Archive for February, 2011

Converting GO/AO to GB%

Because pitcher ground-ball percentages (GB%) are available at FanGraphs and because they strip away the influence of the defense behind a pitcher, they are (to the best of this author’s knowledge) the best available means of adjudging a pitcher’s ground-ball “profile.”

That said, ground-out/air-out ratios (GO/AO) are still more widely available than pure ground-ball percentages — and are, for example, the only grounder-related number Major League Baseball publishes at its site. So it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that one could find himself in such a situation as he had access to the one (i.e. GO/AOs) and not the other (GB%s)*.

*In press boxes, for example, stat sheets featuring GO/AO — but NOT GB% — are frequently available.

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19th Century PEDs and Andy Pettitte’s HOF Case

Today, Gary Sheffield retired. Following Andy Pettitte’s retirement earlier this offseason, that makes two players on the Hall of Fame bubble who were named in the Mitchell Report and admitted to using Performance-Enhancing Drugs — “the cream” in Sheffield’s case, and Human Growth Hormone in Pettitte’s case. Shortly after Sheffield’s announcement, Dave Cameron argued that his drug admission will keep him out of Cooperstown, writing that his stats are fine, but they’re not very different from a number of his peers in the era, and when you combine that with the drug use, “It is hard to see Sheffield gettting elected.” Dave may be right, but Bill James has argued precisely the opposite: “It is my opinion that, in time, the use of steroids or other Performance Enhancing Drugs will mean virtually nothing in the debate about who gets into the Hall of Fame and who does not.” It’s hard to know exactly how voters will regard drug use in the future, because we really don’t have any rational standard for how to deal with players who have used Performance-Enhancing Drugs. We need a working standard. Fortunately, a couple of pitchers from the 19th century give us a good place to start.

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Rickie Weeks, Mystery Man

Apparently, February 16th was International Sign Your Breakout Star And Hope It Wasn’t A Fluke Day. Before the news broke that Jose Bautista cashed in on his power surge with the Blue Jays, the Milwaukee Brewers signed Rickie Weeks to a four-year, $38.5 million contract with an option that could up the deal to five years and $50 million.

Unlike the Jays, the Brewers aren’t gambling on a guy with questions about his ability to hit. Instead, they’ve decided to bet big on a guy with an entirely different problem.

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Is Gary Sheffield A Hall Of Famer?

After being forcibly retired against his will, Gary Sheffield made it official today – he’s done playing baseball. And, now that he’s filed his papers, the clock has started ticking on his five year waiting period before he becomes eligible for election to the Hall Of Fame. According to The New York Post, Sheffield certainly feels like he belongs in Cooperstown:

“I am sure it will be mentioned and debated but from my standpoint I know who is in the Hall of Fame,” Sheffield told The Post. “A lot of them don’t belong in the Hall of Fame. If someone wants to debate me, check the stats.”

Checking the stats is something we’re particularly good at, so let’s take him up on his offer. By the numbers, is Sheffield a Hall Of Famer?

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Second Opinion Player-Profile Game, Question #4

Note: Tomorrow’s question will be IN TWO PARTS. Get ready to rumble answer a kinda nerdy baseball question.

Play the player-profile game every day this week at 11:30am ET. Each day, we’re giving away a free copy of the 2011 Second Opinion to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).

As announced recently, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion.

In the meantime, we’re playing the player-profile game that I intoduced in these pages last offseason.

The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.

First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!

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Today’s entry comes to us courtesy of Second Opinion mastermind Marc Hulet.

Who is it?

[BLANK] surprised a lot of people in 2010. The former first-round draft pick had some disappointing minor-league seasons and had one foot out the door before a solid 2010 showing in Triple-A gave him one last shot. [BLANK] isn’t going anywhere now and he’s the odds-on favorite to start at second base for the [BLANKS] in 2011. His value is still down a bit from when he was drafted, simply because he doesn’t catch anymore. However, he will likely serve as the club’s third-string catcher and an injury to one of the top two could increase [BLANK’S] fantasy value significantly depending on the games-played requirement in your fantasy league. He may already have third-base eligibility in some leagues after making six appearances there in 2010. Like fellow rookie [BLANK], [BLANK] has the potential to hit .280-.300 but he’ll hit for more power and could slug about 15 homers. He could potentially reach the 20-homer mark if his line drives (22.4%) get a little more loft.

Former first-round pick. Quasi-catcher. Breakout-ish 2010.

Also: MUST BE SPELLED CORRECTLY.


Sabathia’s Opt Out

When CC Sabathia signed a seven-year, $161 million contract with the New York Yankees in 2009, it looked as if the Yankees had acquired their ace of the future. That future may be in jeopardy, as Sabathia has recently hinted at exercising his opt out clause following the 2011 season. While Sabathia is already well compensated, it’s definitely possible, if not likely, that Sabathia can make more money on the open market if he turns in another solid season.
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Jose Bautista Cashes In

As first reported by Enrique Rojas, the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista have apparently agreed to terms on a five year, $65 million dollar contract. That is a lot of money for a guy who has had one good year, no doubt, and there will be a lot of discussion over whether it is wise to invest significant cash in a player coming off a year that could have been a fluke. That said, I think this deal actually does make some sense.

Let’s start with what the Jays are not paying for – this deal does not pay for the expectation that Bautista will hit like he did in 2010 again. He was a +7 win player last year, and if they were paying for that kind of performance going forward, they would have had to add another $100 million to get a deal done. At $65 million over five years, we essentially come up with the following expectation:

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How Much Would You Pay for Albert Pujols?

Albert Pujols and the Cardinals being unable to come to an agreement on a contract extension has been the big news of the week and provoked a lot of commentary speculating on the motives of all those involved and what the implications might fall out from this.

I am uninterested in predictions about what will happen since even the best are no better than mildly informed guesses, but I am interested in how people view Pujols as a possible asset outside the abstract. That is, suppose nine months from now you are the General Manager for your favorite team and Pujols’ agent calls you up and tells you that if you offer the most money, Albert will sign there. How much do you offer? What’s your breaking point?

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Arizona Scoops Up Branyan

After wondering where saber-sweetheart Russell Branyan would play this upcoming season, we now know he will be joining the fangraphs crew in Arizona – not literally, but close. In an offseason where Mark Kotsay signed a major-league deal, Branyan and his .350 wOBA of a season ago will join the Diamondbacks on a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training…really.

Branyan has been a hot topic around these parts with two articles yesterday looking at possible destinations for the muscle. As a Rays’ fan I agreed with Jack Moore that he was born for the Rays – or at least a better backup plan than Casey Kotchman. My AL East Rival, Joe Pawlikowski suggested the right-handed heavy Blue Jays would be a good fit as well.

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What Factors Affect HR/FB Rate?

In the past few weeks, home run per fly ball rate has been a hot topic here at FanGraphs and around the baseball blogosphere. Dave Cameron sparked a lively discussion with this post about Matt Cain, and then showed that Giants’ pitching coach Dave Righetti has been able to get better than average HR/FB rates out of a number of his starters. Another interesting article suggests that HR/FB rate may have something to do with pitch movement.

At this point, it seems clear that HR/FB rate may not be completely luck. It may have a lot of luck involved, but there are some factors that can increase or decrease this statistic. Using the vast FanGraphs database and some regression modeling, we can hunt for these factors and find out just how much they matter.

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