Archive for February, 2011

Your Dream Place for Spring Training

Overall, I enjoy Spring Training. Still, there are parts about the whole event that I dislike. Aspects such as heightened speculation over insignificant bench roles, discussions about offseason workouts and people taking small samples too seriously are almost a rite of passage now. Something to be endured before baseball can begin again in earnest. I could do without those parts.

Those are mostly outweighed however, by the good bits. Baseball returning at least in spirit for one and despite the many fluff pieces, there is a growing amount of actual news to digest. Spring Training is also a chance to travel to usually warm destinations, see something resembling baseball for slightly cheaper than normal and have greater access to players and staff than you would have at a regular Major League game.

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Winner(s), Question #5, Second Opinion Game

This morning, I posed to the readership the fifth and final player-profile question ahead of the release of this year’s Second Opinion.

Unlike the previous four, this question required the reader not to submit the correct answer before all other readers, but to (a) submit the correct answer and then (b) also submit a worthy epithet for said mystery player.

The answers were many and varied — and greatly enjoyed (with one notable exception!!!) by this author. In fact, owing the enthusiastic response and great efforts of the commentariat, I’ve decided to supplement the Dark Overlord’s offer of one free copy of the Second Opinion with two more copies.

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The Top 10 Prospects… The First 20 in Review

In case you’ve missed the Top 10 lists so far, here they are. Click the team names for the scouting reports/profiles.

30. The Chicago White Sox
29. The Houston Astros
28. The Detroit Tigers
27. The New York Mets
26. The San Diego Padres (Pre-Boston Trade)
25. The Florida Marlins
24. The Milwaukee Brewers (Pre-Kansas City Trade)
23. The Baltimore Orioles
22. The St. Louis Cardinals
21. The Oakland Athletics

20. The San Francisco Giants
19. The Chicago Cubs
18. The Washington Nationals
17. The Los Angeles Dodgers
16. The Seattle Mariners
15. The Minnesota Twins
14. The Colorado Rockies
13. The Pittsburgh Pirates
12. The Cleveland Indians
11. The Boston Red Sox


Second Base Central

Second basemen tend to be overlooked. Chase Utley’s relatively low profile despite arguably being the best non-Pujols position player in baseball for the past half-decade is just one glaring example. Maybe it’s because it isn’t a star-studded position in general, because the defensive standouts at shortstop get more attenion, or because of the superior hitters on the infield corners. What this means for FanGraphs is that the number Fan Projections for second basemen tend to be relatively low, especially for the players on the lower end of expectations. So let’s take a look at some second base candidates from the teams of the (equally overlooked) American League Central and see how you think they will do in 2010.

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Concussion Injury Information

With two of the game’s better players, Justin Morneau and Jason Bay, spending considerable time on the DL last year because of concussions, I decided to take a look at how concussions have been reported and the possible effects head injuries might have on player performance. Thanks to the hard work of Matthew Grosdidier, who compiled most of the data, we have some interesting numbers to look at on head-related trauma.

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Picking On Pence

A couple weeks back, the Astros made the unusual announcement that they would definitively be going to an arbitration hearing with Hunter Pence. This was unusual, because generally team execs like to leave things open-ended. But sometimes, when you know you have the advantage, you choose pistols at dawn. And in their case with Pence, the Astros clearly have the advantage.

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Could Jose Bautista Be Better in 2011?

Since Jose Bautista signed his shiny new contract with the Blue Jays on Wednesday, it has been a popular task to look for players who had comparable power spikes out of nowhere and look at how the rest of their careers unfolded. With legitimate reason, Bautista has been compared to Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzalez, Rich Aurilia, and Carlos Pena, and his 2010 season does bear some resemblance to their breakout seasons.

But there is an area where Bautista’s season is remarkably different from those four, and almost every other hitter who had a monster season hitting balls over the wall. That difference leads me to wonder if we’re underestimating the chance that Jose Bautista could actually get better.

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The Worst Hitter in Baseball History

So often in our baseball debates we’re searching for the best something: The best hitter of the 80s, the best pitcher of the pre-WWII era, etc. Yet rare is the occasion where we search out the worst player in a particular category or era. Sometimes that player jumps out at us and makes us notice; it’s the only reason that anyone knows Neifi Perez’s name. But unless it is blatantly obvious the worst player often goes ignored. Until I ran a random Play Index search last week, I had never heard the name Bill Bergen, the man you see to your right. Now that I’ve found him, though, I’m confident that he is the worst hitter in baseball history.

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Second Opinion Player-Profile Game, Question #5

Note: The 1:30pm ET deadline has passed. All submissions time-stamped at 1:30pm and before will be considered for the 2011 Second Opinion. Those after the deadline will still be considered in the heart of this author.

A winner will be announced this afternoon. Thanks, everyone!

As announced recently, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion.

In the meantime, we’re playing the player-profile game that I intoduced in these pages last offseason.

The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.

***

Today’s question must be answered in two parts, as follow. In your reply in the comment section below, please include:

1. The name of the player in question.

2. What you consider to be the most appropriate epithet for said player. Homer, for example, mostly only ever refers to the “wine-dark sea” or “loud-thundering Zeus” or “Achilles, breaker of men.”* What ought to be this player’s epithet?

*More awesome Homeric epithets here.

To win, you must provide the correct name and also the sweetest epithet.

The submission window runs until 1:30pm ET. Limit one entry per person. Winner receives free access to the 2011 Second Opinion.

Note: The 1:30pm ET deadline has passed. All submissions time-stamped at 1:30pm and before will be considered for the 2011 Second Opinion. Those after the deadline will still be considered in the heart of this author.

A winner will be announced this afternoon. Thanks, everyone!

Can you catch a rainbow and put it in your pocket? Can you snatch a butterfly out of the sky, and say to it, “Hey, stop being a butterfly for a moment will you”? No! Such is the [BLANK]… Even for those who weren’t necessarily swept up by [BLANK] Fever, it’s hard to deny the righty’s accomplishments in 2010. In his first season back from Japan, [BLANK] surprised almost every baseball pundit by throwing 200-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Nor was it smoke and mirrors: [BLANK’S] xFIP (3.93) and FIP (3.55) suggest that the ERA is real. While [HIS TEAM’S] offense wasn’t necessarily a juggernaut (sixth in the AL by park-adjusted batting runs), [BLANK’S] 12-13 record was undeservedly poor. Come 2011, there’s every reason to expect a similar performance from [BLANK]. For fantasy owners, the major difference will be perception: [BLANK] entered 2010 a virtual unknown; he enters 2011 as a pitcher with a 1.71 ERA in four high-profile postseason starts.


When 27 is Old

Only three springs ago, Scott Kazmir was the ace of an up-and-coming Tampa Bay Rays staff. Just a few years prior, Kazmir formed the punchline of Jim Duquette’s general managerial career, with the former executive forking over the young stud for the paltry cost of one Victor Zambrano. Even though the franchise was young, there were two clear faces for the newly de-deviled Rays: Carl Crawford at the plate and in left field, and Kazmir as the ace of the staff. Over the three years prior, Kazmir had broken out as one of the top pitchers in the game, racking up 13 Wins Above Replacement during his ascension.

Now, fast forward. The Rays fulfill their status as up-and-comers with an AL championship, but Kazmir’s role is somewhat muted due to injuries and an ineffective changeup. Pitchers like Matt Garza and James Shields take over the staff, and Kazmir is jettisoned during to the Angels during a 2009 season that can now be described as a recharge for Tampa Bay. In 2010, the Rays return to the top of the AL East while Kazmir languishes at the bottom of the Angels rotation, “producing” 0.8 wins below replacement with everything in his repertoire seemingly down the toilet. Remember ace Scott Kazmir of Tampa Bay? Seems like ages ago.

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