At 32-31, the Seattle Mariners are surprisingly in the thick of the AL West race. Whether the club is capable of keeping pace with the Rangers is another matter: Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report gives Seattle a 3.5 percent chance of claiming the division. Still, by most measures, the Mariners have played markedly better baseball in 2011. That is, except for one glaring example. And his name is Ichiro.

Known for his Jedi-like bat control, scorching speed and deadly arm, the 37-year-old has racked up the fifth-most Wins Above Replacement among position players since he left Japan and arrived in Seattle in 2001. He averaged 4.8 WAR from 2008 to 2010. Yet, this season, Ichiro has been a sub-replacement-level player (-0.6 WAR).

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The As are, to put it mildly, not having the season for which they were hoping. Brian Fuentes is reported to be in the doldrums after the firing of Bob Geren, but the clubhouse’s general sadness at the departure of their beloved leader is almost matched by the futility of the offense. You’ve heard this song before. One could point in a number of directions, but the production of first baseman Daric Barton is particularly troubling after a good season in 2010. The problem is magnified because the As lack real options if they want to replace him.

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It was not too long ago when Jose Lopez was a perfectly capable starter on a major-league team. Sure, he was far from a star, but was league-average bat with passable defense at several positions along the infield. In early 2007, he signed a modest four-year extension with the Seattle Mariners worth around $6 million.

Lopez, 27, went on to produce 2.5 wins over the course of the deal, making it a decent endeavor for the Mariners. Meanwhile, his production dropped from average to replacement level as the deal expired last season. In his final season with the Mariners, Lopez hit .239/.270/.339 in 150 games. He continued to show little plate discipline and actually increased his O-Swing to a career-high 37%. Although he had some room for positive regression in both BABIP and HR/FB, the potential for a mediocre rebound was not enough to justify picking up the $4.5 million option the club held for the 2011 season.

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Last week, I submitted for the readership’s consideration a first attempt at NERD scores for position players. In this post, I submit a second iteration with more variables, as suggested by a number of readers.

For those unfamiliar with NERD, allow me to explain briefly. NERD is an attempt to issue a score (0-10) to, in this case, every position player with more than 100 PA, on the basis of how interesting or watchable that player might be to the learned baseball fan.

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Darwin Barney is a throwback middle infielder, and to the surprise of many, a Rookie-of-the-Year candidate. The 25-year-old Oregon State product came into spring training battling for a backup position, but instead established himself as the Cubs everyday second baseman. His skill set is more Glenn Beckert [fans under the age of 40 may need to look him up] than Starlin Castro, but there is nothing wrong with being scrappy when you’re hitting .297 and playing quality defense. In Barney’s opinion, there is also nothing wrong with following instructions from Carlos Zambrano. As for the infield surface of Wrigley Field…well, the youngster is a fan of historic ballparks.

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David Laurila: This year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook says of you: “He isn’t flashy, but he’s the best defensive infielder in the organization, including the majors.” Do you agree with that?

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Twins 5, Rangers 4

Moving the Needle: Alexi Casilla walks off with a single, +.389 WPA. Trading homers back and forth worked for the Twins and Rangers, at least through eight innings. Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young got the ball rolling, homering in the first and then the second. Michael Cuddyer, however, struck gold when his three-run shot put the Twins up 4-1. A half inning later, the Rangers manufactured a pair, and then in the eighth tied it on, yes, a Nelson Cruz homer. Luke Hughes set up the walk-off in the ninth with a leadoff double, and with two outs Casilla drove him in with what would have been a double to the left field corner.

Notables

Delmon Young: 3 for 4, 1 HR. That’s his first homer since May 22nd. Even more troubling, he has only two doubles in the interim.

Nick Blackburn: 7.1 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 6 K. No, it wasn’t a great start, even though only two of the runs were earned (still don’t like the earned run rule). But it seems that every time I look at his pitching line he has five or six Ks in six or seven innings. Yet his strikeout rate is only barely above his career average. Confirmation bias ahoy.

Also in this issue: White Sox 9, A’s 4 | Rockies 9, Dodgers 7 | Tigers 4, Mariners 1 | Braves 3, Marlins 2 | Royals 3, Blue Jays 2 | Cardinals 9, Astros 2 | Twins 5, Rangers 4 | Mets 4, Brewers 1 | Red Sox 8, Yankees 3 | Cubs 4, Phillies 3 | Diamondbacks 2, Pirates 0 | Padres 7, Nationals 3 | Reds 3, Giants 0

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The decline of Chone Figgins over the past two seasons is no secret to baseball fans. He produced 1.1 WAR last season after an impressive 6.9-win campaign a year earlier. He also averaged 3.6 wins above replacement in 2007 and 2008, establishing himself as as a patient hitter with excellent baserunning skills and strong defensive skills. His past 940 plate appearances have been so utterly unimpressive, though, that it is hard to remember he was once considered a threat at the plate. On top of that, his fielding marks have suffered substantially. He is nowhere near the guy who earned a lucrative deal last season.

In 55 games this season, he has a negative UZR, a below average baserunning mark and a putrid .211 wOBA. All told, Figgins has cost the Mariners 1.2 wins. His walk rate has progressively dropped from 13.9% to 10.5% last season, and now sits at 5.5%, which would be the lowest of his career if the season ended today. Since 2009, his wOBA has dropped from .358 to .302, all the way to the current .211 mark, which had Joe Pawlikowski wondering how much longer the Mariners would continue to write his name on the lineup card.

I recently wondered if Jose Bautista’s rise to superstardom was unprecedented in the annals of baseball history. So what if I repeated that research in the opposite direction? Namely, is the 33-year old Mariner’s decline unprecedented?

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Episode Seventy-Seven
In which the platoon is employed.

Headlines
Pseudonymity — Pronounced Almost Correctly!
The Twins — How They’re bad!
Physical Insecurities — Noted!

Featuring
Bill, The Platoon Advantage
The Common Man, Also The Platoon Advantage

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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There are undoubtedly some great pitchers in baseball right now, but the ones who generally command the most attention — Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum i- are all right-handed. Those three have each won a Cy Young Award in the past two years, and are usually the first names mentioned in a discussion of the best pitchers in baseball. However, there are some pretty terrific left-handed pitchers in baseball as well, and in particular, there are four spectacular southpaws in the National League right now.

If you look at the lowest xFIPs in the NL, you’ll see Halladay and Lincecum, but you’ll also see Cole Hamels (2.50), Cliff Lee (2.51), Clayton Kershaw (2.84), and Jaime Garcia (2.98) — they are each one of the six pitchers in the NL with an xFIP below 3.00. While all four have been excellent in prior seasons, each is doing something new this year that has made them even better than they were previously.

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You could have told me they were giving up the next Ruth, the next Mays, the next Koufax. That as fans, we’d live to regret the trade for the rest of our lives. Did not care, at all.

The day I found out the Montreal Expos had traded for Mark Langston, just one thought rattled through my head: “F Yeah, they’re finally trying to win something!” That one of the players headed back to Seattle in the deal really did turn out to be the next Koufax (only much taller, and yes, I’ll say it, much better) never made me change my mind.

Find the best players who can help you win right now. Don’t torch the future, but don’t jump in into the rabbit hole and spend your life chasing prospects either. That’s a losing game.

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