tony Sanchez hit line drives all over the place, but their level swings should keep power expectations low … Matt Rizzotti has a build unlike any offensive prospect I’ve ever seen, and his swing isn’t good enough to make up for the bad body … Kirk Nieuwenhuis has a great right field body, but his swing has some holes that are easily exposed … Jerry Sands was going opposite field throughout batting practice, and hit a lot of balls with topspin. I believe the .300 batting average more than the 35 home runs. Teammate Trayvon Robinson didn’t have very good bat speed, but showed more power than his ISO from this year would have you believe.

Pitching Thoughts

This will be short. It wasn’t good. Neither starter, Travis Banwart or Jake Muyco, profiles as a Major League pitcher. Both were throwing in the high 80s, and neither had a breaking ball that was even fringe-average. Muyco touched 90, which I didn’t see Banwart do, but they are organizational players. Cory Gearrin was the first out of the pen for Phoenix, and he’s funky enough to stumble into Major League success. A true sidearmer, Gearrin has a plus frisbee slider that should be enough to get big league right-handed hitters out. But he needs better command with his 85-88 mph fastball than he showed today.

Both Ryan Brasier (Angels) and B.J. Rosenberg (Phillies) pitched in the low 90s, maybe touching 94 mph. Rosenberg was probably a little more impressive, with a big over-the-top delivery and a slider that he spots low and away to righties. He’s been injured for much of his career, and is still a long shot, but even that was noteworthy today.

Position Player Game Thoughts

If anything stands out from today, it’s that Austin Romine is not the polished defender that Yankees fans hope. Romine is actually a bit of a mess defensively, allowing three balls to the backstop that shouldn’t have been throughout the day. On one occasion, the ball went back because Romine was more worried about showing off his plus arm to the scouts, with the runner on first stealing second. Maybe it was Romine’s incompetence, but I liked Tony Sanchez‘ defense on the other side. He’s slighter and more athletic than I was led to believe, and he stopped a couple sliders in the dirt.

Tyler Pastornicky showed good actions and enough arm at shortstop during infield practice before the game, but had a rough day at shortstop. He probably is indeed a second baseman. Jerry Sands is a tough read defensively, but he looks adept at scooping balls out of the dirt, just maybe not at going into the hole well. He could be a good first baseman, but I struggle to believe he could work in the outfield.

Offensively, the ball jumped off the bats of Austin Romine, Brett Jackson and Trayvon Robinson especially, though the latter was the only one who actually homered. Romine’s power grades out the best, as he hit a ball that he didn’t square up perfectly off the top of the wall in right center, about 400 feet in all. I also saw Josh Vitters walk today. A unique day, indeed.

Congratulations on the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants on their upcoming World Series matchup. While part of me regrets the lost opportunity for obnoxious snark during a Bruce Bochy/Joe Girardi intentional walk-fest (preferably set to “Dueling Banjos”), I’m sure that Bochy will find Ron Washington a worthy foe. However, while I had originally thought I would “go off” a bit on the topic of the Rangers’ lead-off spot, the more I thought about it the less vehement I felt.

I agree that Elvis Andrus is a talented young player who is at worst a good defensive shortstop, and given his age (Andrus just turned 22 in August) he can be expected to get better with the bat. However, while Andrus’s defensive abilities make him a good player overall, he’s not a good hitter a the moment. Yes, his .342 on-base percentage during the past regular season is above-average, but with wOBA now easily available we don’t have to go through any sort of gymnastics in terms of weighing OBP and SLG. Andrus’s wOBA this season was .298 (81 wRC+). To put that into perspective, Yuniesky Betancourt’s 2010 wOBA was .300 (84 wRC+). ‘Nuff said? Yes, Andrus has a .357 wOBA in 57 plate appearances this post-season, but I assume that FanGraphs readers don’t need to be lectured about the “usefulness” of a 57 PA sample or about the predictive “power” of hot streaks.

Of course, 2010 is not all there is to Andrus. He was better in 2009 with a .322 wOBA, and given his age, his minor league performances, and the other factors that go into making an estimate of his current true talent (a ‘projection’), CHONE’s August update sees him as a .321 wOBA (my rough wOBA calculation based on CHONE’s projected stat line) hitter in his run environment — just below average before adjusting for the hitter-friendly park. That’s a good number for a defensively-skilled shortstop, and promising given his age.

However, when setting a batting order, a player’s defensive skill-set is irrelevant. The issue isn’t whether Andrus should start, but whether he should be hitting first. Despite talk of “true lead-off hitters” and “ideal number 3 hitters” and so on, the implicit lesson of The Book’s chapter on lineup optimization (summarized here) is that where a player should hit in the batting order is relative to the other players on the team. The best hitters on the team should get the most PA, and thus should hit in the top half of the order. Ideally, the best three hitters should hit in the first, second, and fourth spots (sometimes adjustments need to be made for platoon issues, e.g., trying to avoid two lefties in a row), the next best two should hit third and fifth, and from the sixth spot on down simply go in order of projected ability.

Is Andrus one of Texas’ five best hitters? According to CHONE’s update, not only Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, but also Mitch Moreland, Jorge Cantu and David Murphy are all better hitters than Andrus. Without revising the entire lineup, the simplest move would be to put Ian Kinsler into the first spot and put Andrus further down in the order. Kinsler not only has a better on-base percentage, but also more extra-base power. He probably doesn’t have as much speed as Andrus at this point, but speed at the top of the order is overrated when hitting in front of Michael Young (still a good hitter) and especially Josh Hamilton. Those guys don’t need much help from runner who can steal second for them. Andrus’s ability to steal (although it’s worth noting that he wasn’t as successful in 2010 as 2009) would be better leveraged in front of bad hitters more likely to need help from a guy who can move himself over. All those particular issues aside, the Rangers would simply be better off giving more chances at the plate to a hitter with a projected wOBA of .357 (Kinsler) than one projected at .321 (Andrus).

It’s worth remembering that over a full season, the difference between a typical lineup and an optimized lineup is probably only between 5 and 15 runs. Even the worst single move imaginable, like hitting the pitcher cleanup the whole season, only costs about 15 runs worse. That’s why I can’t get too worked about the issue. However, a team needs to get every edge it can, even in a short series of games, especially this Series.