You’ll have to go through Tyler Chatwood to see Peavy’s debut tonight.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Tampa Bay at Cleveland, Jake Peavy’s Debut™, Philadelphia at Florida Marlins.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. All manner of garment-rending.

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FanGraphs Live is coming to the west coast. We are excited to have teamed up with the Society for American Baseball Research and will be holding our next event at the same venue as the 41st National SABR Convention in Long Beach this summer. The event will take place on Thursday, July 7th, from 7 to 10 pm.

Among the confirmed guests who will be joining us for an evening of baseball discussion are:

Rob Neyer, national baseball writer for SB Nation
Vince Gennaro, author of Diamond Dollars and professor at Columbia University
Rich Lederer, curator of Baseball Analysts and well known Bert Blyleven booster
Jon Weisman, author of Dodger Thoughts and writer/editor at Variety
Eric Stephen, author at True Blue LA, the Dodgers arm of the SB Nation network
Jonah Keri, writer for FanGraphs and author of The Extra 2%
Carson Cistulli, editor for FanGraphs, host of FanGraphs Audio, published poet
David Appelman, president of FanGraphs
Dave Cameron, managing editor of FanGraphs

Over the course of three hours or so, we will talk extensively about the local Los Angeles franchises, the current state and future of statistical analysis, and why Jonah is just so darn likeable. In addition to hosting several moderated panel discussions, we’ll also be taking questions from the audience, aiming for an interactive discussion between guests and attendees.

In addition to providing all this for just $20, we’re also pleased to offer discounted tickets to the SABR convention for those who attend the FanGraphs Live event. If you purchase a ticket to FanGraphs Live, you will receive 15% off of any SABR conference registration – whether it be the full conference registration ($159), two-day registration ($93), or single day registration ($59). Use offer code FGNonMember-41 to receive your discount when registering at SABR’s site.

I would highly encourage you to take advantage of at least the single day offer if you can spare a Thursday away from work, as SABR has some really interesting events scheduled for that day. Scott Boras is the keynote speaker and will be addressing the convention on Thursday morning. There are approximately 40 research presentations that will take place throughout the day, and several high-powered panels including a Thursday afternoon discussion which will include myself and Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference.com – there is a non-zero chance that we arm-wrestle for exclusive rights to WAR, and you won’t want to miss that.

Space is limited, so we suggest you buy your tickets early to make sure you don’t miss out on what should be a fantastic event. We look forward to seeing you on the evening of July 7th for baseball nerdery at it’s finest.

Dude, seriously?

Orioles 7, Mariners 6

Moving the Needle: Felix Pie ties the game in the 13th, +.489 WPA. After three scoreless extra frames, the Mariners finally came through with a run, capitalizing on a double that led off the 13th. They had a chance for more, too, but they couldn’t scratch across that one insurance run. Too bad, say the Orioles. They started off the inning strong as well, putting runners on first and second with one out. Pie came through with a single up the middle, and then, after Jake Fox got cut down at the plate trying to score the winning run, Matt Wieters came through with the game winner.

Fun: Both teams had potential go-ahead (or winning) runs cut down at the plate. The Orioles looked silly trying to score in the ninth, while the Miguel Olivo just wasn’t fast enough to score in the 12th.

Notables

Adam Jones: 3 for 6, 2 2B. He had only three doubles on the season heading into the game.

J.J. Hardy: 4 for 5, 1 HR, 1 BB. That’s a nice welcome back from the DL. His first homer of the year, yes. Further he had more hits in this game than he did in in his first six games of the season cobined.

Also in this issue: Angels 6, White Sox 2 | Nationals 7, Braves 6 | Cardinals 6, Cubs 4 | Indians 5, Rays 4 | Mets 4, Rockies 3 | Tigers 10, Twins 2 | Marlins 2, Phillies 1 | Rangers 7, A’s 2 | Brewers 8, Padres 6 | Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 6 | Dodgers 10, Pirates 3 | Giants 1, Diamondbacks 0 | Yankees 3, Royals 1 | Reds 7, Astros 3

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Episode Seventy-Four
In which the guest is Badler to all of his bones.

Headlines
Badler’s Path to BA — Recounted!
Prospects Like Julio Teheran and Tim Beckham — Observed!
The International Signing Period — Demystified!

Featuring
Ben Badler, Baseball America

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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In yesterday’s chat, a question was raised about Brandon Morrow and where his stuff ranks with other starting pitchers in the game. Due to the nature of how chats work, I didn’t really have time for a detailed explanation, but I felt like the topic probably deserved a post of its own. So, let’s talk about a pitcher’s “stuff”.

We’ll focus on starting pitchers because relievers are a whole other ball of wax – they get used situationally depending on who is due up, only have to throw 15-20 pitches per outing, and are mostly pitchers who lacked some necessary skill to stick in the starting rotation. The best pitchers in baseball are starters, and we’re most interested in who among that group has the best stuff in baseball.

In general, the easiest way to explain the term “good stuff” is that it’s essentially a proxy for velocity. Guys who throws hard are stuff guys, while guys who don’t are not. There are some differences among pitchers with similar velocity – with movement and secondary pitches coming into play – but you’ll never hear a guy who throws 89 get labeled with better stuff than a guy who throws 95. By far, the main determinant of who has “good stuff” is how hard they throw.

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A. J. Hinch
Vice President of Pro Scouting
San Diego Padres

Mr. Hinch:

I am writing you to report in on a possible trade target. As you know, a team never has too much pitching. The strength of the Padres organization is definitely on the mound but the upper ranks of the system is a little bare. As such, I strongly recommend that you considering posing offers for Toronto’s Brad Mills.

Background: Mills, a lefty, was originally drafted out of the University of Arizona during the fourth round of the 2007 draft. He graduated with a civil engineering degree and is known for being a very smart pitcher who understands his strengths and weaknesses. The 2011 season represents his third partial season in triple-A. In each of those three seasons, the southpaw has performed reasonable well in the potent Pacific Coast League and in a very dangerous home ball park in Las Vegas. In parts of two seasons in the Majors, Mills has posted a 5.64 ERA (4.51 FIP) in 22.1 innings (seven appearances, three starts). He’s given up just 20 hits but control, which has been much less of an issue in the minors, has been his nemesis (13 walks). He will be out of options at the beginning of the 2012 season (Options used in ’09, ’10 and ’11).

2011 Season: It’s early in the year still, but Mills has been very effective. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in five or his six triple-A starts. In one game in poor weather conditions at Colorado Springs (38 degrees F), he was touched up for six runs on nine hits and two walks in 5.0 innings. Removing that start on the year, he has given up three earned runs in 35.0 innings on 22 hits and nine walks. He’s recorded 33 strikeouts. Subtracting the one start, Mills has a 0.77 ERA in his other five starts. His ground-ball rate is disappointing and sits at 37.0 BB%.

Scouting Strengths: Mills has displayed solid control in his pro career. His fastball is nothing to write home about but he has a plus changeup and throws it with the same arm speed as his heater. He spent some time on the disabled list in ’09 (not a chronic concern, bruised ribs… he also missed a few starts in college with a back injury) but Mills has been fairly durable in his career and has shown the ability to pitch 130-150 innings at the minor league level and has a resilient arm. He has solid deception with a bit of a herky-jerky delivery, which can cause him to lose his release point at times. He does a nice job of staying back over the rubber in his delivery.

Scouting Weaknesses: Although he has solid control, Mills does struggle to command the fastball in the strike zone. With a fringe-average fastball for a lefty, he works up in the zone too often, which has hurt him in previous trips to the Majors Leagues; pitching in Petco Park, and in a league less potent than the American League East could certainly help him. Mills has a three-pitch repertoire but his breaking ball – a curve – is more of a big league show-me pitch. I would rate his fastball a 45.

Projection: With a three-pitch repertoire – a fastball that sits around 86 mph (He can touch 90-91), an average curveball at 72 mph, and a changeup at 74 mph – Mills could settle in as a No. 4 or 5 starter. That’s nothing to get too excited about but he could provide respectable value during his control years. His changeup gives him a legitimate weapon against right-handers but he could also settle in at the MLB level as a LOOGY (lefties hitting .179 against him in 2011). He currently throws with a high three-quarter arm slot and lower that arm a bit to low-three quarter might help with deception and getting more ground balls. He might be better off his more of a slurve or cutter if the lower arm slot takes effectiveness away from his curveball.

Is it possible that, 500-plus innings into the career of Anibal Sanchez, we only know as much about his true talent level as your typical sophomore starter? It’s something worth pondering, because, despite showing the same traditional statistics as ever, there are some underlying changes to his game this year, and he’s not your typical vet.

Those changes might be less exciting if he had amassed as many major league innings as most other six-year veteran starters — we’d call back on the larger sample of his past career and call for a coming regression. In the case of Sanchez, though, it seems that his current level of production might not only be sustainable, but it might represent a true story of triumph over massive obstacles.

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There’s something interesting about every team, at every point in the season. Each week I’ll examine a different one, tackling a different topic each day. This is normally a Monday post. Forgive it’s tardiness.

Hell yeah, they’re over .500, bros!

Last night, with a 4-1 victory over the Dodgers, the Pirates pushed their record to 18-17. That means that they have at least one more day with a .500 or better record, which, at this point, is significant in Pittsburgh. When they wrapped up a victory on Sunday they reached .500 again, the latest date at which they had an even record since 2004. After that things got pretty ugly, which makes this year’s run that much more enjoyable.

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