In a post earlier this week, I mentioned a Bill James quote: “If you could split [Henderson] in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers.” James was totally serious. Since James wrote those words, Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has become the Nerdosphere’s favorite total value stat. Does it support James’ contention? Let’s “split Rickey in two” and found out.
The Rangers are rolling on all cylinders these days. Their +92 run differential is fourth-best in the Majors, and they are 11 games over .500 since the start of June. As Carson noted the other day, they have received good production out of center field, and really that translates to every other spot in the lineup as well. And while the Rangers’ bullpen has pitched better during the past two months, it still remains the team weakness… perhaps the team’s only weakness. As such the Rangers have been linked to both Heath Bell and Mike Adams as potential bullpen reinforcements, though it is widely thought that Bell is more likely to be dealt, so let’s focus on him. Would acquiring Bell be the proverbial final piece of the puzzle for the Rangers?
Potential aces don’t grow on trees. So it came as quite a shock that the New York Mets acquired the San Francisco Giants’ top pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, for free-agent-to-be Carlos Beltran.
Despite an ill-conceived article* on USA Today’s website, which suggests that the organization’s pitching prospects cannot be trusted, this was a shrewd move by the Mets organization and a very questionable decision by the Giants. Even as an amateur, Wheeler was a highly sought after talent and went to San Francisco sixth overall in the 2009 draft. Prior to the 2011 season during the Top 10 prospect lists, I ranked him as the Giants’ second best prospect in the system behind 1B/OF Brandon Belt.
Roy Halladay and Charlie Morton face each other tonight.
Featured Game
Pittsburgh (7) at Philadelphia (3) | 19:05 ET
• The attentive reader will be familiar with how Pirate Charlie Morton has co-opted entirely Roy Halladay’s delivery this season.
• The less attentive reader can use this time to read a note by Ken Rosenthal about how Charlie Morton has co-opted entirely Roy Halladay’s delivery this season.
• Or watch these YouTube videos.
• While that’s happening, the attentive reader can use his extra time to play Legos! Yay!
• Afterwards, we’ll all watch this Pirates-Phillies game, which marks the first time these pitchers will have met since Morton co-opted entirely Roy Halladay’s delivery.
Watch: ROOT (i.e. the Pittsburgh feed). Colorman Bob Walk is pretty responsible with most of his commentary, from what I’ve seen.
Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.4.
Mitch Maier is no belly itcher, but when someone hasn’t been on a mound since Little League, it’s hard to call him a pitcher just because he toed the rubber in a big-league game. But that’s what the 29-year-old outfielder did earlier this week, throwing a garbage-time inning — a scoreless one in Fenway Park, no less — one night after a 14-inning marathon left the Royals’ bullpen shorthanded. Regardless of how you label him, Maier — with his 81-mph fastball — did himself proud. He gave up a double to David Ortiz but retired Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford and Jason Varitek. The next day he recounted the experience.
——
Maier, on the last time he pitched: “I think it was when I was about 10 or 12 years old. It was in Little League, in Novi, Michigan. I played a little shortstop and a little pitcher then, but most of my life I’ve been a catcher. That’s what I enjoyed the most — catching — so I never really ventured out to the mound.”
Rumors are swirling that the Philadelphia Phillies are zeroing in on Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence. What I don’t understand, though, is why the Phillies don’t already have him. The rumored offering for the 28-year-old outfielder is top prospects Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton, along with a third unnamed prospect. While Pence is a very nice baseball player, he is not a difference-maker all on his own. Nor is he a star player.
Moving the Needle: Desmond Jennings singles home a pair to give the Rays a lead, +.300 WPA. Before they knew it, the Rays were down 5-0. Yet somehow Wade Davis found his groove, and retired 17 in a row. Seriously. Five runs allowed, then 17 retired in a row. Odd, odd game it was. It got oder, still, when the Rays went to town in the eighth, raking up seven runs and taking a lead. The big shot came off the bat of Jennings — though it was big in terms of significance rather than distance. (He had taken care of distance earlier, hitting a two-run homer, first of his career, the previous inning.) It was a sharp grounder through the right side, bringing home two and putting the Rays up 6-5.
Notables
David DeJesus: 1 for 4, 1 3B. He drove in three, leading the way for the A’s.
Sean Rodriguez: 1 for 3, 1 BB. He was the only one on the team, other than Jennings, to score more than once. No one on the team other than Jennings drove in more than one run.
Also in this issue: Royals 4, Red Sox 3 | Pirates 5, Braves 2 | Angels 12, Tigers 7 | Mets 10, Reds 9 | Brewers 4, Cubs 2 | Rangers 4, Twins 1 | Marlins 5, Nationals 2 | Blue Jays 8, Orioles 5 | Giants 4, Phillies 1 | Astros 5, Cardinals 3 | Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3
You’ve probably seen the end of Tuesday night’s Pirates-Braves game. For the few of you who haven’t, a quick recap: After each team had scored three runs in the first three innings, both teams went scoreless for the next 15. Finally, in the bottom of the ninth nineteenth inning, the game ended after Julio Lugo slid through catcher Michael McKenry’s swipe tag five feet from the plate and umpire Jerry Meals called Lugo safe. In a video posted on mlb.com, you can see the play from three different angles. They all make it look like a tag was applied, though in Jack Moore’s words, it’s more of a “tangent-point tag” than a catcher bear hug. (McKenry used a swipe tag, not blocking the plate. Could that have anything to do with the Buster Posey injury?)
If you squinted, the replay angles were slightly inconclusive — it looked like McKenry got him, but it also looked like it was possible that he missed Lugo by picometers, rather than brushing his glove across his uniform. A few people defended the call: Rob Neyer thought that the ump “might have been right”; Jonah Keri wrote that “he may have been safe”; and Jack Moore mused, “I’m just not so sure it’s as obvious as everybody says it is.” But then, in a postscript, Meals viewed replays of the play and announced, “I was incorrect.” Joe Torre, the Executive Vice President for Operations for MLB, said the same: “The tag was applied and the game should have remained tied.”
Read the rest of this entry »
I’m sure I’m accidentally quoting dozens of able writers and analysts when I state that at the heart of a baseball game lies the pitcher-batter confrontation — and that, at the heart of that confrontation, is a power struggle over rights to the strike zone.
If, in some kind of alternate reality, a batter (for whatever reason) weren’t permitted to swing, it’s very possible that Josh Tomlin or Doug Fister or some other control artist would dominate the game. If, in a different reality from that, there were no such thing as a base on balls — that a pitcher just needed, say, to get three strikes — then Aroldis Chapman and his 13.9% swinging-strike percentage would be incredibly valuable (until such a time as his arm fell off, that is).
As it turns out, batters are allowed to swing and there are such things as four-ball walks — and it’s for these twin reasons that pitchers must employ all manner of spins and changes of speed and menacing scowls to defeat their opponents within the strike zone (or, if possible, tempt them out of it).
Currently — and somewhat unexpectedly, I’d suggest — the pitcher most frequently winning this battle for strike-zone supremacy is Dodger lefty Clayton Kershaw.
The biggest chip in the 2011 trading season has officially been moved. After weeks of rumors, the Giants pulled the trigger on a deal to bolster a struggling offense, acquiring Carlos Beltran from the Mets in exchange for prized pitching prospect Zach Wheeler. Beltran will infuse some life into an offense which enters Thursday’s play with an overall batting line of .241/.306/.360, worth an 82 wRC+ that sits dead last in the National League.
