Archive for November, 2010

Predicting a Team’s Wins Using Underlying Player Talent

I have been wanting to have this win prediction tool available for a while and finally have what I think is rather simple working model. This spreadsheet can be filled out with the players anyone thinks will be playing, along with their all their stats and then the team’s projected wins will be calculated.

Note: An error was found on the spreadsheet dealing with position adjustment and corrected around 4:30 EST on 11/4. If you downloaded it before then, you will need to re-download it. Sorry for the inconvenience. -Jeff

While it can be used to get an idea of how many wins a team might get in the up coming season, I plan on using it to evaluate changes in a team. Those changes could be a free agent signing, a trade, an injury or a rookie called up to the majors. The team’s expect wins before or after the roster change can be evaluated .

Today, I am not going to do look at any team. I just wanted to make it available and once the Royals sign Cliff Lee, I can see how their expected wins compare before and after the acquisition.

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Offseason Notes, The Sophomore Effort Of

Welcome to your density, America.

I mean, your destiny.

SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more on SCOUT, the metric that’s “sweeping” the “nation.”)

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What Do The Yankees Do If They Don’t Get Cliff Lee?

The overwhelming expectation is that Cliff Lee will end up as a Yankee. They have the resources to pay him more than anyone else, the need for him in their rotation, and they expressed heavy interest in acquiring him in July, even going so far as to include Jesus Montero in their offer. It is no secret that they plan to offer him a lot of money to come to New York.

What if he doesn’t take it?

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Contract Crowdsourcing Results: Cliff Lee

Well, the market might be expecting inflation, but it doesn’t seem like FanGraphs readers are. The results for Cliff Lee’s contract estimate is in, and it’s quite a bit lower than I expected.

Average length: 5.37 years
Average salary: $20.73 million

Median length: 5 years
Median salary: $21 million

Standard deviation, length: 0.84 years
Standard deviation, salary: $2.84 million

$105 million over five years is a lot of money, no doubt. Only CC Sabathia and Johan Santana would make more per season among starting pitchers, and both signed their deals with New York teams before the economic downturn took hold. But, still, it seems light for the best player on the market, especially when the Yankees are known to be among his most serious suitors.

A year ago, John Lackey got $83 million over five years from the Red Sox, without the Yankees being very involved in the bidding. Is Cliff Lee, who has put up +20.8 WAR over the last three years, really only worth a 20 percent premium over Lackey, who had put up 11.8 WAR in the three years preceding his free agency?

I’m just speculating here, since we didn’t have a box indicating which team you thought he was going to sign with, but I’m guessing that there’s a decent block of voters who are expecting Lee to spurn the Yankees, and they submitted lower figures to account for him signing with Texas or another club without unlimited financial resources. If you took the Yankees out of the picture, then I could see 5/105 as a realistic figure for what he might get from the Rangers.

I’d be shocked if he wasn’t offered more than that by New York, though. In the end, I’m guessing whoever lands him will have to pony up more than this expectation. I’d guess he’ll end up somewhere closer to $140 million over six years. $105 million over five would be a relative bargain.


The Dodgers’ Desire for Podsednik

Yesterday, the Los Angeles Dodgers reportedly excercised their half of a mutual option with left fielder Scott Podsednik. Podsednik came over in a trade from the Kansas City Royals, who signed him last winter to a contract that included a two million dollar club option for 2011 that became effectively mutual when Podsenik reached his 525 plate appearance in 2010.

After three miserable seasons from 2006 to 2008, Podsednik seemed like he was ready to be out of baseball, but a 1.8 WAR revival in Chicago in 2009 put him back on the map. Although he he wasn’t able to repeat his .338 2009 wOBA performance, his .323 wOBA for the 2009 season was about league average in a deflated run environment. CHONE’s last update saw Posednik as a 5 runs below average per 150 games true-talent hitter. His ability in the field is more difficult to pin down. Both versions of TotalZone are fairly friendly to Podsednik’s skills in left field, and CHONE projects him at +6 there. However, both UZR and DRS have seen Podsednik less positively, especially in 2010, when he was more than 10 runs below average. The Fans Scouting Report for 2010 splits the difference, seeing him as an average fielder in left.

The positional adjustment is -7.5 for being a left fielder. Let’s call his offense -3, plus average defense. Overall we’d say he’s around a 1 WAR player. There’s some attrition for age (and he did have a foot injury at the end of the season), but given the uncertainty about his fielding ability, I think 0.5 to 1.5 WAR is a fair range, so 1 WAR over a full season seems about right. The price of a marginal win for 2011 will probably be at least four million dollars, and probably more, so this seems like a good decision on the Dodgers’ part.

A one-win player is generally a bench or platoon player, or a stopgap at best. Despite the Dodgers’ disappointing performance in 2010, they should be in the mix in the National League West again in 2010. Given the money they put out for Ted Lilly despite a muddled ownership situation, that seems to be be the plan. So this isn’t like a rebuilding team blowing money on a veteran.

There are some other issues to consider. For this to really be a “good” deal for LA, Podsednik needs to play pretty much the whole season. He hasn’t played 150 games since 2004. That issue aside, it’s one thing to have a 1 WAR player as a bench/platoon guy, and other to have him as an everyday player when trying to win a division title. Even as a part-timer, Podsednik’s utility is limited — he doesn’t have the arm to play right field, and while he is fast, his poor routes limit his effective range in the outfield, so he’s really a left-field-only player outside of emergencies. Given Matt Kemp’s own issues in center field, Podsednik isn’t an ideal fourth outfielder for them, given the current roster. Podsednik is not really good enough to start, but also doesn’t truly fit LA’s bench needs. The Dodgers need to keep their eyes open for better options.

That said, the free-agent market for outfielders is pretty thin, and it is unlikely that the Dodgers have the money to be in on players like Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Given the Dodgers’ current hole in left field and their potential to contend, picking up Podsednik’s option as a safety net isn’t a terrible idea as long as he isn’t Plan A. As for Podsednik, while he has proved he can still be a bit useful in the right situation, he shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth.


Offseason Notes, The Highly Anticipated Debut Of

You are walking down the red carpet of life right now, America.

A Note on the “Notes”
I can’t say for sure how it’s happened — I’m guessing my heroic jawline has played no small part in it — but I, Carson Cistulli, am currently the sort of person who gets paid to write about sports. All in all, it’s not that unique a thing. Walk over any hill and down into any dale and you’ll find a community paper with a local sportswriter. Indeed, some papers employ two or five or more of them. (The Boston Globe, ever the picture of journalistic innovation, goes so far as to give a bit of space everyday to a spoilt, curly haired child.) Furthermore, that glistening series of tubes known as the internet has its fair share of content in re sport.

However ubiquitous sportwriters are, I spend almost all of my time actively excited to be one of them. But there’s a thing I’ve observed about many of them — these sportswriters, that is — and which, as Shakespeare would say, “totally bums me out.” Namely, they don’t seem to enjoy themselves too much. This idea — i.e. the general unhappiness of the sporting journalist — is one of the central themes of Will Leitch’s God Save the Fan. Nor is it difficult to find evidence of. Like, look at this article to which Tom Tango recently linked about golf’s computer rankings. Its author, David Lariviere — who I’m sure is a fine person — is quite upset about them. And look at all the attention Kevin Garnett’s comments about Charlie Villanueva have received from the press. How is that designed to celebrate the magic of human potential?

Even when they’re not angry per se, many sportswriters are unnaturally beholden to “current events” and “facts,” are in a rush to construct “strong opinions” or “takes.” In short, they (i.e. the sportswriters) appear bent on making their jobs appear as difficult and unpleasant as everyone else’s.

It’s a worldview — this tendency towards “duty,” I mean — constructed originally by people wearing buckle hats and exemplified by Yeats in his poem “Adam’s Curse.” For it’s in said poem that we find these lines:

We sat together at one summer’s end,
That beautiful mild woman, your close friend,
And you and I, and talked of poetry.
I said, “A line will take us hours maybe;
Yet if it does not seem a moment’s thought,
Our stitching and unstitching has been naught
Better go down upon your marrow-bones
And scrub a kitchen pavement, or break stones
Like an old pauper, in all kinds of weather;
For to articulate sweet sounds together
Is to work harder than all these, and yet
Be thought an idler by the noisy set
Of bankers, schoolmasters, and clergymen
The martyrs call the world.”

I remember discussing those lines as an undergraduate, and remember, too, the instructor saying, “Yeats is right: if you want to be a great poet, you have to work real hard.” I remember, at the time, feeling rather dismayed by that notion, and am resolute in my opinion now that such an idea is ridiculous — is, in fact, dangerous.

Writing is not as hard as scrubbing a kitchen or breaking stones, regardless of the weather. I, personally, have tried manual labor, have had summer jobs that involved cleaning up all manner of organic waste, and have thoroughly detested them.

Of course, that’s not the case for everyone. I’ve certainly met people — people who I’m almost positive have not experienced any sort of serious brain trauma — who say they like physical labor. That’s fine. The point is that, in order not to die, most people must work. In most cases, these same people would prefer not to work — or, at least, to work less.

But for the sportswriter, it’s different. He is, essentially, a correspondent, reporting back to everyone from the front lines of joy. Or he should be. And anything less than that should be considered failure.

When I think of the Platonic Sportswriter I like to imagine him in a cherry- or mahogany-paneled room, drinking expensive ports, and surrounded by busts of Great Men. I want him to be a master of leisure, this Sportswriter, totally at the whim of his curiosity. And I want all of this to be evident in his prose.

In any case, that’s what these Notes are intended to be: a (mostly) daily report on all the ways we might enjoy the offseason. As you read them, imagine that I have a glass of port in my hand.

And also that I’m wearing an eye patch, too. Just for fun.

SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
Yesterday, I introduced a method by which we might use winter-league samples in a responsible way. As I said then — and am willing to repeat ad infinitum — the resulting metric, SCOUT, is not intended to replace the valuable contributions of scouting. Rather, it’s designed to look at metrics which become reliable more quickly than slash stats.

Here are the current batting leaders in the Arizona Fall Leagues, per SCOUT:

SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard
Using the same method as for batters, I’ve also devised a SCOUT for pitchers. One thing about that: while strikeouts becomes reliable pretty quickly (150 batters faced), walks don’t so much (550 BFs). I’ve included the latter for now, however.

Here are the current pitching leaders in the Arizona Fall Leagues, per SCOUT:

Bryce Harper Watch
Bryce Harper was dormant yesterday.


Fans Scouting Report, Part 2

Following up David’s announcement, let me give you the lowdown on a project that is near and dear to my heart. You know how saberists and statheads are accused of being all about the numbers, and ignoring the human component? This project is the antithesis of that. This is all about the human component.

The idea behind it goes all the way back to the mid-1980s when Bill James in his Baseball Abstracts asked his fans to rate each player by position, 1-30. He compiled their results, and it became the rankings in at least one of his annuals. I was sick and tired of how the media would tell us the fans about how good and bad newly-traded fielders were, when invariably, what they said did not matchup to reality. Really, Kaz Matsui was such a good-fielding shortstop that he could displace the young Jose Reyes? I believed that stuff each time, even though we kept getting confirmation that it wasn’t true.

Put the two things together (James’ crowdsourcing plus distrust of media’s objectivity), and you get The Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans, of which I’ve ran it for the last eight years. I can’t tell you how incredibly insightful you guys are. Well, individually, you aren’t. Indeed, individually, you are as useless as I am, and any other individual. That’s just the way it is. The power is when you get just a few of you guys together. That coalescing is where the real brains of the operations lie. All I do is provide the brawns to bring you guys together under one voice (and remove any obvious party-crashers).

The end result is that you have a bunch of Giants fans evaluate Giants players, and a bunch of Rangers fans evaluate Rangers players, and if a Giants fan is interested in the fielding talent traits of Elvis Andus or Vladimir Guerrero, all he has to do is ask 20 or 50 Rangers fans. He does that asking simply by looking at the results of the Fans Scouting Report.

And, the power of crowdsourcing is really making waves. A few years ago, just days before Opening Day, I started collecting your views on the depth chart of your team (expected games played, expected innings). Once again, rather than try to aggregate from 30 media sources on the latest depth for the 30 teams, I instead pooled the power you guys provide. And you continue to impress me with how much, collectively, you know. Fangraphs last year expanded on that idea even more, by including forecasts of performance as well.

I’ve done here-and-there crowdsourcing on contracts. And Fangraphs has really expanded on that idea too this year. I’ve crowdsourced for favorite movies, most outstanding players, among other things. Really, there is so much that, individually, I would never listen to any single person (myself included, because, after all, who am I?), but that collectively, it trumps anything and everyone out there. It seems like a paradox.

Anyway, so here we are. I’ve provided to Fangraphs the results for the 2009 and 2010 seasons, and am working on preparing the other six seasons back to 2003. There are seven traits that the fans are asked to evaluate, on the idea of capturing the entire spectrum of fielding talents on display (from crack of bat, to last out). Furthermore, by focusing on the particulars, it removes from the fan the impulse to give an overall evaluation. When I compile it, I weight them a certain way to give that overall evaluation. The end-result is a score from 0-100, with 50 as the average. One standard deviation is 20, meaning that for each trait, 16% of the players will exceed a score of 70, and the same number will be worse than 30. Furthermore, I convert those scores to runs, so they are directly comparable to MGL’s UZR and Dewan’s plus/minus.

The pinnacle of sabermetrics is the convergence of performance analysis and scouting observations. And I think that the voice you guys provide, as a group, is part of that convergence.


Crowdsourcing Japan’s 2011 Foreign Players

Last year, I took a shot at predicting which players would sign contracts to play in Japan. I got five right, including Matt Murton, whose inclusion was inspired by Dave Cameron’s 2009 article espousing his virtues.

This autumn, I have again come up with list of players I think could play in Japan next year. But before I reveal it, I’d like to ask for your suggestions. Every die-hard baseball fan has a favorite hardworking minor league veteran who has nothing left to prove in 3A, but for some reason can’t seem to stick at the MLB level. Japan is a good option for these types of players, as a first-year foreign player typically makes $400k-$1m, and it’s a chance to play in a competitive league in front of large crowds. I want to hear who you think should get a shot. The only rule for suggestions is that you don’t submit your favorite over-priced, under-performing MLB players.

Every year, Japanese teams employ 65-75 foreign players. For a number of reasons, there is a lot of turnover from year to year, which means there are always at least a few opportunities available. Here’s a look at what’s on the collective NPB shopping list for this season, based on my analysis:

* 6-7 starting pitchers

* 7-8 relief pitchers

* 2-3 1B/LF/DH types

* 2 third basemen

* an outfielder or two

* a utility guy

* and possibly a 2B/3B type for Yomiuri

This is my ballpark estimate; we could see some fluctuation and we will probably see a few surprises.

And with that, I’d like to turn over the floor to you.


FanGraphs Chat – 10/3/10


A Primer on the Baseball Winter Meetings

Poll a hundred baseball fans on what the Baseball Winter Meetings are all about, and you’re likely to get a hundred different answers. Most are likely to say that it’s where trades or signings take place, but after that, it gets vague.”Am I allowed to go?” “Is it in the same location?” “Is it free?” “What else goes on besides MLB’s doings?”

Here’s a primer.

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