2011 Umpire Projections

An umpire is not supposed to have any influence on any game, but many times they do, especially the home plate umpire calling balls and strikes. Even though the strike zone is supposed to uniform across the league, each umpire has their own unique strike zone. I have gone back over the past 3 years and projected how pitcher or hitter friendly each umpire will be for the up coming season.

First, I went back and took the 2007 to 2009 data and looked to see how much to weight each year’s data to project the known 2010 data. I proved common sense and an even 1/3 weighting of each year as the best predictor. Along with the weighting, I also regressed each umpire to the league average. Finally, I took the 2008 to 2010 values and created a projection for how far the umpire’s zone differs from the league average. The complete list is at the end of the article.

Besides the actual values, here is a look at how pitcher-friendly umpire Brian Runge’s and hitter-friendly umpire Jerry Crawford’s strike zones compare using heat maps for both right- and left-handed pitchers.

The image is from the catcher’s and umpire’s perspective, the box being the rule book strike zone and the circle is used just for reference. The scale on the right is the percent, in decimal format, of pitches called strikes. The data is for all pitches from 2008 to 2010.

LHP
Brian Runge

Jerry Crawford

RHP
Brian Runge

Jerry Crawford

Their differences aren’t huge, but if you look at the green zone, the 50-50 line, Runge expands the zone out a bit. So, if during this season you feel an umpire is squeezing your favorite pitcher a bit, look to see if it’s the umpire’s normal tendency to have a small zone. If not, he may just hate your team.

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List of umpires by how much they are pitcher (positive % Difference compared to Mean) or hitter (negative % Difference compared to Mean) friendly.

Columns are as follows:
Name – The name their mother calls them, not “You Dirty Bum” – we try to keep it P.G. around here.
% of Called Strikes in Strike Zone – Percentage of pitches in the rule book strike zone called strikes.
% Difference compared to Mean – % of how much larger the individual umpire’s strike zone is compared to the league average.
Reliability – How much of the umpire’s projection is from their own values. The rest is how much regression is added in. For example David Rackley’s has a reliability of 0.70, so 70% of the projection is based on pitches he called and 30% is the regression amount.

Name	% of Called Strikes in Strike Zone	% Difference compared to Mean	Reliability
Rackley, David	25.9%	-6.6%	0.70
Larson, Barry	25.9%	-6.5%	0.26
Tumpane, John	27.7%	-4.0%	0.66
Crawford, Jerry	27.8%	-3.8%	0.96
Bakke, Chris	27.9%	-3.7%	0.30
Merry, Jon	28.4%	-3.0%	0.54
Loveless, Eric	28.5%	-2.8%	0.27
Tiller, Chris	28.7%	-2.5%	0.82
Schrieber, Paul	28.8%	-2.5%	0.97
Barrett, Lance	28.8%	-2.4%	0.31
Hohn, Bill	28.8%	-2.4%	0.97
Conroy, Chris	29.1%	-1.9%	0.40
Johnson, Adrian	29.2%	-1.9%	0.98
Hickox, Ed	29.2%	-1.8%	0.96
Campos, Angel	29.6%	-1.3%	0.97
Cousins, Derryl	29.6%	-1.2%	0.98
Rapuano, Ed	29.6%	-1.2%	0.98
McClelland, Tim	29.7%	-1.1%	0.98
Davis, Gerry	29.7%	-1.1%	0.97
Tschida, Tim	29.8%	-1.0%	0.97
Layne, Jerry	29.8%	-1.0%	0.97
Danley, Kerwin	29.8%	-1.0%	0.96
Marquez, Alfonso	29.8%	-1.0%	0.96
Gibson, Greg	29.9%	-0.9%	0.97
Barry, Scott	29.9%	-0.8%	0.97
Tichenor, Todd	30.0%	-0.7%	0.97
Hoye, James	30.0%	-0.6%	0.98
Knight, Brian	30.0%	-0.6%	0.97
Fletcher, Andy	30.1%	-0.6%	0.97
Carapazza, Vic	30.1%	-0.5%	0.75
Reyburn, D.J.	30.2%	-0.4%	0.93
Fairchild, Chad	30.2%	-0.4%	0.97
Wegner, Mark	30.2%	-0.3%	0.97
Welke, Tim	30.2%	-0.3%	0.97
Iassogna, Dan	30.3%	-0.3%	0.97
Uyl, David	30.3%	-0.3%	0.96
Muchlinski, Mike	30.3%	-0.3%	0.93
Beal, Damien	30.3%	-0.3%	0.85
Wendelstedt, Hunter	30.3%	-0.2%	0.97
Joyce, Jim	30.3%	-0.2%	0.97
Reilly, Mike	30.3%	-0.2%	0.96
Dreckman, Bruce	30.4%	-0.2%	0.97
Scott, Dale	30.4%	-0.2%	0.97
Guccione, Chris	30.4%	-0.1%	0.97
Hallion, Tom	30.4%	-0.1%	0.97
Bell, Wally	30.4%	-0.1%	0.98
Welke, Bill	30.4%	-0.1%	0.97
Fagan, Clint	30.4%	-0.1%	0.25
Estabrook, Mike	30.4%	0.0%	0.97
Holbrook, Sam	30.5%	0.1%	0.97
Carlson, Mark	30.6%	0.1%	0.96
Winters, Mike	30.6%	0.2%	0.97
Meals, Jerry	30.6%	0.2%	0.98
Foster, Marty	30.7%	0.3%	0.97
DeMuth, Dana	30.7%	0.3%	0.97
Blaser, Cory	30.7%	0.4%	0.51
Everitt, Mike	30.7%	0.4%	0.98
Hudson, Marvin	30.7%	0.4%	0.97
Kellogg, Jeff	30.7%	0.4%	0.97
Cederstrom, Gary	30.7%	0.4%	0.97
Culbreth, Fieldin	30.8%	0.4%	0.98
Kulpa, Ron	30.8%	0.4%	0.97
Robinson, Will	30.8%	0.5%	0.96
Bucknor, CB	30.8%	0.5%	0.98
Barksdale, Lance	30.8%	0.5%	0.97
Porter, Alan	30.8%	0.5%	0.79
Darling, Gary	30.8%	0.5%	0.97
Barrett, Ted	30.9%	0.6%	0.97
Timmons, Tim	30.9%	0.6%	0.97
West, Joe	30.9%	0.6%	0.98
Wolf, Jim	30.9%	0.6%	0.97
Reynolds, Jim	30.9%	0.7%	0.97
Hernandez, Angel	30.9%	0.7%	0.97
Vanover, Larry	31.0%	0.7%	0.92
Nelson, Jeff	31.0%	0.7%	0.97
Gonzalez, Manny	31.0%	0.8%	0.96
Drake, Rob	31.0%	0.8%	0.98
Davidson, Bob	31.1%	0.8%	0.97
Nauert, Paul	31.1%	0.9%	0.97
DiMuro, Mike	31.3%	1.2%	0.97
Diaz, Laz	31.3%	1.2%	0.97
Cuzzi, Phil	31.4%	1.4%	0.97
Bellino, Dan	31.5%	1.4%	0.93
O’Nora, Brian	31.5%	1.4%	0.97
Hirschbeck, John	31.6%	1.7%	0.95
Eddings, Doug	31.7%	1.8%	0.97
Emmel, Paul	31.8%	1.9%	0.97
Randazzo, Tony	32.1%	2.3%	0.96
Gorman, Brian	32.1%	2.3%	0.93
Cooper, Eric	32.1%	2.4%	0.97
Ripperger, Mark	32.2%	2.4%	0.53
Miller, Bill	32.3%	2.6%	0.98
Runge, Brian	32.9%	3.5%	0.89