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There has been a poll up on Joe Posnanski’s blog for quite some time now asking his Brilliant Readers which pitcher they would rather have for four years if they were an MLB owner with $100 million burning a hole in their pocket – Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, or Yu Darvish. The question arose due to the expectation that Yu Darvish would cost whichever team acquired him a number in this range. In the end, the Rangers ended up shelling out $111 million over six years for the Japanese star.
Obviously, a poll can only display so much information because it does not allow voters to lay out their arguments for and against each pitcher. Fortunately, we here at FanGraphs can provide that opportunity through our comments section. What follows below will be a brief summary of each pitcher, and then hopefully a spirited debate in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »
Not Joe Saunders.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.
1. Caribbean Series Notes
2. Projecting: ZiPS for Arizona
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: San Diego Television
Caribbean Series
Scores from Yesterday
Puerto Rican team Mayaguez defeated Venezuelan Winter League champion Aragua, 3-1 (box).
Escogido of the Dominican Winter League defeated Mexican Pacific League side Obregon, 2-1 (box).
Notes on Those Games
• Mayaguez right-hander Nelson Figueroa did this: 6.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 HR.
• There was precisely one extra-base hit between the two games: Mayaguez center fielder Jesus Feliciano’s second-inning ground-rule double.
• Right-hander Jairo Asencio recorded the save for Escogido, striking out two in an inning of work. Asencio was the boss of the DWL for much of the season, finishing second on the SCOUT pitching leaderboard.
Last night, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reported that Josh Hamilton was spotted drinking at a local area bar on Monday evening. According to the report, Ian Kinsler appeared at some point and tried to convince Hamilton to leave. Beyond that, we don’t really know much. In fact, including that information, I’d argue that we don’t really know much.
I’m conflicted about even writing about this, to be honest. Yes, it’s news, and we try to provide analysis and commentary about things going on in the news, but what can we really say about Hamilton’s battle to remain sober? I have no insight into addiction or what a relapse might mean for a recovering addict. There might be people who can speak about what could be inferred from Hamilton falling off the wagon, but as far as I know, no one on staff is an expert on alcoholism. I’m certainly not, and I don’t feel qualified to have any kind of opinion on what this news means for Hamilton’s sobriety.
I was tempted to write about what this might mean for Hamilton’s potential chances for a contract extension, since that’s a bit more up our alley, but anything we said would really just be baseless speculation. To actually know how this might affect the Rangers desire to give Hamilton a long term contract, we’d need access to information that only they’re privy to – his drug test schedule and results, his resolve to get back on the wagon, and what steps he’s willing to take to ensure that this doesn’t become a recurring issue.
We don’t know any of that. In all honestly, we don’t really know anything. The only thing I’m comfortable saying about this news is that I hope Josh Hamilton wins his battle with alcohol and that the sport is better when he’s playing at a high level. Whether you root for the Rangers or not, Josh Hamilton is worth rooting for.
According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Tommy Hanson will be ready for spring training. Hanson was on his way to another strong season when a small tear in his rotator cuff was discovered in August. The tear did not require surgery, and the team shut down Hanson for the remainder of the season.
Had the Atlanta Braves made the playoffs last season, there was some speculation that Hanson would have rejoined the team after two months of rest. The Braves’ collapse down the stretch probably benefitted Hanson, as he’s had the entire offseason to rest and rehabilitate his shoulder. If Hanson had pushed himself to pitch in the playoffs before he was ready — and re-injured his shoulder — there’s a good chance his outlook would be less rosy today.
While we won’t know how well Hanson is doing until we see him pitch again, this comes as positive news for the Braves, who are also managing past injury issues with Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Hudson had back surgery during the offseason but is expected to be ready for spring training, and Jurrjens will be returning from a knee injury that cut his 2011 season short.
With Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran nearly ready to contribute — and Kris Medlen returning from injury — the Braves are one of the few teams that can get by if one of their pitchers suffer a setback.
Having a healthy Hanson would be a substantial gain for the Braves. Considering the team missed out on the playoffs due to injuries, Hanson’s recovery is the first sign that the team could be in line for a successful playoff run this season.
You probably haven’t heard of him, but Brian “Pete” Peterson is an invaluable member of the Detroit Tigers organization. Working within the realm of sports psychology, and alongside Dr. George Carlo, the 58-year-old Peterson is heading into his 10th season as the team’s Performance Enhancement Instructor. It isn’t a unique role — a handful of other teams employ someone in a similar capacity — but thanks to his background and experience, few, if any, are better at helping players gain a mental edge.
——
David Laurila: How would you define your role with the Tigers organization?
Brian Peterson: My title is Performance Enhancement Instructor and my job is to help all of the players, in the entire organization, be clear of mind while they’re going about their business. That’s probably the easiest way to describe it.
DL: How did you get involved in professional baseball?
BP: I was a minor league pitcher for four years. My first year was 1976, in the Northwest League. I came out of the University of Oregon and was with one of the very first independent teams.
Later, and before coming to Detroit, I worked for the Florida Marlins. I was a pitching coach for six years — five in the Midwest League and one in the Eastern League — and then I was with them for three years in my current role. When the Marlins were sold, I was one of about 25 or 30 minor-league personnel who was let go. In September of 2002, Dave Dombrowski hired me. Prior to that, the Tigers didn’t have anyone in my position.
DL: How may teams currently employ Performance Enhancement Instructors, or Sports Psychologists? Read the rest of this entry »
Episode 135
Bill Baer is the proprietor of Phillies internet weblog Crashburn Alley, a volume tweeter, and — of late — author of a real book called 100 Things Phillies Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. Topics discussed: Bobby Abreu, how he’s good; cheesesteaks, how they’re delicious; Domonic Brown, how he’s blocked.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min. play time.)
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Micah Owings has been an interesting character over the years, garnering plenty of attention for his bat — .349 wOBA with nine homers in 217 career plate appearances — while leaving much to be deserved when on the mound. The two-way right-hander is closing in on 500 career innings (479.1 to be exact) with a 4.91 ERA to go along with his 4.95 FIP and 4.93 xFIP, so there’s no funny business here. He’s giving up runs as often as expected. Owings signed a one-year deal worth $1 million with the Padres recently, courtesy of the tireless Ken Rosenthal.
It’s no secret that the Indians have been disappointed in Matt LaPorta’s production and development, and today they took a step towards replacing him at first base. Jon Heyman reports that Cleveland will sign Casey Kotchman to what I presume is a one- or two-year contract.
Update: Paul Hoynes says it’s a one-year deal worth $3 million plus incentives.
Kotchman has been the butt of many jokes over the last few seasons, which tends to happen when you’re first baseman that musters just a .304 wOBA and an 84 wRC+ with a measly .125 ISO in nearly 1,500 plate appearances across a three-year stretch like Kotchman did from 2008-2010. He did give the Rays 563 quality plate appearances last season — .351 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ — after coming up in April to replace the suddenly retired Manny Ramirez. That’s the Kotchman the Tribe hope they agreed to sign this afternoon.
As you can see in the graph below, there has been no significant change in the first baseman’s batted ball profile over the last few seasons…
There’s nothing outrageous there that would support his .333 BABIP last season compared to the .277 mark he put up from 2004-2010. I don’t want to take the easy way out and call it good luck, but it is something to be mindful of going forward. It’s possible that many of those ground balls that skirted through the turf infield in Tropicana Field will be slowed down enough by natural grass that fielders will be able to make a play on them, which would do a number on his BABIP and production. For what it’s worth, Kotchman had a .250 BABIP on ground balls last year compared to the .237 league average and his .194 career mark. He also had an eye procedure last winter, which is definitely worth mentioning.
Kotchman is a very strong gloveman at first base, so he will improve Cleveland’s defense. He’ll also make their lineup even more left-handed than it already is, with switch-hitters Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera representing the team’s only everyday threats from the right side. That can be problematic for a team trying to make a run at a division title, and I can’t help but think Derrek Lee might have been a better fit. Assuming the money isn’t outrageous — and there’s no reason to think it will be — the Indians have upgraded their defense and potentially their offense if the 28-year-old made real improvement last season.
Yesterday, Jayson Stark wrote a column that was music to my ears. His column was the first serious report I’d read to indicate that Bud Selig’s dream of adding a second wild card in each league had hit a logistical snag. Stark is careful to note that it is still possible — “All of this is solvable,” says one of Stark’s sources — but the drumbeat of inevitability has been momentarily hushed.
And that’s fantastic, as far as I’m concerned. When the plan to expand the wild card was first announced in late 2010, I wrote two columns against the idea:
I want to keep the schedule from expanding further and prevent the slippery slope of an expanded playoff schedule eroding the significance of the regular season. The main objection beyond that is the speciousness of the stated reasoning. Bud Selig has couched the idea of expanding the playoffs in language about “fairness”… Obviously, this plan is predicated on money.
…
There isn’t much terribly wrong with this plan, in the abstract: it will make a lot of people richer while helping to increase the hopes of Blue Jays and Orioles fans without much hurting the fans of other teams. Compared to them, my objections are relatively minor. But I wish baseball’s leadership weren’t so disingenuous about it all.
I’ve written a number of columns about the playoffs, and my basic position is simple: more playoffs means that the regular season means less. It cheapens the product. (I’m very sympathetic to the Blue Jays’ situation, of course. But I’d prefer to address that by rethinking baseball divisions and getting rid of unbalanced schedules, rather than by continuing to expand the playoff pool every year.)
Look, I hate the baseball offseason more than anyone, but I’m relatively unique among American sports fans, who have already turned their attention to football by the time the baseball season reaches its apogee. Baseball World Series ratings have plummeted compared to football over the past two decades, and part of the reason is the interminable season. Stretching the season into November doesn’t help matters.
It was a minor victory when, in 2011, the World Series actually finished before November, for the first time since 2008. But the playoffs are still incredibly languidly paced. The biggest reason that the playoffs stretch on, of course, is television revenue: Fox and the other networks who bid on playoff baseball want a typical series to have games on nights when they’ll get their biggest viewership: Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. So the off days are scheduled to satisfy almighty Mammon.
Since becoming commissioner, Selig has already expanded the playoffs once by adding a single wild card, and he’s looking to do it again. It’s only a single game this time, but it’s hard to feel certain that they’ll stop at two wild cards. After all, as I mentioned above, the fundamental argument has always been “fairness.” But if 10 playoff teams is “fairer” than eight playoff teams, then 12 playoff teams must be fairer than ten. Using that logic with that limited definition of what’s fair means that there’s essentially no way to stop adding playoff teams.
Moreover, a short-term view of the money — more games equals more dollars, ad infinitum — leads one to the same conclusion. But one look at the decline in Nielsen ratings for playoff baseball over the past two decades suggests that may be an overly simplistic analysis.
The reason for the recent snag is just about scheduling: certain dates in the 2012 playoff schedule are already set in stone, and it is difficult to figure out quite how the extra wild card games will fit in. But all sides appear to agree in principle on the concept. Stark writes that Bud Selig is “adamant” to get this done in 2012, but whether or not he is successful, appears like there will be no problem implementing the new playoff schedule in 2013.
Selig has presented the new wild card as a corrective to the original wild card, rather than an expansion. If an agreement is reached, then under the new rules, the two wild cards will play one another in a one-game playoff for the right to play in the division series against one of the division winners. The wild card team, it is argued, would therefore be disadvantaged against the slightly better-rested division winner.
That’s certainly what Richard Justice thinks. Justice writes for MLB.com now, but he’s a veteran sportswriter with prior service at the Washington Post, Houston Chronicle, and ESPN. Because he works for the organization that’s trying to implement this policy, I doubt that he would have spoken out nearly as strongly if he didn’t support the new wild card — but I doubt he would have written something he didn’t believe. “To add two additional playoff teams while actually increasing the importance of the regular season is sheer brilliance,” Justice writes. “If you worried that baseball was diluting the regular season, your concerns have been addressed.”
So I may be an outlier even among the purist, old-fogey crowd. But I’m not alone. Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Mark Teixeira have all spoken out in favor of the current system.
Still, Selig justifies his current action by recalling how many people who were previously against the Wild Card, all the way back in 1995, are now strongly in favor. In fact, he’s brought back one of his favorite icky metaphors. In 2010, he said:
If I had defiled motherhood I don’t think I could have gotten ripped any more than I did. But now it’s fascinating to me. Now they not only like it so much, they want more of it.
Then, just a few days ago, he said:
You would have thought I had defiled motherhood, the way they talked about how I ruined the game… But look what it’s done.
Ew, Bud. Just stop it. Please.
